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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Garland

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Padres righty Jon Garland is currently tied for fifth in MLB with a 2.15 ERA through his first eleven starts.  Let's take a closer look Garland's work and see if he's improved his stock in the upcoming free agent market.

Garland's rate of 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings is hardly inspiring, yet it'd mark a career high.  His 4.0 walks per nine rate would be his worst since 2001.  So what exactly is he doing well?

Garland is getting lots of groundballs; his 53.3% rate is a career best.  On a related note, he's allowed just five home runs in 67 innings.  Despite his low strikeout rate, Garland is preventing hits so far.  His 7.5 hits per nine, .258 batting average on balls in play, and 80% left on base rates are not sustainable.  Garland has particularly taken advantage of PETCO Park by preventing hits, stranding tons of baserunners, and getting extra grounders.  Garland figures to allow hits at a higher rate from here on out, though he could balance that by cutting walks.

Assuming the walk rate comes down, Garland has made positive strides that may carry over to future seasons.  More strikeouts and grounders always help.  He's improved his stock at least slightly, and will get a $300K buyout if he declines his end of a $6.75MM mutual option for 2011.  Represented by LSW Baseball, Garland could seek the two-year, $15MM deal Jason Marquis received.  LSW's 2011 free agent group includes several other resurgent players, such as Paul Konerko, Brett Myers, and J.J. Putz.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Derek Jeter

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Last September, SI's Jon Heyman guessed the Yankees would eventually re-sign Derek Jeter for at least $60MM over three years.  Bob Klapisch of FOX Sports suggested in November that the Yankees give him a four-year, $100MM extension beginning with the '10 season.  As recently as March, Heyman talked to two rival executives who believed Jeter would seek six years.

We haven't seen those kinds of contract estimates lately.  Noting Jeter's reduced range to his left, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote on May 6th that the length of Jeter's next contract "is one of the toughest issues in the history of the organization."  More recently, Sherman wondered if the prices for Jeter and Mariano Rivera will come down as they fail to match their 2009 seasons.

Jeter is currently hitting .276/.320/.396 in 206 plate appearances this season.  His walks are down and he's swinging at more pitches outside the zone than ever.  It'd easily be the worst offensive season of his career, though he still has plenty of time to right the ship.  He had two similar offensive months to start the '08 season, but regained his form in June.

Consider this hypothetical situation.  Say the Astros had drafted Jeter first overall in 1992 instead of Phil Nevin.  Jeter has the same legendary career in Houston, but still reaches free agency after the 2010 season.  With Jeter's game potentially slipping, the Astros decide to part ways and don't offer arbitration.  The Yankees need a shortstop.  What's their contract offer?  I'm thinking three years, $30MM at most.  Even three years might be a reach for a 36-year-old player.

Back to reality: Jeter is the face of the Yankees, and an extension seems a near-certainty.  Based on Heyman's September guess, Jeter's premium could be in the range of $10MM annually, plus an extra year or two.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Millwood

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I wasn't a huge fan of the Orioles' acquisition of Kevin Millwood, as I felt $9MM was still pretty hefty for a starter of his caliber and he wasn't likely to return a useful prospect at the trade deadline.  One team executive agreed, citing the Rangers' moving most of Millwood's salary as one of the best deals of the offseason.

With about 28% of the season in the books, Millwood is vindicating Andy MacPhail's acquisition.  The 35-year-old righty leads the American League in innings, averaging 6.8 per start.  He's allowed a fair share of hits and home runs, but has managed a 3.71 ERA due to the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career.

Will the Orioles trade Millwood?  It'd be a logical move, but the Orioles' rotation is already ranked 12th in the American League in ERA.  Without Millwood the team's rotation ERA would be over 5.00 and the bullpen would be even more taxed.  An arbitration offer after the season could net the Orioles a draft pick, as Millwood is currently a Type B free agent.  Of course, the O's would need to offer arbitration and have the Scott Boras-represented pitcher decline.

Millwood has Boras, but he still may have to accept a one-year deal in the $5-7MM range in free agency.  That'd fit with the deals signed by Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Carl Pavano, and Brad Penny last winter.  At least Millwood doesn't have to worry about a conflict of interest, as Boras doesn't have much else in the way of starting pitching next winter.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jeremy Bonderman

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In December of 2006, Jeremy Bonderman was 24 years old, coming off the finest season of his career.  He debuted at age 20 in '03, but put it all together in '06 by making 34 regular season starts and striking out 202.  He added three postseason starts to his resume that year.  Bonderman's extension bought out his final two arbitration years for $13MM, and a pair of free agent seasons at $12.5MM apiece.

