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MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Notable Draft Signings: 7/24/24

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A handful of draft prospects have agreed to $2MM+ bonuses over the past two days. Unless otherwise noted, bonuses were first reported by Jim Callis of MLB.com. Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • Padres first-round pick Kash Mayfield agreed to terms at $3.4421MM. That’s full slot value for the 25th pick to keep him from attending Oklahoma State. Mayfield was the second high school pitcher off the board. The 6’4″ southpaw has a three-pitch mix, advanced control, and can touch 97 MPH. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm. San Diego went with another high school pitcher, Boston Bateman, in the second round. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports (on X) that he lands an above-slot $2.5MM bonus. Bateman is a massive left-hander with mid-90s velocity and a good slider, but his 6’8″ frame leads to questionable command projection. He’d been committed to LSU.
  • The Brewers agreed to a $3.44MM bonus with first-round pick Braylon Payne. Milwaukee selected the Texas high school outfielder with the 17th selection. Payne was not generally expected to go in the first round. McDaniel was highest on him, ranking 38th in his pre-draft list. Milwaukee cut an underslot deal but still paid Payne like a late first-round talent to sign him out of a commitment to the University of Houston. Evaluators credit Payne with at least 70-grade speed and the ability to stick in center field, though there’s some skepticism about his offensive upside. Second-round pick Blake Burke landed a $2.1MM bonus, Collazo reports (X link). A first baseman from the University of Tennessee, he hit .379/.449/.702 this season.
  • The Dodgers signed #23 pick Kellon Lindsey for $3.3MM, as first reported by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. That’s a bit below the approximate $3.68MM slot value. Lindsey is a high school infielder who’d been committed to Florida. He’s a top-of-the-scale runner who could eventually fit in center field, though he has played shortstop in high school. All four outlets note that Lindsey has similarities to Trea Turner at the same age, though that’d clearly be at the very high end of his range of outcomes. He’s listed at 6’0″ and 175 pounds and might have limited power but could offer a traditional leadoff profile.
  • Rangers first-round pick Malcolm Moore signed for $3MM. That’s just above slot for the 30th selection. A Stanford product, Moore is a left-handed hitting catcher. He’s regarded as a bat-first player with questions about his ability to stick behind the dish, but his hit/power combination made him a first round talent. Moore turned in a .255/.414/.553 slash with more walks than strikeouts this season. He was a draft-eligible sophomore who turns 21 next week.
  • The A’s went above slot to sign second-round pick Tommy White for $3MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). The 40th pick comes with a value around $2.33MM. White’s bonus more closely aligned with the very end of the first round. An LSU product, the righty-hitting White had an OPS above 1.000 in all three college seasons. He hit .330/.401/.638 with 24 homers in his draft year. He has good contact skills and massive raw power, though there’s some concern about his aggressive approach. White played third base in college but isn’t a good athlete and could move to first base in pro ball. Oakland also went above slot with a $2MM bonus for third-rounder Gage Jump, Callis reports (X link). A teammate of White’s at LSU, Jump has a mid-90s fastball and a pair of breaking pitches. Most evaluators project him to the bullpen because of inconsistent control and his smaller stature.
  • The Diamondbacks have agreements with supplemental picks Ryan Waldschmidt and J.D. Dix. Waldschmdit, a righty-hitting outfielder from the University of Kentucky, gets the $2.904MM value associated with the 31st pick. Law ranked him as the #11 player in the class, while FanGraphs and ESPN had him at the back of the top 20. Waldschmidt had a massive junior season, hitting .333/.469/.610. He’s limited to left field but draws praise for his plate discipline and exit velocities. Dix is a switch-hitting high school shortstop from Wisconsin. A Wake Forest commit, he has a well-rounded profile but underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder last fall and spent a chunk of this spring as a designated hitter.
  • Yankees first-round pick Ben Hess agreed to terms at $2.7475MM, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (on X). He was taken 26th overall, which comes with a slot value around $3.33MM. Hess is a 6’5 right-hander from the University of Alabama. He works in the mid-90s fastball and has a promising slider. Law ranked him 24th in the class and wrote that he has mid-rotation potential. Hess had a mixed track record in college and struggled to throw strikes in his draft year, though. He posted a 5.80 earned run average across 15 appearances this season. The Yanks went above slot in the second round for righty Bryce Cunningham, who signed for $2.2975MM. He had a 4.36 ERA over 16 starts this season for Vanderbilt. The 6’5″ hurler has a three-pitch mix and a chance to stick as a starter.
  • The Phillies have a $2.5MM deal with first-rounder Dante Nori. He was selected with the 27th pick, which comes with a value around $3.23MM. Nori is a left-handed hitting outfielder from Michigan who’d been committed to Mississippi State. Evaluators praise his speed and nascent power potential. He’s significantly older than the typical high schooler, turning 20 not long after the draft.
  • The Twins agreed to a $2.4MM bonus with 33rd pick Kyle DeBarge, Collazo reports (on X). Callis reports that Minnesota also went above slot to sign 69th pick Dasan Hill for $2MM. DeBarge is a 5’9″ shortstop from the University of Louisiana who hit .356/.418/.699 this season. He’s a hit over power player who could project to a utility role. Hill is a lanky left-hander from a Texas high school who had been committed to Dallas Baptist. FanGraphs had him as the #24 player in the class and projected him as a potential mid-rotation starter.
  • 39th overall pick Caleb Lomavita signed with the Nationals. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports (on X) that he landed a $2.325MM bonus that is just below slot value. Lomavita is a righty-hitting catcher out of Cal who has advanced contact skills and a good chance to stick behind the plate. His very aggressive offensive approach leads to some risk about his on-base floor. Lomavita hit .322/.395/.586 during his draft season but only walked 12 times in 55 games. The Nationals acquired the 39th pick from the Royals in the Hunter Harvey trade.

