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What Should The Padres Do With Luis Arraez?

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One year removed from an offseason that saw the Padres radically alter the direction of their franchise by paring down on payroll and trading superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego once again finds itself in something of a financial pickle. The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected for a payroll just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax payroll of $244M, just above the first threshold.

That leaves the club likely looking to pare down payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they’ll surely be hoping to make additions to the team in spite of those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club parts ways with to reduce payroll will surely create new holes that need to be filled, leaving A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a bit of a pickle.

One avenue the Padres could use to reduce payroll this year runs through Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old back in May, and he generally played fairly well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his career. A contact savant who has managed to reduce his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time during his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been attractive enough to clubs that both the Marlins and Padres have given up significant packages to land him in recent years.

That preternatural knack for contact is held back by Arraez’s lackluster plate discipline causing his walk rate to decline steadily alongside his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power, however. Both of those flaws were on full display in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which both ranked third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While it’s possible that the thumb injury Arraez played through this year before undergoing surgery in October could have impacted him in the power department, but even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year landed just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster defense that largely limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why both the Twins and Marlins were willing to part ways with him on the trade market in recent years.

Could Arraez be dealt for the third year in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the simplest path to slashing a significant chunk of payroll for the Padres. Cease and King are both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, but neither reaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently penciled in for. Clearing that money off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to around $195MM. While San Diego would then need to replace Arraez at first base headed into next year, a number of bats at the position including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo figure to be available for a relative bargain this winter, meaning it should be fairly easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup and still come out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to land Arraez the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 offseason trade candidates list.

With that being said, a trade of Arraez isn’t the only option at the Padres’ disposal as they look for ways to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he would be open to an extension with the club this winter as he stares down his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have regularly worked out contracts that offer the club additional financial flexibility in the short-term and the player additional security in the long term in the past. That includes deals that comes together just before a player is due to reach free agency, such as the extensions they’ve offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.

If Arraez were amenable to it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres back-loading the deal to reduce his 2025 salary significantly and/or offering a lower AAV over a longer term in order to duck under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year deal worth $60MM would come with an AAV of just $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM of its expected luxury tax bill for 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM salaries over the rest of the contract, that would offer the Padres nearly $10MM in savings on their 2025 payroll as compared to his arbitration salary- a figure not that different than what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.

Those numbers are purely hypothetical, of course, and it’s certainly possible Arraez would not want to lock into a deal with such a relatively low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan of extending Arraez, either; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a major help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in a longer-term view it simply kicks the can down the road to next season when Arraez’s salary would shoot up by $6MM and could leave the club in the same financial jam they find themselves in now.

If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, attempt to extend him long-term, or simply play out the season and cut payroll elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!

What Should The Padres Do With Arraez?
Trade him and find a new first baseman. 47.90% (3,756 votes)
Extend him long-term to lessen the short-term financial burden. 32.96% (2,585 votes)
Play out his walk year and cut payroll elsewhere. 19.14% (1,501 votes)
Total Votes: 7,842

Five Non-Tendered Pitchers To Keep An Eye On This Winter

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Earlier this evening, we discussed five hitters from this year’s crop of non-tendered players who could be worth keeping an eye on this winter. While none of those players can realistically be expected to follow in the footsteps of Cody Bellinger and Kyle Schwarber, who both re-established themselves as All-Star caliber players following their respective non-tenders, it wouldn’t be so shocking to see a player from this year’s crop of non-tendered arms emerge as a notable player at some point in the future.

The best player to be non-tendered last winter was right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who served as the co-ace of the Brewers rotation alongside Corbin Burnes for years but wound up missing the entire 2024 season as he rehabbed from shoulder surgery. Kevin Gausman stands out as another notable hurler who’s been non-tendered in recent memory, and the veteran right-hander has gone on to have a fabulous career after breaking out at the age of 29. Even if no player from this crop of arms reaches the heights Gausman has, finding an impactful reliever or even a quality starter in the non-tender pile is hardly unheard of. Just this past year, both Spencer Turnbull and Tim Hill went from non-tendered in November to pitching for playoff contenders in 2024. Could anyone from this year’s group of non-tenders follow in their footsteps? Without further ado, let’s take a look at five pitchers who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2025 season in parentheses.

Kyle Finnegan (33)

Finnegan’s non-tender came as something of a shock, as the right-hander actually made his first career All-Star appearance this year. The righty has been a consistent, stable presence at the back of the Nationals’ bullpen throughout the rebuild, pitching to a 3.56 ERA (116 ERA+) overall with a 4.24 FIP and a 23.5% strikeout rate in his 290 1/3 innings of work. Finnegan’s spent much of his time with the club in the closer role as well, and has racked up 88 career saves in 109 opportunities for a conversion rate of 81%. Finnegan’s overall performance this year was roughly in line with his career norms, as he posted a 3.68 ERA and 4.24 FIP in 63 2/3 innings of work while racking up 38 saves in 43 opportunities this year.

