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Mark Shapiro Discusses Blue Jays’ Financial Situation

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Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro discussed his organization’s financial situation in a chat with MLB.com’s Gregor Chisolm (links to Twitter). The veteran baseball executive commented upon a few matters of both near and long-term interest.

Most immediately, Shapiro made clear that the Jays haven’t tapped into all of their available 2019 payroll. Per Shapiro, “It’s just a question of where and when do these opportunities present themselves and, if we do bring in veteran players, how [sic] is that offset our ability to continue to foster and develop the younger core talent on the team?” It would be a bit of a surprise to see the Toronto organization make any significant expenditures the rest of the winter, given that the team has largely eschewed financial commitments this offseason, though it’s interesting to see an acknowledgement that there’s more funding available.

Broadly, the organization is preparing for a point — not too far in the future, it surely hopes — when it makes sense to ramp up spending. Per Shapiro, “there is a multi-year plan in place” regarding spending, with “an understanding of where we are now and an understanding of where we’re going to go” once the club is back “at the brink of contention.”

When and how that build-up will occur isn’t clear. But there should be ample room to work with when the time comes. The Jays opened each of the prior two campaigns with over $160MM in payroll commitments. The club sits in the $115MM range at present for 2019, with just over $30MM in total commitments past that point on its books.

There’ll be a time, Shapiro says, when “payroll will outpace our revenues.” The baseball operations department doesn’t need to stash cash now to make that possible, though. Shapiro says the organization doesn’t plot out specific future payroll levels and allow its ops unit to save funding space for the future. Rather, there’s “a mutual and common understanding of what the general plan looks like.”

Shapiro also discussed the revenue side. After generally defending the television rights-fee agreement between the Blue Jays and Sportsnet (also owned by Rogers Communications) and noting some differences between the Canadian and American TV markets, Shapiro said the bottom line is that there’s ample money to be made selling baseball in Toronto. “I don’t think there is any excuse or reason why we shouldn’t have among the best revenues when we’re the team that we need to be,” he said. “That’s already been demonstrated materially in the last few years.”

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Suffers Oblique Strain

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Prized Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has suffered a Grade 1 left oblique strain, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. The team estimates Guerrero will need three weeks to recover, Davidi adds.

The injury to Guerrero officially takes him out of the running to open the season in Toronto, though he wouldn’t have stood much chance to crack its roster even if he remained healthy. Not only will the Blue Jays gain an extra season of control over Guerrero by keeping the 19-year-old in the minors until mid-April, but general manager Ross Atkins indicated last month that the big-bodied third baseman’s not yet suited for a major league promotion. Since then, Guerrero has batted a meager .211/.250/.316 in 19 spring at-bats.

Despite his struggles over a small sample of exhibition plate appearances, Guerrero’s an all-world hitter who’s widely regarded as the game’s best prospect. As such, few took Atkins’ comments at face value, instead believing Toronto would demote him to manipulate the player’s service time. It’s now a moot point in light of the injury, though, as Davidi notes Guerrero would have been ticketed for a season-opening rehab assignment anyway. The hope now is that the injury won’t linger beyond the team’s estimated timeline, as is often the case with oblique issues.

Regardless of whether Guerrero’s back within the three-week window, he’ll see more time at Triple-A Buffalo before earning his first call-up to the majors this season. Guerrero garnered his first Triple-A experience late last year and slashed a phenomenal .336/.414/.564 (175 wRC+) with six home runs and more walks (15) than strikeouts (10) over 128 PAs, further cementing himself as an elite young player.

Orioles Acquire Dwight Smith, Designate Josh Osich

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The Orioles have acquired outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. from the Blue Jays, the Baltimore organization announced. International pool money will go to Toronto in return, with Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports tweeting the Jays will pick up half a million dollars in spending capacity. The O’s designated lefty Josh Osich to open a 40-man roster spot.

With the move, the O’s add an optionable 26-year-old player who has hit well in 104 MLB plate appearances. He owns a solid (albeit modest) .271/.354/.401 batting line in his 810 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors. A left-handed hitting outfielder who can at least serve as a reserve in center.

