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Discussion: Worst Move Of The Offseason

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We've already talked about the best move of the offseason this evening, so now let's turn the page and discuss the worst move of the winter. Here are some candidates…

  • Dodgers sign Jamey Carroll to a two-year, $3.85MM contract.
  • Mets sign Alex Cora to a one-year, $2MM contract.
  • Adam LaRoche declines a two-year, $17MM offer from the Giants. 
  • Astros sign Brandon Lyon to a three-year, $15MM contract.
  • Giants re-sign Bengie Molina to a one-year, $4.5MM contract.

There are plenty of more bad moves out there, but which one is the biggest head scratcher? 

Discussion: Best Move Of The Offseason

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With Felipe Lopez finally catching on with the Cardinals, essentially every big name free agent is off the market (no disrespect to Jermaine Dye and Jarrod Washburn). That allows us to sit back and reflect on all of the offseason's moves, and try to figure out which one was the very best.

Here are some candidates…

There's certainly no shortage of candidates, but one has to be the best of the best, right? What do you think it is?

Discussion: Chad Gaudin & Sergio Mitre

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The Yankees head into the 2010 season with the front four spots of their rotation set, but with an open competition for the final spot. Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are the front runners for that spot, but manager Joe Girardi maintains that others like Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, and Alfredo Aceves will be give a chance to win the job.

Both Gaudin and Mitre are out of options, and the Chan Ho Park signing means there's only spot left open in the bullpen for these two. Something will have to give.

Gaudin, 27 in March, will earn $2.95MM in 2010 and will become a free agent after the season. In 31 games (25 starts) for the Padres and Yankees, he posted a 4.64 ERA with an 8.5 K/9 and a 4.3 BB/9. He has experience starting and relieving, and has thrown at least 90 innings in each of the last three seasons.

Mitre, on the other hand, with earn $850K in his age-29 season in 2010, and still has another year of arbitration eligibility ahead of him. After missing the entire 2008 season with Tommy John surgery, Mitre posted a 6.79 ERA in 12 games (nine starts) last year, striking out just 5.6 men per nine innings. He should improve as he gets further away from his surgery.

Since both Gaudin and Mitre are out of options, they would need to clear waivers before they could be sent to the minors. Since the Yankees only have room for one of them on their pitching staff, the other could become trade bait. Can you think of any potential fits of either Gaudin or Mitre? Maybe the Dodgers since they need a fifth starter? 

Discussion: Kiko Calero

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A 1.95 ERA sure doesn't go as far as it once did.  Veteran reliever Kiko Calero posted that career-low mark in 67 appearances for the Marlins last year, as well as an impressive 10.4 K/9 ratio.  With those numbers, a career ERA+ of 132 and a history of dominance against right-handed hitting (RHB have hit just .202/.266/.312 against Calero in his career), you would've thought that the 35-year-old had set himself up for a decent free agent contract this winter.

Instead, teams have opened their spring training camps and Calero (a Type B free agent) is still without a new address.  He has been connected to a few clubs, but hasn't signed for a variety of reasons…

  • Florida, who signed Calero to a minor-league deal for $500K in January 2009, didn't offer salary arbitration to the right-hander and haven't pushed hard to bring him back.  MLB.com's Joe Frisaro tweeted that the chances of Calero returning to the Marlins "are very slim" since the Fish are worried about Calero's injury history.  The reliever tore his right rotator cuff in 2008 and also missed a few weeks of action last season with shoulder problems.
  • These arm problems may have also scared off the Cubs, who were talking to Calero last month.  Chicago only wanted to give Calero a one-year contract, while the reliever was looking for two years.  The Cubs have been looking for bullpen help all winter and might be well served to revisit negotiations with Calero given right-hander Angel Guzman's most recent injury woes.
  • San Francisco made an offer to Calero that CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban guessed was probably a one-year deal plus an option.  But that news broke over a month ago, and the Giants have since announced that they had finished their winter shopping.

So if these teams are out of the running, who's left?  One intriguing destination is St. Louis.  Calero broke into the majors with the Cardinals, posting a 2.80 ERA in 67 appearances with the Redbirds in 2003 and 2004 before being shipped to Oakland in the Mark Mulder trade.  Erik Manning of Fangraphs points out that the Cards' bullpen is the "one potential Achilles heel" on a team that should dominate the NL Central, and finds it "surprising" that there have been no whispers about the Cardinals bringing Calero back. 

