- Reds shortstop Zack Cozart missed the end of the season due to a knee injury, but says he expects to be healthy to start offseason workouts next month, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. It’s not clear whether he’ll be returning to the Reds, however. “You know there are going to be rumors,” Cozart says. “I dealt with it at the Trade Deadline, and it was weird. Just like with [Jay Bruce], the Reds are all I’ve ever known. Hearing your name in rumors or possible trade scenarios is weird.” The 31-year-old Cozart has one year remaining before he’s eligible for free agency, and the Reds might benefit from clearing a regular spot for Jose Peraza to play. Cozart’s consistently strong defense and modest pop (he batted .252/.308/.425 with 16 homers in 508 plate appearances in 2016) ought to attract at least some trade interest, should the Reds go that route.
Reds Rumors
Reds’ Dick Williams On Offseason Plans
Here’s GM Dick Williams on the Reds’ offseason plans, via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and the Cincinnati Enquirer’s C. Trent Rosecrans:
- The Reds don’t figure to be big players on the free agent market, Williams says. To the extent that they do open their wallets, it could be on relief help. “I could see spending some money on the bullpen,” Williams says. The Reds’ 2016 ’pen was among the game’s worst, with a 5.09 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 for the season, so adding there would seem to be a convenient way to upgrade for a team not looking to spend heavily.
- The team could also attempt to add bench players and perhaps a veteran starter to complement Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan and Dan Straily. Williams reiterates, though, that the team won’t be looking for a high-end player, and names Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, Amir Garrett and Tim Adleman as candidates to take over the fifth spot.
- If the team uses Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen in its bullpen after both had strong 2016 seasons, it will do so with the goal of “maximizing their innings,” Williams says. “[I]f you do put them in the bullpen, it’s not going to be with the intent of making them one-inning guys. They’re too talented for that.”
- With much of its former veteran core (such as Todd Frazier, Aroldis Chapman and Jay Bruce) already having departed in trades, the Reds don’t figure to be big players on the trade market, either, Williams says. “We’ll always continue to be opportunistic as a team in our place in the lifecycle has got to be, [but] I don’t think we’ll be terribly active.”
- The team will chat with second baseman Brandon Phillips to see whether he might waive his full no-trade clause. The Reds attempted to deal Phillips to the Nationals last winter, but he turned that deal down. Phillips recently said he hasn’t strongly considered whether he’d accept a trade. Should he depart, the team would have Jose Peraza and/or Dilson Herrera ready to replace him. The team could also use Peraza at shortstop, which means they’ll have to make a determination about their incumbent at that position, Zack Cozart. (MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained that finding everyday roles for Peraza and Herrera should be one of the Reds’ top priorities this winter.)
- The Reds could also look for a bit of catching help in case Devin Mesoraco’s recovery from hip surgery doesn’t go smoothly.
Reds To Retain Bryan Price For 2017
The Reds have announced that skipper Bryan Price will return as the team’s manager for the 2017 season. His new deal includes a club option for 2018, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets.
Per the team, all of the coaches have also been offered contracts as well. At this point, it seems, it’s not yet clear whether any will choose instead to seek opportunities elsewhere.
Price had originally been signed to a three-year deal upon taking over the staff. That pact was set to expire just days from now, at the end of the 2016 season. Price had previously served as the Cincinnati pitching coach under then-skipper Dusty Baker before taking the helm when his predecessor was fired.
Clearly, the 54-year-old Price isn’t being retained for delivering wins. The rebuilding Reds have compiled an awful 207-276 record over his three seasons in the dugout. Still, it would be hard to blame him for failing to deliver results with the rosters he has been handed.
The organization evidently felt that Price has succeeded in other areas of importance. Certainly, he has overseen some bright spots in spite of the general difficulties. And the club’s brass has suggested that the win-loss record wouldn’t determine Price’s fate, with his ability to oversee growth from the team’s young players representing the top priority. Though it was reported recently that a final decision hadn’t been made, the Walt Jocketty-Dick Williams front office duo evidently decided since that time to entrust the club to Price for at least one more run.
Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds
After the season concludes, we’ll be looking at every team in the league in depth with MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series. For the time being, though, we’re taking preliminary big-picture looks at what some of the non-contending clubs will need to focus on as part of our Three Needs series.
Let’s jump to the National League Central to look at what the rebuilding Reds will be looking to accomplish this winter, though the usual “three needs” designation may not quite fit in this case. While the Reds have quite a few needs, they theoretically already have the young talent on hand to address at least some of these problems — now it’s just a matter of which youngsters emerge, fall back or are still a year or two away.
1. Find regular roles for Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera. These two are slated to be Cincinnati’s shortstop and second baseman of the future, and the future could begin now if incumbents Zack Cozart or Brandon Phillips are dealt. Peraza has also seen time in left and center, so there’s some value in using him around the diamond as a Ben Zobrist-esque super-utility player in order to get him in the lineup virtually every day, if a singular position can’t be opened up.
