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Orlando Arcia

Anthopoulos: Braves Expect Payroll To Rise

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Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos conducted an end-of-season media session with reporters this morning. Most notably, the GM indicated he expected player payroll to increase going into next year. A rising payroll doesn’t mean the Braves will be especially active in free agency, as the club already has a lot of internal commitments.

“It’s gone up each year that I’ve been here,” Anthopoulos said (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “I know it’s not going to go down, I expect it to rise, but to what level, we’ll spend the offseason going through that. I view it opening day to opening day, because in-season things come up. … Is it a bottomless pit? Is it unlimited? Of course not. But every year we’ve set a new Braves high from a payroll standpoint. … We will be going up, I just can’t give you the amount.”

According to the calculations at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Braves entered the 2024 season with around $223MM in player salaries. Their estimated luxury tax number was much higher. A team’s tax figure is calculated based on the average annual values of their contracts, leading to a higher tax number than raw payroll for an Atlanta team that has a lot of backloaded extensions. Cot’s estimated the Braves’ tax hit around $279MM, though Anthopoulos confirmed shortly after the trade deadline that Atlanta was narrowly below the $277MM threshold that marks the third tier of penalization. It’s the second straight year in which the Braves will pay the luxury tax.

The Braves seem prepared to go over the threshold for a third consecutive season in 2025. That’d entail paying a higher price for repeat payors. Atlanta would pay a 50% tax on their first $20MM above next year’s $241MM base threshold. That’d jump to 62% for the following $20MM with further penalties if they pushed past the $281MM mark.

According to RosterResource, the Braves already have around $180MM in player salaries (not CBT obligations) on the books for 2025. They’re planning to exercise a trio of club options that’ll tack on another $31.25MM. That puts the team at roughly $211.25MM. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects their arbitration class to add roughly $10MM more — assuming they tender Ramón Laureano and move on from Cavan Biggio. Rounding out the roster with minimum salary players would put them close to last year’s estimated Opening Day payroll before accounting for outside acquisitions.

Anthopoulos and his staff could create some payroll room via trade. Jorge Soler is set for respective $13MM salaries over the next two seasons. Soler hit well down the stretch when the Braves acquired him at the deadline to bolster a scuffling offense. He’s not an ideal fit on a roster that already has Marcell Ozuna locked in at designated hitter, though. Ronald Acuña Jr. should be back early in the season in right field. If the Braves retain Laureano for his final arbitration season, trading Soler and offloading at least a chunk of his contract would make sense.

At the same time, the Braves are going to need some kind of additions. They could lose Max Fried and A.J. Minter to free agency. Charlie Morton is also an impending free agent and might decide to retire. Getting Spencer Strider back midway through the year would help compensate for losing Fried, while the bullpen still looks strong even if Minter departs. Still, there’d be some questions about the rotation depth behind a strong front four of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach and (once healthy) Strider.

Atlanta could look for an upgrade over Orlando Arcia at shortstop as well. A free agent splash for Willy Adames would be out of character for a front office that has typically done its heavy lifting via trades and extensions. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post floated the Braves as a possible Adames landing spot earlier this week.) There aren’t many obvious shortstop trade candidates, particularly if the Blue Jays elect to hang onto Bo Bichette for his last year of club control. Anthopoulos and his staff have had a knack for pulling surprise trades over the years, though, making it difficult to pinpoint exactly where they’ll look.

One area that doesn’t seem it’ll have any turnover: the coaching staff. Manager Brian Snitker is under contract through the end of next season. The 68-year-old confirmed right after the team was eliminated in the NL Wild Card Series that he’ll continue managing (X link via Justin Toscano of the Journal-Constitution). Anthopoulos said this morning that he expects the entire coaching staff to remain in place.