Christian Yelich Could Require Back Surgery

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12:02pm: Yelich is meeting with a spine specialist tomorrow, and season-ending back surgery is a possibility, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

“Everybody plays through stuff, but  sometimes you just can’t,” Yelich tells McCalvy. “That’s kind of where we’re at, at this point. Your body won’t cooperate with you.”

10:35am: The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve placed Christian Yelich on the 10-day injured list due to lower back inflammation. Catcher Gary Sanchez was activated from the IL to take Yelich’s spot on the roster.

Yelich exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs with tightness in his back, and he’s taken a more ominous tone this morning when discussing the injury with the Brewers beat. He’s headed to see a specialist, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link), and Yelich’s description of what comes next foreshadowed a potentially notable absence.

“Go from there as far as what’s going to be best for the near future and into the future,” Yelich said of his visit to a back specialist. “A couple different discussions I think that need to be had.”

Yelich, 32, saw his production tail off in 2020-21, but the former MVP has been on the upswing since. His numbers have improved in three straight seasons, culminating in a vintage .315/.406/.504 batting line through his first 315 plate appearances of the 2024 season. That’s 56% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, which stands as the third-highest mark in Yelich’s excellent career. His reemergence as one of the National League’s best and most well-rounded offensive players has played a huge role in Milwaukee’s five-game lead in the division, but Yelich’s comments this morning are far from optimistic.

The Brewers are deeper in outfielders than most clubs, so there are plenty of internal options to step into his spot, though clearly no one can be expected to replicate Yelich’s standout offense this season. Still, Milwaukee has Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins all on the big league roster at the moment. Former top prospect Joey Wiemer has a 16.6% walk rate and .376 OBP down in Triple-A (though his typical power output has curiously been M.I.A.). Milwaukee also just added the appropriately named Brewer Hicklen to its 40-man roster last week; the 28-year-old has hit .274/.383/.569 with 19 homers and 27 steals in Triple-A Nashville after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.

