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Yankees, Rays Set Game 5 Starters

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It will be Gerrit Cole against Tyler Glasnow in tomorrow’s deciding Game 5 of the ALDS matchup between the Yankees and Rays.  New York recorded a 5-1 win in Game 4 tonight to force the winner-take-all contest on Friday at Petco Park (the Rays will be the designated home team).

It isn’t any shock that Cole will get the call for the Yankees’ biggest game of the season.  Signed to a nine-year, $324MM free agent deal last winter, Cole lived up to that ace billing in the regular season and is 2-0 in two playoff starts.  The home run issues that plagued Cole during the season have again been something of an issue in the postseason, as he has surrendered three long balls in 13 innings of 3.46 ERA pitching during these playoffs.

Two of those homers came in Game 1 of the ALDS, though Cole held on for a quality start in allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings of work, while recording eight strikeouts.  Counting the regular season, Game 5 will be the fifth time the Rays have faced Cole in 2020.  It will also mark the first time in Cole’s eight-year career that he has started a game on only three days’ rest, though it’s safe to assume manager Aaron Boone will have his entire cadre of pitchers available should Cole run into any early struggles.

The same tactic will almost surely apply for Glasnow and the Rays, as Glasnow will start on just two days’ rest after pitching five innings in Game 2 (allowing four runs on three hits and three walks, with 10 strikeouts).  Given the even shorter amount of time between games for Glasnow, he might also be a candidate for a quick hook from Rays manager Kevin Cash.  It is also possible Glasnow could be less a proper starter and more of a glorified opener, as Tampa Bay would be pleased to get as many innings as they can from Glasnow before turning things over to their deep bullpen.

East Notes: Arozarena, Eaton, Nationals, Sanchez

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Randy Arozarena, infield prospect?  The current Rays outfielder began his pro career in Cuba’s Serie Nacional as a second baseman during his teenage days, so his defensive future wasn’t exactly settled by the time the Cardinals scouted him as a Mexican League player.  “Some of the question marks at the time were more on profile because he played second base, a tick of third base…and then when we saw him in Mexico when he was eligible to sign he was full-time playing center field and we had great looks there,” Cardinals assistant GM Moises Rodriguez told Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser.  “Profile muddled the evaluation a little bit, but as far as strength and twitch in his swing, that was never in question.”

This offensive potential was enough to merit a $1.25MM bonus for Arozarena as part of the Cardinals’ 2016-17 international signing class, though Arozarena has long since left second base behind, and also left St. Louis last winter.  The Cards dealt Arozarena to Tampa Bay as part of a multi-player trade that seemingly featured Jose Martinez and pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore as the headliners, yet it is Arozarena who has blossomed as a major piece of the 2020 club.  After recovering from a bout of COVID-19 early in the season, Arozarena hit .281/.382/.641 with seven homers over 76 PA in the regular season, and has been even hotter during the Rays’ postseason run.

More from around both the AL and NL East…

  • It seems possible that Adam Eaton has played his last game with the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman writes that “you’d think they might prefer another corner outfielder with more pop than Eaton can provide.”  Beyond just Eaton’s rough .226/.285/.384 slash line over 176 plate appearances in 2020, the Nats also figure to consider glovework and cost in deciding whether or not to bring Eaton back next year, and neither factor is necessarily in the veteran outfielder’s favor.  Eaton’s defensive metrics took a significant step back this season, and exercising his 2021 club option is a $9MM choice for the Nats — Eaton’s option can be picked up for $10.5MM or bought out for $1.5MM.  With a lot of money already committed to the 2021 team and several roster issues in need of being addressed, Washington might prefer to spread that $9MM around to multiple areas, though letting Eaton go would create another need in left field.
  • Third base is another problem spot for the Nationals, as Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington notes.  Carter Kieboom didn’t produce in his rookie year, leaving veterans Asdrubal Cabrera and Josh Harrison having to pick up the slack to mixed results.  It’s obviously too early to give up on Kieboom, so Dybas suggests that the Nats could just sign another veteran on a short-term contract as a depth option if Kieboom again struggles.  Conversely, the Nationals could make a bigger internal move by shifting Luis Garcia to third base, or look outside the current roster for a free agent signing either big (Justin Turner) or more modest (Jake Lamb).
  • Gary Sanchez is “the biggest decision of the Yankees’ offseason,” George A. King III of the New York Post writes.  Sanchez’s disastrous 2020 season has seemingly cost him the starting catcher job, and it remains to be seen if the Bronx Bombers still consider him as a part of their future.  It doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees would simply non-tender Sanchez (owed a raise on his $5MM salary heading into his second arbitration year), yet a trade might not be out of the question.  The Yankees would obviously be trying to shop Sanchez when his trade value is at its lowest, King notes, “yet, there is no guarantee the Yankees will ever be in position to sell high on Sanchez.”  There is also the matter of finding a replacement at catcher — the Yankees are already looking at a second consecutive year with a big luxury tax bill, so splurging on J.T. Realmuto might not be feasible.

