Latest On Mike Trout’s Calf Injury
Mike Trout‘s return from a calf strain has had a slight setback, Joe Maddon told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. On July 19th, Trout himself said he was “really, really close” to beginning a rehab assignment. One week later, that rehab assignment still hasn’t begun because he still “feels something,” Maddon says. “He just feels it a little bit in that area, when he really tries to move quickly.”
The health of their superstar outfielder is tremendously important for an Angels club at an important inflection point of the season. As noted by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, they are “trying to decide course”, with the July 30th trade deadline fast approaching. The team is currently straddling the .500 mark with a record of 49-49. They are 11 games back of the Astros in the AL West and 5 1/2 back of Oakland for the second wild card spot, but with four other teams between them. FanGraphs pegs their playoff odds at 8.8%, with just over two months left to gain ground on their competitors.
Any sort of delay to Trout’s return could further deflate the team’s playoff aspirations. Trout has been considered among the most elite players in baseball for a decade now. And before getting hurt, his 2021 numbers were somehow even better than his own otherworldly standards. In 36 games, Trout produced a slash line of .333/.466/.624, good enough for a wRC+ of 193, a few notches above his career mark of 172.
Although the club recently called up top prospect Brandon Marsh to try to cover center field in Trout’s absence, it’s almost impossible for anyone to match the level of production that a healthy Trout can provide.
Draft Signings: 7/25/21
Today’s most notable signings from Day Two (and beyond) of the amateur draft. As always, you can get more background on these players via the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
All signings reported by MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, unless otherwise noted…
- The Marlins signed second-round pick Cody Morrissette, with the Boston College shortstop agreeing to the assigned slot price of $1,403,200 for the 52nd overall pick.
- The Diamondbacks went slightly above slot to sign Adrian Del Castillo, the draft’s 67th overall selection and Arizona’s pick in Competitive Balance Round B. Del Castillo, a catcher from the University of Miami, signed for a $1MM bonus, topping the 67th pick’s slot price of $976.7K.
- The Angels made a very notable signing outside the top 10 rounds, agreeing to a $1.25MM bonus with 12th-round pick Mason Albright. As Callis notes, this is now the highest bonus given to a player beyond the first 10 rounds since MLB adopted the current draft format. $1.125MM of Albright’s bonus will count against the Angels’ total $9,295,900 spending pool. Albright is an 18-year-old southpaw who had received some rankings (107th from McDaniel, 122th from Pipeline, 134th from BA) far above his station as the 351st overall pick, and the Angels clearly had to go above and beyond to get Albright to break his commitment to Virginia Tech.
Angels Recall Jaime Barria, Designate Alex Claudio For Assignment
The Angels have designated lefty specialist Alex Claudio for assignment in order to create room for Jaime Barria, per the team. Barria will start today’s ballgame.
Barria broke out as a 21-year-old way back in 2018 by posting a 3.41 ERA across 129 1/3 innings. He hasn’t been able to replicate that output in the years since, however. He has just two appearances covering six innings this year while making 10 starts in Triple-A. He’s posted a 4.41 ERA in 49 innings with Salt Lake City.
Claudio, meanwhile, seemed like a solid, cheap addition this offseason. The sidewinding southpaw has been tagged for a 5.41 ERA/5.09 FIP in 41 appearances covering 32 2/3 innings. Signed to a $1.125MM contract, he’ll be a low-cost pickup for anyone looking to make a claim.
Lefties have uncharacteristically shelled Claudio this season with a .364 wOBA and .275/.333/.522 triple slash line. In his career, lefties have just a .258 wOBA against Claudio with a 21.2 percent strikeout rate and 4.4 percent walk rate. His strikeout rate is up against lefties, but he’s also walking more hitters than usual, regardless of their handedness.
Draft Signings: 7/24/21
Here are the latest Day Two draft picks to sign with their teams. For more on the 2021 draft class, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
All signings were reported by MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, unless specified otherwise.
- The Angels signed St. Mary’s College left-hander Ky Bush for a $1.75MM bonus, spending slightly beyond the 45th overall pick’s assigned value of $1,650,200.
- The Nationals signed Daylen Lile for $1.75MM, going a bit overslot ($1,580,200) for the 47th overall pick to get the high school outfielder to forego his commitment to Louisville.
