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Rockies Place Jon Gray, Jordan Sheffield On 10-Day Injured List

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3:31PM: Gray has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right flexor strain, the Rockies announced.  Right-hander Jordan Sheffield is also headed to the 10-day injured list due to a right lat strain.  Left-handers Ben Bowden and Lucas Gilbreath have been called up from Triple-A to fill the roster spots.

8:29AM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray left Friday’s game after 2 1/3 innings due to what manager Bud Black described as right elbow soreness and tightness in Gray’s forearm.  Gray was charged with five runs in the abbreviated outing, with the injury clearly a factor.

“When I spoke to Jon, he indicated that his soreness impacted his pitching,” Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters.  “I don’t think he felt it on every pitch.  It started to tighten as the game went on.  That’s when we noticed the variability with his pitch-making and with his mannerisms.”

In the bigger picture, any sort of forearm or elbow issue is naturally a major concern for a pitcher.  It seems likely that Gray will miss at least one start for precautionary reasons if nothing else due to the nature of the injury, and a trip to the injured list shouldn’t be ruled out until Gray undergoes further testing and medical examination.  Gray has generally avoided any major arm injuries over the years, apart from the shoulder inflammation that prematurely ended his 2020 season in early September.

While it’s too early to ring the alarm on a potential Tommy John surgery, an injury that sidelines Gray for any noteworthy amount of time will have some ramifications on both his future and the Rockies’ trade deadline plans.  In the opinion of MLBTR’s Steve Adams, Gray is nothing less than the top trade candidate in baseball at this point in the season, owing to Colorado’s spot near the bottom of the standings, Gray’s decent numbers through 63 innings, and the righty’s impending free agent status.

An IL stint of anything more than a month or so would throw a wrench into Gray’s trade value, or perhaps prevent a deal altogether if teams are concerned about Gray’s arm.  Similarly, Gray’s ability to score a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter could be hampered, perhaps to the point where he’d have to settle for a one-year deal.

Gray had been inconsistent in the three starts prior to last night’s injury-shortened appearance, and for the season, he has posted a 4.29 ERA/4.72 SIERA over 63 innings.  His 18.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both below average, but Gray’s overall Statcast outlook is not bad, and his 52.4% grounder rate is a career high.  Though Gray has been much better at Coors Field than on the road this season, he has some value as a potential change-of-scenery candidate who could perhaps thrive in a more normal pitching environment than the thin air of Colorado.

Rockies Notes: Story, Joe, Trejo, Bowden

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The Rockies can breathe a sigh of relief: There is no structural damage to Trevor Story’s elbow, per the Athletic’s Nick Groke (via Twitter). The star shortstop’s MRI came back clean, so the Rockies can now look forward to his return as early as next Tuesday.

While the biggest news out of Colorado was no doubt results of that MRI, they also completed a couple of roster moves. The Rockies recalled infielder Alan Trejo from Triple-A and optioned Connor Joe.

Joe has done a nice job in 52 plate appearances, particularly getting on base with a .365 OBP, but the 25-year-old Trejo brings the ability to play up the middle. At least while Story is out, Trejo provides the Rockies with more defensive insurance, especially as they run with a four-man bench. Trejo made his Major League debut earlier this season, slashing .216/.268/.270 in 41 plate appearances.

Yesterday, southpaw Ben Bowden was reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A, per the team. The 26-year-old Vanderbilt product posted a 6.39 ERA/4.54 FIP in 15 appearances prior to the left shoulder strain that landed him on the injured list.

Rockies Place Trevor Story On 10-Day Injured List, Reinstate Matt Adams

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The Rockies have placed shortstop Trevor Story on the 10-day injured list with right elbow inflammation, retroactive to yesterday. Matt Adams has been reinstated from the injured list to take his roster spot, per the team.

Story’s health will now be a top article for the Rockies moving forward. This is an injury he dealt with back in 2018, notes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. There’s plenty of time to get him back into the lineup to prove his health before peak trade season, however. The Rockies, of course, have to consider their trade options for Story, a free agent at the end of the season. His numbers are down a touch thus far with a triple slash line of .255/.322/.424 through 205 plate appearances, though there would still be plenty of interest should the Rockies ultimately decide to deal their franchise player. In the meantime, Brendan Rodgers steps in at short in what could prove to be an audition for the role in the long-term.

