Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t going anywhere. The Blue Jays have formally announced a 14-year contract extension for their superstar first baseman, one that guarantees the four-time All-Star a whopping $500MM from 2026-39. He’d previously been slated to become a free agent following the 2025 season. The contract does not contain any deferred money or opt-out opportunities but does provide Guerrero with a full no-trade clause, setting the stage for him to spend his entire career in Toronto. Guerrero is represented by PRIME.
Notably, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the $500MM will come in the form of a whopping $325MM signing bonus, paid out in annual installments over his contract’s 14-year term, with the remaining $175MM constituting his salary. That doesn’t change the luxury-tax picture for the Blue Jays, but it does provide tax benefits to Guerrero. Signing bonuses are taxed based on a player’s official residence, and although Guerrero plays his home games in Toronto, he’s legally a Florida resident, where there’s no state income tax. Further, Rosenthal rightly points out that signing bonuses are paid out even in the event of a potential labor stoppage, whereas player salaries could be withheld or prorated. Effectively, the mammoth signing bonus provides Guerrero an avenue and safety net to take home as much of that mammoth guarantee as possible.
It’s the second-largest deal in MLB history by measure of net present value, trailing only Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765MM contract with the Mets. While Shohei Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers was originally reported as a historic 10-year, $700MM deal, the overwhelming slate of deferred money — $68MM annually — knocked the contract’s present-day value down to between $438MM and $461MM. Guerrero’s $35.714MM average annual value is technically the 12th-largest AAV in baseball history, although once factoring in deferrals in the contracts of Alex Bregman and Blake Snell, Guerrero could sneak into the top 10 with that hefty mark.
Guerrero rather famously set a deadline of the start of spring training that came and went without a deal. He left the door cracked for an agreement, however, stating that while he no longer planned to participate in back-and-forth negotiations, he’d listen to any offers the team presented and leave any contract talk to his agents. In the aftermath of that soft deadline, specifics regarding Guerrero’s asking price and a new, stronger offer from the Blue Jays came to light.
It’s not entirely uncommon for contract talks to continue beyond self-imposed deadlines if the sides are close enough, with Garrett Crochet standing as a notable recent example of a player who set a deadline (in his case, Opening Day) for extension talks before ultimately signing after said deadline had passed. Jackson Merrill, Ketel Marte, Brandon Pfaadt, and Kristian Campbell are among the other players to have signed extensions since the season began who presumably opened negotiations with their clubs during spring training.
Both previous talks between the sides and reports regarding the latest framework have centered around a 14-year pact. That’s a reflection of Guerrero’s youth, as he only just turned 26 years old last month. It’s a somewhat similar situation to that of Soto, who hit free agency right around his 26th birthday. Given his youth and talent, he was able to parlay a frenzied free agency into a record-shattering 15-year deal worth $765MM.
Prior to Soto moving the goalposts, the reported $500MM value of the deal Guerrero and the Jays are discussing would have been a record-breaking deal. As already noted, Ohtani’s ten-year deal is valued quite differently when weighing for deferred money; the MLBPA pegs his net-present annual value at $43.78MM, while the league itself posits a $46.06MM number. Ballparking the guarantee around $450MM was still a record at the time, with Mookie Betts and his $365MM holding the previous top guarantee. Ohtani’s overall guarantee and AAV both fell to a distant second with the Soto deal, and now Guerrero can now lay claim to passing him as well, given the lack of deferred money in his half-billion-dollar guarantee.
Guerrero’s track record isn’t quite as elite as that of Soto, who is in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s peak seasons. Even so, his numbers are excellent and he’s only a year older. When Guerrero is at his best, he’s the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability.
For the Jays, Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for a long time. After the club’s postseason appearances in 2015 and 2016, they entered a quick rebuild period that saw them post losing records for the next three years. As such, many fans rested their hopes on an emerging core headlined by young prospects like Guerrero and Bo Bichette.
Guerrero’s initial major league work was good but not great, though it came at an age when most prospects are still playing in college or in the minors. He hit .269/.336/.442 over the 2019 and 2020 seasons for a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than league average at the plate. To be holding his own in the big leagues during his age-20 and -21 seasons was still a notable accomplishment, even if he wasn’t immediately playing at All-Star levels.
Any doubts about Guerrero’s ability to reach the ceiling he flashed as a prospect were quelled in 2021, as he hit 48 home runs, drew walks at a 12.3% clip and only struck out 15.8% of the time. His .311/.401/.601 batting line led to a wRC+ of 166. He would have won the American League Most Valuable Player award that year, if not for an absurd two-way season from Ohtani. Instead, he finished runner-up.
Guerrero couldn’t quite carry that MVP-caliber offensive output over into his next two seasons. He hit a combined .269/.341/.462 in 2022 and 2023 for a 125 wRC+. While that’s still strong production, it’s obviously a drop from his 2021 campaign, and 2023 in particular cast him as closer to pedestrian than superstar as he posted a 118 wRC+ with just 1.3 fWAR. Fortunately, Guerrero helped to quell his doubters when he cranked things back up last year, slashing .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ and finishing sixth in a crowded AL MVP field.
Taken in totality, the four years beginning with Guerrero’s 2021 breakout saw him produce a .293/.370/.517 batting line with a 10.2% walk rate and just a 15.2% strikeout rate. That’s 45% better than league-average after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment, by measure of wRC+. And, as Guerrero’s minuscule strikeout rate indicates, he’s hardly just a one-dimensional slugger. He has some of the game’s best contact skills and pitch recognition, and he consistently delivers elite rankings in batted-ball metrics like exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
That’s not to say that there is no risk. Despite a 2022 Gold Glove Award, Guerrero’s defense is generally viewed as questionable and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. On any kind of massive deal like this, the signing club probably knows it won’t look pristine all the way to the final season, as the Tigers and Angels could tell you about their deals for Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. The Jays will be hoping that they get piles of value from Guerrero’s prime years, both in terms of on-field and off-field value, in order to ease the pain of his eventual decline phase.
Certainly, it would have been cheaper to extend Guerrero earlier in his career, as players generally gain earning power as they get closer to free agency. However, Guerrero’s oscillating results perhaps gave the Jays pause about making a significant commitment to him. From Guerrero’s perspective, he was an incredibly talented prospect who received a hefty signing bonus and quickly put himself on track to reach free agency at such a young age. That gave him ample incentive to bet on himself, which presumably made finding a price amenable to both sides rather challenging.
The stars have aligned recently. Guerrero’s 2024 season seemed to prove that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. Meanwhile, the Jays have attempted to secure mega deals with other players and fallen short. They were heavily tied to Ohtani, Soto, Roki Sasaki and plenty of other players who would have been headline-grabbing acquisitions, but none on those pursuits panned out. Prior to today’s extension of Guerrero, the largest deal in franchise history was George Springer’s $150MM guarantee on a six-year pact, which is now more than four years old. With president/CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins both nearing the ends of their respective contracts and the Jays disappointing in 2024, it has been suggested they are under pressure for a big public relations victory.
The inability to close deals with marquee free agents like Soto, Ohtani and Corbin Burnes (among others) left the Jays with plenty of future payroll space to commit to Guerrero. Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Chad Green are all free agents at season’s end. After 2026, Springer, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho are slated to hit the open market. José Berríos is under contract through 2028, but has an opt-out after 2026. Anthony Santander will have an opt-out chance after 2027. Andrés Giménez and Alejandro Kirk could be the two players making notable money still on the team by 2028 if those opt-out clauses are exercised, and Guerrero is the only player on the books beyond 2030.
The Guerrero extension takes the projected top free agent off next year’s market, leaving Kyle Tucker as the clear top bat available. Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami will reportedly be posted ahead of his age-26 season, adding an interesting and likely very expensive wild card to the position-player market.
On the pitching side, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Michael King will be some of the most attractive names. That will be a tough development for fans of other clubs but it could be a huge benefit to those other free agents, especially Tucker, who will become the uncontested best free agent hitter available in a market that looks increasingly starved for impact offense without Guerrero at the top.
Dominican journalist Mike Rodriguez first broke the news that the two sides were closing in on a deal worth at least $500MM. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale added that it was over a term of 14 years. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported that an agreement was in place and that there were no deferrals, while his colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith added that the contract did not contain opt-out language. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Guerrero’s no-trade clause.
Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images.
If completed, will go down as one of the worst contracts EVER!
Yeah I’m making progress towards one of those baconator’s.
Half a billion to remain the status quo. Ouch.
Not even close.
Love the player, hate the contract.
