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Royals Trade Dessens, Graffanino

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Busy day for Dayton Moore, as he acquired all sorts of pitchers for his veterans.

Let’s start with his first trade: Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers for Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel, Odalis Perez, and cash.  If you’re like me, you’ve never heard of Johnson or Pimentel, so let’s start there.

Pimentel and Johnson were ranked 16th and 17th among Dodgers prospects entering the 2006 season by Baseball America.  Pimentel is a 20 year-old converted outfielder currently struggling in High Class A.  Pimentel’s teammate Blake Johnson is a 21 year-old righty who was drafted in the second round in ’04.  Just a couple of live arms to help the Royals’ system; collect enough and someone’s bound to pan out.

Odalis Perez is an intriguing pickup for a team like the Royals.  He immediately becomes their most talented pitcher despite his awful 2006.  Looking at his peripherals, his strikeout rate dropped this season and his hits allowed skyrocketed.  Perez’s control remains excellent.  The southpaw had mixed results in the World Baseball Classic this March.  He claimed to be in the best shape of his life in February following an ’05 season marred by an oblique strain, shoulder inflammation, and biceps tendinitis.

Financials: Perez is due around $2.75MM for the rest of this season, $7.75MM next season, and a $1.5MM buyout for ’08 if the Royals don’t want him for $9MM.  Of that $12MM, the Dodgers are paying $8MM.  That leaves KC with just a $4MM obligation to Perez for the rest of this year and his age 29 season.  He’s projected to be worth that much in ’07 alone, and the Royals don’t have much to lose. 

As for Dessens, he’s your run-of-the-mill 34 year-old reliever.  He’ll earn roughly $640,000 for the rest of ’06 and $1.7MM next year.

The Royals also shipped Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for Jorge De La Rosa.  De La Rosa, a 25 year-old southpaw, has fared poorly in the Majors with a 5.12 ERA in 65 innings.  He was traded to the Diamondbacks in the Curt Schilling deal in ’03 and then bounced to the Brewers in the Richie Sexson trade a few days later.  De La Rosa has dealt with elbow and control issues (they go hand in hand), but he’s still got a bit of promise.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left

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To begin with, this just isn’t true.  With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud.  That honor belongs to 2005 for sure.  The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.

Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest.  The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers.  In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb.  Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.

Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base.  Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.

Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more. 

Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens.  The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.

Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez?  Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto?  How about the Rockies?

What Could Greg Maddux Bring?

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Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux.  The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation.  Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching. 

Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year.  His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple.  The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003.  The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine.  I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball.  At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance.  Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.

Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver.  He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth.  He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.

If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job.  For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart.  He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future.  The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres.  Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.

Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season.  It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.

 

White Sox Content With Current Team

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I recently spoke with my best White Sox source.  There’s nothing terribly exciting brewing with the club right now:

The Sox are content with their personnel this year, even more than a year ago.  They’re happy with their depth and probably will not make any major deals before the deadline (ie, Andruw Jones is highly unlikely).

If they are to make a small trade, the White Sox match up well with sabermetric-type teams.  Kenny Williams has made minor but helpful trades recently with Boston (David Riske) and Arizona (Alex Cintron).  (And of course another not-so-small trade with Josh Byrnes for Javier Vazquez).  It wouldn’t be surprising to see another small trade with that type of club.  Chicago has been middle of the pack as far as relievers’ ERA, so the ’pen may have room for upgrade.

On an unrelated note, my source also indicated that the Dodgers are "kicking a lot of tires right now" and may acquire bullpen help this week.

D-Rays Complete Deal With Dodgers

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After successfully completing the Danys Baez trade in January, the Dodgers and Devil Rays have matched up again on a multi-player swap.  This time L.A. sent Jae Seo, Dioner Navarro, and a PTBNL to the D-Rays for Toby Hall and Mark Hendrickson.

With a .258 batting average on balls in play, Hendrickson has been the 11th luckiest starter in baseball this year.  Given the D-Rays’ team BABIP of .316, we can be fairly confident that the 32 year-old southpaw will not maintain his hit rate of 8.13 per nine.  His peripherals are otherwise unimpressive – 3.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9.  Prior to this season, Hendrickson had allowed almost 11 hits per nine innings in the Majors.  His control is better than this, but he’s in for a steep decline overall. 