Adams, 32, returns to his role primarily as a bopper off the bench. “Big City” hasn’t had much opportunity since slugging 20 home runs for the World Champion Nationals in 2019. He has stepped to the plate just 72 times between this year and last for the Braves and Rockies, respectively. In total, Adams has just two long balls in that span with a .162/.208/.279 slash line.

Lucas Gilbreath has also been recalled to serve as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader, notes Fangraphs’ Roster Resource architect Jason Martinez. The 25-year-old southpaw has an 8.59 ERA over 7 1/3 innings this season, the first Major League action of his career.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Pitchers

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We took a look last week at some of the minor league pacts that have paid the most dividends, focusing in on position players in both leagues. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of offense throughout baseball as a whole at the moment, there are even more success stories on the pitching side of the coin. Some of these are products of small sample size, particularly for the many relievers on the list, but at least for our initial check-in on this subject, the early returns have been strong.

  1. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: We’re nearing Memorial Day weekend, and Kennedy is tied for the American League lead in saves — just as everyone expected! The 36-year-old righty isn’t just scraping by and narrowly escaping in a bunch of three-run leads, though. He’s tallied 19 1/3 innings and allowed just four runs, all while recording a terrific 31.1 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 5.4 percent walk rate. If Texas remains near the bottom of the AL West standings, he’ll be an appealing trade target for bullpen-needy clubs.
  2. Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Mariners: A quality setup man with the 2017-18 Marlins, Steckenrider’s time in Miami was derailed by injuries — most notably a 2019 flexor strain. He looks to be back on track in his new surroundings, however, having tossed 18 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and an 11.1 percent walk rate. The walks are a bit elevated, but he’s helped to combat that with a career-best 54 percent ground-ball mark. The Mariners (or another club) could control Steckenrider through 2023 via arbitration as well, which only adds to the value.
  3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Dodgers:  The Dodgers just placed Nelson on the injured list due to a forearm issue, so there are (once again) some obvious health question marks with Nelson. There’s no ignoring how effective he’s been thus far, however. Nelson’s 39.1 percent strikeout rate is the ninth-best among all MLB relievers, and he’s paired that with a pristine 2.41 ERA. Like Shaw, he’s walked too many batters (13 percent), but the former Brewers ace has shown high-leverage, late-inning potential with L.A.
  4. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: Shaw was an iron man in the Cleveland ’pen but flopped in Colorado after signing a three-year, $27MM contract going into 2018. Back in his old stomping grounds, he’s tallied 19 innings with a pristine 1.42 ERA. The 33-year-old has issued 13 walks, so he’ll need to cut back on the free passes if he hopes to continue this success, but Shaw’s strikeout and ground-ball percentages are among the best of his career (29.3 percent, 57.5 percent, respectively).
  5. Lucas Luetge, LHP, Yankees: Luetge’s last MLB appearance prior to his Yankees debut came with the 2015 Mariners. The now-34-year-old southpaw signed minor league deals with five organizations before making it back to the show, which is remarkable in and of itself. That he’s been one of the Yankees’ best relievers, however, makes his story all the more incredible. Luetge, who entered 2021 with all of 89 MLB frames under his belt, has a 2.95 ERA and a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings for the Yankees thus far. Considering the injuries to Zack Britton and Darren O’Day, Luetge’s unexpected contributions have been a godsend. If he can keep this up, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 season.
  6. Hyeon-jong Yang, LHP, Rangers: Yang, a former KBO MVP, could’ve returned to that league on a guaranteed deal but refused to give up on his aspirations of playing in the Majors, even if it meant taking a non-guaranteed pact. He’s 21 1/3 innings into the realization of that lifelong goal, and the Rangers are no doubt pleased with their decision. Yang, 33, opened the season with the Rangers’ alternate site group but had his contract selected in late April. He now owns a 3.38 ERA, and while his pedestrian strikeout and walk rates might point to some possible regression, he’s induced plenty of weak contact (average 87.4 mph exit velocity, just a 13.1 percent line-drive rate). An 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there could be more K’s to come, as well.
