In a chat today with readers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals will approach first baseman Paul Goldschmidt at some point this offseason with the hope of discussing a contract extension. He says the club prefers to get a deal done before the start of the season but that they will leave the door open for in-season discussions. He adds that neither side expects the conversation to be contentious and the club believes they can extend him through the remainder of his career.
Goldschmidt, 36, has just one year remaining on his contract, an extension he signed with the club in 2019. He will make a salary of $22MM in 2024 and will also get two signing bonus payments of $2.25MM each, one in January and one in July, leaving $26.5MM left to be paid out.
Though he is now into his mid-30s, he has continued to be a key part of the club, winning National League Most Valuable Players honors just last year. His 2023 was unquestionable a drop-off, but that says more about his excellent MVP campaign than anything. Here in 2023, he hit 25 home runs and drew walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances. His .268/.363/.447 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 122, a far cry from his 176 in 2022, but that still indicates he was 22% better than league average. He also stole 11 bases and was got strong marks for his glovework, leading to a tally of 3.7 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 3.4 from Baseball Reference.
Given that he continues to be a valuable member of the club, it’s understandable why the Cards would want to keep him around. They have generally not been shy about keeping their legendary players around, with Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright a couple of recent examples of players who were continually re-signed through the ends of their respective careers. Albert Pujols was away from the club for a while but returned for a farewell tour in St. Louis before hanging up his cleats.
That points to the club having strong relationships with its star players, with Nolan Arenado having also foregone an opt-out opportunity that many felt was in his best financial interest. If the same is true for Goldschmidt, it’s possible he could follow down the legendary path and stick with the club through the end of his career.
The spring is a common time for extensions, as clubs generally like to use the winter months to focus on building the roster by signing free agents and making trades, leaving discussions with in-house players for after those other matters are settled. The Cards came into this offseason with plenty to do, having already remade their rotation by signing Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, in addition to trading outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox. They still want to add to their bullpen and perhaps continue trading from their group of position players, so the talks with Goldschmidt aren’t the priority at this exact moment.
But as mentioned, they do hope to get it done before the season starts, so it will be something that could develop in the New Year or during Spring Training. It’s not terribly uncommon for a veteran to sign a one-year extension to stick around, such as the one Charlie Blackmon and the Rockies recently agreed to or the one-year deals Molina signed with the Cards for 2021 and 2022. But since Goldschmidt continues to produce at such a high level, he may be able to ask for a multi-year deal.
There’s not much precedent for a position player being extended this late in their careers, but there are some recent examples. In August of 2021, Brandon Crawford and the Giants signed a two-year, $32MM deal to cover his age-35 and age-36 seasons. Going a bit further back, Adrian Beltre signed a two-year, $36MM with the Rangers for his age-38 and age-39 seasons. In terms of free agent comparisons, Jose Abreu got a three-year, $58.5MM deal from the Astros going into his age-36 season. Prior to 2021, Justin Turner signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Dodgers that began with his age-36 campaign. After that deal expired, he was able to get a two years and $21MM plus an opt-out from the Red Sox for his age-38 season.
The financials will be an interesting thing for the Cardinals to balance. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll at $175MM while they already have $103MM committed for 2025, thanks to hefty deals for Arenado, Gray, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras and Steven Matz. Adding Goldschmidt will probably put them over $120MM for just six players.
But given their past preference for keeping their marquee players around as long as they keep playing, perhaps they are willing to walk that tightrope to keep Goldy around for a few more years.
Four years, $200 million. $196 million deferred over the next 150 years.
Contracts are now pension plans
Seems absolutely reasonable to me.
Completely unreasonable.
$198-mil deferred is much more reasonable.
Lol, good one. They got to do something about that loophole.
I know this is sarcasm but i don’t see Goldy making more per year then his last deal. I would say 2 years, maybe 42-44 million total and yes, some of it deferred.
I guess. It’s all about how much. He’s entering his age 36 season. A 2 year extension covers ages 37 and 38. How many players are productive at that age?
The Cardinals want him to go into the hall of fame wearing their hat. That is a factor here for sure.
Just a reminder how the Dodgers hosed everyone and got Ohtani for free. How you ask? Let’s run through it
Recent estimates mentioned Ohtani accounted for $25 mil in revenue for the Angels. Dodgers are more popular and expect to generate more off him, but I’ll even use an ultra conservative $30 mil generated (it will probably be more).
Ohtani’s contract is structured so they really aren’t paying him anything for 10 years, so the Dodgers will basically collect $300 mil in revenue off him more or less without paying him anything. But you also have to remember they can invest as they collect. The interest compounded over this period as they add $30 mil more revenue off him each season brings the total to $475 million. This is before they pay him much of anything (ok technically $10 mil will be paid since he gets $2 mil per season).
From there they start to pay him, but they still have this lump sum to accumulate interest while they pay him. I used a retirement withdrawal calculator for this part, but basically if you start with 465 million at a 10% interest rate and want to make it last 10 years you can effectively withdraw $68.8 million each year before hitting 0 at the 10 year mark. It aligns almost perfectly with what they will be “withdrawing” to pay Ohtani his contract after he’s done playing for them.