Latest On DJ LeMahieu’s Future

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Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu is coming off a batting title-winning regular season that could see him earn some AL MVP votes, but the pending free agent said Thursday that he and the team have not yet discussed a contract extension, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. LeMahieu added that he and the Yankees decided to wait until their season ends on contract talks, and that will be tonight if the team loses Game 4 of the ALDS to the Rays.

Of course, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explained back in March, the Yankees have never been gung-ho on handing out extensions. As such, this is hardly an indicator that they’re ready to move on from LeMahieu, a former Cub and Rockie who has been an incredible find for New York since it signed him to a two-year, $24MM before 2019. Dating back to then, LeMahieu has slashed .336/.386/.536 (146 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 871 plate appearances, all while seeing time at second, third and first.

While LeMahieu’s already 32, his bat and versatility would make him the best free agent available at all infield positions but shortstop, so there’s little doubt he’d cash in on the open market. A deal in the vicinity of the four-year, $92MM pact third baseman Josh Donaldson inked with the Twins last offseason doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility for LeMahieu, whom several other teams could be willing to spend big on if the Yankees don’t re-sign him.

MLBTR Poll: More Likely Comeback, Athletics or Yankees?

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Both American League Division Series move to their fourth games Thursday. That leaves a pair of AL clubs staring down elimination. The West-winning Athletics dropped the first two against the division-rival Astros but survived the first of three potential elimination games yesterday. The Yankees, meanwhile, are on the ropes after dropping two straight in their set with the top-seeded Rays.

Each of the A’s and Yankees will need to win the final two games of their upcoming series to advance to the ALCS. Oakland will turn to Frankie Montas this afternoon, while the Astros will counter with staff ace Zack Greinke. New York is relying on Jordan Montgomery tonight, while Rays’ manager Kevin Cash will open with Ryan Thompson, presumably before turning to Ryan Yarbrough.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Can the Yankees’ high-powered offense overcome the Rays’ stellar pitching staff? Will the A’s star-studded bullpen right the ship and keep the Astros’ scorching lineup in check? Which team is more likely to dig themselves out of their current hole?

(poll link for app users)

Which Team Is More Likely To Win Their ALDS?
Yankees 58.49% (3,471 votes)
Athletics 41.51% (2,463 votes)
Total Votes: 5,934

 

Yankees Notes: Sanchez, Montgomery

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Currently tied at one win apiece, the Yankees and Rays will meet for Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday. New York won’t have Gary Sanchez behind the plate, as it benched him in favor of Kyle Higashioka after an 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance in Game 2, Marly Rivera of ESPN was among those to report. And it doesn’t appear Sanchez will have a stranglehold on the position going forward. Rather, manager Aaron Boone said the situation’s “day to day.”

This is the second time in the series the Yankees have sat Sanchez in favor of the typically light-hitting Higashioka, who has taken over as ace and Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole’s personal catcher. The Yankees are slated to pitch Masahiro Tanaka on Wednesday, but Higashioka will nonetheless don the tools of ignorance.

