Blum, Counsell Clear Waivers
Infielders Geoff Blum and Craig Counsell have cleared waivers, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). The Astros and Brewers can now trade their respective veterans to any team. The Braves and Cardinals both lost third basemen, so Blum and Counsell could draw interest. Blum ($1.5MM, mutual option for 2011) and Counsell ($2.1MM) both make modest salaries, play second third and short and can hit the open market after the season.
Here's MLBTR's complete list of players to clear waivers.
Brewers Release Jody Gerut
The Brewers released Jody Gerut, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). Lorenzo Cain's strong play (.933 OPS in ten games) meant the Brewers didn't need Gerut, even though he has recovered from the heel injury that sidelined him.
Gerut, 32, struggled through 74 plate appearances this year. He posted a .197/.230/.366 line with two homers, though he has not played since late May. Like former teammate Jim Edmonds, Gerut has a history of hitting right-handers well. This year, however, Gerut handled lefties well and struggled against righties (.444 OPS).
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Royals, Rays, Burrell
On this date 41 years ago, Major League owners unanimously elected Bowie Kuhn to a seven-year term as commissioner. It was under Kuhn that the reserve clause was eliminated, paving the way for free agency as we know it.
We've got a lot of links to get to, so let's dive right in…
- Joe Posnanski tries to determine who the worst everyday player in baseball is.
- Royals Review breaks down all the changes the Royals have gone through since the start of last season.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness congratulates Garret Anderson on the worst offensive season in Dodgers history.
- Bright House Sports Network looks at the Rays' history of waiver trades, plus some names they might target this month.
- The Process Report wonders if this season will be Dan Wheeler's last stand in Tampa.
- DRays Bay tries to figure out if Gabe Kapler should be designated for assignment.
- Disciples of Uecker thinks the Jim Edmonds–Chris Dickerson trade was the best for everyone.
- Around The Majors posted a two part series looking at the events that have brought Andres Torres' career back from the dead (parts one & two).
- Meanwhile, Joe Pawlikowski at FanGraphs examines Pat Burrell's resurgence since joining the Giants.
- The Nats Blog breaks down Stephen Strasburg's first bump in the road.
- Red Sox Beacon re-introduces us to Carlos Delgado.
- U.S.S. Mariner looks at the job security of Major League managers, or the lack thereof.
- Camden Crazies explains the Buck Showalter magic going on in Baltimore.
- Randall On Baseball revisits the trade that sent Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for Brandon League.
- Baseball 101 looks at a different way of valuing relievers based on the work of Bill James.
- Baseball Analysts analyzed the Rule 5 Draft.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
The Brewers’ 2011 Rotation
The Brewers made the 2008 playoffs thanks, in large part, to a rotation led by C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Yovani Gallardo has since established himself as a frontline starter, but the Brewers have struggled to surround him with equally capable arms. Barring injuries, the Cardinals and Reds will have strong rotations next year. Here’s how Milwaukee’s starting five will compare.
Gallardo leads all NL starters with 10.1 K/9 and his 2.86 ERA ranks eighth in the league. He’ll be the team’s opening day starter in 2011. Doug Melvin’s challenge: fill out the rotation with other capable arms.
Randy Wolf was supposed to be a solid complementary starter this year, but Melvin’s big offseason addition hasn’t worked out nearly as well as most Brewers fans hoped. Wolf has been durable enough to make his starts, but his walk, hit and homer rates are up and his strikeout rate is down. The Brewers will have to hope Wolf, now 33, bounces back in 2011.
Left-handers Manny Parra, Chris Capuano and Chris Narveson have all started games for the Brewers this year. Parra can strike major leaguers out and could win a rotation spot despite his high walk totals. Capuano has started just two games since returning from his second Tommy John surgery, but has pitched effectively. And Narveson (5.62 ERA and 131 hits in 115.1 innings) has been hittable. Like Parra and Capuano, Narveson strikes out twice as many batters as he walks, but the Brewers will presumably want alternatives to this trio of southpaws heading into the season.
Doug Davis ($6MM mutual option) and David Bush are both eligible for free agency after the season, but the Brewers can consider promoting a couple of prospects.
Amaury Rivas has a 3.21 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 21 AA starts this year. He was the Brewers’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2009 and impressed Baseball America with an efficient approach based on “three pitches, command, confidence and aggression.” It’s easy to imagine the 24-year-old starting for the Brewers at some point in 2011.
Former fifth-overall pick Mark Rogers has a 3.78 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 in the upper minors. He has a mid-90s fastball, but the 24-year-old needs a John Axford-esque improvement in command to succeed as a starter in the majors. Baseball America liked Rogers’ stuff enough to rank him 11th among Brewers prospects before the season, but they suggested he “fits best as a reliever” because of his command and health issues.
Rivas and Rogers are promising pitchers who could contribute in 2011, but they are not sure things. Neither are Narveson, Parra and Capuano, so Milwaukee will presumably be in the market for one or two starting pitchers this winter.
