Ivan Nova

Ivan Nova’s tenure with the White Sox began in shaky fashion, as he allowed five or more runs in four of his first six starts to the season. However, the former Yankees and Pirates righty has settled into a run of success and tells Doug Padilla of the Chicago Sun-Times that if the opportunity to return to the White Sox presents itself, he would take it.

There’s no guarantee that the Sox would make Nova an offer to return, but the 32-year-old’s performance with the club since a miserable start to the season has been rather solid. Nova’s past month has garnered plenty of attention, as the righty owns a pristine 0.49 ERA over his past 37 innings (including an improbable shutout of the Astros in his most recent trip to the hill). The right-hander attributes his hot streak to “controlling my command a little bit better and making a little bit better pitches that what I was making earlier in the year,” though a .186 average on balls in play and a nearly 92 percent strand rate have buoyed his production. To his credit, Nova’s walk rate has dropped over this current stretch, and his hard-hit rate has plummeted, so there’s clearly some truth to the fact that he’s refined his command.

Beyond that, Nova’s numbers have somewhat quietly been pretty solid over a larger sample dating back to mid-May. He’s only allowed more than four runs on two occasions in his past 16 starts, and one of those featured multiple unearned runs. Nova has averaged nearly 6 1/3 innings per start in that time and posted a 3.14 ERA along the way. His 5.1 K/9 mark is obviously nowhere near the league average in today’s strikeout-charged brand of ball, but he’s averaged just 1.9 BB/9 in that time and managed a reasonable (again, by 2019 standards) 1.26 HR/9. He’s also kept the ball on the ground at a 50.2 percent clip.

Whether those 100 1/3 inning generate enough interest from the White Sox remains to be seen. Nova has a 4.70 FIP even in that 16-start stretch, so there’s some reason to take the bottom-line numbers with a grain of salt. Still, the White Sox have minimal certainty with regard to next year’s rotation. Lucas Giolito will front the group, but Reynaldo Lopez has yet to establish himself as a viable big league starter. Dylan Cease is still looking for his first run of sustained MLB success. Michael Kopech will be returning from Tommy John surgery but has made only four MLB starts. Carlos Rodon isn’t likely to be a factor until the summer, as he also underwent Tommy John surgery back in May.

It’s easy to dream on that quintet, but it’s also not realistic to expect any group of up-and-coming pitchers to hit their stride in unison. There’s room for Nova to return to the staff if the Sox value him as a veteran leader who can provide some stability as a fifth starter. He’d very likely be looking at a cut from this season’s $8.5MM salary, but as a low-cost option who’s already familiar with the coaching staff and many of the team’s young players, Nova could have some appeal.

Then again, there’s an equal if not stronger argument that the team should be prepared to move on sooner rather than later. Nova’s recent success has surely been noted throughout the league, and it’s extremely difficult for teams to deepen their rosters at the moment. It’s possible that were Nova to hit outright waivers, another club would claim the remaining $1.95MM on this season’s salary and save the Sox that chunk of cash. Chicago could always try to re-sign Nova in the winter if desired, but with so many high-upside arms ticketed for rotation auditions, perhaps a low-ceiling veteran isn’t the type of winter addition the Sox will seek. The ChiSox have a mere $14MM in guaranteed salary on next year’s payroll, so they can afford to pursue any starting pitcher on the market as aggressively as they wish.

This has been a season to forget for veteran right-hander Ivan Nova, whom the White Sox acquired from the Pirates last winter to competently soak up innings. It wasn’t an unreasonable expectation on Chicago’s part that Nova would provide its rotation with some much-needed stability. After all, Nova was coming off three straight seasons in which he amassed 160-plus frames and recorded an ERA in the low fours. That type of production would’ve been welcome for this year’s White Sox, who have gotten very little from any starter except Lucas Giolito. That includes the 32-year-old Nova, their leader in starts (21) and innings (119 2/3).

Even after firing a one-run complete game against the Marlins on Monday, Nova has only managed a 5.49 ERA/5.34 FIP this season. And yet, despite the immense difficulties Nova has encountered in 2019, he seems to be garnering interest from elsewhere with the trade deadline a week away. “Many scouts” have been “looking at” the struggling Nova, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, while Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times also identifies him as a potential trade chip.

When it comes to starters, pitchers the caliber of Madison Bumgarner, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman tend to monopolize the headlines at this time of year. Back-end innings eaters do have value to teams pushing for playoff spots, though, which could make Nova movable for the White Sox. The problem is that the 2019 version of Nova hasn’t fit the bill.  Even looking past Nova’s shoddy run prevention, there isn’t much to like aside from a low walk rate (2.33 BB/9) and a solid groundball percentage (47.0). His home run-to-fly ball rate, 19.5, ranks fifth worst among 75 qualified starters. His strikeout rate, 5.79 per nine, sits third from the bottom. Furthermore, just 14 starters have posted a worse swinging-strike rate (9.0 percent).

Statcast doesn’t care for the Chicago iteration of Nova, either. In fact, he doesn’t check in any better than the majors’ 37th percentile in mean fastball velocity (92.3 mph), strikeout percentage, exit velocity, hard-hit rate against, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage or expected weighted on-base average. While Nova’s .357 xwOBA is better than the J.D. Martinez-esque .370 real wOBA that hitters have pummeled him for, it’s not by much.

Based on what Nova has done this year, the soon-to-be free agent doesn’t appear capable of boosting anyone’s rotation down the stretch. But could he aid a team in a relief role? It doesn’t look like it. Batters have smacked Nova for a .361 wOBA the first time through the order, with righties (.367) and lefties (.365) abusing him to near-matching degrees. Nova also isn’t cheap – he’s making $8.5MM, roughly $3MM of which is still on the way – so Chicago will likely have to eat most or all of his salary to have any hope of dealing him. Even if the White Sox do that, they may have trouble finding a taker.