White Sox Receive Tejada Offer
Remember when I decided to start calling Kenny Williams "spunky" based on his Javier Vazquez and Jim Thome trades? I’m starting to think I should stick with "bold," as cliche as it may be.
As I mentioned earlier on this site, the White Sox submitted two trade proposals for Miguel Tejada with a deadline of December 31st. Now the White Sox have re-entered the Tejada fray.
A rock-solid source of mine close to the White Sox tells me that the team is "lying in the weeds" and allowing the Mets, Devil Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox to beat each other up with this whole Manny/Tejada 4-way thing. The White Sox hope that the 4-way deal falls apart because it’s too complicated and too expensive. Presently, it seems that their wish will be fulfilled.
The Orioles want the Tejada deal done soon, and approached the White Sox yesterday with a proposal. The Orioles asked for Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, Ryan Sweeney, and a top pitching prospect. That unknown prospect may be a sticking point, but it can probably be worked out. Alex Woodson has been previously mentioned in discussions between the two clubs. It would be a daring move by Kenny Williams to subtract Uribe and Aaron Rowand after winning a World Series with defense as the team’s strength.
My source tells me to look for an announcement by Friday about Tejada, no matter where he ends up. The White Sox have their own motivation to wrap things up before the weekend: they’d like to have an announcement that does not conflict with a Bears playoff weekend or the Cubs Convention.
Astros Discussing Jose Contreras
First off, my apologies for the confusion in my last post. Let’s set the record straight about this Astros/White Sox thing.
My source wasn’t referring to the Astros’ interest in Miguel Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras. Baltimore likes the righthander, but Houston covets him as well. The Sox are talking to the Astros currently, but have no interest in Brad Lidge. Their reasoning: they believe in the young, cheap Bobby Jenks. The Sox also have concerns about Lidge’s future health after piling on the innings as well as his impending large salary. That all makes sense; the Sox have no reason to acquire another closer.
Another clarification: the player the Sox are considering for Contreras is Willy Taveras. The additional prospects are unknown. Given the massive salary gap between Jose Contreras and Taveras, this deal would free up cash to be used for reinforcements at the trading deadline. As mentioned before, the White Sox are willing to go up to a $105MM payroll.
Some more quality tidbits on the White Sox’s interest in Miguel Tejada:
Chicago’s offers are non-negotiable. If Tejada is traded, the deal will be completed within the next two weeks. Other interested clubs are still submitting and refining their proposals.
Miguel Tejada Trade: Update
Some more quality details on the possible Miguel Tejada trade:
First issue: White Sox payroll. My source is saying that adding Tejada would not be a problem – the team’s board of directors are willing to take the payroll up to $105 million. Should the Orioles accept one of their offers, they’ll still have flexibility for more additions at the July trading deadline as needed.
UPDATE: There was a miscommunication between my source and I about this deal. He was not telling me that the Astros were in on Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras. I’ll go into more detail on this in a separate post. Sorry for the confusion.
White Sox Make Offers For Tejada
A source close to a major sports representation firm has tipped me off to two offers the White Sox currently have on the table for shortstop Miguel Tejada.
Two formal proposals have been given to the Orioles by Sox GM Kenny Williams. Williams set a drop dead date of December 31st given other clubs’ outstanding offers for Tejada.
Option 1: Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, and one minor league prospect for Tejada.
Option 2: Brandon McCarthy, Juan Uribe, 20 year-old southpaw Alex Woodson, and another minor leaguer for Tejada. In this scenario, the White Sox would get cash back from the Orioles in the third and fourth years of Tejada’s contract.
According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense into a number of wins above a replacement player, Tejada was worth 3.1 more wins than Uribe in 2005. Contreras was valued at 5.9 wins for ’05. However, the White Sox can’t start both McCarthy and Contreras, so it’s really not a loss in pitching value for 2006. Seems to me that the Sox would much prefer Option 1 if the O’s will consider it.
U.S. Cellular inflates right-handed hitters’ home runs by about 30%. Tejada would stand to tack on about four home runs due to park effects. A loss of both Juan Uribe and Aaron Rowand would weaken one of the White Sox’s two major strengths from their Championship season: their defense. Rowand and Uribe were two of baseball’s best defenders at their positions in ’05, and Brian Anderson and Tejada would definitely be a downgrade. Still, Williams’s offseason moves and the proposed Tejada trades certainly strengthen the club overall for ’06, at least on paper.
Jon Garland Re-Signs With White Sox
A Bruce Levine radio report on ESPN Radio 1000 indicates that Jon Garland has re-signed with the White Sox for three years, $29MM. The contract is backloaded: $7MM in 2006, $10MM in 2007, and $12MM in 2008. The contract has a no-trade provision for 2006 only, so the Sox have flexibility if they don’t want to be on the hook for the final $22MM.
