By Tim Dierkes | at
Word from my Mets source is that the team is in a holding pattern until Tom Glavine makes his decision. He feels that the club will end up with either Glavine or Barry Zito and fill the other spots internally.
There is a chance Brian Bannister is traded for a solid reliever to replace Chad Bradford. Interested parties include the Rockies and Mariners. He mentioned the D’Backs as well, but their interest may have waned now that Doug Davis has been acquired.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Nothing in the news that is too breathtaking today, but there have been enough things worthy of mention that I thought I’d throw them all into one thread.
Here’s a fun trade possibility: the Red Sox are interested in Chad Cordero (uh, who wouldn’t be?) and may be dangling Wily Mo Pena, whom Jim Bowden is known to…how should I put this?…really like. Bowden hasn’t acquired a toolsy outfielder for a couple of weeks now, so if the Sox found a way to sweeten the deal, perhaps Trader Jim would take the bait.
The Yankees have been quiet lately, but they may soon make an offer to bring back Ted Lilly. They have also been linked to Shea Hillenbrand and Rich Aurilia to fill a spot at first base.
The Rockies signed Jeff Francis to a four-year deal for $13.25M, which takes him through his arbitration years. He’s still only 25, and if nothing else, he’s proven he can eat innings. He may still turn into more than that. Even if he’s no more than a 5th starter, he’ll be worth close to that amount, and the Rockies will probably want to exercise their ~$7M option for his first year of free agency in 2011.
According to the LA Times, who I would link to if they didn’t require registration, Carlos Lee isn’t interested in the west coast, which would rule out the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants. You gotta admit, it would’ve been pretty funny if El Caballo signed in LA and he and Juan Pierre played side by side for the next five years. By the end of those deals, Vin Scully would’ve said "double to the left-field gap" more times than he did in his first twenty years of broadcasting.
The Reds sent more than half of Jason LaRue’s salary along with him in yesterday’s trade. I didn’t think it was a horrible deal for the Royals in the first place (though, admittedly, do they really need a mediocre stopgap catcher to help get them to 70 wins?) but this makes it a better one. More coverage at Royals Review. (You didn’t know there was a Royals blog, did you?)
By Jeff Sackmann
By Tim Dierkes | at
Time to break down the Rockies for 2007. Many thanks to the fine Rockies blog Purple Row, a helpful resource.
Dan O’Dowd’s contract obligations:
C – Chris Iannetta – $0.38MM
C – Yorvit Torrealba – $1MM
1B – Todd Helton – $16.6MM
2B – Kaz Matsui – $1.5MM
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – $0.38MM
3B – Garrett Atkins – $0.38MM
IF – Jamey Carroll – $0.7MM
IF – Clint Barmes – $0.38MM
LF – Matt Holliday – $0.7MM
CF –
RF – Brad Hawpe – $0.38MM
OF – Cory Sullivan – $0.38MM/Jeff Baker – $0.38MM
SP – Jason Jennings – $5.5MM
SP – Jeff Francis – $0.38MM
SP – Aaron Cook – 3.05MM
SP – Byung-Hyun Kim – $2.5MM
SP –
SP – Ubaldo Jimenez – $0.38MM
RP – Brian Fuentes – $3.5MM
RP – Jeremy Affeldt – $1MM
RP – Denny Bautista – $0.38MM
RP – Ramon Ramirez – $0.38MM
RP – Manuel Corpas – $0.38MM
RP – David Cortes – $0.38MM
RP –
By my estimate the Rockies have $40.6MM locked up before raises, so let’s say $45MM for now. Holliday alone could see his salary increase by $4MM in arbitration. They entered the 2006 season with a $41.2MM payroll.
The Rox appear to have a capable tandem behind the plate with rookie Iannetta and 28 year-old Torrealba. However, the team is still concerned with Torrealba’s strained shoulder, which dates back to September. There has been talk of importing either Bengie Molina or Rod Barajas to split time with the promising but green Iannetta.
First base is set through 2011 with Helton. His ’06 offensive performance ranked 12th among first basemen. Maybe not worth the price, but not many guys can give you a .400 OBP. He is taking up 35% of the payroll, however. Helton has an out clause after ’07, but I don’t see him abandoning $69MM for four seasons.
