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NL Central Notes: Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Pirates

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Time will tell whether the Brewers can follow the Cubs’ path back to contention, but it would help if Brewers GM David Stearns ended up with Theo Epstein’s trade record, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. The Cubs acquired Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Addison Russell in a series of terrific trades. They’ve also added Jon Lester, Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist via the free agent market, but the smaller-payroll Brewers won’t be able to depend on a similar infusion of talent. Here’s more from the NL Central.

  • The Reds are still hoping for the returns of several key injured players, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Zack Cozart (knee soreness), Billy Hamilton (oblique strain), Homer Bailey (biceps tenderness) and Cody Reed (back tightness) are all currently unavailable, but of the four, only Reed has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Bailey threw a bullpen session Sunday, and Cozart and Hamilton are both rehabbing their injuries. Of course, there’s little time left for them to return, and manager Bryan Price characterizes the likelihood of a Hamilton return as “improbable,” but he wants to keep the door open. “The easy thing is to shut down — that’s the easiest thing in the world is to shut everyone down,” says Price. “However, that’s not a culture that we really want to build here. … And unless these guys are deemed incapable of playing, they should be working hard to get back on the field and I think they are.”
  • The Pirates could still theoretically win a playoff berth, but if their remote postseason chances do evaporate, their distribution of playing time is unlikely to chance much, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. “Look at the at-bats that Adam Frazier and Josh Bell are getting, look at the innings that (Jameson) Taillon, (Steve) Brault and now (Tyler) Glasnow are getting, and (Felipe) Rivero is an anchor in our bullpen,” says GM Neal Huntington. “We don’t feel like we’ve got a veteran who’s taking innings or at-bats from a young player that necessarily we would change if we were to get eliminated.” Huntington does allow that Glasnow could get a turn in the Bucs’ rotation before the end of the season.

Brewers Shut Down Junior Guerra

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With nothing to play for the in the standings and only 13 games remaining in their season, the 67-82 Brewers have shut down right-hander Junior Guerra for the year, manager Craig Counsell announced Saturday (Twitter link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Guerra missed most of August with an elbow injury, but he’s now healthy, Counsell said. Nevertheless, the club has elected to end the 31-year-old rookie’s season after he threw a combined 148 1/3 innings, his most with a major league organization, with Milwaukee and Triple-A Colorado Springs . He could next partake in winter ball.

“That will be discussed,” stated Counsell (Twitter link via Rosiak).

To conclude his year, Guerra spun six shutout innings and allowed five base runners (three hits, two walks) against six strikeouts in a 7-0 win over the Reds on Wednesday. In all, he recorded a sparkling 2.81 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and 45.3 percent ground-ball rate in 121 2/3 major league innings to serve as an unexpected bright spot this season for the Brewers.

Guerra bounced around the Braves, Mets and White Sox organizations form 2006-15, but he only amassed four major league innings – all of which came in Chicago last season. Amazingly, he didn’t pitch for any major league organizations from 2009-14, instead dividing his time among the Venezuelan Winter League, independent American Assocation and Mexican League. Guerra’s stint with the White Sox led him to the Brewers, who claimed him off waivers from Chicago last October and have since reaped the rewards. Notably, claiming Guerra was general manager David Stearns’ first transaction atop the Milwaukee franchise.

Despite his age, Guerra’s lack of service time means he’s nowhere near free agency and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2018 season. That could make him either a cheap candidate to continue in the Brewers’ rotation or a trade chip. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline that the Stearns-led Brewers weren’t in any hurry to deal Guerra and would have wanted a significant haul for him.

Keon Broxton Suffers Fractured Wrist

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Brewers outfielder Keon Broxton will miss the tail end of the season after breaking his wrist today at Wrigley Field, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports on Twitter. Broxton was injured in a collision with the outfield wall.

It’s an unfortunate way to end what has been a promising campaign for the 26-year-old Broxton. Over 242 plate appearances, he owns a .238/.349/.427 batting line with nine home runs and 22 stolen bases. That’s quite a useful output for a player who draws rave reviews for his glovework in center field.