Cozart received a lot of interest at the trade deadline in the wake of his above-average hitting numbers in the first half (.267/.316/.482 in 335 PA), though the Reds couldn’t find a trade partner. He then went ice-cold in August and September, so while Cozart may not quite have turned a corner at the plate, he still provides outstanding glovework at a key defensive position. Cozart will get a pretty modest bump from his $2.925MM salary in 2016 via his third and final year of arbitration eligibility, so he’ll surely get some renewed trade interest this winter from teams looking to upgrade themselves at least defensively at shortstop. Cozart certainly looks like the Reds’ likeliest veteran trade chip, given that their other high-priced vets have major injury issues (Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco) or full no-trade clauses (Phillips, Joey Votto).
Phillips already rejected one proposed trade to the Nationals last offseason since the Nats didn’t agree to a contract extension. It’s now even more unlikely that a trade suitor will talk extension, in the wake of Phillips’ below-average year both offensively and defensively. In a recent interview, Phillips didn’t sound much more open to waiving his trade protection, so unless (or until) he consents to a deal, the Reds could make the big move of having both Phillips and Herrera compete for the second base job in Spring Training. This could leave Phillips as a very expensive bench piece, or the Reds could explore moving him to third if Herrera indeed takes over at second.
Of course, Eugenio Suarez has established himself at the hot corner, and it would seem a curious move to displace a 25-year-old for a 35-year-old nearing the end of his tenure with the club. Keep in mind, however, that the Reds have Nick Senzel (the second overall pick of the 2016 draft) earmarked as their third baseman of the future. With injuries and NTCs preventing the Reds from shopping most of their veterans, Suarez would be an interesting alternative trade candidate. He’s coming off a 20-homer season and is still a pre-arbitration player, though with only 2.2 fWAR combined in 2015-16, Cincy probably isn’t looking at Suarez as a member of its next contending team. Speaking of which, the Reds also need to…
2. Figure out which position players are keepers. Don’t count on the Reds acquiring anything more than veteran position player depth, as the bulk of their offseason and Spring Training time should be spent deciding on who amongst their interesting crop of young players projects as a long-term piece.
Billy Hamilton took some small but credible steps forward as an offensive player this season. Hamilton’s speed and outstanding center field glove are worthy of everyday duties anyway, though becoming even an average hitter would make Hamilton into a major threat. Tucker Barnhart’s pitch-framing and defense is a work in progress, though he can hit well enough to handle the position until the Reds know if Mesoraco is healthy enough to continue on behind the plate.
All-Star Adam Duvall emerged as a big power threat and a surprisingly strong left field defender, though he’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his on-base percentage. Scott Schebler posted some solid numbers and looks like he can, at least, serve as the left-handed hitting side of a platoon in right field. Big-hitting prospect Jesse Winker is knocking on the door for a callup and has been seen time at both corner outfield spots. Winker is also a left-handed hitter so he’s not ideal as a platoon partner with Schebler, though one would suspect Cincinnati would give Winker the first crack at everyday duties once he gets the call to the bigs.
3. Continue sorting out the pitching, with a focus on the bullpen. The Reds went into 2016 with about as unsettled a pitching situation as possible, and it resulted in a new Major League record for most homers allowed in a season. While Anthony DeSclafani, Dan Straily and Brandon Finnegan need to drastically cut down on the long balls, all three have claimed rotation jobs for next season. Bailey will join them if healthy, though that’s a big “if” given how he’s faced somewhat of a bumpy recovery from Tommy John surgery. There are plenty of candidates in the mix for the fifth starter’s job, with former top prospect Robert Stephenson tentatively in the lead, though he didn’t impress in his first taste of big league action. Cody Reed, Keyvius Sampson, John Lamb, Tim Adleman and highly-touted prospect Amir Garrett will also be competing. A minor trade wouldn’t be out of the question given the number of arms on hand, though given that the rotation is hardly set in stone, the Reds might want to keep as much depth as possible.
Losers of the rotation battle could help out the league-worst bullpen. There is some hope at the back of the pen, with the combination of Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen standing out as an intriguing closer/setup man pairing. Beyond those two, there’s really nowhere to go but up given how poorly the Cincy relief corps performed in 2016. If the Reds target anything in free agency, it could be a veteran reliever or two (on a short-term or minor league contract) just to add some stability. If these relievers pitch well, the Reds could potentially flip them at the deadline.
Reds Claim Patrick Kivlehan
The Reds have claimed utilityman Patrick Kivlehan off waivers from the Padres, the Cincinnati organization announced. Kivlehan had been designated for assignment by San Diego.