I call these the cell phone contracts. The cell phone company will give you a free phone and you’re happy for the first 2 to 3 years, but then after a few more years, you realize you’re paying a large monthly rate for a 5+ year-old phone. Everyone around you has a new phone, but you’re still paying on an outdated device. Worse, then you trade it in and absorb the cost in your new phone contract……
😝 great analogy
$325 in a signing bonus paid over the life of the deal… So they deferred the bonus!? GENIUS.
@Wade I see you deferred reading the article….
They just labeled a portion of his annual salary as a signing bonus for his benefit in regards to tax burden.
Hehe nice. Yeah I get it just interesting that he essentially gets a bonus every year. If they call it a signing bonus it should be paid in full at signing.
Yeah I’d have thought it had to be paid at time of signing til reading this.
That’ll be the Soto deal in a few years.
Soto at least has a very good eye so I can see him aging better, but overall agree. Neither will look good when they’re in their 30s.
Both of them will be first ballot hall of famers.
Agreed 100%
Way too for Vladdy the fatty!
RobM:
Soto won’t be good in his 30s? That’s ridiculous. If you’re saying his late 30s OK but when he’s 31 he’s not going to be good? I don’t get it.
Well look at is this way he has 15 years to get that gold glove he was talking about recently.
If Soto/Boras trip their opt out after his age-30 season, the Mets should let him leave. Then it will be a great deal for them. They’ll likely get his last peak years.
Maybe not
Joey Votto had as good an eye as Soto and his contract aged very poorly. And it was a lot smaller. The Mets will be lucky to get 4 good years out of him.
4 good years? So you’re saying Soto will decline by age 30? Whaaat
Soto reminds me at lot of Cano, which means his hitting should be elite until 35ish. By then, Soto will have long been assigned to a DH role. But, then again, the Mets didn’t sign him for his fielding ability. In the end, Soto will outperform Vlad but he’s also likely going to make $305 million more in compensation. So it’s not exactly an apples to apples contract comparison.
Votto did not age poorly. He was one of the best hitters in the game at age 37. Most guys are retired by then. He had some down years in his mid-30s, but he aged better than most.
Did he age like the steroid era players? Of course not. Nobody does. And no, Soto and Guerrero won’t be playing at 40, but their teams know that… those later years are just unofficially deferred money.
@smuzqwpdmx – I could definitely see Soto playing till 40. Over the next 10 years if he average 30 homeruns that would put him around 502 homeruns so he could possibly be chasing 600 by the time he’s 40.
Votto’s contract did not age poorly. His last couple years weren’t up to Joey Votto standards but that was one of the better 10 year contracts that has been given out. It wasn’t a bad contract, it was just a large contract for a team that doesn’t spend enough money to be able to compete year in and year out.
If the Reds would have upped the payroll by 20 or 30 million and went out and got Votto help nobody would bat an eye at that contract. Votto was worth every penny the Reds gave him and I’m happy I got to watch him play in a Reds uniform as long as I did.
Albert Pujols is a first ballot HOFer. Would you like his Angels contract?
Cano? A PED user? Not a good comp in my book.
Joey Votto’s contract was a huge success for the Reds.
Many players declined significantly at age 30. Look at Soto’s #5 comparison through age 25 on BR Andruw Jones.. He fell off a cliff at age 30. It’s not a guarantee that Soto will too, there are no guarantees in life anyway, but it just proves that the precedent is there for it to happen. And of Soto’s 1-4 comps of Harper, Frank Robinson, Trout, and Griffey, only Robinson didn’t fall off somewhat at age 30. The others were injury related, but it still happened.
Soto is more than likely already 30.
Who cares? The Hall of Fame is so watered-down now, it means nothing.
Uh, Joey Votto was one of the most successful mega-deals. He outperformed his contract.
Rob – While I agree with you on Vlad, I disagree on Soto as he’s always been in tremendous shape.
Take 5 years off of the Cardinals and add it to the Angels contract and yes I would take it in a heart beat. Pujols signed his Angels contract after year 11 and not year 6.
dewey – I agree with you.
Unlike Cano and Vlad’s BFF Tatis, I don’t believe Vlad is using PED’s. He wasn’t born into that culture, he was born in Canada and I truly believe he has been clean his entire career.
I’m not worried about gold gloves in right field. It’s about his hitting
hiflew:
Yes, let’s throw out random players like Joey Votto and say how he aged is how Soto will age. Sheesh.
Votto did not age poorly.
====================
‘Poorly’ is overstating it, but his career mostly ended at age 34, like most players. Votto had a 4.3 cumulative bWAR over his final 5 years.
Mike – Agreed!
And FTR Soto was nominated for a GG last year.
Vlad doesn’t strike out as other sluggers and takes his walks he will be fine
How many World Series rings does he have ? Even playoff appearances? Huge success ??
@letit The HOF currently has enshrined roughly 1.5% of MLB players who ever played. In 1970 the H9F had enshrined roughly 1.5% of all MLB player to have played by that time. Statistically speaking it’s not watered down compared to decades past.
How is the HOF watered down? Less than 300 players in it, some of them due to contributions to the game other than their playing days. That’s out of what 25,000 players who have debuted in the past 150 years?
Fever: Unfortunately GG are not picked strictly on defense. For some stupid reason they also add on offense which has nothing to do with a player’s defense.
avenger – I know defensive stats are highly questionable, but I’ve used them because it’s better than nothing ….. Soto was Top 3 in several FG defensive categories, he deserved the nomination.
they also add on offense
==========================
We may have reached the tipping point where offense is more important than defense when choosing a GG. Vlad and Soto recently received nominations, and they should be DH’s.
Jeter won 5, and he arguably the worst fielding SS in the league.
Four of the last five years were very bad and 2018 really wasnt a good year, not for someone paid to be a run producer. I would call it a bad year as well but then I’d get responses about his WAR being 3 and his WRC+ 130. But it wasn’t a good year for the contract. So i’m not sure how that contract was a good one when half the years weren’t good.
It’s an NHL style contract. We will see whether years 12-14 have any significant money in there or if it’s just a AAV dampening amount such as $15M/yr. By 2037, $15M/year will be similar to a backup catcher price.
Soto doesn’t get paid for his glove.
hiflew is really out in left field. Votto signed at 30 years old and was only as good as Soto at ages that are yet to come for Soto.
Rafael Palmiero won a Gold Glove in a season he played something like 18 games in the field. He was a DH. Barry Bonds won a Gold Glove in a season he was one of the worst defensive LF in baseball by every measure. Its nothing but a popularity contest.
You can always tell the people that don’t know anything about baseball because they are the ones touting GG as a measure of how good a player was on defense.
Yeah, No. Soto was not good in any defensive stats on FanGraphs or any other site last season. He was mediocre in DRS. Below average in OAA and FRV.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qua…
Rafael Palmiero won a GG at 1B while he WAS a DH most of the season. Its has been a joke for a very long time.
Yeah Votto did. But Soto’s contract is for six times as much as much money. Do you think he is going to be six times better than Votto?
hiflew:
Oh dear God, why do you keep citing Joey Votto? What does he have to do with?
Donut sales triple in Toronto
Pads – That was 1999, try harder.
These days FG and other analytics are factored into voting.
There was no FG in 1999, in fact the internet was still in it’s infancy that year.
Pads – Again, take your time and do some actual thinking before calling people out. It’s like you’re the West Coast equivalent of Joel..
THIS TIME you screwed up by filtering on OF instead of RF.
Gold Glove does NOT nominate the Top 9 of all outfielders.
Gold Glove nominates THREE FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL OUTFIELD POSITION.
Use the proper filter and you will see Soto was Top 3 for RF.
Sheesh.
The problem isn’t that Soto won’t be good, the problem is that Soto will probably be merely good, and merely good only for the first half of his 30s despite making $51m a year.
People en masse seem to forget that Soto’s been worth more than 5 bWAR only twice since he got to the majors.
An excellent player? To be sure.
Elite? No. And it’s not close. He’s nowhere near where Judge, Ohtani, Betts, Trout were / are at their peaks, not when guys like Semien, Chapman, and a dozen others have matched him win for win since 2019.
At 31 he’ll almost certainly be a DH, only. A slow DH at that given he’s already very slow at 26, well below the league average, and there’s no compelling reason he’ll be more than a 3 WAR DH at that point. There’s nothing about him that suggests he’ll defy the aging curve for many years, which typically involves being elite at a premium defensive position, CF Willie Mays.
There’s also no reason to think he’ll have an extended peak or that at age 36 he’ll be worth even the DH slot when his most similar players, one-dimensional guys albeit sensational hitters like Dick Allen, were done as of 32 and 33.
Agreed, wholeheartedly. Getting the heart of Soto’s career for c. 5/265m where he was good enough to opt away from something like the remaining 10/500m?
