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2007 Los Angeles Dodgers

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I received several requests for the Dodgers to be covered in the next 2007 Team Outlook.

Ned Colletti’s contract obligations:

C – Russell Martin – $0.33MM
C –
1B – James Loney – $0.33MM
2B – Jeff Kent – $9MM
SS – Rafael Furcal – $13MM
3B – Wilson Betemit – $0.345MM/Andy LaRoche – $0.33MM
IF – Olmedo Saenz – $1MM
LF – Andre Ethier – $0.33MM
CF – Jason Repko – $0.338MM/Matt Kemp – $0.33MM
RF – J.D. Drew – $11MM
OF – Marlon Anderson – $0.925MM
OF – Jayson Werth – $0.355MM

SP – Derek Lowe – $9.5MM
SP – Brad Penny – $7.5MM
SP – Hong-Chih Kuo – $0.3275MM
SP – Chad Billingsley – $0.33MM
SP – Mark Hendrickson – $2MM

RP – Brett Tomko – $4.1MM
RP – Jonathan Broxton – $0.33MM
RP – Elmer Dessens – $1.7MM (paid by KC)
RP – Yhency Brazoban – $0.345MM
RP – Takashi Saito – $0.33MM
RP – Greg Miller – $0.33MM
RP –

Buyouts:
RP – Eric Gagne – $1MM
OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – $0.3MM

Nontender candidates:
C – Toby Hall – $2.5MM

Injured players:
3B – Bill Mueller – $4.5MM (hopes for an experimental knee treatment to allow him to play)

Ballpark estimate: $70MM tied up.  This team came into 2006 with a $98MM payroll, so money will be spent again.

I put down Hall as a nontender candidate as most teams don’t pay a backup catcher that much money.  He did hit surprisingly well in his very limited Dodger sample.  Perhaps they’ll keep him and make a trade?

Try Loney at first, or resign Nomar?  It’s worth noting that Garciaparra’s big comeback season was exactly league average for first base.  Plus he only played three-quarters of the team’s games.  I think Loney will be worse than that, but not terribly so.  If you choose the kid, you’ve got to upgrade in a few of the other open spots.

One of those open spots is 3B.  Bill Mueller looks like a no go for 2007, so we’re looking at some combination of Betemit and young Andy LaRoche.  The Dodgers hope LaRoche will be fully healed from labrum surgery of the throwing shoulder by spring training. 

They probably don’t want to block LaRoche for four years, which takes A-Rod out of the picture.  If you use that logic, though, Aramis Ramirez becomes unlikely as well.  Perhaps Colletti would sign Ramirez and worry about LaRoche later.  In that case he’ll be competing with the Angels and several other clubs for the best free agent 3B.  Yet another route would be Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura, said to be admired by the Padres. 

The Dodgers have similar situations in left and center field: kids who might be capable but could have growing pains.  What to make of Ethier’s second half (.277/.337/.429)?  Fine for a young kid but probably not the starting left fielder on a big budget team.  (Matt Murton, ahem).  Kemp’s CF defense has been panned, and Repko/Werth don’t look like starters. 

Should Colletti deal Scott Elbert or one of his other talented prospects, perhaps the Dodgers could acquire Vernon Wells or Andruw Jones for center field.  Otherwise Jim Edmonds seems like a reasonable signing.

With the quasi-openings at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF, Colletti will probably bring in several veteran free agents as he did for 2006.  I can’t see the Dodgers going with young players in more than two of those four spots.

For the starting rotation, we know that Colletti would like to bring Maddux back for a full season. Such a move would probably push Hendrickson to the pen.  A related scenario: trade the frustrating Penny to fill a position, and then go after Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito.  How about Penny to Houston for Morgan Ensberg?  To the Rangers for Hank Blalock?  To Cincy for Adam Dunn?  Tell me your ideas in the comments. 

Should a starter struggle or get hurt, the Dodgers will have Hendrickson and Tomko at the ready to fill in.  And if Elbert harnesses his control he could join the rotation by summertime.

