Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Luis Robert's trade value, late-game bullpen possibilities for the Yankees and Cubs, the Astros' decision to move on from José Abreu, Alex Bregman's free agent projection, the cost to extend Tarik Skubal and much more.
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The Astros’ Problematic Long-Term Outlook
The Astros' recent run of success if one of the most remarkable in MLB history. Yes, what everyone now knows about their 2017 season will taint that legacy for many, but Houston has since won a second World Series, appeared in two more, and made the American League Championship Series every single year since 2017. Trash can jokes will never go out of style for some, but what the Astros have accomplished across multiple GMs and multiple managers in the past seven years is objectively incredible.
As we sit more than 40% of the way through the 2024 season, however, it's becoming increasingly apparent that times could be changing. Houston sits 8.5 games back of the Mariners in the American League West and would also need to leapfrog the defending World Series champion Rangers to get back into the division race. The Wild Card scene isn't all that much better. Houston is 5.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, but with five teams standing between them and that potential playoff berth. The roster has been decimated by injuries.
At least at the moment, 2024 doesn't look to be the Astros' year. However, the bigger problem for the Astros isn't necessarily what lies ahead in the final three and a half months of the current season, but rather what looms beyond that point. Because when I say "times could be changing," I'm not referring to a simple one-year hiatus from their typically deep postseason runs. When it comes to the Astros, they're facing far larger and far more concerning long-term questions.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Judge, Luis Robert Jr., Reds, Pirates, Royals
It's time to crack open the MLB mailbag! This week we get into a potential position change for Aaron Judge, possible Luis Robert Jr. trade packages, the AL Cy Young race, possible targets for the Reds, Pirates, and Royals, and much more.
Casey asks:
When Anthony Rizzo's contract runs out with the Yanks, do they move Judge to first? (He's tall enough to make a great stretch, should lower his injury risk and it makes room for Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones.)
The Yankees clearly won't be picking up Rizzo's club option for 2025, so he'll be a free agent after this season. Judge, meanwhile, is signed through 2031 yet will turn 33 in April of next year.
It's so hard to take a competent outfielder and move him down the defensive spectrum with seven years left on his large contract. On the other hand, that's similar to what the Phillies did with Bryce Harper, ending his time as an outfielder at age 30 with nine years left on his deal. I never really understood that decision or why the Phillies weren't questioned more on it. Here's what Harper said in February:
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The Orioles Need More Out Of Center Field
The Orioles have been one of the sport's best teams. They've won two-thirds of their games and trail only the Phillies and Yankees in overall record. A lot has gone right -- from an MVP-caliber performance out of Gunnar Henderson to a Jordan Westburg breakout and quietly excellent performances from Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn (the latter of whom MLBTR's Steve Adams will spotlight later this week).
No team is perfect, though, and the O's go into deadline season with a couple questions. Their rotation depth has taken hits with the losses of John Means and Tyler Wells. The back end of the bullpen could be a bit shaky, especially if Danny Coulombe misses time with an elbow injury. Most surprisingly, the Orioles have had one of the least productive center field situations in the majors. Cedric Mullins was a top ten finisher in MVP voting a couple years back. He's now arguably the only question mark in one of the game's deepest lineups.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Pete Alonso, Bo Bichette, Luis Severino, Trevor Williams' trade value, the middling AL West, Clay Holmes' free agent value and much more.
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Danny Jansen Is Pulling Away From The Rest Of Next Winter’s Catching Class
Last offseason's free agent catching class was very weak. Only three players received a multi-year deal, all of which checked in at two years. Mitch Garver is more of a designated hitter, while Tom Murphy and Victor Caratini are backups. There wasn't a top target for teams looking to the open market for a #1 option.