Won’t happen, unfortunately. Soto would need to be at least a projectable 10 win player for 2030 to think he’d be in line for an Ohtani or Judge or Trout contract at 31 PLUS significant salary inflation, when Soto has nothing like the breadth of skills required to be a regular 10 win player.
The Mets stuck themselves with Soto for the full fifteen. Stearns is a good enough GM that taking away his ability to allot $51m a year for however long he lasts working for Cohen was a significant mistake. For a weak GM like Cashman, it made sense. There was good reason until last year that Cashman hadn’t made it to the WS since 2009. For Stearns, having flexibility year to year is a significant plus. For Cashman it’s a drawback.
Except Soto’s nothing like Cano. Cano played an up the middle defensive position and was elite there–as a result his peak 7 years, 46 WAR, far outpaced Soto. Soto plays a plonking corner OF, and is so slow he rates to be ‘backup catcher slow’ by his early 30s, further limiting his value. .
None of Soto’s closest comps were elite past 33. The Mets will be lucky if he’s not in significant decline as of 31.
@smuz That ignores that Votto had just two elite SEASONS after age 29.
That he had a dead cat bounce at 37 was nice for Reds fans, but from ages 34-39 he was worth a lineup slot only in 2018 and 2021.
LMFAO. How about you get educated about baseball.
The market for pastries is fecund. It is overflowing. Very robust.
FPG, try that garbage on someone that doesn’t understand baseball.
Soto was below league average on defense by DRS (-1) and bad by OAA (-5), FRV (-4), and -5.9 dWAR.
Below average or bad defenders do not belong in the voting for the GG at all.
Even if you ONLY go with the 9 players with a qualifying number of innings played in RF, he was 4th in DRS, 5th in dWAR, and 7th in OAA. NOT top 3.
Among players that started at least 82 games in RF, Soto was 14th in dWAR, 17th in OAA, and 12th in DRS AS A RF.
You really have no clue what matters in baseball, do you?
Pads – Between your unprovoked one line insults and your completely bizarre false claims, you’ve crossed the line. Now if I were to continue to engage with a childish person who constantly spews illogical and false statements that would be on me. I’d be better off trying to engage kindergarten children in baseball talk than continue with you.
It’s not just your ignorance, it’s your arrogance. I constantly take the time to politely point out your many errors, and in return instead of apologizing all you do is continue to double down with insults and blatantly false statements.
You think Soto was 4th in the league in DRS.
That’s because you believe Mike Yaz played for an AL team.
Or because you believe they give out Gold Gloves to the best fielders in MLB, not to the best fielders in each league.
Either way, doesn’t matter anymore.
@reyday. Both of them should have 8 years. Vladdy is the same age. The rest of the contract was the interest rate
Legitimately embarrassed for this guy lol. Time to retire the name. No way of coming back from that Mr. (formerly known as) Pads Fans
Miken:
Why do you care so much about the opinion of a stranger on the Internet? If you don’t like what I think, oh well, I don’t care.
hiflew:
Apparently you don’t understand the concept of a message board.
Vladdy first ballet HOF lol u tripping home slice excellent chance he may not even get in
LordD99:
How can you be taken seriously when you say it will be Soto’s deal “in a few years?” At least, if you said towards the end of it, that would sound objective. But in a few years? When he’s like 29? Utterly foolish.
A 5th year option, or crutches included in this big phat contract.
Soto is already 52
freddiemeetgibby:
26…he’s 26
Bet you say that 4 or 5 times a year.
Players with that body type just don’t age well.
I mean, maybe its worth it if you look at it as a 8-year contract, and write off the last 5 years as a loss. Maybe his prime is worth it. But one way or another, Vlad Jr. is very unlikely to be any good past his 35th birthday.
So in your opinion what is a good body type? Stanton? Springer? Trout? Ohtani?……..? because from what I have seen none of their “Great Body Type” has helped them stay healthy. Oh and go tell CC Sabathia, David Wells, Brian McCann, Ken Camenitti, Johnny Bench, Benji Molina, David Ortiz, Roger Clemens, and on and on that the minute they had portly bodies they were suppose to be done and their bodies were not suppose to last into their 30s because I think someone forgot to give them the memo.
Not to mention Tony Gwynn and Babe Ruth. Vladdy has literally never missed a game for injury.
I get your point for sure, but Ken Caminitti? Not much mystery about how he stayed “healthy” enough to play into his late 30’s. Same with Clemens and maybe/probably Papi.
Rocket wasn’t fat, he was a damn unit. I don’t think Caminiti was fat either?
McCann, Bench, and Bengie Molina were done at age 35.
I’ll give you Big Papi. His longevity was insane.
In terms of genetics, there is ectomorphs, mesomorphs and endomorphs. Long and thin, athletic and round. You would want to be a meso. Vlad looks like an endo. They just have to work harder to keep the round under control.
Well in case you haven’t noticed Vladdy is not “fat” either
I also didn’t say they were fat.
What I did say was they did not have the “Great Body Type” or they were/became portly and still continued to play and perform.
As for Ken Caminiti you should probably take another look at some of the old footage…..he fits the players I described.
Papi, with a little help?
Ken Caminitti openly admitted to using/abusing steroids, pain pills, amphetamines, etc. He did whatever he had to do to stay on the field. Camera footage of his “body type” proves nothing. He struggled with injuries throughout his 20’s. His 30’s were a product of a pharmaceutical/recreational regimen that eventually took control of his life and led to his death.
You may be too young to remember. But Ken Caminitti is a poor comp for proving Vlad can stay on the field.
Vladdy has literally never missed a game for injury.
==========================
1B/DH types that don’t run, don’t usually get injured.
Not fat? LMFAO 😂!
It appears it is completed now according to reports. 14/500. Crazy length and money. A fallout from the Soto overpay.
Imagine how much Kyle Tucker is going to get paid this offseason? He’s a much better player than Vlad, Jr.
I knew this would happen. Everyone kept talking about how he was going to leave the Jays and hoping their team was going to snag him. As soon as he signs, suddenly he’s a garbage player that no one wants anyways.
Since you replied to me, I will say that I think Vlad is a very good player, and will be very good for many years, but the last 5 or so years of his contract will probably resemble the end of Miggy Cabrera’s deal, or Pujols, or Prince Fielder. And in spite of that, he may still be worth $500 million in his prime years.
Tbf, there’s been tons of examples of long-term deals aging poorly anyway in the past 20 years. Vlad is just the most recent one. However, I think teams usually count on the last few years of the contract as a sunk cost anyway. I totally agree with your last point.
Yea this will not age well
The Jays just got worse.
You must have never heard of Anthony Rendon.
I agree with you, may be 5 years down the road or could be less or more but they will regret that deal. They should have traded for prospects.
Boy, did Tucker’s deal just go way up.
Hard to compete with Rendon.
That’s what they say about you at work
Is the contract officially signed yet? Because I am still expecting a story in the next day or two that he changed his mind and is going to sign the extension with the Dodgers instead.
14 years is just insane.
Maybe they’re hoping he’s like his father and can play until he’s 40, but he has a very different body type and his seasons have been uneven. I can see it going south in about five years.
His old man last played at 36.
Fair enough. Even worse!
Realize in most cases the added years are mainly to lower the AAV.
Yep, think of it like you’re agreeing to pay him ~45M for 8 years and then tacking on ~25M per for the final 6 years….even though that’s probably not how it’ll be structured due to the present value of a dollar and luxury tax purposes. The back half is a premium you have to give to get a player to sign for what will surely be his entire career. In today’s market, the one set by NYY and LAD, this is not a bad deal for team or player. For TOR, who controls an entire nation’s worth of fans – market it right and it’ll pay off handsomely – even if age catches up to him 2/3rds of the way through the contract.
Vlad Sr’s last good year came at age 32. In his final 4 years, he had a cum bWAR of 5.2.
Even without considering conditioning, that’s how BB rolls. At age 32, it becomes a simply slope.
Nonsense, Vlad’s age 35 season was quite good.
1.8 bWAR.. And that was surrounded by a 0.7 and 0.2.
That’s an excellent year given the negative dWAR attached to being a DH.
I believe he had over 100 rbis in his 38 or 39 yr old season.
I’m guessing that’s just to spread the AAV around for luxury tax purposes. Teams have been doing that a lot lately.
This.
I think people forget about that.
I always calculate these things based on expected good years. At least TO gets some good Vlad years, as opposed to say Pujols, Rendon, etc., where the expectations were more like 1-2 good years.
There is also his popularity to consider. You need some continuity for the fans.
Rendon wasn’t that old.
