Olney On Draft, Harper, Brewers
There's some concern among MLB executives that baseball is losing top athletes to other sports, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. It's possible that the next collective bargaining agreement will include a slotting system, but executives point out that slotted bonuses would have to be substantial to compare to the value of a college football or basketball scholarship. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:
- One GM told Olney that baseball's August trading system is "completely antiquated." Another GM admitted that he couldn't give Olney a good reason why players must pass through waivers to be traded in August.
- Nationals GM Mike Rizzo estimates that the team agreed to terms with first-overall pick Bryce Harper with about 26 seconds to spare before Monday night's deadline.
- Brewers GM Doug Melvin says he isn't going to give his veteran players away, but he's open to trading them to teams in contention. Melvin was speaking in general terms, but that approach presumably applies to Craig Counsell. The infielder has cleared waivers and is open to a trade.
Market For Craig Counsell
Brewers infielder Craig Counsell recently cleared waivers, suggesting no team was willing to take on the prorated portion of his $2.3MM salary (currently $600K). Counsell can now be traded to any team, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Brewers seek "a legit return." Rosenthal notes that the Brewers received Chris Dickerson for Jim Edmonds, though I'll point out that Edmonds was having a stronger season at a lower salary and did get claimed on waivers by multiple clubs. In terms of the Counsell market, Rosenthal says the Cardinals inquired and backed off while the Braves have yet to inquire.
Counsell, 40 in a few days, is hitting .246/.317/.305 in 188 plate appearances this season. He's mostly played on the left side of the infield this year, but has plenty of career experience at second base. Counsell has had a disappointing season, though it seems to amount to a dip in playing time and batting average. He's not a clear upgrade for a contender, so he could stay put unless the asking price drops in the 15 days leading up to the waiver trade deadline.
First-Rounder Rejects Brewers’ Offer
10:08pm: Covey's father confirmed to Haudricourt that the pitcher has Type 1 diabetes and will not sign with the Brewers. (all Twitter links). Baseball Beginnings first reported that Covey has diabetes (Twitter link). The family considers the news "crushing," but Covey can look to Brandon Morrow, a successful big league pitcher with diabetes, for inspiration.
9:24pm: Brewers scouting director Bruce Seid told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that 14th-overall pick Dylan Covey has turned down an offer from the team and will instead go to the University of San Diego. Seid says "it wasn't about money" with Covey, a 19-year-old right-hander.
When Milwaukee drafted Covey back in June, he told reporters that there was a “really good chance” he’d sign. The Brewers will get a pick in next year’s draft (likely 15th overall) for failing to sign their selection, assuming the sides don’t reach a last-minute deal.
Blum, Counsell Clear Waivers
Infielders Geoff Blum and Craig Counsell have cleared waivers, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). The Astros and Brewers can now trade their respective veterans to any team. The Braves and Cardinals both lost third basemen, so Blum and Counsell could draw interest. Blum ($1.5MM, mutual option for 2011) and Counsell ($2.1MM) both make modest salaries, play second third and short and can hit the open market after the season.
Here's MLBTR's complete list of players to clear waivers.
Brewers Release Jody Gerut
The Brewers released Jody Gerut, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). Lorenzo Cain's strong play (.933 OPS in ten games) meant the Brewers didn't need Gerut, even though he has recovered from the heel injury that sidelined him.
Gerut, 32, struggled through 74 plate appearances this year. He posted a .197/.230/.366 line with two homers, though he has not played since late May. Like former teammate Jim Edmonds, Gerut has a history of hitting right-handers well. This year, however, Gerut handled lefties well and struggled against righties (.444 OPS).
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Royals, Rays, Burrell
On this date 41 years ago, Major League owners unanimously elected Bowie Kuhn to a seven-year term as commissioner. It was under Kuhn that the reserve clause was eliminated, paving the way for free agency as we know it.
We've got a lot of links to get to, so let's dive right in…
- Joe Posnanski tries to determine who the worst everyday player in baseball is.