It seems the Baltimore org had some competition for Smith, who was recently designated for assignment. The cost is relatively stout for an acquisition of a player out of DFA limbo. $500K in international spending availability is nothing to sneeze at in a world where hard caps tamp down the overall outlay. In this case, the O’s likely did not feel they had terribly productive places to invest their leftover funds, which were accumulated in an ultimately unsuccessful pursuit of top young international free agents Victor Victor Mesa and Sandy Gaston.

As for Osich, he’s the second southpaw removed from the Baltimore 40-man in recent days. The club lost Donnie Hart on waivers; it remains to be seen whether Osich will pass through. Now 30 years of age, Osich is looking to regain his form after a series of rough campaigns. He owns a 5.01 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 4.6 K/9, and a 51.8% groundball rate in 120 1/3 career innings in the majors.

Blue Jays Designate Dwight Smith Jr., Announce Buchholz Signing

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The Blue Jays have announced a pair of corresponding transactions. Outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. was designated for assignment in order to clear roster space for righty Clay Buchholz, whose previously reported deal is now official.

Smith, 26, has spent most of the past two seasons at Triple-A, where he carries a .271/.354/.401 slash with 14 home runs over 810 plate appearances. Notably, the left-handed-hitter has shown good plate discipline, with a combination of 91 walks and 124 strikeouts at the highest level of the minors.

It’s hardly a world-beating profile for a player who has mostly lined up in left field. But Smith has performed well in his limited opportunities at the game’s highest level, even if it’s hard to glean much from 104 plate appearances. And he has logged significant innings at the other two outfield spots, increasing his viability as a big-league bench option. With an option season still remaining, perhaps another organization will see cause to work out a trade or put in a claim.

Blue Jays Notes: Top FAs, Stroman, Travis

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The latest on the Blue Jays, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet:

  • The Blue Jays “checked in” on prominent Scott Boras clients Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez in free agency, but talks didn’t get serious in any of the three cases, Nicholson-Smith reports. Regarding Harper, there were “not a lot of conversations” on the Jays’ side, a source told Nicholson-Smith. “Some, but not a lot.” Toronto was never strongly connected to Harper during his drawn-out trip to free agency, which finally ended this week when he accepted the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer. The 31-year-old Keuchel’s still available, meanwhile, though it doesn’t seem the Jays – who aren’t expected to contend in 2019 – are in position to sign a 30-something pitcher to a lucrative contract.
  • While right-hander Marcus Stroman has frequented trade rumors in recent months, Nicholson-Smith suggests nobody has approached Toronto’s asking price yet. For now, “trade talks are relatively quiet,” Nicholson-Smith writes, though he notes that could change if a starter-needy team loses out on Keuchel and pivots to Stroman as a Plan B. Stroman, who’s in his second-last year of team control, made headlines last month when he expressed frustration toward the Blue Jays for neither extending his contract nor being more active in free agency (they’ve since agreed to deals with fellow righties Clay Buchholz and Bud Norris, which could assuage Stroman to some degree). Whether he opens 2019 with Toronto or another club, Stroman will attempt to bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor 2018 season, during which he notched a 5.54 ERA with 6.77 K/9 and 3.17 BB/9 over 102 1/3 innings.
  • Oft-injured second baseman Devon Travis will sit out at least the next few days because of left knee inflammation, Nicholson-Smith relays. Manager Charlie Montoyo isn’t exactly pushing the panic button over the issue, but it nonetheless continues a discouraging run of lower-body issues in recent years for Travis, who’s coming off a disastrous campaign in which he slashed .232/.275/.381 and recorded minus-0.5 fWAR in 378 plate appearances. Should Travis begin 2019 on the injured list, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would likely assume the reins at second, leaving a utility infield spot for Eric Sogard or Richard Urena, per Nicholson-Smith.

Blue Jays To Sign Clay Buchholz

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Mar. 2: Sportsnet Canada’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Buchholz’s deal will be of the MLB variety when complete.

Feb. 28: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Buchholz deal, if finalized, would pay him “about” $3MM and contain another $3MM worth of incentives. Notably, the agreement is still pending a physical.

Feb. 28: The Blue Jays are set to sign right-hander Clay Buchholz, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The ISE Baseball client will be the second pickup of the past couple hours for Toronto, as the Jays quite recently agreed to terms with righty Bud Norris on a minor league pact as well.