The AAV is reasonable, but yeah, the Jays are going to regret the length of that contract.
Guessing $520M/14yr with an opt out after 5 years.
It wound up being 14/$500M with no deferrals. If you figure he can be a significant contributor for as long as his dad played, then it’s basically 10/$500M with four years of deferrals where he has a roster spot.
He won’t have a roster spot when he can’t contribute anymore. Either they work out a deal to let him formally retire while still getting paid (this is most likely since they can make it convert to a personal services contract), or he clears waivers and they remain responsible for his salary while he makes a token effort to find another team.
Just like Pujols and Miggy? If signed for 14 years, expect him to play out the contract.
Two other teams wanted Pujols after the Angels. Clearly teams saw some value in having him on their roster. Just because a guy isn’t great anymore doesn’t mean he can’t be a solid 26th man. And it’s worth noting he actually had a great season at 42 so his decision to stick around was the right one.
There are countless examples of players who retired and converted their contracts because they simply weren’t good enough for a roster spot anymore.
@smuz You mean the way the Angels cut Pujols, or the Tigers cut Cabrera, or… oh, right. They didn’t.
Given the huge annual salary for each, their teams kept sending him out year after year, hoping casual fans wouldn’t notice his contract and lack of performance was killing the team. Former superstars on massive deals hang around for years before their teams part company.
He’s not built like his Dad was. He’s closer to Prince Fielder.
His dad’s last big year was at age 32. Age 33 he had a 2.4, which is borderline, and the final 3 years totaled 2.7 bWAR.
If Vlad Jr starts his decline after age 32, which is not unusual, then it can be considered a $500M/6 contract.
This contract won’t age well. This isn’t about Vladdy’s bat. It’s about preserving the illusion of success after years of failed acquisition strategies, salvaging the public image of a leadership group on the brink, and locking in a tradeable asset before the free agent market or league structure leaves them empty-handed again.
The team should be seeking a trade partner not trying to sign him to some albatross of a contract.
Exactly! Rodgers Communication needs to just say no. They’re getting bad advice from two guys they should have stopped listening to years ago.
Roger’s is probably the driving force for this deal . The timing of the reno getting done , they don’t want to go into a rebuild . We saw this after 16 ,Roger’s wasn’t ready to start a rebuild then after seeing the renewed interest in blue jay baseball so they did half measure in 17 trying to squeeze one more year of ticket sales .
In a few years dont be surprised when it comes out that this was a ownership push
I really hope they sign him. It will be like watching a tragic comedy. The one good takeaway is that fat slow guys don’t usually hurt themselves running into outfield walls or diving for catches. The only way he hits the injury list is if he gives himself a hernia picking up the next pizza slice.
How many contracts that exist now will age well? What a generic lame comment lol this applies to 90%
This contract will be ugly by the early 2030s if not sooner.
If he was as consistent and had the same body type as his dad, this would be money well-spent. But he doesn’t have either, and that doesn’t age well in this sport. He can easily become a Mo Vaughn by his 30s.
Mo Vaughn isn’t brought up enough when making comments about fat guys. Prince Fielder is the default I guess. Both were fun to watch.
Wade – Cecil and Panda are also brought up.
Mo had all sorts of issues …. PED’s, drunk driving, fighting with teammates.
I think I was confusing Cecil with Prince in my head. Now I need to look him up too. Were any of Mo’s problems anything like a certain Tiger AGM that had the comment section closed? Hahaha. I also just never saw Panda as being very good.
Holy smokes Cecil Fielder was the poster boy for this type player though. Only 17 WAR for his whole career.
Wade – Cecil was done by Age 34, Prince was done by Age 32. Father and son had many similarities including their weight, although Cecil’s 285 pounds was on a 6’3″ frame whereas Prince was only 5’11”.
No similarity to the Detroit AGM, Mo kept those urges to gentlemen clubs. LOL! Back in Mo’s playing days the technology didn’t exist anyway. The internet was still in it’s infancy and there were no smartphones with cameras.
Actually I still have my very first cell phone, it looks like the one in Hot Tub Time Machine. LOL!!!
Tito did something similar to the AGM, but much milder …. he sent just shirtless pics.
Panda was a great postseason player who had been declining in the regular season for several years before the Sox signed him. I was strongly against that acquisition, as I am with any player that has been in a steady decline (ie: Story).
Wade – Yeah Cecil hit for power from 1990-1996 but that was about it. He was a late bloomer and faded early.
I didn’t know they were father and son! Thanks!
$35 million a year for Vladdy is a steal. I just don’t like the 14 years. I would of stopped at 11 or 12 years.
If I believed in him that much I would rather go $60 million a year for 5 years and let him go back to free agency to make the rest.
It sounds crazy, but it’s better than getting stuck with 8-9 years of a contract you don’t want.
That is crazy Don. I say might as well pay 200m for 9 more years. Is he going to get so fat and old he can’t be a 700 ops guy? He has name star power.
Ask any Angels fan.
6 ft 245 at the of 26. He’s not getting any taller. He will be 265-270 by he’s 31-32. Insane contract.
If you’re valuing him at 60M per for the next 5 years then; is it that much of a problem that they added on another 9 years for the equivalent of 22M$ per? 22M$ per 6 years from now might be the equivalent of 11M$ today. I.E. it’s not that big of a deal.
LMFAO!
🤔🤣LMFAO!
Mets fans cry.
Why’s that? Have you not noticed how good Alonso looks this year?
That’s a pretty small sample size. Stats are pretty meaningless at this point in the season. I’m sure he’s had stretches where he’s been this hot for this many games plenty of times before.
If he can keep it up for the length of the season, he’ll opt out and won’t have a QO over him, so he’ll probably be able to command 6/$200M.
For a career. 240 hitter?
You mean the guy you didn’t want back?
I definitely wanted him back as did 95% of Mets fans.
Sorry, confused you with another Mets poster who said the following: “As a Met fan this is a huge overpay. Alonso has been going downhill since his rookie season, and the last 2 have been terrible. He does not hit well with RISP, terrible numbers when behind in the count, contact rate down, fielding bad and baserunning worse. Hope he has a great year and leaves so we can give Guerrero Jr. a huge contract.”
Which was laughable given the fact that the Polar Bear hit one of the biggest HRs in Mets’ history last fall.
Not necessarily. Would rather go after Tucker.
Not if we get Tucker, they should both be about the same overall money wise since Tucker is a couple years older but man can he hit the ball like no other. If it’s between 500 mil and 13-14 years for Vlad or 450 mill for 10 years of Tucker, I’ll gladly take Tucker every day of the week
The only ones who will be crying are Blue Jays fans when their $500 million first baseman starts putting up 2 WAR seasons like he did in 2023.
RobM is a sad boy.
He’ll be traded in a few years anyway.
If the Blue Jays are super lucky.
@DDC
Albatross contract. Overpay investment so that future free agents see Toronto as a viable landing place after a few high profile misses. Despite it being bad for my Orioles, I hope he has a number of good seasons and returns some strong production for the BlueJays. I always respected the professional hitter his Dad was. Wish Junior well.
No one will trade for that contract once its signed.
It must be really nice to be Kyle Tucker right now. He’s probably getting about $600 million now or more.
Yankees or Dodgers?
@Mets Era Thumping Soto
Kansas City Royals
Imagine him behind Witt? That would be great for baseball.
@Mets Era- For some weird reason thinking neither.
I think the Yankees are the favorites. He would be lethal in Yankee stadium.
Mets. If Vladdy is gone, they will toss their money at Tucker. He’d be perfect in center.
Tucker isn’t getting 600+ MM. he’s gonna be 29 after the year. You’re probably looking at a 10-11 year deal at around 45-48 MM a year if he stays healthy. So that’s around 450-530MM in that range I can see him signing for. That’s not counting deferrals which if that’s the case he might hit 600M
I said around $600 million or so, remember it takes only 1 team to make a high offer. Best way for Tuck to get back at the Stros’ for trading him, is to sign with the Rangers. If it becomes a bidding war expect the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, and the Yankees to all be involved. $580-600 million over 11 or 12 years, with a opt out seems about right for Tuck. The Cubs should try to extend him right now, but they likely won’t.
Detroit has it’s man in Tofk. Not having to chase down another teams former draft pick. and paying sky high prices is so great for Detroit.
Still a bust
Probably not a bust… I’d take the over on 30 homers.
Over on 30, but bad average, no glove, and no speed.
