Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
Twins Make Weak Offer To Santana
According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Twins recently offered Johan Santana a two-year extension for $36MM plus a club option for 2011. I know you have to start somewhere with negotiations, but the Twins could essentially double their offer and it would still be well below market value.
Heyman mentions that Santana has informed the Twins that he won’t negotiate again until he hits the open market after the 2008 season. Maybe Santana made that assertion because he felt insulted by the team’s lowball offer.
If the Twins are that far apart from an extension with Santana, they might want to consider trading him sometime between now and July 31st, 2008. Don’t forget, however, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year and a good shot at one for ’08.
Some have suggested that Santana will become baseball’s first $200MM pitcher; clearly a deal won’t get done with less than $100MM being committed. People keep reporting that Santana will become a free agent at age 29, which is technically true, but he will be 30 on Opening Day 2009.
UPDATE: Not so fast, said Santana today. He says he hasn’t received an offer from the Twins, but the sooner the better if the Twins want to break their "no negotiations in-season policy." A report four days ago indicated the Twins will ignore that policy for Santana.
Twins Will Negotiate In-Season
La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune quotes a high-ranking Twins official in saying that the club will ignore their own policy and negotiate contracts during the season. In particular, they’ll continue to try to extend Joe Nathan and Johan Santana. Neal also cites precedents where the Twins bent policies, whether regarding contracts or beards.
We last heard about Nathan a few days ago, when Charley Walters reported "positive discussions" on a deal that could run through 2011. A week prior to that Nathan said he didn’t think a deal would get done this year.
Santana wants to stay, and was quoted saying "the sooner the better." It’s just a matter of how much of a discount he’ll concede to the Twins.
Let’s Make A Deal: Reed Johnson
Reed Johnson. He’s a 30 year-old outfielder who can play all three positions. He posted a .391 OBP as the Jays’ leadoff hitter last year. He doesn’t need to be platooned. He makes $3.075MM this year and has two years of service time left before free agency.
If there’s one team that can afford to compromise a little outfield defense, it’s the Jays. They’ve got two excellent athletes in Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. The DH spot is blocked with Frank Thomas, leaving no spot for young Adam Lind. Lind appears Major League ready – his PECOTA is .289/.349/.493 and he projects to be more valuable than Johnson in 2007. Lind’s defense is lacking, but the Jays can stomach that.
So which teams could use Reed Johnson? The Twins, Braves, Cardinals, and Marlins are possibilities. I think he could be a decent center fielder for the Fish, but they’d hesitate to take on his salary. The Braves seem content with their left field platoon, though I think Johnson would fit. The Cards also have some outfield questions, though Ricciardi hasn’t traded with John Schuerholz or Walt Jocketty before. The Dodgers had interest in Johnson in the past but the Brady Clark acquisition removes their need.
That leaves the Twins as my choice. They’re relying on the health of Rondell White and/or Jason Kubel in left, and they may want to trade Torii Hunter midseason. Alexi Casilla is ready to replace Luis Castillo as well, and Johnson could be used at leadoff while Casilla gets acclimated.
In return, the Twins could send one of their young starters to the Jays. Asking for Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey seems like too much, but Scott Baker is buried on their starting pitching depth chart. He seems to have fallen out of favor after a half-season of 6.37 ball last year. While his home run tendencies are a poor fit for Rogers Centre, Baker did have a promising 3.9 K/BB last year. He’s 25 years old and seems like an appropriate bounty for Johnson. Thoughts?
Twins, Nathan Talking Extension
According to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Joe Nathan and the Twins have had "positive discussions about a contract extension."
The deal could run through 2011, enabling Nathan to spend at least a couple of seasons at the new ballpark. It sounds like Nathan won’t let talks run into Spring Training 2008, which will precede his walk year.
By 2009, the Twins probably will have already gotten the best of Nathan’s career. But as long as he stays healthy he should be closing when he’s 40. His skills could deteriorate and he’d still be a top five closer. If PECOTA were to sign him for 2009-11, it’d offer about $34MM. Since he likes Minnesota and wants to stay, the Twins might be able to complete a deal in that range.
Luis Castillo A Met In ’08?
The Mets and second baseman Luis Castillo have seemed like a good match for a while now. The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported today that Castillo nearly signed with the Mets three years ago before the Marlins improved their offer. Additionally, the Mets almost traded for him in November of ’05.
Today I added Castillo to my list of 2008 Free Agents; he ranked 29th. Should Jeff Kent retire, Castillo will compete with Marcus Giles as the best available 2B after this season. Castillo won’t return to the Twins; they have a younger version of him in Alexi Casilla. Actually, Casilla should probably be used at shortstop, but I doubt Castillo returns. I should add that Casilla is going to make a phenomenal fantasy sleeper once he starts – .300+ average, 40+ steals. Just like the Luis Castillo of the late 90s. Put him on reserve in AL-only this year.
Since Jose Valentin‘s 2006 season looks just a tad out of line with his recent performances, the Mets may be compelled to trade for Castillo this summer instead of waiting for him to hit the open market.
