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Zack Wheeler Rumors: Yankees, Braves, Brewers

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Trades between the Yankees and Mets have been rare during the crosstown rivals’ histories. The clubs have made just 15 deals since 1966, in fact, but we might see No. 16 this summer. With the starter-needy Yankees pushing for a World Series and the Mets looking like non-contenders, the New York franchises could come together on a trade for soon-to-be free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler this month. The Yankees are already known to like Wheeler, and the Mets wouldn’t be averse to sending him to the Bronx, Andy Martino of SNY.tv says.

The Mets are more focused on getting the best offer for Wheeler than where they’d trade him. But the Yankees are sure to face plenty of competition for Wheeler if they do make an earnest attempt to pull him in before the July 31 deadline. Martino names Atlanta and Milwaukee as just a couple other teams with interest in the 29-year-old. The Brewers were “enamored” of Wheeler’s upside as recently as last offseason, per Marc Carig of The Athletic (subscription link).

The heat-throwing Wheeler put on a show for an array of scouts Tuesday when he handled, of all teams, the Yankees. Wheeler fanned eight over 6 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits and a walk. He’s still running an uninspiring 4.42 ERA through 114 frames this season, up significantly from last year’s 3.31. It hasn’t helped that Wheeler has pitched in front of a dreadful defense, though, and the rest of his output is far more promising than his simple run prevention numbers. Wheeler has struck out 9.71 batters per nine while walking 2.53, giving him an outstanding 3.71 K/BB ratio. He’s also inducing grounders at a 45.3 percent clip and infield flies 14 percent of the time – the latter of which ranks 13th among qualified starters.

Adding to Wheeler’s appeal, he’s on a $5.975MM salary that every contender should be able to afford. It appears he’ll join Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner as one of the top two rental starters available in July, barring a miraculous Mets turnaround. The Mets have won two in a row, though they’re still just 39-47 and six games out in a jam-packed National League playoff race. Assuming New York elects to sell, dealing Wheeler would give the team a chance to replenish its lackluster farm system to at least some degree. The Mets just may be able to do that at the Yankees’ expense.

Notable International Signings: 7/2/19

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The 2019-20 July 2nd international signing period is officially underway, though it’s not exactly laden with suspense. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.

Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Throughout, we’ll be citing to the reporting of Baseball America (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) along with analysis from Fangraphs. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Here are a few key deals:

  • Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: Everyone’s top target is reportedly holding strong on his commitment to go to the Bronx. The deal is said to be for $5.1MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, with an announcement expected this evening. Dominguez is a switch-hitter who’s said to possess five-tool ability. The Fangraphs team is sufficiently impressed to run him all the way up to the #61 overall MLB prospect ranking right out of the gates (via Kiley McDaniel, on Twitter). The Yanks also have struck a $1.2MM deal with outfielder Jhon Diaz, Sanchez tweets. He was the 18th-rated player on the MLB.com board but ran all the way up to #7 at Fangraphs.
  • Robert Puason, SS, Athletics: Another player who’ll command about $5MM, Puason is a toolsy shortstop with big upside. He was said to have a deal in place with the Braves before that team was slapped with international sanctions. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta organization wasn’t actually punished for agreeing to terms early (though that widespread practice is officially forbidden) but rather for structuring a group deal with Puason’s trainer, as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains on Twitter.
  • Luis Rodriguez, OF, Dodgers: The value on this one is unknown, but BA’s Ben Badler has photographic evidence of the signing (Twitter link). Rodriguez gets top-three billing from Fangraphs. The Los Angeles club is also in agreement with righty Kristian Cardozo, who’s also considered one of the thirty best players available.
  • Bayron Lora, OF, Rangers: Baseball America has made this connection for some time; Sanchez tweets that it’s a $4.2MM deal for the slugging prospect. Shortstops Maximo Acosta and Zion Banister are also members of the Texas signing class. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) has the former at $1.6MM and the latter at $835K. As he notes, the Texas organization will need to acquire some added pool capacity to make the math work.
  • Erick Pena, OF, Royals: This is another signing called in advance by the BA crew. Sanchez has the bonus at $3.8MM (Twitter link). FG labels Pena “a well-rounded outfielder with considerable physical projection.”
  • Ronnier Quintero, C, Cubs: Occupying the #6 spot on the boards of both Fangraphs and MLB.com, Quintero will follow Willson Contreras from Venezuela to the Chicago organization. The Cubbies also have a deal with fellow top-ten-ish prospect Kevin Made, a shortstop. Sanchez puts the Quintero deal at $3MM and Made’s mark at $1.7MM. Another Venezuelan backstop, Brayan Altuve, will cost the Cubs another million bucks, seemingly setting up the organization for a search for some added pool money.
  • Roberto Campos, OF, Tigers: The Detroit organization popped for a hefty $3MM to secure the services of the Cuban outfielder, per Badler (via Twitter). Campos defected in somewhat dramatic fashion several years ago at just 13 years of age. He wasn’t listed among the best prospects, but Chris McCosky of the Detroit News indicates on Twitter that the Tigers like his bat quite a bit.

