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Ivan Nova

NL Notes: Darvish, Pirates, Marlins

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The Cubs are unsure if injured right-hander Yu Darvish will return before next month’s All-Star break, manager Joe Maddon told Patrick Mooney of The Athletic and other reporters Sunday. Darvish has been on the shelf for two weeks with right tricep tendinitis, and even though he doesn’t have any structural damage, he’ll end up sitting out nearly two months (if not even more time) if he doesn’t come back prior to the July 17 All-Star Game. Of course, in an ideal world for Darvish and the Cubs, he’d be representing the team in the Midsummer Classic after landing a six-year, $126MM guarantee in free agency over the winter. Instead, not only has Darvish endured multiple DL stints (one for the flu), but the 31-year-old has posted a career-worst 4.95 ERA/4.80 FIP over 40 innings when he has taken the mound.

Here’s more from the NL…

  • The Pirates activated righty Ivan Nova from the disabled list and optioned fellow righty Nick Kingham to Triple-A prior to Sunday’s game. Nova returned after a finger injury shelved him for two weeks. His presence is unfortunate for Kingham, who continued his strong rookie season Saturday with 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball in a loss to the Cubs. Overall, the 26-year-old Kingham has pitched to a 3.82 ERA with 35 strikeouts against seven walks in 35 1/3 innings (six starts).
  • Additionally, the Pirates optioned utility player Adam Frazier to make room for the addition of catcher Jacob Stallings from Triple-A. It’s a somewhat surprising demotion for Frazier, who offered league-average offensive production (.283/.347/.402) over 614 plate appearances from 2016-17 while seeing action at several positions. Frazier’s defensive versatility has continued this year, as he has lined up at second base and all three outfield spots, but his batting line has fallen to .237/.318/.356 in 152 PAs.
  • More on the Pirates, who promoted veteran infielder Jung Ho Kang from Single-A to Triple-A on Sunday, Liz Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. It’s an important development for Kang, who was a quality regular with the Bucs from 2015-16 but hasn’t played in the majors since then because of off-field problems. Kang racked up his his third DUI in his homeland of South Korea during the 2016-17 offseason, and he’s still on the restricted list as a result. Unsurprisingly, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said in April that Kang is likely down to “his last chance with us.”
  • The Marlins have removed Stan Meek as their vice president of scouting, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Meek was a confidant of previous owner Jeffrey Loria, having worked under him in Montreal before following him to Florida in 2002. The Marlins’ Meek-led drafts were “disastrous” in recent years, Passan observes, though Jon Heyman of FanRag points out that he did have some hits during his tenure in Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto. Given that Meek is signed through next season, he could stay in the organization in a different role, Heyman writes.

NL Notes: Nova, Hellickson, Murphy, Kemp

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Pirates righty Ivan Nova seems reasonably close to a return, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. He received good reports after throwing a pair of simulated innings, suggesting that his sprained ring finger won’t keep him out very long. Obviously the club will wait to see how he responds before moving things forward, but it seems reasonable to think that Nova could make it back in relatively short order given that he last pitched on May 24th. The Bucs would certainly like not only for Nova to return, but also for him to turn things around on the bump. He carries a 4.96 ERA through 61 2/3 frames, though his peripherals have been in his typical range and suggest he has been a bit unfortunate.

Here are some more recent notes from the National League:

