By Tim Dierkes | at
One oif the more interesting things I heard in this week’s follow up calls after the GM Meetings was the Colorado Rockies’ interest in Lastings Milledge.
Though I keep hearing from those inside and outside of the team’s inner circle that Milledge is still a player they expect to blossom in New York, I can’t help but think that the Mets are focused on moving forward…without Lastings.
Another very interesting tidbit was a rumor of the Tigers and Reds talking Adam Dunn
By Tim Dierkes | at
I realized that I still haven’t written up the Tigers for my 2007 Team Outlooks. That’s about to change, I guess.
Dave Dombrowski’s contract obligations:
C – Ivan Rodriguez – $11MM
C – Vance Wilson – $0.95MM
1B –
2B – Placido Polanco – $4.6MM
SS – Carlos Guillen – $5MM
3B – Brandon Inge – $3MM
IF – Neifi Perez – $2.5MM
LF – Craig Monroe – $2.8MM
CF – Curtis Granderson – $0.38MM
RF – Magglio Ordonez – $12MM
OF – Marcus Thames – $0.38MM
DH – Gary Sheffield – $13MM
SP – Jeremy Bonderman – $2.3MM
SP – Justin Verlander – $1MM
SP – Kenny Rogers – $8MM
SP – Nate Robertson – $0.4025MM
SP – Mike Maroth – $2.95MM
RP – Joel Zumaya – $0.38MM
RP – Todd Jones – $5.5MM
RP – Fernando Rodney – $0.385MM
RP – Andrew Miller – $1.35MM
RP – Jason Grilli – $0.38MM
RP – Wil Ledezma – $0.38MM
RP – Zach Miner – $0.38MM
I realize this leaves off Chris Shelton, Omar Infante, and Roman Colon. But I’m trying to adhere to a 25-man roster here so cut me some slack. Before raises, the Tigers have about $79MM tied up. Inge, Monroe, Bonderman, Maroth, Robertson, and Rodney should all get raises, perhaps putting us in the $85MM range. Some deferred Sheffield money may cut that back, but you get the general idea. Detroit opened the 2006 season with an $82.6MM payroll, by comparison.
Now that Sheffield is in tow, the Tigers only main acquisition should be a first baseman. They aren’t going to get ridiculous and acquire another hitter of Sheffield’s stature. Dombrowski could chase one of these mediocre free agents, or use Shelton as a trading chip. But then, why not just play Shelton? I understand that he tanked after an incredible April, but he did some good work in 2005 and he’s just 26. Personally I would just put Shelton in a low-pressure spot in the order and see if he progresses. At least for a couple of months.
The Tigers have a surplus of no-stick middle infielders after Neifi – Ramon Santiago and Omar Infante. They’ve also got five guys who can play the outfield. That should afford flexibility and rest for the more fragile guys.
Maroth had bone chips taken out of his elbow this summer and never fully recovered. If he’s OK by spring, I think he has the fifth starter’s spot on account of his salary. Should one of the five falter, Ledezma or Miner should be capable replacements. And Miller is a starter by trade, though he could end up in the minors or the bullpen in 2007. You can see how the Tigers felt they had the depth to trade Humberto Sanchez.
The pen looks to be solid. Perhaps Zumaya should be moved into the ninth inning role, but regardless, Leyland has plenty of weapons.
The Tigers are pretty well set; just look for that first base acquisition (Kevin Millar?) and maybe one reliever. Detroit should again be right in the thick of things in the AL Central. They’ve even got the depth to cover some unforeseen circumstances.
Well, that’s all you’re getting for tonight – off to my bachelor party!
By Tim Dierkes | at
Jon Heyman reports that the Tigers have acquired Gary Sheffield for Humberto Sanchez and two Class A pitchers, Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett.
It’s a superb deal for New York at first glance, as Sanchez has great stuff and profiles as at least a middle-rotation starter for years to come. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein ranked Sanchez as the 11th best right-handed starting prospect in the game, holding him back only because of elbow concerns. The Yankees should have young guys comprising 60% of their rotation by the end of ’07.
