State Of The Astros
Astros GM Tim Purpura has finally admitted that the Astros should not be making player acquisitions with this year in mind. A huge veteran firesale makes perfect sense right now.
As far as the huge blockbuster names – Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt – Purpura specifically says they will not be traded. I have avoided wasting ink on the Oswalt rumors that have bounced around over the past few weeks, because I just didn’t believe them. Oswalt’s 2008-11 total salary – $58MM – is about the same as Mark Buehrle‘s and an equal-sized bargain.
Oswalt mentioned his willingness to waive his no-trade clause if a deal would help the Astros, which I imagine would require the $16MM option for 2012 to be exercised. Regardless, trading Oswalt would be silly. A pitcher of his stature at a reasonable contract is a rarity.
Fortunately for a website that specializes in trade rumors, Purpura still has plenty of parts to sell off. I outlined all the trade candidates in this post.
Brad Lidge seems to be healthy now, and spending all of next week in the Majors closing games for the Astros would go a long way toward his trade value. But maybe a nice run would convince Purpura to keep him. We’ve heard conflicting messages on whether the Astros are willing to trade Lidge. Today, Richard Justice mentions the Indians, Red Sox, and Tigers as "hot for" Lidge.
Right behind Lidge in trade value is Jason Jennings. Jennings, who typically acts as a bullpen-saver, is on the road to re-establishing his health after missing most of April and May with elbow problems. He had a decent June, making six starts and going seven innings in three of them. Since the injury risk and impending free agency may keep his price down, Jennings might be the best realistic trade target among starters.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Andruw, Lidge, Gwynn Jr.
Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up at FOXSports for your viewing pleasure.
- Rosenthal believes that despite Andruw Jones‘s lousy May and June, he’ll still cash in this winter as the best available center fielder. He’ll still provide more offense than Torii Hunter in the long run.
- The Nationals are still asking for the moon in trade talks. If Jim Bowden does start acting reasonable, Dmitri Young, Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, and Ryan Church could be dealt. Word via Bill Ladson of MLB.com is that only the Braves have inquired on Young.
- Brad Lidge is expected to remain an Astro. The main reason: Drayton McLane still doesn’t think his team is out of it. Most simulations a 2% chance or less of reaching the playoffs. If the Astros finally do acknowledge reality, they’d prefer to trade relievers other than Lidge (ie, Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls).
- The Rangers and Brewers were close to a trade: Akinori Otsuka to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr. Rosenthal seemed to dislike it, but I think it made sense for the Crew. Regardless, Bill Hall‘s injury thwarted the deal as Gwynn will be needed to man center.
- The new plan for the Brewers is to call up 29 year-old Grant Balfour, who’s dominated in the minors. He endured elbow and shoulder woes before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of ’05. In the midst of his TJ recovery, Balfour developed the need for shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and labrum. This guy would be pumping gas if he’d been born a few decades earlier. After the surgeries, the Twins cut Balfour and the Reds snagged him. Balfour rehabbed with the Reds but never made it to the bigs; the Brewers claimed him off waivers in October of ’06. He’s all the way back; Johnny Estrada was singing his praises back in February.
Red Sox Interested In Chad Qualls
Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle appeared on XM Radio’s Baseball Beat yesterday, and reported that the Red Sox are interested in Astros reliever Chad Qualls.
Qualls, who will turn 29 this year, has a 4.50 ERA through 40 innings. His strikeout rate is way up, but so are the hits and home runs. He was worked pretty hard last year with 81 appearances. Qualls is a long way from free agency. A few items of note: he dealt with shoulder tendinitis this spring, and has a likely two-game suspension coming for throwing a ball into the stands.
Let’s Talk Astros Fire Sale
A reader pointed out to me that the Astros are out of contention, and can’t possibly think they’re just a player or two away. I hadn’t noticed how far back Houston has already fallen. Every simulation I can find gives the Astros less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
The big three – Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt – those guys are obviously staying put. That’s about $40 mil on the books for ’08 right there.
Next we get to Woody Williams, who is unfortunately signed through 2008. Williams and his 4.67 K/9 won’t help any American League team. With a 5.58 ERA, durability questions, and a home run problem, Williams has very little trade value. And he’s making $6.25MM in ’08, at which point he will be 41. Yikes.
Then there’s Jason Jennings, earning $5.5MM this year. The Rockies clearly got the better end of that trade, but it was a "win now" move by Tim Purpura. Jennings needs to prove his health over the next couple of weeks, and then he’ll become the Astros’ best trading chip. He’s dealt with shoulder and elbow tendinitis this year, but Jennings is a bulldog. Could Purpura pry away an Andy LaRoche for him? Maybe not, as Ned Colletti wouldn’t want to get burned by an injury again so quickly. Not sure what the Phillies would spare, and the Astros don’t really have a spot for Mariner right field prospect Wladimir Balentien. But this is a situation to monitor.
Perhaps Jennings could be packaged with Brad Lidge and sent to the Phillies for one truly good prospect. Lidge is recovering from an oblique issue, but was on a nice run prior to that. Despite his struggles over the last couple of years, Lidge’s skills will put him in high demand. He’s got the name value that Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls don’t, and he should be the one to go. I could rattle off ten teams that could use a guy like Lidge.
