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Spencer Schwellenbach’s Emergence Is Huge For Atlanta

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A lot has gone wrong for Atlanta this year. They came into the year as one of the best on-paper clubs. Prior to any regular season games being played, the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs gave them a 25.3% chance of winning the World Series and a 98.5% chance of making the postseason, both of those figures being the highest in the league.

It appears we may be living in one of the 1.5% of alternate universes where they don’t make the playoffs, as their season is currently on the brink. They are two games behind the Mets and 1.5 behind the Diamondbacks for the final two National League Wild Card spots with less than a week to play. They could still squeak in, especially as they’re hosting the Mets for three this week, but it’s going to be tight. That’s thanks to a combination of factors, as several players on the roster have either underperformed or missed significant time due to injury.

Things may have been even worse if not for a handful of positive developments. The Chris Sale pickup has worked out beautifully, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers. Signing Reynaldo López and moving him back to a starting role has also worked out well. Marcell Ozuna is having his best season in years. But they’ve also gotten a huge performance from rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, which is a big development for the club both this year and in the future.

Schwellenbach came into the year with fairly limited experience. The righty was drafted in 2021 but had Tommy John surgery afterwards, which kept him from making his professional debut until 2023. Once he was able to retake the mound, the results were strong. He pitched 65 innings on the farm last year, split between Single-A and High-A, allowing 2.49 earned runs per nine. He struck out 21.6% of opponents and kept his walks down to a 6.3% rate.

Another eight starts in the minors to start 2024, between High-A and Double-A, led to him getting a quick push to the majors. Atlanta had already lost Spencer Strider to season-ending UCL surgery and needed help in the rotation.

Schwellenbach was added to the roster and made his major league debut on May 29, just two days before his 24th birthday. He now has 19 starts under his belt and looks the part of a legit big league starter. In 109 2/3 innings, he has a 3.61 ERA. He has struck out 26.3% of batters faced and limited walks to a 4.9% clip.

Despite his fairly short track record as a professional, he seems to have a diverse and polished arsenal. Per Statcast, he has thrown six different pitches this year: a four-seamer, a sinker, cutter, slider, curveball and splitter. He has thrown all six of those offerings at least 7.4% of the time, and all but the sinker have been thrown at a 13.6% clip or higher. He hasn’t leaned on any individual pitch more than the 28.4% rate of four-seamers, making him difficult to predict.

Perhaps there’s an argument for him using the splitter a bit more, as he has some noticeable platoon splits at the moment. He’s held righties to a dismal line of .203/.242/.355 but lefties have a potent .267/.321/.462 performance against him so far. He has thrown that splitter 23.3% of the time against lefty hitters and allowed only a .161 batting average. However, his four-seamer, curveball and and cutter have each allowed a .308 average or higher while being thrown at least 13.8% of the time.

His slider and sinker are being thrown less than 10% of the time against lefties with solid results. Opponents are hitting .222 against the slider and .214 against the sinker. Schwellenbach has a 33.9% whiff rate when throwing sliders to lefties. Perhaps he could find better results by altering his pitch mix or maybe things will even out with the curveball. Opposing lefties are hitting .308 against it but his xBA is just .239 and his whiff rate is 41.9%.

Given the diversity of his pitch mix and the fact that he’s only getting his feet wet at the big league level, it seems fair to expect that he’ll figure out a way to tamp down on the big splits going forward.

Regardless of how that plays out in the future, he’s already a useful pitcher in the present. Though Atlanta is currently on the outside of the playoff picture, they would undoubtedly be even further back if Schwellenbach hadn’t hit the ground running in the big leagues. Some missteps would have been understandable given that he had limited experience and skipped over Triple-A entirely, but he has more than held his own and helped keep the club in the race this year. Guys like Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Darius Vines and Allan Winans all struggled in their major league looks this year, so the staff likely would have been in much worse shape if Schwellenbach didn’t take the ball those 19 times.

It’s also a key development for the club in the long term. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both set for free agency, leaving two holes in next year’s rotation. Fried seems likely to command a nine-figure deal that Atlanta hasn’t given to a free agent before. Morton is about to turn 41 years old and has hinted at thoughts of retirement in recent years.

Without Fried or Morton and with Strider set to miss the start of next year, Atlanta was slated to start 2025 with a rotation core of Sale and López. As mentioned, Sale is having a great year but he’s about to turn 36 and didn’t pitch much from 2020 to 2023. López is also having a strong season but is converting from the bullpen to the rotation and has perhaps hit a bit of a wall, as he’s gone on the IL twice in the second half, with the second stint currently ongoing.

Having Schwellenbach in that rotation picture makes it look much better and he’ll be a huge help from a financial perspective as well. Atlanta has a bunch of significant contracts on the books due to signing a number of extensions in recent years. That gives them a lot of continuity but also less financial wiggle room in the offseasons.

Since Schwellenbach was called up at the end of May, he won’t be able to get a full year of service time in 2024. Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, Schwellenbach isn’t eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, which means he can’t get a full year of service via Rookie of the Year voting. That means he won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2026 at the earliest, if he earns Super Two status, and can be controlled for six more seasons after this one.

Per RosterResource, the club has a competitive balance tax number of $197MM for next year. They will likely trigger club options on Ozuna ($16MM), Travis d’Arnaud ($8MM) and Aaron Bummer ($7.25MM). Bummer’s option has a $1.25MM buyout and Ozuna’s buyout is $1MM, though d’Arnaud’s has none. That means those three would add $29MM. Arbitration raises will be needed if they want to keep Jarred Kelenic and Ramón Laureano.

The club will be near next year’s $241MM base CBT threshold at the beginning of the offseason. Trading one of Ozuna or Soler could give them some extra wiggle room but they will have some things on the offseason to-do list. Upgrading on Orlando Arcia at shortstop could be part of their plans, and same for Kelenic/Laureano in the outfield. The starting rotation will definitely be a target area this winter but Schwellenbach should give them one fewer slot to fill, which could allow them to be more aggressive in addressing their remaining needs.

Previewing The 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Class: Shortstop

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MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free agent class continues with a look at shortstop. There’s more talent than was available last winter, though it’s still down relative to some of the star-studded classes of the preceding offseasons.

Player ages are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on September 23. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year are included.

Top of the Class

Adames has rebounded from a slightly down 2023 to turn in arguably the best season of his career. He has established a new personal high with 32 longballs while running a .250/.330/.468 slash over 663 plate appearances. Adames has swiped 19 bases — well above his previous career-high of eight — while driving in 110 runs. His strikeout rate has jumped in the second half, but he’s hitting for more power to compensate.

The other side of the ball hasn’t been as consistent. Adames, typically a plus defender, has had some uncharacteristic errors. Statcast still has him as a league average defender this year, but Defensive Runs Saved has been much more bearish (-14 runs). There’ll probably be teams that view this as an anomaly as opposed to a sign of physical decline at age 29. Adames has rare offensive upside for a shortstop and gets effusive praise for his leadership. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Brewers will receive draft compensation in the likely event that he walks. Adames could look for six or seven years on a deal that approaches the $177MM Dansby Swanson guarantee.

Everyday Player

Kim’s deal with the Padres contains a $10MM mutual option. His camp has an easy call to decline its end in search of a multi-year contract. While the South Korea native struggled in his first MLB season, he has been a key part of the San Diego infield over the past three years. Kim plays above-average to plus defense at any spot. He has been such a good defender that the Padres flipped Xander Bogaerts to second base in the second season of Bogaerts’ $280MM free agent deal.

Kim is a plus runner who stole 38 bases a year ago. He’s difficult to strike out and works plenty of walks. He doesn’t have overwhelming power but could put up 10-15 homers annually. A right shoulder injury sustained diving into the first base bag has kept him off the field for the past month. There’s no indication anything is structurally wrong, so the IL stint shouldn’t tank his market despite the inopportune timing. Kim figures to decline a QO and pursue a four-plus year deal that could land in the $75-100MM range.

Utility Options

Ahmed has seemingly been on a quest to tour the NL West. The longtime Diamondback has played for the Giants, Dodgers and Padres this year. He’s on San Diego’s roster as a bench player going into the postseason. Ahmed hasn’t provided any kind of offense — he’s hitting .232/.271/.300 across 221 plate appearances — but he remains a sure-handed defender. Aside from 11 innings at second base in 2014, Ahmed has played exclusively shortstop in the big leagues. There’s little doubt he could handle second or third base if needed, but he’s an all-glove option.

DeJong has logged upwards of 700 innings at shortstop while getting his first MLB work at third base. Defensive Runs Saved has soured on his shortstop work, rating him eight runs below average, though Statcast thinks he’s closer to par. The latter aligns with DeJong’s generally solid defensive track record. Offensively, DeJong strikes out a ton and doesn’t get on base consistently. He’s hitting .230 with a .277 on-base percentage this year and has a .269 OBP in more than 1500 plate appearances since the start of 2021. That won’t cut it as an everyday player, but he’s just one home run shy of the third 25-homer season of his career. The righty power and ability to defend throughout the infield play well in a utility role.

Farmer is a righty-hitting utilityman who has provided roughly league average offense in four straight seasons. This year’s .229/.308/.378 slash with five homers is a little below his typical standard, though that’s weighed down heavily by a terrible start. Farmer has a strong .286/.346/.473 career slash against left-handed pitching compared to a .236/.296/.357 mark without the platoon advantage. He has graded as a solid if unexceptional defender throughout his career, though that could drop off as he enters his age-34 season. Farmer’s deal with Minnesota contains a $6.25MM mutual option or a $250K buyout; the team is likely to decline its end.