And Whelan, if things break right, could be setting up Mariano Rivera by 2008. The 23 year-old throws four different fastballs.
That’s a lot to give up for Sheff, but credit the Tigers for making a win-now move for the patient slugger they needed. According to Heyman, "the Tigers will extend Sheffield’s contract for two years beyond the one year and $13 million remaining."
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Detroit papers this morning seem to see Gary Sheffield wearing a Tigers uniform in 2007.
On the other hand, Peter Gammons appeared on Mike & Mike this morning and saw the Cubs as the favorite with a deal that would include Mike Wuertz. Gammons thinks the deal will be done soon. And don’t forget the Padres and A’s on the fringes of this thing. You have to think the J.D. Drew situation weakens Sheffield’s market value a bit.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Mark Healey has another rumor mill up with some interesting hot stove information.
He talked to a source regarding Jeremy Bonderman, the Tigers’ 24 year-old righty. Healey says the Tigers could look to acquire Alex Rodriguez for Bonderman. In addition, the Reds reportedly offered Adam Dunn, Jason LaRue, and Brandon Phillips and were turned down. Rightfully so.
Healey also reports that Ron Belliard is the Mets’ top choice for 2B, despite today’s reports about Mark Loretta.
He’s got plenty more, including info on Manny and Mark Mulder among others.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Cardinals have been crowned the unlikely world champs, so now it’s time for all baseball fans to offically focus on 2007. Here’s a roundup of the latest rumors.
With the Tigers’ season over, the consensus among local papers seems to be that they will trade some of their excess starting pitching for a slugger, possibly a first baseman. Some folks think Jeremy Bonderman’s postseason performance (3.10 ERA in 20 innings) was a sign that he will take it to the next level in ’07. Others think it’s time to trade him with his value so high. Possible trade targets: Mark Teixeira, Todd Helton, Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, and Pat Burrell. It’s certainly feasible that Brandon Inge, Nate Robertson, or Craig Monroe could be included in a trade.
We’ll know by November 11th whether Aramis Ramirez will become a free agent. Right now, he’s not close to a deal with the Cubs. While Ramirez’s current deal is often cited as two years and $22.5MM, the third year is pretty easily guaranteed at $11MM. He just needs to play 270 games over the first two seasons. We hear a lot about the Dodgers and Angels as Ramirez’s suitors. The Dodgers would force top prospect Andy LaRoche to move from third base if they sign Ramirez. Other teams that could have interest: the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Giants, and Padres.
The Sheffield Saga continues, with the Astros and Indians entering the mix. A one-year rental from the Tribe would be a great fit in my mind.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games.
Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied. While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea. There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start. If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.
Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me. Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace. American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent.
Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s. If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually. Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers. Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week.
By Tim Dierkes | at
When we last checked in with future free agent left fielder Luis Gonzalez, he’d been informed by the D’Backs that they didn’t want him back.
Now, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a few interested teams for us:
"Don’t feel bad about Luis Gonzalez’s Diamondbacks career being over. The Orioles, Tigers, Rangers, and Cubs are already considering him as a DH and/or left fielder for next year."
Word was that Gonzo wanted to stay in the NL, meaning a return to the Cubs might be at the top of the list. The problem? The Cubs already have a left fielder, and he’s having a fine age 24 season.
Matt Murton: .294/.359/.438
Luis Gonzalez: .274/.356/.453
Given that Murton is improving and Gonzalez is on the decline, and that Gonzalez will make significantly more money, the signing wouldn’t make much sense.
If the Cubs really are interested, that should mean one of two things.
1. They plan on using Murton in center field and letting Juan Pierre go (unlikely but not the worst idea in the world if Murton could somehow pull it off on defense).