Long an intriguing prospect, Broxton had fallen out of favor as he failed to fully develop on the field despite evident tools and athletic ability. Though he posted solid offensive numbers in the upper minors over 2014-15, Broxton received only a brief MLB call-up with the Pirates — who had picked him up after the Diamondbacks lost patience.

Milwaukee has been rewarded thus far after taking a crack at unlocking Broxton’s talent in the winter swap that sent Jason Rogers to Pittsburgh. Rogers flat-out raked during his time at Triple-A this year, earning a well-deserved promotion. Now, so long as he is able to return to full health over the winter, it seems that Broxton will enter camp as the favorite to serve as the Brewers’ primary center fielder.

Three Needs: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season.  Until then, the Brewers are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’€™s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels.

Milwaukee GM David Stearns has continued to engineer a rebuild that was kicked off by his predecessor, Doug Melvin. The payroll is way down and the high-priced veterans have mostly been cleared out, but it has taken place in a fairly methodical manner thus far with largely positive results (despite the anticipated, subpar record). Here are three needs for the organization as the offseason approaches:

[Brewers Depth Chart]

1. Trade Ryan Braun.

I know, very edgy choice. Braun is the last remaining Brewers player who is promised money past the 2017 season, making him an obvious trade candidate. (Only one other — Matt Garza — has a guaranteed contract next year.) On the one hand, that means, that the club doesn’t need to move Braun just to pare down the costs; even with him this year, the payroll sat at just over $60MM on Opening Day and has receded since.

The key here, though, is timing. Milwaukee has prospered immensely from selling at the right moment on players such as Carlos Gomez (traded before a fall-off) and Jonathan Lucroy (traded after he rebuilt value). You could argue the same, in varying ways, of hurlers Mike Fiers, Jeremy Jeffress, and Will Smith.

With Braun, the question has never been talent or productivity. But he has a sketchy injury history, carries the stain of a PED melodrama, and turns 33 in two months. The $76MM left on his contract over four years remains a bit of a limiting factor, but is a pretty fair price for a player who owns a .306/.371/.537 slash with 27 home runs and 15 steals.

It’s unlikely at this point that Braun’s value will ever be higher, and there’s a chance it could tumble. Whether he goes to the Dodgers or elsewhere, the coming offseason is probably the time to finish clearing the books. (Moving Garza, too, could make sense — either in a winter bereft of open-market pitching talent or after giving him a chance to boost his value in the first half of 2017.)

2. Find the next Junior Guerra …

Or the next Jonathan Villar. Or, really, just the next Chris Carter or even Aaron Hill. Stearns’s first move as a GM — plucking Guerra off the waiver wire — remains his most impressive. But he has proven adept at finding hidden gems from free and cheap talent pools. All the guys he’s tried out haven’t worked, but plenty have. Better still, the most notable success stories thus far have not only been cheap, but have had service time remaining, greatly increasing the upside/expense ratio.

So, who’s the next candidate? If I knew that, I’d probably be peddling the information to a major league team. But while organizations desperate for near-term production will feel compelled to plunk down several million dollars for the best-bet bounceback veterans, odds are that Stearns will be mining the ranks of underappreciated journeymen who have shown a spark and intriguing young players who aren’t going to keep roster spots with their organizations.

These players have plenty of function just by showing up, because they help prop up the quality of the on-field production at virtually no cost. What will be most interesting to see, though, is whether Milwaukee can begin to parlay these bargain finds into real value — either by flipping some of the players in trades or deploying them during a winning season.

3. Chart out an ascension plan. 

Call me crazy, but I think things could move fairly quickly for the Brewers. Unlike other recent tear-down situations, Milwaukee has not really had to offload huge and burdensome contracts; the veterans they have dealt have been appealing players who brought good, high-level young talent.