Hernández has made a career off his defensive flexibility, clubhouse reputation and double-digit home run power. The Dodgers have used him most frequently at third base this season, though he’s picked up 59 2/3 innings at shortstop. Hernández isn’t a regular there but can moonlight at shortstop while playing more frequently at second base, third base and in center field. The right-handed hitter has a very poor average (.219) and on-base percentage (.272), but he’s got 11 homers in 373 plate appearances.

Iglesias spent all of 2023 in Triple-A. The former All-Star shortstop has had a resurgent return to the majors with the Mets since being called up at the end of May. Iglesias is hitting .337/.381/.459 over 265 plate appearances while splitting most of his time between second and third base. That huge offensive output is buoyed by a .380 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to maintain over a larger sample. That said, he remains a gifted pure contact hitter. He’s still a strong defender — he’d have gotten more opportunity at shortstop if not for Francisco Lindor — and has been a spark plug for the Mets’ clubhouse as part of their second half playoff push. He has certainly earned himself a major league deal during this trip to free agency.

This has been a quietly solid year for Newman. The former Pittsburgh first-rounder signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks over the winter. An early-season injury to Geraldo Perdomo opened the door for Newman in April. He’s held the roster spot all year while hitting .279/.313/.376 through 310 plate appearances. Newman is backing up Perdomo and Ketel Marte in the middle infield, logging more than 700 combined innings off Torey Lovullo’s bench. He has strong defensive marks at both spots and offense that isn’t far below league average. Newman isn’t going to provide any kind of power, but he makes enough contact to hit for a respectable average. He has probably earned himself a big league deal worth a couple million dollars.

Rosario has moved from an everyday shortstop role into a utility capacity. He was hitting .307/.331/.417 in 76 games with the Rays through the trade deadline. Tampa Bay flipped him to the Dodgers and things have gone downhill. Los Angeles surprisingly moved on from Rosario after just five games. He landed with the Reds on a waiver claim. In 21 games with Cincinnati, Rosario is hitting .161 with 23 strikeouts and just one walk over 58 plate appearances. His season batting line — .281/.307/.381 with three homers across 345 PAs — is now league average. Rosario graded as one of the worst defensive shortstops in the majors when he was playing there regularly and the market should view him as a utility type who handles left-handed pitching well.

Depth Players

The Marlins took a $5MM rebound flier on Anderson last offseason. It didn’t work. The two-time All-Star hit .214/.237/.226 over 65 games. Miami released him in July. Anderson has hit .235/.271/.274 since the start of last season. He’ll be looking at minor league offers.

Crawford signed with the Cardinals after the Giants moved on. St. Louis only got him into 28 games behind Rookie of the Year candidate Masyn Winn. Crawford hit .169/.263/.282 over 80 plate appearances and was released in August. He’d need to accept a minor league contract if he wants to continue playing. If this is it, the four-time Gold Glover and two-time World Series champ had an excellent career.

Díaz spent most of the season on the injured list due to a calf strain. He appeared in 14 games between the A’s and Astros, hitting .091 over 34 plate appearances. Díaz slumped to a .229/.280/.337 slash over a much larger sample with Oakland last year.

Club Options

The Dodgers hold a $5MM option on Rojas that comes with a $1MM buyout. The $4MM net call is a drop in the bucket for the Dodgers. Rojas is a sure-handed defender and respected clubhouse presence who has hit .287/.337/.416 in 101 games. He has played well enough to earn L.A.’s starting shortstop job going into October. Even as he enters his age-36 season, this is an easy call for the Dodgers to pick up.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Third Base

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MLBTR’s positional look at the upcoming free agent class continues with the hot corner. Last month, there looked to be a clear top two. The Matt Chapman extension leaves one player well above the rest. Teams that aren’t interested in dropping nine figures on the position may need to turn to the trade or non-tender markets for help.

Player ages are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on September 22. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year are included.

Top of the Class

Bregman stands head and shoulders above the rest of the third base class. He’s arguably the #2 position player available (albeit way behind Juan Soto). The two-time All-Star has overcome a frigid start to run a .257/.313/.435 slash with 25 homers over 619 plate appearances. That includes a robust .266/.320/.479 line in more than 500 trips since the start of May. Bregman’s walk rate has fallen off sharply, but he’s still an excellent contact hitter with 20-30 homer pop who plays strong defense.

The Astros will make a qualifying offer, which he’ll decline. Houston GM Dana Brown has indicated the team will stay in touch with Bregman’s camp at the Boras Corporation. It’ll be tough to get a deal done. The Astros’ franchise-record contract was the five-year, $151MM extension in 2018 for Jose Altuve. That’s also the amount which the Giants paid (albeit over six years) to extend Chapman a few weeks ago. Bregman is a year younger and a more consistent offensive performer than Chapman is. That feels like the floor, and he’ll probably look for something nearer to or exceeding $200MM over seven-plus years.

Utility Types/Bench Bats

A career-long middle infielder, DeJong had never played third base before this season. He has logged more than 300 innings over 36 starts at the hot corner. Most of that has come since a deadline deal to the Royals in deference to Bobby Witt Jr. Public defensive metrics have rated him well in that tiny sample, little surprise for a player who has been a reliable defensive shortstop throughout his career. DeJong strikes out a ton and doesn’t get on base consistently. He’s hitting .230 with a .277 on-base percentage this year and has a .269 OBP in more than 1500 plate appearances since the start of 2021. That won’t cut it as an everyday player, but he’s just one home run shy of the third 25-homer season of his career. The righty power and ability to defend throughout the infield play well in a utility role.

Drury topped 25 home runs in both 2022 and ’23. He looked like one of the better power-hitting infielders in the game entering this season. This year has been a disaster. He’s hitting .167/.242/.230 with all of four longballs over 92 games. Drury’s hard contact rate has plummeted and his power completely evaporated. He can play any infield spot aside from shortstop but isn’t a great defender. The disappointing walk year might put him in minor league deal territory.

Farmer is a righty-hitting utilityman who has provided roughly league average offense in four straight seasons. This year’s .229/.308/.378 slash with five homers is a little below his typical standard, though that’s weighed down heavily by a terrible start. Farmer has a strong .286/.346/.473 career slash against left-handed pitching compared to a .236/.296/.357 mark without the platoon advantage. He has graded as a solid if unexceptional defender throughout his career, though that could drop off as he enters his age-34 season. Farmer’s deal with Minnesota contains a $6.25MM mutual option or a $250K buyout; the team is likely to decline its end.

Hernández has made a career off his defensive flexibility, clubhouse reputation and double-digit home run power. The Dodgers have used him most frequently at third base this season. Hernández entered the season with a little more than 250 MLB innings at the position. He has played 529 frames over 60 starts there in 2024. The right-handed hitter has a very poor average (.219) and on-base percentage (.272), but he’s got 11 homers in 373 plate appearances.

Iglesias spent all of 2023 in Triple-A. The former All-Star shortstop has had a resurgent return to the majors with the Mets since being called up at the end of May. Iglesias is hitting .337/.381/.459 over 265 plate appearances while splitting most of his time between second and third base. That huge offensive output is buoyed by a .380 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to maintain over a larger sample. That said, he remains one of the more gifted pure contact hitters. He’s still a strong defender — he’d have gotten more opportunity at shortstop if not for Francisco Lindor — and has been a spark plug for the Mets’ clubhouse as part of their second half playoff push. He has certainly earned himself a major league deal during this trip to free agency.

Rosario has moved from an everyday shortstop role into a utility capacity. He was hitting .307/.331/.417 in 76 games with the Rays through the trade deadline. Tampa Bay flipped him to the Dodgers and things have gone downhill. Los Angeles surprisingly moved on from Rosario after just five games. He landed with the Reds on a waiver claim. In 21 games with Cincinnati, Rosario is hitting .161 with 23 strikeouts and just one walk over 58 plate appearances. His season batting line — .281/.307/.381 with three homers across 345 PAs — is now league average. Rosario has exactly 100 innings of third base work in his first season with MLB action at the hot corner. As is the case in the middle infield, he hasn’t graded highly in that minuscule sample.

Late-career Solano just hits. The righty-swinging infielder has been an average or better hitter in six straight seasons. Solano has carried that over in stints between the Giants, Reds, Twins and Padres. He’s sporting a .287/.342/.414 slash with seven homers through 292 plate appearances for San Diego this season. The market doesn’t value Solano’s skillset highly — he had to settle for a minor league deal last offseason — but he’s a nice player to have in a bat-first role off the bench. He has started 28 games and played more than 250 innings at the hot corner for San Diego.

Urshela was a productive everyday player for the Yankees for a few seasons. He didn’t hit for much power with the Angels last year and hasn’t made an offensive impact between the Tigers and Braves this season. He’s hitting .251/.287/.358 in a little more than 400 plate appearances. Urshela has been better with Atlanta than he was in Detroit. He should land a big league deal but is probably better suited for a utility role than everyday third base work as he enters his age-33 season.

Depth Players

A former regular with the Marlins, Anderson only had five plate appearances in three MLB games with Atlanta this year. He hit .237/.326/.365 through 84 contests in Triple-A.

Davis is in Triple-A with the Orioles, his fourth organization of the year. After being cut loose by the Giants in a late spring cost-saving move, he has slumped to a career-worst .218/.293/.338 line between the A’s and Yankees. Davis hasn’t hit at all in the minors either, striking out at a 44.5% clip while batting .147 in 30 games. He was a solid regular for San Francisco just last season and should be able to find a minor league deal somewhere.

