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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Varitek

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Oh no! It’s a Yankees blogger talking about the Red Sox! He’s gonna be all biased and junk! While I’m sure I’ll get some of that in the comments, I think talking about Jason Varitek’s impending free agency is a worthy topic for this slow Saturday. So, what are we looking at for the 36-year-old backstop?

You know where I’m going with this. After the 2007 season, a 36-year-old Jorge Posada signed a four-year, $52.4MM contract. This was on the heels of Posada’s best season, .338/.426/.543. Can we expect something similar for Varitek, who will turn 37 at the beginning of the 2009 season?

The short answer: no. I understand that Varitek means a lot to the Red Sox as a team. But does that really justify giving him a four-year deal? In my opinion, no. Then again, Varitek is the same season-age as Jorge, so maybe he’ll be looking for a three-year deal. But even then, do the Red Sox want to match Jorge’s yearly salary of $13.1MM?

Red Sox fans might kill me, but once again I have to say no. If I showed you Player 1 and Player 2, without identifying them, and asked you to tell me who has had the better career, you’d pick Player 1 without question. I’d even factor in that Player 2 plays demonstrably better defense. It’s still a landslide.

Varitek is off to a quiet start this year, hitting .256/.301/.449. I expect he’ll bring those numbers up, as he had a similarly slow start last year, yet finished at .255/.367/.421. But you have to wonder how much longer he’s going to hold up. Tek was great from 2003 through 2005, but hasn’t been able to reach the same levels over the past two years. And while he’ll rebound this year, it’s doubtful his OPS+ will be much more than 100.

So what would you pay for a league average hitting catcher for his age 37 through, say, 39 seasons? I figure the Red Sox will end up matching his previous deal, only three years this time around. So three years, $30MM. But it’s not like the Red Sox don’t have the resources to add a fourth year.

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Furcal

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Indicators predicting a big year for Rafael Furcal included his impending free agency, a return to health, and a strong Spring Training performance.  After 28 games, he sits at .371/.459/.586 (tops among shortstops).

When Furcal first reached free agency after the 2005 season, he was only 28 and was coming off a .284/.348/.429 season.  He chose to maximize his yearly salary rather than take a four or five-year deal.  The three-year, $39MM contract Furcal signed with the Dodgers allows him to re-enter free agency at age 31.

Furcal is in line for a monster contract even if he can’t maintain his MVP performance.  Jimmy Rollins is signed at a well below-market price, so he’s a poor comparable.  The high-end comp is Derek Jeter, who gave up nine free agent years for a bit less than $20MM per season.  Furcal’s agent, Paul Kinzer, could reasonably ask for $75MM over five years.

Furcal and the Dodgers are open to a midseason extension, according to Ken Rosenthal.  That’d make Chin-Lung Hu a valuable trade chip.  Back in ’05, the Cubs and Braves competed with the Dodgers for Furcal.  The White Sox, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Cardinals could enter the mix next winter if Furcal reaches free agency.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Ellis

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A’s second baseman Mark Ellis might be the affordable alternative to Orlando Hudson next winter.  In September of last year, the A’s chose to exercise Ellis’ $5MM option for ’08.

Ellis, 30, was ranked as the fourth-best defensive second baseman by the Fielding Bible’s panel of experts, behind Aaron Hill, Hudson, and Brandon Phillips.  The market might undervalue second base defense – Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system values Ellis at about $30MM over the 2009-11 seasons.  He seems unlikely to become a $10MM a year player.

Ellis also has offensive value.  He’s good for a .330 OBP and .400 SLG, which is at least league average for the position.  And he is capable of more power, having hit 19 home runs last year.

