Most players have about 30 remaining regular season games to add to their free agent bona fides. Postseason heroics don’t always change a free agent’s valuation, as Daniel Murphy can attest. Still, the majority of players on this list will see their seasons extend into the playoffs, providing a chance to shine on baseball’s biggest stage. The players below are ranked on their expected earning power in free agency. To view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents, click here.
1. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes aggravated his quad in early August, but returned to close out the month with five home runs in 11 games. He’s showing more power than ever and has even started drawing walks. Cespedes, who turns 31 in October, told reporters recently he’d like to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but he has not made a decision about his opt-out clause. Barring a large extension with the Mets, it is a virtual lock Cespedes opts out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM left on his contract in search of a bigger commitment.
2. Aroldis Chapman. Aside from a laborious save last night at Wrigley, Chapman had a fine month for the Cubs. He appears in line to score a record contract for a reliever this winter.
3. Kenley Jansen. Jansen had a few rare blips in August, but he’s still right there with Chapman as one of the game’s dominant ninth inning forces. Chapman, Jansen, and Mark Melancon are poised to take the free agent relief market to new heights in a few months. Of the three, only Jansen will be subject to a qualifying offer, if that system remains in place.
4. Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion had another fine month with the bat, slugging eight more home runs to bring his total to 36. His career-high of 42 bombs is within reach. Unfortunately, Encarnacion has drawn attention for a lawsuit in which a woman alleges he knowingly infected her with sexually transmitted diseases in February. Any team considering signing Encarnacion this offseason is going to have questions and concerns about this situation.
5. Wilson Ramos. Ramos had a respectable August, with his career-best home run total climbing to 20. Among full-time catchers, that mark ties him for second in all of baseball. Ramos celebrated his 29th birthday in August, and his youth opens up the possibility of a five-year deal in free agency. If the bidding results in a contract near Russell Martin’s five-year, $82MM pact, Ramos could be the second-biggest earner among all free agents. For more on Ramos’ market, check out Jeff Todd’s Free Agent Stock Watch.
6. Ian Desmond. Desmond hit a bump in the road in August, batting just .241/.276/.276 in 123 plate appearances for the Rangers. He’s no longer the free agent WAR leader. Desmond’s overall resurgent campaign still justifies a four-year deal, with strong contributions in hitting, baserunning, and defense.
7. Justin Turner. At 4.3 WAR, Turner is the most valuable free agent currently. The 31-year-old has combined his typical above average third base defense with newfound power at the plate. Turner’s 24 home runs marks a career high, though his batting average has slipped from the lofty heights of 2014-15. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd dissected Turner’s season and market position at length in this recent Free Agent Stock Watch.
8. Mark Trumbo. Trumbo leads all of MLB with 40 home runs, after adding ten more in August. It was an all or nothing month for the 30-year-old right-handed slugger, who hit .181/.280/.500 in 107 plate appearances. Oddly, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching this year, after hitting .272/.328/.542 off southpaws from 2013-15. His poor defensive season is less of a surprise. Unlike a player like Desmond, Trumbo can only help a team in one area: power. I still think he has a reasonable chance at a four-year deal, though about 58% of MLBTR readers don’t think he’ll get one.
9. Jose Bautista. Bautista, 35, missed a chunk of August due to a knee sprain. While his offensive rate stats are down, the bigger concern is his health and defense moving forward. In the aforementioned survey, less than 13% of MLBTR readers think Bautista will get a four-year deal this winter. I agree with that assessment.
10. Josh Reddick. Reddick held the third spot on this list a month ago. Since being traded to the Dodgers, he’s hitting just .161/.223/.172 in 94 plate appearances. One month may not torpedo his free agent value entirely, and he still has September and October to build it back up. MLBTR’s writing team has debated whether Reddick can still land a four-year deal, with Jeff Todd’s Nick Markakis comp suggesting it’s possible. The ever-pessimistic MLBTR readership gives only a 26% chance of a four-year deal for Reddick. If they’re correct, he won’t hold a spot in the top ten.
An honorable mention goes to Mets second baseman Neil Walker, who held the tenth spot on this list until news broke that he’s likely to undergo season-ending back surgery. I would not rule out a four-year deal for Walker, who set a career-high of 3.8 WAR in just 113 games. Others who are not too far from cracking the top ten: Dexter Fowler, Michael Saunders, and Mark Melancon. The market will also feature power bats Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, and Carlos Beltran, great speed and baserunning in Rajai Davis, and high contact hitter Martin Prado.
You may have noticed the complete lack of starting pitchers mentioned. The free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bleak this winter, with Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, and Rich Hill as the top-ranked arms.
FYI on an edit I made shortly after publishing – had meant to put Turner seventh, so I moved him there from ninth. I see Turner, Trumbo, and Bautista in similar total dollar ranges at present ($60MM or so), but probably with Turner having the best chance of getting more.
You speculate about the continuation of the QO. When does the current CBA expire?
It expires on Dec 1. The November qualifying offer and acceptance dates remain in place until a new agreement is reached. A new agreement could completely eliminate, modify, or maintain the current system.
So in theory at least, QOs made to players after this postseason could be voided by the new CBA? If that’s even possible it seems like potentially a big mess.
Do you think it’s possible Atlanta could lure Turner to Atlanta w/ a 2-3 year, higher AAV contract? I’d like to see him man 3rd for Atlanta, but not a long-term deal.