A profanity spewing ticking time bomb bust
Funny, when I came here there were 27 comments, same as Vlad’s number. Good omen? I agree 100% that a $500 mil deal won’t age well, but for the next 5-7 years he’ll be well worth it. After that odds are low. Still, as a Jays fan I’ll happily worry about an old Vlad issue in the 2030’s. Heck, who knows Canada and the USA could be at war by then. Let’s enjoy baseball while we can.
Now there are a thousand one for each strike
I heard Ohtani is on a plane to Toronto…
No worries that plane has no wings or wheels.
This feels like a leaked story to show the fanbase they tried.
@yukongold. Especially since they missed his deadline, And he said he’s testing free agency.
He’s off to a very slow start which should be a cautionary tale for the Blue Jays…let him heat up before talking extensions in the neighborhood of $500M
He is off to a slow start because they have a manger that thinks if he continues to do the same thing long enough he will be right. This is the fourth time he has tried putting Vladdy in the 2 hole and it has not worked yet.
So which is more insane Johnny Ask 5 continuing to do the same thing hoping for a different result or me continuing to watch it and hoping he learned his lesson?
I think it’ll be 15 years/$600M because I can’t imagine him “settling” for $35M and change per year. He supposedly thinks he’s worth $40-$50M per season- unless he’s become realistic about his likely trajectory and he’s been humbled by the bird in hand rather than the two in the bush.
This will ultimately become the story of how Toronto mortgaged the future of the not-good-enough franchise to sign a guy to an absolutely terrible contract and completely regretted it within 3 years but he’s signed for 11 more after that with a full no trade.
At the VERY LEAST don’t give him a NTC. I think the numbers involved will provide enough of a guarantee that he’d never be traded(no one will take take him at that price). Don’t voluntarily put the final nail in the coffin.
It won’t matter if they do because as of April 26th 2029 he will have 10 and 5 rights giving him a NTC anyway
more air quotes in those first few paragraphs than most novels
How does one write air quotes? Air quotes are done with the fingers while talking. Not sure anyone has been able to achieve putting air quotes in print.
@Jean Matrac Air quotes in print involve the use of single quotes:
Your comment is so ‘insightful.’
Like that. Especially if a word is being repeated:
Someone said “Bill Smith is very intelligent.”
Yeah, Bill’s very ‘intelligent.’
Dictionary.com: Air quotes are “a pair of quotation marks gestured by a speaker’s fingers in the air, to indicate that what is being said is ironic or mocking, or is not a turn of phrase the speaker would typically employ.”
Merriam-Webster.com: Air quotes are “a gesture made by raising and flexing the index and middle fingers of both hands that is used to call attention to a spoken word or expression.”
Wikipedia: “Air quotes, also called finger quotes, are virtual quotation marks formed in the air with one’s fingers when speaking…Air quotes are often used to express satire, sarcasm, irony or euphemism and are analogous to scare quotes in print.”
Refer to the paragraphs @buns cherington was referring to, now, because of the update, the second and third paragraphs. There isn’t one instance of apostrophes being used in lieu of quotation marks, as you’ve done in your examples. You’ve confused air quotes with scare quotes used to denote things like sarcasm. Again, air quotes are something unable to be put into print, since they’re employed when speaking, not writing.
I’d maybe give him 8 years/$310M w/ a $10M buyout on a $50M club option.
But 15 years at *any* rate is going to be a disaster.
Whether it’s $25M or $50M per season, the overpay won’t be the dollars per, but the years and dollar total.
I can understand if they tack on 1-2 years but that’s still only 9 or 10 years- if they do this deal they are essentially saying they’re paying him over 14 or 15 years for 7 or 8 years of value…
They do this pretty regularly in general-tack on years and dollars to get it done- but this would be the most egregious overpay in baseball history in terms of common sense and statistics clearly warning that this is going to be the worst deal of all time.
The length of the deal is about bringing down the AAV while keeping a home grown franchise player. I don’t think anybody expects Vladdy to perform like 2024 Vladdy when he is 40. Not impossible (see Lebron James) but not likely.
However by keeping him around it gives the team some extra marketability for him becoming the first Blue Jay to _______, or when he hits his _______ homerun/RBI/hit and eventually when he goes to the HOF he will wear a Blue Jays cap and as of today he would be only the second? one to do so.
Worst deal of all time? Chris Davis and Robinson Cano would like a word
Anthony Rendon would like a word or Stephen Stratsburg.
Bonnilla will be getting paid til 2035!
Yeah but that’s relative peanuts compared to others. All in all the Mets are gonna pay him 23.8 MM more than they had to. That’s like 2/3 of a seasons worth of pay for Stratsburg who pitched a total of 30 innings for 7 years and 245MM. And Rendon who played 257 total games for 245MM.
Bonilla is not within 1,000 miles of the worst contracts of all time. The Mets also used that money that they deferred to acquire Mike Hampton. When Hampton left in FA, they used their comp pick to draft David Wright.
$1.05 million per game for Rendon vs. $8.17 million per inning for Strasburg. I would say Stras is the worst.
@TTO 14/400m is far better for the Jays than 10/400m.
He’s not going to be worth anything in 2036, so the 11th through 14th years don’t matter. What the Jays are getting is a lower annual hit to any LT penalties, and the ability to pay out the same nominal amount of money over more years, meaning for example they can invest and pay the last years in much cheaper money.
Money’s fungible. $1 is only $1 today. It’s not worth $1 next year, or the year after, or the year after that, and is almost always worth less.
500 M / 10 years
20 M / year for 10 years
30 M deferred for each of the next 10 years
Gives the team flexibility to build the team around him and lower the lux tax and the player gets a record Avv for a long term with the 500M they are searching.
350/10 That’s my max.
He declines? Trade him and build around bo and the pitching.
Bo has been very clear that he gone.
I wont miss him.
I’m glad they locked him. People will talk about this contract not aging well, but the Blue Jays have a star player signed long term. That’ll bring in money and kids will grow up loving this guy. It’s good for baseball.
It’s not the contract that won’t age well. It’s Vlad that won’t age well.
Maybe, but none of that changes my point. The Mets fans were giving this guy a standing ovation. NY radio was debating if the Yankees or Mets would pursue him harder. Now, the Jays got their guy. I like to see that.
It isn’t the Vlad that won’t age well. It’s the Hot Cheetos and footlongs in his tummy.
Now trade Bo to Braves
Holy cow they did it!
nytimes.com/athletic/6234442/2025/04/07/vladimir-g…
The Jays are a last place team with Vlad… might as well take all that money and get multiple pieces to help the team. $500M wasted. Yes he’s a good player and i dont get all the hate on this site towards Vlad, but he can’t do it all himself.
To leverage his prime years, they’ll have to hit on their player development in pretty short order. Kind of like Boston. They didn’t really tank and draft high for a bunch of years. Even their big trades like the Mookie trade didn’t bring in major building blocks. It was a player development success getting all these young guys to the majors or on the doorstep. Of course, we haven’t seen them be great yet, but it kind of feels like they’re about to be.
The Jays don’t have the feel of an organization about to suddenly develop a bunch of high end talent. They do okay with moving the high floor low impact guys along. But it’s hard to see where the impact will come from. They do of course have a bunch of money coming off the books over the next couple of years. But roster building completely in free agency is not a sustainable plan.
Solid points, though it’s worse than you describe. The Jays farm ranks in the bottom 5 by most accounts. Keeping Vlad isn’t going to do anything for their chances of winning a WS while putting an anchor on the team for the last decade of a 14 year deal.
You’re not going to fix the Jays through free agency. Their farm system has to start producing more. All they seem capable of producing is mediocre low-ceiling types like Spencer Horowitz and Davis Schneider.
Funny how ‘hate’ is now synonymous with “reasoned critiques of why a heavyset player who plays a corner IF position badly, has only two AS caliber seasons since 2019, and should already be a DH-only isn’t worth $500 million.”
He is a very good fielder. What is this crap that seems to be accepted that he is a bad first baseman? His arm ranks in the 99th percentile, is extremely athletic for a man his size, and digs them out with the best of them.
This narrative needs to stop as it is completely false and accepted by the weak minded who don’t have enough intelligence to actually seek out facts.
Finally!
Someone that really is OK playing in Toronto!
Next…work on the acting skills to improve the crustables commercials.
He should really reach out and buy Hazel an umbrella now.
Is he really ok playing in Toronto if they have to give him that contract to get him to stay? Where’s the hometown discount?
Insane contract. Vlad will not age well…he already doesn’t take care of himself like he should now. Jays won’t win with this move. Also, the contracts in sports are outrageous…and us as the consumer loses because we foot the bill. Yuck.
He plays everyday. Might be a .780 OPS but he posts and gotta give him credit for that
For being healthy?
“Doesn’t take care of himself like he should now” How do you know that? Because he’s big? Silly comment.