Peterson started the season 1-22 with the Diamondbacks. He was released in April and has been a free agent for months. The lefty hitter turned in a .211/.304/.307 slash between the A’s and D-Backs a year ago.

Sanó was out of baseball in 2023 but returned on a minor league deal with the Angels last winter. He broke camp and appeared in 28 games, hitting .205 with two homers and a 37.9% strikeout rate in 95 plate appearances. The Halos released him around the All-Star Break.

The rebuilding Nationals and White Sox both took shots on Senzel. The former #2 overall draft pick continued to struggle, though, combining for a .195/.283/.331 slash across 267 plate appearances. Senzel is at 450+ games and more than 1600 plate appearances with production below replacement level in his career. He’s firmly in minor league deal territory.

Club Options

The White Sox are going to buy Moncada out for $5MM. He’ll be a free agent for the first time in his career. The switch-hitting infielder looked like he was making good on the immense prospect hype when he hit .315/.367/.548 and garnered down ballot MVP votes in 2019. His production dipped during the shortened season, rebounded with a strong ’21 campaign, and has fallen off sharply since then. Moncada combined for a .234/.288/.386 slash from 2022-23. He lost most of this season to an adductor strain and has been limited to a bench role with the Sox looking toward the future. Moncada only has 12 appearances on the season.

Suárez’s deal contains a $15MM option or a $2MM buyout. Three months ago, it looked like a lock to be bought out. Suárez was striking out at a near-30% clip and hitting .196/.279/.312 through the end of June. Arizona manager Torey Lovullo briefly planned to turn third base over to rookie Blaze Alexander and the D-Backs reportedly considered trading the veteran in what would’ve amounted to a salary dump.

They’re certainly glad they didn’t. Suárez has hit 23 home runs since July 1, tied with Brent Rooker for third in the majors behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. The veteran infielder is hitting .319/.362/.637 with an improved 24.9% strikeout rate over his past 301 plate appearances. Since the start of July, Suárez is 10th among qualified hitters in wRC+ and fifth in FanGraphs WAR — trailing only Witt, Judge, Lindor and Ohtani. The D-Backs presumably don’t expect him to continue playing like an MVP, but three months of elite play should make the option a relatively easy call to exercise. Even if the Diamondbacks are concerned about regression and/or want to turn third base over to prospect Jordan Lawlar next season, Suárez’s excellent run should give him surplus trade value on a $15MM salary.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Second Base

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

We’ve already looked through a generally weak catching class and a stronger (but older) group at first base. We’ll now turn our attention to second base. A quick note on eligibility: we’re only looking at players who have appeared in the majors this season and are either primary second basemen, utilitymen with 100+ innings at the position, or regulars at other positions who could draw legitimate interest as an everyday second baseman. (Ha-Seong Kim, for instance, has been exclusively a shortstop in ’24 but has more than 1000 innings at second base in his career.)

Potential Regulars

Jose Iglesias (35)

Iglesias has had a wildly unforeseen resurgence this season, OMG-ing his way into the hearts of Mets fans with an eye-popping .337/.381/.459 batting line in 265 plate appearances. Iglesias isn’t going to sustain his outlandish .380 average on balls in play, but his paltry 13.2% strikeout rate underscores that he still has plus bat-to-ball skills. He’s drawn strong ratings for his glovework at both second base and third base this season. The former has been his primary position, but Iglesias has long been a well-regarded defender who can handle either position and likely still soak up some innings at shortstop if needed. Teams are going to be skeptical of his ability to recreate this year’s stunning offensive performance, but he should still have a big league deal waiting for him this winter after such a strong showing.

Ha-Seong Kim (29)

Kim has been at least average at the plate in each of the past three seasons and is a plus defender at any of shortstop, second base or third base. He’ll draw interest as an everyday shortstop this offseason, and that’s probably where he’s most valuable, given the importance of that position. That said, he’s drawn his best marks in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average at second and is a clear everyday option at the position who could also slide elsewhere on the defensive spectrum as his team’s needs change (as he’s done in San Diego). Kim’s .233/.330/.370 line this season is a step back from last year’s .260/.351/.398, but he’s improved both his strikeout and walk rates for a third straight season and swiped 22 bases in 27 tries. Kim has been out since mid-August due to inflammation in his right shoulder. As long as that doesn’t prove to be a more serious issue, he should still command a notable multi-year deal, given his combination of youth, defensive excellence, plus speed and average (or slightly better) power.

Kim has a mutual option that won’t be picked up by both parties. The Padres can make him a qualifying offer if and when that option is declined.

Gleyber Torres (28)

It’s been a poor year overall for Torres by his standards, but perhaps not to the extent many onlookers realize. Torres had one of the worst months of his career in April, enjoyed a solid May and then slumped again in June, leaving him with dismal overall production through half the season. Since July 1, however, he’s hitting .286/.359/.398 in 302 plate appearances. His April now looks like a clear outlier, and if you mix in his slightly sub-par June and solid May, he’s hit .263/.336/.405 in 510 plate appearances. It’s a far cry from his peak output, but Torres has a track record of above-average offense and is finishing the season on his hottest stretch of the year (.320/.385/.469 in his past 143 plate appearances). He’s posted very poor defensive marks at second base, but he could still net a multi-year offer based on his offensive ceiling and age.

Utility Players/Bench Candidates

Brandon Drury (32)

Drury hit .262/.306/.497 with the Angels in 2023 after signing a two-year deal there. Some clubs might’ve looked to trade him after the team struggled so much in ’23, but the Halos held onto him and have watched the versatile slugger scuffle through one of the worst seasons of his career. He’s hitting just .167/.242/.230 (35 wRC+) in 339 plate appearances. Drury can handle any of second base, third base and first base. He’s dabbled in the outfield corners as well. After this season, he’s likely looking at a very low-cost one-year pact or, likelier, a minor league deal.

Adam Frazier (33)

A former All-Star, Frazier didn’t hit much with the 2022 Mariners or the 2023 Orioles, but the Royals added him on a big league deal in hopes of recapturing some of his previous form. It hasn’t happened. In 289 plate appearances, Frazier has batted .202/.283/.296. Kansas City has used him at second, third and in both outfield corners. Second base is traditionally his best position. He’s likely ticketed for a minor league deal this winter.

Garrett Hampson (30)

Another affordable offseason addition from the Royals, Hampson signed a $2MM deal last winter but has turned in just a .227/.271/.300 slash without a homer in 220 plate appearances. He can run and plays solid defense all over the infield and outfield, but Hampson’s lack of offense will probably limit him to a minor league deal.

Enrique Hernandez (33)

Hernandez keeps finding his way back to the Dodgers, but in his third stint with the team this year, he’s managed only a .219/.272/.362 showing. To his credit, he’s picked up the pace with the bat since the calendar flipped to August, but not enough to save his season. Hernandez is a fine second baseman and has been a lights-out center field defender in his career, but he’s now sitting on a .227/.285/.352 batting line over the past three seasons — in just shy of 1300 plate appearances overall.

Whit Merrifield (36)

“Two-hit Whit” led the big leagues in hits in both 2018 and 2019. He’s thrice led the league in stolen bases and has also put up MLB-leading doubles and triples totals in a pair of seasons. That all feels like a fairly distant memory, as Merrifield’s bat declined over his two seasons with Toronto and bottomed out when he batted .199/.277/.295 in 53 games with the Phillies before being cut loose. He’s rebounded to an extent in Atlanta after signing to fill in for the injured Ozzie Albies; Merrifield owns a .248/.348/.336 line in 161 plate appearances with the Braves. That and his track record could be enough to get him another big league deal this winter, but it’s been awhile since he was a durable All-Star-caliber second baseman. He can also play all three outfield spots and third base.

Amed Rosario (29)

Rosario hit .307/.331/.417 with the Rays before being traded to the Dodgers prior to the deadline. Los Angeles surprised quite a few people by designating Rosario for assignment after just 12 plate appearances. They paid a minimal price to get him in that trade with Tampa Bay though, and Rosario’s production (or lack thereof) since being claimed off waivers by the Reds has made the decision look more sensible. The Reds have given Rosario limited playing time, and he’s managed only a .161/.190/.214 batting line in 21 games/58 plate appearances there. Rosario can handle lefties nicely and hit for an empty average against fellow righties, but he lacks power and grades out poorly all around the diamond. He settled for a $1.5MM deal this past offseason coming off virtually identical rate stats to the ones he’s posted this season.

Tyler Wade (30)

Wade has played six positions for the Padres this season but is on his way to his third straight year of well below-average numbers at the plate. In 149 plate appearances, he’s hitting .229/.299/.252. Wade has homered one time since Opening Day 2021. He’s a solid middle infield defender who’s seen more sparse time at third base and across all three outfield spots. At best, he’ll compete for a bench role somewhere next spring.

Players with 2025 Options

Kyle Farmer (34) — $6.25MM mutual option, $250K buyout

Farmer missed a month this summer with a shoulder strain. He’s pulled his batting line up to nearly league-average after a terrible start to the season, with nearly all of his damage coming against lefties (.277/.342/.466 in 111 plate appearances).  Mutual options are virtually never exercised by both parties, however. It was a surprise to see the Twins tender a contract to Farmer and keep him amid payroll cuts last winter. They may try to bring him back at a lower rate in ’25, but this option will be declined.

