Perrotto’s Latest
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors. Some highlights from his latest column:
- The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter. My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon. Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years. On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season. Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though. Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg‘s name in his blog today.
- Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers. I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter. I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years. Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games. His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
- Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers. The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.
Brian Anderson Trade Near?
Between Ozzie Guillen’s words and actions, it’s safe to say he does not like Brian Anderson. I don’t know if it’s BA’s attitude or something else, but he’s had his chance and he’s not getting another one with the White Sox. He did get 365 ABs last year, so you can’t say he didn’t get a legitimate shot. Anderson seemed to be making some progress offensively in July and August of ’06, but regressed in September.
Nathaniel Whalen of the Daily Southtown reads between the lines, and thinks a change of scenery might make sense here. Anderson’s minor league record is still contributing to a healthy PECOTA projection: .265/.324/.447. That’s pretty good for a CF, especially if he’s a plus defender.
In the past, the Giants and Rangers have inquired about Anderson. I feel like the Marlins did too, but can’t find a record of it. The Fish in particular can afford to let Anderson develop at the big league level. Perhaps the Padres, A’s, or Nationals would get involved as well. They haven’t been major deals, but Jim Bowden has been Kenny Williams’s most frequent trading partner over the years.
White Sox Need An Outfielder
Despite Kenny Williams’s protests to the contrary, I think the White Sox need to look externally for some outfield help. The need was there even before Scott Podsednik re-injured himself. I do believe the offense will come around, but there’s still no reason to give away outs in two outfield spots. Plus, Ozzie Guillen doesn’t seem thrilled with the idea of using Brian Anderson regularly.
If I was in charge of the club, I’d give Anderson another shot in center. Then I’d go after a guy with at least a league average bat for a left fielder (.280/.350/.450ish). I would engage in trade talks for Jacque Jones, Kevin Mench, Geoff Jenkins, Gabe Gross, Scott Hairston, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Rocco Baldelli, and Emil Brown. Hell, I’d ask about Jon Knott. Some of these would be mostly salary dumps, so the Sox could keep their top prospects. Of course you’d only acquire one of the bigger names if the price was reasonable.
Buehrle’s Stock Rising
Mark Buehrle‘s brilliant no-hitter last night still might not be enough to secure him a contract extension from the White Sox. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune certainly expects him to hit the open market after this season.
For one night at least, he looked like the Buehrle of old. And the Buehrle of old is worth a truckload of money in the current market. Buster Olney believes he’s comparable to Barry Zito, and that the Mets and Red Sox could get involved.
Most folks think Buehrle will end up joining his hometown Cardinals, which could involve a small discount. But it’s still a complete unknown here in April. We don’t want to jump the gun – Buehrle had a fantastic April in 2006 (2.57 ERA, 0.89 WHIP). A typical Buehrle season – 230 innings, sub-4 ERA – would put him in line for the best long-term free agent contract for a starter. That assumes Carlos Zambrano signs.
There are a couple of guys who would make awesome mercenaries for 2008 – John Smoltz and Curt Schilling. Smoltz probably remains a Brave if the team comes in with a somewhat fair offer, but Schilling could spark a bidding war.
White Sox Won’t Talk Contract With Future Free Agents
The White Sox decided Sunday afternoon that there will be no more contract talks. The declaration surely applies to impending free agents Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye, and Tadahito Iguchi.
Assuming Carlos Zambrano signs, Buehrle will hit the free agent market as the youngest starting pitcher. He’s got a better track record than the somewhat comparable Jason Jennings, but that comes with more mileage. Buehrle has averaged 221 innings over the past six seasons, while Jennings has averaged 180 over the past five.
Dye may vie for attention among free agent hitters like Adam Dunn, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, and Bobby Abreu. Dunn and Abreu have fairly reasonable team options, so there may only be A-Rod and Jones in Dye’s realm. Since Dye will be 34 heading into the 2008 season, he may sign a three-year deal. That’d make him the top option for teams looking to keep it under $60MM but add an impact hitter.
Iguchi will be up against Marcus Giles and Luis Castillo, most likely. He’s the steadiest performer of the three and second base isn’t as deep as last year, so he should have no problems getting around $15MM over three seasons.
The 2008 Sox could use Ryan Sweeney and Josh Fields at the outfield corners. They’ve stocked up on arms to fill Buehrle’s spot. I could see the White Sox bringing Iguchi back, but maybe they’d give second base to Pablo Ozuna failing that.
White Sox Free Agents May Walk
Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye, and Tadahito Iguchi can all become free agents after 2008. He knows that Buehrle, at least, has not negotiated with the Sox about an extension. It seems unlikely Dye or Iguchi have either. Juan Uribe could be cut loose as well; the team has a $5MM option on him.