Considering the torrid pace he was on earlier in his career, which started in earnest in 2016, it’s a surprise Sanchez is no longer the Yankees’ easy choice at catcher. He was an excellent hitter through 2017, but his numbers declined significantly the next year before a bounce-back 2019 effort. However, the 27-year-old could only manage a .147/.253/.365 line with 10 home runs in 178 plate appearances during the 2020 regular season. Behind the plate, Sanchez threw out a league-average 26 percent of would-be base stealers but only finished in the 39th percentile in the framing category, per Statcast, and he led the AL in passed balls for the third time in four years.

Regardless of how this season ends for the World Series hopeful Yankees, it’ll be interesting to see whether they continue to place their faith in Sanchez, who has two years of arbitration eligibility left. The lone slam dunk improvement over Sanchez on the free-agent market will be the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto, who should easily exceed $100MM on his contract. The Yankees do have the financial might to sign him if they’re dissatisfied with Sanchez, though.

For now, it remains to be seen whether Sanchez will start again in this series, but if he’s back in the lineup in Game 4, he’ll work with left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Boone said Montgomery, who had a rough time keeping runs off the board in the regular season, will take the ball in that contest, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic relays.

MLB Reinstates Domingo German

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Major League Baseball has reinstated Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German from the restricted list, the team announced. German is on the Yankees 40-man roster, but no changes were needed to accommodate the move. He is not eligible for postseason play, so as has been stated previously, he will not appear in the majors this season.

German served an 81-game suspension this season after violating the league’s domestic violence policy. Prior to the suspension, German had made himself into a key cog of the Yankees’ 2019 rotation by posting a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings. German could again play himself into competition for a rotation spot in 2021. He turns 29-years-old in August of next season.

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole stationed atop their next year’s rotation, but both James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are scheduled to be free agents, while J.A. Happ has a $17MM mutual option. Deivi Garcia is set to take over one rotation spot, they’ll hope to get Luis Severino back to fill another, and Jordan Montgomery should warrant consideration as well. All that said, the Yankees know better than most about the importance of rotation depth.

Yankees Name Deivi Garcia Game Two Starter

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21-year-old Deivi Garcia will get the nod in game two of the ALCS on Tuesday night, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and others (via Twitter). Amazingly, Garcia will be the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game in Yankees’ postseason history and the 5th-youngest in AL postseason history, per ESPN’s Marly Rivera and ESPN Stats Info (via Twitter).

It’s a bold stroke for manager Aaron Boone. Garcia made just 6 starts during the regular season in his first taste of big league action. Garcia held his own, going 3-2 with a 4.98 ERA/4.15 FIP and 8.7 K/9 to 1.6 BB/9. His command was particularly impressive, never having limited free passes at such a stringent rate at any point in his minor league career when it’s typical for young players to struggle more with their command upon promotion to the bigs. Garcia’s 5’9″ stature and electric stuff has drawn comparisons to Pedro Martinez early in his career, and while that’s quite a lofty comparison at this stage, he certainly looks more and more like a player with cult potential in New York.

Over the small sample of major league innings we’ve seen thus far, Garcia averages a 91.9 mph four-seamer that serves as the bedrock offering in his arsenal, throwing it about 60% of the time, often up. The Dominican righty utilizes a 80.6 mph change-up away against lefties while mixing in a breaking ball about 12.5% of the time. Against right-handed batters, he goes to a slider/curveball combo more frequently, giving equal love to the slider and curve for a total usage rate of about 33%. He was the Yankees #1 prospect coming into the season.

It will be interesting to see how Boone chooses to manage Garcia. He could easily plan to pull the rookie after one or (likely at-most) two turns through the Rays lineup, though he’ll be helped by the fact that Rays hitters have not seen him in-game before. Boone has a number of long relievers he can call on to piggyback with Garcia if he so chooses. Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery, Nick Nelson, and Michael King all have experience starting in the minor leagues. Montgomery might be the most-likely go-to, both because of his relatively strong season (3.87 FIP across 10 starts, 44 innings), but also because the southpaw might see platoon advantages, depending on how long Garcia goes and how aggressive the Rays are with their substitutions. The Rays tend to be fairly aggressive with pinch-hitters, even early in games, so platoon advantage alone likely won’t dictate much of the Yankees’ thinking early in the contest.