Twins Notes: Morneau, Ponson
Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has a few Twins tidbits for us this morning:
- He says the Twins want a fifth option year on Justin Morneau‘s multiyear pact in the range of $14MM. Three days ago, Morneau said the two sides were "pretty close." At that time, Morneau confirmed that he was never offered the 4/33 deal that Joe Mauer received.
- Walters also writes: "It will be a shock if pitcher Sidney Ponson isn’t released by the Twins." Back in late February, Ron Gardenhire said he viewed Ponson as being one of the team’s starters. If his neck is OK, it would be nice to see Matt Garza win the job instead.
2007 Minnesota Twins
Next up we have the Twins, who have an uphill battle in a tough division.
Terry Ryan’s contract obligations:
C – Joe Mauer – $3.75MM
C – Mike Redmond – $0.95MM
1B – Justin Morneau – $4.5MM
2B – Luis Castillo – $5.75MM
SS – Jason Bartlett – $0.38MM
3B – Nick Punto – $1.8MM
IF – Jeff Cirillo – $1.5MM + incentives
IF – Luis Rodriguez – $0.38MM
LF – Rondell White – $2.5MM
CF – Torii Hunter – $12MM
RF – Michael Cuddyer – $3.575MM
OF – Lew Ford – $0.985MM
DH – Jason Kubel – $0.38MM
SP – Johan Santana – $12MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $4MM
SP – Ramon Ortiz – $3.1MM
SP – Sidney Ponson – $1MM + incentives
SP – Boof Bonser – $0.38MM
RP – Joe Nathan – $5.25MM
RP – Juan Rincon – $2MM
RP – Dennys Reyes – $1MM
RP – Jesse Crain – $0.5MM
RP – Pat Neshek – $0.38MM
RP – Matt Guerrier – $0.38MM
RP – J.D. Durbin – $0.38MM
They have about $69MM worth of players on this projected 25-man roster, up about $5MM from last year’s Opening Day payroll.
I think the offense will probably be about average, with a chance to be a touch better if Kubel comes through. I don’t have big concerns about Mauer and Morneau dropping off. They’re not getting adequate production at power positions like 3B, LF, or DH though.
If you’re going to beat the Tigers, Indians, and White Sox with an average offense, you’ll need above average starting pitching and defense. As presently constructed, the Twins don’t have this. Teams like the Indians and White Sox will knock the non-Santana starters around. My off-the-cuff review says the defense is decent but not spectacular.
The ridiculous part is that the Twins are again going with veteran crap instead of their kids, and it will cost them wins again. Said Aaron Gleeman:
"It’s possible that the rotation at Triple-A Rochester will include Garza, Baker, Perkins, and Slowey, which has a good chance of being a better foursome that the non-Santana starters the Twins leave spring training with."
I don’t get this. The games in April and May count, right?
The bullpen can at least make up for the rotation’s misgivings. It looks to be quite strong again. I went with Guerrier and Durbin for the last two spots at the advice of Seth Stohs. Seth mentions that Durbin is out of options, increasing the chances the Twins carry him. He also notes that the team could go with 11 pitchers.
If Kubel breaks out, the rotation turns over quickly, and the Twins trade for Adam Dunn at the deadline, the could win the division. More likely to me is that they’re out of struggling to stay in contention in July and are faced with trading Torii Hunter.
Hunter Expects To Leave Twins
If I were a betting man, I’d bet that Torii Hunter will not be a Twin in 2008. Hunter agrees, though it doesn’t seem like he’ll let it become a distraction.
Say he hits free agency and asks for a four-year deal to cover his age 32-35 seasons. PECOTA would offer him a $34MM deal. PECOTA would then be turned down and counteroffered 4/52 or so from Hunter’s agent.
The 2007-08 offseason is notable for its selection of center fielders. Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson, and Aaron Rowand are all set to hit the market. Teams with openings could include the Orioles, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Astros, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, and Padres.
Twins Sign Mauer To Extension
As you’ve likely heard by now, the Twins signed superstar catcher Joe Mauer to a four-year, $33MM deal today. With the contract, the Twins bought out what would’ve been Mauer’s first year of free agency, 2010. These types of deals are becoming all the rage these days. The supply of star players making it to free agency after six seasons is definitely on the decline.
Mauer will earn $3.75MM in ’07, $6.25MM in ’08, $10.5MM in ’09, and $12.5MM in ’10. In case you were wondering, PECOTA absolutely adores Mauer and his future. Guess how much PECOTA thinks Mauer is worth over the life of his new contract? Just over $140 million for the four seasons. The projection system values him at almost $37MM in 2010 alone. I guess that’s because not too many catchers are projected to hit .326/.406/.497 that year. I should add that his peak projected value is 2009, when he could be worth almost $40 million.
Miguel Cabrera will be eligible for free agency after the 2009 season. PECOTA thinks he’ll be worth $29.275MM in 2010 and $30.15MM in 2011. How’s seven years, $200 million sound? Should be fun.