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MLBTR Podcast: Fallout From The Trade Deadline And Mike Trout Injured Again

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Astros Claim Janson Junk

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The Astros claimed right-hander Janson Junk off waivers from the Brewers, tweets Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Junk was designated for assignment when Milwaukee reinstated Devin Williams from the 60-day injured list. Houston already had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so no additional moves were necessary. Junk has been optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land and will give the ’Stros some additional depth.

This is the final option year for Junk, 28, who’s pitched in the big leagues in each of the past four seasons. He’s only received scattered looks during his time with the Angels and Brewers, logging a combined 40 innings with a 5.18 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 44.8% ground-ball rate. He’s worked both as a starter and reliever in his pro career, and though he’s primarily spent the season in the bullpen with the Brewers’ Triple-A Nashville affiliate, he’s frequently worked in multi-inning stints throughout the summer.

Junk’s big league numbers may not be particularly sharp, but he sports a tidy 2.55 earned run average in 35 1/3 Triple-A frames this season. He’s punched out 23.6% of his opponents there against a 10.1% walk rate. Junk has been outstanding of late, too. He’s rattled off 17 straight scoreless frames in Nashville, logging a 19-to-7 K/BB ratio along the way and only yielding a dozen hits in that time. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Junk has a 4.15 ERA over the life of 251 1/3 innings.

Brewers Acquire Frankie Montas

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The Reds and Brewers lined up on an intra-division trade Monday night. Cincinnati is reportedly sending right-hander Frankie Montas to Milwaukee for young outfielder Joey Wiemer, veteran right-hander Jakob Junis and cash.

Montas, 31, gives the Brewers a veteran arm to plug into a rotation that’s been decimated by injury, although the big right-hander isn’t having anywhere close to his best season. The longtime A’s hurler signed a one-year, $16MM contract after missing nearly the entire 2023 season due to shoulder surgery and hasn’t recaptured the form that established him as a quality big leaguer from 2019-22, when he logged 480 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with a 25.4% strikeout rate against a 7.2% walk rate.

Rather, the 2024 version of Montas is sitting on a 5.01 ERA with a diminished 19% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate that stands as his worst since 2017. His 95.3 mph average fastball is down 1.5 mph from its 96.8 mph peak back in 2019, and Montas has seen a huge dip in swinging-strike rate, falling from a peak 13.7% to 10.4% this season.

It’s been an ugly season for Montas, but the Brewers also have a history of getting more out of pitchers than one would expect at first glance. They’ve gotten strong results from righties Colin Rea and Tobias Myers this season despite minimal to nonexistent track records from both. Milwaukee presumably has a plan to get Montas back into form, but it’s nevertheless a modest surprise to see them deal a former top prospect (Wiemer) within the division to effectively rent Montas for the final two months of the 2024 season.

That said, Wiemer’s inclusion in the deal speaks to the manner in which his stock has dropped over the past year-plus. Entering the 2023 season, he was regarded by some as one of the sport’s top-100 prospects. However, the 2020 fourth-rounder stumbled through his first taste of the majors last year, hitting just .204/.283/.362 in 410 plate appearances. Wiemer pounded 13 homers and swiped 11 bags but also struck out in just under 29% of his plate appearances. He’s also shown glaring platoon splits in limited big league action, slashing .263/.290/.481 against lefties but registering a woeful .169/.271/.281 slash against fellow righties. Wiemer’s power has been missing in action this season in Triple-A Nashville, where he’s hit .242/.387/.358 with only three homers in 253 plate appearances.

Wiemer’s platoon splits suggest that he could at the very least be a useful part-time player, and he’s also graded out exceptionally well in the outfield. In 1095 innings across all three outfield spots — primarily center — he’s been credited with six Defensive Runs Saved, seven Outs Above Average and a 5.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast pegged him in the 93rd percentile of MLB outfielders in terms of range and 96th percentile in terms of value generated with his arm.

If nothing else, Wiemer has the look of a short-side platoon fourth outfielder. He’s in the second of three option years and is under club control through at least the 2029 season. The Reds will hope there’s some more in the tank, but pulling a controllable MLB-ready outfielder — even one in the midst of a down season — in exchange for the rental of a struggling veteran starter had some understandable appeal for Cincinnati.

