2007 MLB Free Agents: Gary Matthews Jr.
The Rangers would like to retain free agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., but competition could be fierce if he hits the market. It’s important to remember that Sarge Jr. will be entering his age 32 season in 2007. Perhaps his athleticism will help him age better.
While Matthews’s .372 OBP is a career high, you’ll notice that it’s entirely batting average driven. He hasn’t improved his walk rate at all this season. The improvement in batting average is tied to more frequent contact – he’s up to 84% in that department. He’s also got a career high SLG. The increase can be attributed to doubles and triples, as Matthews’s flyball percentage and home runs per flyball have not changed. It stands to reason that he’ll regress to something near .270/.330/.440 in 2007.
Matthews has been abandoned by the Padres (twice), Cubs, Pirates, Orioles (twice), Braves, and Mets. He’s dealt with all kinds of injuries in the past few years: ribcage strain, hamstring strain, calf strain, sliced thumb from slicing a bagel, and wrist tendinitis.
Despite all this, I’m not down on Matthews as a free agent signing. The average center fielder hits about .270/.335/.425 and plays, well, average defense. Matthews should be able to hit a little better than that and play plus defense. Sure, he’ll decline from his career season. But CFs like Matthews don’t grow on trees. Would you rather have the defense of Dave Roberts out there?
Lately the possibility has been raised of the Mariners signing Matthews. This would be an odd signing, given the Mariners’ decent outfield arrangement and dire need for starting pitching.
Should the Rangers fail to retain Matthews, both Chicago teams, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rockies could all be interested. I’d be impressed if any team could get him for fewer than three years. He made $2.4MM this year, but could command $7-8MM annually on the open market.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Dave Roberts
There’s been some chatter about Dave Roberts lately – he’ll be a coveted free agent this winter. Back in July, I discussed Roberts in my center fielder free agent market review:
"Roberts, 34, is best known for his stolen base in the 2004 ALCS. He’s solidly above average at hitting but is ranked just 30th on defense. He’s got a weak arm but was a solid defender prior to 2005. According to the Fielding Bible, Roberts still has his speed and range so he should bounce back defensively if healthy. He’s been moved to left field to make an excellent pair with Mike Cameron. If someone can snag him for $3-4 mil and get him 500 ABs, he’s a fine option. It’s just that he has a lengthy injury history."
It just so happens that in his contract year, Roberts looks to set career highs in at-bats, batting average, and on-base percentage. The Padres have enjoyed his .382 OBP mark (18th in the league) at the top of their order. He’s also stolen bases at better than a 90% clip. His $2.25MM salary is a bargain, and he’ll have plenty of suitors.
Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently mentioned that the White Sox and Cardinals are already showing some interest. Rockies beat writer Troy E. Renck throws Colorado’s hat into the ring.
A few other possibilities: the Blue Jays could go after Roberts if they decide to trade Vernon Wells. The Rangers could get involved if Gary Matthews Jr. departs. Ditto for the Cubs if they don’t retain Juan Pierre.
Minor Moves: Diaz, Ardoin
A couple of small deals came over the wires recently.
The Rangers acquired outfielder Victor Diaz for catcher Mike Nickeas. Diaz, 24, is having big-time problems with Triple A this season (.606 OPS). It’s surprising because he hit Triple A pitching pretty well as a 22 year-old. He earned 280 ABs with the big club last year and managed to slug .468.
Back in the summer of ’03, Diaz was sent from the Dodgers to the Mets in the Jeromy Burnitz deal. He’s not known for his defense, and has been tried at 1B, 2B, 3B, C, LF, and RF in his career. Perhaps a steady position and a change of scenery will get this once top-prospect back on track.
Nickeas is a 23 year-old catcher from Georgia Tech. He has never done much offensively at Double A and will report to the Class A St. Lucie Mets. He could be a Major League backup a few years down the road.
Speaking of backup backstops, the Orioles claimed Danny Ardoin off waivers from the Rockies. He’s a 32 year-old minor league lifer. It’s hard to make this move sound interesting. He played with Miguel Tejada in the minors, does that help?