Morgan Ensberg is expendable; his bat has been anemic this year. Maybe a fresh start and regular playing time would help him return to his 25 HR days. He’s controlled through 2008. The Twins, Phillies, and Giants seem like options, and Ensberg shouldn’t cost much.
Brad Ausmus will be a free agent after this year; his .335 OBP isn’t terrible for a catcher. I’d suggest the Cubs but I think they really want to try Rob Bowen.
Mike Lamb is a free agent after the season, and he’s quietly hit pretty well for the past couple of years. Again, the Twins or Phillies could snag him. It’d be a very Twins-esque move. The Yankees could jump in and get him for first base; he’d be better than Shea Hillenbrand.
Mark Loretta is hitting .322 and would be a nice versatile guy to bring along to the playoffs. Maybe the Braves would have a look if Yunel Escobar tails off in July and Kelly Johnson doesn’t recover.
Dan Wheeler could turn out to be a nice buy low; he’s had a a run of success prior to this year and his peripherals still aren’t bad. Plus he’s controlled through ’08. Trever Miller‘s been awful as the lefty specialist, but maybe a new team could fix his control problem and get something out of him.
Jason Lane is another good low-risk type acquisition. He’s trying to recover his stroke in Triple A currently. The White Sox should go after him.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Latest From Gammons
The man himself, Peter Gammons, had a blog posting on Saturday that I neglected to mention here.
- Gammons mentions some suitors for Mark Buehrle: the Mets, Cardinals, and Mariners. He draws the Jermaine Dye/Padres connection we have seen in the past.
- Gammons believes the Astros will move one of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, or Chad Qualls. However, that was written before Lidge hit the DL for a strained oblique. Houston would also love to move Morgan Ensberg, but that’s nothing new.
- The Dodgers are looking for a corner infield slugger, but aren’t interested in Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen. Adam Dunn isn’t in the Dodgers’ plans, either. Dunn’s defensive limitations really seem to be hindering a deal. If they are going to give up multiple young future stars, it’s going to take Mark Teixeira. In other words, they’d go all-in.
- Bill Stoneman is "cautiously looking for a bat." Cautious is the name of the game with Stoneman. It’s a seller’s market for power hitters. Imagine what the Marlins could get for Miguel Cabrera.
Mets Inquire On Buehrle, Lidge
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger writes that the Mets have inquired as to the availability of starter Mark Buehrle as well as reliever Brad Lidge.
According to Graziano, a Buehrle acquisition would allow the Mets to move Jorge Sosa to the bullpen, helping two areas at once. Apparently Omar Minaya has been a big Buehrle fan for a while. Something involving Lastings Milledge would make a ton of sense. Would a Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber be required as well?
Kenny Williams and Omar Minaya have matched up a couple times before, when Minaya was GM of the Expos. The Sox plucked Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett from the Expos in separate deals, sending away Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jon Rauch, and Gary Majewski. With over a month to spare, it sounds like Williams will sit back and see what offers come to him. On the other hand, the acquiring team can’t afford to wait.
Graziano says the Mets believe Lidge would be very comfortable working behind Billy Wagner, his former mentor. The availability of Lidge is still in question however.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken. Let’s review.
- As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn. We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him. Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move. The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur. The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point. And the Twins? They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
- With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him. Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return. Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem. A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
- Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne‘s limited no-trade protection. Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams. The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors. Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline. Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
- The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher. Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency. The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both. I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge. Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need.
- Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena? Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club. I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
- Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
- The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.
Scouting The Reds
The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th. It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade. Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.
Five articles referenced Dunn this morning. The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:
"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."
One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton. But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable. The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades. While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract. And he’d have to be open to playing left field. Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.
The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more. Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too. Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn. I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.
Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market. The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg. Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.
Stark’s Latest
Jayson Stark has an assessment of the trade market over at ESPN.com.
- Aside from the usual Mark Teixeira/Eric Gagne mentions, Stark believes many Rangers may be headed out at the trading deadline. Specifically, he names Brad Wilkerson, Kenny Lofton, and Sammy Sosa. Lofton is always a good midseason mercenary. He’s like a Mike Stanton in that way.
- Ken Griffey Jr. would approve a trade to Atlanta and might consider certain other teams. Junior is making $12.5MM this year and next, plus a $4MM buyout for ’09. Quite a bit of the contract is deferred, also. $29MM over 2007-08 is still pretty steep, but now would be the right time to trade Griffey.
- Nationals – still asking too much for Chad Cordero. Bowden’s got time to wait around for the right deal, I suppose.
- Best option for Todd Helton still appears to be the Angels, in Stark’s mind. That does not seem workable to me, because Casey Kotchman has broken out and Vlad needs access to the DH spot.
- Speaking of DHs, this might finally be the year Mike Sweeney gets traded and gets to play for a contender. If he heats up, maybe the Twins could snag him.
- Michael Bourn could be a trade candidate, if the Phillies decide he’s only a future fourth outfielder. Probably makes sense to keep him around if Aaron Rowand is going to walk after this season.
- The Astros are buyers, and they have all sorts of needs. A young catcher would be nice, but those are always in short supply.
- Speaking of young catchers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has received interest but the Braves are not biting. A lot hinges on Scott Thorman‘s performance and, of course, which young player the Braves are offered for Salty. Most teams would love to have him.