Masahiro Tanaka, then, will get the start in game three. The veteran weathered a tough outing in game two against Cleveland in the Wild Card round. Tanaka survived just four innings, walking three, yielding 5 hits, and 6 earned runs. The Yankees, of course, ultimately rallied to win the game and seal the series. Tanaka threw 77 pitches, and given the 6 full days he’ll have off between starts, he should be more than ready for Wednesday’s game three.

Yankees Announce ALDS Roster

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The Yankees have set their 28-man roster for this week’s ALDS matchup against the divison-winning Rays. Here’s how it all breaks down:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

New York makes just one change relative to their first-round roster. With the series length expanding from three to a potential five games, the Yankees added King as a multi-inning relief option for manager Aaron Boone.

In his place, catcher Erik Kratz was removed from the active roster. The veteran backstop will head to the alternate player pool, which also includes Miguel Andújar, Rob Brantly, Ryan Buchter, Matt Duffy, Thairo Estrada, Brooks Kriske, Tyler Lyons, Jordy Mercer, James Paxton (out with a flexor strain), Clarke Schmidt and Miguel Yajure.

MLBTR Poll: Rays Or Yankees?

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The top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays are set to “host” division rival New York Yankees in a playoff-bubble, 5-game, 5-day ALDS contest beginning on Monday night. Without days off, this series will function differently from divisional rounds of years past. The Rays and Yankees will both need to rely on their pitching depth to get through this series, starting with a barnburner in game one as Blake Snell takes on Gerrit Cole.

The Rays are famous for relying on organizational depth, but throughout the course of the regular season they have the luxury of the railway between Triple-A and the big leagues to replenish the bullpen and keep fresh arms rotating into games. The Rays should still have plenty of depth to survive the five-game series if all goes according to plan, given 28-man rosters.

Still, expect to see a lot of different Rays’ arms cycling through games. Tampa starters went less than five innings per start during the regular season, and that’s true for their top trio as well as the rest of the staff. Tyler Glasnow will take the hill in game two, with Charlie Morton getting the start in game three, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter links). Glasnow, Morton, and Snell combined for an average of 4 2/3 innings per start during the regular season, and that’s not likely to change much during the playoffs, where each pitch registers as high-impact and stress levels reach season-highs.

In the bullpen, both the Rays and Yankees are used to relying on a number of different arms for high-leverage innings. That will be important if the series goes the distance. Yankees’ closer Aroldis Chapman probably carries the single biggest individual burden, but Zack Britton can expect at least equal usage coming out of the pen for stress outs in the middle-to-late innings. As they have all season, the Rays will go with a bullpen-by-committee approach, leaning heavily on the quartet of Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and John Curtiss late in games.

On the offensive end, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris points out that the Rays strike out a lot and don’t homer very much, which isn’t a typically strong recipe for October. On the other hand, in a conversation with Lindsey Adler, he writes: “But what teams are we talking about? The Rays ran out 60 different lineups in 60 games! They called up Randy Arozarena and sent everyone running in September, and seemed like a different team.”

The Yankees, of course, have the advantage of Cole going in game one, who has a history of strong postseason starts. He’s also as close to a guarantee as there is in the game right now to provide length. That should get the Yankees off on the right foot. Plus, he’ll be backed by a potent offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weak spots. Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Giancarlo Stanton, even Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner have proven their potency in the postseason. It’s a scary lineup, any way you slice it.

Still, the Rays have the best record in the American League, an 8-2 record against the Yankees, and a chip on their shoulder. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides this quote from Kevin Kiermaier, “We’re a small-market team with a low payroll, not a whole lot of household names, but with a lot of very good, above-average, quality major-league baseball players. One through 28, or however many roster spots we’re allowed, we know we can play with anyone. We know we can beat anyone.”

The Rays 3.56 team ERA was 2nd-best in the American League, where the Yankees finished 8th. By FIP the gap closes a bit with the Rays finishing 3rd and the Yankees 7th. The Yankees led the Rays by just 0.4 offensive fWAR, though their 116 wRC+ as a team was the best mark in the American League. The Rays are no slouches in that department either, finishing fourth at 109 wRC+.