NL East Notes: Schwarber, Harper, Luzardo, Arcia

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The Phillies were shut out in today’s 6-0 loss to the Braves, dropping Philadelphia to a respectable 5-4 record in its nine games without injured sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.  The good news is that at least Schwarber will be activated from the 10-day injured list for the Phils’ next game on Tuesday, and Harper seems on track to be activated at some point this week, even if Tuesday is still up in the air for the former NL MVP.

Both players ran the bases prior to today’s game, with MLB.com reporting that Schwarber has now been running at full intensity for two straight days, while Harper was running “either at or close to 100% intensity.”  Schwarber was sidelined with a groin strain and Harper with a hamstring strain, so baserunning is essentially the final step in assessing whether either player is fully ready to return.  While neither injury was thought to be overly serious, it is obviously a great sign for the Phillies that the initial assessment seems to be accurate, so the team won’t have any longer-term concerns about two key members of their everyday lineup.

More from around the NL East…

  • Even though Jesus Luzardo is on the 60-day injured list, teams are still checking in with the Marlins about the left-hander’s availability, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.  Luzardo’s initial IL placement took place on June 19, so he won’t be back until August 18 at the earliest as he recovers from a lumbar stress reaction.  If Luzardo was indeed able to return around that date and return in good form, there would be plenty of time for the southpaw to contribute to a contender for the remainder of the season, yet naturally his health situation would make for some tricky trade negotiations with Miami.  From the Marlins’ perspective, it is hard to imagine they would agree to sell low on one of their top trade chips, especially since Luzardo is still under team control through the 2026 season.
  • Orlando Arcia entered today’s action hitting .209/.245/.332 over 314 plate appearances, and with the lowest wRC+ (58) of any qualified hitter in baseball.  It has been an ugly dropoff for a player who had roughly a league-average 101 wRC+ for the Braves in 2022-23, and Arcia was even an All-Star last season after moving into the starting shortstop role.  Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that the Braves are seemingly okay with letting Arcia try to find himself at the plate, since he is at least continuing to deliver strong glovework at the shortstop position.  While Atlanta has been aggressive in promoting prospects in recent years, Toscano doesn’t think the team is considering bringing the hot-hitting Nacho Alvarez up to the majors as a potential replacement for Arcia, as Alvarez only just made his Triple-A debut last month.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2023 All-Star Game this evening. This year’s All-Star Game will take place at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park on July 11. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

American League

National League

* Currently on injured list with sprained toe

The Braves’ Shortstop Gamble Is Paying Off

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The Braves entered the 2023 season with a question mark at shortstop. Atlanta didn’t seem to strongly pursue a reunion with Dansby Swanson over the winter. Only the front office knows how much that was due to payroll constraints versus a genuine belief in their other options. In any case, the Braves have picked up right where Swanson left off.

Atlanta shortstops have combined for a .310/.365/.422 batting line. Only the Rangers (where Corey Seager is playing at an MVP level) have gotten a stronger on-base percentage out of the position. Atlanta shortstops are eighth in slugging and fourth in overall offense as measured by wRC+.

If one were told three months ago that Braves’ shortstops were performing at this level, they’d probably have assumed Vaughn Grissom hit the ground running. The 22-year-old broke into the majors with a .291/.353/.440 showing as a rookie last season, filling in for Ozzie Albies at second base while the latter was injured. Midway through Spring Training, Grissom appeared to be the favorite for the job, with rookie Braden Shewmake also garnering some attention amidst a strong Spring Training.

The Braves went elsewhere. Atlanta made the surprising decision to option Grissom and Shewmake at the same time a week before Opening Day. That signaled a commitment to veteran Orlando Arcia, who had played a utility role since being acquired from the Brewers in a lopsided 2021 trade. It marked the first time he’d be in an Opening Day starting lineup since a four-year run as Milwaukee’s shortstop from 2017-20.

