- Chris McCosky of the Detroit News has reported on separate channels that Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has suffered a back injury that will usher him to the IL. Apparently, Turnbull, who has put together a quietly effective 2019 campaign, experienced a strain during a workout Friday–a strain that persisted in a post-workout game of catch (Twitter link). In a subsequent piece, McCosky cogently points out that this injury could actually serve as a convenient means of limiting Turnbull’s innings–the 26-year-old was expected to pitch around 140 frames this year and had already logged 98.2 entering the weekend (link).
Tigers Rumors
Nationals Interested In Shane Greene, Sam Dyson
Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said Friday the club’s going into the July 31 trade deadline seeking controllable talent, especially in the bullpen. Already connected to relievers Mychal Givens and Jake Diekman so far this month, a couple more late-game arms are now on the Nationals’ radar. The club is interested in Tigers closer Shane Greene and Giants setup man Sam Dyson, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
Not only are Greene and Dyson thriving in 2019, but they’re under wraps via the arbitration process through next season. Greene’s currently on a $4MM salary, while Dyson is making $5MM. There’s plenty of value in both cases, but if acquiring either would force the Nationals to give up prized shortstop prospect Carter Kieboom, it’s not going to happen. The Nats haven’t been willing to include Kieboom “in any deal,” according to Jamal Collier of MLB.com, and the Tigers were unsurprisingly turned down when they asked for Kieboom in exchange for Greene.
Widely regarded as one of the game’s premier prospects, the 21-year-old Kieboom would indeed be a big ask for a year-plus of a reliever, even though the Nationals are desperate for bullpen help. Despite having been weighed down by one of the majors’ worst relief groups from the get-go this year, the Nationals have gotten off to a 51-45 start and hold a one-game lead over the NL’s No. 1 wild-card spot.
With the Giants also in contention (they’re just 3 1/2 back of the Nats), acquiring Dyson could be difficult for Washington. Regardless, based on his performance this season, the 31-year-old Dyson would be an enormous get for the Nats’ relief corps. The right-hander has logged a sterling 2.68 ERA/2.67 FIP with 8.81 K/9, 1.15 BB/9 and a 55.1 percent groundball rate over 47 innings.
The 30-year-old Greene, also a righty, has put up similarly impressive numbers this season as the Tigers’ closer. Not only has Greene saved 22 of 24 chances, but he has recorded an eye-popping 1.03 ERA across 35 frames. Like Dyson, Greene’s strikeout, walk and grounder numbers are terrific. He has fanned 9.51 and walked 2.57 batters per nine, adding a 53.9 percent grounder mark for good measure. As we noted earlier this week, there’s quite a bit of good fortune baked into Greene’s output, but he has nonetheless impressed in 2019. And unlike San Francisco, Detroit’s way out of contention, making it almost a lock the Tigers will deal Greene by the deadline.
Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Pitchers
Seven months after signing right-hander Matt Harvey to an $11MM guarantee, the Angels are moving on from the floundering former ace. By my count, Harvey’s one of eight pitchers to receive at least $5MM on a one-year contract since the winter. It’s an arbitrary amount, but as you’ll see below, most of the game’s other fairly expensive short-term hurlers also haven’t lived up to their paydays so far in 2019. To the Angels’ chagrin, Harvey’s not the lone free-agent signing of theirs on this list.
Dallas Keuchel, SP, Braves ($13MM):
- Unlike the other members of this group, Keuchel was not a winter pickup for his team. He instead went without a club until early June, owing to a steep asking price and a qualifying offer hanging over his head, before accepting the Braves’ one-year offer. The former Cy Young winner with Houston has been a mixed bag in his first month in Atlanta, though it’s worth pointing out he didn’t have the benefit of a spring training. The 31-year-old southpaw has taken the ball six times for the Braves and notched a 3.58 ERA with a 2.87 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent groundball rate, all of which are appealing. Conversely, Keuchel’s 5.23 FIP and 5.26 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings may be cause for alarm.
Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Angels ($9MM):
- Cahill was a low-cost signing entering 2018 for the Athletics, who profited from the 110 effective innings the right-hander gave them as part of a patchwork rotation. The Angels expected something similar this season, but the Cahill addition has blown up in their faces thus far. Cahill was so disappointing as a member of the Halos’ starting staff that they moved him to a relief position several weeks back. Neither role has suited the 31-year-old in 2019, evidenced by his 6.56 ERA/6.20 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 70 innings.