Entering the year, the 26-year-old had spent his entire professional career in the Mariners organization, moving steadily up the ladder but never having earned a big league promotion. That all changed with a wild 2016 campaign for the former fourth-round draft pick.
Kivlehan is now on to his fourth team of the year with today’s claim. In between his time in Seattle and his forthcoming stint with Cinci, he saw action in the Rangers and Padres organizations. The latter of those afforded him his first big league opportunity, with Kivlehan logging four hits (including one home run) in his first 19 plate appearances.
For most of this year, Kivlehan has played at Triple-A with his various teams. In 397 total plate appearances, he owns a .254/.302/.416 batting line with 12 home runs. Since beginning his pro career as a third baseman, Kivlehan has increasingly spent time also in the corner outfield as well as at first base.
Cincinnati Reds: Top 5 Bright Spots Of 2016
Rebuilding season or not, falling short of the playoffs and finishing with a losing record probably means that more things went wrong than went right for a team. This series, however, will focus on those silver linings that each team can take away from an otherwise disappointing season.
[Related: “Top Bright Spots” archive]
Here are the biggest bright spots for the Cincinnati Reds.
1. Joey Votto, 1B
Votto had already proven in 2015 that he was still in the prime of his career, bouncing back from an injury-riddled and much less productive than normal season in 2014 by posting a 1.000 OPS in 158 games. Entering his age-32 season with eight years and $199MM remaining on his contract, any decline in performance would be alarming.
But Votto has not declined one bit. With an overall .974 OPS, including a ridiculous 1.103 OPS over his last 447 plate appearances, there’s no reason to believe he will slow down anytime soon. That’s great news for a Reds team that hopes to jump back into playoff contention while their star player is still worth every cent of his massive contract. (As a side note, Votto hit his 28th home run quite literally seconds before this post was published — his third hit in a 3-for-3 evening.)
2. Raisel Iglesias/ Michael Lorenzen, RP
While Iglesias and Lorenzen have pitched as well as could’ve been expected out of the bullpen, if not better—Iglesias has been dominant (1.37 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, four saves, seven holds) and Lorenzen has been very good (2.87 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, eight holds)—they needed to prove that they could stay healthy. After all, they’re both pitching out of the bullpen because of durability concerns.
They’ve done their part—Iglesias has appeared in 29 games as a reliever since returning from the disabled list in late June; Lorenzen returned shortly after and has appeared in 33 games. Both are on track to finish the season in good health. Now, it’s up to the Reds to decide if either returns to starting in 2017 or remains in a late-inning bullpen role. That’s a much better alternative than wondering if either will be healthy enough to contribute at all.
3. Adam Duvall, OF
Despite his second-half struggles, the 28-year-old Duvall has proven himself on multiple levels in 2016. His power surge in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League (53 homers in 831 plate appearances in 2014-15) was obviously not a fluke. Yesterday’s multi-homer game, his third of the season, pushed his season total to 33. He also reached the 100-RBI mark.
While a sub-.300 on-base percentage and high strikeout total for a third baseman-turned corner outfielder would initially suggest a one-dimensional player, the NL All-Star has actually been a well above-average defender in left field in the view of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Combine that with his bargain salary—he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2018 season—and defensive versatility, and the Reds may have found themselves a gem.
4. Dan Straily, SP
Despite a solid 34-start stint to begin his MLB career in 2012-13 while with the A’s (3.94 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.3 K/9), Straily hasn’t been given much of a chance to stick in a big league rotation. After being traded three times in less than two years, the 27-year-old has finally found a home with the Reds, who plucked him off the waiver wire just before the start of the 2016 season.
Since being inserted into the starting rotation on April 18, the right-hander has delivered a 3.76 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.5 K/9 and a 63% quality start percentage over his 30 starts. So, basically, he’s a well-traveled version of the guy the A’s had when his value was on the rise early in his career. Straily might be staying put for awhile this time. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season.
5. Billy Hamilton, CF
It was pretty much the same old story for Hamilton early in the 2016 season. The most feared base stealer in baseball was not reaching base enough for it to matter very much. After failing to reach base at a 30 percent clip in either of his first two big league seasons, Hamilton went into the All-Star break with an uninspiring .283 OBP.
But if his second-half performance is any indication—the 26-year-old posted a .369 OBP with 21 walks in 197 plate appearances before a season-ending oblique injury in early September—the days of 100 stolen base seasons might not be permanently behind us. In fact, Hamilton’s 36 stolen bases in 45 games would put him right on pace with Rickey Henderson’s single-season record of 130. Not that Hamilton could match Henderson’s .398 OBP over a full season, but you get the idea. Hamilton could conceivably steal 100 if he can somehow manage a jump into the .325-.340 OBP range.
Brandon Phillips On Future
Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips took advantage of his no-trade clause last winter to block a deal to the Nationals. If the Reds attempt to move Phillips again during the upcoming offseason, the 35-year-old isn’t sure which approach he’ll take.