The Reds will also pick up their own veteran rental in the deal. The 31-year-old Junis is on a one-year, $7MM contract that contains a mutual option for the 2025 season. He’s spent most of the year on the injured list but returned in June and has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, working primarily as a long reliever. He’s fanned 18.8% of his opponents against a 5% walk rate. Had Junis been healthy this year, he might’ve gotten a look in the rotation, but the Brewers must not be bullish on his chances of holding up in that role. He hasn’t worked more than three innings since returning from the injured list.

Junis gives the Reds an experienced swingman who could potentially start some games or at least serve as a bulk option behind an opener. His inclusion in the swap also adds something of a financial counterweight; Montas is owed $4.7MM of his $14MM salary still, plus the $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option for next season. Junis is still owed $1.35MM of his $4MM salary plus a $3MM buyout on his $8MM mutual option. (Mutual options, it should be noted, are generally accounting measures and are almost never exercised; it’s been about a decade since the last time a player and team both agreed to exercise a mutual option.)

The Brewers are reportedly still sending about $1MM to the Reds in the deal to offset the gap in the option buyouts. In total, Milwaukee is taking on about $3.35MM in extra expenses in order to facilitate the trade.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Brewers were acquiring Montas. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported Junis and Wiemer were headed back to Cincinnati. Feinsand reported the cash considerations.

11 Long Shot Trade Candidates

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We're less than 24 hours from the deadline. There has been a flurry of activity dating back to Thursday night, taking a few of the top names (e.g Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Carlos Estévez, Isaac Paredes) off the board. We've devoted ample attention to the likes of Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Every deadline features some late surprises. Talks don't always get over the line, but we're likely to hear about discussions on marquee names who are less clear trade candidates than are the good players with limited contractual control on bad teams. None of the following players are likely to be traded. They've probably each got less than a 20% chance of changing uniforms. There's an argument for teams to listen on these players, though they're of varying ability and trade value.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball. If the Tigers trade him, it'd be the biggest transaction of the summer. He's probably the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young award behind a 2.35 earned run average with a 30% strikeout rate over 130 innings. Detroit is three games below .500 and 5.5 out in the Wild Card race. Last night's Carson Kelly trade shows they're willing to move rentals. Needless to say, a Skubal trade would be in another stratosphere of significance.

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Brewers To Place Trevor Megill On 15-Day Injured List

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The Brewers will be placing right-hander Trevor Megill on the 15-day injured list due to a back problem, according to multiple members of the team’s beat (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Acquired in a trade with the Twins in April 2023, Megill is the latest in a string of relievers to hit a new level of performance after coming to Milwaukee.  Megill had a 6.03 ERA over his first 68 2/3 career big league innings with the Cubs and Twins in 2021-22, but with some intriguing secondary metrics that hinted at a higher ceiling, and he delivered on that potential with a 3.63 ERA over 34 2/3 frames with Milwaukee last season.

Megill has been even better in 2024, with a 2.41 ERA and excellent walk (5.9%) and strikeout (29.4%) rates over 33 2/3 innings in the Crew’s bullpen.  While he has allowed a lot of hard contact and has become rather an extreme fly ball pitcher this season, Megill’s 98.8mph fastball has been one of baseball’s more dominant offerings, pairing nicely with his curve to fool batters.

This performance has come in several high-leverage circumstances, as Megill has acted as Milwaukee’s closer (saving 20 of 23 chances) while Devin Williams has missed almost the entire season due to stress fractures in his back.  Williams only made his season debut yesterday, so the Brewers are facing some unfortunate irony in losing Megill to a back problem just as Williams returns.  Bryan Hudson was also just placed on the 15-day IL due to an oblique strain, in another big hit to the relief corps.  Nick Mears was acquired in a trade with the Rockies on Saturday, but with Hudson and now Megill both out, the Brewers could certainly look to further bolster the bullpen prior to tomorrow’s trade deadline.

Brewers Reinstate Devin Williams From 60-Day Injured List

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Devin Williams is finally ready for his 2024 debut, as the Brewers are reinstating the star closer from the 60-day injured list.  Right-hander Janson Junk was designated for assignment to open up a spot for Williams on the 26-man and 40-man rosters.