To be sure, I’m not advocating for the club to ramp up spending in anticipation of contending in 2017. But there are some benefits to planning for an optimistic scenario, which might include something in the vicinity of a .500 record next year with some more upward mobility to follow. Doing so in a measured way would allow the club to build toward contention without weighing down the future balance sheet.

With that in mind, perhaps the Brewers don’t need to keep a perfectly pristine balance sheet for the entirety of the near-future. Adding some well-conceived, reasonably youthful talent through free agency or trade isn’t only a strategy for larger-budget rebuilders — at least when a team’s payroll is already low. In Milwaukee’s case, there are a few arb raises to account for in 2017, but none that figure to make much of a dent. Perhaps being willing to pay a bit for one or more mid-level, health-concern/bounceback free agents — Luis Valbuena, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, Andrew Cashner, or (dare I say it) Carlos Gomez are a few who come to mind — could be a viable strategy.

Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers, Puig-Braun, CarGo, Cespedes, EE, Santana, Red Sox, Mariners

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Dodgers righty Kenley Jansen says he is grateful to the team for all it has done for him, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports, but notes that he fully intends to explore the open market this winter. “We’ll have to see what’s good for the family,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough decision. It’s not going to only be me.” Infielder Justin Turner, meanwhile, says he’d “love to stay” in Los Angeles, as Heyman provides in his weekly notes column. Both figure to be targets for the Dodgers in free agency, but also ought to draw wide-ranging interest from other organizations.

Here are some of the other highlights from Heyman’s latest post:

  • Heyman pushes back on recent reports suggesting that the Dodgers nearly shipped Yasiel Puig to the Brewers as part of a package to acquire Ryan Braun. A source tells him that “there was a lot of dialogue but [a swap] was never close.” Regardless, it seems that there’s still merit to the idea that the teams could revisit the scenario this winter.
  • “No great offers” emerged last winter for Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, according to the report. But Colorado may be wise to shop him again in a few months, Heyman writes, as the team’s glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders could represent an opportunity to improve in other areas. Gonzalez is hitting a productive .300/.350/.523, even if it is aided by playing at Coors Field, and is owed a reasonable $37MM over the next two seasons. It’s worth noting, too, that the club could potentially not only turn that contract into some intriguing, younger assets, but would also free up a good bit of payroll space to deploy on the open market.
  • The upcoming market for free agents is obviously short on star power, but Heyman provides some preliminary guesses on the contracts for the top players. He suggests four years and $100MM for Yoenis Cespedes of the Mets as the biggest deal that could be had (assuming, as seems likely, that he’ll opt out of his deal). From my perspective, another star campaign from Cespedes has likely boosted his market beyond that level. The Cuban slugger rates as the top overall free agent on the free agent power ranking of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.
  • Edwin Encarnacion of the Blue Jays is fourth on Dierkes’s most recent list — he rates Aroldis Chapman and Jansen higher — while Heyman rates him second to Cespedes. But the veteran slugger is headed for a monster contract regardless, and Heyman notes that the continued belief around the game is that Toronto won’t extend itself to retain him. Instead, the Jays seem to be angling to put together a younger roster.
  • Whether Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons is interested in staying on with more change possibly afoot remains to be seen, but Heyman says that the club has been impressed with his work. An internal team source suggests that the team will attempt to retain him — at least as long as a postseason berth is secured — and sources with ties to the skipper say that he likely prefers to stick in the position rather than hunting for another opportunity elsewhere.
  • Carlos Santana is highly likely to return to the Indians, per the report. His $12MM club option is a “no-brainer” for the club, a source says. The 30-year-old never seemed very likely to be allowed to test the market: he carries a .243/.353/.471 batting line with 31 long balls and has struck out only one time more than he has walked thus far in 2016.
  • The Red Sox are expected to pursue relief help on the upcoming free agent market, Heyman says. That’s not surprising to hear, of course, as depth and quality have both been in question at times and the team is set to watch pitchers such as Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara, and Junichi Tazawa depart via free agency.
  • With a group of talented, high-performing players on hand, the Mariners are “talking behind the scenes” about taking advantage of a window of contention, according to Heyman. That could position the club to strike out on the free agent market in search of a “complementary piece,” he says. There are several areas the team could target, but I wonder whether the time may be right to add a slugging first baseman; there are several available, and the team is set to lose its primary tandem of Adam Lind and Dae-ho Lee to free agency.