Clay Buchholz | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Buchholz, 34, opened the 2018 season with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate, and Kansas City’s decision to cut him loose on May 1 proved to be a substantial misstep. The longtime Red Sox hurler caught on with the Diamondbacks, where he was a familiar face for GM Mike Hazen and several Arizona staffers who cut their teeth in the Boston organization. The Royals’ loss was the D-backs’ gain, as Buchholz turned in a masterful 2.01 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent grounder rate in 98 1/3 innings out of the Arizona rotation.

To be fair, Buchholz benefited from an unsustainable 86.6 percent strand rate and also had good fortune on balls in play (.255 BABIP), but virtually any metric pegged him as a resurgent, MLB-caliber rotation piece in his time with the Snakes (3.47 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.08 SIERA). The veteran hurler looked to be well on his way to positioning himself as a solid candidate for a big league deal this winter, but as has happened to Buchholz on so many occasions in the past, his arm didn’t hold up through season’s end. The Diamondbacks announced in mid-September that a flexor mass strain in Buchholz’s right arm had preemptively ended his season.

Following that injury, it was a quiet offseason for Buchholz. Though he said at the time of the injury that he expected to be ready to pitch in Spring Training, there’s been nary a word on the status of his recovery from that injury. Presumably, the Jays will have an update on Buchholz’s health if and when the reported agreement between the two sides is formally announced by the team. At this juncture of the offseason, a minor league pact seems likely, though one could certainly argue that Buchholz’s 2018 performance merits a guaranteed spot on the 40-man roster.

Buchholz will give the Jays some rotation depth, adding to a group that already features Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki, Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard. It’s not clear right now whose spot Buchholz would be overtaking were he to crack the Opening Day rotation, though Sanchez and Stroman are locks to occupy spots, health permitting, and Shoemaker seems likely to do so as well.

Blue Jays To Sign Bud Norris

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TODAY: The deal is now official, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  The contract contains an opt-out clause for Norris on March 21.

THURSDAY, 5:45pm: Norris would earn $3MM upon making the roster and can pick up another $1.25MM via incentives, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link).

4:35pm: It’s a minor league deal for Norris, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (Twitter link).

4:22pm: The Blue Jays have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent right-hander Bud Norris, reports Craig Mish of SiriusXM (via Twitter). Norris is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Bud Norris | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Norris, who’ll turn 34 over the weekend, turned in a solid season with the Cardinals in 2018, working primarily as the closer in St. Louis. Over the life of 57 2/3 innings, the righty turned in a 3.59 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.99), xFIP (3.65) and SIERA (3.30) all felt that he was a generally solid bullpen piece with an ERA that was largely reflective of his overall performance.

Norris enjoyed a second consecutive season with a swinging-strike rate of 12 percent or better — the first two such campaigns of his career — and he induced swings at pitches outside the strike zone at a career-best 35.9 percent clip, as well. That mark tied him for 18th among 151 qualified relievers, while Norris registered a career-high 94.6 mph average fastball.

Looking back to Norris’ 2017 campaign, his results in terms of fielding-independent metrics, strikeout rate, ground-ball rate and swinging-strike rate were nearly identical to the marks he posted in 2018. Over those two seasons, he’s combined for 47 saves between the Angels and Cardinals. However, despite the resurgence he’s enjoyed as a reliever, the veteran nonetheless had to settle for a non-guaranteed pact. He’s far from the only veteran who’s had to do so this offseason on the heels of a solid campaign, but it still looks to be a quality low-risk pickup for a Blue Jays club that has ample room to add a veteran arm to its relief corps.

General manager Ross Atkins said early in February that his club’s focus from that point forth would be on pitching acquisitions, and Norris stands out as one of the clear best arms remaining on the relief market. He’ll slot into a late-inning mix that features Ken Giles and Ryan Tepera, with other relief options like David Paulino, Joe Biagini, fellow non-roster invitee John Axford and Rule 5 pick Elvis Luciano all vying for jobs in rookie manager Charlie Montoyo’s bulllpen.