Report: Affeldt, Bautista Dealt For Shealy
Reportedly, a Royals TV affiliate in Kansas City is saying that Jeremy Affeldt has gone through the clubhouse to say goodbyes. Word from MLB Radio is that Affeldt was sent to Colorado along with Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann.
This one’s been in the works for a while now, dating back to July 19th.
Red Sox Trade Rumors
It’s tough to get anything out of Boston these days; Theo Epstein has plugged all of his leaks. Let’s see what we can piece together though.
According to Sean McAdams of The Providence Journal:
"Friends of the Rocket insist he’s sorry that he chose the Astros over the Red Sox." McAdams mentions that Clemens would love a trade to Boston if it could be done without infuriating the Houston fanbase. Also, a source of mine tells me that the Mets have inquired about Clemens.
Then there’s the possible three-way trade with the Rockies and Padres. The Padres would get Mike Lowell, the Red Sox would get Ryan Shealy and a starter, and who knows what the Rockies would get.
Don’t get that rumor confused with the other three-team scenario from Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe. In that case, the Red Sox get Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink, the Padres get Mike Lowell, and the D-Rays get prospects.
Plus, Jayson Stark mentioned last night that the Red Sox are "making a late run at Alfonso Soriano." He doesn’t have much more than that, but it can’t be dismissed. Stark has also connected Boston to Jason Schmidt and Brad Lidge.
Pirates Trade Rumors
Let’s run down all the possible trades Dave Littlefield and the Pirates have brewing.
The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review still has Oakland as the favorite for Sean Casey, a move that makes little sense to me.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette mentions a possible swap of John Grabow for Ryan Shealy. That sounds reasonable.
Dejan Kovacevic’s article also indicates that the Mets and Yankees are leading the charge for Kip Wells. The Yankees also want Craig Wilson and Roberto Hernandez. Wilson and Wells seem unlikely at this point, though, as the Abreu deal looks close.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left
To begin with, this just isn’t true. With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud. That honor belongs to 2005 for sure. The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.
Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest. The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers. In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb. Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.
Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base. Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.
Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more.
Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens. The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.
Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez? Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto? How about the Rockies?
Royals Rumors: Ryan Shealy
According to my Royals source, Dayton Moore has finished evaluating his roster and the team is about to become quite active in the trade market.
You saw the Mark Redman rumor yesterday. Today MLBTradeRumors has learned of a possible deal in the works between the Rockies and Royals. The Rox are looking for relievers, and the Royals have Elmer Dessens and Jeremy Affeldt available. Mike MacDougal also has a chance to be dealt. The Royals would prefer to unload shortstop Angel Berroa and just one reliever to get first baseman Ryan Shealy. That way other relievers could snag more value in separate deals.
Shealy has had all kinds of suitors over the last few months, and he is likely to be dealt for relief help this month.
Lining Up For Shealy
It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight. These are all from various newspapers.
The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez. Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP. He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston. Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control. Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye. Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.
Then there’s the Orioles. Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn. It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages. The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35. That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played. He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy. Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system.
It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix. The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy. Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.
The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have). Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma. Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit. He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season. The persistent walk problem remains. Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.
One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit. Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A. Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May. So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.
Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment). He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.
Kaz Matsui Sent To Rockies
The Mets finally decided to bite the bullet and eat Kaz Matsui‘s awful contract, sending him to the Rockies. The best they could do for him was Eli Marrero, a 32 year-old journeyman who plays catcher, first base, and outfield.
In searching for positives about bringing in Marrero, I must note his solid .467 slugging percentage in 60 at-bats this year. Marrero once hit 18 HR in less than 400 at-bats (2002 Cardinals) so he does provide a little right-handed pop off the bench.
Matsui has agreed to the deal and will report to Triple A for a little while. The Rockies probably want him to prepare as a shortstop, a position he hasn’t played since 2004. Matsui posted a woeful .504 OPS in 130 at-bats this year, which is actually worse than Clint Barmes‘s .558 mark. There’s at least some hope that the 27 year-old Barmes can snap out of it and at least hit like a league average shortstop. Still, this isn’t a gamble for Colorado since the Mets are paying Matsui’s $8MM salary.