Puig-Braun Blockbuster Nearly Occurred, Likely To Be Revisited

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We heard recently that the Dodgers and Brewers had worked on an August trade that would have sent Yasiel Puig to Milwaukee in exchange for fellow outfielder Ryan Braun. New reports provide interesting new details on the swap, which nearly took place and could well be a viable scenario for the coming winter.

One iteration of the talks would have packaged Puig with righty Brandon McCarthy and a pair of prospects, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy recently reported. Indeed, negotiations went right down to the wire before the August 31st deadline, with Braun camping out in the Miller Park clubhouse to await word. The sides “simply ran out of time,” per McCalvy, who adds that both the Giants and Braves have stated interest in the veteran slugger.

Whether or not other trade partners will be reconsidered remains to be seen, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today says that an offseason deal to send Braun to the Dodgers is actually “likely.” According to the report, Braun was advised by the Brewers to stick around and wait until the deadline because a deal seemed so promising at that juncture. Ultimately, the final prospect piece couldn’t be agreed upon.

Braun declined to address the matter, but did note that he grew up a Dodgers fan and spends his winters in the Los Angeles area. “When those conversations started, I think it was an interesting position for me to be in,” he said. Braun’s contract requires him to list up to six teams to which he can freely be traded, and the Dodgers were one club that had a green light this year. If he wanted to gain leverage, he could in theory switch the Dodgers out of that position when his next opportunity to re-name the teams arises, though it seems that Braun has compiled his list based primarily on geographic preference.

The above-noted trade parameters are obviously quite interesting, even before learning what type of prospects would’ve been included. McCarthy’s inclusion would help offset the $76MM in salary obligations owed to Braun after this year, as the veteran hurler will be paid $20MM over the next two seasons and has only just returned from Tommy John surgery. But he also might have filled some innings for Milwaukee while representing an interesting potential bounceback trade piece — especially if his 2019 conditional club option is available. (It has not been reported what type of injury would allow that option to be triggered, but it functions as a variation of the Lackey clause.)

Cafardo’s Latest: Sox, Dozier, Votto, Jays, Puig, Braun

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Here are the latest rumblings from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who’s looking ahead to the offseason:

  • The Red Sox will be in the market for a big bat to replace retiring designated hitter David Ortiz, which could lead them to pursue free agents-to-be Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Carlos Beltran, Mark Trumbo and Mike Napoli. Boston is quite familiar with all of those players – Encarnacion, Bautista and Trumbo are currently in its division, while Beltran was in the AL East until the Yankees traded him to Texas in July. Napoli, who’s in the midst of a bounce-back year in Cleveland, is the only member of the group with past Red Sox experience. The soon-to-be 35-year-old was with Boston from 2013-15 and was a key part of its latest World Series-winning team in his first season with the club.
  • If the Twins shop slugging second baseman Brian Dozier during the winter, they’ll likely want front-line pitching in return, per Cafardo. Dozier, who is one home run shy of joining Rogers Hornsby, Ryne Sandberg and Davey Johnson as the only second basemen to hit 40 in a season, is on an eminently affordable contract over the next two seasons. The 29-year-old power and speed threat is owed a combined $15MM through the 2018 campaign.
  • Even though the Blue Jays have undergone a regime change since they tried to acquire first baseman Joey Votto from the Reds last summer, talks could restart if Toronto loses both Encarnacion and Bautista in free agency. Cincinnati would also have to eat some of the $192MM left on Votto’s contract to make a deal possible, according to Cafardo. Votto, a Toronto native, is enjoying yet another brilliant season, having slashed .315/.433/.525 with 23 homers in 589 plate appearances.
  • While the White Sox will listen to teams’ proposals for left-handed ace Chris Sale after the season, a deal seems unlikely. “The odds of getting what we feel we need to get are slim. That’s why I think Chris will be with us in 2017,” a White Sox source told Cafardo. That jibes with an earlier report from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, who relayed that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf doesn’t want to move Sale.
  • The Brewers and Dodgers are likely to revisit talks centering on outfielders Ryan Braun and Yasiel Puig in the offseason, a Dodgers source told Cafardo. Los Angeles placed Puig on revocable waivers in August, and the Brewers won the claim. The teams then discussed him and Braun, but a deal didn’t come to fruition.