- The White Sox went overslot to sign second-round pick Wes Kath, signing the high school third baseman for a $1.8MM bonus. The 57th overall selection has an assigned price of $1,243,600, but the Sox had some money to spare after going well underslot to sign college players picked within their first 10 selections.
- The Athletics signed University of Virginia third baseman Zack Gelof for $1,157,400, matching the slot price for the 60th overall pick. Oakland has now signed all of its picks from the first 10 rounds of the draft.
- The Royals signed 66th overall pick Peyton Wilson for an at-slot ($1,003,300) bonus. Wilson is listed as a second baseman, but Callis notes that the University Of Alabama product can also play catcher and center fielder.
- The Indians signed Florida right-hander Tommy Mace for $1.1MM, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo. Mace’s bonus is above the $929.8K slot price for the 69th overall pick.
- The Orioles have reached agreements with 20 of their 21 picks, with some notable overslot bonuses among the signings Eighth-rounder Creed Willems had the most eye-opening number, as the high school catcher landed a $1MM bonus that went way over the $187.7K assigned slot price for the 227th pick. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports that the Orioles also went well above the $818.2K slot price for 76th overall pick John Rhodes, who signed for $1.375MM.
Angels Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Sam Bachman
The Angels have agreed to a deal with right-hander Sam Bachman, their top pick in this month’s amateur draft, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (via Twitter). The now-former Miami (Ohio) University hurler will take home a $3,847,500 bonus that checks in more than a million dollars south of the $4,949,100 value of Bachman’s No. 9 overall slot.
The 21-year-old Bachman, listed at 6’1″ and 235 pounds, posted ridiculous numbers in his junior season. Through 59 2/3 innings, he pitched to a 1.81 ERA while striking out 41 percent of his opponents against just a 7.5 percent walk rate. He allowed just one home run all season and, in three years of NCAA ball, surrendered just four long balls through a total of 159 innings.
Bachman was seen as a slam-dunk first rounder thanks to some of the best raw stuff in the entire draft. Baseball America’s scouting report on the RedHawks ace indicated that both his fastball and slider have received 70 grades on the 20-80 scale, with some scouts even putting an 80 on both pitches. The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote that Bachman had the “best one-two punch in the draft and should be a top ten pick.” Law ranked Bachman as the draft’s No. 9 player, and he ranked 14th both at Baseball America and at MLB.com. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen had Bachman listed 18th, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked him 29th.
Bachman isn’t without his concerns, however. He missed a pair of starts early in the college season due to arm troubles and gives scouts some pause because of his delivery. Bachman has a third offering, a changeup, that some reports grade as above-average, but he rarely used it this season. All of that leads to some concern that he’s a reliever rather than a starter, but he’d have a good chance at being an impact bullpen piece even if he goes that route.
Bachman headlined an Angels draft class comprised entirely of pitchers. The Halos not only exclusively selected pitchers this year but went with college arms for 19 of their 20 picks. The lone exception was high school lefty Mason Albright in the 12th round — a lefty who landed 122nd on MLB.com’s rankings and 135th at Baseball America but is committed to Virginia Tech. It’s possible that the $1.1MM or so in savings on the Bachman pick will be used to try to sway Albright from that commitment and get him into the Angels’ system.
Pirates Acquire Dillon Peters, Designate Kyle Crick
The Pirates have acquired left-hander Dillon Peters from the Angels in exchange for cash considerations, both clubs announced. The Angels designated Peters for assignment last week after signing outfielder Adam Eaton to a major league contract. To open roster space for Peters, Pittsburgh has designated reliever Kyle Crick for assignment.
Peters appeared in the majors each season from 2017-20, with the bulk of his experience coming in 2019. Altogether, he’s tossed 132 2/3 innings of 5.83 ERA/5.22 SIERA ball across 31 MLB appearances (including 24 starts). To date, Peters has struggled to miss bats at the big league level, striking out a below-average 16.7% of batters faced and generating swinging strikes on only 8.7% of his offerings (11.4% league average).
