Rumor Roundup
Another day, another rumor roundup. Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.
The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason. I guess this could help next year’s push for third place. Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me. Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.
The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt. If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?
The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent. The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season. Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.
Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago. Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).
Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.
Angels Trade Rumors: Alfonso Soriano and More
I spoke to my Angels source recently, and he had all sorts of good info about the team.
A recent hot surge has landed the Halos just two games out in the AL West. Because of this, GM Bill Stoneman is upping his demands and won’t cave in and send any of his future stars to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano. The Angels are pleased with 28 year-old Juan Rivera and think he’s developing into a big bat in his own right. Rivera is hitting .277/.337/.505 on the season and has had a blistering July. Baseball Prospectus considers him most similar to Lou Piniella at the same age, though Rivera has more power.
Most of the Angels’ top prospects are untouchable: Nick Adenhart, Jose Arredondo, Howie Kendrick, Joe Saunders, and Brandon Wood won’t be moved (click their names to view their minor league stats this season). A couple of excellent young players who could be used in trades this month or in the offseason: Jeff Mathis and Erick Aybar. Aybar’s big league showcase didn’t generate the interest Stoneman wanted, and a Mathis became expendable with the emergence of Mike Napoli.
Some other players who have a good chance of being dealt are Brendan Donnelly, J.C. Romero, and Dallas McPherson. On McPherson, my source says he "would’ve been the centerpiece of a Soriano trade had he not been hurt." Mathis, Aybar, and McPherson will bring a fine bounty eventually, whereas the two relievers will be used more to acquire spare parts.
Jeff Weaver Traded To Cardinals
Breaking word is that Jeff Weaver has been dealt to the Cardinals for minor league outfielder Terry Evans plus cash considerations.
Evans is a 24 year-old outfielder currently hitting .307/.369/.640 in 75 ABs for the Cards’ Double A affiliate. He struggled in High Class A last year, but mastered the level in two months this season. He’s been described as the "out of nowhere prospect who mashed his way out of A ball" by Viva El Birdos.
Weaver is expected to join the team in Houston. News of this trade comes courtesy of Fox Sports Midwest. A week ago, I wrote about how Weaver has had terrible luck and his strikeout and walk rates are similar to expectations.
Special thanks to the St. Louis Swarm Softball organization for passing this along.
HalosHeaven: White Sox Interested In Figgins
Interesting post by our good friends at Halos Heaven. I can vouch that the author of this site has several solid, independent sources close to the organization.
A lot of interest in utility superstar Chone Figgins, who is hitting just .253/.322/.347 this year. Figgins draws a walk about 9% of the time, which is fine for a leadoff hitter if he can hit .290. Halos Heaven notes that if Ozzie Guillen elects Orlando Cabrera (.305/.364/.436) to the All-Star game, the relationship between the two teams could improve enough to facilitate a trade.
The Angels view Figgins as more expendable than Adam Kennedy, who has become the clubhouse leader. I’m told Kennedy desperately wants to stay in Southern California, and will offer the Padres or Dodgers a huge discount after this season. It does seem that Kennedy could block Howie Kendrick for the rest of the season.
The latest on Jeff Weaver is that he’ll be gone before the All-Star break, possibly back to the Dodgers. The Angels will eat his entire salary to get a decent bat in return.
Jeff Weaver’s Value Plunges
My best Angels source indicates that scouts from as many as eight teams were in attendance Tuesday night to watch Jeff Weaver pitch. Weaver didn’t rise to the occasion, taking his tenth loss after allowing six runs in just two innings to the Rockies.
Weaver’s been an absolute mess this year, thwarting Scott Boras’s attempt to replicate his success with Kevin Millwood. Boras didn’t find the right multiyear deal for Millwood before the 2005 season, so he settled for one year with the Indians. After Millwood had a career year, Boras got him a massive five-year contract. Weaver makes $8.3MM this year in a deal that seemed wise at the time.