An MRI during Spring Training revealed that Williams had two stress fractures in his back, and after a long period of recovery, he is set to return to a big league mound.  Williams has logged four minor league rehab outings this month, tossing four scoreless innings during these last tune-ups.  Despite his long layoff, this was apparently all the rehab work Williams and the Brewers felt was necessary, and he figures to see some action in today’s game with the Marlins.

With the trade deadline on Tuesday, Williams’ return counts as an unofficial sort of midseason acquisition for the first-place Brewers.  Even without their All-Star closer available, Milwaukee’s relief corps has still been one of the more effective units in the game, ranking third in bullpen ERA heading into Sunday’s action.  Trevor Megill has posted a 2.41 ERA and 20 saves in Williams’ absence, but he’ll now drop back into a setup role as Williams returns to ninth-inning work.

Bryan Hudson has also been a key piece of the Brewers’ pen, but since he was just sidelined due to an oblique injury, Williams should be a more than suitable replacement.  The Crew also acquired righty Nick Mears from the Rockies in a trade yesterday, further bolstering the relief corps for the stretch drive and (the Brewers hope) into October.

Williams made his MLB debut in 2019, delivering a 3.95 ERA over his first 13 2/3 innings of big league ball.  After that respectable start to his career, the right-hander has been nothing short of tremendous, posting a sterling 1.75 ERA and a stunning 40.5% strikeout rate over 200 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  An 11.7% career walk rate and a lack of premium velocity are issues, but Williams has otherwise been one of the game’s best at inducing soft contact and missing bats.  Initially acting as the Brewers’ setup man behind Josh Hader, Williams has seamlessly transitioned into the closer’s job after Hader was dealt at the 2022 trade deadline.

The Brewers acquired Junk from the Angels as part of the Hunter Renfroe trade in November 2022, and the righty has a 5.87 ERA over 15 1/3 innings and seven overall appearances in a Milwaukee uniform.  He spent almost all of the 2023 season in the minors and has been shuttled back and forth between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville this year.

Working mostly as a starter during his pro career, Junk was deployed primarily as a multi-inning reliever this season.  Though Junk has only a 6.75 ERA in his eight innings of MLB work in 2024, his 2.55 ERA across 35 1/3 innings in Nashville indicates that he may have unlocked something with this semi-permanent move to the bullpen.  This could make him a candidate to be claimed away by a team in need of bullpen innings, but if Junk does clear waivers, he doesn’t have the ability to reject an outright assignment.  It also stands to reason that the Brewers could try and work out a trade involving Junk prior to the July 30 deadline.

Brewers Acquire Nick Mears From Rockies

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The Brewers acquired reliever Nick Mears from the Rockies. Colorado gets right-hander Bradley Blalock and minor league pitcher Yujanyer Herrera in return.

Mears is third among Colorado relievers with 45 1/3 innings. His 5.56 earned run average makes him an odd trade pickup at first glance, but Milwaukee is intrigued by his swing-and-miss ability. Mears has fanned more than 28% of batters faced and gotten whiffs on nearly 12% of his offerings. His fastball averages 96.7 MPH, while opponents have had very little success against his slider. While batters have teed off on his curveball, the fastball-slider combination makes him an interesting upside play.

If not for a .366 average on balls in play against him, Mears’ bottom line numbers would be a lot more impressive. ERA estimators like SIERA (3.37) and FIP (2.59) are a lot more bullish on his performance. While Mears has excellent stuff, his command is questionable. He has walked 10.3% of batters faced this season and an even 13% of opposing hitters in 95 career innings. Throwing strikes consistently is probably his biggest hurdle to assuming a high-leverage role.

Milwaukee placed late-inning southpaw Bryan Hudson on the 15-day injured list this afternoon. He’s dealing with an oblique strain that’ll keep him out for an unknown amount of time. Manager Pat Murphy told reporters that the team would have a clearer picture of Hudson’s timetable after he goes for imaging (X link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The team expects him back this season, but that’s a hit to their relief group in the short term.