Those frequent save opportunities over the years have increased Finnegan’s price tag in arbitration, and he was due to make $8.6MM in his final trip through the process this winter according to projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Aside from the high price tag, one other red flag that may have given the Nationals pause regarding their closer was how he wore down throughout the year. After posting an excellent 2.45 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 40 1/3 innings prior to the All-Star break, Finnegan’s final 24 appearances down the stretch saw him surrender a 5.79 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and a strikeout rate of just 16.4%. Despite that potential sign of trouble, though, Finnegan offers late-inning experience, consistent results, and an upper-90s fastball that should attract plenty of attention this winter.

Hoby Milner (34)

Left-handed relief options are always in demand, and Milner figures to receive attention on the free agent market as a southpaw with previous success in the majors if nothing else, even after the Brewers opted to non-tender him rather than pay his projected salary of $2.7MM for the 2025 season. That’s certainly a defensible decision given Milwaukee’s tight budget and Milner’s poor results this year. In 64 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers this year, Milner surrendered an ugly 4.73 ERA that was 11% worse than league average by measure of ERA+. With a heater that fails to break 90 mph, Milner hardly garners attention for his stuff, as well.

That’s not to say he couldn’t be a valuable contributor to a club’s bullpen, however. Rough as Milner’s 2024 campaign was, the underlying numbers were actually far kinder to the southpaw: He struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents while walking just 5.2%, and virtually every advanced metric was extremely bullish on the lefty’s performance this year as he posted a 3.14 FIP, a 3.08 SIERA, and a 3.15 in both xERA and xFIP. Milner also enjoyed the highest groundball rate of his career (51.9%), and may have been victimized by a shockingly low strand rate of just 58.1%. Looking at the three years Milner spent as a fixture of the Milwaukee bullpen from 2022 to 2024 paints the picture of a steady left-handed reliever who could improve plenty of bullpens around the league: in 193 2/3 innings during that time, he posted a 3.44 ERA with a 3.14 FIP overall. That track record should garner major league offers this winter, even if his lackluster season this past year may limit his earning potential.

Cal Quantrill (30)

Quantrill lands on this list by virtue of being the best bet among all non-tender candidates to make 30 big league starts in 2025. The right-hander found himself moved out of his previous organization in advance of the non-tender deadline for the second consecutive winter last week. After being designated for assignment by the Guardians in the days leading up to the deadline last year, the Rockies swung a trade to add him to their rotation. That experiment went fairly well, as Quantrill pitched to a solid if unspectacular 4.98 ERA (93 ERA+) with a 5.32 FIP. Ugly as those numbers look on paper, given the realities of pitching in Coors Field they’re generally consistent with Quantrill’s history as a roughly league average fifth starter.

The right-hander enjoyed a breakout campaign during the 2020 season that was split between Cleveland and San Diego, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 32 innings while working out of the bullpen. He was used as a swing man in Cleveland the following year, and continued to dominate as he posted a 2.89 ERA (despite a pedestrian 4.07 FIP) in 149 2/3 innings of work in 2021. From 2022 onwards, he settled in as a permanent fixture of the rotation and has been a consistently average back-of-the-rotation arm with a 4.35 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.68 FIP in 80 starts. Averaging more than 26 starts per year with a roughly league average ERA should be enough to earn Quantrill a look from a rotation-needy team this year, though it’s also possible a team could have interest in seeing if he can post stronger numbers out of the bullpen like he did earlier in his career.

Jordan Romano (32)

Romano was perhaps the non-tendered that garnered the most attention in the aftermath of last week’s non-tender deadline. A two-time All-Star, Romano has been the Blue Jays’ closer throughout the majority of their recent competitive window. From 2020 to 2023, the right-hander spun an incredible 2.29 ERA in 200 2/3 innings of work with a 30.8% strikeout rate and a 3.13 FIP. Among relievers with at least 160 innings of work during that time, Romano ranked third by ERA behind only Devin Williams and Emmanuel Clase. Unfortunately, the wheels came off completely for the righty in 2024 as he was shelled for 10 runs in 13 2/3 innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery that wound up ending his season.

Terrible as Romano’s 2024 campaign was, it’s hard to imagine him not generating significant interest this winter. The right-hander was projected for a $7.75MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this winter, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him land a similar deal in free agency if multiple clubs see him as a potential buy-low solution in the ninth inning given his strong numbers and 105 career saves in 113 chances (89% conversation rate). Romano’s market naturally still figures to be hampered at least to some extent by not just his struggles in 2024 but also questions surrounding his health. While he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training and have a normal offseason following his surgery this summer, some level of trepidation from clubs is to be expected after any elbow procedure.