If the righty performs as he did in 2009, he would provide a big boost to whatever team takes the plunge and signs him.  For Calero's part, he might have to recognize the reality of the market and accept a one-year deal or a contract similar to the Giants' reported offer rather than hold out for a multi-year commitment.  After all, not every reliever can be as lucky as Brandon Lyon.

Discussion: Adam Dunn

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The free agent market is no longer kind to lumbering, defensively challenged players, as guys like Jermaine Dye and Hank Blalock sit here unemployed during the last week of February. Next year's free agent class naturally features a few players like that, one of whom is Adam Dunn.

The king of the three true outcomes, the 30-year-old Dunn leads all of baseball in walks (673) and strikeouts (1,063) while hitting the second most homers (244) over the last six years. As productive as he was offensively, Dunn gave a lot of it back with his outfield defense (-66.9 UZR since 2007). That's not much of a problem anymore, because he moved to first base full-time following Washington's trade of Nick Johnson.

Dunn is in the second year of the two-year, $20MM deal he signed last February, however GM Mike Rizzo has already made it known that he'd like to lock him up with a contract extension. What kind of extension do you think is fair for Dunn and the team? Perhaps something in the neighborhood of three-years, $39MM?

Discussion: Carlos Pena

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As the 2009-2010 offseason draws to a close, Hot Stove junkies are already looking ahead to next offseason's free agent market. One of the biggest names slated to hit the market is Carl Crawford of Tampa Bay, but he's not the only big name Ray scheduled to become a free agent. Carlos Pena, the team's first baseman since signing a minor league deal back in 2007, will also hit the open market.

The 31-year-old Pena will earn $10.125MM in 2010 as part of the three-year deal he signed back in 2008, making him the highest paid player on the team. Tampa's payroll is slated to drop below the $60MM mark in 2011, which makes it unlikely that Pena will be back in a Rays' uniform next season. The team that loses out on a potential Adrian Gonzalez bidding war could turn to Pena, who provides similar qualities as a patient (.382 OBP over the last three years), power bat (.553 SLG) from the left side with solid defense (+1.3 UZR) at first. 

What do MLBTR's readers think is in store for Pena this season? Will Tampa Bay make him available if they fall out of the race? Or perhaps trade him even if they are in it just to get something in return as opposed to letting him walk as a free agent? What kind of contract could he be looking at after the season?

Discussion: Derek Jeter

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In 2008, Derek Jeter posted the lowest full-season OPS (.771) of his career.  That's not a bad number for a 34-year-old shortstop, but it was enough to make some Yankee fans wonder if their captain was on the decline and what might happen when Jeter's contract expired after the 2010 season.  Would Jeter insist on remaining at shortstop?  Would he want a salary close to the $21MM he's set to make in 2010?  And, if Jeter continued to struggle and the Yankees balked at committing so much money to their star, would New York fans have to cope with seeing their beloved Jeter in another team's uniform in 2011?

These questions still remain to some extent a year later, but in the wake of Jeter's excellent .334/.406/.465 performance in 2009 and the Yankees' 27th World Series title, there is a lot less fear in New York that a Jeter extension will turn into an albatross on the club's payroll. 

As per team policy, contract negotiations with Jeter won't begin until after the season, but it's safe to assume that this delay won't be a distraction for either Jeter or the team.  Tyler Kepner of the New York Times predicts "a quick resolution and a new contract that greatly enriches Jeter while preserving his spotless reputation."  There won't be much, if any, drama in the negotiations since Kepner notes that Jeter recognizes the value of his clean image as a franchise hero, and the Yankees similarly want to keep their "dependable, well-spoken, maintenance-free front man."

Kepner thinks the 10-year, $275MM contract that Alex Rodriguez signed with New York after the 2007 season may serve as a benchmark for Jeter's next deal.  Given how much the economics of both baseball and the world have changed just in two years' time, it would be surprising to see even the Yankees commit that much cash to a player who will be 36 in June, no matter how big of a franchise icon he may be.  Also, as Kepner notes, Jeter has managed to avoid the scrutiny that comes with big-money contract negotiations ever since signing his current deal back in 2001.  It's unlikely that Jeter would want to change that as he enters the twilight years of his career and the chances increase that he'll have more seasons like his 2008 campaign. 

