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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hiroki Kuroda

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This upcoming free agent pitching class is obviously highlighted by Cliff Lee, but it lost a little luster when Josh Beckett and Tim Hudson signed contract extensions. There's still another high-end pitcher available for teams looking to improve the front of their rotation, however. Dodgers' righthander Hiroki Kuroda is in the final season of the three-year, $35.3MM contract he signed with the team before the 2008 season, and will be able to pawn his services off to the highest bidder this winter.

Kuroda, 35, is wrapping up his finest season in the Major Leagues even if his 10-13 record suggests otherwise. In 182 innings spread across 29 starts, he's posted a 3.36 ERA with 2.3 BB/9 and a career best 7.4 K/9. Through 482.2 big league innings, he owns a rock solid 3.60 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, which is the kind of performance any team would love to add to their rotation. 

The one real negative is Kuroda's health track record. He missed close to three weeks with shoulder tendinitis in 2008 then almost two months with an oblique strain last season. A concussion suffered when he was struck by a batted ball took away another three weeks of his 2009 season, but that's a fluke occurrence and we shouldn't count it against his durability. The good news is that Kuroda has skated through the 2010 season healthy and without any significant medical issues. 

Even though he has just three years of service time after spending most of his career in Japan, Kuroda can become a free agent through a courtesy that MLB extends to Japanese veterans. He currently projects as a Type-B free agent, though it's far from a given that the Dodgers will offer him arbitration given their uncertain financial state and his $13MM salary this year. While he might not command that kind of annual salary on the open market, there's really no reason Kuroda should have to settle for less than the three-year, $29.75MM deal that former Dodger Randy Wolf signed last winter.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes

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With 18 games remaining in the season, Brian Fuentes' 2011 vesting option is officially out of reach. The 35-year-old's contract included a $9MM option for next season that would vest if he finished 55 games, but an April back strain knocked him off pace early. Having finished only 35 games this year, the left-hander is heading toward free agency.

When Fuentes signed his last contract, he was coming off a career year. In 2008, he saved 30 games and recorded a 2.73 ERA to go along with 11.8 K/9, turning that performance into a two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Angels. Despite saving 72 games over the course of the contract, Fuentes likely won't be fielding the same sort of offers this winter. His ERA (3.67), BB/9 (4.0), and K/9 (8.3) over the last two years have all fallen off slightly since his final seasons in Colorado, and at 35, he's not getting any younger. Teams didn't hand out many multi-year guarantees to last year's crop of free agent relievers, and Fuentes is part of a free agent class that includes other left-handed options like Scott Downs, Pedro Feliciano, Hisanori Takahashi, and Will Ohman.

Fuentes has been used as a closer for the majority of the last few years, and he'll aim to be paid like one. However, with only a handful of teams expected to be in the market for a closer, and many feasible options available, clubs might view Fuentes as a setup man instead. Being able to call on the southpaw in any middle or late inning rather than waiting for the ninth would allow a team to better take advantage of his primary strength: retiring lefties. While Fuentes has always handled left-handed hitters better than righties, his splits are particularly disparate this year – right-handers have a .757 OPS against him, compared to just .350 for left-handers.

A multi-year contract and a chance to close figure to be at or near the top of Fuentes' wish list this winter, and it's possible that a team willing to overpay for saves will provide him both. If not, the lefty could end up inking a short-term deal, perhaps with an option year, to be the primary left-handed setup man for a contender.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Vicente Padilla

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Vicente Padilla wrapped 2009 up in style, turning in two strong postseason starts after a big finish to the regular season in L.A. The result: a one-year $5.025MM deal. Padilla's about to hit free agency again, but he's out for the season, so he won't head into the offseason with the same momentum he did a year ago. Here's the outlook for the Dodgers righty:

The Pros

  • Padilla posted 8.0 K/9 with 2.3 BB/9 and a 4.07 ERA.
  • His average fastball velocity (92.4 mph) hasn't been this high since 2005.
  • He doesn't turn 33 until later this month, so he's still relatively young even though he has 12 years of big league experience.
  • The neck injury that has sidelined Padilla probably won't require surgery.
  • He is projected to be a Type B free agent, so he won't cost a draft pick.
  • Padilla's tenure in Texas ended badly a year ago, but he has since earned Joe Torre's trust, which reflects well.