Austin Meadows has been a big part of that offense for Tampa Bay – at least in theory – and he’s working his way back to full health, per Toribio (via Twitter). Meadows might have the highest ceiling offensively in the Rays lineup, but it’s been a tough year for the outfielder, who managed just 36 games with a .205/.296/.371 line. He did not appear in their 2-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Without him, the Rays still have plenty of options, especially given the defensive prowess of Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, as well as the emergence of Arozarena, who could also continue to see time as the designated hitter.

As for the Yankees, they’ll be reliant as ever on an otherwordly offense that just continues to produce in key spots. Not even mentioned in their ridiculous collection of offensive talent above, DJ LeMahieu leads the way after winning the batting title in the America League. On the mound, Cole gives them a big-time punch in game one, but that could be his only appearance of the series. To pitch again, he’d have to come back on short rest in a potential game five. If the Yanks lose game one, it will certainly be interesting to see at what level of urgency they come to the park for game two. Masahiro Tanaka and J.A Happ are likely to follow Cole in the rotation, though manager Aaron Boone hasn’t officially set the rotation yet. High-profile rookie Deivi Garcia could get the ball in a potential game four.

All of which is to say: who knows? This is perhaps the preeminent series of the divisional round, which is saying a lot considering we have four divisional match-ups ahead. What say you? Who is going to come out on top to face the winner of the Astros and Athletics on the other side of the bracket? Save your personal preferences for the comments – I want to know who will win this series.

(Poll link for app users)

ALDS: Rays Or Yankees?
Rays in 5 29.88% (2,808 votes)
Rays in 4 25.87% (2,431 votes)
Yankees in 4 19.56% (1,838 votes)
Yankees in 5 19.55% (1,837 votes)
Rays in 3 2.63% (247 votes)
Yankees in 3 2.51% (236 votes)
Total Votes: 9,397

Francisco Cervelli Announces Retirement

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Longtime MLB catcher Francisco Cervelli announced his retirement in an Instagram post today (h/t to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Daniel Álvarez Montes of Elextrabase (Twitter link) was first with the news of Cervelli’s forthcoming announcement.

Signed by the Yankees as an international amateur from Venezuela in 2003, Cervelli broke into the big leagues as a September call-up five years later. He would go on to see big league action for New York every year from 2008-14 but only eclipsed 200 plate appearances in a season once. Following a 2014 trade to the Pirates for reliever Justin Wilson, Cervelli finally got an opportunity as a team’s #1 catcher. He made the most of it. In 2015, Cervelli hit .295/.370/.401 (117 wRC+) in 510 plate appearances while rating as one of the league’s premier receiving catchers.

Unfortunately, a worrisome series of concussions kept Cervelli from matching that lofty workload in the following seasons. Nevertheless, he generally continued to produce when healthy over the rest of his five-year Pittsburgh tenure. A miserable 2019 season eventually led to Cervelli’s release from Pittsburgh, although he did latch on with the Braves for their playoff run last season.

Cervelli signed a one-year deal with the Marlins last offseason and was thrust into the lineup when presumptive starter Jorge Alfaro went on the injured list. Even at age 34, he acquitted himself well, hitting .245/.355/.453 in 16 games. Unfortunately, another concussion (at least the seventh of his career) sent him back to the injured list in August. It soon became apparent he wouldn’t factor into the Marlins’ playoff push. Miami had already placed Cervelli on the 60-day IL, so today’s news won’t affect their roster status in advance of next week’s NL Division Series with the Braves.

This surely isn’t the way Cervelli would’ve wanted his career to end, but he noted in his announcement that “for the first time in a long time, I know my health and wellness needs to be the leadoff.” Despite his various injuries, Cervelli ultimately compiled a 13-year MLB career. He hit .268/.358/.382 with 41 home runs over 2618 plate appearances, a bit better than the league average hitter overall. Baseball Reference estimates he was worth approximately 14 wins above replacement, while FanGraphs pegs his career as worth 18 WAR. MLBTR wishes Cervelli the best in retirement.

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