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

Adam Warren Weighing Multiple Offers; Blue Jays Among Interested Teams

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The Blue Jays are showing interest in several veteran relievers, including right-hander Adam Warren, per Robert Murray and Emily Waldon of The Athletic (Twitter link). Waldon tweets that Warren currently has offers from multiple teams in hand and is weighing his options.

Warren, 31, hasn’t been connected to many clubs this winter. It surely doesn’t help the righty that he missed time early in the season due to a back strain and then struggled following a trade from the Yankees to the Mariners. Warren posted a respectable 3.74 ERA in 21 2/3 frames with Seattle but saw his strikeout rate plummet from nearly 29 percent to to just 15.8 percent after changing teams. Warren’s average fastball dipped from 93 mph in 2017 to 91.9 mph in 2018, though he gained some velocity as the season wore on, and it’s possible that the early back troubles hindered his velocity to an extent.

Still, the sum of Warren’s efforts between the two clubs last year resulted in a 3.14 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9 and a 37.6 percent ground-ball rate in 51 2/3 innings. His 10.4 percent swinging-strike rate and 31.5 percent opponents’ chase rate were actually the best marks he’d turned in since 2014. Warren benefited from a sky-high 84.4 percent strand rate that he’s quite unlikely to replicate, but fielding-independent metrics such as FIP (3.94) and SIERA (3.84) still felt he was a solid, if unspectacular bullpen piece. He also has a history as a multi-inning reliever and has worked as a starter in the past, which one would think is all the more appealing to clubs around the league.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said early this month that the “bulk” of the team’s focus between then and Opening Day would be on pitching additions. It’s not clear whether Warren is weighing multiple MLB or minor league offers, though Atkins noted at the time of his comment that he wasn’t ruling out adding another player on a big league deal.

Quick Hits: Owens, Stroman, Wright, Beckham, Rookie

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Athletics assistant GM/director of player personnel Billy Owens has been rumored as “a strong candidate” to become the next Giants general manager, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  Farhan Zaidi, the Giants’ newly-hired president of baseball operations, knows Owens well from their time together in Oakland’s front office, and Zaidi is one of several voices in Slusser’s piece who praise Owens’ ability to scout and identify talent (not to mention describe that talent in legendarily elaborate scouting reports).  If there is one flaw in Owens’ resume, it could be his love of scouting prevents him from amassing the type of executive experience necessary to run a front office.  That said, Owens has been sought after by other organizations, and he interviewed for the Phillies’ GM job in 2015, leading to speculation that he could eventually leave Oakland for a higher-profile job — perhaps even reuniting with Zaidi in the Bay Area.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Marcus Stroman’s blunt comments about the Blue Jays’ offseason seem to hint at an eventual parting of the ways between the team and the right-hander, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi opines.  Stroman’s frankness probably didn’t help his chances at either a contract extension or a trade, though if he has a good first half and erases any question marks lingering from his mediocre 2018 season, Stroman will surely become an intriguing trade chip for the Jays at the deadline.
  • The Red Sox plan to use Steven Wright as a full-time reliever this season, MLB.com’s Ian Browne writes, with manager Alex Cora casting Wright as a potential multi-inning threat.  At first glance, a knuckleballer would seem like an unusually durable option to relegate to the bullpen, though Wright is just happy to be pitching in any capacity after two injury-plagued seasons.  There is also the possibility for higher-profile assignments within Boston’s pen, given the team’s lack of an established closer.
  • Gordon Beckham chose to sign the Tigers over some offers from other teams because they offered the best shot at regular Major League at-bats, the veteran infielder told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News and other reporters.  The idea of more time in the minors isn’t appealing to Beckham, to the point that “if it doesn’t work out here, I might be done” with his ten-year MLB career, though he also noted that better health and a revamped swing have him feeling optimistic about the coming season.
  • Right-hander Rookie Davis is close to a new minor league contract and Spring Training invite with an unknown team, The Athletic’s Emily Waldon reports (Twitter link), adding that the Pirates have been in touch with Davis.  Perhaps best known as one of the prospects sent by the Yankees to the Reds as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade in December 2015, Davis tossed 27 innings for Cincinnati in 2017 and then underwent hip surgery that October.  He pitched only 26 1/3 innings in the Reds’ farm system last season and became a free agent in November.
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