The interesting thing about the 2008 Sox is that they can’t go completely young. Jim Thome will make $14MM. Konerko will make $12MM. Vazquez, $11.5MM. Garland, $12MM. Contreras, $10MM. Pierzynski, $5.5MM. Crede, at least $6MM and probably more. That’s a good $70-75MM locked up with seven players. I don’t anticipate a fire sale.
Unless Kenny Williams makes another brilliant signing reminiscent of Dye, he’ll have three below average offensive outfielders. Perhaps he would make a big splash with Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds, Torii Hunter, or even Ichiro.
I’m actually not concerned for their rotation. I think they’ve got solid depth for ’08.
UPDATE: Reader Mark S. writes in with a couple of good points I missed:
Remember, half of Thome’s salary is still being paid by Philadelphia, so while he may be owed $14 million, I believe the White Sox are only paying $8 million of it.
Interesting how you didn’t mention any possibility of setting themselves up for signing ARod, next season, which has been mentioned by Scott Miller of cbssportsline.
Carlos Zambrano a Met In ’08?
Ah, Big Z, always good for a quote. SI.com’s John Donovan got Carlos Zambrano talking yesterday and has an interesting column up.
Donovan describes a fan yelling "See you next year with the Yankees" to Zambrano, to which he pointed and smiled. Later asked about the Yankees, Zambrano said he didn’t see it because they have "too many rules." He seems to want to remain in the NL because of his love for hitting, and mentioned the Mets. Of course, for the right price, I’m sure the Yankees could lure him to the AL. Maybe they’d let him pinch-hit once in a while. Also, Paul Sullivan’s source said Zambrano wouldn’t mind playing for Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox after this year.
Zambrano’s next pact could approach a $16MM AAV. Donovan seems to believe he’d exceed seven years on the open market, though the Cubs and Zambrano are set at five seasons. It’s unclear whether those five seasons would include 2007.
Donovan writes that the Cubs and Zambrano are making progress on a deal for five years worth around $75-78MM. And last Sunday, BP’s John Perrotto said to look for Z to sign a deal in the $80-90MM range this week.
I think the Cubs will retain their ace; they’ve got about six days left to hammer it out. Jay Mariotti feels that a lack of a Zambrano contract would be a counterproductive distraction, yet that Zambrano would win a Cy Young. I see.
Lieber, Kim Rumors
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has some trade rumor tidbits from around baseball this morning. To summarize:
- Renck does not think the Phils truly want to use Jon Lieber as a reliever, and mentions two scenarios floating around. Lieber could be paired with Aaron Rowand and sent to the White Sox, which I would think would require at least Mike MacDougal. Would be interesting to see Liebs back in Chicago if old pals KW and "Stand Pat" Gillick can work it out. Or, he could go to Milwaukee for Kevin Mench. Such a trade would have to push Claudio Vargas to the bullpen.
- Renck says the Rockies like Mark Hendrickson despite his mediocrity and their stable of starters. The Dodgers would like to include Hendrickson as part of a bigger deal for a slugger.
- Byung-Hyun Kim to Florida is a long shot unless the Rox eat most of his $2.5MM salary. The Rocky Mountain News reiterates that the interested parties are Florida, Oakland, and Texas. You can add the Pirates to that list as well. The Bucs could also trade for Armando Benitez.
- John Thomson seems likely to be released. The A’s have been rumored.
Brewers Interested In Mackowiak
According to the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales, the Brewers have an interest in White Sox utility man Rob Mackowiak. The White Sox don’t have a lot of room in the outfield for the 30 year-old Oak Lawn native.
Gonzales writes that the Brew Crew would use Mackowiak mainly as a backup at second and third, and may be offering Brady Clark. Clark doesn’t constitute an upgrade for the Sox, so the clubs would have to keep working to find a fit. GMs Doug Melvin and Kenny Williams pulled off a major deal in December of 2004 in the Carlos Lee/Scott Podsednik swap.
The Brewers have a fantastic long-term solution at third base in Ryan Braun, if he can only learn to play credible defense.
Gammons Rumors: Qualls, Garland
In today’s blog post at ESPN.com, Peter Gammons slips in a couple of trade tidbits.
While discussing the Boston bullpen, Gammons remarks:
"They’ll keep looking at relievers on other teams — like Houston’s Chad Qualls — and figure they’ll get a mess of innings out of the starting rotation."
Gammons may be speaking in the hypothetical, but he may be implying that the Red Sox are looking into Qualls’ availability. The 28 year-old righty has been tough to hit the last two seasons, but a K/9 below 6 isn’t closer material.
Another Gammons bullet point regarding the Red Sox:
"The Red Sox were told that Jon Garland is not available. Period."
That suggests they called on him, though I’m not sure at what point. There’s something to be said for a 210 inning, 4.50 ERA guy to add some stability to the rotation. The Astros seemed inches from acquiring Garland in December, but got Jason Jennings instead.