If the Brewers entertain offers for Prince Fielder, as expected, they’ll presumably ask for big league-ready starters in return. Even if they trade Prince, they could have interest in re-signing a pitcher like Bush (he has turned in a solid season). Milwaukee has many question marks behind Gallardo and Wolf, so it would be a surprise if starting pitching is not at or near the top of Melvin’s offseason wish list once again.
Reds Acquire Jim Edmonds
The Reds acquired Jim Edmonds from the Brewers for outfielder Chris Dickerson, according to the team. Reds GM Walt Jocketty continues to reacquire favorites from his time with the Cardinals. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets that the Reds won the claim on Edmonds despite another team making an attempt. That means the Phillies, Cardinals, and Giants passed. Jocketty and Brewers GM Doug Melvin matched up on a trade exactly one year ago, when the Brewers purchased David Weathers from the Reds.
Edmonds, 40, sat out 2009 and signed a minor league deal with the Brewers in January. He hasn't shown much rust, hitting .286/.350/.493 in 240 plate appearances. Edmonds has been shielded from lefties somewhat, but he'll make a nice complement to right-handed bats like Jonny Gomes and Drew Stubbs.
Dickerson is currently on a rehab assignment in Triple A after surgeries on his hand and wrist. The 28-year-old is a solid return for less than two months of Edmonds. He won't be arbitration-eligible until after the 2011 season, a big factor for the Brewers according to Melvin. Before the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Dickerson 12th among Reds prospects, praising his athleticism.
Brewers Owner Not Keen On Free Agent Pitchers
Brewers owner Mark Attanasio told Don Walker of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the club needs to improve its pitching. Based on recent history, Attanasio seems more inclined to improve the team's pitching through trades than free agency.
After signing Randy Wolf to a three-year, $29.75MM contract and Doug Davis to a one-year, $5.25MM pact (including the $1MM buyout), the Brewers went on to own the third-worst ERA in the National League. According to Walker, "that experience made Attanasio reconsider whether signing free agent pitchers works." Of course, the last time that Attanasio signed off on a trade for a star pitcher, the results were very different.
"When you look at all of the trades, CC [Sabathia] was a once-in-a-decade trade for any team," the owner said. "Very few of these deadline trades actually make a difference. You can look at the record on that and see what they do."
Attanasio also said that it is a "foregone conclusion" that the club will lose money this year after experiencing a 9.2% drop in attendance, the second biggest decline in the NL next to the Mets. It will be even more difficult for the club to reach agreement with Prince Fielder on a contract extension with such a hit to the bottom line.
Brewers Looking At Keepers, May Try To Trade Fielder
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt has some updates for Brewers fans as the organization looks to the future. It appears that Corey Hart's recent three-year extension may only be the beginning as the Brew Crew tries to set itself up for future success.
The Brewers will offer an extension to Rickie Weeks, who's enjoying a fine rebound season after an injury-shortened 2009. The former number-two overall pick is hitting .272/.368/.485 with 23 home runs and seven steals on the year. His speed numbers may be down, but Weeks still remains a power/speed combination and an offensive force at second base. Weeks will need to replace his agent, and once he accomplishes that, an extension will be offered.
One player who the Brewers likely won't be able to agree with is Prince Fielder. The Scott Boras client was offered an extension in the neighborhood of five years and $100MM, but the Brewers completely cut off talks when they learned he was seeking nearly double that amount — likely looking for a deal similar to Mark Teixeira's eight-year, $180MM contract. Haudricourt says that the Brewers won't advertise it for now, but they're likely to shop Fielder this offseason to bolster their rotation.
Losing Fielder leaves a hole in the offense, but it's possible the club is looking to replace him with Mat Gamel, or move Hart to first base and place Gamel in right field. As Haudricourt points out, Hart was drafted as a first baseman, and his 6'6" frame is conducive to the position.
It's possible that Lorenzo Cain dethrones Carlos Gomez as the club's everyday center fielder. The Brewers were clearly looking for more than Gomez's .286 OBP when they traded J.J. Hardy to Minnesota for him this past offseason.
If Milwaukee does indeed try to make Fielder available, there will be no shortage of suitors. While the free agent market does feature Adam Dunn, the majority of others consist of injury risks, fading stars, players coming off career years, or some combination of the three.
Odds & Ends: Lee, Brewers, Repko, Delgado
Saturday night linkage..
- Rangers hurler Cliff Lee says that he isn't thinking about his impending free agency, writes Jeff Wilson for The Dallas Morning News.
- Darrell Covey, the father of Brewers first-round pick Dylan Covey, says that he expects an over-slot bonus offer, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. As the 14th overall pick, Covey is slotted to receive a bonus of $1.7MM. The Coveys have told the Brewers that they expect $2MM.
- Twins manager Ron Gardenhire says that he now understands why the organization thought so highly of Jason Repko, writes John Barone of MLB.com. The Twins picked up Repko in April after he was released by the Dodgers.
- Paul Konerko and manager Ozzie Guillen are fine with the White Sox standing pat in August, writes Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- Reds twelfth-round pick Kyle Waldrop has signed on for a $500K bonus, tweets Jim Callis of Baseball America. This is the highest bonus given to a player outside of the first ten rounds so far.
