Turkey Day Tidbits
Happy Thanksgiving from MLB Trade Rumors!
Grab your shopping list — Bucco Blog has posted the Pirates top 10 prospect list.
I initially thought one of the collateral consequences of the increased market value of players this year would be that arbitration values would go up over the next few years, but Jim Callis at Baseball America said he doesn’t think that will happen since arbitration contracts are compared to people with similar service time. Interesting.
Did anyone else see ProTrade’s reaction to the 2006 MVP awards? Talk about blowing out the industry – whew!
USA Today has a couple of nice articles — on the Royals rebuilding plans and the other on the Brewers potential to return to respectability.
Will Steinbrenner’s potential desire to name son-in-law Steve Swindal as the next CEO be sidetracked with Swindal becoming the next operator of the New York’s three major thoroughbred racetracks — Aqueduct, Belmont Park and Saratoga?
By Jake
Kevin Mench for Rodrigo Lopez?
Rodrigo Lopez has been on the trading block for what seems like years. And anyone who has taken the time to count the Brewers outfielders know that some of them–including Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins–will be on the block this offseason. So, it’s only logical that the Brewers and Orioles have chatted about Lopez for Mench.
I wrote about Lopez in a post on my blog when it was first reported that the Brewers had inquired after him–he had a disastrous year last year, posting a 5.90 ERA, but he’s not too old, he’s been a reliable innings eater, and he has had a couple of decent years pitching in the brutal AL East. A switch to the NL Central, with a steady diet of the Pirates and Astros, could do wonders for his fantasy value.
Contract-wise, the deal makes sense: both are entering their final year of arbitration, and both are coming off of years that could make a case for non-tenders. Rosenthal points out in the article that having Lopez would free up the Brewers to trade Doug Davis, another innings eater coming off a so-so year. Their contract situations are the same, but Davis probably has more trade value than Lopez (if only because Davis’s ERA wasn’t near 6 last year).
Posted by Jeff Sackmann
2007 Milwaukee Brewers
Let’s give the Brew Crew some attention in our next 2007 Team Outlook. I have to give a nod to Brew Crew Ball, the best blog for this club. I definitely read up there before working on this post.
Doug Melvin’s contract obligations:
C – Damian Miller – $2.75MM
C – Mike Rivera – $0.38MM
1B – Prince Fielder – $0.38MM
2B – Rickie Weeks – $2MM
SS – J.J. Hardy – $3.5MM
3B – Corey Koskie – $2MM
IF –
LF – Bill Hall – $0.42MM
CF – Tony Gwynn Jr. – $0.38MM/Gabe Gross – $0.38MM
RF – Corey Hart – $0.38MM/Geoff Jenkins – $7MM
OF – Kevin Mench – $2.8MM
OF – Brady Clark – $3.8MM
SP – Ben Sheets – $10MM
SP – Chris Capuano – $0.45MM
SP – Dave Bush – $0.38MM
SP – Doug Davis – $2.7MM
SP – Carlos Villanueva – $0.38MM
SP – Dana Eveland – $0.38MM
SP – Yovani Gallardo – $0.38MM
RP – Francisco Cordero – $5.4MM
RP – Jose Capellan – $0.38MM
RP – Derrick Turnbow – $2.3MM
RP – Brian Shouse – $0.775MM
RP – Matt Wise – $1MM
RP – Chris Spurling – $0.38MM
RP – Grant Balfour – $0.38MM
The Brewers have roughly $54MM committed before arbitration raises go to Mench, Davis, Capuano, Hall, and Shouse. Word is that the team will push payroll past the $60MM mark. Hopefully that means $70MM, because they could reach $60 mil with the raises. Of course, guys like Mench, Davis, and Jenkins could be traded this winter to free up money. Team owner Mark Attanasio is looking for a "$10 million puzzle piece."
The catching situation looks set. Yes, Miller slipped drastically in the second half, but Rivera was a capable backup in ’06.
Don’t forget that Fielder will be just 23 next year. There’s a good chance he will improve on his solid rookie showing of .271/.347/.483. Similarly, Weeks will be 24 and more power should develop.
One key to success will be healthy years from Weeks, Koskie, and Hardy. When one is hurt, Hall must move back to the infield and a lesser player will occupy a corner. Hardy is still young and his ankle should be fine for spring. Koskie hit pretty well before his concussion in July.
Another fun situation is that Milwaukee has seven outfielders. Seriously. Seven. However, three of those guys are overpaid and/or undesirable: Jenkins, Mench, and Clark. Clark should stay on as a fourth outfielder. Melvin will do everything he can to trade Jenkins this winter. Just eat half his salary and get him out of there.