Wilmer Flores (33) — $3.5MM player option

Flores hit just .206/.277/.317 in 242 plate appearances before undergoing a nonsurgical Tenex procedure on his ailing knee. He’s not going to command more than $3.5MM in free agency this winter, so it’d be a surprise if he didn’t pick his option up.

Brandon Lowe (30) — $10.5MM club option, $1MM buyout

Lowe has had two poor months at the plate (April, September), two roughly months at the plate (May, August) and two blistering months at the plate (June, July) in 2024. It’s been something of a roller coaster overall, but the end result is a .242/.312/.475 batting line with 20 big flies. Even if the Rays are wary of paying Lowe $10.5MM next year, it’s an easy call to pick this up and look for a trade partner. He has an $11.5MM option for 2026 as well.

Jorge Polanco (31) — $12MM club option, $750K buyout

Polanco’s bat has picked up some since a disastrous start to the season, but he’s run out of time to salvage his season. His .206/.290/.343 line is a major surprise for a player who was consistently productive from 2018-23 in Minnesota, when he batted a combined .270/.338/.455 and even ripped 33 homers during the 2021 season. At the time the Mariners acquired Polanco from the Twins, it looked like they were solidifying second base for two seasons, but Polanco’s option now looks likely to be declined.

Miguel Rojas (35) — $5MM club option, $1MM buyout

Rojas will turn 36 in February, but he’s hitting .287/.337/.416 with plus defense at shortstop and the ability to handle either second base or third base as well. For a net $4MM, this is an obvious call for the Dodgers to exercise.

The Rays Already Look Primed For A Rebound In 2025

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After years of regularly exceeding expectations brought about by their low payrolls and reliance on unproven talent and/or reclamation projects, the 2024 Rays have finally had a rough season. At 74-78, they've been out of playoff contention for quite some time and have uncharacteristically been outscored by 60 runs. This will be their first playoff miss since 2018, although even that season saw them win 90 games. This is shaping up to be Tampa Bay's first sub-.500 season since 2017 -- a remarkable feat when considering the front office's perennially limited budget and the subsequent roster churn that brings about.

The Rays operated as sellers at the deadline, trading their most established power bat (Randy Arozarena), two starting pitchers (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), their All-Star third baseman (Isaac Paredes), one of their best relievers (Jason Adam) and a series of useful role players (Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Tyler Zuber).

Oftentimes, deadline sales of that magnitude serve as a portent for an offseason dedicated to rebuilding, as recently illustrated by the 2023 White Sox and the 2021-22 Nationals. That type of rebuild, however, seems largely unnecessary in Tampa Bay. Even with a lineup consisting of unproven journeymen and a host of light-hitting, glove-first regulars (e.g. Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Caballero), the Rays already look like a team that could jump back into contention as early as next season.

Let's take a look at the reasons for that.

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Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: First Base

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams kicked things off with a look at a generally weak catching class. There’s a stronger group at first base, even if age is an issue for a lot of these players. A quick note on eligibility: we’re looking only at players who have appeared in the majors this season and are either primary first baseman or have logged 100+ innings at the position. Utility players like Enrique Hernández and Brandon Drury can play first base but will be covered in future positional previews. Ages are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on September 18.

Top of the Class

Alonso is in a tier of his own in this year’s first base class. He is one of the sport’s preeminent power bats. Even in a relative down year, he has drilled 33 homers while slugging .472. Alonso has topped 30 longballs in all five full seasons of his career and was on a 43-homer pace during the shortened schedule. His .246/.331/.472 batting line is 26 points better than league average, according to wRC+. That’s tied for fifth among first basemen (min. 400 PAs) and feels like Alonso’s floor for the next few years.

The Mets will make him a qualifying offer, which he’ll reject. Alonso reportedly declined a $158MM extension offer in 2023 — made under former GM Billy Eppler. He’ll probably take aim at $200MM, though it has been more than a decade since any first basemen hit that mark. The more recent Matt Olson ($168MM) and Freddie Freeman ($162MM) guarantees may be more realistic benchmarks.

Everyday Players

Walker didn’t get a real MLB look until his age-28 season. He seized the opportunity once it finally presented itself and is one of the best all-around first basemen in the sport. Walker won consecutive Gold Gloves between 2022-23 while posting an OPS above .800 in three straight years. He has 26 homers — including seven in just 29 plate appearances as a visitor at Dodger Stadium — with an excellent .257/.342/.485 slash line. An oblique strain that shelved him through August is the main reason he might not get to 30 homers for a third straight year.

Arizona has an easy call to tag Walker with a qualifying offer. He’s likely to decline in search of a three- or four-year contract. Multi-year deals for first basemen in their mid-30s are rare, but Walker should be in high enough demand to merit it.

Goldschmidt had one of the worst stretches of his career early in the season. As Steve Adams explored this week, the 2022 NL MVP has kicked things into gear in recent weeks. This will be Goldy’s worst season overall, as he has career lows in all three slash stats (.242/.302/.412). His .270/.322/.485 line since the All-Star Break is more in line with what the Cardinals were expecting. Goldschmidt has never hit free agency — he signed extensions with both Arizona and St. Louis — and therefore has never received a qualifying offer. It seems unlikely that St. Louis would risk him accepting a salary exceeding $21MM for next year, but that’d be an alright investment if the Cards expect him to carry his second-half form into 2025.

The Twins signed Santana for $5.25MM in February. He had a terrible April but has been a steady, productive player over the past few months. Since the start of May, the switch-hitter owns a strong .253/.339/.446 line with 18 homers across 446 plate appearances. He remains one of the three to five best defensive first basemen in the game despite his age. The ultra-durable Santana has again avoided the injured list and has reached 140 games for the 12th time in his career. He certainly doesn’t carry the upside of Alonso or Walker, but he has easily outperformed Minnesota’s modest investment.

Turner is more of a designated hitter than a full-time first baseman, but he has gotten 35 starts at the position between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Turner had a fairly modest .256/.350/.372 showing over 91 games with Toronto. It looked as if he might be slowing down at age 39, but he has found another gear since being traded at the deadline. Turner owns a .260/.361/.420 slash with five home runs in 39 games with Seattle — impressive power output in a home park that has stymied a lot of the M’s offensive acquisitions. By measure of wRC+, Turner has been 17 percentage points above league average at the plate. That’s slightly better than last year’s .276/.345/.455 showing with the Red Sox. Turner got $13MM last offseason and still hasn’t dropped off.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

Bell had a rough first few months, hitting .239/.305/.394 in 104 games with the Marlins. He has found his stride after a deadline trade to Arizona, where he carries a .278/.364/.421 slash with four homers through 154 trips to the plate. The aggregate production is still middling — a league average .249/.320/.401 line with very poor defensive grades — but Bell is finishing the season on a high note. He has been a streaky hitter throughout his career who can hit in the middle third of a lineup when he’s at his best.

Canha has logged a career-high 356 1/3 innings at first base, a bit more time than he has played in the outfield. That’s probably a sign of things to come as he gets into his late-30s. The affable veteran has a .238/.341/.342 slash over 451 plate appearances between the Tigers and Giants on the season. He won’t match this year’s $11.5MM salary but should have no trouble finding another big league deal.

Late-career Solano just hits. The righty-swinging infielder has been an average or better hitter in six straight seasons. Solano has carried that over in stints between the Giants, Reds, Twins and Padres. He’s sporting a .286/.340/.412 slash with seven homers through 285 plate appearances for San Diego this season. The market doesn’t value Solano’s skillset highly — he had to settle for a minor league deal last offseason — but he’s a nice player to have in a bat-first role off the bench.

Tellez started the season horribly, went on an absolute tear midway through the summer, and has crashed back to earth in September. In aggregate, he has a .245/.302/.395 slash with 13 homers over 410 plate appearances for the Pirates. It’s slightly below-average offense and sub-replacement production overall considering his lack of defensive value. Tellez has decent career numbers against right-handed pitching (.235/.302/.450) and is a better fit as a lefty bench bat than a regular at first base.

Depth Types

Abreu was one of the worst players in the league in the season’s first half. The former MVP hit .124/.167/.195 over 35 games. The Astros released him midway through the second season of his ill-fated $58.5MM free agent deal. Reporter Francys Romero tweeted in June that Abreu would sit out the rest of the season but could make a comeback effort next year. It’d be on a minor league deal, but if he gets back to the majors, he’d only make the league minimum with his new team. Houston still owes him the rest of his $19.5MM salary.

Cooper appeared in 36 games between the Cubs and Red Sox, hitting .206/.267/.299 while striking out 30% of the time. He has been far better over a 19-game stint in Triple-A with the Orioles, where he sports a .299/.388/.493 slash with four homers.

Davis is in Triple-A with the Orioles, his fourth organization of the year. After being cut loose by the Giants in a late spring cost-saving move, he has slumped to a career-worst .218/.293/.338 line between the A’s and Yankees. Davis hasn’t hit at all in the minors either, striking out at a 44.4% clip while batting .150 in 30 games. He was a solid regular for San Francisco just last season and should be able to find a minor league deal somewhere.

Gallo is hitting .152/.276/.305 across 67 games with the Nationals on a $5MM free agent deal. Washington is going to decline its end of a 2025 mutual option. Gallo is striking out as much as ever and hasn’t hit for anywhere near the level of power necessary to offset that.