It’s not yet clear how much time Yelich can be expected to miss, but with the trade deadline just six days away, it’s easy enough to see this injury having some broad-reaching impact on the Brewers’ deadline outlook. Yelich’s absence could make the Brewers more wary of dealing from that stash of controllable young outfielders. It’s also feasible that a long-term absence could push the Brewers to look into adding a bat, regardless of position. Yelich has been the team’s best hitter and has also appeared in 26 games as a designated hitter. That could open up some at-bats for any new hitter to step into the lineup.

Starting pitching figures to remain the Brewers’ focus, even after adding Aaron Civale in a deal with the Rays earlier this month, but Yelich’s injury is a difficult one to stomach for a division-leading team. There’s no comparable hitter who could be had, of course, but it stands to reason that a long-term absence for Yelich could prompt Milwaukee to look at a variety of bats who could deepen the lineup.

Rays Claim Joel Kuhnel From Brewers

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The Rays announced that they have claimed right-hander Joel Kuhnel off waivers from the Brewers. Milwaukee designated him for assignment a couple of days ago. The Rays already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so their count climbs to 38.

Kuhnel, 29, has been featured in the pages of MLB Trade Rumors plenty of times this year but hasn’t been able to factor into many MLB games. He started 2024 on the Astros’ roster but was designated for assignment, outrighted and elected free agency before re-signing with Houston on a minor league deal by the end of January. He was selected back onto their roster in April but then designated for assignment again later that month.

He then went to the Blue Jays in a cash deal but that club kept him on optional assignment for a few weeks before he was designated for assignment and elected free agency once again. He landed with the Brewers on a minor league deal and was twice selected to that club’s roster but both stints resulted in him being designated for assignment without him pitching in a game.

Around all of those transactions, he only has one appearance in the big leagues this year, when he allowed four earned runs in two innings for the Astros. But in his 27 1/3 minor league innings, he has a 2.30 earned run average. His 15% strikeout rate is subpar but he’s racked up huge numbers of ground balls.

That’s generally been the recipe for Kuhnel in his career. He has 85 2/3 big league innings overall, most of that with the Reds. His 6.30 ERA in that time obviously isn’t great, nor is his 19% strikeout rate, but he has kept 52.2% of balls in play on the ground and has clearly attracted the attention of several clubs around the league.

The Rays have a bunch of open roster spots right now. In the past month, they have traded Aaron Civale and Phil Maton. They also designated Chris Devenski for assignment and put Yandy Díaz on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter. Tyler Zuber was selected to take one of those spots but they still had three available and have now used one of them on Kuhnel.

Kuhnel averages in the mid-90s with both of his fastballs and also throws a slider and a changeup. Given that velocity and pitch mix, perhaps clubs around the league believe there’s room to coax some more strikeouts out of him, in addition to his ground ball tendencies. He is also in his final option year and can therefore be sent to the minors for the rest of this season. His service time count is between one and two years, so he could be a long-term piece if things break right.

Brewers Acquire Tyler Jay From Mets

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The Mets have dealt left-hander Tyler Jay to the Brewers in exchange for minor league right-hander TJ Shook, per a club announcement. Jay had been designated for assignment by New York last week to make room for lefty Alex Young on the club’s 40-man roster. The Brewers had an open spot for Jay on their 40-man roster after designating Joel Kuhnel for assignment earlier today.

Jay, 30, was the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Twins. Jay struggled to establish himself in the upper levels of the minors, however, and he departed affiliated ball following the canceled 2020 minor league season to pitch the 2022 campaign for the Frontier League’s Joliet Slammers. He pitched well in Indy Ball with a 3.53 ERA with 88 strikeouts in 79 innings of work between the 2022 and ’23 seasons. The lefty returned to affiliated ball on a minor league deal with the Mets partway through last year and after struggling in his Triple-A debut last year, looked solid in 41 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning reliever at the level this year with a 2.40 ERA despite a relatively lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate.