Arcia has seized the opportunity in a way few would’ve seen coming. He’s hitting .341/.400/.489 in exactly 200 trips to the plate. He lost a couple weeks with an early-season microfracture in his left wrist, but he’s started 52 of 73 games. Arcia was off to a .333/.400/.511 start before the injury. He has been no worse for wear since returning in early May, putting up a .343/.400/.482 line over the last six weeks.

The 28-year-old isn’t going to continue hitting at quite this level. He’s not going to maintain a .406 average on balls in play all year. He’s hitting .363 on ground-balls, a top ten figure in MLB that’s probably going to regress. It’d be too simplistic to wave away his strong first few months as a complete product of ball in play fortune, though.

Arcia’s plate discipline profile is the best of his career thus far. During his time with Milwaukee, he had a very aggressive approach that kept his walk rates near the bottom of the league. Not consistently swinging at good pitches was a big reason he never developed into the quality everyday shortstop the Brewers anticipated when he was coming through their system as a top prospect.

As he has gotten more experience, he’s become more patient. Arcia has swung around 45% of the time over the past two years after typically offering at over half the pitches he’d seen early in his career. He’s had a particularly discerning strike zone feel this season. He has chased less than 28% of pitches outside the zone, a career-low mark that’s four percentage points better than league average. He’s swinging at a typical rate at pitches within the zone, though. Laying off pitches off the plate without getting passive and letting too many hittable offerings pass by is a tough balance to strike.

Arcia has found it. Not coincidentally, he’s hitting the ball with more authority than usual. This season’s 45.8% hard contact percentage (batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ MPH) is a personal best. A lot of that contact is coming on the ground, so he’s still not making a huge power impact. Combining average or better walk and strikeout numbers with a lot of hard, low-angle batted balls is a recipe for getting on base consistently. Arcia isn’t going to sustain a .400 OBP, but he looks capable of keeping his on-base a fair bit higher than the .312 league mark for shortstops.

Alongside the offense, Arcia has stepped back into regular shortstop duty without missing a beat defensively. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have pegged his glove as four runs above average in a little less than 500 innings. He rated as a solid defender for most of his time with the Brewers but hadn’t played shortstop with regularity in three years because Swanson almost never missed a game. A couple seasons of multi-positional work don’t appear to have taken any toll on his glove at the infield’s most demanding spot.

The all-around production has Arcia among the top 30 position players in both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR even with his three-week injury absence. Even if he falls off that pace as the BABIP declines, Arcia has provided the Braves more than they could’ve anticipated in the post-Swanson era. The top of Atlanta’s lineup is loaded with star talent. They only needed some stability at shortstop once they let Swanson go. Arcia has gone well beyond that.

In the process, he has quieted questions about promoting the younger players. Grissom and Shewmake each saw a little MLB action while he was hurt but have spent the majority of the season in Triple-A. Shewmake is having a dreadful offensive season there; Grissom is hitting well (.314/.380/.466 with an excellent 13.5% strikeout rate) while getting an extended run to try to improve his reputation as a middle infield defender. While shortstop once looked like a potential deadline concern for the front office, that’s no longer the case.

The final touch for the team: Arcia’s affordability. He and the club agreed to a restructured contract on Opening Day that could keep him in Atlanta through 2026. He’s making $2.3MM this season, followed by respective $2MM salaries for the next two years. There’s a matching ’26 club option that comes with a $100K buyout.

That’s fine value for the utility role he’d played between 2021-22. It’s a bargain for a quality everyday shortstop. Arcia is playing like one right now, one of the many reasons Atlanta is in pole position for a seventh consecutive division title.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Reinstate Orlando Arcia, Option Vaughn Grissom

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The Braves have reinstated infielder Orlando Arcia from the 10-day injured list, per a team announcement. In a corresponding move, the club optioned shortstop Vaughn Grissom to Triple-A. Arcia had been out with a microfracture in his left wrist since mid-April.