  • The Nationals placed righty Jeremy Hellickson on the 10-day DL with a hamstring strain, but indications are that it’s minor, as Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. It’s not even clear that the Nats will need to find a fill-in starter, as they won’t need an extra rotation piece for a decent stretch. The DL placement, then, will actually leave the team with some added roster flexibility for the time being. Of course, it’d be preferable if there wasn’t an injury issue at all. Hellickson has been a gem of a minor-league signing thus far for D.C., turning in 43 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball over nine starts.
  • In a health matter of equal or greater significance for the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman covers the latest on second baseman Daniel Murphy. Though it seems he’s in solid form with the bat, Murphy is still not looking to be at full speed on his legs. For the Nats — and, particularly, their medical staff — there are some tough questions as to how to bring Murphy along. It seems uncertain at this point whether the club can really expect him to function as a full-fledged, regular second baseman this year, which could pose some rather complicated roster questions. The situation is also concerning for the 33-year-old Murphy, of course, who had seemed primed to hit the open market this winter as a high-end hitter.
  • What’s most amazing about Matt Kemp’s remarkable two-month run with the Dodgers, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs writes, is not the fact that he’s off to a .344/.374/.568 slash. (Indeed, it seems there’s reason to anticipate those numbers coming back to earth, given his .400 BABIP.) Rather, it’s the fact that Kemp is suddenly grading as a solid defender in the corners, allowing him to rack up an impressive 1.8 fWAR in just under two hundred plate appearances. Sullivan examines the defensive component in an interesting piece that’s well worth a full read.

NL Injury Notes: Kershaw, Bucs, Panik, Mets

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Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw said Saturday that he’ll be ready to rejoin their rotation in five days, though it’ll be up to the team whether that happens, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Kershaw’s four-inning simulated game on Saturday went well enough that he may be able to avoid a rehab assignment, despite having been on the disabled list since May 7 with biceps tendinitis. The left-hander is part of a large group of important Dodgers who have missed significant time this year, thus helping to explain the reigning NL champions’ 23-27 start. LA has won seven of its past eight, however, and is within a manageable 3.5 games of first-place Colorado in the NL West.

  • Pirates starter Ivan Nova has a strained ligament in his right index finger and may be headed to the DL, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic tweets. To prepare for Nova’s potential absence, the Pirates had their Triple-A affiliate pull righty Nick Kingham from his start after just one inning on Friday, per Mason Wittner of MLB.com. The 26-year-old Kingham made the first three big league starts of his career earlier this season and held his own, with a a 3.44 ERA/2.56 FIP and outstanding strikeout and walk rates (10.31 K/9, .98 BB/9) across 18 1/3 innings. While Nova hasn’t been nearly as effective as Kingham, he has logged playable numbers over 11 starts and 61 1/3 frames (4.96 ERA/4.28 FIP, 6.86 K/9, 1.46 BB/9 and a 50.7 percent groundball rate).
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is on track to come off the DL next weekend, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group suggests. In the meantime, he’ll open a four- or five-game rehab assignment on Monday. Panik will end up missing upward of a month after undergoing left thumb surgery in late April. He hasn’t played since April 27, and fill-in Alen Hanson has been out for two weeks, leaving the Giants with the underwhelming duo of Kelby Tomlinson and Miguel Gomez as their options at the keystone.
  • Catcher Kevin Plawecki could rejoin the Mets on Monday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. Plawecki landed on the shelf with a hairline fracture in his left hand on April 13, when the Mets also announced that fellow backstop Travis d’Arnaud would undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery. New York then received terrible behind-the-plate productions from subs Tomas Nido and Jose Lobaton in the ensuing few weeks, leading it to acquire Devin Mesoraco from the Reds for righty Matt Harvey in a May 8 trade. The deal has worked out well for the Mets thus far, as Mesoraco has performed respectably enough that they’ll be able to ease Plawecki back into action when he returns, DiComo notes.

Central Notes: Cards, Hosmer, Rodon, Nova

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The broad health arena appears to offer great potential for competitive advantage to individual MLB organizations. We have heard of medical and dietary advancements for various teams, for example, and there’s surely lots going on that isn’t being discussed fully in public. For the Cardinals, one area of focus is on training, but it’s all happening as part of a broader initiative, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The club is building up a “department of performance” that will combine training, medical, and other related functions under one roof.

Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:

  • Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer tells Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that he’s not looking for changes to break out of his early-season slump. “I know I’ve been through it long enough now to realize you’ve just got to stick with your approach and it will change,” said Hosmer. Of course, the 27-year-old’s offensive malaise ties into a broader picture of uneven production over his seven-year MLB career, which has continued to raise questions about his earning power on the upcoming free-agent market. And as Dodd writes, Hosmer has several teammates who are also struggling quite a bit early on. If there’s a silver lining to the club’s 7-and-12 start, though, it’s the fact that the division leaders haven’t exactly sprinted out of the gates. Entering today’s action, the Indians and Tigers sit just 3.5 games up.
  • The White Sox were able to get a look at lefty Carlos Rodon yesterday, as he played catch under the watch of pitching coach Don Cooper, as Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago writes. But that doesn’t mean there’s any further clarity to the question of when the talented southpaw will be back to the majors. Details are murky on Rodon, whose biceps injury initially seemed minor. As Hayes notes, the club had initially hoped to see Rodon push past 200 frames this year, but that’s obviously no longer a viable target.
  • As righty Ivan Nova continues to produce good results for the Pirates, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at why things didn’t quite turn out that way when he was pitching for the Yankees. Though Nova did have his share of success in New York, he was dealt last summer on the cusp of free agency and re-signed in Pittsburgh after eleven impressive outings. He doesn’t blame the Yankees’ handling for his uneven stint there, but does say that a lack of confidence in his standing in his old organization was partially at fault. “It’s very different when you know that you’re going to pitch every five days, that’s for sure,” says Nova. He continued to explain that he previously would worry about being dropped to the bullpen or Triple-A, explaining: “It wasn’t because they told me what’s going to happen after. It was something I put in my mind. It was my mistake, my fault, to think that way instead of keeping positive all the time.”

Pirates Re-Sign Ivan Nova

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8:15pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets the financial breakdown of the deal. Nova receives a $2MM signing bonus and will take home $7MM in 2017 before earning salaries of $8.5MM in 2018 and $8.5MM in 2019.

12:30pm: The Pirates entered the offseason with uncertainty throughout their rotation but added some stability on Tuesday, announcing that they’ve re-signed right-hander Ivan Nova to a three-year contract. The deal reportedly guarantees Nova $26MM and allows the Legacy Agency client to earn up to an additional $2MM per year via incentives, meaning it can max out at $32MM over the three-year term.

[Updated Pirates roster and depth chart at Roster Resource]

The deal ensures that Nova, who turns 30 on January 12, will remain with the team that seemingly revived his career after he was dealt from the Yankees to the Pirates on August 1.  Nova underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and had struggled to regain his old form since, with middling numbers in 2015 and then a 4.90 ERA over 97 1/3 innings (starting 15 of 21 games) with New York in 2016.

In Pittsburgh, however, Nova became the latest reclamation project to thrive under pitching coach Ray Searage.  Nova posted a 3.06 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and an unreal 17.33 K/BB rate over 64 2/3 innings in a Pirates uniform, with just three walks against 52 strikeouts.  The move to a less-friendly ballpark for home run hitters was also a boon to Nova, who had long struggled to keep the ball in the yard over his career.  Always a strong ground-ball pitcher, Nova had a career-best 53.6% grounder rate over his 162 combined innings for both teams in 2016.

Ivan Nova

The stark contrast between the Yankees’ Nova and the Pirates’ Nova led to rather an interesting free agent case for the righty, as it wasn’t clear how teams would view that 64 2/3-inning sample against the rest of Nova’s career.  MLBTR ranked Nova 10th on our list of the winter’s Top 50 free agents with a projection of a four-year, $52MM deal given the severe lack of quality starting pitching and J.A. Happ’s successful 2016 season serving as a model of how a Pirates revival project could thrive outside of PNC Park.

Instead, Nova rather surprisingly ended up signing for less guaranteed money than what Happ received (three years, $36MM) from the Blue Jays last winter despite being over four years younger.  Looking at the big picture of this offseason, it seems that teams in general preferred to spend their pitching dollars on relievers as opposed to the thin starting piching market.  As FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal points out, only three other starters (Rich Hill, Edinson Volquez and Charlie Morton) signed multi-year deals this winter.  Even Jeremy Hellickson, thought to be the winter’s top available starter, accepted a qualifying offer to remain with the Phillies due to some concerns about his market, though Hellickson was rather a different case since he had draft pick compensation attached to his services.