That performance was strong enough to earn Jay his first taste of big league action with the Mets back in April. He looked good in two appearances with the Mets, allowing one run on five hits and a walk while striking out one in four innings of work, but was designated for assignment after a week in the majors to make room on the club’s roster for Michael Tonkin. Jay remained with the Mets following his outright assignment and continued to put up strong numbers at the Triple-A level, earning him another big league opportunity on July 1. That appearance went poorly, however, as Jay surrendered four runs (three earned) while recording just two outs against two hits, two walks, and two strikeouts. That was Jay’s only appearance of his second stint in New York, and his time with the organization now comes to an end with a career ERA of 7.71 at the big league level.

Now, Jay is headed to the Brewers where he figures to join a bullpen full of reclamation relief arms who have managed to put together strong results in Milwaukee. The club is currently relying on Bryan Hudson, Jared Koenig, Hoby Milner, and Rob Zastryzny as lefty relief options, and Jay figures to be the next man up behind that group from the left side while Kevin Herget acts as the top depth option behind the bullpen’s right-handed pitchers.

In exchange for Jay’s services, the Brewers are parting ways with Shook, who they signed as an undrafted free agent back in 2020. The 26-year-old right-hander worked his way through the minor league system fairly quickly in his first few years in the organization but has stalled out a bit at the Double-A level in the years since then, having pitched there since partway through the 2022 season. In 242 career innings at the level, Shook has a 5.06 ERA despite a solid 24.2% strikeout rate thanks to an elevated 10% walk rate and a tendency towards allowing home runs. Things have improved slightly for Shook this year, however, as he’s posted a 4.90 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate against a more manageable 8.9% walk rate with just seven home runs allowed in 64 1/3 innings of work.

Brewers Designate Joel Kuhnel For Assignment

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The Brewers have reinstated left-hander Jared Koenig from the 15-day injured list. Right-hander Joel Kuhnel was designated for assignment. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed the moves on X. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.

It seems as though Kuhnel has been Milwaukee’s “break glass in case of emergency” pitcher but without that emergency ever arising. He has been selected to the Brewers’ roster twice this year and both of those stints on the roster resulted in him getting designated for assignment without pitching in a game.

Kuhnel has an option year remaining and they could have just sent him down to Nashville, but it’s possible they will be using that 40-man roster spot in the coming days. Each of Devin Williams, Joe Ross and DL Hall are on the 60-day injured list but each is rehabbing and could rejoin the big league club soon. Each of them will require roster spots once they are activated so the Brewers have opened one by designating Kuhnel for assignment today.

They will have one week to work a trade or pass Kuhnel through waivers, though the waiver process takes 48 hours, leaving a five-day window for trade talks. Kuhnel has 85 2/3 innings of major league experience with a 6.30 earned run average. His 19% strikeout rate is subpar but he’s limited walks to a 6.3% clip and kept 52.2% of balls in play on the ground.

This year, he has bounced between the Astros, Blue Jays and Brewers with only two innings in the majors. His 27 1/3 Triple-A innings have resulted in a 2.30 ERA, 15% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and his typical big ground ball rates.

Abner Uribe Undergoes Season-Ending Knee Surgery

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Brewers right-hander Abner Uribe announced on his Instagram that he underwent season-ending knee surgery, as relayed on X by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “Unfortunately the 2024 season has come to an end for me,” the post says.

It was reported just over a month ago that Uribe would require surgery to fix a right lateral meniscus tear in his knee. At the time, it wasn’t known what kind of return timeline he would be looking at, as it would depend on what doctors found once the procedure began. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold said it could have been something as mild as “a light cleanup” but that evidently hasn’t come to pass and he won’t be able to return again in 2024.