Ouch, Von. I am an infrequent poster, but I read many of the comments and you always post quality material, so that stings. I may have phrased poorly, but giving $500MM to a player who has already had weight issues…there’s been many articles…2021, 2022 and 2024 about Vlad losing weight to be “in the best shape of my life”. That kind of fluctuation for a player that will never have to play for a contract again is pretty concerning…at least to me.
Hey. Fatties need love too. Haha. Some dude are just big.
When you say ‘big’, do you mean tall (only 6’0″) or fat (listed at 245)?
Smart deal for free agent reputation, ancillary sales/profits and treating a homegrown superstar appropriately.
He’s right at the 94 EV mark he maintained last season, so his improvements have stuck around. Sure, his body type and one dimensional contributions leave this contract looking like a front half investment, but $35 mil won’t be as big of a percentage against future higher tax penalty thresholds.
This deal gets a solid B and probably would have been more in the C range if a FA signing, but the homegrown merchandising and reputational bump has to be considered.
Literally why, the guy has 1 great season, 1 good season and a bunch of mid and he looks horrible so far this year
I’d credit him with 2 great seasons, but even so 500m is a ridiculous price for this type of player. Fat, slow, extremely poor fielder at the easiest position on the diamond to fill. He’s 26 and is already down to a 25.9 fps sprint speed.
His 12 bWAR fr 2022-2024 puts him roughly 30th-best in the majors. How is that player worth the 2nd richest contract in MLB history?
This is the worst sort of “heads the team gets screwed but keep our jobs a little longer, tails the team gets screwed even worse and we never work in baseball again” deal.
JackStrawb
His 12 bWAR fr 2022-2024 puts him roughly 30th-best in the majors.
===========================
Fangraphs ranks him as #50 over the past 3 years, among hitters. #69 if you include pitchers.
I’m a little leery of the contract but Vlad is very fun to watch and cheer for. The fact he was born in Canada helps too
Plus $35M a year in 10 to 12 years will be much less of an outlier.
Don’t be so sure. The decade-long Pujols and Cabrera deals hamstrung the Angels and Tigers until they expired.
Miggy & Detroit missed the playoffs in his final 9 seasons, and Pujols & the Angels made the playoffs once., despite having Trout and Ohtani..
Payroll counts.
Tucker now thinking $600MM.
As a Cubs fan, I already know he’s gone.
Not a chance, Tucker will be 3 years older than Vlad and Soto. 400 maybe
A 5 WAR player who’s never been better than that, turning 29 in 2026?
He can think it all he wants, and he’ll make stupid money to be sure, but he’s getting nowhere near $500m.
The Jays better hope they don’t get the 2022-23 Vladdy for those 14 years. Vladdy has little or no defensive and baserunning value, so this is a pure play on his bat. Which has been inconsistent over the years, to put it mildly. Good luck, guys.
Love it. We haven’t seen his best yet. Ups and downs are part of baseball but a career superstar is a big thing for any MLB franchise.
These decade+ long contracts are ridiculous.
This guy no longer has any reason to get, and then stay in shape. His bat – which is the only thing of value he possesses – is inconsistent.
Ridiculous contract.
Financially, maybe not. But you don’t think this son-of-a-bigleaguer doesn’t have incentive to hit dingers, win ballgames, and be loved by the fans?
Major leaguers aren’t lazy like internet commenters
Bingo. Which is why they are in the bigs, and Luis is hitting dingers on his couch.
Financially? Absolutely! They should let him become a FA, offer him $50MM/2 over the next highest bidder, and save a ton of money.
Rendon called and said he is in fact lazy.
Plot twist, it’s 500 mil Canadian
I was about to say this exact thing lol
Lots of fans who wanted this guy next free agency now trying to insult the Jays because the same contract “won’t age well.”
Get a grip. No contracts age well.
Toronto locked up our boy, suck on it haters!
Oh brother. Are you 12 or 13?
Stfu clown
He’s 13 but you have to love the enthusiasm. Great to see these young kids getting into baseball.
This effectively makes Vladdy a Blue Jay for life, which has to please the majority of the fan base while also guarenteeing that he isn’t playing in LA or New York next season, which is also a win for MLB.
I wonder though is there money to keep Bichette (do they even want to?) or can we count the days til he’s either traded or signs elsewhere next winter…
Blue Jays are simply going along with the national mood to Buy Canadian
Elbows Up! Eh.
Some of you all have ridiculous takes. All off-season there were a few fans of the larger market teams that have the ability to make the mega contact signings claimed their team wasn’t interested in giving Pete Alonso a deal because they knew they could sign Vlad to a huge multi year contract next year.
Fast forward to now and the same fans want to call Toronto foolish for locking Vlad up for the rest of his career. Now those teams are better off because they might be able to sign Kyle Tucker next year instead of Vlad. Can’t wait to see the reversal on Tucker if the Cubs somehow lock him up for the long term and he doesn’t hit free agency and become available.
People would take your opinions a lot more serious and respect them if you had a little consistency.
Those.were.not.the.same.people.
Joe is taking on the Internet. Joe is not going to win.
I am Joe’s self respect.
Seems like he left a lot of cash on the table. Good for the jays.
I think Guerrero, Jr. had some kind of moment of clarity or maybe his dad pointed out some logical fallacies of aiming to break certain records on a contract when even not doing that it’s still a record breaking amount of money in some context.
I always wonder about the AAV vs the total vs the number of years when a total dollar amount divides fractionally per year overall.
Like, his contract could come out to a total of $499,999,990 and be exactly $35,714,285 and or they could go to a total of $500,000,005 or $35,714,286 OR maybe it’s like 14 years/$490M w/ a $10M signing bonus, etc.?
While on the other hand we have Turk Wendell contracts with their very specific amounts down to the penny.
Is Vlad worth this contract? IMO no… did Toronto HAVE to get this deal done with every free agent they’ve tried to lure as of late saying no thanks? IMO 100% yes. $500 mil is the number that pays Vlad what his market value, plus a tax fir making him play in Canada I guess.
So Prince Fielder Part 2 just got the hook up. This will set the Bluejays back even further in the division shelling out that much money over the next decade + for one player.
Explain how he’s like prince fielder? don’t say weight.
The fact your rebuttal is “don’t say weight” is the proof. This is a disaster contract and it will be a huge downfall for the future of the organization. He will end up finishing his career with the Giants or Rockies as an overweight and out of shape player who the Bluejays trade for a few prospects in Single A that won’t amount to anything.
@Jose
calling him “out of shape” is crazy, dude has muscle, surely more than you.
In fact, if he’s overweight and out of shape….some of the best players all time were out of shape and overweight, and were still good.
You cant say this is a disaster contract right now, because you cant tell the future.
At this point you’re just being a hater, and I sense a lot of jealousy too.
He finished top the in ROY, top ten in MVP two times, and he’s a 4 time all star in his 7 years in the league so far.
aside from his rookie year, he’s never had an OPS+ below 115, and he already has a 21 career WAR, and is on pace to have a higher war than both prince fielder AND David ortiz (who were both overweight and “out of shape”.
Vlad has had no signs of slowing down his offensive production, but…his defense is pretty mediocre and his speed is subpar, despite having a good base running value.
his exit velocity’s and bat speed are both close to elite, and he doesn’t strikeout a ton and his on base abilities are good.
I advise you go check out his savant page for this year, and past years of his career.
as of right now, this contract is good, Vlad is a great hitter, mediocre fielder with subpar speed.
We’ll see how he does this season and we will come back to these comments.
Wow your rebuttal to my comment makes it seem like you are Vlad his father defending his honor. He isn’t anything great and is def a Prince Junior. I don’t care who the athlete is but a 15 year contract for pretty much anyone is beyond a gamble. He is not a Hall of Fame player and this contract is a waste of money. Good for him though to get generational wealth but this will go down as one of the worst contracts in history.
@Jose
I’m not defending his honor, I’m simply stating facts.
Also, prince was 30 pounds heavier than Vlad in their first 6 seasons in MLB Not to mention Vlad has been actually losing weight since 2021, trying to better himself.
You have no facts to back up anything, you are simply spreading nonsense and hate.
$500 million for a player who will not be in the Hall of Fame is nuts. I’ll take Joe Carter, Roberto Alomar or Fred McFriff in the 90s over Vlad any day. This is a terrible 15 year commitment. The contract will expire in 2040. Terrible move. They will never compete in the AL East in the long term with this move.
@lind
that’s fair, and we all have our differences.
have a great day man
Just some friendly banter. Have a good day as well.
JoseLind
The fact your rebuttal is “don’t say weight” is the proof.