Ellis seems likely to snag a contract of three years at $6-7MM per season. Sure beats Hudson’s asking price.  Ellis just missed Type A classification last winter; I think he’ll reach it this time (here’s a refresher on the stats used for the Elias rankings).  Because of the likely Type A draft pick compensation, I can see him playing out the string in ’08 with the A’s.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Garland

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One thing Jon Garland has going for him is his age.  He’ll spend the 2009 season as a 29 year-old.  Only a few other free agent starters will be under 30 that year: Oliver Perez (27), Mark Prior (27), and C.C. Sabathia (28).  A team that can’t afford Sabathia but misses out on Perez might turn to Garland.

Garland is an innings eater, having topped 210 in each of the last three seasons.  His low strikeout rate leads to plenty of hits, but he balances that with good control.  His groundball rate had been on the decline from 2005-07, but he’s at an elite 55% this year.  On the other hand, he’s whiffed just four in 30.3 innings (easily the worst K/9 in baseball). 

If the oddities balance out and he has a typical Garland season, Carlos Silva’s four-year, $48MM deal might be the comparable.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam Dunn

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Adam Dunn will be a free agent after this season. So it’s a safe bet that Dunn is going to have a career year and will cash in this winter, right? Not so fast.

Dunn, who has hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the past three seasons, has only two so far. But that’s not what makes Dunn’s 2008 start so interesting.

This season, Dunn’s OBP is a robust .418, but his batting average is an anemic .191. How do we account for this dichotomy? Quite simply, Dunn has walked more than usual. So far, he’s walked 19 times in 47 at bats. He’s on pace to walk 211 times, assuming he gets as many at bats as last season (522).

Amazingly, that wouldn’t break the record for most walks in a season, which was set by Barry Bonds in 2004. But it would still be a remarkable feat, especially considering 120 of Bonds’ walks were intentional, and Dunn has yet to be intentionally walked this month.

Of course, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. This is a very small sample size we’re talking about. More than likely, Dunn’s walk rate will taper off.

But what if Dunn keeps walking at this rate? Here’s how The Hardball Times describes Bill James’ theory that an increased walk rate signals decreased hitting, via Fox Sports:

In his 1986 Baseball Abstract, Bill James postulated that when a player experienced a sudden spike in walk rate one year, it would often be followed by a substantial drop in batting average the following year. According to James, taking a base on balls is a "veteran player skill" because it involves an older ballplayer compensating for slower reflexes and bat speed. But, James reasoned, the increase in walks will result in a decrease in batting average because the pitchers will adjust and will begin to make the hitters hit good pitches.

Could Dunn be nearing the twilight of his career? He seems a little young to be winding down already. On the other hand, Andruw Jones’ batting average fell off a cliff when he turned 29, and Dunn turns 29 in November. So never say never.

If Dunn keeps on walking, how will it affect his contract negotiations? Your guess is as good as mine. But count on Dunn making at least as much as Pat Burrell, who is also a below average outfielder with high OBP and 30 HR power. Tim recently speculated that Burrell should land a contract in the neighborhood of $60 million over four years. Both Burrell and Dunn could benefit from a move to the AL, where they could DH.

Coley Ward writes for Umpbump.com. You can reach him here.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ben Sheets

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It looks like Ben Sheets made the right decision by signing a four-year contract with the Brewers after his spectacular 2004 season. The then-25-year-old tossed 237 innings to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, striking out 264 to just 32 walks, with a WHIP below 1.00. Those are absolutely insane numbers, but because his team was lousy, he finished just eighth in the Cy Young voting. (To be fair, Randy Johnson should have won it, with Sheets a close second.)

Since then, Sheets hasn’t pitched more than 157 innings in a season due to a number of injuries. He’s still managed sub-4.00 ERAs in those seasons, though, a testament to his superior talent. But if he can’t stay healthy, he can’t expect a team to invest big dollars for even four years. His most recent injury does not help allay those fears.

Despite the injury — which seems minor — Sheets has been game-on in his walk year. In his 28 innings this year, he’s struck out 24 to just four walks, and allowed just 14 hits, for a nifty WHIP of 0.64. Time will tell if he can hold up for the entire season, missing the occasional start here and there, as he might next time around the rotation.