The bullpen looks solid, and the Dodgers don’t need the frustration of Eric Gagne.  For a big-time discount, maybe, but they’ll be fine without him assuming Saito stays and Brazoban is healthy.  Tomko is a candidate to be dealt, as he’ll probably be unhappy as a middle reliever.

With $30MM to spend, Colletti might be able to acquire Edmonds, Schmidt, and someone like Rich Aurilia to play some third and first.  If youngsters like Kemp, LaRoche, and Loney prove worthy they can get plenty of ABs too for this fragile team.

Posting Possibility: Kei Igawa

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Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan.  He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games. 

Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied.  While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea.  There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start.  If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.

Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me.  Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace.  American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent. 

Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s.  If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually.  Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers.  Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week. 

Daisuke Matsuzaka Video

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A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches.  It’s the best look I’ve had at his breaking ball.  It might be a screwball or something weird, but let’s remember that Jeff Passan has established that it’s not a gyroball.

When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions.  Here’s a rundown on the suitors:

This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan.  As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this.  Newsday tells us the Mets will be aggressive in their pursuit.  The Rangers are scouting Matsuzaka as well.  The Orioles expressed interest in August.   

The Dodgers and Mariners are often linked to Matsuzaka, but I haven’t seen anything lately on those clubs.

Trade To Padres Likely For David Wells

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As you well know, the Padres are the frontrunners to acquire David Wells by midnight tonight.  The name that’s been bandied about is catcher George Kottaras.  Keep an eye on tonight’s 7:05 contest between the Portland Beavers and the Fresno Grizzlies to see whether Kottaras starts for the Beavers.  If not, he’s probably the guy.  He went 0 for 4 last night.  According to the Boston Globe, the Dodgers could have Wells if they would step in with one of Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, or James Loney. 

Here’s the tricky part.  Based on info from a Steve Phillips article a year ago, I learned that "all 40-man roster players must go through waivers in order to change teams even if they are in the minor leagues."  All four prospects mentioned above are indeed on the 40-man roster.  So how does this work?  The key, I believe, is slipping the player through as a player to be named later.  The rule for waiver trades is that the PTBNL cannot be an active Major League player.  So, the Red Sox can acquire a top-notch prospect in exchange for Wells if they are willing to wait until spring to see him in a Sox uniform.  I think these rules debunk the notion that the Red Sox could somehow acquire Adam Wainwright in a deal.  It’s a moot point, as Wells won’t play in St. Louis.   

The Padres are three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.  San Diego currently holds a half-game lead over the Phillies for the wild card.  If the Padres were to sneak into the playoffs once again, their playoff rotation would boast Jake Peavy, Chris Young, David Wells, and Woody Williams.  All have pitched decently or better this month; it would be a fairly deep group.  And fifth starter Clay Hensley has a 1.82 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this month, so maybe he’d be in the mix instead of Williams.

Red Sox Ask For Matt Kemp In David Wells Deal

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According to both the Boston Herald and the Los Angeles Daily News, the Red Sox have asked for 21 year-old outfielder Matt Kemp in exchange for David Wells.

Tony Jackson of the L.A. paper actually suggests that the Red Sox requested a package of prospects including Kemp.  As in, more than just Kemp.  Jackson states that the request "probably makes the deal impossible unless Boston general manager Theo Epstein reduces his asking price."

That’s an understatement.  Six years of Matt Kemp for a month or two of David Wells?  That’d be even worse than two or three months of an infielder you don’t really need in exchange for Joel Guzman.  The Dodgers are also talking about adding John Mabry, for some reason.

Kemp turns 22 in September.  Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein named him as the fourth-best center field prospect in the game, behind Cameron Maybin, Chris Young, and Justin Upton.  Most of those will be household names in two or three years.  Goldstein mentions that Kemp’s size could force a move to a corner outfield position eventually.  Much has been made of Kemp’s power outage at Triple A, where he has three home runs in 43 games.  However, he’s still slugging .554 due to 14 doubles and six triples.  The power is fine. His plate discipline may need a little fine-tuning though.