NL Notes: Fernandez, Albies, Peralta, Peraza

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The Marlins picked up a decisive win in last night’s game, but Miami has nonetheless dropped eight of its past 10 games to fall five games out of an NL Wild Card spot. With the team’s playoff hopes dwindling, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes that the Fish are prepared to shut down Jose Fernandez if they slip further out of contention. Miami has hoped to cap Fernandez’s innings around 180, though a postseason berth may have added some extra frames to that limit. Instead, with the young ace already at 160 1/3 innings, skipper Don Mattingly conceded that shutting Fernandez down is “absolutely” a consideration if the team’s losing continues. “We’ll look at that as it goes,” said Mattingly. “Obviously, we’ve been paying attention to his innings all along.”

More from the NL East…

  • Braves prospect Ozzie Albies is going to miss the rest of the season after suffering a still-unspecified elbow injury, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. It isn’t believed he suffered any ligament damage from the fouled-off pitch that struck him, but a fracture is still possible. Of greater concern, the 19-year-old likely won’t be able to play in the Arizona Fall League, which had perhaps been one of his final hurdles before reaching the majors. It’s still plenty possible that he’ll play a big role on the varsity squad next year, of course, but the presumption may now be that Albies will open the 2017 season in the minors.
  • The recent work of Wily Peralta may have him back in the Brewers’ 2017 rotation plans, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy writes. He’ll earn a modest raise on his $2.8MM arbitration salary, but that now looks again to be quite a reasonable price tag. Despite a brutal start, Peralta has turned in a 3.35 ERA over his last six outings.
  • It is time for the Reds to clear room for Jose Peraza in the daily lineup, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer opines. Peraza has impressed of late with the bat, and manager Bryan Price says that “it’s just a matter of finding his best spot and where he best serves the team.” Rosecrans discusses the defensive possibilities, now and in 2017, for the speedy youngster.

Heyman’s Latest: White Sox, Marlins, Brewers, Yankees, Gurriel, Saunders

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FanRag’s Jon Heyman kicks off his weekly notes column by ranking the 20 best trades in the past two years, with the Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson acquisition topping the list. Certainly a good deal of hindsight is used when crafting any such list, and the development of certain prospects could change the way we perceive some of these still-fresh deals, but many of the swaps listed do indeed look lopsided one way or another at the moment.