The Cons

  • He'll miss the rest of the season with a bulging disk in his neck.
  • A forearm injury sidelined Padilla earlier in the season, so he made just 16 total starts in 2010.
  • Padilla didn't replicate the strong finish he had a year ago and posted a 10.13 ERA in his final three starts.

The Verdict

The Dodgers don't seem likely to offer arbitration, since they didn't make such offers to Padilla or any other free agents a year ago. Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda are hitting free agency, too, so the Dodgers will be looking for starting pitching this winter. Some teams may shy away from Padilla because he missed so much time with injuries, but his strong performance should be enough to earn him $3-4MM on a one-year deal this offseason, whether it's with the Dodgers or not.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Pena

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Although he has remained the starting first baseman for the second-best team in baseball, Carlos Pena hasn't enjoyed one of his more productive seasons. Flirting with the Mendoza Line for much of the year, Pena has hit .203/.331/.425 after posting a slash line of .252/.382/.553 over his first three seasons with the Rays. The decline in production couldn't come at a worse time for the 32-year-old; not only is he being relied upon by a World Series contender, but he also faces free agency this winter.

The season hasn't been a total disaster for Pena. Although UZR doesn't necessarily back it up, he's still regarded as a strong defensive first baseman. At the plate, his walk and home run rates have stayed in line with his career ratios, and a career-low .223 BABIP suggests that he's been a little unlucky. However, he's also hitting fewer line drives (14.7%) and more ground balls (45.3%) than he ever has in his time with Tampa. Given his uninspiring numbers and the fact that he's part of an overcrowded group of free agent first basemen, Pena won't have nearly the leverage this winter that he and agent Scott Boras would like.

Of course, Pena also isn't the only free-agent-to-be at first base who has seen his production slip this season. Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee have struggled as well, while Troy Glaus, Jorge Cantu, and Lyle Overbay have all suffered through horrid slumps that put a dent in their overall numbers. Players like Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche have positioned themselves well heading into free agency, but the falling stocks of Berkman and Lee should work in Pena's favor.

Pena's situation heading into the offseason is somewhat reminiscent of Adrian Beltre's a year ago. Another Boras client, Beltre was coming off a disappointing, injury-marred 2009 campaign that saw him post a .683 OPS in 477 plate appearances. Because of his defensive prowess and his past offensive production, Beltre was still presented with multi-year offers before eventually accepting a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox. Beltre plays a more premium infield position and was part of a thinner third base market, so Pena may not receive the same kind of offers, but Boras could explore a similarly incentive-laden one-year contract. If the first baseman rebounds, like Beltre has, he may earn himself a bigger payday down the road.

Currently, Pena projects as a Type B free agent, which means signing him won't cost a draft pick. Even if he were a Type A, the Rays would be unlikely to offer arbitration; Pena is making $10.125MM this year and the team plans to reduce payroll in 2011, so they wouldn't want the first baseman to accept an arbitration offer. With no compensation picks attached to him on the open market, Pena could get a multi-year deal from a club like the Nationals, who reportedly "love" him. It wouldn't be a surprise, however, to see the Boras client sign a one-year contract with an eye on improving his stock for 2012.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Bronson Arroyo

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If the Reds don't pick up Bronson Arroyo's option for 2011, he'll be in high demand. Only three pitchers have logged more innings than Arroyo over the course of the past five seasons and the 33-year-old has posted a 3.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over that span. Arroyo's 2010 season has been strong, as usual. He has a 3.84 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 for the NL Central leaders this year.