So what’s a team in need of pitching to do? If Sheets gets to 190 innings this year, do you gamble four years and, say, $65, $70 million on him? It’s an enormous risk, but if Sheets can stay healthy for three of those four years, it could be well worth it. He joins the top of a free agent pitching class that includes C.C. Sabathia and Carl Pavano Derek Lowe.

Any guesses as to where Sheets goes and for what? I’ve got the Mets at three years and $55MM.

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Derek Lowe

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I was skeptical when the Dodgers signed Scott Boras client Derek Lowe to a four-year, $36MM deal in January of ’05 following an awful season for Boston.  Lowe proved his detractors wrong by demonstrating durability and effectiveness over his first three Dodger seasons.  He’s off to a nice start in this year as well. 

Since the beginning of the ’05 season, Lowe’s 3.64 ERA ranks 11th among all starters with 600 innings.  He doesn’t get enough credit – he’s been a legitimate #1 starter during this contract.

Lowe will sign his next deal as a 35 year-old (he hasn’t had any extension talks with the Dodgers).  Despite Lowe’s age, I have a hunch Boras can squeeze at least three years out of some team.  PECOTA wouldn’t pay more than $20MM for his 2009-11 seasons, though his market price should be twice that.  Other top free agent pitchers next winter include Oliver Perez, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and possibly A.J. Burnett.  Lowe is likely to require the shortest term.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Juan Rivera

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Angels outfielder Juan Rivera is in a tough situation, fighting for playing time in his contract year.  So far he has eight ABs in the team’s first 16 games.  He’s just not getting starter consideration at the DH or corner spots.

Rivera seems like an interesting buy-low candidate, whether via trade during the season or free agency after it.  The one time he received more than 400 ABs, in 2006, he hit .310/.362/.525.  He broke his leg in a winter league game that year and has barely played since.  The Angels aren’t in any hurry to trade him, despite interest.

If the ’08 season continues to depress Rivera’s value, perhaps he could be had one a one-year, $5MM deal.  He turns 30 in July and could be quite a bargain if he returns to form.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Pat Burrell

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Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell was awesome in July and August of last year.  Outside of that, he was just decent.  He’s off to a blazing start in his first 14 games of 2008.  He turns 32 in October and can explore free agency after the season.

Burrell is earning $14MM this year.  Which players might serve as comparables for Burrell’s next deal?  Carlos Lee is similar, though he was a few years younger when he reached free agency in ’06.  Lee received $16.6MM per year for six years.  Burrell could be compared to Alfonso Soriano, who received an even bigger contract.  Hideki Matsui’s average annual salary of $13MM seems like the floor for Burrell.  If he has a typical Burrell year, I expect him to want something in the range of four years and $60MM (similar to Travis Hafner’s current deal). 

The Tigers, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Mets, Reds, Padres, and Giants are teams that may have left field vacancies after the season.  The Rays could have room at DH.  If first base becomes an option, even more teams enter the mix.  The Phillies haven’t ruled out bringing him back and he’d love to re-sign.  Burrell will face competition from Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, and perhaps Manny Ramirez.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Cristian Guzman

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Time for the first edition of Free Agent Stock Watch.  Today we’ll look at the rising stock of 30 year-old Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman, who is eligible for free agency after the ’08 season.

Jim Bowden was heavily criticized for signing the switch-hitting Guzman to a four-year, $16.8MM deal in November of ’04.  He was considered an all-glove, no-hit player.  Guzman was awful for most of ’05, though poor eyesight was suggested as one explanation.

Guzman then missed all of ’06 with shoulder surgery.  The following season was cut short by hamstring and thumb problems.  But since ’07 he’s been a surprisingly respectable hitter in a half-season of ABs.  He may be the slightly more affordable alternative to Rafael Furcal and Orlando Cabrera next winter.  If Guzman stays healthy and somehow posts an .800 OPS (with 90+ runs scored) he could be in line for a three-year, $21MM deal.

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