The Dodgers played all of us. Props to them. The question is what were others doing while the Dodgers were doing all this?
Also I used a very conservative $30 mil of revenue generated from the Ohtani factor for LAD each year. In reality they will probably bank more off him and make more than they’ll pay him in the long run of all this. Every single franchise took a huge L on this one, not just from a missed opportunity for the best player in baseball but also to rake in more cash than they’ll pay out to a single player.
You’ll always be a 6x all star w/ the Snakes. If he wants a WS ring he is going to have to look elsewhere. Redbirds trying to buy that possible HOF hat.
No debate here! The cardinals have still won more World Series than any other NL team!!!! Can’t compare the snakes to the red birds! Even the Dodgers buying all star teams fail to be what the Cardinals are and will be!
Maybe they’ll get Ian Anderson to pitch for you. When he warms up, they’ll play Living In The Past.
All but two of those probably came before you were born
And at this rate, I’d bet on LA winning several more before StL gets another
He’s HOF. One of my favorite arguments is that Votto is shoe-in HOF, but Goldy is only “hall of good”. Look at their numbers. Right now, they’re very close, but Goldy being younger and better at this point, he’s likely to end up with more hits, HRs, RBI, SBs, Runs, GGs than Votto. There’s not much question in the minds of those who are paying attention that they’re both going in. For Goldy, it’s just a matter of which hat, and yes, the Cards think about those things at times like this.
@Charlie: Before the HOF chooses Goldschmidt’s hat, it’s just a matter of him getting 75% of the BBWAA votes.
If he does, and that’s a big IF, he’s played 8 years for Arizona and 5 years for St Louis. Unless he stays with the Cardinals and has 3-4 more good years, it’s more than likely the HOF will put the DBacks hat on his plaque.
Slow down and don’t get ahead of yourself about such a trivial detail.
You mean adding Lynn and Gray won’t propel them to greatness this year?
I fail to understand why Mozeliak continues to show his hand before the betting even begins.
I bet the House loves to see him coming
Probably because Goldy has expressed interest in an extension? This isn’t an uncommon thing
Nothing to hide on this one. There’s mutual interest. No card/chess games needed. They just work together to get it done. (But Mo definitely played his hand early with O’Neill).
He didn’t play his hand early. He probably already had offered O’Niell to almost every MLB team when they announced it.
It wasn’t news to other GMs – and since there were multiple teams interested it probably didn’t drive his trade value down much. Injuries and strikeouts were responsible for that.
3 years 90m. He’s getting old and shouldn’t get any more than what Cohen paid Verlander
2 yrs $40MM
I would agree with 2 years/$40 million, and then he gets a one year deal with a mutual option after that if he wants to keep playing and still has something left in the tank. Don’t think he has any realistic chance of approaching $30mil/yr in any deal at this point.
Hard to believe he’s already 36.
Good for Goldy.
SURE THEY ARE!! THEY JUST LEARNED SOME LOOPHOLES FROM THE DODGERS, ALTHOUGH DEFERRALS HAVE BEEN APPLIED BEFORE, BUT NOT ON THIS LEVEL!! THE CARDS CAN PAY GOLDSMIDT A RIDICULOUS AMOUNT AS LONG AS HE IS INTO DEFERRALS!
Right, as long as he’s into deferrals.
@ABraves23: Why are you SHOUTING?
I don’t understand why. He wasn’t bad in 23, but clearly he’s aging. Let him go have a part time role in Arizona
Everyone is aging. He won the MVP in 2022.
He’s still a very good player, good teammate, and good clubhouse presence. The Cards also care about culture, which is instrumental in convincing guys like Arenado to stick around. There’s plenty of reason to get a deal done if it doesn’t break the bank, and I don’t think this one will.
Okay, I’m a very unhappy Cards fan, and this take still makes negative sense
That is because you choose to be negative.
Bring him back!!! I vote yes!
Max out the credit card!!
I love Goldy! I wonder if they have thought about a contract with Walker?
I would like it, too. 8 years/90 million or something. Let’s build a core with Walker, Gorman, Nootbaar and Edman. I think Donovan is great as well but his trade value might never be higher.
As bad as the team was in 2023, it seems unwise to extend any members of the team who are over the age of 30.
He seems like a pretty quiet guy. Is he a leader in the clubhouse , Cardinals fans? Does he do a lot of media and speaking for the team? Watching the season unravel from afar last year, I just didn’t pick up many quotes from this guy saying much about it.
The pitching and the management fell apart!!!! That’s where the discussion should start
Not to be unkind, but watching the Cardinals flounder is so unbelievably unusual and; therefore, so darn entertaining. It’s as if the laws of physics (and baseball) have been turned upside down. Wild stuff.
As a Cardinals fan, I’ll take the backhanded compliment and give you the hopefully short-lived celebration. Everyone’s a winner.
You’re just another saint from on high in Baseball Heaven!