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, per Sanchez and/or Badler:

  • Twins, $2.7MM, outfielder Enmanuel Rodriguez
  • Angels, $2.2MM, shortstop Arol Vera
  • Marlins, $2.8MM, shortstop Jose Salas
  • Mets, $2.05MM, outfielder Alexander Ramirez
  • Padres, $2MM,  outfielder Ismael Mena
  • Astros, $2MM, shortstop Dauris Lorenzo

Ender Inciarte Begins Rehab Assignment

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Injured Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte is officially on the path back to the majors. He launched a rehab assignment today, per a club announcement.

Inciarte will start things off with the club’s High-A affiliate. The Braves will surely exercise some caution in ramping him up. Back injuries can linger, as has already occurred in this particular case.

So long as Inciarte’s back doesn’t start barking again, he ought to move fairly swiftly back up the chain. The Braves ought to have at least a few weeks to see how Inciarte looks and fits on the MLB roster before making final deadline decisions.

As I argued about a month back, the left-handed-hitting center fielder still figures to be a useful piece for the Atlanta roster now and into the future. It’s hard to see Inciarte re-taking his everyday role, but he’d still fill a significant niche if he can get the bat going upon his return.

That said, his ultimately activation will still pose tough roster and playing-time questions. Austin Riley is still slugging, though his on-base numbers are sagging, while reserves Johan Camargo, Charlie Culberson, and Matt Joyce are all hitting quite well. It’s a good problem to have for the division-leading Braves.

Braves Place Anthony Swarzak On Injured List, Recall Chad Sobotka

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The Braves have placed right-handed pitcher Anthony Swarzak on the 10-day injured list and have recalled Chad Sobotka to take his spot on the active roster, according to Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Swarzak is dealing with right shoulder inflammation.

It’s a dose of frustrating news for the Braves, who have largely had to scrap together a bullpen of misfits, outcasts, and converted starters. Among that group, though, Swarzak has emerged as perhaps the most reliable piece since his acquisition in late May. The team’s 15 blown saves are tied for the fourth-most in the National League, and Swarzak’s elevation represented a unforeseen development of stability for an otherwise tumultuous bullpen unit.

In light of his recent success, the trade that sent Jesse Biddle and Arodys Vizcaino to Seattle, though perceive as a relatively minor swap at the time, seems like a major victory for Alex Anthopoulos and company. Vizcaino, though a quality reliever in his own right, is out for the remainder of the season and wouldn’t have been able to contribute to a Braves’ postseason run in 2019. Meanwhile, Jesse Biddle failed to deliver in Seattle and has since been designated for assignment, now finding himself in the Rangers’ organization.

Swarzak, though, has a history of shoulder problems, including issues that he encountered this spring with the Mariners. It makes the latest injury more worrisome for the contending Braves, who will certainly hope that Swarzak’s injury doesn’t keep him out of action for an extended period of time. Regardless of his status, Atlanta will still likely be in the market for pitching help as the trade deadline approaches, but a significant injury to their best reliever would only heighten the demand for reinforcements.

Sobotka, meanwhile, has only pitched 14 innings for the Braves this season, and has returned mixed results in parts of two season with the team. The big right-hander has flashed solid strikeout stuff, but has often struggled to find the strike zone, walking an average of 5.7 batters per nine innings pitched for his career. To be sure, he has the tools to become a mainstay in the Atlanta bullpen, but whether he can put it all together in the Majors remains to be seen: he followed up last year’s 1.88 ERA with a 7.07 mark in limited action this season.