Gurriel spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Braves. He had an impressive .292/.378/.485 showing. While that didn’t earn him a look in Atlanta, the Royals acquired him in a minor trade after losing Vinnie Pasquantino to injury. Gurriel is hitting .385 over 10 games with Kansas City.

Smith got a decent run as the Red Sox’s fill-in while Triston Casas was injured. The former Met took 278 plate appearances and posted a slightly below-average .237/.317/.390 line with six home runs. He briefly caught on with the Reds after Boston let him go. Smith didn’t hit over a minuscule nine-game sample in Cincinnati and has been a free agent since the Reds removed him from the 40-man roster earlier this month.

Urshela is primarily a third baseman, but he logged 15 starts at first base for Detroit this year. Between the Tigers and Braves, he owns a mediocre .241/.280/.335 slash with six homers across 422 plate appearances. It’s his least productive year since he broke out as an everyday player with the Yankees in 2019.

The former All-Star hasn’t been the same since a bout with thoracic outlet syndrome. Walsh hit .226/.317/.321 in 17 games for the Rangers while Nathaniel Lowe was on the injured list early this season. He subsequently hit .185 with a 37% strikeout rate in Triple-A for the White Sox and was released a couple weeks before the deadline.

Player Options

Bellinger can opt out of his three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs. He’d be leaving $50MM on the table to do so and has another opt-out chance after next season. Bellinger has had a nice season but hasn’t answered teams’ questions about his subpar exit velocities. He’s hitting .268/.330/.435 with 18 homers while striking out at just a 16% clip. He’s still capable of playing center field but has also gotten decent run in right field and at first base. Bellinger could probably beat $50MM if he simply wanted to maximize his guarantee, but he’s not likely to match next year’s $27.5MM salary on a multi-year pact. He could bet on himself and view the 2025-26 offseason as the right time to opt out.

Hoskins signed with the Brewers on a two-year, $34MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. It’s a net $18MM call. He’d collect a $4MM buyout if he opts out or could secure an $18MM salary for next season (plus a matching $4MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option). This isn’t a great time to retest the market. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have each graded the typically consistent Hoskins as a replacement level player this year. He has 25 homers but personal lows in batting average (.212) and on-base percentage (.299) while striking out a career-high 28% rate. If he goes on a tear in the playoffs, maybe the calculus changes, but this looks like an option that’ll be exercised.

Flores holds a $3.5MM option on his deal with the Giants. San Francisco would have an $8.5MM option if the veteran infielder declined his end. That won’t be necessary, as Flores looks like a lock to take the $3.5MM salary. He hit .206/.277/.318 across 242 plate appearances and suffered a season-ending right knee injury in July.

Club Options

The Orioles hold an $8MM option for next season. O’Hearn’s strong first half made that look like a clear bargain. The left-handed hitter went into the All-Star Break with a .274/.335/.456 line with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His plate discipline is still strong but his power has dissipated in the second half. O’Hearn only has two homers with a .224/.317/.340 line since the Break, including a .163/.226/.245 showing this month. Baltimore should have a lot of payroll flexibility and could bet on O’Hearn to bounce back, but this is more of a borderline call than it seemed six weeks ago.

The Yankees are going to opt for a $6MM buyout in lieu of a $17MM option on Rizzo. The three-time All-Star is hitting .219/.285/.330 over 347 plate appearances. He missed a couple months earlier in the season after breaking his arm in a collision with Boston reliever Brennan Bernardino. This has been Rizzo’s toughest year since his rookie campaign.

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Catchers

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market. We’ll start things off with catchers. Ages listed are for the 2025 season, and stats are up to date through Sept. 18.

Potential Regulars/Platoon Options

Elias Diaz (34)

Diaz was the MVP of the 2023 All-Star Game, but he’s struggled to the point where that feels like a distant memory. The Rockies released him in August, a move that surprised some but came on the heels of a bleak slump following a calf injury. He later latched on with the Padres. Diaz made enough contact early in the season that he’s still sporting a .262 batting average, but it’s an empty .262 as it’s coupled with a .310 OBP and .369 slugging percentage. Since returning from the injured list in June, he’s hitting .198/.238/.259.

While he’s never been considered a strong defender, Diaz has posted above-average marks in 2024’s relatively small sample. If a club thinks he can sustain those over a full year and bounce back to the form he had prior to his calf strain, he could land another starting job. It’s also possible that his shaky defensive track record and grim finish to the season relegate him to part-time offers or even a minor league deal, however. He’s the most volatile name in this category with regard to his potential contract status.

Kyle Higashioka (35)

Higashioka has saved his best output of his career for his age-34 campaign. In his first season with the Padres, he’s swatted a career-high 16 homers in just 241 plate appearances. He’s a perennially plus defender behind the dish who rarely gets on base, and that hasn’t changed, but this year’s power output could pique the interest of clubs on a one- or two-year deal, despite his age.

Higashioka strikes out too much and doesn’t walk frequently enough, and that’s true versus both righties and lefties. His .223/.271/.487 batting line is one of the stranger slashes you’ll see across the league this season, but between his power and plus glovework he’s been worth 1.3 bWAR and 1.6 fWAR. It’s not out of the question to think a catching-needy club could see a potential two-win catcher here and give him the biggest role of his career. To this point, Higashioka has never logged even 300 plate appearances in a big league season.

Danny Jansen (30)

Jansen looked like the clear top option in this class coming into the season, but he’s tanked his stock with a .207/.309/.356 batting line. That 91 wRC+ is still about average for a catcher, but Jansen’s typically strong framing grades have taken a dive this season, as has his power. He’s hit just nine homers this year after popping 17 in 301 plate appearances a year ago and 15 in 248 plate appearances in 2022. This year’s .146 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-low mark.

Jansen is relatively young and from 2021-23 slashed a combined .237/.317/.487 with 43 taters in only 754 plate appearances — all while playing well-regarded defense. He could still land a multi-year deal based on that track record, but it’s not going to be nearly as strong of one as he’d have managed if he’d maintained his output over the three prior seasons. Jansen has also missed substantial time due to various injuries over the years — broken wrist, two separate broken fingers, oblique strain, groin strain, hamstring strain — and the “injury-prone” label won’t do him any favors.

Carson Kelly (30)

Kelly may have boosted his stock as much as Jansen harmed his own. The former top prospect has long been a terrific defender but looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022-23. In 2024, he’s lopped nearly nine percentage points off his strikeout rate, maintained a nearly average walk rate and improved not only the frequency of his contact but the quality of his batted balls as well.

The resulting .243/.320/.373 batting line is right on par with that of a league-average hitter and about 10% better than the average catcher. He’s also still a premium defensive backstop, evidenced by better-than-average framing and blocking marks as well as a 26% caught-stealing rate (30% with the Tigers, where he spent the bulk of the season). Kelly’s rebound has flown under the radar, but a league-average bat with a plus glove behind the plate heading into his age-30 season is a recipe for a multi-year deal and a potential regular role in 2025.

Gary Sanchez (32)

Sanchez’s defense has improved over the years. He’s not a liability behind the plate despite still being unable to completely shake off that label from earlier in his career. As that uptick in defensive value has transpired, however, his contributions with the bat have waned. He’s hitting .224/.313/.399 this season — roughly league-average offense — and has smacked 10 homers in 256 plate appearances. Sanchez has spent more time at DH than at catcher over the past two seasons but has fared better offensively when he’s in the game behind the plate.

Jacob Stallings (35)

Stallings’ elite defensive ratings from earlier in his career have declined to the point where he’s drawn below-average marks in three straight seasons. A downturn in his framing metrics are the primary cause for that deterioration, though he also posted well below-average caught-stealing marks in 2022-23. He’s rebounded with his throwing this season (23% caught-stealing). More than that, Stallings is enjoying far and away his best offensive season in the majors. His .260/.353/.450 batting line is “only” about 12% better than average by measure of wRC+, thanks to some heavy weighting for Coors Field, but Stallings has actually produced better numbers away from Coors than at home. A career year at age 34 is going to draw some skepticism, but he should draw a big league deal and receive decent playing time — perhaps even back with the Rockies, as there’s mutual interest in a reunion.

Backups/Depth Candidates

Tucker Barnhart (34)

Barnhart won a pair of Gold Gloves earlier in his career but has seen his glovework decline and his playing time dwindle as his bat has eroded. He hit .173/.287/.210 in 96 plate appearances with the D-backs this season and is likely looking at another minor league deal this winter.

Yan Gomes (37)

Gomes hit .154/.179/.242 in 96 plate appearances with the Cubs before being released in favor of fellow depth option Tomas Nido. He’s only a year removed from a solid season in Chicago, but coming off a season like that and heading into his age-37 campaign, he’ll very likely need to take a minor league deal if he wants to continue playing.

Yasmani Grandal (36)

A plus framer but one of the worst-throwing catchers in the sport at this point, Grandal has been a backup in Pittsburgh and posted a 9% caught-stealing rate this year. He’s hitting .218/.293/.371 with seven dingers in 228 plate appearances. He could land another backup gig, but he’s not a lock to land a big league deal.

Austin Hedges (32)

Hedges is as good as it gets defensively but nearly as bad as it gets offensively. He’s sporting a 23 wRC+ for the second straight season, indicating he’s been 77% worse than average at the plate. Since 2023, he owns a combined .173/.224/.227 line in 353 plate appearances. The Guardians love his glove so much they gave him $4MM and have kept him on the roster all season. He’ll likely command another low-cost one-year deal to serve as a backup.