  7. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies: Gonzalez’s numbers don’t stand out that much, but he’s eating innings and delivering roughly league-average run-prevention numbers when adjusting for his home park (102 ERA+, 99 ERA-). Through nine appearances, seven of them starts, Gonzalez is carrying a 4.54 ERA. He’s totaled 41 2/3 innings for a Rockies club that has gone the whole season without lefty Kyle Freeland. Gonzalez has rattled off consecutive quality starts and helped the Rox get through the first two months of the season. The secondary marks aren’t great, but average innings have value — especially in 2021 when teams are so conscientious about their pitchers’ workloads.
  8. Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Padres: Crismatt had just 8 1/3 innings of MLB experience (all with the 2020 Cardinals) when he arrived in Padres camp this spring. He’s more than doubled that total in 2021 already, pitching 17 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball with a hefty 52.2 percent grounder rate. Crismatt is an oddity in today’s game, sitting under 89 mph with a fastball that is only seldom used due to the fact that he throws his changeup at a whopping 46.5 percent clip. It’s weird, but so far — it’s worked.
  9. Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: A 26-year-old rookie who never pitched above Double-A with the Royals or Brewers before joining the Marlins on a minor league deal this winter, Bender is sitting 97.4 mph with his heater and has tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to open his career. He’s whiffed 36.7 percent of his opponents against a 3.3 percent walk rate. Small sample? Sure, but Bender also rattled off 8 1/3 shutout frames during Spring Training, too. Not bad for a guy who posted a 5.48 ERA with the independent American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen in 2020.
  10. Heath Hembree, RHP, Reds:  After a rough 2020 season, Hembree has bounced back early in 2021. His 4.15 ERA through 13 frames is nothing special, but his strikeout rate is sitting at a career-high 33.3 percent after plummeting in 2020. His 6.3 percent walk rate is a career-best, and his 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t far off from his peak years in Boston. Hembree’s velocity is also up to 95.2 mph after dipping to 93.9 mph in 2019-20. It’s early, but those are some encouraging indicators.
  11. Zack Littell, RHP, Giants: Littell hasn’t spent much time with the Giants yet, but he’s chucked 10 2/3 innings and held opponents to just one run on eight hits and three walks with nine punchouts. His 94.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-high, as is his 48.3 percent grounder rate. The former Twins righty only has a year of big league service and could be controllable for several years if he figures it out in San Francisco.
  12. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Athletics: It’s hard to believe Guerra just turned 32, given that he was one of the pieces traded from the Mets to the Twins way back in 2008’s Johan Santana trade. He’s bounced around the league in journeyman style but is enjoying a nice run with the A’s to kick off the ’21 season. In 20 2/3 frames, Guerra has a 3.92 ERA with a pedestrian K-BB% but intriguing levels of weak contact induced.
  13. JT Chargois, RHP, Mariners: Like Littell, Chargois hasn’t seen much time in the bigs yet, but he’s sporting a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings for Seattle. He’s had multiple chances with the Twins and Dodgers in recent years but never found much consistency. Chargois also mustered only a 5.81 ERA pitching for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2020. Still, it’s a nice start to his 2021 season.
  14. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Brewers: The right-hander, who’ll turn 33 this week, has hurled 17 1/3 innings so far in Milwaukee and pitched to a 4.15 ERA but with a more impressive 17-to-3 K/BB mark. As with many relievers early in a given season, the bulk of the damage against Boxberger came in one appearance (against the Cardinals). He’s been unscored upon in 16 of his 19 outings so far in 2021.
  15. Ervin Santana, RHP, Royals: The Royals love their reunions more than any team in baseball, and Santana is somewhat improbably back to “smelling baseball,” as he likes to say, for a second stint in Kansas City. He’s only allowed four runs in 15 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA), but he’s also only picked up eight strikeouts against four walks. His fastball is sitting 93 mph again after living at 89-90 in 2018-19, but the red flags are plentiful: 13.1 percent strikeout rate, 91 percent strand rate, .213 BABIP, 45 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate.
  16. Paolo Espino, RHP, Nationals: The Nats quietly re-signed the now 34-year-old Espino before the calendar even flipped to November last year. So far, it’s been a worthwhile reunion, as he’s held opponents to four runs on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 14 innings (2.57 ERA). Espino won’t keep this up if he can’t miss some more bats and/or induce far more grounders, however. He’s currently benefiting from a .175 BABIP and an 83.3 percent strand rate, while his 26.6 percent grounder rate will make it to limit home runs. Still, the Nats have 14 innings of decent results to show for the deal.