Unfortunately, injuries set in for Bonderman after he signed the contract.  He dealt with a blister and elbow pain in '07, and learned of thoracic outlet syndrome in '08.  Shoulder soreness lingered into the '09 season, limiting him to 51.3 pro innings.

Bonderman came to Spring Training pain-free in 2010, and reclaimed a rotation spot when the Tigers traded Nate Robertson.  With a 4.43 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 40.6 innings, it appears on the surface that Bonderman has regained his '06 form.  There are notable differences though.  Bonderman is throwing 89.4 mph on average this year, as compared to 93.3 in '06.  He's throwing more fastballs and fewer sliders, and he's no longer a groundball pitcher.  Manager Jim Leyland explained to MLB.com's Stephen Ellsesser: "He's not the overpowering guy he was. He's adjusting to the pitching style, throwing a split now."  It should also be noted that Bonderman's stat line would look a lot worse had a rainout not wiped out a lousy start a few weeks ago. 

The 2010 version of Bonderman is still getting it done, but potential free agent bidders will have the luxury of adding his next 20+ starts to the sample.  Bonderman's age, 28, will be a number other free agents can't beat.  He may be looking at a contract similar to Rich Harden's one-year, $7.5MM deal assuming teams remain intrigued by his upside but wary of his health.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Troy Glaus

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Troy Glaus was traded to the Cardinals in January of 2008, waiving his no-trade clause and exercising his '09 player option for more than $12MM.  He recovered from surgery to repair a nerve in his foot and posted a fine '08, hitting 27 home runs and playing over 1,200 innings at third base.  A year after the trade Glaus had arthroscopic right shoulder surgery, which ultimately limited him to 135 pro plate appearances in 2009.  Glaus previously had a procedure on that shoulder in May of '04.

The lost '09 season drove Glaus' price down in free agency, as he signed for a base salary of $1.75MM.   He'll get a $250K bonus with 100 days on the active roster and can earn another $2MM based on plate appearances.  Glaus is currently on pace to exceed 600 plate appearances and max out his incentives, which would bring him to $4MM earned in 2010.

After a slow April, Glaus has a scorching .400/.460/.600 line in May.  He seems headed toward 25 home runs and 100 RBIs.  He's also settled in as a regular first baseman.  Though the Braves' offense has shown a surprising lack of power, GM Frank Wren deserves praise for this low-risk signing.  Glaus will turn 34 in August, so he won't be in line for a multiyear deal after the season.  He's nowhere near Type B status, so free agent compensation won't be involved either.  He still may be able to pull off a contract similar to that of Adam LaRoche and Hideki Matsui – around $6MM guaranteed.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jose Contreras

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After an ugly outing against the Yankees on August 29th of last year, Jose Contreras' record stood at 5-13.  He had a 5.42 ERA on the season and was well overpaid at $10MM.  At the August 31st deadline, the White Sox shipped Contreras to Colorado for minor league pitcher Brandon Hynick plus cash in a salary dump move.  The 38-year-old Cuban pitched well in his Rockies debut but suffered a quad injury in his second start.  Contreras returned from the injury as a reliever and did a good job in five appearances.  

The Phillies signed Contreras in January to a $1.5MM deal.  He's been lights-out this season, and has already ascended to second in line to close if Brad Lidge struggles or isn't available.  Contreras' dominance is no fluke – as a reliever this year his average fastball has jumped up to 94.7 mph and he sports an 11.6 K/9 with a career-best 54.2% groundball rate.  The relief sample is growing – since his Rockies role change Contreras has a 0.95 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 in 19 innings.

Contreras appears to have found a second baseball life as a reliever.  Admittedly, the 2010 season has just begun.  But if Contreras' excellence continues until free agency, he'll be positioned for a two-year deal or even a closing job.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jorge De La Rosa

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29-year-old Rockies lefty Jorge de la Rosa is one of the more interesting names among the 2011 free agent starting pitcher class.  He had a breakout season in '09, winning 16 of 32 starts and whiffing 193 batters.  De La Rosa and the Rockies agreed on a $5.6MM base salary for 2010, as the pitcher wasn't impressed by the team's three-year, $11MM offer.  According to Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd, the sides were "light years apart" on an extension.