Mears slots in alongside Joel Payamps, Trevor Megill, Elvis Peguero and Hoby Milner in the relief corps. The Brewers could welcome star closer Devin Williams back in a few weeks — he’s on a rehab stint with Triple-A Nashville — and should have a fairly strong setup corps. The 27-year-old Mears will qualify for arbitration for the first time next winter and comes with three additional seasons of club control.

Colorado initially grabbed Mears off waivers from the Rangers during the 2022-23 offseason. That proved to be a nice pickup for GM Bill Schmidt and his front office. They’ve cashed him in for a pair of pitchers who could factor into the rotation or long relief roles in the future. Blalock, 23, has a decent chance to pitch at Coors Field this year. He’s already on the 40-man roster and made a brief big league debut last month, tossing a scoreless inning against San Diego.

The 6’2″ righty has otherwise worked out of the rotation for Milwaukee’s Double-A team in Biloxi. He carries a 4.08 ERA in 75 innings spanning 16 starts. His 20.2% strikeout rate is below average, but his 8.5% walk percentage is solid. The Brew Crew acquired Blalock from the Red Sox for Luis Urías last summer. He’s in his first of three option years and could be a back-end starter.

Herrera, a 6’3″ right-hander, ranked 28th among Milwaukee prospects at Baseball America. The outlet credits him with a mid-90s fastball and an above-average slider. A subpar changeup could point to a bullpen future. The 20-year-old Venezuela native has started nine of 16 outings between the two A-ball levels this season. He owns a 2.91 ERA with an above-average 27.2% strikeout percentage and an 8.1% walk rate. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if not added to the 40-man roster. There’s a good chance the Rox select his contract next offseason.

Colorado prioritized starting pitching in their trades last summer. They could do the same this year if they move players like Cal Quantrill, Jalen Beeks, Austin Gomber, Elias Díaz and Jacob Stallings.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the terms of the trade. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/26/24

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The Rays signed their first-rounder to a significant bonus on Friday evening. We’ll round up a few other $2MM+ signings from the day. Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • The Astros have a $3.13MM deal with first-round pick Walker Janek, reports Chandler Rome of the Athletic (X link). That’s slot value for the 28th pick. A Sam Houston State product, Janek was the first catcher selected. Evaluators praise his arm strength and athleticism behind the dish. There’s not much question that he’ll be able to stick at the position. Janek feasted on mid-major pitching with a .364/.476/.709 slash as a junior, but his defense should drive the profile.
  • Reds second-round pick Tyson Lewis received a well overslot $3.0475MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (on X). That was necessary to keep the Nebraska high schooler from attending the University of Arkansas. Evaluators credit the 6’2″ shortstop with plus bat speed and athleticism. Lewis is a longer-term development play who didn’t face great competition in high school. There’s a fair amount of volatility with his hit tool but an intriguing toolset.
  • The Brewers also went above slot on their second-rounder. Milwaukee has a $2.5MM agreement with 57th pick Bryce Meccage, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link). A right-handed prep pitcher from New Jersey, he’s a Virginia commit. Meccage is a 6’4″ hurler who works in the low-mid 90s and shows a pair of promising breaking pitches. Law’s report notes that the young pitcher has subpar command at the moment but enough athleticism to develop in that regard. Meccage is regarded as a potential back-end starter.

Brewers Seeking Left-Handed Bat

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Starting pitching has long been the Brewers’ top priority on the trade market — and likely still is — but in the wake of Christian Yelich’s placement on the injured list with a significant back injury, the team is now also seeking a left-handed bat, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Yelich is attempting non-surgical rehab to get back to the field sooner than later, but he’ll very likely require surgery this offseason as he aims to correct an issue that’s plagued him for some time now.

Milwaukee is hitting .256/.332/.403 against right-handed pitching as a team — good for a 108 wRC+ that ranks ninth among MLB teams. However, Yelich’s return to MVP-caliber form this season has played a substantial role in that production. The 2018 NL MVP and 2019 MVP runner-up carries a .315/.406/.504 batting line on the season. He’s ripped 11 homers and added 21 doubles, three triples and 21 steals (in 22 attempts).