Injury Notes: Soroka, Manaea, Gennett, Wood

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Braves right-hander Mike Soroka was removed from today’s game after being hit by a pitch by Austin Voth.  Soroka was struck in his right forearm, and while he took his base and finished the inning, he didn’t return to the mound in the bottom half of the frame.  The team announced that Soroka was removed “as a precaution,” and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that x-rays on Soroka’s forearm were negative.  It doesn’t appear as if the injury is too serious, which is undoubtedly a big relief for both the Braves and the rookie sensation.  While advanced metrics indicate that Soroka’s grounder-heavy (57% ground ball rate) arsenal is due for some regression, his 2.07 ERA over 78 1/3 innings has been a huge boost to an inconsistent Atlanta rotation.

Here’s more on some injury situations from around the game…

  • After throwing 60 pitches in a simulated game on Thursday, Sean Manaea’s rehab has been halted after the southpaw reported soreness in his right side, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other media.  “He’s got a little bit of a side soreness, so we’re shutting him down for a little bit. I don’t know if it’s an oblique or if he’s just feeling it a little bit in his side,” Melvin said. “We’re cutting back on him for a little bit here to get healthy. It’s not the arm, which is good.”  There isn’t any known timetable for when Manaea could begin throwing again, though Melvin didn’t seem to consider the issue to be major.  The A’s were projecting a possible return for Manaea after the All-Star break, as the left-hander was slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment following his last simulated outing.  Manaea hasn’t pitched since August 24, 2018 after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
  • Scooter Gennett’s rehab assignment shifts from high-A ball to Triple-A this week, and Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “there’s a chance” Gennett could be activated off the injured list on Friday, when the Reds begin a series against the Cubs.  The club will be as careful as possible with Gennett’s recovery process, of course, as the second baseman has yet to play this season due to a severe groin strain.  Gennett’s minor league rehab stint can last up to 20 days in length, and he only just got back on the field earlier this week.
  • Alex Wood, another Reds player who has yet to see action this season, is scheduled for his first rehab start on Thursday, Bell said.  Back problems have kept Wood out of action since late February, and he isn’t expected to be a candidate to join Cincinnati’s roster until after the All-Star break.  “We can’t rush it and he hasn’t had a Spring Training. We have to build him up,” Bell said.

NL Notes: Cubs, Happ, Story, Newcomb, Cervelli

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It’s been a while since the last update on the Cubs’ Ian Happ, who has yet to appear in a Major League game this season after he was optioned to Triple-A out of spring training. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, though, offers some insight into Happ’s mindset and process as he works towards rejoining the Cubs. Happ, 24, was a productive big-leaguer in his first two seasons with the Cubs, but was plagued by strikeouts and inconsistency, neither of which is an uncommon issue for a young player. During his time in Triple-A, Happ has focused on refining his approach and retooling his swing with an eye on contributing to a contending Cubs team in the second half. After striking out in 33.8% of his first 875 plate appearances, Happ has that number down to 27.3% in the minors this year, while increasing his ground ball rate as a result of a flattened swing designed to better cover elevated pitches. With Daniel Descalso and Addison Russell getting the majority of the second base reps and Albert Almora Jr. in center field, there looks to be an avenue for Happ to help to the Cubs in the near future, but it appears that the Cubs are content with a patient approach to Happ’s situation.