Martin Maldonado (38)

Maldonado produced only a .119/.174/.230 slash in 147 plate appearances with the White Sox this season. He was better at the plate with the Astros from 2021-23 but still one of the sport’s least-productive hitters in that three-year stretch. Teams love Maldonado’s game-calling and work with their pitchers, but his lack of offense has reached dire levels.

James McCann (35)

McCann’s carrying trait used to be pummeling left-handed pitching, but he’s faded in that regard in recent years. He’s hitting .220/.266/.340 in 218 plate appearances with the Orioles. A minor league deal feels likely for the former White Sox and Mets backstop.

Omar Narvaez (33)

The Mets released Narvaez after he hit .154/.191/.185 in 69 plate appearances. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros and hit .203/.327/.316 for their Triple-A club. Narvaez hasn’t produced at the plate since 2021 and will be limited to minor league offers.

Tomas Nido (31)

Nido just signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. He’s been released by both the Mets and Cubs this season. Like many others on this list, he’s a plus defender with a negligible offensive ceiling. In his past 675 plate appearances in the majors, Nido is a .215/.249/.305 hitter — numbers that mirror his .210/.245/.309 line almost exactly.

Club Options

Austin Barnes (35) – $3.5MM club option

The Dodgers have long valued Barnes’ framing skills, but his throwing has cratered over the past two seasons, as he’s caught just 10.5% of runners attempting to steal against him. Barnes is hitting .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances. It’s a borderline call for the Dodgers to keep him, particularly with Will Smith now signed for a decade and a trio of younger catching options behind him (Hunter Feduccia, Dalton Rushing, Diego Cartaya). If he’s bought out, he’ll get some interest as a framing-driven backup.

Travis d’Arnaud (36) – $8MM club option (no buyout)

The Braves love d’Arnaud, who’s posted a solid .242/.306/.446 batting line and 14 homers in 317 plate appearances this season. Even if Atlanta doesn’t want to retain d’Arnaud at $8MM, they could turn down the option, pay no buyout, and try to bring him back at a lower rate.

Luke Maile (34) – $3.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Maile is typically regarded as a solid defender but has seen his glovework dip this year while posting one of the worst offensive performances of his career: .157/.255/.228 in 146 plate appearances. He’ll be a depth option for catcher-needy clubs on a minor league deal this winter.

Max Stassi (34) – $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Stassi hasn’t played this season due to hip surgery. His option will be bought out. He last appeared in a big league game in 2022. He’s regarded as a premium framer who has at times shown offensive upside, but he’ll be looking at a minor league deal this offseason.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions

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The regular season is winding down, and while nearly half the league is still focused on postseason play (or qualifying for said playoffs), there are more teams than not beginning to shift their focus and look ahead to the offseason. The beginning of every offseason brings with it a slew of roster decisions, ranging from qualifying offers to player opt-outs and club options. This year will see more than 30 decisions on club options come due once the World Series has completed. We don’t have a complete picture of how all of these players will finish the season. Their play in the final week, plus any postseason heroics and of course the potential for a significant injury could all impact the teams’ final decisions. But with about 94% of the regular season in the books, most teams know which way they’re leaning with regard to these decisions.

Let’s take a look at each one from a high level…

Austin Barnes, C, Dodgers: $3.5MM club option

The Dodgers’ love Barnes’ framing skills. They probably don’t love that he’s 13-for-122 in throwing out base thieves over the past two seasons (10.6%). Barnes isn’t a good hitter, but he’s bounced back from last year’s abysmal .180/.256/.242 output to his .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances this year. The Dodgers have a trio of younger options behind Will Smith, including Diego Cartaya, Hunter Feduccia and top prospect Dalton Rushing (though Rushing has been working in left field lately). Perhaps it’s finally time to move on, but the cost is cheap enough that they could consider the option.

Aaron Bummer, LHP, Braves: $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)

A pair of three-run outings over the past five weeks have inflated Bummer’s ERA from 3.16 to 3.71, but he’s still generally been a quality reliever after coming over from the White Sox in the offseason. Drilling beneath that earned run average, Bummer sports clearly plus rate stats: 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 60.4% grounder rate. That ground-ball rate ranks eighth in baseball among the 352 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings in 2024. That alone would make Bummer’s option likely to be picked up, but the fact that the Braves hold a 2026 option valued at $7.5MM only sweetens the pot. This feels likely to be exercised.

Andrew Chafin, LHP, Rangers: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Chafin was very good in Detroit prior to being traded and has struggled with the Rangers since the swap. He’s pitched 14 2/3 innings for Texas and logged a 4.30 ERA with more troubling underlying stats, including a 16.9% walk rate and 1.84 HR/9. Chafin has a strong track record and will get another big league deal this winter, but that’ll probably come after having this option bought out.

Seranthony Dominguez, RHP, Orioles: $8MM club option ($500K buyout)

Dominguez has had a bizarre Orioles tenure. He’s stepped into the ninth inning, saved nine games, punched out a huge 32.9% of his opponents and recorded a tidy 3.26 ERA. He’s also been clobbered for a staggering six home runs in just 19 1/3 innings. A ridiculous 37.5% of the hits he’s allowed with Baltimore have been home runs. Dominguez is averaging better than 98 mph on his heater and sporting elite strikeout/walk rates. If the O’s believe his home run troubles to be a small-sample fluke, this net $7.5MM is a reasonable price to pay for a flamethrowing late-inning reliever — even if he’s working as a setup man to a returning Felix Bautista next year.

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Gibson has been precisely the stabilizing innings eater the Cardinals hoped to be getting when they signed him. He’s tossed 159 2/3 innings of 4.11 ERA ball, striking out 21.3% of opponents (his best since 2019). His 9.2% walk rate is higher than usual for the 6’6″ righty, but Gibson is limiting homers (1.13 HR/9), keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average clip (45.2%) and averaging better than 5 2/3 innings per start. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently noted how quickly the Missouri native has become a vital leader in the clubhouse as well. For a net $11MM, Gibson feels like a lock to be back in St. Louis.

Marco Gonzales, LHP, Pirates: $15MM club option

Gonzales began the season with three nice starts for the Pirates before enduring a three-month absence due to a flexor injury. He pitched well in his mid-July return, then struggled through three starts before landing back on the shelf and eventually undergoing flexor surgery that’ll keep him out for a significant portion of next season. This would be a no-brainer to decline even if there were a buyout of some magnitude, but there isn’t one, so it’s a foregone conclusion that this will be declined.

Luke Jackson, RHP, Braves: $7MM club option ($2MM buyout)

The 33-year-old Jackson has trimmed his ERA a bit since being traded from San Francisco back to Atlanta, but he’s still sitting on a 5.12 mark this season (4.50 with the Braves). He’s walked 11.1% of his opponents in 2024, including a grim 13.5% mark in 16 frames with Atlanta. The Braves already have a deep and pricey bullpen. Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson and the aforementioned Bummer (assuming his option is indeed exercised) will earn a combined $39.25MM next year. Even if the Braves want to bring Jackson back, they could probably buy this option out and look to do so at a lower rate.

Eloy Jimenez, OF/DH, Orioles: $16.5MM club option ($3MM buyout)

After a hot start following his trade to the Orioles, Jimenez has been a disappointment in Baltimore. Heralded as one of the game’s top prospects and signed to a then-record contract for a player with no MLB experience, he homered 31 times as a rookie but has since battled injuries as his offensive output has dwindled. Jimenez still makes boatloads of hard contact, but most of it comes on the ground; his 56.3% grounder rate is one of the highest in baseball, and it negates his immense raw power. It’d be a shock if the Orioles picked this up for a net $13.5MM.

Merrill Kelly, RHP, D-backs: $7MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Shoulder problems have limited Kelly to 11 starts this season, and he’s posted a 4.00 ERA with uncharacteristic homer issues in 63 innings (1.57 HR/9). He’s also sporting a 19.1% strikeout rate that’s down more than six percentage points from 2023. Even still, this is a flat bargain price for a pitcher who’s given the Snakes 813 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball since signing after a terrific four-year run in the KBO. Barring a scenario where his shoulder is in worse shape than anyone realizes, this option is one of the easier calls to exercise among this year’s slate.

Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF, Rays: $10.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

It’s been a fairly typical season for Lowe. He’s had strong production at the plate when healthy — but that’s again been a notable caveat. The 30-year-old slugger is hitting .244/.319/.476 with 18 round-trippers in only 379 plate appearances. An oblique strain cost him about six weeks early in the season. Lowe has never had a below-average season at the plate. This year’s 126 wRC+ is an exact match for his career mark. His salary might be getting steep for the Rays’ frugal owner, but a $10.5MM salary in 2025 and an $11.5MM club option for the 2026 season give him trade value for Tampa Bay.

Lance Lynn, RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Because of a knee injury that shelved him on July 31 and kept him out of action into September, Lynn hasn’t pitched as many innings as his rotationmate on this list, Gibson. He’s been effective when on the bump, posting a 3.96 ERA in 111 1/3 innings with respectable strikeout and walk rates of 21.3% and 8.6%. Lynn has been unable to complete five innings in nearly one-third of his starts this season, though, and he’s heading into his age-38 season (as opposed to Gibson’s age-37). With Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and presumably Gibson all in next year’s rotation, plus younger arms like Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy and Sem Robberse all in the mix, Lynn could be bought out in order to reallocate those dollars to other areas of need.

