What’s Mason Miller Worth On The Trade Market?
To say Mason Miller's start to the season has the baseball world buzzing would be an understatement. The second-year A's hurler, whom Oakland selected with the No. 97 overall pick in 2021, has emphatically asserted himself into the conversation for baseball's top reliever. Standing at 6'5" and averaging a comical 101.3 mph on his heater, Miller is the quintessential power pitcher. He's burst out of the gates with a 2.05 ERA in 22 innings, going 9-for-9 in save opportunities and striking out an outrageous 51.9% of his opponents on the year. Eighty-one hitters have had the misfortune of facing Miller. Forty-two of them have gone down on strikes.
Miller allowed two runs in his first outing of the season and was just finally scored upon again yesterday, yielding three earned runs in 1 2/3 frames. Between those two appearances? The right-hander pitched 19 1/3 shutout innings with a 40-to-4 K/BB ratio, fanning an impossible 60.6% of his opponents.
Unsurprisingly, between his dominant performance and the current state of the Athletics, he was quickly speculated upon as a trade candidate -- despite entering the year with six full seasons of club control remaining. As one would expect, teams have inquired. And as you'd also imagine, the asking price is reported to be stratospheric. Miller is going to generate considerable buzz between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Given the massive amount of club control he has remaining, it's a stretch to call him a "likely" trade candidate, but it's a guarantee that teams are going to try. The big question will be how much Oakland will need to be offered to genuinely consider moving him.
Before we dive too far in, let's be clear: this is an exercise without a clear answer. There's no precedent for a pitcher -- or a player -- with this level of early-career dominance and a nearly full slate of six years of control even being available. That we're even talking about it underscores the current state of the A's: a rebuilding team in the midst of relocation whose rebuild has stalled because of nearly universal misses on returns for their top stars. If Oakland were competitive right now or at least seeing enough encouraging returns in the rebuild to think they could be a Wild Card club in 2025-26, this wouldn't even be as serious a topic of discussion.
That's not the world we live in, though. The A's have MLB's fourth-worst run differential and fifth-worst winning percentage. Their farm system ranks near the bottom of the league even after trading Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Lou Trivino, Sam Moll and more. The A's have painted themselves into a corner that's problematic enough that their juggernaut closer is already being floated as a trade candidate despite barely having a year of service time.
So maybe this is indeed an exercise in futility, but let's take a look at some of the most recent trades for big-name relievers and see what we can glean.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Danny Jansen's free agent value, the Brewers' rotation, the Guardians' surprising success, top White Sox prospect Colson Montgomery, Yankees rookie Luis Gil, José Abreu, the Nationals' first base situation and plenty more.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Reds’ Surprisingly Tepid Offense
The Reds went into the year with plenty of optimism. Their young core had surprisingly threatened for a playoff berth and finished above .500 in 2023. The front office followed up by committing more than $100MM -- including nearly $62MM in 2024 salaries alone -- on the free agent market. Cincinnati was a trendy choice to take what looked like a wide open NL Central (and would've been my pick to win the division before a couple key Spring Training injuries).
While it's too soon to write them off entirely, the Reds haven't come close to the heightened expectations through the season's first two months. They're eight games below .500 and above only the Marlins and Rockies in the National League. A lineup loaded with talented young hitters should drive this team to success. Thanks to a combination of injury and a handful of key players underperforming, they've instead had one of the worst offenses in the majors.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skenes, Soto, Mets, White Sox
Today's mailbag digs into what a Paul Skenes extension could look like, whether the Yankees will extend Juan Soto, how the Mets move forward, who the White Sox should trade, and much more. Let's get to it!
Scott asks:
If you’re Paul Skenes, what do the Pirates need to offer to convince you to sign an extension?
I happened to catch Skenes' Wrigley Field start in-person with my kids, and it was awesome. There is a type of guy who replies to any Paul Skenes accomplishment with "When's the Tommy John scheduled?", and I really don't want to align with those guys. He's healthy and incredible right now - just enjoy it without the doomsaying.
That said, there should be an army of nerds at Paul Skenes' agency doing pitcher actuarial type stuff in the event the Pirates come with an extension offer or already have. And the basic fact is that a list of the game's hardest-throwing starting pitchers doubles as a graveyard of injuries.