Here’s the latest on a handful of National League clubs…

  • Good news for Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, who recently landed on the IL with a thumb injury that was said to keep Story out for “multiple weeks.” Per the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, however, Story is progressing faster than anticipated and could indeed return to the Rockies after the allotted 10 days on the injured list. That would put Story on track to rejoin his team on June 29, which is certainly a welcome turn of events in Colorado. Surely, that’s no guarantee and the Rockies won’t rush their star back, but it’s sure to inspire more optimism than the original timeline.
  • The Braves’ bullpen will get a boost this week, with left-hander Sean Newcomb expected to return from the injured list ahead of Tuesday’s game against the Cubs, according to Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He showed promising signs in his most recent rehab outing and should be ready to pitch for the first time since taking a J.T. Realmuto liner to the neck last weekend. Though Mike Foltynewicz was demoted, thus leaving a void in the Braves’ starting rotation, that won’t be filled by Newcomb, who will remain in a relief role for the foreseeable future.
  • Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli could rejoin the team as early as next weekend, tweets Adam Berry of MLB.com. The 33-year-old catcher, who has been on the injured list since May 25 after suffering a concussion, could start a rehab assignment in the next few days and return to action for the Bucs shortly thereafter. Certainly, the Pirates have kept their heads above water with a catching tandem of Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings, both of whom have thus far outperformed Cervelli, who struggled in the season’s opening months.

Braves Option Mike Foltynewicz

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9:15am: The Braves have optioned Foltynewicz and recalled reliever Chad Sobotka, per a team announcement.

8:24am: Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz was the Braves’ No. 1 starter a year ago, when he seemingly broke out with a 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP in 183 innings. Now, after a rough opening to 2019, he’ll be the Braves’ most accomplished starter in the minors. They’re optioning Foltynewicz to Triple-A Gwinnett, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. The club will call up a reliever to fill Foltynewicz’s roster spot Sunday, per David O’Brien of The Athletic.

Foltynewicz started the Braves’ win over the Nationals on Saturday, but he didn’t contribute to his team’s cause. The 27-year-old yielded eight earned runs on eight hits and two walks (with two strikeouts) over four innings. His ERA/FIP combo now sits at a bloated 6.37/6.10 across 59 1/3 frames this season. While Foltynewicz’s walk rate looks normal (3.03 per nine), the rest of his numbers have dipped as his ERA has skyrocketed. After fanning nearly 10 batters per nine a year ago, Foltynewicz’s K/9 is down to 7.58 – his worst since he began his Braves tenure in 2015. His groundball and fly ball figures have also gone in worrying directions, helping lead to a hefty 20.5 percent home run-to-FB rate.

It isn’t just homers haunting Foltynewicz, whose hard-hit rate against has gone up by more than 5 percent since 2018, according to Statcast. As a result, batters have managed a .373 weighted on-base average/.347 expected wOBA off him. A decline in velocity surely hasn’t helped matters. Foltynewicz led all NL starters in average fastball velo a year ago, clocking in at 96.4, but has seen the mean fall to 95.2 this season. With that in mind, it’s worth noting he began 2019 on the injured list because of elbow issues and didn’t debut until late April.

The Braves will now hope Foltynewicz can work his way back via the minors and return to help their cause down the stretch. Despite his struggles, the reigning NL East champions are charging toward another division title, boasting a 45-32 record and a 5 1/2-game lead over their nearest competitor. Standout rookie Mike Soroka has been their ace, while rotation mates Julio Teheran and Max Fried have logged decent production. The club also just added Dallas Keuchel, who made his season debut Friday. It’s unclear who will join them in Foltynewicz’s place, though Bowman names Triple-A righty Bryse Wilson as a possibility.

With Foltynewicz heading to Gwinnett for now, he’ll stop accruing big league service time. Having racked up 87 days of service this year, he’s at four years and 78 days for his career. As things stand, Foltynewicz is on track to reach free agency after the 2021 season. He’s on a somewhat pricey $5.48MM salary at the moment, making his demotion all the more notable.

Braves To Start Dallas Keuchel On Friday

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JUNE 20: Keuchel will start for the Braves on Friday, O’Brien tweets. The club has optioned righty Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett to clear a 25-man roster spot for Keuchel.

JUNE 17: The Braves plan for left-hander Dallas Keuchel to make his season debut Friday against the division-rival Nationals, according to manager Brian Snitker (via David O’Brien of The Athletic and Mark Bowman of MLB.com).

Keuchel has pitched two minor league tuneup games since he ended his protracted trip to free agency with a one-year, $13MM agreement on June 7. The first, in which Keuchel threw seven shutout, one-hit innings at the Single-A level, went swimmingly. Keuchel added another seven frames in a Double-A start Saturday, though he allowed 11 hits and three earned runs. However, the Braves are “encouraged” by the fact that Keuchel threw 101 pitches in that outing, Bowman writes.