Patrick Sandoval (28)

Sandoval stands as both the youngest player on this list and the one most likely to find success as a mid-rotation starter or better in the big leagues at some point in the future. The left-hander was traded from the Astros to the Angels as the return for catcher Martin Maldonado back in 2018, and the southpaw was in the big leagues the following year. While it took some time for Sandoval to get settled into the majors, he found success in a half season of work out of the rotation in 2021 and managed to build upon that with a breakout season the following year. In 2022, Sandoval pitched to an excellent 2.91 ERA with a 3.09 FIP in 148 2/3 innings of work. He struck out 23.7% of opponents and combined that with an excellent 47.4% grounder rate.

Unfortunately, Sandoval’s performance has slipped since then. 2023 was a step backwards for the lefty, as he posted a solid but relatively pedestrian 4.11 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.18 FIP in 144 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate dropped to just 19.3% that year, while his walk rate skyrocketed to 11.3%. Things took a turn for the worse this year, as he was shelled to the tune of a 5.08 ERA across 16 starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery back in June. That will leave him out of action until at least the second half of 2025, and that layoff combined with Sandoval’s recent lackluster performance made the Halos’ decision to part ways with him somewhat unsurprising. Even so, with Sandoval not scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2026 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a club snap the lefty up on a two-year deal and be glad he did if he can revert to something closer to his 2022 form once he’s back on the mound.

Five Non-Tendered Hitters To Keep An Eye On This Winter

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Previous seasons have seen a number of high-profile players wind up non-tendered, including Brandon Woodruff last winter and Cody Bellinger the year before that. Kyle Schwarber and Kevin Gausman are among a handful of other star players who have found themselves non-tendered for one reason or another during their careers, and all except Woodruff (who is expected to return to the mound next year after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery) have gone on to enjoy big league success following their respective non-tenders.

While players of that caliber reaching free agency by way of a non-tender are extremely rare, plenty of players find themselves cut loose early by their clubs only to make an impact elsewhere down the line, whether as a regular in the lineup or rotation or simply as a solid contributor off the bench or out of the bullpen. With the majority of teams in the game signalling on some level or other that they hope to compete in 2025, clubs who get outbid in free agency or on the trade market this winter will surely be incentivized to try and uncover a diamond in the rough this winter as they hunt for offensive upgrades. Let’s take a look at five hitters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2025 season in parentheses.

Austin Hays (29)

Hays is perhaps the most surprising non-tender on this list, as he was an All-Star for the Orioles just last year and has been a reliable league-average bat capable of playing all three outfield spots throughout his career. That steady production is what convinced the Phillies to trade Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache to the Orioles in order to acquire him over the summer. While he didn’t live up to those expectations in 22 games with Philadelphia down the stretch, his lackluster .256/.275/.397 slash line during that time comes with a massive caveat: Hays spent the second half of the year battling through a kidney infection that seriously hampered his ability to play, as was discussed at length in a recent article from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Given the serious illness that afflicted Hays during his time as a Phillie, it seems prudent to examine his free agency in the context of his career overall. By that metric, the outfielder would be a valuable addition to virtually any outfield mix in the big leagues. Over his three seasons as a full-time player with the Orioles from 2021 to 2023, Hays slashed a solid .261/.313/.439 (108 wRC+) in 420 games for Baltimore. During that time, he generated 6.1 fWAR, a number that placed him ahead of a number of solid regulars during that time such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Orioles teammate Anthony Santander. What’s more, Hays has continued to put up excellent numbers against left-handed pitching even during this year’s illness-plagued season that saw his role reduced to more of a part-time player: in 49 games against lefties this year, he hit an excellent .354/.407/.537, even better than his career line of .277/.331/.469 against southpaws. If Hays can rebound to the form he showed from 2021 to 2023, he could be a solid regular for a team with a vacancy in the corner outfield, especially one that struggles against left-handed pitching.

Ramon Laureano (30)

Early in his career, Laureano appeared to be a key piece of the Athletics’ core alongside Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Sean Manaea, and Frankie Montas. Over his first two seasons in the big leagues, Laureano hit a phenomenal .288/.345/.508 (128 wRC+) in a combined 657 trips to the plate while playing solid defense in right field. After that, however, Laureano’s career was thrown off course by three shortened seasons: the 60-game shortened campaign in 2020 and the 2021 and ’22 campaigns that were truncated for Laureano by an 80-game PED suspension. Across those three seasons, Laureano hit just .225/.310/.400 with a wRC+ of 103 and noticeably less impressive defense in the field. That lackluster production continued throughout the 2023 season, as he posted a 90 wRC+ overall between stints with the A’s and in Cleveland. His second season with the Guardians got off to an atrocious start in 2024, as he hit just .143 in 31 games before the club cut bait.

