Sheehan On Adam Dunn
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus gives his analysis on some Adam Dunn trade suitors. And it’s a free article.
Is Dunn really a lightning rod for criticism in Cincinnati? I’d like to see what those who live there think. I feel that in this day and age Dunn is mostly appreciated for his strengths.
Sheehan’s top five fits for Dunn, in order of likelihood, are the Twins, Angels, Yankees, Padres, and A’s. As Sheehan alludes to, Terry Ryan and Bill Stoneman don’t make this type of trade.
What’s more, the Angels would have a serious logjam with Dunn. You don’t move Casey Kotchman off first, leaving the DH and left field spots for Dunn. You’d rotate the DH spot between Dunn and Vlad, and the left field spot between Garrett Anderson, Reggie Willits, and occasionally Dunn. Someone’s losing some playing time in the deal, and Vlad is probably getting less time at DH to rest. Use of Dunn on the field probably compromises the defense. An Anderson injury could make this less of a problem. Another thought: a coworker of mine suggested that the Angels give up some quality prospects for their bat, but force the inclusion of Shea Hillenbrand in the deal. Not a bad idea.
Interesting to note that Sheehan calls Chase Headley unavailable. Not sure if that is based on some inside info. I had speculated yesterday that Headley’s callup could be a showcase.
Sheehan’s idea of the Yankees for Dunn makes a ton of sense, but they would have to assemble a prospect package without any real alluring name. Well, Joba Chamberlain might be somewhat alluring. It sounds like Wayne Krivsky would ask for Robinson Cano though.
Reds and Angels Discuss Dunn
According to Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times, the Angels had preliminary discussions with the Reds regarding Adam Dunn. Bolch’s source indicates that talks died because the Reds requested "a proven Major League starting pitcher, a Major League infielder – preferably a second baseman – and a top prospect."
Translation: Wayne Krivsky wanted Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Wood. OK, that sounds absurd. And Aybar is a shortstop. Negotiation is all about asking for more than you want and meeting at the right place, but I can’t figure out what the Reds asked for. There’s no way they asked for the above with a straight face. Maybe they wanted Santana and Howie Kendrick? But then a top prospect on top? C’mon now. Bolch’s source says the Halos wouldn’t trade Kendrick for Dunn straight up.
Santana plus one other useful player would be a fine bounty for Dunn, who will reach free agency after the season if he’s traded.
I have a correction, as I earlier wrote that Krivsky could simply exercise Dunn’s 2008 option and then retain freedom to trade him. That’s not exactly true. The situation, according to Ken Rosenthal:
"If the Reds keep Dunn and exercise his option after the season, he will gain full no-trade protection until next June 15. After that date, he could be traded to 10 clubs, but the list would be of his own choosing."
By the way, the Angels may turn their attention back to Miguel Tejada if they can’t get Dunn. The Halos are again interested in him, according to the Riverside Press Enterprise.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken. Let’s review.
- As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn. We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him. Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move. The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur. The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point. And the Twins? They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
- With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him. Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return. Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem. A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
- Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne‘s limited no-trade protection. Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams. The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors. Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline. Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
- The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher. Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency. The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both. I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge. Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need.
- Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena? Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club. I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
- Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
- The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.
Roster Squeeze for Angels
The LA Times points out a sticky situation:
The roster move the Angels make to activate infielder Maicer Izturis, who began a rehabilitation assignment at Rancho Cucamonga Monday, is not as clear-cut as it seems.
Reserve outfielder Nathan Haynes is the logical choice to be sent to triple-A Salt Lake, but even though Haynes made his major league debut last week, he is out of minor league options because he was removed from the Angels’ 40-man roster three times during his minor league career.
It’s a classic problem for teams: they want to keep a player like Haynes (of course), but at the same time, would it really be that big of a deal? If Haynes were going to turn into anything, he probably would’ve right now, so they’d basically be putting a reserve outfielder at risk in the middle of his career-best hot streak.
That said, the Times recommends a couple other courses of action. Erick Aybar could be demoted, which makes plenty of sense, since he and Izturis are somewhat redundant. Also, Shea Hillenbrand could be axed. That makes even more sense, because if Haynes really is worth hanging onto, it stands to reason that he could outhit Hillenbrand’s vomit-inducing 241/261/324 line.
(Side note: when you can be accused of having an "empty" .241 batting average, you suck. It’s that simple.)
So, let’s say Shea goes back on the market. Do I hear any bids? Cash considerations? A single-A backup catcher?
…
That’s what I was afraid of.
By Jeff Sackmann
Brew Crew Ball
Angels To Pass On A-Rod?
ESPN recently interviewed Angels owner Arte Moreno, who speculates that Alex Rodriguez may be looking for a $200MM contract. Moreno’s subsequent argument on why he wouldn’t pick up that tab is suspect.
Moreno believes that since Vladimir Guerrero is one of the best players in baseball and Vlad’s contract had an average annual value of only $14MM, signing A-Rod at $25MM+ would disrespect Guerrero and his teammates. Dan Weber points out that the Halos offered Alfonso Soriano almost $17MM annually…was that disrespectful also? What about Garret Anderson making only $2.5MM less than Vlad?
The reality is that the market was different when the Angels signed Guerrero. He was signed in January of 2004 to the five-year, $70MM pact. In this day and age, that’s a monstrous bargain. A 27 year-old Miguel Tejada would get more than $12MM annually if he signed next winter. I don’t buy the disrespect argument. If Rodriguez is overpriced, just leave it at that and don’t sign him.
Shea Hillenbrand Expendable
It’s an understatement to say that Angels’ DH Shea Hillenbrand is an expendable player. He’s hitting .236/.250/.311 in 148 ABs, the third-worst hitting performance in baseball according to VORP. Only Jason Kendall and Chone Figgins have done more damage to their teams.