Manuel Margot, OF, Twins: $12MM club option ($2MM buyout)

The Twins acquired Margot in a trade that saw the Dodgers cover the majority of his salary. Minnesota is only on the hook for $4MM of what he’s owed in 2024.  The Rays, who initially traded him to the Dodgers, agreed to cover the $2MM buyout on Margot’s option as part of the trade. The Twins aren’t bringing Margot back at $12MM. He’s hit lefties quite well but has floundered against righties and is no longer the premium defender he once was. This is a lock to be declined.

Phil Maton, RHP, Mets: $7.75MM club option ($250K buyout)

The Rays signed Maton to a one-year, $6.5MM deal in mid-February. He struggled throughout his time with Tampa Bay, with uncharacteristically poor strikeout and walk rates (19.7% and 11.9%, respectively). The Rays traded Maton to the Mets in an early July swap that netted them a PTBNL. It was a salary-driven swap and it’s worked out wonderfully for the Mets. Maton has not only returned to form but enjoyed one of the best stretches of his career. In 22 2/3 innings, he touts a 2.38 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. The net $7.5MM decision could still prove steep, particularly for a team that typically lives in the top luxury tax bracket and would thus effectively be paying a 110% tax on next year’s $7.75MM salary. The Mets can afford it if they feel this version of Maton will sustain his output over a full season, but it’s a borderline call.

Shelby Miller, RHP, Tigers: $4.45MM club option ($250K buyout)

Miller’s one-year, $3.25MM deal with Detroit included a $4.25MM club option, but he’s boosted that option value by $200K thanks to escalators in his contract tied to his number of games pitched. With a 4.53 ERA, below-average strikeout rate and a notable susceptibility to home runs, Miller is far from a lock to see the option picked up. He’s doing his best to make the Tigers think about it, however, with a 1.15 ERA and 16-to-4 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings across his past 14 appearances.

Yoan Moncada, 3B, White Sox: $25MM club option ($5MM buyout)

Moncada missed more than five months with an adductor injury and now has a .236/.292/.387 slash across his past 207 big league games. The White Sox will buy him out.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF, Orioles $8MM club option

O’Hearn’s big first half, which was fueled by an astonishing drop to a sub-10% strikeout rate, has given way to a pedestrian second half. Like many O’s hitters, he’s limping to the finish line. After hitting .274/.352/.452 through his first 364 plate appearances, O’Hearn has tanked with a .189/.240/.267 slash in his past 96 trips to the plate. That’s dropped his season line to a good-not-great .255/.328/.411 (111 wRC+). Baltimore has only given the lefty-swinging O’Hearn 39 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year, and that $8MM salary is starting to feel like more than they’ll want to commit to a defensively limited platoon bat, particularly considering their crowded roster of position players.

Marcell Ozuna, DH, Braves: $16MM club option ($1MM buyout)

The 34-year-old Ozuna is in the midst of his worst month of the season, but even that means he’s merely been about league-average at the plate in September. He sports a mountainous .303/.380/.550 slash and 37 dingers on the season. It’s the best performance of his career outside the 60-game 2020 season (.338/.431/.636). Atlanta will pick this option up, even with Jorge Soler locked into the roster for two more seasons following his deadline acquisition.

Freddy Peralta, RHP, Brewers: $8MM club option ($1.5MM buyout)

Among the easiest calls in this slate of club options, Peralta currently has a 3.75 ERA in 30 starts and 163 1/3 innings of work. He’s set down nearly 27% of his opponents on strikes and issued walks at a 9.2% clip. If his steady mid-rotation work over the years wasn’t incentive enough to pick up this option — and, for the record, it very much is — the contract contains a second club option for the 2026 season, which is also valued at $8MM.

Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners: $12MM club option ($750K buyout)

Like so many of the Mariners’ recent acquisitions, things just haven’t clicked in Seattle for Polanco. The switch-hitter was steadily (and quietly) a big contributor in Minnesota from 2018-23, hitting .270/.338/.445 — including a 33-homer showing in his peak 2021 campaign. With the Mariners, he’s slashed just .203/.296/.342 on the season. To Polanco’s credit, he picked things up around the season’s midpoint and posted solid numbers in July and August, but he’s in a dreadful September swoon and appears destined to have this option bought out.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Yankees: $17MM club option ($6MM buyout)

Rizzo missed 63 games with the 2023 Yankees and turned in a roughly league-average performance at the plate. He’s going to end up missing about 70 games this season, thanks to a broken forearm. At the moment, he owns a .215/.283/.325 batting line on the season — his worst output since his rookie season with the 2011 Padres. The 35-year-old’s option is likely to be declined.

Miguel Rojas, SS, Dodgers: $5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

A .297/.342/.421 batting line (115 wRC+) through 315 plate appearances, coupled with borderline elite defense at shortstop, for a net $4MM. Not much more needs to be said. This one is an easy call to exercise.

Max Stassi, C, White Sox: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Acquired in a salary-dump trade with the Braves over the winter, Stassi opened the season on the injured list with hip inflammation and eventually required surgery. He didn’t get into a game this year. This will be bought out.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, D-backs: $15MM club option ($2MM buyout)

Earlier in the season, Suarez’s struggles at the plate led the D-backs to reduce his playing time in favor of rookie Blaze Alexander. Things can change in a hurry. Since July 1, Suarez boasts a gargantuan .321/.369/.663 batting line (177 wRC+). He’s ripped 22 homers and 18 doubles in 274 plate appearances during that stretch. Suarez is now two big flies shy of his fifth 30-homer season. There’s no reason to think the D-backs will want to move on, but even if they did, they could pick up this $15MM option and find trade interest. There’s very little chance this one is bought out.

Brent Suter, LHP, Reds: $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout)

Suter came to his hometown Reds as advertised: middling strikeout rate, strong command, gobs of weak contact. He’s piled up 63 2/3 innings of relief work and notched a terrific 3.19 ERA. At a net $3.25MM, there’s no reason to decline this option.

Luke Weaver, RHP, Yankees: $2.5MM club option

There was plenty of understandable eye-rolling from Yankees fans when Weaver, who posted an ERA north of 6.00 in 2020, 2022 and 2023 signed a major league deal over the winter. It’s proven to be one of the best buys of the offseason for any team, however. The former top prospect has been a revelation in Aaron Boone’s bullpen, tossing 78 2/3 innings of 3.09 ERA ball with a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate. Weaver is throwing harder than ever and has leaned heavily on what was once a seldom-used cutter. This one is a slam dunk; there’s no way the Yankees would cut Weaver loose when he could be retained so affordably.

Devin Williams, RHP, Brewers: $10.5MM club option ($250K buyout)

Williams missed the first three-plus months of the season due to fractures in his lower back but has been excellent when healthy. In 17 1/3 frames, he’s put up a sparkling 1.53 ERA with a comical 43.8% strikeout rate against a 12.8% walk rate. The 29-year-old differs from the others on this list in that his club option season covers his final arbitration year. He agreed to the option year at a fixed price in order to avoid going to an arbitration hearing this past offseason. It’s at least possible that the Brewers could buy out the option and try to negotiate a slightly lower price. The $10.5MM price on his option only represents a 40% raise over this year’s salary, however. Even if the Brewers feel there’s a possibility for some marginal savings, they’d be so slight that it might not be worth the hassle and the potential for frustrating a key player like Williams.

Rule 5 Draft Update: September Edition

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A few months ago, MLBTR’s Steve Adams took an early look at the progress of last winter’s Rule 5 draftees. Seven of those players were on their teams’ active rosters, while two more were rehabbing injuries. Only one 2023 Rule 5 pick was returned to his original organization before Opening Day — and he went on to be the headlining piece in a key deadline trade. With most of the season in the books, let’s take a look at their performances in a larger sample.

A quick refresh for those unfamiliar with the process: the Rule 5 draft is a means of getting MLB opportunities to players who might be blocked with their current organization. Teams can draft certain players who are left off their original club’s 40-man roster. The drafting team needs to keep that player on the MLB roster or injured list for their entire first season. If they do so, they’d gain the player’s contractual rights permanently.

If the drafting team decides not to carry the player on the roster at any point during his rookie year, they need to place him on waivers. If he goes unclaimed, the player is offered back to his original organization — which does not need to carry him on either the MLB or 40-man rosters to take him back. A team can keep an injured Rule 5 pick on the major league IL, but they’d eventually need to carry him on the active roster for 90 days. If the player misses the entire season, the Rule 5 restriction carries over to the following year.

We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, so it’s safe to presume the six players who have held an active roster spot will survive the year. One player has spent the entire season on the injured list, so his Rule 5 status will roll over into next season if he sticks on the 40-man over the winter. Two others were returned earlier in the summer.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

The A’s had MLB’s worst record in 2023. That gave them the first pick in the Rule 5 draft. They used it on Spence, who had turned in a 4.47 ERA across 163 Triple-A innings in the Yankees’ system. New York’s 10th-round pick in 2019 has been a solid contributor on a more competitive Oakland pitching staff.