“That one thing that’s not really on my mind. I’m just trying to finish the season strong and whatever happens, happens. I can’t really control what’s going on, what the Reds want or what I want,” Phillips told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “All I know is I want to finish strong for this team. I’m still a Red. I’m happy. I still have another year on my contract and I’m happy with that. You never know what the future really holds. Just look at the present and enjoy it while you can.”
When the Nationals pursued Phillips, he had two years and $27MM remaining on his contract, but the three-time All-Star was only willing to approve a move to Washington if it came with an extension. Phillips’ refusal to relocate to the nation’s capital has worked out well for the Nats, whose fallback plan was to sign ex-Met Daniel Murphy in free agency. In the first year of a $36MM contract that runs through 2018, Murphy has enjoyed an elite-level season, having batted an astounding .347/.391/.596 with 25 home runs in 581 plate appearances for a playoff-bound club.
With his .290/.321/.418 line in 566 PAs, Phillips hasn’t been nearly as effective as Murphy this year, but the longest-tenured Red has totaled double-digit home runs and steals (11 apiece) for the ninth time. He has also slashed .336/.356/.486 in 223 second-half trips to the plate, which could lead to offseason interest from teams looking for a capable stopgap at the keystone. Of course, that might come down to whether Phillips would be open to playing out his deal for $13MM in 2017 without an extension from an acquiring club. It’s possible Phillips would sign off on a trade to a contender, as he told Sheldon that winning a World Series is among his main goals.
“The reason we all play this game is to win a championship,” he said.
Phillips certainly won’t be part of a World Series champion next year in Cincinnati, which is amid a rebuild. In the event the Reds trade Phillips over the winter and end their 11-year relationship with him, they have a pair of replacement candidates on hand in Dilson Herrera and Jose Peraza – both of whom are 22. Herrera hasn’t yet debuted with the Reds since they acquired him from the Mets for outfielder Jay Bruce at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, while Peraza has batted a solid .327/.349/.423 with 16 steals over 218 PAs this season.
Zack Cozart Sidelined By Knee Soreness
- While the Reds aren’t officially ruling out shortstop Zack Cozart from returning this year, he is shut down for the moment, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Cozart is battling a sore knee, which is somewhat additionally concerning because he missed much of last year after requiring surgery on the joint. The 31-year-old was nearly dealt at the trade deadline, and still remains prime candidate to change hands this winter, but the second half of the year hasn’t exactly boosted his value. After a highly productive first half, the slick-fielding shortstop has limped to a .223/.291/.312 batting line with just two home runs over his last 173 trips to the plate. The tepid finish will also impact Cozart’s arbitration earning power; he’ll be entering his final arb year looking to build off of a $2.925MM salary.
Reds Still Hoping For Several Key Players To Return From Injury
- The Reds are still hoping for the returns of several key injured players, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Zack Cozart (knee soreness), Billy Hamilton (oblique strain), Homer Bailey (biceps tenderness) and Cody Reed (back tightness) are all currently unavailable, but of the four, only Reed has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Bailey threw a bullpen session Sunday, and Cozart and Hamilton are both rehabbing their injuries. Of course, there’s little time left for them to return, and manager Bryan Price characterizes the likelihood of a Hamilton return as “improbable,” but he wants to keep the door open. “The easy thing is to shut down — that’s the easiest thing in the world is to shut everyone down,” says Price. “However, that’s not a culture that we really want to build here. … And unless these guys are deemed incapable of playing, they should be working hard to get back on the field and I think they are.”
Reds Place Billy Hamilton, Cody Reed On DL
The Reds announced this morning that outfielder Billy Hamilton and left-hander Cody Reed have been placed on the disabled list due to a left oblique injury and lower back spasm, respectively. The moves are retroactive to Sept. 5, but given the fact that rosters are currently expanded, the DL placements likely end the season for the pair of promising young talents. Hamilton, who turned 26 a week ago, enjoyed what has been his best overall season at the Major League level in 2016, hitting .260/.321/.343 in 460 plate appearances. While those numbers certainly don’t stand out, especially not when considering Hamilton’s home park, the .321 OBP is a career-best and represents a marked step forward for a player that posted just a .285 on-base percentage from 2014-15. Of course, he’s also a top-flight defender (13 runs above average per both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating) and the game’s best baserunner (he easily leads the league with 12.9 runs above average on the basepaths, per Fangraphs). Though he’s dealt with some bumps and bruises this year, things are pointing up for Hamilton as he reaches arbitration eligibility this fall. As for the 23-year-old Reed, his debut campaign wasn’t quite what he might’ve hoped. He did manager to strike out 8.1 batters per nine innings, against 3.6 walks, but compiled only a 7.36 ERA over 47 2/3 frames in ten starts. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to earn a rotation spot out of camp for 2017.