However, Peters has shown much better strikeout and walk numbers this season at Triple-A. Through 41 1/3 frames with the Angels’ top affiliate in Salt Lake, the 28-year-old has punched out a strong 26.8% of hitters while walking just 7.3% of opponents. Peters has been plagued by the home run ball this year (2.61 HR/9), but that’s also likely influenced by the extreme hitter-friendly environment of Triple-A West. Clearly, the Pirates’ front office was sufficiently intrigued by Peters’ improved minor league peripherals to take a low-cost flyer on him. He’s in his final option year, meaning he can move freely between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Indianapolis for the rest of the season if he sticks on the 40-man roster.
It has been a difficult 2021 season for Crick, who has intermittently flashed high-leverage potential. A one-time top pitching prospect coming up through the Giants’ system, the righty moved to the bullpen in 2017. He made his big league debut with San Francisco that year, tossing 32 1/3 innings of 3.06 ERA ball. That offseason, the Giants shipped him to Pittsburgh alongside Bryan Reynolds in a now-regrettable deal to acquire Andrew McCutchen.
Crick pitched well in his debut campaign with Pittsburgh, working 60 1/3 relief innings with a 2.39 ERA and a 3.57 SIERA. He’s not consistently managed to follow up on that success, though, as his control has gone backwards in recent years. Crick struggled in 2019, then missed much of the abbreviated 2020 season dealing with shoulder and lat injuries.
This year, Crick has made 27 appearances totaling 24 1/3 innings. He’s tallied a 4.44 ERA with worse than average strikeout (19.6%), walk (17.8%) and groundball (36.7%) rates. Crick’s velocity on both his fastball and slider is down 2-3 miles per hour relative to his heyday, and he’s seen an accompanying dip in swinging strike rate.
The Pirates will have a week to trade Crick or expose him to waivers. As a player with between three and five years of major league service, he’d have the right to reject an outright assignment if he passes through waivers unclaimed. Doing so, however, would mean forfeiting what remains of his $800K salary. If another club acquires Crick via small trade or waivers (or if he remains in the Pittsburgh organization but pitches his way back onto the 40-man roster before the end of the year), he’d be controllable via arbitration through 2023.
Angels Promote Brandon Marsh
The Angels announced they’re promoting top outfield prospect Brandon Marsh before today’s game against the Mariners. The 23-year-old will get the start in center field this afternoon, making his major league debut in the process. Infielder Kean Wong was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake to create active roster space. Marsh was already selected to the 40-man roster last winter to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft.
Marsh is a consensus top prospect, checking in among the game’s top 50 farmhands in the estimation of each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs entering the season. Longenhagen was the most bullish, slotting him 15th overall (and ninth on FanGraphs’ updated board). He wrote preseason that Marsh possessed All-Star upside thanks to a combination of solid bat-to-ball skills, above-average raw power, and athleticism that enables him to play a quality center field. Those sentiments were echoed by BA and Law, with each outlet lauding his ceiling on both sides of the ball.
Selected by the Angels in the second round of the 2016 draft out of a Georgia high school, Marsh hit very well over his first few seasons in pro ball. He posted strong numbers from 2017-18 before a breakout 2019 campaign. Despite spending that year in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment, Marsh hit a robust .300/.383/.428 over 412 plate appearances. That vaulted him near the top of prospect lists during the 2019-20 offseason, and he retained that status after spending all of last year at the alternate training site.
Marsh has spent this season with Salt Lake. A month-long injured list stint due to right shoulder inflammation has kept him to 110 plate appearances, over which he’s hit .255/.364/.468 with three homers. That’s less impressive than Marsh’s output at the lower levels — once one adjusts for the hitter-friendly Triple-A setting — but it’s still above-average production for a young player taking his first crack at the level.
The left-handed hitting Marsh has put up better than average numbers at every level of his minor league career, compiling an overall .288/.371/.440 slash line over four professional seasons. He’s demonstrated an advanced feel for the strike zone, walking at a lofty 11.2% clip against a slightly-elevated 24.3% strikeout rate.
Obviously, the center field job will go back to Mike Trout whenever the sport’s best player is ready to return from the injured list. Trout is still yet to embark upon a minor league rehab assignment, though, leaving room for Marsh to handle a regular workload for at least the next couple weeks. With Justin Upton also on the IL and recent free agent signee Adam Eaton in right field, there should be room for Marsh to stick around even after Trout’s return if his performance so merits.
Whether or not Marsh sticks with the big league club for good, his promotion comes late enough in the season to prevent him from accruing a full year of major league service. Marsh won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season at the earliest. The window for Super Two eligibility has also passed, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2025. Future optional assignments could push back that service timeline.
West Notes: Kershaw, Rendon, Trout
The Dodgers expect to get ace Clayton Kershaw back sometime in August, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). That makes for a significant chunk of time away for Kershaw, who hit the injured list on July 17th. A couple of weeks time away isn’t jaw-dropping for most, but for one of if not the best pitcher of his generation, any amount of time away must concern the Dodger faithful. Kershaw owns a 3.39 ERA/2.99 FIP over 106 1/3 innings this season. Elsewhere in LA…
- Anthony Rendon isn’t feeling much better, though the Angels don’t classify his injury right now as serious. He won’t be back until the end of July or early part of August, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Rendon hasn’t yet gotten going at the plate this season, suffering as he has from a number of ailments. His 98 wRC+ isn’t awful for most, but it’s far from what we’ve come to expect from Rendon.
- Mike Trout, Harris adds, has yet to receive a rehab assignment, though he continues to progress nicely. Despite missing Trout, the Angels have remained afloat in the playoff hunt with an even 45-45 record.
MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams
With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.
In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
American League
Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)
It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.
Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)
The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.
Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)
There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.
Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)
The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.
Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)
Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.
Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Blue Jays 48% (8,909)
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Yankees 24% (4,413)
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Angels 12% (2,177)
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Mariners 8% (1,571)
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Indians 8% (1,570)
Total votes: 18,640
(poll link for app users)
National League
Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)
The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.
Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)
The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.
Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)
One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.
Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)
The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.
Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Reds 56% (11,382)
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Phillies 20% (4,066)
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Braves 18% (3,710)
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Cubs 6% (1,211)
Total votes: 20,369
(poll link for app users)
Angels Sign Adam Eaton
The Angels announced the signing of veteran outfielder Adam Eaton to a major league contract. To create 40-man roster space, left-hander Dillon Peters has been designated for assignment.
Eaton signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the White Sox over the offseason. He’d generally been a solid performer over his previous four seasons with the Nationals, but it was still a bit of a curious decision given Eaton’s underwhelming 2020 campaign. The left-handed hitter slashed just .226/.285/.384 across 176 plate appearances with Washington last season.
Obviously, the White Sox front office expected he’d be able to bounce back offensively, but that hasn’t yet proven to be the case. While Eaton got off to a strong start to his (second) White Sox tenure, he tailed off rather quickly and has ultimately managed similarly disappointing results as he did last year. He took 219 trips to the dish with Chicago this season, managing just a .201/.298/.344 line with five home runs. Eaton has punched out in a career-worst 25.1% of his plate appearances, his first season with a strikeout percentage higher than the league average. That’s a concerning development for a player whose peak seasons were built upon his ability to put the ball in play to all fields and hit for high batting averages.
The Sox designated Eaton for assignment and granted him his unconditional release earlier this week. They’ll remain on the hook for the bulk of his salary, with the Angels paying Eaton only the league minimum from here on out (just less than $250K after prorating). It’s a no-risk roll of the dice for an Angels team that has had something of a revolving door in right field over the course of the year.
Taylor Ward has played quite well of late and likely has the inside track to the job. Left fielder Justin Upton is currently on the injured list, though, and Eaton’s lefty bat can offer a complement to the series of right-handed hitters (Ward, Upton, Phil Gosselin, Juan Lagares) the club has on hand as corner outfield options. Eaton has a more respectable .235/.316/.404 line against right-handed pitching over the past two seasons, so there’s reason to think he could still offer some value in a platoon role.
Peters hasn’t appeared in the majors this year, spending the campaign at Triple-A Salt Lake. The 28-year-old has tossed 41 1/3 frames of 4.35 ERA ball in that hitter-friendly environment. Peters’ strikeout and walk numbers in Triple-A (26.8% and 7.3%, respectively) are quite strong, but he’s also given up an alarming twelve home runs in eight starts. He has seen big league action with the Marlins and Angels between 2017-20, tossing 132 2/3 innings of 5.83 ERA/5.22 SIERA ball. The Angels will have a week to trade Peters or expose him to waivers.
Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com was first to report Eaton’s deal was a major league contract.