- Royals Review breaks down all the changes the Royals have gone through since the start of last season.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness congratulates Garret Anderson on the worst offensive season in Dodgers history.
- Bright House Sports Network looks at the Rays' history of waiver trades, plus some names they might target this month.
- The Process Report wonders if this season will be Dan Wheeler's last stand in Tampa.
- DRays Bay tries to figure out if Gabe Kapler should be designated for assignment.
- Disciples of Uecker thinks the Jim Edmonds–Chris Dickerson trade was the best for everyone.
- Around The Majors posted a two part series looking at the events that have brought Andres Torres' career back from the dead (parts one & two).
- Meanwhile, Joe Pawlikowski at FanGraphs examines Pat Burrell's resurgence since joining the Giants.
- The Nats Blog breaks down Stephen Strasburg's first bump in the road.
- Red Sox Beacon re-introduces us to Carlos Delgado.
- U.S.S. Mariner looks at the job security of Major League managers, or the lack thereof.
- Camden Crazies explains the Buck Showalter magic going on in Baltimore.
- Randall On Baseball revisits the trade that sent Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for Brandon League.
- Baseball 101 looks at a different way of valuing relievers based on the work of Bill James.
- Baseball Analysts analyzed the Rule 5 Draft.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
The Brewers’ 2011 Rotation
The Brewers made the 2008 playoffs thanks, in large part, to a rotation led by C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Yovani Gallardo has since established himself as a frontline starter, but the Brewers have struggled to surround him with equally capable arms. Barring injuries, the Cardinals and Reds will have strong rotations next year. Here’s how Milwaukee’s starting five will compare.
Gallardo leads all NL starters with 10.1 K/9 and his 2.86 ERA ranks eighth in the league. He’ll be the team’s opening day starter in 2011. Doug Melvin’s challenge: fill out the rotation with other capable arms.
Randy Wolf was supposed to be a solid complementary starter this year, but Melvin’s big offseason addition hasn’t worked out nearly as well as most Brewers fans hoped. Wolf has been durable enough to make his starts, but his walk, hit and homer rates are up and his strikeout rate is down. The Brewers will have to hope Wolf, now 33, bounces back in 2011.
Left-handers Manny Parra, Chris Capuano and Chris Narveson have all started games for the Brewers this year. Parra can strike major leaguers out and could win a rotation spot despite his high walk totals. Capuano has started just two games since returning from his second Tommy John surgery, but has pitched effectively. And Narveson (5.62 ERA and 131 hits in 115.1 innings) has been hittable. Like Parra and Capuano, Narveson strikes out twice as many batters as he walks, but the Brewers will presumably want alternatives to this trio of southpaws heading into the season.
Doug Davis ($6MM mutual option) and David Bush are both eligible for free agency after the season, but the Brewers can consider promoting a couple of prospects.
Amaury Rivas has a 3.21 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 21 AA starts this year. He was the Brewers’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2009 and impressed Baseball America with an efficient approach based on “three pitches, command, confidence and aggression.” It’s easy to imagine the 24-year-old starting for the Brewers at some point in 2011.
Former fifth-overall pick Mark Rogers has a 3.78 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 in the upper minors. He has a mid-90s fastball, but the 24-year-old needs a John Axford-esque improvement in command to succeed as a starter in the majors. Baseball America liked Rogers’ stuff enough to rank him 11th among Brewers prospects before the season, but they suggested he “fits best as a reliever” because of his command and health issues.
Rivas and Rogers are promising pitchers who could contribute in 2011, but they are not sure things. Neither are Narveson, Parra and Capuano, so Milwaukee will presumably be in the market for one or two starting pitchers this winter.
If the Brewers entertain offers for Prince Fielder, as expected, they’ll presumably ask for big league-ready starters in return. Even if they trade Prince, they could have interest in re-signing a pitcher like Bush (he has turned in a solid season). Milwaukee has many question marks behind Gallardo and Wolf, so it would be a surprise if starting pitching is not at or near the top of Melvin’s offseason wish list once again.