Greg Genske, Nova’s agent, said in mid-November that his client had received offers in the three-year/$36MM range, though there was very little buzz about Nova on the rumor mill.  The only club significantly linked to Nova was, in fact, Pittsburgh.  The Pirates ardently tried to sign him to an extension prior to hitting free agency, though since Nova was reportedly asking for five years and $70MM to forego the open market, it isn’t surprising that the Bucs chose to wait.  Nova stated that he wanted to remain with the Pirates, so it’s possible he could have turned down a slightly larger offer in order to stay in a familiar and comfortable environment.

It certainly looks like a good signing for the Pirates, who went into the offseason prioritizing run prevention via both improved pitching and defense.  The Bucs add a veteran arm and (if Nova’s turn-around is for real) maybe even a possible ace to a young rotation headlined by Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, with Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Tyler Glasnow and Drew Hutchison battling it out for the final two rotation slots.

Robert Murray of FanRag Sports reported the agreement and the terms, while FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted word of the incentives in the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NL Central Notes: Wong, Nova, Brewers, Reds

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Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and manager Mike Matheny have both heaped praise onto second baseman Kolten Wong this winter, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, further suggesting that the 26-year-old isn’t likely to be traded. Wong’s name surfaced in rumors earlier this winter and has come up in speculation that has been linked to St. Louis’ reported interest in Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, but Mozeliak speaks highly of the former first-round pick. “I don’t make lineups but you have to have the understanding of patience,” said Mozeliak. “He’s such a talented defender and when your team is built around groundball pitching it’s nice to have that behind you.” Mozeliak and Matheny have both called Wong a “Gold Glove-caliber everyday second baseman,” Goold notes. Wong tells Goold that he’s trying his best to put a poor 2016 season behind him and has been working out with former teammate Jon Jay, focusing specifically on speed and explosiveness rather than adding muscle. Wong has $24.25MM remaining on the five-year, $25.5MM extension he inked last March.

More from the NL Central…

  • Ivan Nova called the decision to return to the Pirates “an easy choice” at today’s conference call announcing his signing, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Nova said that his preference all along was to return to Pittsburgh after enjoying his two-month stint there to close out the season and expressed excitement over the opportunity to return. GM Neal Huntington told the media that Nova has long been a target of the Pirates’ front office. “There are reasons we tried to acquire him in past offseasons, in past trade deadlines,” said Huntington. “…our hope was that this could turn into a prolonged relationship and a situation where he’d want to stay here. For us, thankfully, he did.” Huntington added that he’s still open to improving the rotation if it makes sense “in the big picture as well as the short-term” — the Pirates are rumored to have interest in White Sox ace Jose Quintana — but retaining Nova does give the Bucs some stability. Brink notes that Chad Kuhl appears to have an inside track on the fourth spot behind Nova, Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, though there’ll be a sizable competition for the final two rotation spots.
  • Speaking of competition, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy breaks down the Brewers’ upcoming closer battle, listing right-handers Corey Knebel, Carlos Torres and Jacob Barnes as internal options to pitch in the ninth inning. As McCalvy notes, the Brewers have seen Jeremy Jeffress, Will Smith and Tyler Thornburg — all traded in the past six months — emerge as late-inning arms that were acquired by means other than lucrative free-agent deals. The Brewers have been in contact with the representatives for seasoned free-agent closers, but there’s no guarantee they’ll sign any of the remaining available options (e.g. Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Greg Holland).
  • The Reds are monitoring the market for veteran catchers, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com in his latest Reds Inbox. Devin Mesoraco and Tucker Barnhart project to split time behind the dish in Cincinnati next year, but health has been a major factor for Mesoraco, who caught just 18 games from 2015-16 due largely to hip surgery. Rule 5 pick Stuart Turner (out of the Twins organization) is also an option, Sheldon notes, though he’s behind both Mesoraco and Barnhart. Sheldon also notes that he asked newly minted president of baseball ops Dick Williams about the possibility of signing Greg Holland recently, and while Williams sidestepped a specific comment on Holland, he said the team is looking to add relievers on potential value deals. “A lot of times it comes from a guy who has missed time from an injury or had a bad year,” said Williams. Certainly, Holland would fit that bill after missing the 2016 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Sheldon also tackles questions about playing time for Jose Peraza and notes that he considers trades of Anthony DeSclafani and/or Dan Straily unlikely.