The deal is another excellent move by GM Kenny Williams. With any type of decent showing in 2006, Garland stood to command a five or six year deal averaging as much as $11MM annually. Perhaps the the 26 year-old simply wanted security and doesn’t expect to repeat his 2005.
The move would likely lead to a trade of Jose Contreras unless he settles for a similar contract. There has been some speculation that the Cardinals might be interested. Given that Kenny Williams is on good terms with Walt Jocketty and they speak about players regularly, it’s entirely feasible.
Astros Update: Garland, Garciaparra
Good stuff today from my main Astros guy.
First off, the Astros are talking to the White Sox about what it would take to acquire Jon Garland. It’s well known that Garland is on the market, and the Astros do have some interesting young arms that are sure to come up in the discussion. Southpaw Troy Patton had a nice run in high Class A this year, and righty Jason Hirsh righted the ship at Double A Corpus Christi. Both pitchers are very highly regarded by Baseball America. Assuming a well-rested Roger Clemens rejoins the Astros in June, the team could once again rest its playoff hopes on starting pitching.
My source also mentioned that Nomar Garciaparra has narrowed his suitors down to the Dodgers and Astros. I admit, the Astros didn’t cross my mind back in September as a possible destination for the game’s current best available free agent (Clemens excluded). I still think a two-year deal is in order.
White Sox Interested In Blalock?
In today’s Chicago Tribune, Phil Rogers lays out some options for the White Sox to further bolster their club. According to Rogers:
"The most transparent scenarios are a starter and Joe Crede to Texas for a package fronted by left-handed-hitting third baseman Hank Blalock (signed for a highly reasonable $13.7 million for the next three years with a $6.2 million option in 2009); a starter and Juan Uribe to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada—not that likely—or a starter to Baltimore for a package of young talent in a deal that makes Tejada happier about staying put.
When Williams trades one of his starters, then judge how the return stacks up against Young, not the starter traded.
Young for Blalock?
Williams’ cell phone ought to be shipped to Cooperstown if he can pull that one off."
While Garland has more of a future ahead of him, Contreras may be easier to trade. The Cuban is 34 years old, a number in which I don’t have full confidence. His contract demands won’t be as prohibitive as Garland’s. Garland is a more verified 26 years of age, so he’ll want a deal twice as long as Contreras’s. Garland is a year younger than Barry Zito, and may be a comparable pitcher despite Zito’s track record and reputation. If a 28 year-old injury prone A.J. Burnett is worth five years and $55MM, doesn’t that make Zito and Garland worth even more?
I imagine Zito and Garland could each land six-year deals through free agency. Their agents will probably start the negotiations at seven years. Garland could get 6/66 and Zito 6/72. Any team trading for one of these starters will probably want some sort of contract agreement in place before doing so. After all, the purpose of acquiring Garland or Zito is mainly to gain an exclusive chance to negotiate before the pitcher hits free agency.
Phil Rogers’s Texas Rangers scenario is a good one, given that GM Jon Daniels at least entertained offering Burnett a huge contract. The Rangers sorely lack starting pitching depth, and Hank Blalock is very expendable. Would Jon Garland and his sinker be a good fit pitching the next six years in Texas? Not really. Despite a big reduction in his overall home run rate this year, he was still right at league average in that department. His rate was higher at home, of course, and it would remain high at Ameriquest.
The average groundball to flyball ratio in the American League was 1.59 in 2005. Garland’s 1.82 mark isn’t anything special despite his sinker. Garland’s main asset is that he’s durable, making at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons. He’s never had the pressure of being anything close to the ace of a staff, and he’s had exactly one above average season. For Daniels to swap his best trading chip in Blalock for essentially six expensive years of Garland is certainly a risky proposition.
I can’t agree with Phil Rogers when he says Kenny Williams’s cell phone should go to Cooperstown for a Garland-Blalock trade. While Blalock is young and powerful, he’s obviously been greatly aided by playing in Ameriquest. He’d have that same crutch in U.S. Cellular, but is that an improvement over Joe Crede? Crede was worth one more win than Blalock in 2005, something I hope Kenny Williams is aware of.
A better swap for the Sox might be Jose Contreras for Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell. Burrell is 29 and probably has a few good seasons left in him. He knows how to draw walks, and could hit 40 HR with U.S. Cellular as a home park. Scott Podsednik would look a lot better coming off the bench than starting at a power position. Burrell has $36.5MM left on his contract over the next three years, so the Phils might have to send over $10MM to make the deal work. A swap involving Garland and Carl Crawford could also make sense, if the D-Rays think they can compete in 2007.