Arroyo hasn't started fewer than 28 games in a season since joining Boston's rotation in 2004. That kind of consistency has value on the open market, even if Arroyo doesn't have overpowering stuff. The Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Indians, Rockies, Brewers, Nationals and Diamondbacks are some of the teams that could have interest in adding an innings eater this winter. There are other options of course – Kevin Millwood, Ted Lilly, Javier Vazquez and Dave Bush will be available – but Arroyo would have no trouble finding a job if the Reds decline his option.

It would cost Cincinnati $2MM to decline Arroyo's option and either $11MM or $13MM to pick it up (the cost depends on how many innings the right-hander pitches). The Reds have many pitchers to consider for their 2011 rotation, but none of them are as predictable as Arroyo. It would not be surprising at all to see the Reds pick up Arroyo's option.

If GM Walt Jocketty decides to turn down the option, the Reds will have to decide whether to offer arbitration to Arroyo, who currently projects as a Type A free agent. They could obtain compensatory picks if Arroyo declined an offer of arbitration to sign elsewhere, but he could always accept their offer.

Jason Marquis, another durable early thirties right-hander, signed a two-year deal worth $15MM last offseason despite similarly low strikeout rates. If Arroyo hits the open market this winter, it would not be surprising to see him sign a two-year deal worth $20MM or so.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Pat Burrell

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Pat Burrell's stock reached a low on May 15th, when the Rays designated him for assignment.  The move showed that the team was willing to eat nearly $7MM to get Burrell off the roster.  He'd hit just .218/.311/.361 in 137 games as the team's designated hitter.

On May 29th, Burrell signed a minor league deal with the Giants.  After five games at Triple A, Burrell joined the big league club.  Since then he has a .272/.366/.510 line in 243 plate appearances – pretty much what the Rays expected when they signed him to a two-year, $16MM deal in January of 2009.  He has, however, faced lefties a disproportionate amount of the time.

Burrell may be reluctant to return to the American League and a designated hitter role in 2011.  That'll limit his market to National League clubs seeking a left fielder, as Burrell hasn't played first base in ten years.  And Burrell's reputation in left isn't stellar.  With about $70MM earned in his career, the slugger may focus more on playing time rather than guaranteed money for his next contract.  He might be available for less than $2MM guaranteed, plus plate appearance incentives.  Returning to the Giants will have to be at the top of his list, if they're interested.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Koji Uehara

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As his two-year contract with the Orioles nears its conclusion, righty Koji Uehara is restoring some value.  He sports a 1.91 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 in 28.3 relief innings and has quietly slipped into the team's closer role.

Uehara, 35, pitched well as a starter in 2009, but his season ended in June due to hamstring and elbow woes.  He began this year with more of the same, but has been healthy for the last two months as a late-inning reliever.

Uehara was signed as the Orioles' first-ever Japanese player in January of 2009.  HIs two-year, $10MM contract included $6MM worth of incentives for innings pitched and games finished that he was not able to reach.  His path with the Orioles was not surprising; in June of 2008 NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman outlined Uehara's injury history and success coming out of the bullpen in '07.  The contract indicates the Orioles were aware of the possibility that Uehara would switch to relief at some point.

Teams are more cautious in free agency now than they were two years ago.  Plus, Uehara is no longer a mysterious figure.  He's an injury-prone right-handed reliever who will be coming off a strong half-season at age 36 – not unlike Brendan Donnelly after the '09 season.  Uehara's agent Mark Pieper would do well to get his client a $2MM guarantee this time around.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Octavio Dotel

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On April 26th, Pirates GM Neal Huntington told MLBTR he felt that Octavio Dotel could provide a similar performance for similar dollars and contractual control as Matt Capps.  That was the reasoning behind non-tendering Capps and signing Dotel to a one-year, $3.5MM deal with a club option for 2011.