As with the position players, some of these strong starts will fade. There are a few at the back of the list that look particularly difficult to sustain, but there also look to be some genuine bargains unearthed among this group. Some will likely result in trades (Kennedy), but it’d make for a fun story to follow should any of the controllable arms (e.g. Bender, Crismatt) ultimately emerge as long-term pieces for the clubs who gave them their best career opportunities to date.

Erik Kratz Makes Sign-Stealing Allegations

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Former catcher Erik Kratz recently levied some eyebrow-raising allegations of sign-stealing against a couple of National League teams while a guest with John J. Filippelli and Kevin Sullivan on Curtain Call of the YES Network. When asked for his opinion about the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, Kratz said, “I can tell you that a team that has been to the World Series often recently, we caught them doing something almost similar.”

Since the Dodgers are the only team to have been to the World Series multiple times in recent years (besides the Astros), it seems Kratz is implying the Dodgers took part in some kind of sign-stealing during the 2018 season. He did not expound any further about their specific actions in this podcast, and did not name the Dodgers directly.

Robert Murray of The Athletic wrote in October 2018 during the NLCS between the Dodgers and Brewers, “There is concern among some Brewers that the Dodgers are using video to pick up their signs,” adding, “Others in the organization are unsure.”  That article made clear that the Brewers understood that stealing signs from the dugout or basepaths was fair play, while the use of technology would be crossing a line – the commonly held stance on the issue.  Murray reported that the Brewers told MLB’s video room security people of their suspicions, but “The security personnel responded that they had not detected anything.”

On the recent podcast, Kratz made a more specific claim against the Rockies, saying, “…And I can also tell you, cause I don’t really care, I don’t know anybody over there: the Colorado Rockies were doing the exact same thing in 2018…They used to take a Theragun and bang it on their metal bench. And they were doing the exact same thing from the TV. So, there you go. If you think no one else was doing it, you are wrong. The difference is, the Astros may have taken it a little too far.”

Kratz’s point on the whole seemed to be that he thought the Astros were being singled out for actions that were more widespread throughout the game. Certainly, the treatment of sign-stealing as a singular instance of misconduct has been a concern expressed elsewhere. That said, Kratz’s comments are certain to require some follow-up by MLB, given the specific allegations.

For context, Kratz was a member of the Brewers during the 2018 season. The Brewers played both the Rockies and Dodgers that postseason, defeating Colorado in the NLDS and falling to Los Angeles in a seven-game NLCS.  He was also a member of the Astros briefly during the 2016 season, prior to the time of the sign-stealing allegations.

Kratz last played in 2020 in a part-time capacity for the Yankees. He made the decision not to play in 2021, presumably ending his playing career. Over 11 years since 2010 when he made his debut as a 30-year-old for the Pirates, Kratz played for nine teams, slashing .209/.256/.355 over 951 plate appearances.

Rockies Claim Rio Ruiz, Designate Bret Boswell

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The Rockies announced that that infielder Rio Ruiz has been claimed off waivers from the Orioles.  Infielder/outfielder Bret Boswell has been designated for assignment to create roster space for Ruiz.

Ruiz was a waiver claim himself back in December 2018, when the Orioles plucked him away from the Braves.  Ruiz has been a regular in his two-plus seasons in Baltimore, appearing in 213 games and receiving 718 plate appearances, but he has hit only .220/.292/.380.

Third base has been Ruiz’s primary position, both with the Orioles and in three previous seasons with the Braves.  However, Ruiz has also seen action at both second base and third base, so he brings some versatility to Colorado’s depth chart.  The Rockies have a lot of right-handed hitters on their bench, though Ruiz has actually hit lefty pitching better than righties over his career.