If that’s where Laureano’s story for the 2024 season ended, he’d be a fairly unremarkable name relegated to hoping for a minor league deal this winter. That’s not the case, however, because he joined the Braves lineup to fill in for Ronald Acuna Jr. after the reigning MVP suffered a torn ACL. He looked like the hitter he was earlier in his career during his time with Atlanta, hitting an excellent .296/.327/.505 (129 wRC+) in a part-time role that saw him collect 226 plate appearances across 67 games. While that performance wasn’t enough to convince the Braves to bring him back in spite of Acuna’s pending return early next year, plenty of teams could benefit from a solidly above average corner outfielder who crushes lefties (.305/.343/.526 in 102 PA this year) and puts up decent enough numbers against righties to be a passable regular.

Brendan Rodgers (28)

The youngest player on this list, Rodgers seemed to be coming into his own as a player during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. As the primary second baseman for the Rockies, Rodgers hit a respectable .274/.326/.434 (95 wRC+) while improving enough on defense to win the Gold Glove award at the position in 2022. Unfortunately, what should have been an opportunity to follow up on that strong performance was cut short when he underwent shoulder surgery in March of 2023, which left him sidelined until the end of July. He received regular playing time with Colorado upon returning, but didn’t look quite as good as he had previously. In 181 games since returning, he’s hit just .265/.314/.402 (85 wRC+). His defense has also fallen from the Gold Glove-caliber showing he flashed in 2022, with him posting relatively average defense by the metrics over the past two seasons.

While the red flags in Rodgers’s profile post-surgery are obvious, his youth, pedigree as a former top-20 prospect in the sport, and the thin infield market this winter seem likely to earn him some real consideration on the market. After all, if getting another year removed from his shoulder injury can help him rediscover the form he flashed in 2022, it’s easy to imagine him posting a strong season as a regular second baseman for a team without a clear answer at the position such as the Mariners, Yankees, or Giants. Unlike the outfielders on this list, Rodgers’s competition on the infield market is similarly flawed, with only a handful of players likely to land multi-year deals.

Josh Rojas (31)

Rojas was a somewhat surprising non-tendered, given his status as one of the Mariners’ better internal infield options headed into 2025. Evidently, the club wasn’t willing to pay a projected $4.3MM salary for his services next year after an up-and-down 2024 campaign that saw him slash a decent .204/.304/.336 (91 wRC+) overall. That slash line doesn’t tell the whole story, however, as Rojas hit just .192/.273/.301 (72 wRC+) after all the All-Star break this year. That’s an untenable slash line for an everyday player, particularly given the fact that Rojas is a rather pedestrian defender at both second and third base.

With that being said, Rojas figures to be benefit from a lackluster infield market just as Rodgers does. Over the past four seasons, Rojas has been a roughly league average hitter (97 wRC+) with the Diamondbacks and Mariners. It’s also worth noting that he stands out as a solid candidate for a platoon role; left-handed hitting infielders are somewhat scarce, and Rojas made the most of his platoon advantage by posting an above-average 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year. With a lefty-mashing platoon partner or in a bench role that helps to limit his exposure to same-handed pitching, it’s easy to imagine Rojas enjoying a solid season in 2025. Another notable factor in Rojas’s free agency should be that he figures to remain arbitration-eligible next winter, meaning his next club could retain him for a second season if the first one goes well.

Mike Tauchman (34)

Tauchman is the oldest player on the list, but he’s noteworthy for being the only player here to post an above-average wRC+ in each of the past two seasons. After a brief sojourn to South Korea to play in the KBO during 2022, Tauchman latched on with the Cubs and excelled in a fourth outfielder role with the club. In 217 games with Chicago over the past two years, he’s slashed .250/.360/.372 with a wRC+ of 110 and an excellent 13.7% walk rate that even earned him a stint as the club’s regular leadoff hitter. Tauchman found himself non-tendered despite that solid production thanks in large part to his shrinking role with the club in the second half last year; the Cubs have Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong all penciled into the lineup for regular playing time, and youngsters like Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara on the 40-man roster as depth options.

That made Tauchman expendable to Chicago, but he should be an interesting free agent option for a team in need of a steady, high-OBP veteran presence in their outfield mix. While he’s a pedestrian defender at all three outfield spots, Tauchman’s ability to play a passable center field should further add to his value, and like Rojas he comes with an additional season of team control after 2025 should the club that signs him have interest in his services the following year. Just 11 clubs posted a 110 wRC+ of higher in the outfield in 2024, and 15 clubs got below-average offensive production on the grass overall, meaning Tauchman could be a relatively inexpensive fit for a number of clubs in need of outfield help this winter.

