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D-Rays Shopping Crawford

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Back on December 5th, a source close to Tampa Bay’s scouting department threw out the idea that Carl Crawford could be dealt.  In particular, the Devil Rays had interest in 23 year-old righthander Ervin Santana.  Despite new management since then, the rumor has picked up steam.

My source tells me that talks have resumed between the Devil Rays and Angels and the Halos may even consider adding a second prospect with Santana to acquire Crawford.  Brandon Wood is a possibility. 

The Rays would like to deal an outfielder now with a Delmon Young callup in the cards for September or Opening Day 2007.

In his sophomore season, Santana has sharpened his control and lessened his home run rate to become a solid #3 starter behind Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey.  Component ERA says Santana’s 4.32 ERA should actually be closer to 3.29 based on his peripherals.

Crawford is at .303/.349/.454 after 56 games, well ahead of PECOTA’s .287/.321/.426 projection.  He’s signed for 2007-09 for a total of $17.5MM, while PECOTA puts his worth at about $21MM over those three seasons.  The Rays know they can leverage their outfield surplus to add a solid young starter behind Scott Kazmir. 

Angels Buzz

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All sorts of good info coming from my Angels guy:

The Halos were recently close to a fairly big trade, but pulled back at the last minute.  It may have been the much discussed Adam Kennedy for Shea Hillenbrand deal, but another one that was rumored to be close was Alfonso Soriano for Erick Aybar and Joe Saunders.  The Soriano deal included a component where Jose Molina ended up a Yankee.

Now that Kendry Morales heated up and is holding his own in the middle of the L.A. lineup, the team plans on waiting until the All-Star break to make their move.

Also, word is that Arte Moreno has greenlighted Bill Stoneman for more salary room.  Moreno craves Manny Ramirez or Miguel Tejada, someone who can truly make a difference of several wins for the Angels.

Finally, I’m told that Darin Erstad is "probably done for the season." 

Howie Kendrick To Debut In May?

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Just got word from a respected Angels source.

You may be wondering why Maicer Izturis has made four consecutive starts – at shortstop, third base, and even DH.  Sure, he’s hitting well (5 for 15 with three steals).  But this is Maicer Izturis here folks.  He’s a .232/.299/.336 hitter in 300 career ABs.  You don’t want him DHing.

The reason behind all the PT for Izturis is that he’s being shown off for scouts in attendance.  The Angels are hunting for the right deal to make room for Howie Kendrick by mid-May.  If they can’t find something they like for the 25 year-old Izturis, Edgardo Alfonzo may be waived.  Not sure exactly how Adam Kennedy’s playing time will be affected by the callup.

One Angels blog is so sure that Kenrick is on his way they are asking readers to guess the date and cause of his callup!

A little background on Kendrick: he’s an absolute hitting machine.  The 22 year-old second baseman boasts a minor league line of .359/.404/.555.  He doesn’t draw walks, but he doesn’t need to.  Through 57 ABs in 2006, Kendrick’s .386 average ranks 8th in the Pacific Coast League. 

PECOTA calls Kendrick the best prospect in baseball.  Said Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver:

"Since 1998, there are 54 players (including major leaguers) who posted a translated BA of .300 or better in a season in which they were age 22 or younger (minimum 300 AB). Only seven of those players made the list twice:

Sean Burroughs
Miguel Cabrera
Howie Kendrick
Joe Mauer
Albert Pujols
Tony Torcato
David Wright

Cabrera, Wright, Mauer and Pujols presently rate among the ten most valuable commodities in baseball. Burroughs and Tony Torcato were abject failures, but Kendrick has significantly more power and runs significantly better than either of them. In any event, those are pretty good odds."

The Torii Hunter Situation

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I noticed in the Star Tribune yesterday that Torii Hunter, the Twins’ highest paid player, "has expressed doubts the team will pick up his $12MM option for 2007."  The Twins have the option of buying the option out for $2MM. 

Hunter is, of course, only the highest-paid Twin in 2006 because the club backloaded Johan Santana’s four-year deal.  Santana will make $9MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, and $13.25MM in ’08.  Without doing any research whatsoever, I’m guessing the last two years of Santana’s deal will be Twins records for salaries.