=============================
LOL! There is no point in talking about anything if the main issue cannot be discussed. It’s like asking what’s wrong with America’s health, but ‘don’t say weight’.
as of right now, this contract is good,
============================
No one is saying it isn’t.
The only question is what it will look like 6 years from now.
This contract seems a bit bloated. This comment does too. Try to trim it down a bit.
You seem to have a pretty stout interest in BJ’s baseball. Pretty robust fan base in Canada?
I think all this talk about Vlad’s weight is just overinflated.
Russia- It’s the weight.
You can’t tell someone to explain something then take away the biggest, fattest, most obese point they can make.
Yes, this is a lot for any player but given the current economics, they had to and got this deal done. Soto broke baseball. Good for Jays fans here!
I’m not a fan of mega contracts. His weight going to age well? A 1b.
Age is great. Hard hit data great. Last season great.
Going to go C. They paid the price. I hear Toronto taxes stink. Players don’t want to go there for some reason so if not taxes it’s something. I feel like in free agency if NY LA offered him 400 TOR would have to do 500. So I am viewing this as a 400 deal. They remodeled. They failed to get big free agents. They did what they had to do. I think there’s better ways to spend half a billion. Not a premium position. Risky that he won’t age well.
Scary contract. If he keeps healthy and hitting hard it will work out great. They know his work ethic.
Players hate the metric system. That’s the reason!
Shapiro & Atkins just saved their jobs. Now they have to decide what they want to do with Bichette
I ran to the comments so fast I’m out of breath! I knew I wouldn’t be disappointed by the amount of hateful sons of bitches 😆😆🥹
It’s amazing the same crew who constantly bash the jays front office for not doing anything and bungling the whole situation are the SAME folks that are bashing the signing.
I love my armchair GM’s they make my day!
Respect your loyalty – just promise to post your thoughts in 2031
So you react to everything that doesn’t matter. Brilliant recipe for success in life. Keep up the great work.
Plump.
$500,000,000 over 14 years for an overweight first baseman? Prince Fielder anyone?
@mute
fielder and Vlad are two completely different builds and players.
Still seems like a heavy investment.
@WadeBoggs – I caught the pun, nice one
This is great news for the rest of the AL East. Cripples the Jays for a decade.
36M$ per is going to cripple the Blue Jays?
@mrkinsm Better to say, “it’s going to hamstring the Blue Jays” just as any unproductive amount in the neighborhood of 15-16% of payroll will hamstring even teams regularly running salaries right around the LT threshold.
I’ll say it again… Guerrero Jr. is Lazy and is brutal running the bases ! And not worth it….
shapiro and his lackie atkins must be fired !!
As a Lifelong over 50 years Mets Fan, This makes me happy! Tired of hearing the rumors. The Mets need pitching. The rest will be just fine!
Tired of reading material that you’re not forced to read. Brilliant.
It’s hard to envision a 14 year contract aging well, regardless of the dollars.
If he doesn’t end up with 500 HRs this contract will be pretty horrible. Which sounds nuts, but he’s only got 340 more to go. Thats 25 per year. If he can’t average that — it’s probably falling short.
Of course maybe he hits .320 and becomes a line drive hitter. It’s still hard to envision this ending up well for anything other than Vlads bank account.
He’s already a high average line drive hitter. The HRs just kind of come along, but he’s more of a pure hitter than a power hitter.
Pound for pound this is a steal!
I think this is too risky of a deal… here’s why, 2nd highest present day value to a guy who has shown dipping in his performance and truly can only play 1B and DH (so minimal fielding value if any in a couple years into the contract. I acknowledge that his “downs” in performance are still elite compared to others… but is it better that Ohtani just behind Soto elite? No.. I’d argue it’s a tier down. And last and probably the most important reason for this deal is his body. He’s done a decent job of trimming up in recent years but weight management has been a chronic problem for him and those who struggle with that breakdown in performance faster all else being equal. People will point at David Ortiz as a comparison against me, but there is a clear difference. Ortiz was big and muscle thick. VG is baby weight looking big… meaning a lot of extra fat behind it
@bravesfan In fact Vlad’s “downs in performance” aren’t close to elite. They’re perfectly ordinary 2 WAR seasons, and he’s had as many of those as he’s had AS-caliber seasons.
Even his elite seasons aren’t actually elite—not when those seasons are 6 bWAR seasons compared to the 9, 10, 11 WAR seasons the best players in baseball are putting up.
Silly Blue Jays.
That isn’t how NPV works, and I wish these reporters would stop getting this wrong. The league is treating deferred money differently for AAV purposes, but that doesn’t change NPV. Ohtani has an NPV around $460M, Soto’s is around $639M and Vlad’s is around $415M. It is for these reasons that NPV should be the measure for AAV, not a system that applies one set of rules to one type of contract and a different set to others.
It’s just math, anyone can do it: bsky.app/profile/sandykazmir.bsky.social/post/3lm7…
The idea that ‘anyone can do math’ is so typically American. Most will simply glaze over at the sight of the table you link to and get no further, as basic as it is.
I had a long dinner conversation with two people who thought that literally anyone, with a good enough education, could become a competent physician. It was incredible, that they thought this, actually believed this.
NPV is a continual topic in these threads, and it’s clear 95% of those commenting have no idea what it means.
too many years, I don’t think he will age well
The idea the contract won’t age well doesn’t consider the context. Few players age well into their mid thirties. That doesn’t mean their contract doesn’t. No team is expecting prime performances on the back half of a deal like this. It’s just accounting. Some teams can do high AAV short term deals when they have a young affordable core. Like Boston with Bregman. Bregman’s deal is over when the young guys’ salaries start to climb. Toronto isn’t really in that stage. They signed Vlad (and to a lesser extent took on Gimenez and extended Kirk who are both young) to be the young core because they don’t really have one emerging from the farm. In Vlad’s case, stretching it gives them more money to help add around him in his prime years.
If you like $/WAR calculations, this probably doesn’t look like a great deal unless you think he’s going to be a great player deep into the contract which is unlikely. But if you believe a player who can anchor an offense is a rare commodity, then you probably see more value in it. On top of that is the business situation. Vlad might not be worth this contract in projected on field value but there’s a part of this deal that has to be about business. The team is big business. This is probably less about drawing new fans in the way Ohtani or Soto would have been and more about avoiding a jumping off point for what has been a large loyal, even if disgruntled fanbase at a time when they’ve made major investments in the team both on and off the field.
Good comment, though Vlad’s not really the player you’re describing. He’s had two lucky seasons at the plate, but is otherwise not a good fit for the accompanying nouns and adjectives.
Still, the Jays have to treat this merely very good player as if he’s a perennial MVP candidate because of how they’ve otherwise boxed themselves in with weak drafts and a location most MLBers don’t voluntarily head for—but they haven’t compensated enough with early extensions to promising players, though they did well to trade for Giminez and extend Kirk.
The premium here for a player who is not AS caliber year to year is extraordinarily high. I suppose if the NPV is $415m over a 14/500m deal and the Jays are willing to write off another $10m a year and call it ‘marketing’ they can sort of justify it, but it’s an awful deal for a player who has only been even arguably elite in just two of the six years he’s been in the majors.
This feels like it’s moving the bloodletting at the gate back a few years.
Pending a physical? He been with them everyday for the last2 months? They don’t know his health?
It’s standard for a new contract signing. Getting the contract insured also requires one.
Good luck with that
Congrats Jays fans!
They’ll regret not giving him opt-outs after the 5th or 6th year.
The idea that V Jr will be opting out of a deal with 10/320m left on it at 32 is genuinely funny. Cheers,
If he thinks he could get more, then he might.
Cheers.
Need proof of life confirmation re: Jays FO. Hope Guerrero’s agents release the hostages after the deal is signed.
Oops
damn, I just told my brother last Wednesday that Arizona would sign him. prediction denied.
Sounds like a bad prediction. AZ isn’t spending $500 million on anyone. Until inflation halves our money’s worth again. So in 2 years.
Good idea.
Mistake.
He will gain weight and have injury problems starting after age 30. He’s been durable so far, but he human metabolic rate drops with age and it becomes much harder to lose weight as you age. Trust me on this.
If he hasn’t already lost his gut he may never.
Trout, a CFer, had trouble taking the field regularly starting at age 25.
The Jays FO had better hope he’s one of those rubbery fat guys with incredible reflexes who doesn’t mind DHing beginning at 29 so they can keep him healthy enough for 600 PA a year.
Or take Pujols, who after he went to the Angels quickly looked like a man with two fully dressed Thanksgiving turkeys strapped around his waist. He was terrible for the money they were paying him, but he was able to stay in the lineup regularly until he was 38.