Free Agent Profile: Max Kepler

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At the start of the offseason, MLBTR took a look at the Top 50 Free Agents for this offseason. There were a handful of players that we considered for the list but who just missed, getting relegated to the Honorable Mentions section. One of those was Max Kepler.

Kepler, 32 in February, is a guy who does a lot of things well but doesn’t really stand out in any one particular area. On offense, he has a bit of pop but not too much. He did hit 36 home runs in 2019, but in hindsight, he may have been one of the beneficiaries of the juiced ball season. His career high apart from that is 24. His strikeout rate usually finishes somewhere in the vicinity of 20%, with a career rate of 18.6%. League average is usually in the 22-23% range in this era of baseball. His 9.7% walk rate is also a bit better than par, which is often 8-9%.

Put that all together and Kepler has a .237/.318/.429 career batting line and 102 wRC+, indicating he’s been 2% better than league average overall. He’s been a bit better over the past six seasons, with a .240/.320/.436 line and 107 wRC+. He could perhaps get those numbers up if shielded from lefties more often, as he has hit .243/.326/.452 against righties in his career for a 111 wRC+, compared to a .221/.292/.363 line and 78 wRC+ against lefties.

Defensively, his contributions have been quite strong. In over 7,000 right field innings, he has accrued 48 Defensive Runs Saved and 57 Outs Above Average. From 2016 to the present, he’s actually the MLB leader in Outs Above Average in right field with 57, just ahead of Mookie Betts and his 54. DRS likes Betts far more, giving him 129 for that same time frame, but Kepler is fourth behind Betts, Aaron Judge and Jason Heyward.

Kepler also has over 1,000 innings in center field with positive ratings there as well. No club is going to sign him as a primary center fielder now, given his age and that he hasn’t played there since 2022, but perhaps some teams would consider him an emergency option there.

These various factors combine to make a guy who doesn’t overwhelm but also rarely disappoints. FanGraphs has never given him more than 3.9 wins above replacement in a season, which was his aforementioned 36-homer season. Otherwise, his career high is 2.8 fWAR. But he has nine straight seasons of being worth at least 1.0 fWAR, with seven of those 1.5 or higher, six worth at least 1.8 and five worth at least 2 wins.

What’s working against Kepler is that he just wrapped up a poor walk year. His missed time due to issues in both of his knees, getting into just 105 games and hitting only eight home runs. His 5.5% walk rate was a career worst by a few percentage points. His still racked up four OAA but DRS had him at exactly league average. Due to that rough platform, the MLBTR staff felt Kepler would be limited to a one-year deal in the $6-10MM range.

What could work for Kepler is that the market isn’t overflowing with his combination of skills. Looking at the lefty-swinging free agents, Juan Soto is obviously miles above the field. Switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar are both coming off good years at the plate but both are considered poor defenders. Joc Pederson is a lefty who crushes the ball but he is also bad in the field and was limited strictly to designated hitter duties in 2024. Hyeseong Kim is expected to be a light-hitting utility guy at the MLB level. Michael Conforto is perhaps the closest free agent to Kepler on the market, though slightly inverted. Conforto’s offense and defense have both been close to league average in recent years, but with his bat slightly more attractive than his glove.

For clubs looking for a lefty-swinger who can play the field without destroying the lineup, there aren’t too many options. On top of that, Kepler shouldn’t cost too much. His 2024 was rough but the year prior saw him hit 24 home runs and slash .260/.332/.484 for a 123 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. He could perhaps appeal to contenders or rebuilding clubs that would hope for him to bounce back and turn himself into a trade candidate. Teams like the Mets, Mariners, Blue Jays, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Marlins and others are possible landing spots.

MLB Mailbag: Arenado, Bellinger, Phillies, Reds, A’s, Mariners, Brewers, More

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It's time for another edition of the weekly MLB Mailbag here at MLBTR. I'm pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes this week.

We received more questions than usual, with a heavy focus on some recent rumors/reporting on big-name NL Central players like Nolan Arenado and Cody Bellinger. We'll address that, plus questions on the Phillies' options, the Reds' outlook following a few early moves, the recent wave of non-tendered players, how the A's can actually spend some money and more.

Onto the questions!

Mark asks:

Should the Cardinals not find a trade partner for Nolan Arenado (or one that he agrees to), how do they sort out the logjam?  Gorman, Donovan, Saggese--and eventually Wetherholt--at 2B/3B, and 1B/DH is kind of occupied now with Contreras and Burleson.  Seems like if they plan to let the younger guys play, tough to see how there is enough playing time to go around.

Eldon asks:

The Yankees are rumored to have interest in Nolan Arenado. Wouldn't this be too much like the Donaldson fiasco of just a very short time ago Hopefully Steinbrenner and/or Cashman wouldn't dare do that again...would they? An aging player with a big contract who seems to be in decline? Why?

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What Would It Take To Extend Tarik Skubal?

