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Dodgers Serious About Andruw Jones

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Bill Shaikin has a small note in today’s column:

Scott Boras is believed to consider the Dodgers a more serious contender for center fielder Andruw Jones than for Alex Rodriguez.

It’s not the first time we’ve seen the Dodgers linked to Jones; David O’Brien suggested it several weeks ago.

Ned Colletti, you may recall, wasn’t exactly thrilled with Scott Boras a year ago when J.D. Drew unexpectedly opted out.  But it sounded like much of his anger was directed at Drew.  Boras seems to disagree with the notion that Jones should come with a significant price cut this winter.  Before the season he was talking about $20MM annually.  He’d still want at least $15MM per year.

The signing could leave the Dodgers with an outfield of Juan Pierre, Jones, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier.  One of the last two could be peddled, and the team might have soured on Kemp a bit.  How about Kemp for Miguel Tejada? 

A-Rod Aftermath

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Lost in the shuffle of Alex Rodriguez’s opt-out media frenzy – the Yankees should be able to snag some nice draft picks for him.  They’ll undoubtedly offer him arbitration, and he’ll decline that offer.  If that does happen and he’s signed by the Cubs, Tigers, Mets, Angels, or Red Sox, the Yankees will get that team’s first-round pick.  The Giants and Dodgers’ first round picks are protected however.

Joel Sherman names the Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, and Tigers as teams to watch in this bidding war.  Kat O’Brien adds the White Sox to the mix, while Peter Abraham adds the Giants.  My best guess is the Halos.  Another thought – does it have to be Lowell or A-Rod for Boston?  Couldn’t it be both if they believe Rodriguez can play a capable shortstop?

Odds and Ends: Hunter, A-Rod, Bedard

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Sunday morning minor rumor collection…

  • There’s always some skepticism from readers regarding Charley Walters rumors.  Nonetheless I’ll report that he names the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams that will bid for Torii Hunter.  I don’t see the Braves getting involved at $15MM per.  And are the Dodgers ready to move Juan Pierre to left field already?  The other clubs named seem reasonable.
  • As expected, the Cardinals interviewed Chris Antonetti for their open GM position.  No doubt it’s an attractive position but you have to wonder what kind of autonomy he’d have with Tony La Russa around.
  • Larry LaRue makes the case for the Mariners tendering a contract to Horacio Ramirez.  He also notes that Jose Guillen is as good as gone and the Ms won’t consider A-Rod.
  • Speaking of that guy, Bill Price suggests the Mets should sign him and move David Wright to first base.  Carlos Delgado I suppose would be a very expensive pinch-hitter in 2008. 
  • Nick Cafardo expects the Orioles to shop Miguel Tejada this winter, which would surprise no one.  But he’s also hearing that Erik Bedard could be available.  Trades of either might be unpopular with the fanbase.  The trade market for starters could be hopping if Johan Santana, Bedard, and C.C. Sabathia are made available.
  • Joel Sherman says Koji Uehara is a free agent, but we have heard differently.  Anyway, the success of Hideki Okajima may create a minor bidding war for Hitoki Iwase.

State Of The Dodgers

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The L.A. Daily News’ Tony Jackson has a look at the Dodgers’ upcoming offseason.  You also might be interested in my recent Needs and Luxuries post on the team.  A summary of Jackson’s column:

  • Juan Pierre could be shifted to left field to allow the Dodgers to employ a stronger arm in center field.  It’s odd…teams seem to be souring on last winter’s signings even when they received exactly what everyone expected (Pierre and Jason Marquis, for example).  It’d be different for the Red Sox to sour on J.D. Drew, he played well below expectations in Year 1.  Anyway, Pierre could be moved to accomodate Matt Kemp (perhaps putting Andre Ethier in right), or the Dodgers could pursue a center fielder.  They’ve already been connected to Andruw Jones.
  • The Dodgers perceive third base as a big hole, apparently not willing to give Andy LaRoche another look.  Of course we have to mention Alex Rodriguez.  But how about Mike Lowell?
  • The Dodgers will pass on options for Ramon Martinez and Randy Wolf, but might consider Mike Lieberthal at $1.5MM.  Liebs could earn almost $40K per game next year, not too shabby.
  • L.A. has a couple of non-tender candidates: Mark Hendrickson and Chin-hui Tsao.  Apparently they will keep Hendrickson but cut Tsao loose.

Braves Notes: Hampton, Lowry, Andruw

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Mike Hampton makes $15MM next year, and the Braves aren’t getting any relief from the Rockies or Marlins.  However, it turns out the Braves actually spread around those payments so that they’d pay out about $8MM to Hampton in each year of the deal.