Very good question. He is known to be a great teammate and great clubhouse guy. He’s always looking for ways to improve his game and the game of those around him. People come to him for advice (both players and coaches). He’s not fiery but is looked at as a leader in the clubhouse. He’s also a huge contributor to the community. He serves and gives a lot. Great presence in St. Louis for sure. He’s the kind of guy you want as a face of your franchise.
I live in Saint Louis. What does Goldschmidt do? I’m not saying he doesn’t, but you certainly don’t hear about it like you did with Molina, Holiday, Pujols and Wainrwright. All players visit kids at Barnes. But specific does he do that stand out above the rest in STL? I have scene him on billboards for charity like the other. Arenado neither for that matter. I’m just curious how you are so definitive. I have a little inside information and all I know about Goldy is he is a bible thumper. Not a leader at all. He wont give his opinion unless asked, it very willing to help when asked. Otherwise a quiet recluse.
Todd Helton took a 2-year extension at $5 million per late in his career. But he had already declined to near replacement level by then; Goldschmidt is still pretty good.
The Cardinals do love those farewell tours. Whether extending Goldschmidt would do much to win ball games is another question. I can easily see Goldy coming in at something like 2.5 WAR in 2025 and 2.0 WAR in 2026.
How much should you pay for that? I’m not suggesting that Goldschmidt will turn into a disaster like Wainwright did this year. But I would be very leery of anything over $40 million for those two seasons. Even that number looks a little rich.
2/28-30 tops
Sixty million for three years sounds right.
57m deferred
One other thing. Get ready to see the word “deferral” in every thread about a possible contract. You might even see it two or three times, or 68 million times.
In all fairness, the Cardinals do like deferring the contracts.
*680 million
Give him a contract covering 2-3 years as the same as freeman
Arenado’s got some deferred money, though nothing like Ohtani, of course. Anybody else on the team getting deferrals?
Give him 2 more years at his current amount.
I think he’s the only one left with a deferral in his contract, but they do still owe Wainwright about $10 million (over 10 years, I believe). Not exactly a bank-breaker, but that’s all I can think of off the top of my head.
That’s a terrible idea and another showing of Mozaliak being an idiot. He should be traded while he has any value left, not extended. History shows non steroid first basemen fall of a cliff production wise was at 36. The best ever even. Cabrera, Pujols, Votto. Adrian Gonzales(who is a great comp) fell off before that. He could play in late August and September of 2022, he tired out well before that in 2023. So sure let’s lock him up so he can take up a spot on an already terrible lineup.
He did tail off in September of both years, but not really before that. 2023 is kind of tough to judge between multiple regulars being shut down already and the team going down in a blaze of glory around him. His August in 2022 was ridiculously torrid, so I wouldn’t even include that month in the argument, even if he had three whole bad games at the end of the month. Also hard to be too critical of the guy who was one of the team’s statistical leaders in almost every major category in 2023 (third in HRs, only two behind the team lead, second in RBI, first in BA, first in Runs, first in Hits, first in Doubles, first in total bases, second in SBs, second in OPS, tied for first in WAR). While I agree you need to be smart about AAV and years at this age, nothing in the article says they’re going to go overboard in either department, so it would be kind of silly not to get behind talking about an extension when you’re not obligated to get into ridiculous numbers in the discussion. Feel free to criticize if they give him a 5-year, $150 million extension, but that’s obviously not going to happen. I’m not Mo’s biggest fan, but I’d rather talk to Goldy at this point than ignore him and send him packing without even bringing up the idea of keeping him here.
History doesn’t lie and lost steriod era history shows first baseman fall off a cliff at age 36 season. His 2023 season gives no reason to think it won’t be the case for Goldschmidt as well. He was top of the team in stats, sure. Someone has to be. The offense was one of the worst in the league. I’m sure you’ll spew some excuses of down season, or injuries or shutting people down. None of that matters all bad teams go through that, that’s why they are bad.
The offense will agruanly be worse this season because Goldschmidt and Arenado will comitinue to regress. I’ll stop inevitable responses new of “but Walker will much improved”. Again History has shown players are relatively flat to their first 100 games for most of their career. Especially those that were top 50 prospects.
The team is probably 100 loss team this year. All I’m saying is Goldschmidt proves more value in trade return this year then he does in the field so unless the plan is sign and trade and extension make no sense. And if the extension is for the ridiculous reason of a card hat in the maybe/maybe not hall of fame induction, then Mozaliak should be driven out of town immediately.
If this happens, Mozaliak will probably have some interest in some paper weights I have as well.
Loyalty contracts are the Cardinals continuous downfall. Goldy has been great but why ignore the obvious downturn? He was extremely unclutch last season. Not sure he can be counted on to hit 3rd or 4th anymore. Spend the money elsewhere. Better hope the young guys like Gorman and Walker step up or we may have some down years ahead of us.
I don’t see signing Goldy to a long term extension , but a couple years would make sense. I would think he would not want to keep playing if he is not capable of doing so at a better than average level