Trade/FA Rumblings: Rays, Indians, Pirates, Ortiz

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The Rays want “massive returns” for their on-the-block starting pitchers – which, in Chris Archer’s case, could mean more than the White Sox received from Boston for Chris Sale – reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Archer, 28, hasn’t been as effective as Sale, though he does come with five controllable years at a combined $38.5MM (Sale has three years of control at $38MM). Given their asking price, odds are that the Rays won’t trade Archer, writes Topkin, who adds that fellow right-hander Jake Odorizzi is also unlikely to go anywhere. Tampa Bay isn’t as attached to Drew Smyly, Alex Cobb or Erasmo Ramirez, meaning any of the three could end up on the move in the right deal.

Now for the latest on a few players who aren’t under contract for 2017:

  • The Indians weren’t able to reach an agreement to re-sign free agent first baseman/designated hitter Mike Napoli when they met Monday, but the two sides continue to maintain dialogue, team president Chris Antonetti told MLB Network Radio on Sunday (Twitter link). Cleveland is also in touch with other first base/DH types, though Antonetti didn’t specify which players are on the club’s radar. Reports over the past week have linked free agents Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter and Adam Lind to the Tribe.
  • The Pirates “are still engaged” with free agent right-hander Ivan Nova’s camp, general manager Neal Huntington said Sunday (Twitter link via Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). There hasn’t been much chatter of late regarding Nova, who joined the Pirates in an Aug. 1 trade with the Yankees and subsequently posted a 3.06 ERA, 7.29 K/9 and .42 BB/9 in 64 2/3 innings to boost his stock entering free agency. The soon-to-be 30-year-old is arguably the best starter remaining in a thin class that has lost Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Bartolo Colon, among others, over the past few weeks.
  • The idea of former Red Sox DH David Ortiz postponing his retirement is mostly wishful thinking, it seems. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald informed MLB Network Radio on Sunday that Ortiz’s mind is made up there’s “zero chance” barring an unexpected change of heart from the 41-year-old Ortiz (Twitter link). Ortiz has already filed his retirement paperwork, Drellich points out, and the process of reversing course is both cumbersome and uncommon.

Rotation Rumblings: Gray, Duffy, Astros, Pirates, Fister

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The Braves are reportedly still in the mix for Chris Sale, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Atlanta also made a run at Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray but found Oakland’s asking price to be prohibitive (Twitter link). Oakland did not ask for Dansby Swanson to be included in the deal, but Atlanta still felt the A’s were asking for too much in return.

A few more notes on the market for starting pitchers…

  • The Royals are gauging interest in left-hander Danny Duffy, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Duffy had a breakout campaign this past season, tossing 179 2/3 innings with a 3.51 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 36.4 percent ground-ball rate. As Morosi points out, he could make sense for a team looking to augment its rotation but unwilling to part with the talent required to land someone like Chris Sale or Chris Archer. Duffy, however, is a free agent next winter, so he’d be a short-term upgrade rather than a long-term solution like those other names.
  • The Astros are more likely to trade for rotation help than they are to pursue the remaining free agents on the market, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. Houston isn’t in on right-hander Ivan Nova and likely considers him to be too expensive, per Olney. The Astros are reportedly open to moving either Collin McHugh or Mike Fiers as they seek to create some roster/payroll flexibility, as Olney’s colleague, Jayson Stark, reported earlier today.
  • Pirates officials are set to meet with free agent lefty Derek Holland at some point this week at the Winter Meetings, reports Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter). The Bucs have been linked to H0lland on multiple occasions this winter as the former Ranger looks to rebuild his stock with a healthy 2017 campaign.
  • The Marlins are showing some interest in right-hander Doug Fister, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman, but adding an established closer is the team’s No. 1 priority at the moment. This isn’t the first time Miami has been connected to Fister, but that fact that they’re still interested after adding Edinson Volquez to the mix is notable.