Reds Acquire Jim Edmonds
The Reds acquired Jim Edmonds from the Brewers for outfielder Chris Dickerson, according to the team. Reds GM Walt Jocketty continues to reacquire favorites from his time with the Cardinals. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets that the Reds won the claim on Edmonds despite another team making an attempt. That means the Phillies, Cardinals, and Giants passed. Jocketty and Brewers GM Doug Melvin matched up on a trade exactly one year ago, when the Brewers purchased David Weathers from the Reds.
Edmonds, 40, sat out 2009 and signed a minor league deal with the Brewers in January. He hasn't shown much rust, hitting .286/.350/.493 in 240 plate appearances. Edmonds has been shielded from lefties somewhat, but he'll make a nice complement to right-handed bats like Jonny Gomes and Drew Stubbs.
Dickerson is currently on a rehab assignment in Triple A after surgeries on his hand and wrist. The 28-year-old is a solid return for less than two months of Edmonds. He won't be arbitration-eligible until after the 2011 season, a big factor for the Brewers according to Melvin. Before the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Dickerson 12th among Reds prospects, praising his athleticism.
Brewers Owner Not Keen On Free Agent Pitchers
Brewers owner Mark Attanasio told Don Walker of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the club needs to improve its pitching. Based on recent history, Attanasio seems more inclined to improve the team's pitching through trades than free agency.
After signing Randy Wolf to a three-year, $29.75MM contract and Doug Davis to a one-year, $5.25MM pact (including the $1MM buyout), the Brewers went on to own the third-worst ERA in the National League. According to Walker, "that experience made Attanasio reconsider whether signing free agent pitchers works." Of course, the last time that Attanasio signed off on a trade for a star pitcher, the results were very different.
"When you look at all of the trades, CC [Sabathia] was a once-in-a-decade trade for any team," the owner said. "Very few of these deadline trades actually make a difference. You can look at the record on that and see what they do."
Attanasio also said that it is a "foregone conclusion" that the club will lose money this year after experiencing a 9.2% drop in attendance, the second biggest decline in the NL next to the Mets. It will be even more difficult for the club to reach agreement with Prince Fielder on a contract extension with such a hit to the bottom line.
Brewers Looking At Keepers, May Try To Trade Fielder
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt has some updates for Brewers fans as the organization looks to the future. It appears that Corey Hart's recent three-year extension may only be the beginning as the Brew Crew tries to set itself up for future success.
The Brewers will offer an extension to Rickie Weeks, who's enjoying a fine rebound season after an injury-shortened 2009. The former number-two overall pick is hitting .272/.368/.485 with 23 home runs and seven steals on the year. His speed numbers may be down, but Weeks still remains a power/speed combination and an offensive force at second base. Weeks will need to replace his agent, and once he accomplishes that, an extension will be offered.
One player who the Brewers likely won't be able to agree with is Prince Fielder. The Scott Boras client was offered an extension in the neighborhood of five years and $100MM, but the Brewers completely cut off talks when they learned he was seeking nearly double that amount — likely looking for a deal similar to Mark Teixeira's eight-year, $180MM contract. Haudricourt says that the Brewers won't advertise it for now, but they're likely to shop Fielder this offseason to bolster their rotation.
Losing Fielder leaves a hole in the offense, but it's possible the club is looking to replace him with Mat Gamel, or move Hart to first base and place Gamel in right field. As Haudricourt points out, Hart was drafted as a first baseman, and his 6'6" frame is conducive to the position.
It's possible that Lorenzo Cain dethrones Carlos Gomez as the club's everyday center fielder. The Brewers were clearly looking for more than Gomez's .286 OBP when they traded J.J. Hardy to Minnesota for him this past offseason.
If Milwaukee does indeed try to make Fielder available, there will be no shortage of suitors. While the free agent market does feature Adam Dunn, the majority of others consist of injury risks, fading stars, players coming off career years, or some combination of the three.