Javier Vazquez White Sox Projection
As I promised, I’ve got a new Javier Vazquez projection up over at RotoAuthority. This should prove to be a nice addition to the back of the Sox rotation, even with a hefty number of home runs allowed.
White Sox Obtain Javier Vazquez
In a move that took both me and Mark Gonzales by surprise, the White Sox acquired starter Javier Vazquez for center fielder Chris Young (plus the unwanted salaries of Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino). Whenever a defending World Champion makes a couple of major trades, the GM is inevitably described as "bold" in the media. I'm not sure whether I count as a member of the media, but "bold" is getting cliche. Check out some of these synonyms: spunky, audacious, gritty. I think I'll call Kenny Williams spunky when referencing the Vazquez and Thome deals.
If you're a Sox fan, you can't possibly dislike this trade. It's a classic Williams "win now" move. He's been doing this for years, dealing can't-miss prospects for all sorts of players. And why not? The White Sox have raised tons of failed #1 prospects through the years. Remember Scott Ruffcorn, Chris Snopek, Mike Caruso, Jon Rauch, and Joe Borchard?
Williams was dealing from a position of strength in center field. The 22 year-old Young was ranked #7 among White Sox prospects by Baseball America entering the 2005 season. (If you're curious, Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood, who were used in the Thome deal, ranked #8 and #19, respectively). Young is a skinny, speedy athletic guy with good power. He hit .277/.377/.545 in Double A this year and plays a mean center field. Baseball America compares him to Mike Cameron and says he'll be ready by 2007. By that time, the D-Backs' young outfield should be in full force, boasting Carlos Quentin, Young, and maybe Conor Jackson.
But the White Sox have no reason to worry about 2007. In Vazquez, the club has added a durable innings eater with solid peripheral stats. By that I mean he strikes people out and keeps the walks down. Home runs have been an issue for the last couple of years, and it ain't gettin' better at U.S. Cellular. In fact, the Cell will exacerbate the problem. Still, Vazquez can be counted on for 400 innings of at least league average pitching for the next two years, which is plenty valuable. The fact that Arizona took the washed-up Orlando Hernandez and might give the Sox some cash makes the deal look even better for Chicago.
I'll probably break out a RotoAuthority projection for Vazquez later today, but for now let's see what Bill James's minions came up with. They expect Vazquez to go 12-11 with a 3.85 ERA over 211 innings in '06. Projected WHIP is 1.25, and a 7.8 K/9 is predicted. Of course, the effects of U.S. Cellular and the AL aren't factored into that projection.
Javier Vazquez Trade Close?
With a Javier Vazquez trade supposedly close to complete, it’s been unusually hard to dig up information about the deal. Here’s the situation so far:
Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News addressed Vazquez today with just this blurb:
"Javier Vazquez, who has piqued the Mets’ interest, may be on the verge of getting shipped to the Windy City. A baseball insider suggested the White Sox are the most likely destination for the Diamondbacks pitcher, possibly leading to a trade involving Jon Garland (a free agent after the 2006 season) or Jose Contreras."
Ken Rosenthal is on the same page:
"The White Sox are making a ‘strong, under the radar’ bid to trade for Diamondbacks right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. The package of players that the Diamondbacks would receive is not known, though it could include a major-league starting pitcher — perhaps right-hander Jon Garland or Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez — and an outfield prospect such as Chris Young."
The Mets have long been mentioned as another suitor for Vazquez, and the Nationals are a dark horse.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but it doesn’t look like Vazquez will end up with either major market club.
I spoke to Chicago Tribune White Sox beat writer Mark Gonzales for his take on the rumor:
"Don’t think it’s going to happen. They had a brief chat, and nothing is on the front burner as of late last week. Garland has become a bigger concern because of the free agent market."
The takeaway? The Sox probably won’t chase Vazquez, but they’re not going to pay Garland A.J. Burnett money after this season. Look for Garland to be dealt before the trading deadline, and possibly this winter.
How about the Mets? My source close to the team tells me that some in the front office are privately scared of how Vazquez fared in the Bronx. Omar likes him, but there is a split opinion. The club is in wait and see mode, so they won’t aggressively pursue Vazquez.
One thing’s for sure – the Diamondbacks are being tight-lipped about details of the Vazquez deal. I know that Jack Magruder of the East Valley Tribune, who is close to Josh Byrnes, still doesn’t know where the righty starter is headed. Perhaps an unexpected team will emerge with the best offer, like the Tigers for example.