Spence opened the year in the bullpen. He worked 25 1/3 innings over his first 11 appearances, pitching to a 4.26 earned run average behind a decent 22.2% strikeout rate and huge ground-ball numbers (54.4%). The A’s moved Spence into their rotation in the middle of May. He has been similarly effective as a starter. Spence has worked to a 4.34 ERA over 21 starts, which is tied for the second-most on the team. His strikeout and grounder rates have each dropped a few points, but he’s still getting worm burners at a solid 48.5% clip. Spence doesn’t issue many free passes and has looked the part of a durable fourth/fifth starter. That’d be a fantastic outcome for a Rule 5 pick. He should at least get to compete for a season-opening rotation job next spring.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

Molina, 22, has stuck with a rebuilding Colorado team despite a rough debut season. He’s allowing more than six earned runs per nine through 56 innings out of the bullpen. The Venezuelan-born righty has fanned 15% of opposing hitters with a meager 7.2% swinging strike percentage. While pitching in Coors Field should be a challenge for any rookie, Molina has actually fared much worse away from altitude. He carries a 3.13 ERA in 31 2/3 home innings against a ghastly 11.10 mark over 24 1/3 frames on the road. Molina’s strikeout and walk profile isn’t good no matter where he has pitched, but he’s done a much better job keeping the ball on the ground in Denver.

Tough results aside, the Rox don’t have a pressing need to push Molina off the roster. Their place in the standings and overall lack of bullpen talent affords them rope to continue giving him a chance to develop. He throws reasonably hard (94.7 MPH average fastball speed) and managed decent results as a starting pitcher in the upper minors last year.

Nasim Nuñez, SS, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

A glove-first middle infielder, Nuñez has been the 26th man in Washington all season. Manager Dave Martinez has used him primarily as a late-game substitute. Nuñez has made 13 starts at shortstop and 41 appearances overall. He has 10 hits (nine singles and a double) in 51 plate appearances with eight walks and ten strikeouts. Nuñez has stolen six bases and laid down four sacrifice bunts. There’s minimal offensive upside but he has probably done enough to stick on the 40-man roster as a depth infielder.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez has had one of the better debut campaign in this year’s class. The 26-year-old righty carries a 3.13 ERA over 63 1/3 innings out of the St. Louis bullpen. Fernandez is narrowly behind Andrew Kittredge for the team lead in relief innings. He has quickly pitched his way into Oli Marmol’s circle of trust. Fernandez is fourth on the team — behind closer Ryan Helsley, Kittredge, and JoJo Romero — in average leverage index (measuring how impactful the situation is when a pitcher enters the game) in the second half.

It hasn’t been completely smooth sailing. Fernandez’s command has come and gone, and he had an atrocious August. He’s capable of missing bats and handling hitters from both sides of the plate, though, and he has posted a nice rebound this month. Even if his command could push him into a sixth or seventh inning role, this was a good pick.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected from Rangers via trade with Mets)

Losing Fernandez might’ve stung the Red Sox more had they not found a reliever who has been even better. Slaten owns a 3.16 earned run average through 51 1/3 innings with the peripherals to match. The New Mexico product has fanned more than a quarter of batters faced against a tidy 4.4% walk rate. He’s getting swinging strikes at a massive 14.4% clip while leading opponents to chase more than 35% of pitches outside the strike zone.

Aside from a six-week injured list stint because of elbow inflammation, Slaten couldn’t have made a much better first impression. He already looks the part of a late-game weapon and has been used as such by Alex Cora. With Kenley Jansen headed to free agency, Slaten could battle Liam Hendriks for the closer role next season. The Sox had one of the best Rule 5 picks in recent history when they snagged Garrett Whitlock a few years ago. It’s a new front office, but they look like they’ve had a similarly valuable hit on Slaten.

Currently On Major League Injured List

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek has occupied a low-leverage relief role for San Diego skipper Mike Shildt. The 27-year-old righty has allowed a 5.21 ERA across 46 2/3 innings. He’s getting ground-balls at a massive 55.9% clip but has a well below-average 18.5% strikeout rate. Kolek has done a nice job staying off barrels but hasn’t shown the bat-missing ability to push his way up the bullpen depth chart.

The Padres placed Kolek on the injured list just after the deadline due to elbow tendinitis. They moved him to the 60-day IL at the start of September. He’s eligible to return for San Diego’s playoff run, but his season could be over. Kolek surpassed 90 days on the active roster before the injury, so he won’t be subject to any restrictions next year.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees)

Coleman underwent Tommy John surgery while he was a member of the Yankees system early in 2023. Texas had hoped he’d return in the middle of the season, but GM Chris Young announced in May that wouldn’t happen. He has spent the whole season on the 60-day IL. Texas would need to put Coleman back on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason. If they carry him all winter, he’ll need to spend at least 90 days on the active roster whenever he’s healthy.

Returned to Original Organization

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (returned to Yankees)

Yankees minor leaguers went first and second in the draft. While Spence stuck around, the No. 2 pick didn’t last long in Kansas City. Sauer made the Opening Day roster and pitched 14 times in low-leverage relief. Opponents tagged him for 14 runs on 23 hits and 11 walks over 16 1/3 innings. The Royals couldn’t afford to stash him as a development flier in the bullpen, particularly once it became clear they had a real chance to make the playoffs.

Kansas City returned Sauer to the Yankees in late May. New York initially assigned him to Triple-A, but he was blitzed for 15 runs over just 8 1/3 innings in 10 appearances. New York demoted him to Double-A Somerset in early July. Sauer has found his footing there, pitching to a 2.63 ERA with 21 strikeouts and three walks over 17 outings. He’d qualify for minor league free agency this offseason if the Yanks don’t put him on the 40-man roster.

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (returned to Red Sox)

Drohan never pitched in the majors with the White Sox. The southpaw underwent a nerve decompression surgery in his throwing shoulder in February. He began the season on the 60-day injured list. Drohan was hit hard in a limited sample after beginning a rehab assignment, so Chicago decided not to activate him to the MLB roster. They returned him to Boston in June. Drohan made two Triple-A starts, spent some time on the development list, and is now back on the IL with continued shoulder issues. It’s unfortunate that he wasn’t healthy enough to get a legitimate MLB opportunity, but Drohan at least collected major league pay and service time for a couple months while on Chicago’s injured list.

Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B/3B, Guardians (returned to Diamondbacks)

De Los Santos was a surprising pick, as the power-hitting infielder was coming off a mediocre season (.254/.297/.431) in Double-A. He didn’t hit at all in Spring Training and Cleveland returned him to the Diamondbacks before Opening Day. He had a monster first half for the Snakes, blasting 28 home runs in fewer than 400 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Within a few months, De Los Santos went from unsuccessful Rule 5 pick to the centerpiece of the Marlins’ trade package for controllable high-leverage reliever A.J. Puk.

He has cooled off substantially since the deal. De Los Santos has another 11 homers in 44 games with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate, but he’s striking out a lot and getting on base at a meager .283 clip. It’s a difficult profile to pull off — particularly since he’s not considered a strong defender who might end up at first base — but the Marlins are likely to put him on the 40-man roster rather than expose him to the Rule 5 for a second straight year.

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt And The Qualifying Offer

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Heading into the 2024 season, the main question surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one of whether the Cardinals would be able to get an extension done. Interest in a new contract for Goldschmidt was reported as far back as December, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in January that extension talks could be tabled until early in the season. At the time, Goldschmidt was fresh off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 games. That didn’t come close to his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it was still well north of the league average and made Goldschmidt one of the more productive first basemen in the game.

Fast forward a few months, and the narrative has changed dramatically. Goldschmidt got out to the worst start of his career and seemed wholly unable to recover. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, May and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially excellent Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than an average hitter at the plate.

Even if one looked at the dip from his 2022 production to his 2023 output as the potential beginning of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a genuine surprise. Goldschmidt hadn’t simply had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% walk rate was nowhere near his career mark. Goldschmidt was still hitting the ball hard, but his contact was less frequent and much of that hard contact was coming in the form of hard grounders rather than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball rate in the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.

Since that point, things have begun to turn around. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive showing in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 since the calendar flipped to July — including a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Again, this isn’t a simple change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout rate from the season’s first three months is down to 23.5% since July 1 — and just 21% since Aug. 1.

Despite that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily become more selective at the plate. He’s still not walking nearly as often as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — nor is he chasing off the plate any less than he did in the season’s first three months. What he has done, however, is become much more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s typically patient approach led him to swing at just 61.4% of pitches in the strike zone from Opening Day through the end of June. Since then, he’s offered at 68.1% of such pitches. His overall swing rate through three months was at 46.2%, but he’s up to 49.4% in the three months since.

Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances end on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on those pitches. Of those 50, 26 came in the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, nearly 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch variety. It’s not a huge difference, but it lends credence to the fact that Goldschmidt has been more aggressive and been better off for it.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half looked like that of a player on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his results. The past two-plus months, however, tell another story. Goldschmidt may not be the MVP-level hitter he was just two seasons ago, but he’s been clearly above-average since July, including an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his past 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and may not recover if he maintains his more aggressive approach, but he’s hitting for average and power alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, starting this hot and then fading toward league-average, his down season likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.

As it stands, league-average is precisely where Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to an even 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is only 2% worse than average. An average-hitting first baseman isn’t generally a QO candidate, but if the Cardinals believe Goldschmidt can sustain his late surge, then there’s good reason to make an offer. Even if he accepts, a $21.2MM salary for a player whom they believe can continue in the vicinity of a .275/.315/.483 pace would be defensible. And if he walks, the Cards would of course be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip side, if Goldschmidt were to accept and revert to his first-half form, it’d be a clear misstep that sets the franchise back in 2025 as they look to return to contending.

It all comes down to how much the Cardinals believe in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and how much they’re willing to risk in the name of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months ago, Goldschmidt would’ve seemed like a no-brainer QO recipient. Three months ago, the decision would’ve seemed like a no-brainer — for the opposite reason. Now, the Cardinals will fall somewhere in the middle. Let’s open this up for a poll:

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