Something in the neighborhood of a six-year contract that pays Jeter around $22MM per year (a nod to his uniform number) might be a total more to the liking of both parties.  Jeter gets a slight raise from his previous contract, is locked up until he's 42 years old, and is amply rewarded for his contributions to the team while still leaving the Yankees with a bit of flexibility to sign other players (like, for example, fellow Yankee legend Mariano Rivera, whose deal is also up after 2010).

There could also be a mutual option year or two tacked onto the end of the deal in case the 42-year-old Jeter still wants to play and/or he has a chance of breaking Pete Rose's hit record.  Kepner raised the possibility that Jeter may ask for incentive clauses for passing various hit plateaus, similar to how A-Rod's contract provides him with a $6MM bonus whenever (or if-ever) he passes the career home run totals of Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and then tying and breaking Barry Bonds' all-time record.  Jeter is just 253 hits away from 3,000, but, as Rose himself said to Sports Illustrated's Joe Posnanski, “You tell Derek that the first 3,000 are easy.”

Since we can assume that 99 percent of Yankee fans want to see Jeter retire in the Bronx, what do you think would be an ideal contract to keep the captain in the fold until the end of his career?

 

Discussion: Josh Beckett

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When the Red Sox signed John Lackey earlier this offseason, many wondered if Josh Beckett's time in Boston was coming to an end. Beckett's $12.1MM option for 2010 vested in early September, though with Lackey joining incumbents Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield, the Sox could probably afford to let Beckett walk after the season instead of giving him a huge payday.

Beckett will turn 30 in May, and during his four years in Boston he's posted a 4.05 ERA in 122 starts, twice appearing in an All Star Game and once winning the World Series. His 4.38 K/BB ratio over the last three seasons trails only Mariano Rivera, Kevin Slowey, Dan Haren, and Roy Halladay, while his 3.28 xFIP lags behind only Tim Lincecum among starters in that time. The performance is not an issue, but as WEEI.com's Rob Bradford writes, the health of Beckett's shoulder might be.

We've already heard that Boston would probably use Halladay's three-year, $60MM deal (minus $6-8MM) as a guideline for a Beckett extension instead of Lackey's five-year, $82.5MM deal. However if he has a strong 2010 season, it shouldn't be too hard for Beckett to find more than that on the free agent market, even in this economic climate. 

What do you think the Sox should do with Beckett after the season? Offer him the long-term deal he probably deserves, or hold the line like they did with Jason Bay and take him back on their terms only? Aces in their prime don't exactly flood the market, after all.

Discussion: Hank Blalock

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Older players are feeling the crunch these days, especially if they're one dimensional. Teams just aren't willing to pay big bucks for declining players, regardless of how notable they are or how good of a fit they may be. However some younger players are feeling it too; if they want a big league contract they better be able to do several things well.

Two-time All Star Hank Blalock sits here on February 8th without a job, despite hitting 25 homers last season and averaging 27 bombs per 162 games played for his career. The problem is that Blalock doesn't get on base well (.277 OBP in 2009, .329 career), isn't very good in the field at either first or third, and has dealt with major shoulder injuries in recent seasons. His value comes from his ability to occasionally make pitchers pay when they make a mistake.

At this point, Blalock's probably looking at a minor league deal, however his significant platoon split might be enough to land him a gig as a the lefty-half of a first base platoon somewhere. All it takes is an injury in Spring Training, after all.

Do you see any possible fits for Blalock, maybe as a platoon player or a bat off the bench for an NL team? The pickin's are slim this far into the offseason…

Discussion: Mike Sweeney

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Late last night, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com mentioned (via Twitter) that Mike Sweeney still wants to play this year. The former Royal and Athletic hit a modest .281/.335/.442 in 266 plate appearances for the Mariners last season, though he's had to settle for minor league contracts with invitations to Spring Training in each of the last two offseasons.

Knee and back problems have essentially relegated Sweeney to full-time DH status (just 164.1 innings at first over the last three years), and as we all know, there's always more DH's available than DH spots. However, when comparable righty hitters like Jermaine Dye (.250/.340/.453 in 2009) are turning down $3MM+, Sweeney might actually have a leg up in the market because he'd presumably be willing to come (very) cheap.

There's no better way to start the morning off than with a nice friendly chat, so let's see where everyone thinks Sweeney might land. Just to toss some teams out there, do to Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers or White Sox seem like fits? What about a pinch-hitter for an NL club?

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