Some highlights from the column…

  • The White Sox never even put Chris Sale or Jose Quintana on trade waivers last month, knowing that there wouldn’t be time to negotiate a sufficient return in the limited 47-hour window after the respective aces were claimed. They’ll instead explored trade scenarios for both pitchers once again this winter, though owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t keen on rebuilding. Todd Frazier was claimed on trade waivers but pulled back, according to Heyman, whereas outfielder Melky Cabrera made it through waivers but remained in Chicago despite his above-average offensive production dating back to last June.
  • The Marlins will try to find a No. 2 type starter this winter to slot between Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen, but the usual caveats apply: this offseason bears a historically poor crop of free-agent starting pitching, and the Marlins’ paper-thin farm system makes it difficult to land a high-quality pitcher via trade. Per Heyman, the Marlins are frequently asked about Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto but are loath to part with either rising star. He also adds that manager Don Mattingly is strongly in favor of the team re-signing Martin Prado.
  • Jonathan Villar’s strong play for the Brewers this season has apparently created some wishful thinking among other clubs, as there’s been increased interest in top prospect Orlando Arcia, but the Brewers are “not entertaining offers” for the highly touted 22-year-old.
  • Aaron Judge’s struggles notwithstanding, the Yankees won’t seek outfield help this offseason, GM Brian Cashman told Heyman. In addition to Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Judge and Aaron Hicks, Cashman pointed out that the Yankees also have Clint Frazier and Mason Williams, commenting that players with Frazier’s level of talent can force their way onto the big league roster quickly. The GM also expressed confidence that Luis Severino can stick as a starting pitcher and talked about the rapid development of Gary Sanchez on the heels of the young catcher’s stunning late-season breakout.
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the younger brother of Astros infielder/DH Yulieski Gurriel, will host a showcase for interested teams on Sep. 14 in Panama City, according to Heyman. The Cardinals are one of about 20 teams planning to go watch the young shortstop, he notes. While the showcase will allow teams to get a look at the younger Gurriel, I can’t envision him actually signing until his 23rd birthday passes on Oct. 19. At that point, Gurriel will no longer be considered an amateur, and thus will no longer be subject to international signing bonuses.
  • The Blue Jays will make the obvious decisions to extend qualifying offers to Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, and they’re also considering a QO for Michael Saunders. While that might’ve seemed like a highly implausible scenario a few months back, Saunders has been quite good in a full, healthy season. In 500 plate appearances, the 29-year-old is slashing .266/.348/.505 with 23 homers — though he hasn’t been as good in the season’s second half. Saunders’ injury history could at least create some pause, but given his quality offensive output and lack of a platoon split in 2016, I think he’d be able to secure a nice multi-year pact even if he turned down the sizable one-year offer.

Brewers Acquire Ryan Cordell To Complete Jonathan Lucroy Trade

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The Brewers announced on Monday that they have acquired minor league third baseman/outfielder Ryan Cordell from the Rangers as the player to be named later in the Jonathan Lucroy/Jeremy Jeffress deadline blockbuster. In total, then, the Brewers will acquire outfielder Lewis Brinson, right-hander Luis Ortiz and Cordell for the pair of Lucroy and Jeffress.

Ryan Cordell

The 24-year-old Cordell is rated as the Rangers’ No. 6 prospect, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo. Baseball America rated him as the team’s No. 9 prospect in their own midseason update (Brinson and Ortiz were ranked second and third, respectively, on that same list). Cordell has played exclusively in the outfield this season (seeing time at all three positions) but also has 300+ innings of experience at third base and saw some time at shortstop last season as well. He’s spent the entire year with Texas’ Double-A affiliate and batted .264/.319/.484 with 19 homers, 22 doubles, five triples and 12 stolen bases.

Baseball America noted in their write-up on him that he’s made strides in his plate discipline, chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches in his second trip through Double-A, and that bears out in his strikeout rate; Cordell walked in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in Double-A last season, compared to a woeful 30.2 percent strikeout rate. This year, however, he’s walked at a 7.1 percent clip and cut his strikeout rate to 21.8 percent. In MLB.com’s scouting report, Callis and Mayo write that Cordell has “some of the best all-around tools” in the Rangers minor league system and could eventually have average-or-better tools across the board. His best tool right now is his speed, but he also has the bat speed to hit for power as well.

MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy points out (via Twitter) that Cordell’s season ended this year due to an Aug. 2 knee injury, and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets that the injury was sustained when Cordell crashed into the outfield wall. However, the Brewers clearly aren’t overly concerned about the long-term implications of that collision and will count on a full season from Cordell in 2017. Given his production and experience at the Double-A level, it’s not far-fetched to think that Cordell could either open the season with Triple-A Colorado Springs or, at the very least, be promoted to that level early in the 2017 campaign.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported that Cordell was the player to be named later (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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