Uribe, now 24, had a strong debut with the Brewers in 2023. He tossed 30 2/3 innings, allowing just 1.76 earned runs per nine. His 15.7% walk rate was certainly on the high side but he also punched out 30.7% of batters faced and got grounders on 53% of balls in play.

But 2024 has been more tumultuous. It started out well for Uribe, as closer Devin Williams required a stint on the injured list and the Brewers gave Uribe a shot in the role. His first three appearances this year all resulted in him recording a save, but things got rockier from there. His results tapered off and he also received a six-game suspension for his part in a brawl with the Rays.

Uribe was optioned to the minors on May 1, the same day he received that suspension. At that point, despite the strong start to the year, he had a 6.91 ERA through 14 1/3 innings. He was still getting lots of ground balls but his 21.2% strikeout rate was well below last year’s pace and his already-problematic walk rate jumped even higher to 18.2%.

His six-game suspension was reduced to four games but he hasn’t yet served it. Suspensions for on-field violations require the team to play a man short, so the Brewers still have to find some time in the future to recall Uribe and have him on the roster serving his suspension while they play shorthanded. Until then, the suspension will remain hanging over him in a state of limbo.

On top of his shaky performance, the suspension and getting sent to the minors, Uribe now has to focus on a lengthy injury rehab. Because he was injured on optional assignment, he’s not currently collecting major league pay or service time. Since he’s out for the year, the Brewers could recall him at some point and transfer him to the 60-day injured list. Doing so would open up a 40-man roster spot for them, but it would also require them to give Uribe that big league pay and service time.

He came into this year with 86 days of service and added another 34 earlier this year, putting him at 120. It takes 172 days for a player to roll over a year, so he’s 52 shy of that right now. There are 73 days left in the 2024 season. He is burning his second option year here in 2024 but will still have one option remaining for the future.

Dallas Keuchel Elects Free Agency

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Veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel cleared waivers and elected free agency after being designated for assignment by the Brewers, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports. He’s now free to sign with any club.

Keuchel, 36, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners over the winter but was acquired by Milwaukee for cash last month. He’d gotten out to a nice start with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma (71 innings, 3.93 ERA, 15.6% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 59.5% grounder rate), and a Brewers club in dire need of rotation innings turned to the former Cy Young winner to help patch their injury-ravaged staff. Keuchel had two tough starts and two solid ones for the Brew Crew, pitching a total of 16 2/3 innings with an 11-to-8 K/BB ratio and 52.5% ground-ball rate before being designated.

Keuchel had a similar but lengthier stint as a depth starter with the Twins down the stretch in 2023, appearing in 10 games (six of them starts) and posting a 5.97 ERA in 37 2/3 frames. As with Milwaukee, he had his share of solid appearances in the Twin Cities but was also hit quite hard on a few occasions.

It’s been years since Keuchel, the 2015 American League Cy Young winner, was a solid member of a big league rotation. He made 11 starts and tossed 63 1/3 innings of sparkling 1.99 ERA ball with the White Sox in the shortened 2020 season, but the final two seasons of his three-year, $55.5MM deal in Chicago was a disaster. Dating back to 2021, Keuchel has pitched to a grisly 6.24 ERA in 277 innings — a far cry from the 1126 innings of 3.25 ERA ball he compiled in his 2014-20 peak.

Rough as Keuchel’s recent results have been, the veteran southpaw has pitched quite well in Triple-A over the past few seasons. This year’s 88.1 mph average velocity on his sinker obviously sits well below the league average but is also his best mark since a strong 2019 season with the Braves, when he averaged 88.3 mph. Keuchel worked with Driveline Baseball during the early part of the ’23 season to restore some of his dwindling velocity and parlayed that into his deal with the Twins. He’s now added a bit more life to the sinker and still looked sharp in two of his four Milwaukee appearances. A club in need of some rotation depth figures to scoop him up on a minor league pact in the coming weeks.