The move comes as something of a surprise, as Arcia will return to the club without a rehab assignment after reportedly beginning to take dry swings just a few days ago. Arcia opened the season as the club’s regular shortstop prior to his injury and got off to a hot start with a .333/.400/.511 slash line with a 149 wRC+ in 13 games. That hot start earned him a contract extension that will keep the 28-year-old under team control through the 2026 season.

Given his success at the plate this season prior to his injury, it seems reasonable to expect Arcia to once again get the lion’s share of playing time at shortstop. Prospect Braden Shewmake was promoted recently and received a start at shortstop, but with Arcia back on the roster seems likely to settle into an infield utility role behind Arcia, second baseman Ozzie Albies and third baseman Austin Riley. The 25-year-old Shewmake has yet to record his first hit in the major leagues, but saw a power surge early this season in the minor leagues, as his five home runs in just 110 plate appearances nearly matches the seven he hit last year in 307 plate appearances. Still, his overall Triple-A slash line of .255/.307/.415 casts him as a glove-first option in the big leagues who doesn’t figure to hit much.

With Arcia returned and Shewmake taking up a utility role in the infield, the 22-year-old Grissom is left heading to Triple-A as the odd man out. Grissom made his major league debut last season, filling in for Albies at second base, and impressed in 41 games with a slash line of .291/.353/.440 that was good for a wRC+ of 121. Though his 21.8% strikeout rate and high .350 BABIP left room for concern, the biggest question mark surrounding Grissom was his defense, which he spent the offseason trying to improve with infield coach Ron Washington.

Unfortunately for both Grissom and the Braves, the young shortstop’s start to the season has been something of a disaster. Grissom has taken a significant step back at the plate, with a slash line of just .277/.314/.308 in 70 plate appearances that leaves him 29% below league average by measure of wRC+. Meanwhile, his defense has been a major concern, with six errors in 18 starts at shortstop and defensive metrics that give him concerning ratings across the board. In particular, Grissom’s -4 Outs Above Average leave him in just the third percentile among MLB fielders and cast him the third worst defensive shortstop in the majors, ahead of only Enrique Hernandez of the Red Sox and CJ Abrams of the Nationals. Given Grissom’s pronounced struggles, it seems reasonable to expect him to work on things at the Triple-A level for the foreseeable future, unless another injury around the infield forces the club’s hand.

NL East Notes: Scherzer, Arcia, Sosa, Suarez, Harper

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Max Scherzer was scheduled to start for the Mets on Sunday against the Athletics, but Jose Butto will now take the hill tomorrow and Scherzer will be pushed to Wednesday.  Mets manager Buck Showalter told the New York Post’s Mike Puma (Twitter links) and other reporters that Scherzer has some “lingering soreness” in his side, though Scherzer said that scans of the area below his scapula didn’t reveal any structural damage.

Butto was tentatively expected to receive a spot start at some point during the Mets’ road trip, so today’s news seems mostly precautionary in nature, notwithstanding Scherzer’s injury history.  There might also be a bit of gamesmanship at play, since rather than face the struggling A’s, Scherzer is now lined up to face the Dodgers on Wednesday in a game with more implications on the NL playoff race.