Another reason Kemp and other top-flight prospects are probably staying put: anyone on the 40-man roster has to pass through waivers.  Why would the 29 other teams allow a stud outfield prospect to pass by unclaimed?  That would be one hell of a gentleman’s agreement. 

 

Julio Lugo Traded To Dodgers

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Word comes via ESPN that the Dodgers have acquired Julio Lugo for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza.

I definitely didn’t see this one coming.  Jeff Kent should begin swinging a bat right around now after hitting the DL with an oblique strain on July 18th.  The Lugo acquisition gives the Dodgers excellent depth in their infield.  Former second base fill-ins Willy Aybar and Cesar Izturis have been sent out in other, solid deals.  Once Kent is 100% and ready to play Wilson Betemit becomes an excellent bench player for the rest of the year.  He’d still remain the second baseman of the future.

ESPN: Dodgers Want Maddux

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A report from ESPN’s Amy Nelson indicates that the Dodgers are the "hottest team on Greg Maddux."  According to Nelson:

"The deal would be two L.A. prospects for Maddux; one would be a position player, the other a pitcher. And both would be high-level, likely coming from their loaded Triple-A team in Las Vegas."

Well, let’s have a look at Las Vegas’s roster.  I could see Delwyn Young as a part of this, and maybe Hong-Chih Kuo as the pitcher.  Southpaw starter Greg Miller would be an impressive bounty.  Anything above that – Andy LaRoche, Joel Guzman, or Matt Kemp – seems highly unlikely to me.  Nelson mentions that the quality of the prospects involved increases the more the Cubs pay Maddux’s salary.  About $3.2MM remains; the Cubs should really just eat all of it and get one top-notch prospect. 

Probably meaningless tidbit: Guzman sat out tonight’s wild affair against Iowa.

Miguel Tejada Trade Update

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Next up, Miggy.  Tejada got cold feet yesterday, saying that he wanted to stay in Baltimore and didn’t want to move to third base.

Also, the Orioles have rejected the offer of Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. Seems foolish.  According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun:

"If the Angels added another prospect to their package of Santana and Aybar, like possibly first base prospect Casey Kotchman, the trade could be completed. It is believed that the Angels’ top two offensive prospects – Double-A shortstop Brandon Wood and second baseman Howie Kendrick – are not available."

Angelos!  We are talking about a young, established, effective starter in Santana.  Don’t let this one slip away.  Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Washington Post adds Nick Adenhart’s name to the mix as the possible third player coming from L.A.  My Angels source had named Adenhart as an untouchable player back on July 13th.

The Astros came in with a fairly weak offer of Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, and Fernando Nieve, as Will Carroll mentioned yesterday.  Zrebiec tells us that Baltimore turned this one down but is still talking with Tim Purpura.  Zrebiec calls Houston one of the favorites at this point.

The Rangers are in the game with Hank Blalock and prospects available, which would create a logjam at third for the Orioles.  The Dodgers are offering Cesar Izturis and prospects, and Rafael Furcal’s name has come up as well.

Braves Swap Betemit For Baez, Aybar

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I step out for a twenty minute jog, and another deal goes down.  Ned Colletti and the Dodgers made a nice move by snagging Wilson Betemit from the Braves for Willy Aybar and Danys Baez.

The Braves add another free-agent-to-be reliever with closer credentials in Baez.  While the 28 year-old has been more hittable than ever this season, he’s compensated by posting career-low walk and home run run rates.  The hits may stem from a strikeout rate that’s become dangerously low at just 5.26 per nine innings.  While Baez is a decent reliever overall, he’s not the shutdown guy the Braves needed to differentiate their bullpen.

In Betemit, the Dodgers get an acceptable stopgap at third base for the rest of the season.  More importantly, though, they’ve acquired a young, cheap second base candidate who could put up an .800 OPS in regular duty for several years. 

Willy Aybar profiles as a poor man’s Betemit and profiles as more of a utility infielder.  There’s a good chance Willy can commiserate with his brother Erick soon enough.  Erick is the Angels’ primary trade bait. 

Seems like John Schuerholz and Wayne Krivsky are a step behind the other GMs lately, trading away solid, affordable regulars for very questionable bullpen help.

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