Very hard to tell from this distance.
When Toronto is out of the playoff picture watch the Yankees make a deal with them for Bo Bichette to play third!
Bo isnt know for his defense, no way he can play third.
Lol 3rd Bo has enough problems throwing from SS.
Probly woulda gotten 600 from mets
Oh well
Moving on
Hello kyle tucker !
Tucker is a cub 4 life
TOMMY NICKELS IS GOING TO GET IT DONE
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Good luck bro
Vladdy Jr. Is gonna regret going 14 years.
I’d rather take half the money he’ll get over 7years. 35mil aav. And I could sign another huge contract or extend in 5 or 6 years and get the 500mil total with 2 different contracts.
This will age badly.
7 years at $35M+ would be $250M through age 33. Who is signing him to another $250M+ contract which will begin when he’s 34? I’m confused by your comment.
I’m not saying specifically vladdy Jr. Just saying if I’m a young superstar type player like a Juan Soto or Vlad Jr I wouldn’t want a huge 14 year deal. At least half that will be the team rebuilding or retooling. Maybe shredding payroll
In 7 years his career will be essentially over. Forced to DH and not able to sign another contract other than the year to year deals you see other one dimensional players signing at age 33.
that’s a lot of Big Macs
No more Little Caesars for Vladdie
There is going to be a lot of old geyser still on a contract in a decade.
As old as the ones at Yellowstone?
@Strunk Flugget
Yes, sir!
The contract allows him to opt out after 1000 Happy meals..
500 million is a ton of money and 14 years is an extremely long time for someone who already is a 1B/DH player. But it’s refreshing to see a long term contract with no deferred money and no opt outs.
What I love about this deal is that this is a young star player, homegrown national player, that wanted to be in TOR. Did they overpay, sure, but who cares. They had to sign him… it’s what the fans wanted and demanded. Not to mention, it now drove up prices for players in the future, which makes it harder on teams like TB and BAL to keep their talent unless they pony up. And in 5 years this contract will once again look like a deal compared to what’s being given out.
Happy to see him sign with the Jays I never wanted to deal with him in Boston or in Queens. Will I hate it when he hits a game winner against the Yankees sure, but I didn’t want him paired with Soto or anyone in Boston
Tatis deal looking better and better.
PLatinum Glove winner and 40/40 candidate.
Guerrero is a 3 tool player…Tatis 5
Just hope he stays away from the ringworm.
Guerrero is a 2 tool player. He hits for average and power. He can’t run, throw, or field well.
He has a 3rd tool. Putting away an entire stick of butter in under 30 seconds is a skill.
He has the highest ranked arm of any 1st baseman. You may want to check your stats. Also his running is ranked well above league average.
given what’s going on in the U.S. good he struck a deal with the Jays.
That’s where you yellow snow eaters belong. Shoveling snow for a living.
That’s about right, given your general lack of understanding about much of anything.
I believe that this contract will be a humongous albatross by the time Guerrero turns 31 because players with his body type do not age well. Players start to decline in performance in their age 31 season and for players with that body type its more like a fall off a cliff than a measured decline that most players experience.
There are obviously exceptions to that rule, but not many.
Good luck to the Blue Jays going forward. Its good that they are in the top half of baseball in revenue, because they just tied up a huge portion of it in Guerrero for the next 14 years.
Not sure how this scales if compared to Ryan Howard’s contract, but I know it wasn’t 15 years and it became a mill stone around the neck of the Phillies for at least 3 seasons before it expired.
Howard’s deal was a complete disaster. His last 7 seasons the Phils paid him $164m (back when that was real money) for negative 2.7 bWAR. His best year after age 29 was 1.2 bWAR–iow not worth a lineup slot even at his best.
The last 7 years of Vlad’s 14 year deal will look a lot like that..
Be eatin more Double-Doubles on those West Coast trips….
I thought the Devers deal was too long. This is much worse since they are almost the identical player.
The best player in the World gave the Yankees a substantial break when he signed long term. But A..Judge wanted to play for the Yanks for his entire career,
kudos to him!
Shohei says 👋
Good. Now extend Bichette.
David Ortiz was productive later in his career, no reason vlad cant.
Points to extreme outlier—‘see, no reason I can’t win the lottery. Give me… one thousand tickets.’
Ortiz was on juice and he was a better hitter than Vlad has ever been.
Big Papi was a late bloomer and didn’t begin hitting his stride until he was 27 (and had 58 career homeruns). Vladdy is 26 (with 160 HRs) and entering his prime years with also good health on his side.
Ortiz had his last years of production thanking meds for his success.
A lot of people are confused about how players age. Not every player will age at the same rate, but FG did a study on the average rate of decline. They found that from the age of 30 on, as expected, the age curve declined, but that the curve was shallow through the mid-30s. It wasn’t until the late 30s that the curve became steep. Some guys will be toast by age 34-35, while others are still productive at 40, or beyond, but both those examples are outliers.
Wish Vlad the best of luck. He is a great young talent. But I honestly think this might be one of those contracts that the player doesn’t come close to living up to.
*Yawn*
I hear that.
Can someone please explain… $325 million signing bonus paid over the life of the contract. What’s the benefit of that to the team? Does it not count towards luxury tax or something?
Read.
Reading is wonderful.
Reading may answer your questions.
Reading…it even has it’s own railroad!
joshb600, Bonuses are taxed differently from salary. Salary is taxed in the cities the guy plays in. Bonuses are taxed in the place of residence. For teams in locations with higher tax rates like NY, California, Toronto, etc., paying the money out that way is a benefit to the player as it allows the player to save money if he resides in a lower taxed location, as most do. The team pays the same amount of money, but the player pays less tax. It’s how teams in higher taxed areas can get players to sign.
Trying to imagine how much some of you would be crying if this crazy .325M was part of a contract the dodgers gave out. You would be losing your minds rolling on the floor crying about how baseball is ruined.
Now we know.
I do not know who is advising Vladdy, but the advisors earned their cut of this contract. The tax savings on the signing bonus is huge. He now has generational wealth from playing the game plus whatever endorsement deals he lands.
I wonder if he has aspirations to own (part of) a team when his playing days are done.
Given the fact that the contract really isn’t $500 Million with Canadian and American taxes (he pays for every state he plays in) doubt very seriously whether his $$$millions really puts him in the same stratosphere as any owner or potential owner……he’d need massive financial help to even think that….moreso, he may be investing in chains of MacDonalds or Duncan Donut shops……
The fact that he’s taxed in every state he plays in means he’ll pay zero tax for every game against the Marlins, Rays, Astros, and Rangers. More importantly, the $325M in bonuses will be taxed where he resides, not where he plays, which is Florida. Florida has no state income tax. He’ll do fine financially, especially if he invests wisely.
Both Vlad Jr and Soto will hit well into their 30s, but their defense, baserunning and overall play will deteriorate drastically. I was hoping maybe Detroit would make a play for Vlad next season, but not at that price. He is a big fella and his play will decline quickly when he hits his 30s. But it’s the going rate for these mid-20s superstars, and if the Jays didn’t pay it someone would’ve.
I’m curious about the rules/laws around ‘signing bonus’ vs ‘official salary’ aspects of a deal…. Also, Vladd,y Jr. claims Florida, but its been widely reported that he resides in the Dominican Republic and Canada or something when he was growing up and where he resides in the off season as a player….
I mean, Glenn Powell, the actor, flat out said he bought a shack in Texas for tax purposes, even though he basically lives in Los Angeles and admits as much.
I’d buy 1/10 acre of desert in Montana just to be able to get lifetime registration on vehicles.
Is the signing bonus money protected if he gets suspended?
Interesting thought.
Suspended for what? if it is for PED – he won’t get paid for the 81 games you get for first timers – if it is for domestic abuse, he wont’ get paid for the days he is suspended.
But the bonus is paid at the start of the season and isn’t counted per game. At least that is the logic behind the question. If he still gets paid regardless of a strike or lockout then wondering about getting paid for a suspension is reasonable.
Basically what Wade said. The article says that signing bonus money is earned when the contract is signed not when services are performed.
They will get 4-5 AS caliber seasons out of this contract they already regret it u can sense it.
What am I missing? I just looked at his stats. I see “really good baseball player” but I don’t see $500M player. Never had over 199 hits. Good doubles, few triples, decent (not elite) HR tallies. Good OPS (not elite). Low walks, high SO’s. Average under .290.
Unless I’m missing something, this is NOT an elite player. It’s a good player that probably has a lot of excellent days… but elite? I mean elite as in generational type wealth and money? I’m not seeing it.
Now it’s time to get fat and sassy