Boswell was selected out of the University of Texas in the eighth round of the 2017 draft.  After posting some big numbers in his first two pro seasons, Boswell spent the 2019 season with the Rockies’ Double-A affiliate, but hit a modest .219/.290/.397 over 404 PA.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Position Players

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Minor league contracts don’t generally draw much of a reaction over the course of a baseball offseason, with some rare exceptions. Everyone loves to see an out-of-the-blue comeback story on a non-guaranteed arrangement, but most minor league deals of any note are injured veterans, struggling former prospects or fringe big leaguers who have never really solidified their status as a contributor at the game’s top level. Every year, however, a handful of these no-risk investments produce solid returns.

We’re about a quarter through the 2021 season, so let’s check in on a handful of non-guaranteed pacts that have already proven to be wise investments for their clubs.

  1. Tyler Naquin, OF, Reds: Naquin’s signing was met with a collective yawn, but one Ohio club’s leftovers have turned into another’s treasure. The former Indians first-rounder has mashed his way into a regular role in Cincinnati, raking at a .265/.346/.530 clip through 133 plate appearances. Naquin parlayed a strong spring and a March injury to Shogo Akiyama into an Opening Day roster spot, but he’s now fourth on the team in plate appearances and third in wRC+ at 135 (min. 20 PAs). He’s hitting so much better than struggling center fielder Nick Senzel that Cincinnati hasn’t hesitated to move Senzel to the infield in the wake of Joey Votto’s injury, creating more playing time for Naquin. This doesn’t appear to be a mere small-sample fluke, either. Naquin ranks in the 95th percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and has similarly strong percentile rankings in hard-hit rate (84th), xwOBA (89th), xSLG (93rd) and barrel rate (90th). He’s also controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration. For an Indians club that has gotten virtually no production from its outfield over the past two seasons, watching Naquin’s start in 2021 has to sting, even if they’re happy for their former prospect on a personal level.
  2. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron’s ability to hit hasn’t really been in question since his 2014 MLB debut, but injuries have dogged him in recent years. Fresh off a season-ending knee surgery in 2020, Cron inked a non-guaranteed pact with the Rockies, made the club out of Spring Training and has unsurprisingly emerged as their primary first baseman. He’s out to an excellent start, hitting .300/.397/.500 in 116 plate appearances. Cron missed 10 days with a back strain and, unlike Naquin, is a free agent at season’s end, so he didn’t grab the top spot on this list. Still, he’s been a bright spot for the Rockies and could give them a summer trade chip if he can stay healthy. It’s still somewhat puzzling that the Tigers didn’t bring him back, given how poorly things have gone at first base in Detroit, but perhaps Cron simply liked the opportunity presented in Colorado better.
  3. Matt Duffy, 3B, Cubs: Duffy began with his MLB career with a stellar year for the 2015 Giants, in which he hit .295/.334/.428 and finished second behind current teammate Kris Bryant in NL Rookie of the Year voting. He never really followed up on that debut effort, though, as underperformance and injuries knocked him off track over the next two seasons. Duffy rebounded to play fairly well with the Rays in 2018 but wound up released after a difficult 2019 campaign. The veteran infielder spent 2020 at the Yankees alternate training site. This offseason, Duffy attracted interest from a few clubs in a coaching and/or front office capacity, but the Cubs offered him a chance to reinvigorate his playing career and have been rewarded for doing so. Duffy made the Opening Day roster and has come out with a .281/.375/.360 line over his first 104 plate appearances, his top offensive output since the aforementioned rookie season. The right-handed hitter isn’t a power threat, but he’s an above-average defensive third baseman with a good approach who makes plenty of contact. Duffy solidifying the hot corner has allowed Bryant to help out an otherwise shaky, inconsistent outfield.
  4. Jed Lowrie, 2B, Athletics: There’s something about Lowrie and the A’s that just clicks every time he dons the green and gold. In his third stint with the team after missing practically all of the 2019-20 seasons as a Met, Lowrie is improbably hitting .254/.329/.394 through 158 plate appearances. With offense down around the league and a cavernous home park, that’s good for a healthy 108 wRC+. The veteran switch-hitter’s bat has cooled since a torrid start to the season, but the early return on his no-risk minor league pact has been strong.
  5. Charlie Culberson, INF/OF, Rangers: A popular utility player wherever he goes, Culberson is well on his way to endearing himself to the Rangers’ fanbase. Through his first 97 plate appearances, the 32-year-old is hitting .264/.316/.429 with three homers. Culberson has made one-off appearances at second base, shortstop and in left field, but the bulk of his playing time has come at third base.
  6. Pablo Sandoval, INF, Braves: Atlanta fans might’ve groaned when the Braves brought the Panda back on another minor league deal, but Sandoval has thrived as a pinch-hitter and seldom-used bench bat. Sandoval has come to the plate as a pinch-hitter 26 times and homered in four of those plate appearances. On the whole, he’s hitting .250/.372/.583 through 43 plate appearances. No one expects the former All-Star to continue at this pace, and you can certainly argue that since Sandoval is effectively a dedicated pinch-hitter, this isn’t an ideal use of a roster spot. Still, it’s hard to argue with four pinch-hit dingers, and we’re talking about minor league deals here, after all.