On May 1st, Huntington's statement appeared silly.  Dotel had a 10.61 ERA and three saves, while Capps boasted a 0.68 ERA and ten saves.  However, the relievers' fortunes have reversed, as Dotel has a 1.93 ERA since May 1st and Capps is at 6.43.  It's too early to make a final judgment on Huntington's decision, but Dotel is the same pitcher he's been for years.  He'll rack up tons of strikeouts, too many walks, and too many home runs.

Dotel's club option is for $4.5MM with a $500K buyout.  A $4MM net price isn't a bargain for another year of his services, but it's something the Pirates or perhaps another team will have to consider.  But here's the catch, and it makes Dotel's contractual control different from that of Capps.  Dotel's club option becomes a mutual option if traded.  If Dotel continues pitching well, he could be dealt and decline his side of the option.  He might do so in pursuit of a contract similar to the one he had with the White Sox – two years and $11MM.  Another possibility: Dotel could be traded to a team that has the closer spot locked up, and then decline the option in pursuit of save chances in 2011.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Adrian Beltre

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Adrian Beltre signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox in January, turning down three-year, $24MM offers from the Phillies and Athletics.  The Scott Boras client gambled that he'd bounce back in 2010 and exceed a two-year, $14MM deal after the season.  So far, it appears that Beltre was smart to bet on his own talent.

Beltre was expected to provide strong defense and a useful bat, perhaps a .330 OBP with 25 home runs.  Instead he's got a .330/.362/.509 line in 232 plate appearances.  He's tied for ninth in the AL with 40 RBIs; reaching 100 for the second time in his career won't hurt his earning potential.

Beltre's contract includes a 2011 player option worth $5MM, which will increase to $10MM with 640 plate appearances this year.  He's currently on pace for 637, so it'll be tight.  The $10MM option was never terribly relevant, though – if Beltre played enough to reach 640 PAs, he'd probably have a season worthy of more than a one-year, $10MM commitment.  Beltre is highly likely to decline his player option whether it's $5MM or $10MM.

I would not be surprised to see Beltre seek a four-year deal in the $50MM range at the outset of the offseason.  He'll be competing mainly with Jorge Cantu, if Aramis Ramirez's rough start compels him to exercise a $14.6MM player option.  Back in March, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein noted the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves a good fit.  At the least we'll see an arbitration offer, as the third baseman currently profiles as a Type B free agent.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Shortstops

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Operating under the safe assumption Derek Jeter re-signs with the Yankees, who's the best available free agent shortstop after the season?  As usual, it's an unimpressive group.  2011 age is in parentheses.

  • Orlando Cabrera (36) - He's got a $4MM mutual option with a buyout of $500K or $1MM depending on who declines.  Whether you're looking for offense or defense, Cabrera's numbers don't impress.
  • Adam Everett (34) – Everett still has defensive skills, but his bat deteriorated to the point that the Tigers recently designated him for assignment.
  • Alex Gonzalez (33) – He hit for good power in the season's first month, and might be doing enough to get his $2.5MM option picked up by the Blue Jays after the season.
  • Cesar Izturis (31) – He's a defense-first type, at least in reputation, and a big negative with the bat.
  • Edgar Renteria (35) – He's currently on the DL with a hamstring injury, but at least holds a .372 OBP for now.  The Giants are unlikely to exercise his $10.5MM option, making him a tolerable choice in a poor class.
  • Jose Reyes (28) – He's been lousy this season, but at least appears healthy.  The Mets would be hard-pressed to decline his $11MM option.
  • Juan Uribe (31) – Not the ideal defensive shortstop anymore, but he's hit well since returning to the NL last year.  Uribe might be the best stopgap shortstop available on the free agent market.
  • Felipe Lopez (31) – Like Uribe, he's a solid, versatile bat who can pass as a shortstop if needed.
  • Cristian Guzman, Nick Punto, and Miguel Tejada aren't playing shortstop this year, but could potentially be moved back for 2011 if a team is so inclined.
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