Although the reigning NL East champion Braves lead their division by 2 1/2 games this year, they’ve gotten to this point with middling starting pitching. In need of a complement to superb rookie Mike Soroka, the club made a notable in-season commitment to the 31-year-old Keuchel, who often excelled in Houston over the previous half-decade and has a 2015 AL Cy Young Award on his resume.

Keuchel is now about to join a Braves rotation which, aside from Soroka, isn’t the most trustworthy group. Julio Teheran has enjoyed a major bounce-back year in terms of bottom-line results, but as always, his peripherals aren’t as encouraging as his ERA. Meantime, Max Fried has cooled off since a great start, Mike Foltynewicz has been surprisingly poor after what looked like a breakout 2018, and Kevin Gausman (now injured), Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson haven’t offered solutions over a combined 22 starts.

Fortunately for Atlanta, Keuchel’s not the only reinforcement on the way. Injured center fielder Ender Inciarte – out since May 15 with a lumbar strain – has been cleared for baseball activities and could embark on a rehab assignment next week, per Bowman. However, as Bowman notes, Inciarte will not reclaim the starting job in center field when he returns to the majors.

The Braves can’t sit rookie standout left fielder Austin Riley, who will continue to line up alongside Inciarte’s center field replacement, Ronald Acuna Jr., and right fielder Nick Markakis. The defensively adept Inciarte had center on lockdown in Atlanta from 2016 until landing on the IL this year, but his injury and subpar start over the first month and a half of this season opened the door for the hot-hitting Riley.

MLB Draft Signings: 6/15/19

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Here’s a look at the game’s latest noteworthy draft signings, with the newest moves at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500, Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law….

Latest Signings

  • The Red Sox inked second-rounder Cameron Cannon, as per a team press release.  MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo first reported the Cannon signing earlier this week, and MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Cannon will receive a $1.3MM bonus, which is lower than the $1,729,800 slot price attached to the 43rd overall pick.  It should be noted that Cannon was Boston’s first pick of the 2019 draft, as their initial draft spot was dropped ten places as punishment for exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM.  Fangraphs had the highest projection on Cannon, ranking him 48th on their list of draft’s top prospects and describing the high schooler as an “infielder with approach and strong bat-to-ball skills,” with a potential for more power if he changes his swing.
  • The Royals have a deal with second-round pick Brady McConnell, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (Twitter link).  The 44th overall pick has a slot price of $1,689,500, though Kansas City went well over that figure in signing McConnell to a $2,222,450 bonus.  Ranked as the 39th-best prospect in the draft by MLB.com, their scouting report on McConnell citing his speed, contact ability, and “the chance for future average power.”  While McConnell was drafted as a shortstop, his future could be at second base or potentially even in center field.
  • Two teams made significant signings beyond the 10th round that will have hefty impacts on their draft bonus pools, as every post-10th round draft pick who signs for more than $125K will have the extra money counted against the pool.  The Braves signed 13th-round pick Tyler Owens to a $547.5K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports that the Cardinals have signed 14th-rounder Tyler Statler to a $300K bonus.  Both Owens and Statler are right-handed pitchers out of high school, who had respectively committed to attend Florida and Southeast Missouri State.

Earlier Today

  • Pirates supplemental first-round pick Sammy Siani has signed an above-slot deal worth $2.15MM, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. The recommended slot value for Siani’s pick (No. 37) was $1.99MM. Siani’s a Pennsylvania-based high school outfielder who may have “a little Andrew Benintendi in him,” per Callis and MLB.com colleague Jonathan Mayo, who give rave reviews to his left-handed swing.
  • Braves second-rounder Beau Philip (No. 60) has signed a below-slot deal for $700K, Mayo tweets. He’d have earned $1,157,400 at full value. Philip barely cracked MLB.com’s Top 200 entering the draft, coming in at No. 195. The Oregon State shortstop should be able to stay at the position, write Callis and Mayo, who laud his athleticism and bat speed.
  • The Indians have signed second-round choice Yordys Valdes for $1MM, according to Callis. The slot value for his pick, No. 63, was $1,076,300. Valdes is a switch-hitting, contact-making high school shortstop from Florida. Third-rounder Joe Naranjo – the 101st pick – also signed, but he landed an above-slot deal worth $770K ($577K slot). The California-based high school first baseman boasts “one of the best prep bats” in his draft class, Callis relays.
  • The Astros announced the signing of second-rounder Grae Kessinger, a shortstop from Ole Miss. The 68th overall pick, Kessinger received $750K – down from a $953K slot value. Kessinger may move into a second base/utility role in the pros, Callis and Mayo write. Houston also signed fourth-rounder Colin Barber to a deal worth well above slot, Callis relays. Barber, the 136th pick ($410K slot value), received $1MM. The California high schooler and former Oregon commit profiles as a hard-hitting right fielder, Callis writes.
  • Rangers fourth-rounder Cody Freeman (No. 115) has signed for $900K – significantly more than his $502K slot value – Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Freeman, yet another California high schooler, had committed to Baylor. Baseball America notes Freeman has “premium instincts” and offers a “well-rounded” package.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Donaldson