Cody Allen, RP, Angels ($8.5MM):
- Yet another regrettable investment for the Angels, Allen lost his place in the organization a month ago and then had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins. Allen joined the Angels off a mediocre-at-best 2018 with the Indians, but he was an imposing late-game reliever in the preceding years. The Angels were banking on Allen revisiting his halcyon days. Instead, they got a 6.26 ERA/8.39 FIP over 23 innings from the righty. Allen did fan upward of 11 hitters per nine in that span, but he also walked almost eight, induced groundballs at a measly 19.7 percent clip, gave up nine home runs, and experienced a drop in velocity for the second straight season.
CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($8MM):
- It was no surprise Sabathia and the Yankees stayed together last winter for the final season of the potential Hall of Famer’s career. The 38-year-old lefty has since repaid the Yankees with 82 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and 8.45 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. Sabathia’s 5.29 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are much less encouraging, but it’s worth noting he also outpitched those metrics in the prior couple years after reinventing himself as a soft-contact specialist. While Sabathia’s average exit velocity against has gone up more than 2 mph since last year, per Statcast, he still ranks in the league’s 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.
Derek Holland, SP/RP, Giants ($7MM):
- The former Ranger and White Sox revived his career with the Giants last season after they took a flier on him on a minor league pact. That led the Giants to bring back Holland on a guaranteed deal, but the move hasn’t worked out. Holland began the season with seven starts and 32 innings of 6.75 ERA/6.44 FIP pitching, which forced the Giants to demote him to their bullpen in the first half of May. The 32-year-old has done better as a reliever since then, though he still hasn’t been particularly good. Through 33 frames, Holland has recorded a 4.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 7.64 K/9 against 4.09 BB/9.
Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Nationals ($7MM):
- Rosenthal’s similar to Allen as a former standout closer whose career has gone in the tank recently. The Rosenthal signing went so poorly for the Nationals that they released him toward the end of June. The flamethrowing Rosenthal was a stud at times for the Cardinals from 2012-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in the last of those seasons and sat out all of 2018. In his return to the majors with the Nationals this year, Rosenthal logged an unfathomable 22.74 ERA with 21.32 BB/9 in 6 1/3 innings. He also spent more than a month on the injured list with a viral infection while on Washington’s roster. After the Nats cut Rosenthal, he caught on with the Tigers on a minor league contract. The 29-year-old is now back in the majors with rebuilding Detroit, having tossed a pair of scoreless innings and posted two strikeouts and two walks as a Tiger.
Tyson Ross, SP, Tigers ($5.75MM):
- As has often been the case during Ross’ career, an injury – an elbow issue this time – has largely kept him from contributing. Ross hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 10, nor does it look as if a return is imminent. Before landing on the shelf, Ross, 32, put up an ugly 6.11 ERA/5.99 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 frames. Ross was serviceable last year between San Diego and St. Louis, however, so the Tigers were likely hoping he’d perform similarly over this season’s first few months and turn into a trade chip around the July 31 deadline. That dream died weeks ago.
Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Targets
July 19: The Phillies have also shown some level of interest in Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Given that Stroman is eminently available and arguably the most likely pitcher in baseball to be traded in the next two weeks, it’d be a surprise if Philadelphia (or any other team eyeing rotation upgrades) hadn’t reached out to Toronto to express interest.
July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner. Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.
The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market. As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.
Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation. Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery. Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.
Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent. This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.
This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books. While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility. Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.
Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM. The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.
Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list. While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.
Nicholas Castellanos Discusses Trade Rumors
Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer turned in a terrific performance Thursday in a win over the Tigers, striking out 10 and yielding three earned runs on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings. Despite Bauer’s importance to the playoff-contending Indians, his name has been frequently bandied about in trade rumors this summer. As a result, Thursday could’ve been one of his last starts as a member of the Tribe. Asked after the game if the rumors have been on his mind, Bauer told Mandy Bell of MLB.com and other reporters: “Nope. Don’t think about it.” Notably, though, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti did address the team regarding the deadline “to make sure no one was blindsided by any discussions, especially Bauer,” Bell writes.