The 29 year-old righty has given up a ridiculous number of hits this year in conjunction with way too many home runs. His strikeout and walk rates have remained fairly stable. Can any of his problems be attributed to team defense and/or bad luck? Weaver’s .332 BABIP exceeds his team’s .293 mark, so some of those extra hits could be random.
Another stat to check out is home runs per flyball. Ron Shandler’s work tells us that "pitchers do not have much control over the percentage of fly balls that turn into home runs." This figure tends to be about 10%, whereas Weaver is at 16.8% in 2006. That mark is the 9th worst in the game (browsing this list helps explain the unexpected misfortunes of several fine hurlers this season). Pitchers do control the number of flyballs they allow overall, and Weaver’s 2006 level does not differ dramatically from career norms.
Maybe this is a stretch, but if we substitute Weaver’s hit and HR rates with league average levels but hold everything else constant, his expected ERA comes all the way down to 3.84 with a 1.28 WHIP. That’s right about where we expected him to be this season, and it would’ve been a bargain. I have to think several teams realize that Weaver has not pitched as badly as it seems. Acquiring Weaver still makes sense for savvy teams like the Red Sox or Cardinals.
Ervin Santana Trade Hinges On Saunders, Colon
Today comes word from Halos Heaven that any deal of righty Ervin Santana will hinge on the performances of Bartolo Colon and Joe Saunders.
Slowed by a couple of surgeries in his career, Saunders is putting it together in Triple A for the first time. He’s got a 2.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts this year. He’d slot into the rotation in place of Santana. The Angels can deal from their strength, as this rotation could become:
Bartolo Colon
John Lackey
Kelvim Escobar
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
That is a deep group, with Jeff Weaver serving as a tolerable sixth starter for the rest of the season. He’s been decent in two starts this month, but could end up in the ‘pen. The Halos can have Saunders and Jeff Weaver competing for the fifth starter spot.
Halos Heaven mentions Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, and Vernon Wells as targets of Bill Stoneman. Stoneman has also had Alfonso Soriano, Manny Ramirez, Miguel Tejada, and Miguel Cabrera in his sights for months. It certainly seems that the Angels, currently five games back in the West, will acquire a big bat before the trading deadline.
D-Rays Shopping Crawford
Back on December 5th, a source close to Tampa Bay’s scouting department threw out the idea that Carl Crawford could be dealt. In particular, the Devil Rays had interest in 23 year-old righthander Ervin Santana. Despite new management since then, the rumor has picked up steam.
My source tells me that talks have resumed between the Devil Rays and Angels and the Halos may even consider adding a second prospect with Santana to acquire Crawford. Brandon Wood is a possibility.
The Rays would like to deal an outfielder now with a Delmon Young callup in the cards for September or Opening Day 2007.
In his sophomore season, Santana has sharpened his control and lessened his home run rate to become a solid #3 starter behind Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. Component ERA says Santana’s 4.32 ERA should actually be closer to 3.29 based on his peripherals.
Crawford is at .303/.349/.454 after 56 games, well ahead of PECOTA’s .287/.321/.426 projection. He’s signed for 2007-09 for a total of $17.5MM, while PECOTA puts his worth at about $21MM over those three seasons. The Rays know they can leverage their outfield surplus to add a solid young starter behind Scott Kazmir.
Angels Buzz
All sorts of good info coming from my Angels guy:
The Halos were recently close to a fairly big trade, but pulled back at the last minute. It may have been the much discussed Adam Kennedy for Shea Hillenbrand deal, but another one that was rumored to be close was Alfonso Soriano for Erick Aybar and Joe Saunders. The Soriano deal included a component where Jose Molina ended up a Yankee.
Now that Kendry Morales heated up and is holding his own in the middle of the L.A. lineup, the team plans on waiting until the All-Star break to make their move.
Also, word is that Arte Moreno has greenlighted Bill Stoneman for more salary room. Moreno craves Manny Ramirez or Miguel Tejada, someone who can truly make a difference of several wins for the Angels.
Finally, I’m told that Darin Erstad is "probably done for the season."
Howie Kendrick To Debut In May?