So OK, Skenes' injury risk is high simply because he's a starting pitcher, and it's even higher because he's the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in baseball. That should be built into any contract offer. But while injuries may be up, his risk is not all that different from a pitcher five years ago.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The White Sox Shouldn’t Wait Long To Make Their Next Trade
For the second time in the past ten years, the White Sox find themselves in a full-scale rebuild. Unlike many other clubs that have torn the roster down to the studs and built back up, there was no real halcyon period between the two rebuilds. The South Siders tore it all down after the 2015 season, finished no better than 72 wins in any of the next four seasons, and had a two-year run atop the AL Central -- one of which was the shortened 2020 season -- before their next nosedive. The 2020 Sox lost to the A's in a three-game Wild Card series. The 2021 Sox lost to the Astros in the ALDS. That was that. Chicago finished the 2022 season with a disappointing 81-81 record, and they drove off a cliff in 2023 with a 101-loss season that led to the firing of longtime baseball operations execs Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams.
Former assistant GM Chris Getz was tasked with turning things around. His offseason consisted of trading Dylan Cease, Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos in a series of future-focused swaps. The ChiSox made mostly modest additions to the big league roster, with a heavy focus on improving the club's defense.
The rebuild continued into the early stages of the 2024 season. Getz's front office inked Robbie Grossman to a minor league contract in late March and managed to flip him after just 25 games. It was a rare sight, both due to Grossman's short tenure with the team but also because he netted the White Sox an actual prospect: Double-A reliever Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa. May trades of big league players -- particularly those who just signed in the offseason -- are exceedingly rare. Most early trades of this nature come on the heels of a DFA. That wasn't the case here. As Darragh McDonald and I discussed on this week's podcast, this was more akin to a lower-profile trade deadline swap. It was frankly a nice bit of business for the White Sox.
Getz and his staff shouldn't stop here, and their next swap should also come sooner than later. While there's any number of players on the White Sox' roster who make sense as a trade candidate, there's one in particular who stands as a logical early-season target for other clubs.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Anthony Franco held a live chat, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, this afternoon. Anthony took questions on the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mets, Tigers, Rays, the Twins deadline priorities, the Orioles outfield, Kyle Hendricks, Esteury Ruiz and much more.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Ryan McMahon Could Be The Next Rockies Test Case
The Rockies finished off a sweep of the Padres yesterday and hold MLB's longest active win streak at seven games. It's their best stretch in five years and has pulled them back ahead of the Marlins at the bottom of the National League.
Colorado is still 13 games below .500, though, leaving them without realistic postseason aspirations. Other teams will call on some of their veteran players throughout the summer. At the top of the list of interesting trade candidates is Ryan McMahon, whose early-season performance should get him some consideration for the first All-Star nod of his career.
McMahon has been a productive player for a few years. He's a plus defender at third base who'll top 20 home runs on an annual basis. While he strikes out a fair amount, he draws enough walks to keep a respectable on-base percentage. After adjusting for his home park, McMahon has been a slightly below-average hitter who provides plenty of defensive value -- a good everyday infielder who's a little shy of being a star.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Severino, Blue Jays, James Wood
Welcome to another edition of my subscriber mailbag! If you're wondering where this paywall thing came from, please read about that here. Today's mailbag gets into Luis Severino's solid start, the future of the Blue Jays, the trajectory of Nationals prospect James Wood, and assessing free agent mega-contracts.
Dmitry asks:
I noticed Luis Severino is doing much better this year. GB rates ticked up, along with his barrels % and overall FB runs value. What's different this year? Did the Mets unlock something Matt Blake couldn't? Better health? Just needed a change of scenery?
Severino has reinvented himself as a groundball pitcher. His 56% groundball rate this year ranks sixth among all qualified starters. In a sense it's good that he's done so, because as with last year's disaster season, his strikeout and walk rates have remained unimpressive. I usually start by looking at a pitcher's K-BB%, and Severino's 11.0% mark is pretty bad and basically the same as it was when he posted a 6.65 ERA last year.