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes that the return of Garret Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero‘s need to DH could spell the end of the Shea Hillenbrand Era in L.A. It was a lousy signing to begin with; $6.5MM wasted. At least it was just money. Brian Sabean gave away Jeremy Accardo to acquire Hillenbrand last year.
So, who wants a double-play machine with no glove? Tough call. Open DH jobs are hard to come by. Maybe the Giants would want him back, or the Tigers or Orioles could plug him in at first base.
Heyman On Teixeira
With the trading deadline a mere two months away, we have to drum up some big names on which to speculate. The advent of no-trade clauses and the valuation of young pitching seems to have resulted in fewer blockbusters. Mark Teixeira seems to be this summer’s big name.
We last speculated about Teixeira two weeks ago. The Orioles and Nick Markakis were discussed, as well as the fit for the Angels. The Nationals were seen as a long shot. Jon Heyman has talked to some baseball execs on this topic, and he’s got more ideas. Heyman adds the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers to the mix as well.
The Yanks seemingly wouldn’t mind adding a major slugger at first base, and Heyman’s source doesn’t think they want Todd Helton. But unless the Yanks revert to their old ways and trade The Franchise – Phil Hughes – a Teixeira acquisition seems unlikely. The Yankees don’t have other elite pitching prospects. They would have to go to more established players. The Rangers don’t have a fit for Robinson Cano, though Chien-Ming Wang and his groundballing nature could work.
There’s no real reason for the Red Sox to give up the farm for Teixeira, unless they just want to keep him from the Yankees. I don’t see it.
The Dodgers I see as a strong player. James Loney plus one of their top-rated starting pitching prospects and it’s a done deal. I’m not sure Nomar can handle third base these days, but I don’t see that problem preventing a trade.
Back to the Orioles – as much as Teixeira is dying to play for them, he’s not going to take a big discount and the price in young players will be high. Then again, if the O’s could work something out involving Daniel Cabrera but not Markakis, that gamble could work for both clubs.
The Angels are a fantastic fit, but when has Bill Stoneman ever made a trade like this? I guess there’s a first time for everything.
Let’s not count out the Mets, Braves, or Tigers, either.
Latest On Giambi
A slew of stories in today’s papers featured Jason Giambi, as reporters approached him yesterday regarding the Angels trade rumor. Giambi said, "News to me," which I find kind of hard to believe. I think it’s safe to say that someone in his camp told him about yesterday morning’s New York Post article from George King.
Giambi’s broken quotes seemed to indicate that he never asked for a trade, and that he has no desire to go to L.A. As you know, he has the right to veto any trade. An Angels spokesman denied interest, but what else is he going to say? Bill Stoneman did the same, and publicly passed on Troy Percival as well.
The MLB Players Association and Commissioner’s Office are currently trying to figure out how to interview Giambi about his recent steroid comments to USA Today. Giambi mentioned that he’s "probably tested more than anyone else," which is in part because of his amphetamine use.
This story is already getting kind of old…we need some more pristine trade rumors to surface. Give us some decent Ken Griffey Jr. rumors or something. Giambi has a no-trade clause, tons of baggage (including his age), and a nearly immovable contract. The Yankees are probably stuck with him.
Angels Interested In Jason Giambi
I definitely did not see this one coming. According to George King of the New York Post, the Angels are interested in trading for 36 year-old Yankees slugger Jason Giambi.
The interest surfaced prior to Giambi’s public semi-admission of steroid use and subsequent MLB investigation. The Angels will wait it out to see whether the Yanks are able to void his contract. As Peter Abraham said yesterday, it’s not likely.
Giambi earns $21MM this year and another $21MM in 2008. He has a $22MM club option for ’09 with a $5MM buyout attached. Now, no club would exercise the option, so essentially the Yankees owe $47MM for 2007-08. Take out the money Giambi has already been paid this year, and the remaining commitment is about $41.4MM.
In theory the Yanks could eat about $15MM, and the Angels would send over some fairly valuable players in Chone Figgins and Jose Molina. However, I don’t think Arn Tellum would instruct Giambi to approve the trade with nothing in return. That full no-trade clause could be a major obstacle. Typically a player wants his option exercised to waive his no-trade rights, and Giambi’s ’09 option is crazy. Yes, Giambi would be close to home once again, but I doubt that alone would be enough.
Assuming he can stay healthy, Giambi would give the Angels a much-needed dose of OBP and power. The Halos rank tenth in the league with a .326 OBP and also tenth with a .394 SLG. Giambi is just what the doctor ordered for their offense, and they might be able to get him without surrendering any top prospects or young pitchers.
More Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal’s been a busy man today. He’s got another column up for FOXSports.com; go read it. The high-level version:
- Rosenthal sees the Yankees declining Bobby Abreu‘s 2008 option and turning to Melky Cabrera or a big name free agent for right field. I agree; you can check out my other assessments of 2008 club options here. Might be time to switch my predictions on Juan Uribe, Jose Guillen, and Paul Byrd. I can now see Uribe declined and the other two exercised. Byrd has come alive, and Guillen’s strong May has sparked the chance of the Ms taking their $9MM option for ’08.
- Torii Hunter‘s having a well-timed career year, but the Twins can’t trade him unless they’re out of contention. Tough situation. The Twins are 7.5 games back in the Central, 7 out of the wild card. If it’s double digits in July the decision gets easier.
- It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to trade Scott Rolen right now, based on the factors outlined here.
- Erick Aybar remains an excellent trading chip for the Angels. His .600 OPS doesn’t help his value, but it’s pretty much what PECOTA expected. There’s a small chance Aybar becomes Barry Larkin, but to me he looks like the next Cesar Izturis.