The middle infield is good to go, with Tulo and Matsui seemingly the main guys and Carroll playing the utility role. Atkins trailed only Miguel Cabrera for the best offensive season for a third baseman in 2006. He progressed beyond expectations by hitting a robust .329/.409/.556 in almost 700 PAs.
Can’t go wrong with Holliday and Hawpe at the corners, especially for the price. I’m not sure what the plan is for 25 year-old outfielder Jeff Baker, but some projections like him quite a bit for next year. He may steal some time from Hawpe, according to Clint Hurdle.
Of course the big need for this team is center field. A slew of candidates have been mentioned: Aaron Rowand, Dave Roberts, Chris Burke, Jay Payton, Darin Erstad, Brady Clark, Steve Finley, Coco Crisp, and even Clint Barmes. The only free agent I haven’t seen connected in print to Colorado is Kenny Lofton.
If O’Dowd prefers, that CF could come via trade. Jason Jennings is generating some buzz, and reports say that the Rockies are listening to offers. He averaged over 6.6 innings per start this season and posted a 3.78 ERA. He’ll be just 28 in 2007. However, free agency is around the corner and Jennings could easily post a 4.50 ERA in ’07 based on his peripherals.
Jennings is still a hittable pitcher with subpar command right now. I would shop him aggressively for the next month and definitely trade him before the season begins. Last winter, Kevin Towers’s Adam Eaton situation was comparable to this. He snagged Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez in that deal. It’s a shame Jennings didn’t win nearly as many games as he deserved to, or his market value would be even higher.
Elsewhere in the rotation, the Rockies have talked about several guys to fill out the last slot: Josh Fogg again, Rodrigo Lopez via trade, Carl Pavano trade, or free agents Bruce Chen or John Thomson. Thomson wouldn’t cost much and he came up through the organization. The Rox sent Thomson to the Mets in an ’02 trade for Jay Payton.
For the sixth starter type spot, hard-throwing 23 year-old Ubaldo Jimenez could work after a fine 13 start effort at Double A this year. Chin-Hui Tsao, rehabbing from rotator cuff surgery, could work his way back into the mix.
The pen has some live arms, but the Rockies are looking for help. Many players have the team’s interest: Octavio Dotel, David Riske, Dan Kolb, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Williamson, Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, and even Eric Gagne. Look for a low-level signing or two.
To sum it up, the Rockies have a center fielder and a couple of relievers in their sights. I have my doubts that the Rockies would lock Jennings up for four or five years at $10-12MM annually, so a trade this year seems likely. Pretty much every team wants pitching, and there are plenty good young CFs available.
Matt Holliday is Rockie property through 2009, though he hired Scott Boras this year and will probably go year-to-year for the duration of his Rockie career. The Rox had looked to lock him up last winter until he switched to Boras.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Rangers would like to retain free agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., but competition could be fierce if he hits the market. It’s important to remember that Sarge Jr. will be entering his age 32 season in 2007. Perhaps his athleticism will help him age better.
While Matthews’s .372 OBP is a career high, you’ll notice that it’s entirely batting average driven. He hasn’t improved his walk rate at all this season. The improvement in batting average is tied to more frequent contact – he’s up to 84% in that department. He’s also got a career high SLG. The increase can be attributed to doubles and triples, as Matthews’s flyball percentage and home runs per flyball have not changed. It stands to reason that he’ll regress to something near .270/.330/.440 in 2007.
Matthews has been abandoned by the Padres (twice), Cubs, Pirates, Orioles (twice), Braves, and Mets. He’s dealt with all kinds of injuries in the past few years: ribcage strain, hamstring strain, calf strain, sliced thumb from slicing a bagel, and wrist tendinitis.
Despite all this, I’m not down on Matthews as a free agent signing. The average center fielder hits about .270/.335/.425 and plays, well, average defense. Matthews should be able to hit a little better than that and play plus defense. Sure, he’ll decline from his career season. But CFs like Matthews don’t grow on trees. Would you rather have the defense of Dave Roberts out there?
Lately the possibility has been raised of the Mariners signing Matthews. This would be an odd signing, given the Mariners’ decent outfield arrangement and dire need for starting pitching.
Should the Rangers fail to retain Matthews, both Chicago teams, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rockies could all be interested. I’d be impressed if any team could get him for fewer than three years. He made $2.4MM this year, but could command $7-8MM annually on the open market.