- The Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos is likely a more realistic trade candidate than Bauer, but the right fielder suggested Thursday he’s not fully convinced a deal will come together before the deadline. Castellanos said (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that “I wouldn’t be shocked if I don’t get traded. Everybody thought I’d get traded last trade deadline. Everybody thought I’d get traded this offseason. There were people who thought I’d get traded in spring training.” With an extension between the non-contending Tigers and Castellanos appearing to be out of the question, it’s highly probable the team will part with him this month unless there’s no interest from elsewhere. Regardless, Castellanos indicated to McCosky that he has made peace with whatever happens and is more focused on what happens on the field, where he has been on an offensive tear of late.
How Good Is Shane Greene?
With the Tigers mired in a rebuild and closer Shane Greene in his second-last year of team control, the right-hander ranks as one of baseball’s most obvious trade candidates heading into the July 31 deadline. While little has gone right this year for Detroit, whose 29-62 record stands as the game’s second worst, Greene has been one of the team’s few bright lights. That’s especially encouraging for the Tigers considering they may be on the verge of dealing the All-Star to a contender.
A Tiger since they acquired him from the Yankees in a noteworthy three-team trade entering the 2015 season, Greene’s tenure in the Motor City has been a mixed bag. He was subpar in his first year with the Tigers while mostly working as a starter, and has proved inconsistent as a reliever since then. Greene’s career has continued its up-and-down trajectory this season, but 2019 has checked in on the overwhelmingly positive side in terms of results. The 30-year-old owns a near-flawless 1.06 ERA in 34 innings, during which he has converted 22 of 24 saves. Greene has racked up those numbers on a reasonable $4MM salary, which should only add to his appeal for reliever-needy contenders.
Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported last week that interested clubs view Greene as more a setup man than a closer, despite the success he has enjoyed putting a bow on rare Detroit wins this year.
The question is: Would an acquiring team be getting a real difference-maker in Greene? His ERA says yes, as do Greene’s 9.26 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, career-high 53.4 percent groundball rate and improved swinging-strike and contact rates. Furthermore, thanks in part to a personal-best 15.2 percent infield fly mark, Greene’s hard-contact rate against has tumbled from 37.5 percent last year to 27.3 this season. According to FanGraphs, just 11 relievers have yielded a lower hard-hit percentage than Greene.
Statcast only places Greene in the league’s 49th percentile in the hard-hit department, though it assigns him far better reviews in the expected slugging percentage (67th), expected weighted on-base average (80th) and expected batting average (86th) categories. It also indicates Greene has made changes to his pitch mix compared to last year, having upped his cutter usage by almost 6 percent and thrown his slider 4 percent less. Greene’s slider hasn’t produced poor results, but his cutter and his main pitch – a sinker – have been particularly tough on opposing hitters. Thus far, they’ve managed sub-.200 wOBAs against the two. Those offerings have helped Greene stymie same-handed batters, who have logged a pitiful .170 wOBA against him, and also keep lefties at bay (.271).
As effective as Greene has been in 2019, there are some red flags accompanying his performance. For one, his velocity isn’t quite where it was in 2018. Beyond that, it appears Greene has benefited greatly from luck. ERA estimators FIP (3.66), xFIP (4.04) and SIERA (3.62) paint Greene as something closer to a useful reliever than a a true shutdown option, and the .179 batting average on balls in play he has surrendered to opposing hitters likely won’t hold. The number’s a whopping 125 points below Greene’s career norm (.304). Allowing less impactful contact has helped Greene sustain that figure to this point, granted, but it’s nevertheless a good bet to climb as the season progresses. Likewise, Greene’s 86.1 percent strand rate – which is a lofty 17-plus points higher than his usual (69.0) – may regress toward his lifetime mean over the next couple months. Plus, although Greene’s aforementioned xwOBA (.282) is among the league’s best, it’s still 66 points higher than the real wOBA he has given up (.216).
It’s clear there are no shortage of reasons for optimism and pessimism in regards to Greene’s 2019 output. It’s also obvious Greene’s a capable major league reliever, though, and with another year of arbitration control left, he’ll be in demand around the deadline.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio
If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…
Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13
- Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.
Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33
- A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14
- Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84
- It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.
Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72
- Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.