Despite an ERA near 6, I’m not sure Jae Seo is much worse than Hendrickson.  Though no one seems to trust Seo to succeed, he has managed a 3.85 career ERA in almost 400 innings leading up to this season.  Hendrickson doesn’t seem like a significant upgrade, especially half a season worth of him.

The exchange of Toby Hall for Dioner Navarro is another clear win for Tampa Bay.  Navarro is still just 22 and hasn’t had a full trial in the Majors.  Any backstop that young who can draw a walk 10% of the time has value.

I think this is a disappointing move for the Dodgers.  While it’s true they may not miss Navarro or Seo, Hendrickson is not the #3 starter the team needs to run away with the NL West.

Do The Red Sox Need Izturis?

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It is apparent that Dodgers shortstop Cesar Izturis is available, as the Dodgers don’t have an opening for him at shortstop.  I would think that the overall health/performance shakiness of the entire infield would be enough for L.A. to keep Izturis around as a backup all season.

But the rumors persist, the main one being that the Red Sox are interested.  I have to wonder why.  The team already has a slick-fielding, walk-allergic shortstop, and his name is Alex Gonzalez.  I admit, Gonzalez had a terrible April with the bat.  But he’s had similar months in his career, so why not see if he can shake it off and hit his usual .240 with decent pop?  That’s all that was expected in the first place.

Now, if the Red Sox were jonesing to acquire, say, Julio Lugo, I’d understand.  A healthy Lugo would be worth a good three wins in the standings compared to Gonzo.  But Cesar Izturis is a .261/.295/.338 career hitter, and he’s signed through 2007.  Even if Gonzalez tanks and Izturis is himself, the team’s gain is minimal.  The Dodgers are going to want something decent in return for Izturis, so why bother?  They already gave up something decent to reacquire Tim Wakefield’s personal catcher.   

MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne

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Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne.  30 years old.  An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings.  Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter!  Roto Immortality.)  Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer.  A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007. 

With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option.  Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it.  The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster.  No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count.  Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season.  But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.

So which contending teams have questionable closers? 

Red Sox.  I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate.  He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then.  The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace.  Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree.  Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.   

White Sox.  Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now.  With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne.  His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time. 

Rangers.  Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.

Braves.  This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.   

Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon’s elbow gives out?  The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.

This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.

Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.      

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Dodgers Looking At Hidalgo?

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With Jayson Werth possibly out til May, the Dodgers are in the market for a good fourth outfielder.  Word is that Los Angeles is considering signing Richard Hidalgo to fill the role.  The source is an emailer citing 1540 The Ticket, a radio station in California.  Hidalgo was last seen entertaining offers to play in Japan.

Reportedly, the station’s related rumor is that the Dodgers could ship Joel Guzman and Greg Miller to the A’s for Barry Zito before picking up Hidalgo.  Despite what Billy Beane has said, a source of mine tells me that at least twelve teams have inquired about the southpaw.  Guzman is the Dodgers’ third best prospect according to Baseball America and ranks anywhere from 12th to 29th among all prospects. 

The Biggest Games. The Best Tickets. StubHub.com

Dodgers Still Interested In Dunn

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I did some digging in conjunction with my Adam Dunn post, and received a little bit of info.  A very reputable source tells me that "the Dodgers are always interested in him."  More than one team has inquired about Dunn for sure.  He tells me that any deal before the season begins is unlikely, and unfortunately couldn’t supply any specific names.

Dodger fans were quick to mention their team in the comments of the previous Dunn post; it seems he’s been on the team’s radar for some time now.  Consider this as another source verifying their interest.  Los Angeles has plenty of trading chips, especially if the Reds’ needs expand beyond starting pitching. 

UPDATE:  Word is that Dunn just signed a two-year contract worth more than $17MM with a third year option for $13MM.  Based on projections, I’d say the Reds (or any other team) will be likely to exercise that 2008 option.

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