By Tim Dierkes | at
There’s been some chatter about Dave Roberts lately – he’ll be a coveted free agent this winter. Back in July, I discussed Roberts in my center fielder free agent market review:
"Roberts, 34, is best known for his stolen base in the 2004 ALCS. He’s solidly above average at hitting but is ranked just 30th on defense. He’s got a weak arm but was a solid defender prior to 2005. According to the Fielding Bible, Roberts still has his speed and range so he should bounce back defensively if healthy. He’s been moved to left field to make an excellent pair with Mike Cameron. If someone can snag him for $3-4 mil and get him 500 ABs, he’s a fine option. It’s just that he has a lengthy injury history."
It just so happens that in his contract year, Roberts looks to set career highs in at-bats, batting average, and on-base percentage. The Padres have enjoyed his .382 OBP mark (18th in the league) at the top of their order. He’s also stolen bases at better than a 90% clip. His $2.25MM salary is a bargain, and he’ll have plenty of suitors.
Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently mentioned that the White Sox and Cardinals are already showing some interest. Rockies beat writer Troy E. Renck throws Colorado’s hat into the ring.
A few other possibilities: the Blue Jays could go after Roberts if they decide to trade Vernon Wells. The Rangers could get involved if Gary Matthews Jr. departs. Ditto for the Cubs if they don’t retain Juan Pierre.
By Tim Dierkes | at
A couple of small deals came over the wires recently.
The Rangers acquired outfielder Victor Diaz for catcher Mike Nickeas. Diaz, 24, is having big-time problems with Triple A this season (.606 OPS). It’s surprising because he hit Triple A pitching pretty well as a 22 year-old. He earned 280 ABs with the big club last year and managed to slug .468.
Back in the summer of ’03, Diaz was sent from the Dodgers to the Mets in the Jeromy Burnitz deal. He’s not known for his defense, and has been tried at 1B, 2B, 3B, C, LF, and RF in his career. Perhaps a steady position and a change of scenery will get this once top-prospect back on track.
Nickeas is a 23 year-old catcher from Georgia Tech. He has never done much offensively at Double A and will report to the Class A St. Lucie Mets. He could be a Major League backup a few years down the road.
Speaking of backup backstops, the Orioles claimed Danny Ardoin off waivers from the Rockies. He’s a 32 year-old minor league lifer. It’s hard to make this move sound interesting. He played with Miguel Tejada in the minors, does that help?
By Tim Dierkes | at
Reportedly, a Royals TV affiliate in Kansas City is saying that Jeremy Affeldt has gone through the clubhouse to say goodbyes. Word from MLB Radio is that Affeldt was sent to Colorado along with Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann.
This one’s been in the works for a while now, dating back to July 19th.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s tough to get anything out of Boston these days; Theo Epstein has plugged all of his leaks. Let’s see what we can piece together though.
According to Sean McAdams of The Providence Journal:
"Friends of the Rocket insist he’s sorry that he chose the Astros over the Red Sox." McAdams mentions that Clemens would love a trade to Boston if it could be done without infuriating the Houston fanbase. Also, a source of mine tells me that the Mets have inquired about Clemens.
Then there’s the possible three-way trade with the Rockies and Padres. The Padres would get Mike Lowell, the Red Sox would get Ryan Shealy and a starter, and who knows what the Rockies would get.
Don’t get that rumor confused with the other three-team scenario from Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe. In that case, the Red Sox get Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink, the Padres get Mike Lowell, and the D-Rays get prospects.
Plus, Jayson Stark mentioned last night that the Red Sox are "making a late run at Alfonso Soriano." He doesn’t have much more than that, but it can’t be dismissed. Stark has also connected Boston to Jason Schmidt and Brad Lidge.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Let’s run down all the possible trades Dave Littlefield and the Pirates have brewing.
The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review still has Oakland as the favorite for Sean Casey, a move that makes little sense to me.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette mentions a possible swap of John Grabow for Ryan Shealy. That sounds reasonable.
Dejan Kovacevic’s article also indicates that the Mets and Yankees are leading the charge for Kip Wells. The Yankees also want Craig Wilson and Roberto Hernandez. Wilson and Wells seem unlikely at this point, though, as the Abreu deal looks close.
By Tim Dierkes | at
To begin with, this just isn’t true. With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud. That honor belongs to 2005 for sure. The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.
Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest. The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers. In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb. Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.
Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base. Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.
Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more.
Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens. The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.
Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez? Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto? How about the Rockies?
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