The Rockies wanted to know if De La Rosa can repeat or improve upon his 2009 season.  In his first four starts of 2010, he bumped his strikeout rate up to 10.2 per nine and his groundball rate up to 61.4%.  Carried out over a full season, those numbers would make GMs salivate.  On the other hand, De La Rosa's walk rate rose to the danger zone of 5.1 per nine.  Though he never racked up a similar groundball rate, teams might draw an Oliver Perez comparison and keep their distance.

Perez's three-year, $36MM contract did seem to be a reasonable baseline for De La Rosa.  Teams aren't giving out pitching contracts so freely anymore, though, so just to approach $30MM like Randy Wolf might've sufficed.

However, De La Rosa's price will be further depressed because of an injury he suffered on Monday.  It was initially described as a bruised finger, but now he's going to be out "for a while" with a torn flexor tendon band.  Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll believes De La Rosa could miss at least a month with the finger injury, and even draws a scary Adam Miller comparison (while noting that Miller's "damage was much more extensive.")  Suddenly the free agent hot commodity carries an injury concern, and the pressure is on De La Rosa to come back strong in June.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Dempster

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One player whose stock has risen in ’08 is Cubs starter Ryan Dempster.  The 31 year-old hadn’t started regularly since ’03, but he currently sports a 5-1 record with a 2.35 ERA.  He’s earning $5.5MM in the last year of a three-year extension.

Part of Dempster’s success can be attributed to his .211 BABIP, lowest in the league.  As a team the Cubs have a .277 BABIP, and something around there would be a more reasonable expectation moving forward.  On the plus side, Dempster’s 55% groundball rate ranks seventh in the NL, and it’s helped him keep the ball in the yard.  He has a solid strikeout rate and has been making improvements on a subpar walk rate.

The Cubs have treated Dempster well, taking him on as a reclamation project and later giving him an extension at full market value.  Perhaps he’ll choose to continue the relationship.  A three-year deal in the $30-35MM range seems fair.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Joe Crede

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White Sox third baseman Joe Crede hopes to stay in Chicago beyond 2008.  He’s willing to have his agent, Scott Boras, negotiate in-season with the Sox – but only if the team approaches him.  Crede will still listen to the Sox after the season, but he’ll be on the open market after the exclusive negotiation period expires.

Will the Sox offer Crede arbitration?  The possibility that he accepts and they have him for ’09 seems a risk worth taking.  Crede would probably be a Type B free agent, and he’d likely decline arbitration in hopes of a multiyear deal.

It’s a weak free agent market for third basemen.  The closest guy to a regular besides Crede is Casey Blake, and he’s having a lousy year.  Boras should ask for more than three years and $25MM, since that’s what Melvin Mora is earning.  Mike Lowell’s three years and $37.5MM seems too much.  The Indians, Twins, Angels, Brewers, Dodgers, and Giants could be suitors. 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Milton Bradley

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In December, Milton Bradley signed a one-year deal with the Rangers for $5.25MM guaranteed.  He can earn up to $2.75MM more based on playing time incentives.  The Padres didn’t offer him arbitration; they were afraid of a possible award nearing $10MM. 

Bradley was available at an affordable price and term mainly because of his injury history – he hasn’t played 100 games in a season since 2004.  His ’07 season ended with an ACL tear in a bizarre incident (his manager tackled him to keep him away from an umpire who had provoked him).  That Bradley was ready for Opening Day was remarkable.

Since Bradley was traded to the Padres on June 29th of last year, he’s been an elite hitter: a .981 OPS in 263 at-bats.  In that period his OBP ranks 7th in the game (.419) and his SLG ranks 15th (.563).  Bradley could be called the Rich Harden of hitters – oft-injured, but elite when he plays.  Bradley might be a hot trade commodity this July.  He won’t come cheap, since he has a decent chance of Type A status.

The smart move for Bradley in ’09 will be to choose a team with an open DH spot.  If he can remain relatively healthy and incident-free for the rest of ’08, he could ask for a $12MM salary.  He could even get multiple guaranteed years (after all, Frank Thomas did).  The Yankees, Rays, Jays, Royals, and Mariners could be possibilities if the Rangers don’t re-sign him.  Of course, we can’t rule out the NL – Bradley nearly re-signed with the Padres.

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