- MLB.com's Mark Sheldon writes that speculation was rampant that today would mark Aroldis Chapman's big league debut. Instead of Chapman, the Reds tabbed reliever Carlos Fisher to fill in for Russ Springer, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
- Mike Lowell didn't have much of a reaction to Boston's signing of Carlos Delgado, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
Melvin: Axford A Pleasant Surprise
John Axford had faced 34 major league hitters going into the 2010 season, so you would have surprised even the most dedicated Brewers fans if you’d told them he was going to be the team’s closer this year. But Axford, who struck out Derrek Lee to preserve a one-run ninth inning lead last night, is most definitely Milwaukee's stopper.
Yes, Axford, a complete unknown just months ago, is closing games for a team that has all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman in its bullpen. And no, when Brewers GM Doug Melvin signed Axford two and a half years ago, he was not under the impression that he'd found his next go-to reliever.
“You always have visions of this happening,” Melvin told MLBTR. “But I don’t think we thought that this would happen, that he’d be our closer, especially closing in front of a Hall of Famer. I don’t think anybody had the vision that this would happen.”
Before Axford and his mustache won over Brewers fans, area scout Jay Lapp saw him pitch for the Brantford Red Sox of the Intercounty Baseball League. Back then, the right-hander was a bartender, but not a complete unknown in baseball circles. Axford generated buzz as a 2004 draft prospect, but underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2003. After the operation, the Reds selected him in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft and Axford pitched in the Yankees system in 2007. But in 2008, the Brewers signed him for his promise, not his polish.
“We knew we were getting a guy that had a good live arm, but there were a lot of mechanical issues with him,” Melvin said. “There were some up and down moments and some times when we weren’t sure he was going to throw enough strikes.”
Indeed, Axford had massive problems finding the strike zone in the Yankees system. He pitched at four levels in 2007 and posted an overall walk rate of 6.4 BB/9. Only two major league pitchers have higher walk rates this season: Dontrelle Willis and Oliver Perez have both posted 7.7 BB/9 (min. 40 IP). Those two left-handers have had trouble finding regular playing time this year, but Axford’s walk rates didn’t scare the Brewers away.
“If [pitchers] have good live arms and their walk rates are high, I think you’ve got to be patient,” Melvin said. “One of the toughest things in the game is to be patient.”
Axford has always had a mid-90s fastball and a pair of good breaking pitches. When the Brewers tinkered with his delivery, his walk rate dropped. He walked fewer batters than ever before getting called up to the majors this year and his current MLB walk rate is a career-best 3.1 BB/9.
“Guys with good arms, I say the same thing,” Melvin said. “Their walks can be reduced once they feel comfortable with their deliveries.”
That comfort zone can be evasive, so few relievers have lasting success like Hoffman.
“They can lose it if they don’t stay on top of things, they can lose the delivery, but I think that’s why some pitchers can be good one year and not the next year,” Melvin said.
This season, Axford has a 2.83 ERA with a 50% ground ball rate, 10.8 K/9 and a team-leading 16 saves. Those stats impress the Brewers, but Melvin also enjoys the Hoffman-like demeanor the 27-year-old showed on the mound last night.
“He kept his poise and struck out Derrek Lee and sometimes a young guy like that can really panic, but his composure and poise is very good,” Melvin said.
Waiver Trade Candidates: NL Central
The NL Central picture: the Reds and Cardinals are in the race, and the Brewers, Astros, Cubs, and Pirates are out. Waiver trade candidates:
Reds closer Francisco Cordero will probably clear waivers, though he's unlikely to change teams. I view Bronson Arroyo as a similar case. The Reds could use the depth Aaron Harang will provide when he returns from the disabled list from back spasms, though the chance to shed the remainder of his contract would be appealing.
Newly acquired Cardinal Jake Westbrook might clear waivers, not that he'll be dealt again. Kyle Lohse should make it through, if he returns from forearm surgery this month. Skip Schumaker, signed at $2.7MM for next year, could clear waivers as well.
The Brewers should expect Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, David Riske, and LaTroy Hawkins to clear waivers. Perhaps GM Doug Melvin will try to place the a few of the relievers with contenders. Dave Bush and Jim Edmonds are two who might be claimed.
The Astros can count on Carlos Lee, Pedro Feliz, and Brandon Lyon clearing waivers. Most likely Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak, and Geoff Blum will clear as well. Perhaps one of the cheaper veterans will be dealt.
A host of Cubs figure to clear waivers: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Derrek Lee. Of that group I'd say Fukudome has the best chance of going. Aramis Ramirez may get through. He was starting to heat up but recently aggravated a thumb injury. There's a good chance Xavier Nady clears waivers and is traded.
The Pirates don't have many moderate-sized contracts; newly-acquired Chris Snyder could get through waivers. Ryan Doumit should also clear once he returns from the DL, and he does appear to be a trade candidate.
For our primer on the waiver trade process, click here.