We’ll check in on this year’s crop of minor league signees a few months from now, as it’s quite likely that we’ll see the tides turn on some of these (and other) contracts. A hot streak from Travis Shaw in Milwaukee could quickly make his deal look all the more prudent, and Connor Joe is out to a hot start with the Rox in a return from last year’s cancer diagnosis, which is a feel-good story in and of itself. At least through the season’s 25 percent mark, however, this group of bats is paying dividends for the teams that rolled the dice.

Latest On Rockies, Jon Gray

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Jon Gray has stood out as a potential trade candidate for months, and the Rockies indeed “began putting feelers out to teams regarding Gray during Spring Training,” according to FanSided’s Robert Murray.  Gray is eligible for free agency after the season and has only improved his trade value by posting a 2.93 ERA/4.19 SIERA over 46 innings so far into the 2021 campaign.

There isn’t any sense that a deal could be particularly close, since teams usually don’t make major trades this far in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.  In addition, the Rockies’ front office has also undergone a sea change since Spring Training, as Bill Schmidt took over as interim general manager earlier this month after Jeff Bridich resigned his GM post in late April.

While the GM change could make a Gray trade (and perhaps a wider-scale rebuild for the Rockies) more likely, it would count as a surprise if the right-hander was moved quite so early in the season.  That said, as Murray notes, an aggressive team could benefit by landing Gray now, and Colorado would land a larger trade package if Gray was a “rental player” for more than just the last two months of the regular season.

Gray has rebounded well from a rough 2020 season that saw him spend a lot of time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, and post a 6.69 ERA over 39 innings.  Looking at his 2021 numbers, that difference between his ERA and SIERA indicates that Gray’s performance hasn’t exactly been ace-level, as his strikeout (22.9%) and walk (9.9%) rates are both below average and he has enjoyed a .250 BABIP.  On the plus side, Gray has done a very good job of limiting hard contact, and his usually-solid grounder rate has risen to a new career best of 53.7%.

Gray has pretty even home/road splits over his career, which is no mean feat considering his home ballpark is Coors Field.  Interestingly, Gray has generally pitched better at home than on the road in recent years, including a startling split of a 2.00 ERA in 36 innings at Coors Field this season as opposed to a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings on the road.  Granted, these are very small sample sizes, but Gray’s ability to pitch effectively in the thin air of Denver makes it intriguing to see how he would fare in a more normalized pitching environment.

Some executives, in fact, believe the Rockies should try to capitalize on Gray’s success at Coors Field and try to sign him to a contract extension.  Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post also thinks extension talks are a possibility, but with an “emphasis on ’attempt,’ ” meaning that the likelihood of Gray signing a new deal seems pretty low, this close to his trip to the free agent market.  Saunders ultimately believes Gray will be traded elsewhere prior to July 30.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Rockies Place C.J. Cron On 10-Day IL

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The Rockies have placed first baseman C.J. Cron on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to May 7) with a lower back strain, per a team announcement.

This ailment has been an issue for the past several days for Cron, who last played May 5. It has temporarily derailed what has been an impressive start to the season by Cron, a minor league pickup over the winter. The 31-year-old has been the Rockies’ most productive hitter with a .290/.394/.495 line and five home runs across 109 plate appearances.

With Cron down of late, Colorado has utilized Matt Adams and Connor Joe at first base. They only have 27 plate appearances between them this year.

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