Do you even offer Mench arbitration? A major piece of the Carlos Lee trade, Mench was terrible after joining the Brewers. He still stands to make $3MM or more next year. Tough call here. If Hart and Hall are to occupy the corners, there’s no room for Mench.
Gross, Gwynn Jr., Hall, Hart, and Laynce Nix all saw time in CF in 2006. It appears that Gwynn is the favorite after hitting .300/.360/.396 in 112 Triple A games. I’d prefer Gross, personally, if his defense would hold up.
The pitching rotation is deep, though if I had to guess that’s where this "$10 million puzzle piece" would come into play. Davis is after a three-year deal to compensate for his better years, which are behind him.
If Davis stays and Sheets remains healthy, only one spot is available. That will initially go to a fifth-starterish guy like Villanueva. Maybe Eveland joins the ‘pen in that case.
The fifth starter would just be a placeholder for Gallardo, who took a huge leap to eat Double A for breakfast. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein named Gallardo the sixth-best right-handed starting pitching prospect in the game, citing three plus pitches. Will Inman is also very promising.
The back end of the bullpen will again be assembled from minor league free agents and whatever spare parts Melvin can dig up. He’s adept at this, so it should be a solid group.
Brew Crew Ball names some minor league free agents that Melvin could pursue for the bullpen or perhaps a bench spot.
It’s going to be a fun offseason of trading in Milwaukee. This is a team with a lot of promise that could easily take the Central Division if they can keep guys healthy and expel some veterans. Despite the promise of more spending, I don’t really see a glaring need with this club.
ESPN: Carlos Lee To Rangers
Breaking news from ESPN’s Keith Law:
"The Milwaukee Brewers are trading slugger Carlos Lee to the Texas Rangers as part of a multi-player deal, ESPN.com learned Friday.
The Brewers are sending Lee, minor-league outfield prospect Nelson Cruz and a player to be named later to the Rangers for relief pitcher Francisco Cordero and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix."
Initial opinion: Jon Daniels got the best of Doug Melvin here. Daniels gets a player comparable to Mench in Cruz, only cheaper. He adds a huge addition to the middle of the lineup for the stretch run in Lee. Mench is at a crossroads, Cordero is really just an OK 31 year-old reliever with saves under his belt, and Nix has been long on promise but short on results. It seems that Melvin is trying to stay competitive and get some players for the future for Lee at the same time, so Brewers fans have to respect that.
Interesting side note: according to Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Mench‘s most comparable player is Carlos Lee. I wonder how often a player has been traded for the player most similar to him?
I’ll have fantasy analysis of the trade on RotoAuthority sometime this afternoon.
Latest Carlos Lee Trade Rumors
Doug Melvin, who I think is one of the game’s better GMs, is currently fielding offers for Carlos Lee. According to Ken Rosenthal, Melvin recently offered a four-year, $48MM contract to the slugger, which was immediately rejected.
A source close to Lee tells me that he had planned to come to Chicago on yesterday’s off-day (he owns a house there), but was instructed by his agent and Milwaukee management to sit tight in because he’s close to being traded. Lee mentioned that the Cubs are his number one choice in the offseason.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark indicated that the Twins are definitely an interested party. The Twins have plenty of young pitching depth, so the teams could definitely match up if Terry Ryan is willing. The Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners could also come into play.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 4 Days Left
What’s cooking this morning in the world of MLB trade rumors?
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey spoke to all sorts of baseball sources; here’s his latest Rumor Mill. New developments: the Mets could pursue various Rockie pitchers, and the Yanks crave John Smoltz.
My Mets guy indicates that the Wilson Betemit for Scott Linebrink deal that’s been bandied about could go down at the last minute. What? He hears things outside of the Mets.
SportsBlah sorts through the Alfonso Soriano rumors.
Jimmy Gobble was scratched from his start last night. Let the rampant rumormongering begin. Actually, KC just switched him with Runelvys Hernandez to break up the southpaws in the rotation.
As the days go by, Doug Melvin sounds more and more like he’ll trade Carlos Lee.
RotoAuthority gives the fantasy take on Shin-Soo Choo, Ben Broussard, Scott Kazmir, and many more recent developments.
All the newspapers are reporting that the Yankees have deemed Scott Proctor "untouchable." I know good relief help is hard to find, but should a 29 year-old middling reliever at the peak of his value really be deemed untouchable? Especially the way Joe Torre is abusing him.