Next winter's group looks similarly light, with one exception. It's comprised mostly by players in their mid-30s who are generally better suited for backup roles. Yet unlike last winter, there's one player emerging as the clear top of the class. Danny Jansen has been a very good player for the last three years. He has taken things up another level through this season's first couple months. If he can stay healthy, he'll be well-positioned for the top free agent catching contract since Willson Contreras topped $87MM two years ago.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Boras Four, Cubs, Blue Jays, Gambling
I'm back for this week's mailbag! We've got questions on the Boras Four, the Cubs' plan at catcher, available righty relievers, Juan Soto's defense, the Blue Jays' offense, the recent gambling suspensions, my one-third award picks, and much more.
Doug asks:
Do you think that front offices will feel even more compelled to depress free agent salaries after all of the prolonged drama about "The Boras Four" and none of those players panning out to be very good? Will any of Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery opt out of their contract?
Owners and players will be diametrically opposed on player salaries until the end of time, or at least until the end of Major League Baseball. But to your point, it stands to reason that if the early performance of the late-signing Boras pitchers holds up, more front offices will be wary of giving big AAVs to hurlers signing well into spring training, even on short-term deals.
Blake Snell has been terrible, and since debuting April 8th has separate IL stints for adductor and groin strains. Snell recently told reporters, "The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it. You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what [Jordan] Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him."
Montgomery, who expressed a similar sentiment, sits at a 5.48 ERA after eight starts, with the worst strikeout rate of his career.
Some pitchers have succeeded after signing late, notably Ervin Santana signing on 3-12-14 and putting up a 3.2 WAR season for the Braves. But both Snell and Montgomery signed later than Santana did, and most examples show pitchers struggling without a normal spring training.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Yankees' deadline needs, outfield trade possibilities for the Royals, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Diamondbacks' slow start, Tarik Skubal's dominance, Aaron Judge's potential Hall of Fame track and the Cy Young candidacies of star closers Emmanuel Clase and Mason Miller.
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MLB Mailbag: Rooker, Miller, AL Central, Cubs, Sosa, Jays, Pitching Trends
I'm pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes for this week's edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. This week, we'll look at Brent Rooker's trade candidacy, Mason Miller's long-term role, a host of AL Central topics, the Cubs' recent offensive woes, and what could be a tricky deadline full of difficult decisions for the Blue Jays. Let's get into it!
Nathan asks:
Which teams will be most interested in adding Brent Rooker's DH/LF bat and is there any reason for the A's to hold on to him past July?
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Where Can The Braves Go For Outfield Help?
In a season with a number of high-profile injuries, there has been no bigger loss than Ronald Acuña Jr. The defending NL MVP tore the ACL in his left knee over the weekend. It's the second time in the last four years that an ACL tear (in separate knees) has ended his season a few months early.
There's obviously no way of replacing Acuña with anyone close to the same caliber of player. The Braves will likely need to add to the corner outfield in some form over the next two months, though. Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted yesterday that the Acuña injury will push each of Adam Duvall and Jarred Kelenic into an everyday role. That's not an ideal position for a team trying to hang with the Phillies at the top of the NL East.
Atlanta bought low on Kelenic over the winter. The former top prospect still hasn't shown any sign of a legitimate breakout. He has a roughly average .258/.305/.383 batting line over 128 plate appearances. Kelenic's 31.3% strikeout rate is still much too high, and he's walking less often (6.3% of the time) than he did during his final season in Seattle. He can hit the ball hard, but he's still swinging and missing far too frequently. The Braves have also completely shielded him from left-handed pitching. That'll no longer be the case if he's playing everyday, and he's a .188/.252/.307 hitter in 301 career plate appearances against southpaws.
Duvall returned to Atlanta on a $3MM free agent deal midway through Spring Training. His profile is well-established at this point. He hits for power and plays solid defense in the corner outfield. That'll come with low on-base marks and underwhelming strikeout and walk numbers. Duvall has dramatically cut his swing-and-miss in 99 plate appearances this year, but that's largely attributable to the Braves leveraging him heavily against left-handed pitching as Kelenic's platoon partner. Duvall has 14 strikeouts and one walk in 39 plate appearances against righties. At age 35, it seems fair to presume he hasn't suddenly found a new level of plate discipline.
Let's run through a few of the likelier possible trade targets for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta front office.
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