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Third baseman Josh Donaldson was one of the majors’ elite players from 2013-17, a five-year, 3,270-plate appearance span with the Athletics and Blue Jays in which he ranked second only to Mike Trout in fWAR (34.4). Donaldson slashed .282/.377/.524 along the way and placed fifth in wRC+ (148) and sixth in home runs (164). In 2015, his best season during that stretch, Donaldson smashed 41 homers en route to American League MVP honors. Four years later, though, it’s highly questionable whether Donaldson will ever approach the MVP conversation again.

After an injury-limited 2018 season with the Jays and Indians, with whom he combined for a solid but unspectacular .246/.352/.449 line (117 wRC+) in 52 games and 219 trips to the plate, Donaldson headed to the NL via free agency this past winter. While he only inked a one-year contract with the Braves, they gave him $23MM in hopes he’d rekindle his glory years. However, two-plus months into the season, his production hasn’t matched his expensive salary.

The 33-year-old Donaldson turned in a 1-for-4 performance in a win over the Pirates on Thursday, contributing to a .236/.349/.419 line in 269 PA this season. While Donaldson has been a durable option for the Braves so far, his wRC+ only rates 5 percent above league average – his worst mark since his rookie year with the A’s in 2012. Having hit nine home runs, Donaldson’s on pace for 21, which would be his fewest in a full season. And Donaldson’s current ISO (.187) would also go down as his worst over a full campaign.

One of the problems, it seems, is that Donaldson’s not hitting enough fly balls. Donaldson’s pulling the ball more than ever, but that’s not particularly beneficial if he’s not elevating it. Although Donaldson was one of the game’s most notable spokesmen of its fly ball revolution during his heyday, his FB rate in 2019 (34 percent) is 8-plus percent lower than where it was in 2017 and checks in nearly 2 percent below league average. It’s unfortunate, too, because Donaldson’s 97.7 mph exit velocity on flies and line drives ranks 10th in the majors this year, according to Statcast. Donaldson’s 93 mph exit velo on all batted balls sits an even better ninth, though there’s not a ton of value in hitting hard grounders – especially when you possess below-average speed.

Beyond Donaldson’s batted-ball profile, his increasing strikeout rate presents more bad news. Donaldson has gone down on strikes 28.3 percent of the time this season, up from 18.4 percent during his half-decade stretch of greatness. To his credit, Donaldson’s somewhat offsetting that with a high walk rate (13.8 percent). However, he’s chasing more pitches than ever outside the strike zone, swinging and missing more than he has since his 34-PA debut in 2010, and making far less contact than he did in his star-level years.

Left-handed pitchers, whom the righty-swinging Donaldson has pulverized throughout his career, have been especially tough on him this year. He has slashed a horrid .167/.335/.229 against southpaws, who have stifled his power (ISO heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2010-18; 2019), in part because he’s no longer offering much resistance against offspeed pitches.

Adding everything up, Donaldson’s weighted on-base average and expected wOBA (.340/.354) indicate he’s still a quality producer at the plate. Beyond that, with three Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner this season, Donaldson’s still capable of handling his position. But Donaldson’s not the All-Star performer he was in Oakland and Toronto, and he hasn’t done a lot in Atlanta to help his stock as he gears up for a second straight trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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