Yelich has tormented both left- and right-handed pitchers, and Milwaukee has several righty bats (e.g. William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, Willy Adames) who’ve been quite productive against righties. The rest of the lineup, however, is lacking in terms of impact left-handed bats. Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick and switch-hitting Blake Perkins (who’s been better as a right-handed hitter) are all lighter-hitting options. Yelich was the team’s primary left-handed power threat, and now it’s both unclear precisely when he’ll return and how effective he’ll be upon activation.

The market generally isn’t steeped in impactful lefties, but there are a few who have floated throughout the rumor mill in recent weeks. Marlins center fielder/second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. is widely expected to be traded prior to Tuesday’s deadline. He’s controlled through the 2026 season. The Rays have been active in selling off some veterans to both clear payroll and make way for younger/more inexpensive contributor and would likely be willing to move Brandon Lowe, who can be a free agent at season’s end but has two club options on his contract. Angels switch-hitting infielder Luis Rengifo is another option and is controlled through 2025. Former Brewer and current Nats outfielder/DH Jesse Winker is enjoying a rebound campaign after a pair of injury-wrecked seasons (one in Milwaukee) and as a rental on a selling club is among the likeliest trade options in the game.

The weekend slate of games will be worth following with a watchful eye. The Giants, for instance, would have several left-handed bats that could hit the market if they fail to make up any ground in the standings (or fall back even further). Michael Conforto is an impending free agent, while Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. are controlled through the 2025 season.

Milwaukee currently has a payroll of about $112MM — a notable drop from last year’s season-end payroll of about $126MM. This month’s acquisition of Aaron Civale already added a bit of money to the books, and gap between the current payroll and last year’s mark should signify that GM Matt Arnold and his team have a bit of financial wiggle room as they look to address multiple needs in the next four-plus days.

Christian Yelich To Attempt Non-Surgical Rehab On Back

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Yesterday, the possibility was raised that Brewers outfielder/designated hitter Christian Yelich could be facing season-ending back surgery. That scenario seems to be off the table at the moment, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting on X that Yelich will attempt rest and rehab for now, but with surgery in the offseason still “a strong possibility.”

The Brewers placed their star and former MVP on the 10-day injured list yesterday with lower back inflammation. It was reported at the time that the 32-year-old would be seeing a spine specialist today with season-ending surgery a possibility, though it seems the specialist gave Yelich some hope of returning this season.

The lower back has been an ongoing problem for Yelich, as he went on the IL due to issues in that part of his body in 2014, 2015, 2021 and now again in 2024. “I’ve dealt with it a lot during my career,” Yelich said yesterday, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “I feel like it’s kind of affected me in a negative way at times. I’ve been able to play at a high level but it’s one of those things that’s held be back a little, so that’s where it’s frustrating. What are you going to do? But also, though, there’s a potential that I can finally get on the other side of this, finally, when all is said and done. We’ll see. It remains to be seen, I guess.”

Based on those words from Yelich, it seems as though there’s some belief that the surgery could put the issue behind him for good. Even if that is the case, it’s understandable why he would try to delay it, at least for a few months. The Brewers are currently 59-43 and have a six-game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. Given the club’s circumstances, it’s understandable that he would want to pursue a chance of coming back for the stretch run and then the playoffs.

Even when not 100% healthy, he’s often the best player on the field when he’s out there. He won National League MVP in 2018 and was roughly as good in 2019. Over those two seasons, he hit 80 home runs and slashed .327/.415/.631 for a wRC+ of 170. He also stole 52 bases and played all three outfield positions. He racked up a massive 14.2 wins above replacement in that two-year stretch, per FanGraphs.

He then had a bit of a dip in 2020 and 2021, hitting .234/.360/.392 in that time for a 106 wRC+, but he’s been on an upward trend since then. His wRC+ jumped to 111 in 2022 and 122 last year, before getting all the way to 155 here in 2024. He’s hit 11 home runs and is drawing walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a .315/.406/.504 batting line. He’s swiped 21 bags as well.

Getting that kind of production back in the lineup later in the year will obviously be a priority for the Brewers. For now, they have an outfield mix consisting of Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins. The designated hitter slot can be shared between Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and others.

Even if he is able to return this year, it’s still possible he’ll have to go under the knife later. Whether that impacts his offseason or his 2025 campaign remains to be seen. His deal with the Brewers runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

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