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The Tigers recently attempted to extend reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, according to a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, but Petzold suggests the offer from Detroit was not competitive and the sides ultimately did not come close to hammering out a deal. It’s certainly understandable that Detroit would have interest in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re just beginning to enter their competitive window and have just two years of team control over the southpaw remaining before he can depart in free agency. With that being said, Skubal is a client of Scott Boras, who typically encourages his players to test free agency to maximize value, and the lefty certainly has plenty of leverage coming off a 2024 season that saw him win the AL Triple Crown and become the club’s first Cy Young award winner since Max Scherzer in 2013.

That’s not to say an extension is necessarily impossible, however. A handful of high-profile Boras clients, including Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts, have previously signed extensions with their clubs prior to testing free agency. And there’s certainly precedent for Cy Young-caliber hurlers signing extensions, as well. The Tigers famously signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to two extensions across his 13 years in Detroit, the first being a five-year, $80MM contract that bought out his final two arbitration years and three free agent years prior to the 2010 season, and the second being a five-year deal signed prior to the 2013 season that covered the 2015-19 seasons and guaranteed Verlander an additional $140MM.

Verlander’s first contract stands as a fairly straightforward comparison point to Skubal given that the lefty is also two years away from free agency and Verlander had just finished third in AL Cy Young award voting prior to the deal being signed. However, that deal is a decade and a half old at this point and prices around the league have risen considerably in the ensuing years. Verlander’s second extension may serve as a more accurate point of comparison when discussing the possibility of another Cy Young winner extending his stay with the Tigers, given the high-end deals players such as Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) have signed over the past decade.

Perhaps the best comparison for Skubal’s situation can be found in right-hander Jacob deGrom, who inked an extension with the Mets prior to the 2019 season that covered the 2020-23 seasons. The deal guaranteed him $120.5MM in new money and included a club option for 2024 that could have raised the total guarantee to $153MM over five years. More importantly, the deal afforded deGrom the opportunity to opt out following the 2022 season. That deal was inked in a very similar situation to the one Skubal and the Tigers find themselves in now; deGrom was just two years from free agency and had secured his first career Cy Young award on the heels of an otherworldly season that saw him post a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 innings of work.

That season was even more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom at the time had a much less checkered injury history than Skubal currently does. While those factors may suggest that deGrom’s deal ought to be a target for the lefty to shoot for, he has one major factor on his side that could substantially boost his earning power beyond even that of deGrom: age. Skubal just turned 28 last week, but deGrom was nearly three years older than Skubal during his Cy Young-winning age-30 season back in 2018. In other words, Skubal is not only younger now than deGrom was at the time of his extension, but he’ll actually still be younger than deGrom was at the time of the deal when he’s slated to reach free agency following the 2026 season.

Being able to market an age-30 season in free agency is a huge boost to a player’s overall value on the open market, particularly for pitchers who teams are often hesitant to guarantee lengthy deals for. Cole’s massive nine-year deal with the Yankees came prior to his age-29 season, suggesting that a $300MM payday could be a stretch for Skubal, but Strasburg was a year older than Skubal will be upon reaching free agency when he secured his $245MM contract on the open market and even had a similarly checkered injury history to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal wound up being among the worst contracts in recent memory due to subsequent injury woes, which could make clubs skeptical of replicating it, but it’s easy to imagine Skubal landing a deal north of $200MM should he reach free agency during the 2026-27 offseason.

That’s a hefty price tag for the Tigers to contend with, but it’s certainly feasible they could put a compelling offer on the table. After all, the club has just two players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez and Colt Keith. Keith won’t make more than $5.3MM annually until and unless his club option for the 2030 season is picked up, while Baez’s $23.3MM AAV will drop off the books following the 2027 season. For a club that was able to afford hefty annual salaries to both Verlander and Miguel Cabrera a decade ago, it should be fairly manageable to commit an AAV in the $25-30MM range to Skubal.

Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8MM salary via arbitration this year, and would presumably be in line for a healthy raise next winter as well. If the Tigers were willing to guarantee Skubal a combined $25MM for his final two trips through arbitration, then perhaps a seven-year, $175MM extension could make sense for both sides. Such a deal would guarantee Skubal a total payday through his age-34 season that approaches the $200MM guarantee he could hope to land in free agency, while allowing the Tigers to lock up their ace through his prime years. It’s also possible that Skubal could take a page out of deGrom’s playbook and sacrifice some total guarantee in order to get a second bite at the apple in the form of an opt-out, perhaps following his age-32 season in 2029.

The Best Fits For Juan Soto

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Last offseason, MLBTR took extensive looks at how the market for each of the top free agents might shake out, providing those pieces to our Front Office subscribers. We're doing the same this winter, kicking things off with a look at the likely bidders for Juan Soto and where each stands with regard to payroll and the luxury tax, among other aspects that ought to be considered.