Current And Former Top Prospects To Watch As The Trade Deadline Approaches

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Last week, MLBTR's Anthony Franco ran through a handful of under-the-radar trade candidates for teams on the hunt for bullpen help. It was a simple enough premise. While there's rightly a heavy focus placed on high-quality relievers on bad teams (e.g. Mason Miller, Tanner Scott, Carlos Estevez), MLB teams will be casting a wider net than just those obvious trade candidates.

I wanted to do something similar with hitters -- and may still do so -- but as I parsed through some potential options, I was also struck by the likelihood that there are a number of current and former (more of the latter) top prospects who increasingly look like they'll have an uphill battle to earning a role with their current club. Oftentimes, this is due to other prospects leapfrogging them on the depth chart, the team extending a current key player and/or injuries. While today's front offices tend to hoard depth as much as possible the finite number of minor league options a player possesses can put an inherent clock on that depth's shelf life.

Not all of the players highlighted in this exercise are teetering on being out of options, nor is this intended to be an exhaustive list of names in this situation. (If there's anyone you feel I missed, by all means, let me know in the comments and bring them to the discussion!) I'm also not going to focus much on former prospects who've already been passed through waivers/released or those who are performing poorly enough in the minors that they're now DFA candidates themselves.

The aim here is to find some interesting, controllable names still on the 40-man roster who have decent minor league (and in some cases, big league) track records but lack a clear path to an everyday role on their current roster. That sort of player ought to have appeal to rebuilding teams or retooling sellers who are looking to take another shot at contending as soon as next year. Here are a few situations that seem worth monitoring as the deadline draws near:

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Brewers Select Brewer Hicklen

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The Brewers have selected the contract of outfielder Brewer Hicklen, though he has been optioned and will stay at Triple-A Nashville. Infielder Oliver Dunn was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. The moves were relayed on X by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

Hicklen, 28, signed with Milwaukee in the offseason in a textbook case of nominative determinism. Since signing that deal, he has been having a great year in Triple-A. In 72 games for the Sounds, he has been struck out at a high rate of 26.5% but has also drawn walks 13.1% of the time and hit 19 home runs. That’s led to a .270/.383/.571 slash line and 139 wRC+, indicating he’s been 39% better than the league average hitter. He’s also stolen 26 bases in 30 tries while lining up at all three outfield spots.

When a player is selected to a 40-man roster but then immediately optioned, it’s usually a sign that his contract contains some kind of opt-out provision. Per McCalvy on X, Hicklen did indeed have a such a clause in his deal. The Brewers aren’t going to bring him up to the majors but have given him a roster spot because they didn’t want him to get away after that strong performance in the first few months of the 2024 season.

It will be difficult for him to crack the outfield at the big league level, as Milwaukee has a fairly crowded group of guys competing for playing time on the grass. As of right now, Christian Yelich is serving as the designated hitter fairly regularly but also with some outfield time mixed in there. Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio and Blake Perkins are splitting the rest of the time out there. With those five guys on the active roster, Joey Wiemer has been on optional assignment for much of the year. The club toyed with using Frelick at third base earlier this year but Joey Ortiz has firmly taken over that spot.

Hicklen has a full slate of options and can be kept around as depth for quite a while, if the Brewers keep him on the 40-man. Speculatively speaking, it’s also possible that the club’s relative strength in the outfield could be used to address their need for pitching, which could perhaps change the outfield picture in the coming weeks.

Whenever Hicklen is back up in the majors, he can add to a track record that currently consists of just six games with the Royals in 2022. He only got four plate appearances in that time and is still looking for his first major league hit, as he struck out in all four of those trips to the plate. He’s generally hit well in the minors, with a slash of .244/.348/.469 and 113 wRC+ from 2021 to 2023 and has been in even better form this year.

As for Dunn, he was placed on the 10-day injured list on June 19 due to a back strain. He’s now ineligible to return until 60 days from that date, which would be in the middle of August. On June 29, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed on X that Dunn was expected to miss more than a month due to a disc issue in his back.

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