This is confirmed by Bill Shanks of Scout.com, for starters.  Shanks notes that the Braves owe $8.25MM to Hampton next year because of amortization.  I’ve heard that David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said something similar in the comments of one of his blog posts, but it’s been buried somewhere.  Bottom line, the Braves have $7MM more than we thought they did.  A $95MM payroll would give Atlanta some wiggle room to add a starter.

It’s not a stretch to add Tom Glavine, with this new information.  However, O’Brien thinks the Braves need more.  While Dan Haren or Joe Blanton may be out of reach, Noah Lowry seems a more realistic target.  The point is to find a decent young controllable arm.

O’Brien’s also got some early interested parties in Andruw Jones: the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, White Sox, Nationals, Phillies, and Mets.  Seems like the idea of moving Beltran to right field has been discussed within the Mets organization.  The Dodgers, I imagine, would shift Juan Pierre to left field. 

Needs and Luxuries: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Next up in the series, the Dodgers.  You can view all the Needs and Luxuries posts here.

C – Russell Martin
1B – James Loney
2B – Jeff Kent
SS – Rafael Furcal
3B – Andy LaRoche/Nomar Garciaparra
LF – Andre Ethier
CF – Juan Pierre
RF – Matt Kemp

SP – Brad Penny
SP – Derek Lowe
SP – Chad Billingsley
SP – Esteban Loaiza
SP – Jason Schmidt/Mark Hendrickson/Hong-Chih Kuo

Setup: Jonathan Broxton
Closer: Takashi Saito

Needs

The Dodgers need some power; their .406 team SLG ranked 13th in the NL.  $108MM should buy better than that.  Fortunately, power will be added without acquiring anyone.

Rafael Furcal should slug better than 2007’s .355 mark.  He was at .445 in ’06 (.564 after the break).  Furcal sprained his ankle in a March ’07 game, and it bothered him all year.  He’s a tough guy, and played through it.  He won’t have surgery, but an offseason of rest and an upcoming walk year should get him back to normal for ’08.

Luis Gonzalez slugged only .433, not enough for a corner outfielder.  He won’t be back; his absence should allow Matt Kemp to reach 500 ABs (Kemp slugged .521 this year).

Nomar Garciaparra was pitiful at .371.  He did slug .463 in the second half, so maybe he can return to respectability.  Grady Little needs a quick trigger finger to go to LaRoche, whose 2008 SLG is projected at .483 by PECOTA.

So, I question the notion that the Dodgers need a power bat.  However, it sure as hell wouldn’t hurt.  How about having Ethier becoming one of the game’s most capable fourth outfielders, and importing a left fielder with power?  Adam Dunn, Jason Bay, Barry Bonds, or Manny Ramirez could be blockbuster acquisitions.  What about A-Rod?  As with any team that can afford him, he’d be the best possible acquisition.

Kent’s on board for $9MM in ’08, but there has been speculation that he might not return.  Not sure if that means retirement or a trade demand.  But if second base opens up, Tony Abreu seems a capable replacement.  For this reason, Kent could almost be considered a luxury (he’d be easier to trade if he was a better clubhouse guy).

Luxuries

I like the front end of the bullpen a lot, even more so with Jonathan Meloan close to contributing.  No need to sign pricey relievers, though I wouldn’t trade from this strength.

The Dodgers had an above average rotation in 2007 despite injuries.  Penny, Lowe, and Billingsley is an excellent playoff core.  The Dodgers hope to recoup some of the Schmidt investment.  Loaiza is making $7MM, so he gets first crack at the fifth starter job.  Hopefully, as with Nomar, Little isn’t overly patient because of salary. 

Wild card: the Dodgers have the two best left-handed starting prospects in the game in Scott Elbert and Clayton Kershaw.  Elbert is more of a question mark given June arthroscopic shoulder surgery.  Kershaw could definitely make an ’08 impact.

Randy Wolf wants to come back on the cheap, and Ned Colletti shouldn’t pass that up.  More starting pitching depth is always a good thing.  That said, I wouldn’t start dealing from this possible strength either.

The emergence of Chin-Lung Hu as one of the game’s top shortstop prospects may make Furcal expendable.  Furcal is still plenty valuable despite an off-year.  As I said earlier, a healthy Furcal in his walk year should really bounce back.  It makes sense to trade Furcal in June if he re-establishes his value and Hu keeps hitting at Triple A.  At that time, Colletti can assess his biggest need, perhaps getting that power bat if someone’s hurt or underproducing.