At this point, there's little need to chronicle Soto's greatness to this point in his career. In our Top 50 Free Agent rankings, I penned over 1000 words on Soto alone, outlining just some of the reasons he's rightly referred to as a "generational" talent (a term that perhaps is used a bit too cavalierly these days). To borrow a couple excerpts from that:

"It’s rare for a player to even make his big league debut at 19, let alone to immediately break out as a star. That’s precisely what Soto did, however, belting an opposite-field home run off Chad Green in his second big league plate appearance. One home run doesn’t make anyone a star, of course, but Soto was completely unfazed by MLB pitching and went on to post a .292/.406/.517 batting line and swat 22 homers all before turning 20. In the entire history of the game, no one as young as Soto has turned in a season that good. Soto’s 142 OPS+ in his rookie season is the best in MLB history (min. 300 plate appearances). Soto’s debut harkened back to Hall of Famer Mel Ott’s jaw-dropping 19-year-old rookie season with the New York Giants exactly 90 years prior."

That, of course, is just looking at his rookie year. Soto's only gotten better since then, recording more walks than strikeouts in five consecutive seasons. He belted a career-high 41 homers this past season while slashing .288/.419/.569. By measure of wRC+, he was 80% better than league average at the plate (and somehow still only his team's second-best hitter; we see you, Aaron Judge). Yet Soto and all of his career accolades are hitting the open market at just 26 years of age. Judge, by comparison, played his first full season at age 25. He was entering his age-31 season in free agency. Shohei Ohtani was entering his age-29 campaign. Free agents rarely hit the market this young, and it's feasible we haven't even seen the best version of Soto yet.

When it comes to contract expectations, throw precedent and norms out the window. If you're not willing to put down at least a decade -- and likely 12, 13, 14 or even 15 years -- you're not likely to get a seat at the table. (Though it's fun to at least think of a clean-payroll club offering an extreme AAV on a shorter-term deal with an opt-out; six years, $450MM anyone?)

We know most of the teams that have already met with Soto by now, but let's take a look at each and try to identify which clubs might emerge as the ever-popular "mystery team" based on their payroll, tax status, and other factors.

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2024 Non-Tender Candidates

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The non-tender deadline is tomorrow evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Teams have already made a few cuts among that group — either at the beginning of the offseason when players returned from the injured list or prior to Tuesday’s deadline to keep prospects out of the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs, for instance, have already taken Adbert Alzolay and Patrick Wisdom off the 40-man roster and could officially non-tender them tomorrow.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (Scott Kingery and Seth Brown have already signed deals of that ilk.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.

As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.

At least a few of these players will likely be traded, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. MLBTR covered a few candidates for that kind of deal in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Have avoided arbitration since the list was published

Free Agent Faceoff: Max Scherzer/Walker Buehler

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Three years ago today, the results of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Young award were announced. The top of the ballot featured a somewhat controversial battle between the elite rate production of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the volume offered by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes ultimately taking home the trophy. Finishing just below them in balloting, however, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.

Flash forward three years, and things have gone quite well for the first- and second-place finishers for that year’s Cy Young in the NL. Burnes enters this winter as the consensus top free agent pitcher available and could be in line for a guarantee that reaches $200MM, while Wheeler opted against returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this year and now stands as a Cy Young finalist once again alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are also headed into free agency this winter, although neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure guarantee like those of Burnes and Wheeler.

Instead, both hurlers figure to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation talents after facing adversity in recent years. Scherzer and Buehler landed the 33rd and 37th spots on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list this winter, as we predicted one-year deals worth $16MM and $15MM respectively for each player. While both hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and could wind up signing similar contracts this winter, the pair took different paths to get to this point over recent years and their unique challenges and assets could inform the preferences of prospective suitors.

Scherzer’s struggles in recent seasons have been almost entirely about health rather than performance. After turning in 11 utterly dominant starts for the Dodgers down the stretch following a trade from the Nationals at that summer’s trade deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season came to an abrupt end when he was forced out of Game 2 of the NLCS due to a dead arm after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch again for L.A. in that series and ultimately departed the club on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves in the series.

After landing with the Mets on a three-year guarantee worth $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 campaign for New York but was limited to just 23 starts due to oblique issues. It was the fewest starts he had made in a full season during his career, and his 145 1/3 innings of work, while hardly out of the ordinary for a starter in recent years, was similarly a full-season career low. The right-hander bounced back in terms of volume in 2023, making 27 starts for the Mets and Rangers throughout the regular season, but suffered on the performance front as he posted a somewhat middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of work. Those results improved significantly (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his trade to Texas, but much like 2021 Scherzer struggled with injuries late in the season and was hampered during the playoffs, ultimately pitching just 9 2/3 innings total during the club’s championship run.