I would think ATL would probably lose out in a mini-bidding war and go with Prado, who is 1 year older than Turner, a fan favorite, could be lured away from a division rival, and could be more versatile possibly than Turner in the event that we find a 3B upgrade in the near-future and want to turn Prado into a poor man’s Zobrist. Upside is Prado is a contact-hitter, whom FO loves, but downside is he has Markakis power. Turner hits for less contact, though not substantially, with more power. Eventually LAD are going to have to stop letting some of their perceived cogs leave – and Turner might be one.
I don’t mind Prado. I still think they make some move OF wise for some power for 2017+
I can live w/ Prado’s low power numbers. I always felt he was a gamer. Hustled, put the ball in play.
I’d bet on a nice trade. Seeing a few of our young pitchers string together some nice starts (Wisler, Folty), but I’d think the biggest move they make this offseason will be a trade (and not a catcher).
What’s wrong with Garcia and Ruiz manning 3rd next year? Garcia has improved greatly since coming back and Ruiz is a young gun who can be a good platoon man with him.
I agree Garcia should be in the discussion but only if we land a big bat for the outfield. I see Markakis and one of Smith/Inciarte traded to open up RF. Garcia is hitting with more power than Prado this year and pairing him with a young guy like Ruiz could be an intriguing duo. But if we don’t get 2 starters it’s a moot point.
Clearly the Braves are embarking on a rebuild through their farm system and by trading for high end prospects out of other systems. I doubt they’ll be interested in
free agents until that process is close to complete. And it could take awhile … just as with the Phils … Marlins seem closer but they are probably a source for canny trades of young veterans and prospects; they can’t be considered a stable franchise …
Mets are hamstrung by MadOff stupidity.
You’re just going to have to wait and hope the fan base doesn’t disappear when they move out beyond intown and downtown to the boonies on the border of North Carolina.
I don’t know why any team would go more than two years with a third year team option on Bautista.
I wonder if teams will look at Desmond exclusively as an outfielder. Maybe a 3b needy time gives him a look. Not sure he’ll ever be a ss again.
I look a Desmond as another Zobrist, Baez, or Bryant, a super utility man. This position will get him the most money. This newer position gives teams flexibity just like the floating closer Andrew Miller.
I know nobody can predict the future, but reading some of the comments off of the Nats/Murphy link above are funny in hindsight:
“So glad the Dodgers did not sign this scrub he is a bad contract waiting to happen.”
“Well, he really can’t play 2B. He better hit like a maniac..”
“Murphy’s batting line against the Mets next season: .18 games, 450/.490/.650, 7 HR, 19 RBI” – nice job sampsonite168 !
There are positive ones as well, I just cherry picked the negatives.
Next season Murphy probably ends up as the Nat’s starting first baseman. Given Zimmerman’s sad downhill spiral from the shoulder injuries. He’s a top first baseman as opposed to a questionable 2nd bagger. As we’ve seen so …
Wonder who are the top starting pitchers that could be traded this winter…? That free agent class looks especially awful.
If i had to guess, (being the non professional that I am lol), I would say Sale or Quintana, Sonny Gray, and Walker of the Ms.
Would add Bailey to the list he has way out pitched his ERA so far and k/9 is looking as good as ever with bb/9 right in line with career averages, he can still be a front line starter, the Reds will have to eat money but they seem like they would be ok in doing so at this point. Would remove Gray they wont trade low on him and he has no chance to really rebuild any value between now and the off season.
I agree, I could see Sale, Greinke, and Quantana being moved.
If I was a betting man, I would bet that Prado ends up with the Braves. I think the Braves might skip out on the Ramos bidding war and give Recker some more playing time. It sucks for the Braves because although they have many holes, I think with adding Prado they have a serviceable offense, yet no pitching. With this FA class I don’t see the Braves filling many Pitching holes and they aren’t in the mode to trade for SPs this upcoming year. I will be hopeful for a slightly above .500 season.
The offense has been doing pretty well since the first of Aug or so. Pitching is young, will come around with time. The future is pretty solid in that department I think, Blair aside.
I’d welcome Prado for 3rd, for sure. Or Turner on a short contract.
I still think that Atlanta will go after Wieters, unfortunately.
I’m not so sure that ATL and Wieters is a perfect match. I’d think ATL is looking at a few short-term C options to prevent a run at Ramos, who I don’t think is the answer. They know they have to get this one right, considering how long we’ve been without consistent production behind the plate (remember the days of McCann/David Ross?) If Wieters does not get a QO, I could think ATL would be interested in a short-term deal padded with incentives and/or options.
I thought Cespedes said that he wasn’t planning on opting out and would instead play out the 3 years.
Never believe anyone.
I hold A.J. Burnett up as an example of this theory.
Just went back a looked and see the story was updated.
Still interesting that he seems to want to stay in New York so badly.
He has to opt out. Even if he wants to stay in New York I’m sure they will offer him more than 2 years $47.5m
I wonder where Jason Castro fits into the Free Agent market? I would think that he will be highly sought after?
With both the LAD & NYY needing 2 SP’s the price to trade for or sign any SP will be off the charts. It looks so bleak I could see the Red Sox picking up Bucholtz’s 13.5 MM option.
I think Prado will get 3yrs 39 MM.
Agreed, the starting pitching of the teams like Cleveland and Cubs shows that starting pitching is the most important aspect of a teams success. I see teams trading for starting pitching this winter with a weak free agent market.
The Mets should look into Turner or Prado, as well as Ramos.
Chapman is 1st on the list, the guy is deadly.