Pitcher Notes: Nova, Bumgarner, Cashner, Miller

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Free agent right-hander Ivan Nova has received offers in the three-year, $36MM range, agent Greg Genske told MLB Network Radio on Sunday (Twitter link). Genske didn’t indicate whether richer proposals have come in, but 3/36 seems seems light for Nova – who MLBTR predicts will land a four-year, $52MM deal in a weak market. The former run-of-the-mill Yankees starter was highly effective down the stretch in 2016 as a member of the Pirates, with whom he logged a 3.06 ERA, 7.29 K/9 and .42 BB/9 in 64 2/3 innings.

More pitcher-related news and notes:

  • Thanks to the extension they signed left-hander Madison Bumgarner to in 2012, the Giants have the ace under control at eminently reasonable prices through the 2019 season, during which he’ll turn 30. But San Francisco wants to lock up Bumgarner beyond then, as “solidifying that relationship long-term is a real priority for them,” Genske said (Twitter link). That jibes with what Giants CEO Larry Baer stated last month: “[Bumgarner has] been a tremendous asset for us. He’s done historic things. But, look, obviously, we want to make Madison a Giant for a long, long time to come – well-beyond his current contract.”
  • The Indians’ Andrew Miller has turned into one of baseball’s most dominant late-game weapons, but his emergence as a reliever only came after he failed as a starter. With that in mind, Mike Petriello of MLB.com sees three struggling starters – the Yankees’ Michael Pineda, free agent Andrew Cashner and the Padres’ Jarred Cosart – as candidates to eventually follow in Miller’s footsteps. While Petriello acknowledges that a role change in 2017 is unlikely for Pineda, he argues that turning the hard-throwing 27-year-old into a reliever who relies on a fastball/slider combo would serve him well. Cashner also features a high-velocity fastball and a slider, but he has posted disappointing numbers as a starter while dealing with durability issues. Cosart, meanwhile, has difficulty in longer appearances. Opposing hitters have posted a .359 wOBA against him the third time through the order, up from .301 and .290 the first two trips, according to Petriello.
  • Like Petriello, ESPN’s Keith Law is a proponent of moving Cashner to the bullpen (Insider required and recommended). While Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon will collect the most money among this offseason’s class of free agent closers, Law regards Cashner, Daniel Hudson, Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar as bargain alternatives to the high-profile trio. Going the trade route for bullpen help is also possible, of course, and Law wonders if the Indians will shop Miller – on whom they relied heavily this past season. Miller is due a palatable $18MM through 2018, but that’s not a pittance for a low-payroll club.

Free Agent Profile: Ivan Nova

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In July, Ivan Nova was nearly a forgotten man. He’d started the season in the Yankees bullpen, then struggled after heading to the rotation in May. Leave it to the Pirates and their pitcher-fixing ways to change that, however. Nova excelled down the stretch after heading to Pittsburgh in a low-profile deadline trade, and he now looks like one of the top starting pitchers available in a paper-thin free agent market.

Pros/Strengths

If we had to edit this section down to six words, it would read, “everything he did with the Pirates.” In 64 2/3 innings with the Bucs, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 7.2 K/9, a 52.3% ground ball rate and an astounding 0.4 BB/9. (Or, to put that differently, he walked three batters in a span of more than two months.) With the Bucs, Nova focused on throwing first-pitch strikes and improving his release point, and the results speak for themselves. If he’s able to retain the improvements he made, he’ll make a strong addition to pretty much any rotation, and at the relatively young age of 29, there’s hope that he’ll be able to continue contributing for years to come, especially since his ability to get ground balls gives him something of a floor.