More from around the NL East…

  • Orlando Arcia’s microfracture in his left wrist will be re-evaluated in 10-14 days, the Braves told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).  Arcia was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday and will obviously miss more than the minimum number of days, but a more thorough timeline won’t be known until Arcia is next examined by doctors.  Arcia entered the season with the twin momentum of a new contract extension and a role as Atlanta’s starting shortstop, and he was hitting a hefty .333/.400/.511 over 50 plate appearances prior to his injury.
  • Edmundo Sosa left today’s game due to discomfort in his lower back, according to the Phillies.  Since Philadelphia was trailing 8-0 to the Reds at the time of Sosa’s departure in the bottom of the sixth, it could be that Sosa was just being given a rest from the last few innings of what ended up as a 13-0 rout.  If Sosa did have to miss any time, it would further stretch the depth of a Phillies infield that is already missing Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall, as Sosa was seeing more action at third base while Alec Bohm had moved to first base.
  • In other Phillies injury news, Ranger Suarez will throw to live hitters during a simulated game on Tuesday, Scott Lauper of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.  Suarez has yet to pitch this season due to forearm inflammation, and he’ll be facing at least prominent batter during that sim game in the form of Bryce Harper, who will face live pitching for the first time in his rehab from Tommy John surgery.  Initially given a return timeline of around the All-Star break, there continue to be hints that Harper might be back sooner, including the fact that both Harper and manager Rob Thomson don’t feel Harper will need a minor league rehab assignment before re-entering Philadelphia’s lineup.  Given the Trajekt Arc video projection system installed at Citizens Bank Park, Harper can somewhat replicate facing MLB-level pitching during his batting cage work, rather than face live minor league pitching during a rehab assignment.

Braves Place Orlando Arcia On IL, Recall Vaughn Grissom

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April 14: As expected, Atlanta announced today that Arcia has been placed on the 10-day injured list with Grissom recalled in a corresponding move.

April 13: The Braves announced today that shortstop Orlando Arcia has a microfracture in his left wrist. They did not provide a timeline on his absence but said he will be placed on the injured list. They have tonight off so that transaction won’t need to take place until tomorrow. Mark Bowman of MLB.com relays that Vaughn Grissom is not in the lineup for Triple-A Gwinnett tonight, making it possible he will be recalled, though that’s just speculation at this point. The club also announced that Ian Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery, a development that had been reported on earlier this week.

Arcia was hit by a pitch on his left wrist during last night’s game, a 98 mph fastball from Hunter Greene of the Reds. Though Arcia initially stayed in the game to run the bases, he was later removed and replaced by Ehire Adrianza. X-rays done last night were negative but the club announced today that an MRI and CT scan revealed the microfracture.

This is the latest plot twist in the Atlanta shortstop battle, a storyline that has had many since the end of the previous season. Dansby Swanson had held that job since 2016 but reached free agency and signed with the Cubs. It never seemed like Atlanta had much interest in meeting Swanson’s asking price to return, seeming to have confidence that Grissom could step up to replace him. The youngster had shortstop experience in the minors but prospect evaluators questioned his long-term viability there and he mostly played second base during his major league debut last year.

It was a risky move for a competitive club to leave a premier position open for a 22-year-old player with legitimate doubts about how likely he was to succeed, but Arcia was also around as the more-seasoned fallback option. He finished last year with 642 games of big league experience. He had been a full-time shortstop earlier in his career with the Brewers but had transitioned into more of a utility role in recent years.

Towards the end of spring, Grissom was optioned to the minors, with Arcia winning the Opening Day job. The latter was off to a strong start here in 2023, hitting .333/.400/.511 through 13 games. He wasn’t going to sustain that kind of pace all year, given his career batting line of .245/.298/.372, but it’s still a frustrating development for him to be shut down when he was in a nice groove.

Though nothing is official yet, it seems like Grissom will now get a shot at stepping up and seeing how he fares. There’s not much doubt about his offensive prowess, as he hit .291/.353/.440 in his debut last year and has a .366/.458/.585 line through 10 Triple-A games this year. The bigger question will be with his glove, which will undoubtedly get a lot of attention in the coming weeks. Depending how things play out between now and Arcia’s return to health, Atlanta will potentially have a difficult decision about how to proceed.

Braves To Extend Orlando Arcia

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The Braves and shortstop Orlando Arcia are reportedly in agreement on a three-year, $7.3MM extension that includes a club option for the 2026 season, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. The deal replaces Arcia’s previous contract, under which he was set to earn $1.3MM in 2023 with a $2MM club option with a $100K buyout for next season. Instead, Arcia will earn $2.3MM in 2023 and $2MM in each of 2024 and 2025, with a $1MM buyout on the 2026 option, which Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports is worth $2MM.