While Scherzer’s declining volume and production were somewhat concerning, the future Hall of Famer was still clearly among the top pitchers in the sport even as he began to struggle with injury. Over those aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer combined for 50 starts where he posted an excellent 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate in 298 innings of work. That performance was good for 6.7 fWAR, good for 23rd among all starters across those two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.

Unfortunately for the veteran, however, things took a substantial turn for the worse in 2024 as he suffered from the first truly injury-plagued season of his career. After undergoing back surgery last offseason, Scherzer’s was expected to miss at least the first couple of months of action. That timetable was further delayed by nerve issues, and by the time shoulder fatigue brought his season to an early end in September he had made just nine total starts this season. Those nine starts saw Scherzer pitch effectively, though not close to the ace-level production he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of work this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, striking out 22.6% of opponents faced while walking just 5.6%.

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s certainly easy to imagine Scherzer providing high quality production whenever he’s on the field, given the league average results he posted while fighting through injury this year and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Young award. With that being said, the veteran will celebrate his 41st birthday in July of 2025, and his increasingly detrimental injury woes in recent years leave plenty of questions about just how many starts Scherzer can be counted on for in 2025, particularly in the postseason given the injury questions he faced in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.

By contrast, Buehler comes with far fewer questions regarding his overall health. That’s to be expected from a player who is a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s not to say Buehler hasn’t had health issues of his own, of course, as Buehler had nearly two full calendar years of his career wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on May 7 of this year after having last pitched in a major league game on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few injury woes throughout his career aside from his two career elbow surgeries, with a bout of hip inflammation this year and a rib injury back in 2018 representing the only other significant injuries of his big league career.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgery was actually the second of Buehler’s pitching career. It’s not uncommon for players to struggle after going under the knife a second time, though some pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the procedure twice and gone on to be effective for years following their second surgery. Buehler also averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging sign as it’s right in line with his average prior to going under the knife.

That’s not to say Buehler lacks question marks, however. The right-hander’s 2024 season was nothing short of atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that were both more than 30% worse than league average by ERA- and FIP-, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were both the worst marks of his career since he became a full time player in 2018. While Buehler’s solid 15 innings of work during the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) offer some reason for optimism, particularly as he struck out a third of his opponents in the NLCS and World Series, his atrocious regular season results are difficult to ignore. While Scherzer seems to be a reasonable bet to produce when healthy enough to take the mound, Buehler will need to improve his overall production substantially to be an even league average starter next year even as he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late in the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.

If your team was in the market for a bounce-back starter this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Scherzer’s strong results and lengthy track record of success when healthy despite his age and injury questions, or would you prefer Buehler’s youth and upside despite his brutal results in 2024?

Which Starter Would You Rather Have For 2025?
Walker Buehler 86.96% (4,810 votes)
Max Scherzer 13.04% (721 votes)
Total Votes: 5,531

The Yankees’ Wave Of Former Top Prospects

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Prospects in baseball aren't a sure thing, but they're fun to dream on. As fans, pundits and onlookers of all varieties -- heck, even for team employees -- it's easy to get swept up in what might eventually be. There's nothing more alluring than the idea of a potential star-caliber player, or even a solid regular, earning at or close to the league minimum with six or even seven years of club control ahead of them. The more players of this ilk on which a team can successfully convert, the more space there is to be aggressive in free agency, in extending homegrown talent and in acquiring players on notable salary in trades.

The flip side of that equation, however, lies in the moves teams sometimes decline to make. Trades are passed on and free agents looked over, as that promise of a better tomorrow looms on the horizon. "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or "TINSTAAPP") is a common idiom in baseball circles. For every Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio, there are ten others whose names fall to the wayside and eventually change hands via a minor trade/claim or pass through waivers entirely. Prospects are fun to dream on ... but more often than not, they're just that: a dream.

Every team is susceptible to this. Look up and down the league and you'll probably find at least one former top prospect among each club's crop of minor league free agents this offseason, along with several more who cleared waivers and were assigned to their clubs' top affiliate in hopes they reestablish something.

This isn't intended to be a knock on the Yankees in particular. Again, it's a common problem. But the Yankees currently have four out-of-options players who've yet to establish themselves and who have ranked among their top 10 prospects in the organization within the past three years. None has established himself, and now each is facing an uncertain future, particularly with the looming Nov. 19 deadline to protect players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have five open 40-man spots at the moment, so perhaps they don't feel a huge push to free up some space, but those vacancies will be filled by prospects, free agent signings and trade acquisitions -- all beginning within the next few days. Someone's going to have to get pushed off eventually.

Again, other clubs have this issue every year. But in 2024 specifically, there's no club with quite as many out-of-options players on the roster bubble as the Yankees.

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