Ivan NovaAs I noted in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece in late August, Nova also has precedent on his side. Other pitchers the Pirates have fixed (either in perception or reality) have continued to pitch at least reasonably well elsewhere, including J.A. Happ, Edinson Volquez and Mark Melancon. The Jays are surely happy with their $36MM investment in Happ, whose situation parallels Nova’s in many ways — the Bucs acquired Happ in an under-the-radar deadline deal in 2015, and he immediately transformed from a forgettable back-of-the-rotation type to a strike-throwing stopper. He maintained much of that improvement this year in Toronto, posting a 3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 195 innings and attaining a level of sustained success he’d never experienced before. His contract, seemingly at least somewhat of a risk at the time, now looks like a bargain. Nova’s representatives at the Legacy Agency can point to Happ’s example to show that Nova’s success is unlikely to turn out to be a fluke, or a temporary benefit of working with Ray Searage and the rest of the Pirates’ coaching staff.

Cons/Weaknesses

Again in six words: “everything he did before the Pirates.” There is nothing in Nova’s pre-August track record — besides, perhaps, his consistent ground-ball ability — to suggest he’s worthy of the kind of contract he seems likely to command this winter. The relatively high prospect price the Bucs paid to get Nova (they gave up outfielder Tito Polo and lefty Stephen Tarpley as players to be named) suggests Nova did have value on the trade market. Still, if Nova’s Pirates numbers speak for themselves, his pre-trade numbers do too — before the deal, he’d posted a 4.90 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 97 1/3 innings with the Yankees. His statistics before that (he had a career 4.33 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 before 2016, only topping 170 innings in a season one time) are fine but likewise uninspiring. The team that signs Nova will be taking a very expensive gamble that his excellent two months with the Pirates represent his real talent level going forward. That’s a dicey proposition for a number of reasons. Two months is a small sample, and it’s easy to imagine Nova having walked a few more batters in his Pirates tenure and posting a line that looked distinctly less impressive.

Nova had also allowed 19 home runs in 2016 before the trade. Home-run rate isn’t the best indicator of future performance for a pitcher, but Nova also allowed hard contact at a high 35.6% rate. It’s possible to argue that Nova’s success with the Pirates was largely a result of his feeling free to throw more strikes due to the generally homer-unfriendly context in which the Bucs play. (It’s hard to throw as many strikes as Nova did with the Pirates without worrying about the ball flying out of the park every so often.) He might therefore be less attractive target for teams in homer-happy ballparks or divisions.

Personal

Nova was born in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, and as a child, he initially played shortstop and outfield. In 2004, after a growth spurt landed him on the prospect radar, he signed for $80K with the Yankees, the team he’d rooted for as a youngster. He is married to former Miss Dominican Republic Ada de la Cruz.

Market

Nova’s future appears especially bright given the quality of his free agent competition. The only starting pitcher who decisively looks like a better buy is Rich Hill, and even that might be debatable, since Hill is 36. Jeremy Hellickson is the same age as Nova and has a better track record, but lacks the upside Nova demonstrated in his strong finish. Also, since Nova was traded this season, he can’t be extended a qualifying offer, unlike Hellickson.

The Pirates need pitching help and attempted to extend Nova before season’s end, although they reportedly balked at Nova’s asking price of five years and $70MM. They could get involved again this winter, and Nova appears amenable to returning. Signing Nova will almost certainly require the Pirates to make their largest-ever commitment to a free agent, and their recent dumping of Francisco Liriano (whose last free agent contract is the Bucs’ current largest ever) in a dubious salary-shedding trade might indicate they won’t be willing or able to pay Nova what he might be able to get elsewhere. The Angels, Rangers, Twins and Braves also stand out as teams that could have interest.

Expected Contract

Ian Kennedy got five years and $70MM from the Royals last offseason, and Nova’s identical reported asking price seems to have been determined with that deal in mind. It seems unlikely Nova will actually get that much, even in a weak market, since Kennedy had a much longer track record both in number and quality of innings pitched. Nova could get close, though, perhaps receiving a similar average annual value to Kennedy with a slightly shorter commitment. There’s plenty of precedent for free agent starting pitchers in the upper middle of a typical market getting four years at an AAV of $12MM-$14MM. We’re guessing Nova will receive four years and $52MM, which would put his contract in line with recent deals for Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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