Arcia’s new deal will cover his age 28 through age 30 seasons, with the club option giving the Braves team control through age 31. That’s two additional years of team control for the Braves, who had already added an extra year of team control with Arcia’s previous contract, signed in 2021. With an AAV of just $2.43MM, Arcia’s new deal should have minimal impact on Atlanta’s luxury tax standing going forward, though it does actually slightly raise the club’s 2023 luxury tax payroll, as Arcia’s previous deal held an AAV of just $1.5MM.

Since the Braves acquired Arcia from the Brewers early in the 2021 season, he’s acted in a part-time utility role for the club, slashing .237/.308/.398 in 99 games while logging time at shortstop, third base, second base, and in left field. In 2023, Arcia enters the season as the club’s everyday shortstop following the departure of Dansby Swanson, with youngsters Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Either could realistically supplant Arcia as the starter at shortstop in 2023, pushing him into his more familiar bench role.

Prior to joining the Braves, Arcia had previous played for the Brewers on an everyday basis from 2017 to 2020, though he slashed just .248/.297/.367 in his 483 games across those four seasons, good for a wRC+ of just 72. Over that time, Arcia was generally solid with the glove, though defensive metrics were mixed on his performance on a season-to-season basis. While he combined for +5 DRS and +8 OAA in those four seasons, that includes highs of +7 DRS and +8 OAA in 2018 and lows of -6 DRS and -5 OAA from 2019-2020.

Judging by his previous work in a full-time role with the Brewers, Arcia figures to be a below-average bat with an above-average glove at short for the Braves this year. That being said, there were positive signs in Arcia’s 68-game performance in 2022 that could indicate a new level of offensive production closer to average. In 2022, Arcia slashed .244/.316/.416, good for a slightly above average wRC+ of 104 despite a depressed BABIP of just .278.

Those gains came on the back of improvements to both his walk rate and ISO compared to his 2017-2020 seasons with the Brewers. His walk rate jumped from 6.5% over that time to 9.0% last year while his ISO jumped from .119 to .172. That latter feat is particularly impressive given his full-time role with the Brewers came in a particularly high-scoring run environment compared to the 2022 season. If Arcia’s 2022 improvements hold over in a larger sample this year, he could prove to be an above-average two-way regular for the Braves in 2023. Should that not prove to be the case, the Braves will still have a long-term, quality bench option at their disposal going forward who’s still on the right side of 30.

Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake

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The Braves will option infielders Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake to Triple-A, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Both had been in line for the Opening Day shortstop job in Atlanta, but it seems that will now go to Orlando Arcia. David O’Brien of The Athletic relays that Arcia will get the starting gig with Ehire Adrianza as the utility infielder. Adrianza is not currently on the 40-man roster. The Braves subsequently announced the moves as part of a larger batch of roster cuts, including outfielders Jordan Luplow, Eli White and right-hander Nick Anderson.

The Braves went into this offseason with a shortstop vacancy for the first time in years, as Dansby Swanson has held down that job since late 2016. Swanson reached free agency this offseason and was considered one of the “Big Four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Despite that robust class of shortstops, Atlanta seemingly had little interest in either re-signing Swanson or going after anyone else. Eventually, the offseason came and went with the club’s big move being the trade for catcher Sean Murphy, who was later extended.

It seemed the club was satisfied with its internal shortstop options, with Grissom and Arcia the favorites for the role. Grissom had made his debut last year when he was just 21 years old, largely filling in at second base for the injured Ozzie Albies. He hit well in his first 156 plate appearances, producing a batting line of .291/.353/.440 for a wRC+ of 121. However, that may have been buoyed by a red hot start, as he hit .347/.398/.558 through September 7 but just .174/.264/.196 after.