Tigers Select Trevor Rosenthal
The Tigers announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Trevor Rosenthal from Triple-A Toledo. The former Cardinals closer signed a minor league pact with Detroit after being released by the Nationals in late June. Detroit’s 40-man roster is now full.
Rosenthal, 29, slogged through a catastrophic few months in the Nationals organization prior to being cut loose. In his return to the Majors following Tommy John surgery in late 2017, he turned in a stunning 22.74 ERA with nearly as many walks issued (15) as outs recorded (19). Rosenthal allowed 16 runs on eight hits and those 15 walks in just 6 1/3 innings pitched. He struck out five batters but also hit three and lost the handle on five wild pitches.
While one would think that Rosenthal’s promotion to the big leagues is a sign that his bout with the yips has improved, that curiously doesn’t appear to be the case. In 5 1/3 innings with Detroit’s affiliate in Toledo, he’s allowed six runs on eight hits and six walks. Rosenthal has punched out nine hitters, which is a mildly encouraging development, but he’s also plunked another hitter and thrown yet another wild pitch.
In spite of those ugly results, he’ll get another look in the Majors as he hopes to salvage his season before another offseason trip through free agency. For the Tigers, it’s a free look at a once-dominant reliever, but given the team’s rebuild and the extent of Rosenthal’s struggles, it seems likely that he’ll be on a short leash. If there’s no indication of legitimate improvement, there’s little reason for the Tigers to give those innings to someone who likely won’t be with the organization in 2020.
Padres Reportedly Not “Committed” To Adding Starter
Running contrary to recent reports linking the Padres to starters Matt Boyd and Noah Syndergaard, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell today indicated that the team “seems unlikely” to “push” for either pitcher. While Padres general manager A.J. Preller is willing to add a controllable starter, he’s not “committed” to doing so, Cassavell writes.
It was just this week that we heard San Diego was “evaluating” Detroit’s Boyd, and they were similarly said to have “checked in” on the availability of the Mets’ long-maned Syndergaard. Their courtship of such controllable, proven starting options dates back to at least last year’s trade deadline. However, as Cassavell points out, the team is internally striking a posture of confidence in regard to their stable of in-house starters.
“It’s the most upside, from a talent perspective, that we’ve had in the rotation,” manager Andy Green told Cassavell in reference to the Padres current big league staff. Though San Diego’s rotations have hardly been the envy of baseball during Green’s four-year stint at the helm, he may not be entirely off-base in evaluating its current staff as a promising group.
Sophomores Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi–though perhaps not perfect exemplars of “hot talent lava”–have continued to pitch effectively in their second full campaigns (3.82 and 3.75 FIPs, respectively); rookie Chris Paddack has, for his part, produced some enviable underlying stats in his first 15 career starts (9.51 K/9 and 1.97 BB/9 in 82.1 innings). Meanwhile, the whiff-inducing Dinelson Lamet was recently welcomed back to the rotation after a 2018 Tommy John procedure, and there is optimism that fellow TJ survivor Garrett Richards could bolster the rotation come September. Generally respected young arms like Cal Quantrill and Logan Allen remain on hand to provide innings, and top prospect MacKenzie Gore was recently moved up to Double-A Amarillo–though the implication of a possible late-season promotion for Gore is purely my addition.
As Cassavell notes, Padres starters have amassed a collective 4.41 ERA on the season, which ranks 14th among big league teams. At 45-46, San Diego sits just two games back in the NL Wild Card standings, so it will be interesting to follow whether the Padres are indeed content with this current group, or if they make yet another win-now gesture in pursuit of their first postseason appearance since 2006.
Grayson Greiner Experiences Setback
The Tigers had a bit of a good news/bad news day in regards to some currently injured players. Gargantuan catcher Grayson Greiner has reportedly suffered a setback in his recovery process, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Sidelined with a lower back injury since June 13th, Greiner experienced a “flare up” in that region during a rehab game with High-A Lakeland. Apparently, subsequent tests have revealed a deeper issue: “They took a scan and saw something,” said Tigers skipper Ron Gardenhire. “Not a break, but a stress area, so they’ve immobilized it.” Greiner has been shut down from all baseball activities for the moment, so catching duties will continue to be split between John Hicks and Bobby Wilson, while a potential call-up of prospect Jake Rogers still looms in the offing.