Just got word from a respected Angels source.
You may be wondering why Maicer Izturis has made four consecutive starts – at shortstop, third base, and even DH. Sure, he’s hitting well (5 for 15 with three steals). But this is Maicer Izturis here folks. He’s a .232/.299/.336 hitter in 300 career ABs. You don’t want him DHing.
The reason behind all the PT for Izturis is that he’s being shown off for scouts in attendance. The Angels are hunting for the right deal to make room for Howie Kendrick by mid-May. If they can’t find something they like for the 25 year-old Izturis, Edgardo Alfonzo may be waived. Not sure exactly how Adam Kennedy‘s playing time will be affected by the callup.
One Angels blog is so sure that Kenrick is on his way they are asking readers to guess the date and cause of his callup!
A little background on Kendrick: he’s an absolute hitting machine. The 22 year-old second baseman boasts a minor league line of .359/.404/.555. He doesn’t draw walks, but he doesn’t need to. Through 57 ABs in 2006, Kendrick’s .386 average ranks 8th in the Pacific Coast League.
PECOTA calls Kendrick the best prospect in baseball. Said Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver:
"Since 1998, there are 54 players (including major leaguers) who posted a translated BA of .300 or better in a season in which they were age 22 or younger (minimum 300 AB). Only seven of those players made the list twice:
Sean Burroughs
Miguel Cabrera
Howie Kendrick
Joe Mauer
Albert Pujols
Tony Torcato
David Wright
Cabrera, Wright, Mauer and Pujols presently rate among the ten most valuable commodities in baseball. Burroughs and Tony Torcato were abject failures, but Kendrick has significantly more power and runs significantly better than either of them. In any event, those are pretty good odds."
The Torii Hunter Situation
I noticed in the Star Tribune yesterday that Torii Hunter, the Twins’ highest paid player, "has expressed doubts the team will pick up his $12MM option for 2007." The Twins have the option of buying the option out for $2MM.
Hunter is, of course, only the highest-paid Twin in 2006 because the club backloaded Johan Santana‘s four-year deal. Santana will make $9MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, and $13.25MM in ’08. Without doing any research whatsoever, I’m guessing the last two years of Santana’s deal will be Twins records for salaries.
Tough to say whether the Twins will keep Hunter around for $12MM or pay $2MM to be off the hook. Will Hunter be worth that much money when he enters his age 31 season in 2007? Baseball Prospectus says no, valuing him at just $4,575,000 for that year. In fact, they think he’s only going to be worth $12MM for all of 2006-10.
However, their numbers don’t really take into account the center fielder market for the 2006-07 offseason. Jim Edmonds will be available if Walt Jocketty chooses his $3MM buyout over his $10MM salary (doubtful, since Edmonds actually will be worth ten mil in ’07). Mike Cameron would be available if the Padres buy out his $7MM option. Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton, Preston Wilson (three-year club option), Jay Payton, and Dave Roberts can all be free agents if they aren’t signed to extensions.
Edmonds and Pierre figure to be out of the Twins’ range, so if they let Hunter go they’ll probably go for a second-tier option like Payton or Roberts. Which, in my opinion, would actually be the ideal move.
With their pitching staff and some mild offensive upgrades, the Twins are unlikely to fall out of contention before the trading deadline. So I would imagine that Hunter stays put. Terry Ryan does have some salary dumps to his credit: Rick Aguilera, Scott Erickson, and Kevin Tapani in 1995, Dave Hollins in 1996 (for David Ortiz!), and Roberto Kelly in 1997. (Source: Will Young at Baseball Think Factory).
The salary dumps, however, were before the Twins started competing. Ryan would probably be killed by Twins fans if the team is in the hunt this summer and he trades Hunter for prospects. Still, a desperate Bill Stoneman or Jim Bowden could make Ryan an offer he can’t refuse. It’s a longshot, but I can envision a scenario in which Darin Erstad gets hurt and the team doesn’t want to throw Chone Figgins or Juan Rivera out there.