Nonetheless, it was an encouraging start for such a young player and the club seemed to be a big believer in his abilities. Though he largely played second in his MLB debut, he was a shortstop in the minors. But that didn’t mean moving back to the other side of the bag was an obvious choice, as prospect evaluators had long raised questions about his ability to stick at short. It seems the club decided it was worth pursuing regardless of those concerns, as they tasked coach Ron Washington with working on Grissom’s shortstop defense this offseason. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos discussed the situation in January, after Swanson had signed with the Cubs.

“I can see how the scouting community might have questions about Vaughn. I had questions about Vaughn when I first saw him,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “And I’ve been wrong plenty of times. The difference is we have a guy in Ron Washington who’s unbelievable with this stuff. He wouldn’t just say something to say it. … And, look, we don’t know how Vaughn’s going to hit. He’s got to earn the job. Orlando Arcia can do it, too. But Wash really believes in Vaughn. We believe in Vaughn, too, but we’re going to go with who we think the expert in that area is, and I don’t know anybody better in the game than Ron.”

For most of the winter, it seemed it would be a two-horse race for the job between Grissom and Arcia, but there was a late charge from Shewmake. It was reported just yesterday that Shewmake’s hot spring was making things interesting. His prospect profile was essentially the inverse of Grissom’s, as his glovework is graded much stronger than his bat. But he hit .323/.382/.452 in spring action and seemed to give himself some momentum to take the job.

However, it now seems that neither of the youngsters will get the job, at least here at the end of spring. With Grissom and Shewmake both getting optioned today, it seems they’ve decided to go with the veteran in Arcia. Though he is more established, with 642 games of major league experience, there’s still risk with the 28-year-old. He’s coming off a fairly solid season as the club’s utility infielder, hitting .244/.316/.416 for a wRC+ of 104. However, the rest of his work at the plate is less impressive, as he had hit .242/.293/.363 coming into the year for a wRC+ of 70. He also hasn’t had a full-time shortstop gig since 2019, when defensive metrics gave him poor reviews and he was pushed into a utility role over the past three years.

This is merely a temporary move and the club could quickly call up Grissom or Shewmake early on in the season. However, it’s still a surprising result given the club’s recent history. They’ve shown a strong willingness to be aggressive with their young players, with both Grissom and Michael Harris II skipping Triple-A last year, going straight from Double-A to the bigs. The club then avoided free agents all winter, seeming to have little interest in either the marquee players or even a modest deal for someone like Elvis Andrus. It seems they’ve decided Grissom and Shewmake need more time and are now left with Arcia as their top option at short, at least for the time being.

The move could have service time implications for the younger players, as Shewmake’s clock has yet to start ticking and Grissom has a tally of 57 days. Whether either of them can reach the one-year mark this season will depend upon how long they eventually spend in the minors. It’s possible to earn a full year of service time even while spending time in the minors if a youngster finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year balloting, but they also have to appear at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline. Neither Grissom or Shewmake are on any of those three lists at the moment.

With Arcia securing the starting gig, Adrianza will apparently need to be added to the roster to take the backup infield job. He hit just .175/.264/.206 last year but is capable of playing any position other than catcher.

Turning to the other moves, Luplow and White were both in contention for a job backing up the starting outfield trio of Ronald Acuña Jr., Eddie Rosario and Harris. They seem to have been bumped out of that contest, at least for Opening Day. That perhaps will allow Sam Hilliard and Kevin Pillar to secure jobs on the bench. Nick Anderson was in the running for a bullpen job but will start the season in the minors.

Atlanta will need to make some roster moves in the wake of all this, but they may have already gotten a head start on that. Neither of Adrianza or Pillar are on the roster and it looks like the fifth starter job will go to one of Dylan Dodd or Jared Shuster, with neither of them being on the roster either. However, they recently opened a couple of spots when they lost Dennis Santana on waivers to the Twins and outrighted Jackson Stephens. They can also open a couple more by transferring Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day IL, with both pitchers likely out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

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