Tough to say whether the Twins will keep Hunter around for $12MM or pay $2MM to be off the hook.  Will Hunter be worth that much money when he enters his age 31 season in 2007?  Baseball Prospectus says no, valuing him at just $4,575,000 for that year.  In fact, they think he’s only going to be worth $12MM for all of 2006-10. 

However, their numbers don’t really take into account the center fielder market for the 2006-07 offseason.  Jim Edmonds will be available if Walt Jocketty chooses his $3MM buyout over his $10MM salary (doubtful, since Edmonds actually will be worth ten mil in ’07).  Mike Cameron would be available if the Padres buy out his $7MM option.  Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton, Preston Wilson (three-year club option), Jay Payton, and Dave Roberts can all be free agents if they aren’t signed to extensions.

Edmonds and Pierre figure to be out of the Twins’ range, so if they let Hunter go they’ll probably go for a second-tier option like Payton or Roberts.  Which, in my opinion, would actually be the ideal move.

With their pitching staff and some mild offensive upgrades, the Twins are unlikely to fall out of contention before the trading deadline.  So I would imagine that Hunter stays put.  Terry Ryan does have some salary dumps to his credit: Rick Aguilera, Scott Erickson, and Kevin Tapani in 1995, Dave Hollins in 1996 (for David Ortiz!), and Roberto Kelly in 1997.  (Source: Will Young at Baseball Think Factory).

The salary dumps, however, were before the Twins started competing.  Ryan would probably be killed by Twins fans if the team is in the hunt this summer and he trades Hunter for prospects.  Still, a desperate Bill Stoneman or Jim Bowden could make Ryan an offer he can’t refuse.  It’s a longshot, but I can envision a scenario in which Darin Erstad gets hurt and the team doesn’t want to throw Chone Figgins or Juan Rivera out there.       

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Angels Interested In Ruben Sierra

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Hold on to your hats, kids – the Angels almost acquired Ruben Sierra the other day.  The L.A. Times has made it known that the Halos need a lefty bat off the bench and are willing to part with Esteban Yan or Kevin Gregg.  Apparently one of those two intrigues the Twins enough to toss Sierra their way. 

That plan may have been dashed by Sierra’s strained hamstring, however.  At this point it’s possible that the Twinkies release him and give his spot to Jason Kubel (fantasy leaguers, take note).  If Sierra isn’t released, he’ll start the season on the DL.  So the Angels may have to look for another trading partner for their swap.

Halos Heaven also indicates that Tampa Bay could make a play for one of the relievers.  Yan was decent for the D-Rays back in 2001-02, and the loss of Shinji Mori creates a need.

In addition, the Angels plan to trade Chris Bootcheck early in the season for whatever needs arise.  The 27 year-old righty has only seen 29 innings of Major League action.  The former college pick has been a disappointment thus far, posting a 5.42 ERA in his fourth try at Triple A. 

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Weaver Signs With Angels

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The Angels’ deal for Jeff Weaver is finalized for one year and $8.5MM, $9MM with incentives.  He’ll be joining Angels pitchers and catchers in Phoenix on Thursday, according to the L.A. Times.

The article also mentions that Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras, said Weaver left better offers on the table.  No doubt Boras and Weaver are trying to execute the strategy that worked so well for Kevin Millwood.  The move pushes Hector Carrasco to the bullpen. 

Halos Heaven Holds Steady On Weaver

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The author of the Halos Heaven blog still says "the ink is dry" on Jeff Weaver’s contract with the Angels.  The blog originally reported that the announcement would be made on February 6th, and now states that negotiations over the second year have held up the deal.  I know from experience that assigning a date to a rumored signing really brings out the critics if it doesn’t hold. 

Anyway, I just wanted to pass along the info.

Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Angels Sign Weaver?

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I’m not entirely familiar with the Halos Heaven blog quite yet, but the author is saying Jeff Weaver signing with the Angels is a done deal.  In their words: "the ink is dry."

Also, check out the latest Manny rumor in the same post.  While not quite the polar opposite of supposed offer that heavily favored the Red Sox, this one would definitely be a win for Los Angeles.  But if the Angels were willing to take on Manny’s entire contract, an offer of Escobar, Shell, and Rivera plus one top Angels prospect seems equitable.

Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny

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In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors.  He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.

Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor."  Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though.  Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors."  Why try to identify the source?  Too much work. 

According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks."  OK.  But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu.  Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure.  While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.

If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value.  They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.

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