Hadn’t heard of the Mets’ interest in Juan Cruz and Jose Valverde until Dan Graziano mentioned it this morning. Could be a great buy low situation for a real live arm in Valverde. Cruz I think could be tough to pry away.
There was just no reason to try to start Roger Clemens trade speculation. The Astros, five games back in the wildcard, have invested way too much to suddenly wave the white flag.
Bidding war for…Cory Lidle? Looks like Toronto has the lead so far; Lidle starts tonight.
Buster Olney mentioned today in his blog that the White Sox are willing to discuss trades for Freddy Garcia. He also indicates that the Red Sox are working on a large, creative deal with more than two teams.
Add the Mariners and Cardinals to the Yankees for Shawn Green’s interested parties. He can veto a deal to any of these three teams and is happy in Arizona.
Royals Trade Dessens, Graffanino
Busy day for Dayton Moore, as he acquired all sorts of pitchers for his veterans.
Let’s start with his first trade: Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers for Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel, Odalis Perez, and cash. If you’re like me, you’ve never heard of Johnson or Pimentel, so let’s start there.
Pimentel and Johnson were ranked 16th and 17th among Dodgers prospects entering the 2006 season by Baseball America. Pimentel is a 20 year-old converted outfielder currently struggling in High Class A. Pimentel’s teammate Blake Johnson is a 21 year-old righty who was drafted in the second round in ’04. Just a couple of live arms to help the Royals’ system; collect enough and someone’s bound to pan out.
Odalis Perez is an intriguing pickup for a team like the Royals. He immediately becomes their most talented pitcher despite his awful 2006. Looking at his peripherals, his strikeout rate dropped this season and his hits allowed skyrocketed. Perez’s control remains excellent. The southpaw had mixed results in the World Baseball Classic this March. He claimed to be in the best shape of his life in February following an ’05 season marred by an oblique strain, shoulder inflammation, and biceps tendinitis.
Financials: Perez is due around $2.75MM for the rest of this season, $7.75MM next season, and a $1.5MM buyout for ’08 if the Royals don’t want him for $9MM. Of that $12MM, the Dodgers are paying $8MM. That leaves KC with just a $4MM obligation to Perez for the rest of this year and his age 29 season. He’s projected to be worth that much in ’07 alone, and the Royals don’t have much to lose.
As for Dessens, he’s your run-of-the-mill 34 year-old reliever. He’ll earn roughly $640,000 for the rest of ’06 and $1.7MM next year.
The Royals also shipped Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa, a 25 year-old southpaw, has fared poorly in the Majors with a 5.12 ERA in 65 innings. He was traded to the Diamondbacks in the Curt Schilling deal in ’03 and then bounced to the Brewers in the Richie Sexson trade a few days later. De La Rosa has dealt with elbow and control issues (they go hand in hand), but he’s still got a bit of promise.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left
To begin with, this just isn’t true. With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud. That honor belongs to 2005 for sure. The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.
Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest. The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers. In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb. Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.
Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base. Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.
Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more.
Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens. The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.
Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez? Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto? How about the Rockies?
Rumor Roundup
Here are some trade rumors from the last day or so that we haven’t covered. All come from various newspapers or other published reports.
Yesterday ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported some Bobby Abreu interest coming from the Brewers. It was a longshot from the start given Abreu’s contract. Today it’s been revealed that Doug Melvin hasn’t even spoken to Pat Gillick on the topic, and the rumor was placed by a rival GM. Any guesses who?
Something seems to be brewing between the Yankees and Royals, and Reggie Sanders is the name that makes sense. The Royals would do well to unload the 38 year-old right fielder’s $5MM commitment for ’07. A deal could also include reliever Elmer Dessens, who’s signed through next season. For the second trading deadline in a row, Brian Cashman seems to be taking a more level-headed approach.
Another option for the Yanks is Kevin Mench of the Rangers. Mench has been jerked around a bit this year by Buck Showalter and could come at a reduced price. I recently outlined a couple of possible career paths for Mench over at RotoAuthority. His career may be at a fork in the road; he should take it.
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners have become a major player for Alfonso Soriano. Bill Bavasi has stumbled with some questionable signings, but Seattle remains just four games out in a weak division. Don’t forget that Bavasi loves to deal with Kevin Towers more than any GM, so he may try to match up with the Padres somehow.
What Could Greg Maddux Bring?
Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux. The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation. Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching.
Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year. His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple. The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003. The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine. I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball. At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance. Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.
Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver. He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth. He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.
If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job. For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart. He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future. The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres. Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.
Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season. It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.