2. They are considering trading Murton (possible).
If the Cubs want to make a major trade, say involving Miguel Tejada, Murton could be a coveted player.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Lynn Henning of the Detroit News raises an interesting possibility: perhaps, with all of their starting pitching depth, the Tigers would consider trading Jeremy Bonderman this winter. Said Henning:
"He may yet be considered untouchable by the Tigers. But he will become a free agent at the end of 2008. He has also shown some fourth-year inconsistency that might be troubling to the Tigers, typified by last week’s loss at New York in less-than-inspiring fashion. Bonderman would, theoretically, be the kind of pitcher who could draw a heavy return. Conceivably, the Tigers could land a power first baseman, as well as an infield position prospect or two — the kind of players they need in a minor league system where pitchers outnumber by a good margin the hitters being developed."
Bonderman, if he stays on course, is due for a massive payday after the above-mentioned 2008 season. At that point, he’ll have just turned 26. It’s a rarity to enter free agency at such a young age, but the Tigers brought this upon themselves. Dave Dombrowski chose to promote Bonderman in 2003 with no experience above A ball. I guess they really needed him to take part in the 119 loss season. Bonderman came over the previous year with Carlos Pena as part of the Ted Lilly deal.
Despite concerns about his "inconsistency," it’s hard to view 2006 as anything but progress for Bonderman. He’s on pace to set career bests in innings, strikeout rate, walk rate, and home runs allowed. He’s thrown quality starts 57% of the time, on par with teammates Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson.
On the surface, though, Bonderman’s more mainstream stats haven’t been good enough to win over the media. His 4.01 ERA is nothing special. Then again, his component ERA comes out to 3.43. Component ERA is a Bill James invention that estimates what an ERA should be based on peripheral stats like hits, walks, and home runs allowed. It predicts next year’s ERA better than the actual. Other unappreciated unlucky hurlers based on this stat include Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, and Dave Bush.
I imagine Bonderman’s eleven wins are the other reason he’s flown under the radar. Based on Expected Wins, he should have twelve. Teammates Kenny Rogers, currently with 15 wins, also should have twelve based on the way he’s pitched. If Bonderman had a 3.43 ERA and 15 wins, he’d be looked at a bit differently right now.
It’ll be interesting to see if the perception of Bonderman results in a deal this winter. He’ll be 24 entering next season, and keeps getting better. He’d be a coveted commodity on the level of Josh Beckett, and perhaps even more highly regarded. The bounty could be huge…Miguel Cabrera huge if the Marlins want to go that way.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It seems like every couple of years, the Braves go through contract negotations with John Smoltz. He’s been a Brave for all these years, it just seems inevitable that they’ll work something out. However, a recent quote from Smoltz makes this offseason sound a little different:
All I know is, after these last two years and with my desire to work out, I’ve got two or three more years, easy. I used to always be of the mind-set that if it’s not here, it won’t be anywhere else. But that’s not the case any more. I’ll pitch somewhere else.
Smoltz, 39, is having a Cy Young caliber season. He’s got a 3.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9 in 190 innings. Shortly after the World Series, the Braves need to decide if he’s worth $8MM for 2007.
Smoltz received a four-year deal worth $31MM in November of 1996 following his Cy Young season. He became baseball’s highest-paid pitcher at the time. The results of the contract were 90 starts, one Tommy John surgery, and one season as closer. His next multiyear deal was three years and $30 mil, with a club option as well. He signed his current extension in December of 2004; it included a $6MM signing bonus to bring the average annual value to $9.3MM assuming the option is exercised.
That option, by the way, is a no-brainer. Smoltz is worth $7.4MM next year according to Baseball Prospectus. They project his value at just $11.5MM over the 2008-10 seasons, however. The smart business move may be to just exercise the option and leave it at that. That could result in a midsummer deal. Smoltz’s former team, the Tigers, could have interest if he’s ever available. Smoltz hails from Warren, Michigan and grew up in the Tigers’ system.
One thing that could maybe turn a few teams off: some comments Smoltz made a couple of years ago. I haven’t been able to find out if he’s amended or clarified since. And honestly most teams would probably ignore it the way they ignore DUIs and stuff like that.
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