Most of Severino's success came in 2017-18, when he put up 11 WAR across 384 2/3 innings for the Yankees. He missed almost all of 2019 due to a shoulder/lat injury, and then had Tommy John surgery in February 2020. His TJ recovery included a setback along the way due to a shoulder injury. Severino's layoff between MLB games was just shy of two years.
Severino's 2022 season gave hope that he could return to his pre-Tommy John form. Most of his velocity returned, and even though he missed more than two months due to another lat strain, his strikeout and walk rates were reminiscent of the Severino of old over a 102 inning span. It was enough to convince the Yankees to pick up his $15MM club option for 2023. Severino's 2023 season was so bad that he remarked last summer,"Right now, I feel like I am the worst pitcher in the game, no doubt about it."
As you might expect, Severino tinkered with his repertoire heading into 2024. According to SNY's Andy Martino, Severino went to Driveline. Martino wrote, "There, he split his hard slider into a cutter and a sweeper. Neither was as powerful as his old slider, but the two offerings combined to show hitters different speeds and different looks." Martino added, "Severino has added ride to his velocity, creating a more powerful fastball. Played off his new cutter/sweeper mix, which features variances in speed, and a changeup and sinker that helps him get ground balls, and Severino looks like a more complete pitcher." Martino provided a third reason as well, suggesting that Severino tipped his pitches often as a Yankee and has cleaned that up with the Mets.
Indeed, Severino has started using a sinker often. He's using it 16.7% of the time so far this year, according to Brooks Baseball. His career high for sinkers was 2.6% last year. He explained to Tim Britton of The Athletic, "Just to have that pitch in my pocket that can help me get a groundball here, get a double play, get out of an inning with one pitch instead of striking out two guys. I was just thinking about how I can be more productive and save more pitches." An open-mindedness toward sinkers, which have gone out of style in baseball, is a conscious choice for the Mets, which pitching coach Jeremy Hefner explains in Britton's article.
Severino has a 3.00 ERA as of this writing, and if he stays healthy and lands under 4.00 for the season, his one-year deal will have been a big success for Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns. There's probably too much emphasis on that 3.00 ERA through these first 45 innings, though. I think a pretty big correction is coming, because a portion of Severino's success comes from a .250 BABIP and 8.3% home run per flyball rate. He's a bit less interesting with a league average strikeout rate and subpar walk rate, even as one of the league's best groundballers. Severino's SIERA sits at 4.11, though Statcast's expected ERA is solid at 3.59. So he's not allowing a lot of hard contact and could be a 2-3 WAR type moving forward. What Severino is doing this year seems a bit like what Marcus Stroman did last year, but with more velocity.
I took a look at recent starting pitcher seasons with a K-BB% of 12 or below and a groundball rate of 50% or better. There is a survivorship bias, because if that combo isn't working for a pitcher, he'll be removed from the rotation. But this is a weird combination, especially for a pitcher who throws 96. Here are a few comps other than Stroman's 2023:
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR writer Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively with Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on A's star closer Mason Miller, the forthcoming debut of Paul Skenes, the Astros' playoff chances, whether the Orioles should make a change in their bullpen, the Yankees' rotation and more -- including questions on the Pirates, Reds, Mariners, Brewers, White Sox, Tigers and Padres.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Rays Did It Again
Unless you're brand new to baseball fandom -- and if that's the case, welcome! -- you know by now that few teams around the sport have managed to maximize player performance like the Rays. It's become a point of consternation among fans of other clubs and an oft-memed joke on social media, but the Rays have a knack for unearthing hidden gems like practically no other club in the game. In recent seasons, they've turned low-profile pickups of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough and Collin McHugh into high-end performances. They've signed mid-range free agents like Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton and coaxed borderline ace-level performance from them. They've bought low on former top prospects like Tyler Glasnow and struck gold.
That doesn't even factor in buy-low pickups of position players like Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri and others. The Rays may have dropped "Devil" from their name back in 2007, but there are plenty of fans who still lament the Rays' devil magic, which has propelled the team to near-perennial contention despite consistent bottom-of-the-league payrolls.
And if you haven't been paying attention over the past calendar year -- they've done it again.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker