Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Home Run Derby?
A busy week for Major League Baseball kicked off Sunday with the Futures Game during the day and the first 36 picks of the 2021 MLB Draft in the evening. It’ll continue with Day Two of the draft today and the annual Home Run Derby this evening.
Tonight’s eight-player field consists of top seed Shohei Ohtani, followed (in order of MLB’s seeding) by Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Trevor Story and Juan Soto. One half of the bracket will see Ohtani/Soto and Perez/Alonso in first-round matchups, while the other half will see Gallo/Story and Olson/Mancini. We’ll take a very brief look at each participating slugger’s season to date (sorted by their first-round matchup) before opening up polls on who fans are rooting for and who they expect to take home the trophy.
- Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels: Ohtani has been the talk of baseball in 2021, leading MLB with 33 home runs while also pitching to a 3.49 ERA with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate on the mound.
- .279/.364/.698, 33 home runs
- 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 119 mph max exit velo, 26 percent barrel rate
- Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: Soto hasn’t matched his 2019 power output, but he’s the youngest entrant in the field and has been one of baseball’s elite hitters from the moment he homered in his first big league at-bat back in 2018.
- .283/.407/.445, 11 home runs
- 92.6 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 10.8 percent barrel rate
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- Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: After a slow start, Gallo looks well on his way to another 40-homer season. He’s hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 home runs since June 4.
- .239/.402/.522, 24 home runs
- 92.4 mph average exit velo, 115.1 mph max, 19.6 percent barrel rate
- Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Story will take the field hoping for an upset win that could serve as something of a Coors Field farewell with the trade deadline and free agency looming.
- .249/.323/.442, 11 home runs
- 90.7 mph average exit velo, 110.2 mph max, 9.2 percent barrel rate
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- Salvador Perez, C, Royals: The seven-time All-Star gets better with age. He’s ripped 32 home runs in just 519 plate appearances dating back to the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
- .275/.300/.501, 21 home runs
- 93 mph average exit velo, 114.2 mph max, 14.3 percent barrel rate
- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso will defend his 2019 title — there was no 2020 Home Run Derby — in the midst of a hot streak. Eleven of the Polar Bear’s 17 big flies have come since Memorial Day weekend.
- .250/.328/.478, 17 home runs
- 92.7 mph average exit velo, 117.1 mph max, 15.7 percent barrel rate
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- Matt Olson, 1B, Athletics: Since 2017, the underrated Olson leads all full-time first basemen with 126 home runs, and he’s on pace to top his career-high mark of 36.
- .282/.371/.567, 23 home runs
- 92 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 14.4 percent barrel rate
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: That Mancini was able to return to the field at all after being diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer in early 2020 is remarkable; a derby win would be a feel-good story for baseball fans everywhere.
- .256/.331/.460, 16 home runs
- 88.5 mph average exit velo, 113.9 mph max, 12.9 percent barrel rate
Who do you want to see win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who do you WANT to win the Home Run Derby?
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Shohei Ohtani 29% (4,206)
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Pete Alonso 24% (3,503)
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Trey Mancini 15% (2,240)
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Joey Gallo 12% (1,815)
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Juan Soto 6% (807)
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Matt Olson 5% (788)
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Trevor Story 4% (634)
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Salvador Perez 4% (548)
Total votes: 14,541
Who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who do you think WILL win the Home Run Derby?
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Pete Alonso 31% (3,288)
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Shohei Ohtani 28% (3,019)
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Joey Gallo 20% (2,168)
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Matt Olson 6% (606)
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Juan Soto 5% (499)
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Trey Mancini 4% (458)
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Trevor Story 4% (406)
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Salvador Perez 2% (242)
Total votes: 10,686
Angels Notes: Trout, Upton, Rendon, Minasian, Trades
The Angels are expecting some major reinforcements to their lineup, though the exact timing of at least two of those bats is still up in the air. GM Perry Minasian told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (Twitter links) and other reporters that the team hasn’t yet determined a start date for Mike Trout‘s minor league rehab assignment, while Justin Upton might need a rehab assignment of his own before he is activated from the 10-day injured list.
A right calf strain sent Trout to the injured list back on May 18, and a subsequent shift to the 60-day IL meant that Trout won’t be able to return until July 17 at the earliest. Given the long layoff, a rehab stint certainly seems necessary for Trout, and the exact length of the assignment will be determined by both the condition of Trout’s calf and how long it will take the superstar to get fully ramped up for big league game action. Trout has already been participating in baseball activities, so if the rehab assignment gets underway soon, it is possible he might be ready to go when first eligible to be activated from the IL a week from today.
Upton has been on the IL since June 25 due to a sore back, and he has already missed more time than expected with what was initially thought to be a fairly minor issue. The outfielder will now be sidelined through the All-Star break, though there still isn’t yet any indication that Upton won’t be eligible for reinstatement in time for the Angels’ first second-half game on July 16. (Upton could do any necessary rehab work in minor league games during the break.)
In better news for the team, Minasian said Anthony Rendon should be ready to return by the time the second half begins. Rendon was retroactively placed on the 10-day injured list on July 5 due to a left hamstring strain, so he’ll end up missing a minimal amount of time if he does indeed get activated on July 16.
Needless to say, getting Trout, Upton, and Rendon back as quickly as possible will go a long way towards determining the Angels’ fate for the 2021 season as a whole, and in the more immediate near-future of their trade deadline plans. Despite multiple key injuries and well-documented pitching and defensive problems, Los Angeles still has a 44-43 record, and is a modest 4.5 games back in the AL wild card race. No deadline addition could compare to getting Trout and the red-hot Upton (with an 1.020 OPS in 112 PA since becoming the Angels’ leadoff hitter) back in the lineup, and while Rendon has struggled with injuries and inconsistency this year, the third baseman has a superstar track record.
With this in mind, Minasian said his front office is considering adding players before the trade deadline, though the GM stopped short of using a traditional “seller” or “buyer” label to describe his team. All options appear to be under consideration, however, as Minasian said the Angels were open to acquiring rental players under contract only for the remainder of the 2021 season.
Fangraphs gives the Halos a 16.5% percent chance at reaching the playoffs, though the x-factors of Trout, Upton, and Rendon could change the equation considerably. If all three are in form upon returning from the IL, the Angels will have one of the scariest lineups in baseball, so Minasian surely has to be focusing on pitching upgrades in his trade explorations. One would imagine that the Angels might still lean towards buying at the deadline even if they’re still hanging around the .500 mark come July 30, though Minasian isn’t likely to make a full-on shopping spree if L.A. is still something of a longshot for the postseason.
Home Run Derby Field Finalized
The eight-man field is set for the 2021 Home Run Derby. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, Orioles first baseman Trey Mancini, Royals catcher Salvador Pérez, Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, Nationals outfielder Juan Soto and Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo will compete in the event.
Ohtani has been perhaps baseball’s biggest story in 2021. The two-way star has a league-best thirty-one home runs and looks like the early favorite to win the AL MVP award. Alonso, who won the most recent Derby in 2019, will be looking to defend his title. The right-handed slugger has popped fifteen homers this year. Story figures to be the fan favorite with All-Star festivities taking place in Denver. The 28-year-old has hit 11 longballs this season. It’ll be an emotional sight to see Mancini on such a big stage. He missed all of last season battling colon cancer but made it back this year and has popped fifteen homers.
Pérez has been the game’s most powerful catcher. He leads all backstops with twenty homers and he’ll get the starting nod behind the plate for the American League in the All-Star game. Olson has also hit twenty dingers this year and will represent the playoff-contending A’s in the All-Star game. Gallo, who’ll join Ohtani, Pérez and Olson on the AL All-Star team, has been on an absolute tear over the last month, bringing his season total in homers up to twenty-three. Soto only has ten home runs this season, but he’s been one of the game’s best hitters since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 2018.
The Home Run derby will take place at Denver’s Coors Field on Monday, July 12.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported Gallo’s inclusion.
Angels Place Anthony Rendon On Injured List
The Angels announced they’ve placed third baseman Anthony Rendon on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 5, with a left hamstring strain. Utilityman Jack Mayfield has been recalled to take his active roster spot. Los Angeles also announced that outfielder Scott Schebler, who had been designated for assignment, has cleared outright waivers and accepted an assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake.
This will mark the third IL stint of the season for Rendon, continuing what has been a disappointing campaign. When healthy, the 31-year-old has hit an average .240/.329/.382 with six home runs over 249 plate appearances. That’s a far cry from the star-level production Rendon had offered over the previous four years. Between 2017-20, he’d hit .307/.399/.550. That works out to a 146 wRC+ that tied for eighth among the 260 qualified hitters over that time frame.
Slow start notwithstanding, the Angels are surely hoping to get Rendon back onto the field rather quickly. Manager Joe Maddon suggested Rendon’s absence wouldn’t be too long (via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). That’s welcome news for the 42-42 club, which sits six games back in the AL Wild Card race. A return to health and peak form from Rendon could be critical to the team’s hopes of making a late-season run.
Schebler returns to Salt Lake, where he’s hit a solid .281/.355/.523 over 172 plate appearances this season. The left-handed hitter has twice been selected to the major league roster but only combined to make 34 trips to the dish at the highest level.
Angels Injury Notes: Rendon, Ward, Upton
The Angels moved back over the .500 mark with today’s 6-5 walkoff victory over the Orioles, though it may have been a costly win as both Anthony Rendon (left hamstring tightness) and Taylor Ward (right index index finger) made early exits due to potential injuries. The early word from the team training staff is that neither injury seems particularly serious, manager Joe Maddon told The Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris and other reporters. Rendon and Ward are both questionable for Monday’s game with the Red Sox, but any absence “should not be something elongated. That’s the original diagnosis I’ve been given,” Maddon said.
Rendon has already missed a little over three weeks due to two separate IL stints earlier this season, and also been bothered by a triceps strain. It’s safe to assume these issues have been a factor in Rendon’s underwhelming .240/.329/.382 slash line, though the third baseman has been heating up over the last week. Rendon’s hamstring problem forced him out of the game in the sixth inning, Maddon said, after Rendon attempted to field an infield single from Baltimore’s Austin Hays.
Ward suffered a jammed finger while diving back to a base, according to Maddon. The Angels’ outfield injuries have results in quite a bit of playing time for Ward this season, who has embraced the opportunity by hitting a solid .247/.333/.437 (113 wRC+) with seven homers over 199 PA. The 27-year-old was originally called up from Triple-A on May 5 as part of a series of roster moves that included Rendon’s second IL placement.
The team can hardly afford to be short any more position players, as Justin Upton‘s sore back will keep him on the injured list beyond the 10-day minimum. Upton was eligible to be activated today, though Maddon said before the game (to The Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher and other reporters) that Upton is “still not quite ready….So we’re just gonna have to make sure that he gets all the proper work in before he gets out there. We need to get him out there, do some defensive work running a little bit, etc.” The Halos manager doesn’t think Upton’s absence will last through the week and into the All-Star break, as Maddon believes Upton could be ready to play “any day now.”
Angels Option Griffin Canning, Designate Scott Schebler
The Angels announced they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Andrew Wantz. Somewhat surprisingly, starter Griffin Canning was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake in a corresponding move. Outfielder Scott Schebler has been designated for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.
Canning is headed to the minors for the first time since his contract was selected back in April 2019. He’s been a rotation mainstay over the past few seasons, starting 41 of his 43 MLB appearances. He offered league average production from 2019-20 but has struggled this season. Over 62 2/3 innings, Canning has worked to a 5.60 ERA/4.62 SIERA with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates (22.4% and 10.1%, respectively).
Of course, there’s no indication Canning’s absence is expected to be particularly lengthy. He got the ball in last night’s start against the Orioles. The Angels, who have a six-man rotation, have an off day after their next five games. With the All-Star Break the following week, the Angels could simply skip Canning’s spot in the rotation during their final turn before the Break. Los Angeles has another off day after five games coming out of the Break, so they needn’t turn to a sixth starter again until July 27.
Optioning Canning could allow the Angels to give him a brief mental reset while also keeping tabs on his innings total. This year, he’s already exceeded the 56 1/3 frames he worked during last year’s shortened campaign, and the righty’s 2019 season was cut short at 90 1/3 innings by elbow inflammation that persisted into 2020. The organization surely wants to be cautious not to overwork a player they expect to be a key starter over the next few seasons.
There doesn’t seem to be a huge benefit for the Angels from a service time perspective by optioning Canning. The 25-year-old won’t accrue major league service while he’s on optional assignment, of course, but he’s already long exceeded his second full year of service this season. Unless they’re planning on leaving him in Triple-A for the rest of this season and much of the first half of 2022- an extremely improbable outcome- Canning’s path to free agency after 2025 will be unaffected.
A lengthy optional assignment could jeopardize his ability to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player after this year. That’d likely require the Angels to keep him down for over a month, though, and he doesn’t have the gaudy counting stats (wins and strikeouts) that suggest he’d be particularly likely to break the bank in arbitration regardless. In all likelihood, the optional assignment was more motivated by a desire to open an additional roster spot and keep Canning’s innings in check than it was an extended effort to skirt his potential Super Two eligibility, especially with the 40-41 Angels still on the periphery of the playoff race.
Wantz will take Canning’s place on the pitching staff for now. A seventh-round pick in 2018 out of UNC-Greensboro, he’s earned his first big league opportunity with a strong season at Salt Lake. Through 25 2/3 innings in an offense-friendly environment, Wantz has worked to a 2.10 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk numbers (25.0% and 6.0%, respectively). The 25-year-old has never appeared on an Angels farm system ranking at FanGraphs or Baseball America. He’s clearly elevated his stock in 2021, though, and would’ve been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if not added to the 40-man roster before then.
It’s the second time this season the Angels have designated Schebler, who cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment last time around. The 30-year-old hasn’t produced in limited big league time this year but he’s hit a solid .281/.355/.523 over 172 plate appearances with Salt Lake. The Angels will have a week to trade Schebler or again place him on waivers.
Angels Move Dylan Bundy To Bullpen
The Angels are moving right-hander Dylan Bundy to the bullpen, manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Sam Blum of the Athletic). Southpaw José Suarez will assume a permanent spot in the starting rotation.
It’s the continuation of what has proven to be a difficult year for Bundy. He seemed to have turned a corner upon being traded from the Orioles to Los Angeles entering 2020, spinning 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during his debut season with the Angels. Things have gone completely south in 2021, though. The 28-year-old has been tagged for a 6.58 ERA in 67 frames this season. Bundy actually got off to a good start with three consecutive quality starts to begin the campaign, but he’s managed just a 7.88 ERA in twelve appearances since, with opposing hitters teeing off for a .297/.360/.568 slash line in that time.
In fairness to Bundy, the underlying numbers suggest he’s pitched a bit better than his bottom line run prevention would suggest. His 21.5% strikeout rate is disappointing, a below-average mark that’s nearly six percentage points below his 27% clip from last season. But it’s not disastrously low, and Bundy’s 10.8% swinging strike rate is serviceable. He’s always been a quality strike-thrower, and that hasn’t gone away either. Bundy’s only walking 7.2% of opponents, right in line with his career pace and better than league-average. Those strikeout and walk numbers contribute to a more respectable 4.30 SIERA.
The biggest issue for Bundy this season, as it was during his time in Baltimore, has been the long ball. He’s allowed a staggering fifteen home runs (2.01 HR/9). Among pitchers with 50-plus innings, only Matt Shoemaker (2.14 HR/9) has coughed up homers at a higher rate. Unsurprisingly, a glance at Bundy’s Statcast page confirms he’s given up plenty of hard contact.
That all makes for an interesting decision for teams this winter. Bundy’s slated to hit free agency for the first time this offseason. Obviously, this isn’t the platform year he’d desired, but his arsenal hasn’t evaporated. His four-seam fastball and slider velocity are actually up a tick relative to last season, as are Bundy’s spin rates. (His spin has dropped over the past month, coinciding with the league’s foreign substance crackdown, but Bundy’s slump predated reports of imminent enforcement of the ban on sticky stuff). The results simply haven’t been there this season, but we’re only a year removed from Bundy finding plenty of success with this level of raw stuff.
The Angels already bumped José Quintana to the bullpen a couple weeks ago, so Bundy’s the second member of the season-opening rotation to move into relief. That mostly reflects Quintana’s and Bundy’s down years, but it’s also a testament to the strong work of their eventual replacements, Patrick Sandoval and Suarez.
Sandoval has a 3.44 ERA/4.00 FIP across seven starts this year. Suarez was knocked around as a starter back in 2019, but he’s earned his way back into the rotation with quality work as a multi-inning reliever this year. The 23-year-old has tossed 27 1/3 innings over nine relief appearances, pitching to a 1.98 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates (23.9% and 8.3%, respectively).
Angels’ GM Perry Minasian Discusses Team’s Approach To Trade Deadline
The Angels again find themselves in a difficult position with the trade deadline just more than a month away. At 38-40, Los Angeles sits ten games back of the division-leading Astros. They’re eight back in the AL Wild Card race, with four teams in between them and the Athletics, who currently hold the second Wild Card spot.
Barring a fantastic run in the coming weeks (at least three of which will come without superstar center fielder Mike Trout), the Angels don’t look like a team that’ll be seeking to acquire impending free agents for the stretch run. Even if they wind up out of the market for rentals, general manager Perry Minasian suggested the Angels could acquire players with years of control remaining beyond the 2021 season.
“There’s short-term and long-term [buys], depending on what you’re buying and how much control it has,” Minasian told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times last weekend. “If you’re looking at shorter-term rentals, then obviously we need to be in a position where we feel like that add is going to really push us. If we’re looking at players with control that can not only help us throughout the rest of this season, going into next year, it’s something we’ll entertain. I’ve been with clubs that you might not necessarily think are buyers, per se, but then a certain player pops up and makes sense for the long-term for that club and they go and buy. So I don’t really categorize it as buyer or seller. I think we’re looking for ways to improve our team, both short-term and long-term.”
Unsurprisingly, Minasian didn’t tip his hand as to how a flexible approach to the deadline could manifest itself. Looking at the Angels financial outlook beyond this season, though, it seems the starting rotation is the area most open to some creative management. Each of Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Andrew Heaney and (current reliever) José Quintana is slated to hit free agency at the end of the year.
If multiple members of that group wind up signing elsewhere, the Angels would have a void to fill over the winter as they retool for 2022. (There’s certainly no thought of rebuilding with Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon in the fold). If the Angels don’t make much headway in the standings over the next few weeks, it’s possible Minasian and the rest of the front office trade away one or more of the impending free agents while exploring acquisitions of starting pitchers who are under team control in 2022 (and perhaps beyond).
Such an approach would allow the Angels to bolster the roster for future seasons without completely punting on this year, especially with Trout tracking towards a mid-late July return. That kind of balancing act can be tough to strike but isn’t unheard of; the out-of-contention Reds acquired Trevor Bauer just before the 2019 trade deadline with an eye towards 2020, to give one prominent example.
As Minasian was quick to point out, much can change for the Angels during the next month. The front office’s exact course at the deadline will no doubt be shaped by how the team performs in their next 25 games, many of which will come against teams in front of them in the AL postseason picture. The Angels have three more games against the Yankees this week, followed by sets against the Orioles, Red Sox, Mariners (twice), A’s (twice), Twins and Rockies before July 30.
Angels Transfer Mike Trout To 60-Day Injured List
The Angels are planning to transfer superstar outfielder Mike Trout from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list, manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). The move will create 40-man roster space for the previously-reported selection of outfielder Scott Schebler.
There’s no cause for alarm, as Trout’s transfer is largely a procedural move. He’s ruled out for sixty days from the date of his original IL placement- May 18- not from here on out. He’ll be eligible to return on July 17.
Trout is progressing well from a right calf strain, Maddon said today. He’s begun taking swings in the batting cage, and the team expects he’ll embark on a minor league rehab assignment some time around the July 12-15 All-Star Break. When Trout first went down, the prognosis was he’d miss six-to-eight weeks, so it seems he’s on pace to return just after that projected timetable. Before the injury, the game’s top player was off to perhaps the best start of his career. Trout has a .333/.466/.624 line through 146 plate appearances this season.
Angels Select Scott Schebler
The Angels are expected to select the contract of outfielder Scott Schebler before this evening’s game against the Yankees. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com was among those to note that Schebler has joined the team in the Bronx. Infielder Kean Wong was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake, but the Angels will need to make another transaction to clear space for Schebler on the 40-man roster.
Schebler, who signed a minor league deal with the Angels over the winter, briefly appeared on the big league club earlier in the season. He tallied just 27 plate appearances before being outrighted, but he’s done well at Salt Lake. The left-handed hitter has a .281/.355/.523 line with eight home runs across 172 plate appearances with the Bees. Triple-A West, like its predecessor the Pacific Coast League, has played extremely hitter-friendly. Nevertheless, Schebler’s offensive production has been nine percentage points better than the league’s average, by measure of weighted runs created.
Best known for his time with the Reds, Schebler has appeared in the majors in each of the past seven seasons. He was a regular for Cincinnati between 2017-18, popping 47 homers across those two seasons. Schebler’s never been one to draw many walks, though, and he’s better suited for the corner outfield than center. He wound up squeezed out of Cincinnati early in 2019 and has only tallied a cumulative 123 major league plate appearances over the past three years.
The Angels have been without Mike Trout and Dexter Fowler for extended stretches, and Justin Upton recently went on the 10-day injured list with back soreness over the weekend. That’s left Los Angeles rather thin in the outfield. General manager Perry Minasian told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) over the weekend that Trout hasn’t begun running or any sort of baseball activity. Trout, who’s been out since May 18, could be a candidate for a transfer to the 60-day IL, if the Angels don’t expect him to return to big league action before the July 12-15 All-Star Break.