This is a strong team that should win a lot more than 82 games if the young players aren’t benched for inferior veterans.

Kemp/Kershaw for Santana

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Well it’s what I call an "official possibility" now.  In his ESPN.com chat yesterday afternoon, Jonah Keri of Page 2 confirmed the Johan Santana for Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw rumor that’s been generating a lot of buzz here at MLBTR.  Let’s discuss, shall we? 

Kemp and Kershaw both have 6 years before they reach free agency.  Santana has 1.  There’s the obvious red flag right there, Dodgers fans.  But if Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti wants to win now, and he usually does, Santana could be the golden ticket.  I shudder to think of how dominant Santana could be not only in the NL but also in Dodgers Stadium.

If you’re the Twins, and you know you can’t afford Santana, I think this is a no-brainer.   Especially if (big if) you think you have Francisco Liriano returning to form.

The question remains:  Is an ace like Johan what the Dodgers need to win?  I’m not so sure.  They’re rotation has been solidified by the emergence of Chad Billingsley.  With a scrapheap lineup of Gonzo, Nomar, and Pierre, Matt Kemp could become their best hitter as early as… tonight.

 

Posted By: Nat Boyle

Dodgers Willing To Trade Matt Kemp?

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Matt Kemp is an incredibly valuable player.  Some would argue he’s worth more than $50MM over the next three seasons of his career, and he’ll cost a few million bucks.  Then there’s Bill Plaschke, who feels Kemp’s power and speed "have been negated by silly at-bats and baserunning mistakes."  By my calculation Kemp would have to make 742 baserunning mistakes per year to negate his .331/.364/.509 line. 

Plaschke has insider sources indicating that the Dodgers think their best chance to win would be to trade a very good young player like Kemp for a veteran.  U.S.S. Mariner recently noted just how dangerous the Dodgers’ recent brand of "pro-veteran entitlement" can be.

The question then becomes: which teams match up for Kemp?  The Dodgers seem to want a veteran position player, and I imagine the guy would have to be under contract for at least two seasons and probably three.  Third base and the outfield corners might be the openings.

Third basemen who could work include Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, and Scott Rolen.  I assume Garrett Atkins is too young.  Miguel Tejada could work here also.  In the outfield maybe Ken Griffey Jr. or David DeJesus would fit.  Dodger fans – do you have confidence in Ned Colletti to spin Kemp into an equally valuable veteran?

Wolf Hopes To Return To Dodgers In ’08

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According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Randy Wolf would like to return to the Dodgers for the 2008 season.  Last winter, the Dodgers snagged Wolf on a below-market $8MM deal with a $9MM club option for ’08.  Wolf expects them to decline the option.  His season was abbreviated by shoulder surgery.

As Hernandez mentions, the Dodgers appear to be set with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt, Chad Billingsley, and Esteban Loaiza for the ’08 rotation.  But how many times have we seen a team go all year starting only its Opening Day five?  Wolf at $4-5MM is an excellent signing.  He says he feels like he didn’t even have surgery.

The Dodgers should sign Wolf, and then use he or Loaiza in relief until a spot opens up.  Penny always wears down; maybe the Dodgers could use their sixth man to get him an extra day’s rest more often.  Billingsley might pitch around 150 innings this year, meaning you wouldn’t want to take him past 180 in ’08.  Loaiza and Schmidt are both obvious health risks.  Hopefully Ned Colletti doesn’t pass on a bargain-priced Wolf to add depth for ’08.

Saito Hopes To Pitch In 2008

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According to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, Takashi Saito wants to pitch a third season for the Dodgers in 2008.  With a 1.73 ERA in 135 career innings, Saito’s finishing up perhaps the best-ever two-season run by a Japanese pitcher.  Some folks are comparing him to Dennis Eckersley, though Saito doesn’t know who that is (hat tip to East Windup Chronicle).

Hernandez questions how Saito would react if another team were to offer him more money.  However, I don’t think that’s an issue here.  As he was last year, Saito is tied to the Dodgers by his service time.  He’s not a free agent this winter.

The massive success of Saito, Hideki Ojakima, and others can only lead to an increase in demand for Japanese relievers – especially given the low salaries.  Take free agent Koji Uehara.  Mike Plugh told me there’s no reason for MLB teams to consider him as a reliever even though he’s closed for all of 2007.  However, a recent Yahoo Japan article quotes an NL scout who thinks he would have more success in the pen.

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