Heading into the 2024 season, the main question surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one of whether the Cardinals would be able to get an extension done. Interest in a new contract for Goldschmidt was reported as far back as December, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in January that extension talks could be tabled until early in the season. At the time, Goldschmidt was fresh off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 games. That didn’t come close to his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it was still well north of the league average and made Goldschmidt one of the more productive first basemen in the game.
Fast forward a few months, and the narrative has changed dramatically. Goldschmidt got out to the worst start of his career and seemed wholly unable to recover. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, May and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially excellent Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than an average hitter at the plate.
Even if one looked at the dip from his 2022 production to his 2023 output as the potential beginning of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a genuine surprise. Goldschmidt hadn’t simply had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% walk rate was nowhere near his career mark. Goldschmidt was still hitting the ball hard, but his contact was less frequent and much of that hard contact was coming in the form of hard grounders rather than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball rate in the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.
Since that point, things have begun to turn around. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive showing in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 since the calendar flipped to July — including a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Again, this isn’t a simple change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout rate from the season’s first three months is down to 23.5% since July 1 — and just 21% since Aug. 1.
Despite that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily become more selective at the plate. He’s still not walking nearly as often as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — nor is he chasing off the plate any less than he did in the season’s first three months. What he has done, however, is become much more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s typically patient approach led him to swing at just 61.4% of pitches in the strike zone from Opening Day through the end of June. Since then, he’s offered at 68.1% of such pitches. His overall swing rate through three months was at 46.2%, but he’s up to 49.4% in the three months since.
Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances end on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on those pitches. Of those 50, 26 came in the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, nearly 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch variety. It’s not a huge difference, but it lends credence to the fact that Goldschmidt has been more aggressive and been better off for it.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half looked like that of a player on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his results. The past two-plus months, however, tell another story. Goldschmidt may not be the MVP-level hitter he was just two seasons ago, but he’s been clearly above-average since July, including an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his past 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and may not recover if he maintains his more aggressive approach, but he’s hitting for average and power alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, starting this hot and then fading toward league-average, his down season likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.
As it stands, league-average is precisely where Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to an even 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is only 2% worse than average. An average-hitting first baseman isn’t generally a QO candidate, but if the Cardinals believe Goldschmidt can sustain his late surge, then there’s good reason to make an offer. Even if he accepts, a $21.2MM salary for a player whom they believe can continue in the vicinity of a .275/.315/.483 pace would be defensible. And if he walks, the Cards would of course be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip side, if Goldschmidt were to accept and revert to his first-half form, it’d be a clear misstep that sets the franchise back in 2025 as they look to return to contending.
It all comes down to how much the Cardinals believe in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and how much they’re willing to risk in the name of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months ago, Goldschmidt would’ve seemed like a no-brainer QO recipient. Three months ago, the decision would’ve seemed like a no-brainer — for the opposite reason. Now, the Cardinals will fall somewhere in the middle. Let’s open this up for a poll:
Looks like Father Time has caught up to Goldy.
And the rest of the cardinals roster
Well they shouldn’t be surprised that this roster got old because it was old when it was put together. But I voted yes because Goldie seems the most likely to buckle down and earn it next year and figure it out. I’d at least offer it to him. Worst thing happens and he accepts and is there next year. Even if he says no you get some kind of pick back. It’s worth a 22 million dollar gamble I’d say.
BTW they just said Contreras is out for the year. In the article Marmol is quoted as saying they were random injuries nobody could have prevented, Really? Who was the moron who told him he’d be a better framer if he tried to catch the ball before the hitter could swing? I’m thinking if you bought a muzzle for that guy it would have been preventable right?
That’s a terrible gamble! He’d obviously accept it, and there’s at least a 90% chance he won’t be worth anywhere near that amount while hamstringing the Cardinals’ ability to upgrade the rest of the roster.
Hellz no, and if you’re a Cards fan who thinks that way, you’re an idiot.
The QO will be on the high side of $20M next year.
He’s not going to get the QO but will probably return on a 1 year deal
The only way I want the Cardinals to bring him back is for substantially less than a qualifying offer. I don’t see him getting that on the open market either.
No…..only reason is on the off chance that some other team bites and signs him and to get another draft pick. But you could get stuck with him too which is the down side. About a $10M gamble IMO…
$20M. That’s what the QO is. And, it’s a big-ass failure by the author not to mention how much it is.
No one knows exactly what it will be yet,but it’s currently projected to be 21.2m.
Ya I know…I am saying he is worth $10M. So you could end up overpaying him by $10M
You sound even more like a guy who didn’t read the article.
No. Not performing you shouldn’t get paid.
Love Goldy. But, he’s not worth $20 mil. Per anymore.
Brandon Belt didn’t receive a sniff of interest after last season. Whyyyyy would Goldschmidt get $20MM?
Brandon belt not playing this season made zero sense, he for sure should have been picked up
Brandon Belt at this stage was a platoon player. If Goldie rebounds he’ll be worth way more than a QO.
Belt was a strong side platoon player, which is basically a full time starter. If he can’t even get a major league deal, teams aren’t paying up for old 1B/DH types anymore.
Look at JD Martinez, it took him forever to get an 8 mm deal. He literally cannot play in the field, so there is a difference, but Goldy isn’t adding 14m plus in value w his glove.
He wlll not, and please tell me you’re not a Cards fan.
Time to move on. Two straight losing seasons means major changes (or should). Burleson and Baker make a nice platoon. We’ll take a hit defensively but again, time to move on
Who says they’ll have another losing season this year? They’re currently right at .500.
Still, I agree that it’s time to move on from Goldy.
2 years, $30M. The QO will be too much, both sides will want to save face.
Club option on the 2nd year
Yeah, this is my thinking. Because, defense, baserunning, and character are under appreciated on this site, many mant Goldy to go, if they can get him at a reasonable rate, they should. If Goldy was showing signs of age on the basepaths or on defense, I would agree he should be let go. But he has not regressed there.
Man, the mentality of the “what have you done for me lately” crowd around here is outrageous. Before this season, Goldschmidt put up 12 consecutive seasons of an OPS over 115, many of them WAY over 115. The guy has a down year and everyone around here is just ready to cut him loose. He is a borderline HOFer right now, and probably goes into likely territory with one more good or 2-3 more decent years. He deserves the benefit of the doubt for a single average year.
Give him the QO and try to sign a 2 or 3 year extension at around $15MM a year. If he accepts the QO, then it’s only a one year salary and there is no such thing as a franchise destroying one year contract. If he doesn’t and signs elsewhere, then at least you might get a draft pick in exchange for losing a recent MVP.
He shouldn’t be borderline if mcgriff is in, but voters are weird. Will Clark never even got 5% of the vote.
McGriff has 450 more hits and 130 more homers and almost 300 more RBIs. Longevity is part of the equation. I think that was the biggest problem for Clark as well. He seems like a guy that could have gotten on a roll like Andruw Jones or Bert Blyleven or Alan Trammell if only he had survived that first vote. It’s actually kind of weird that he didn’t get at least 5% his first year because there weren’t any big names in his year on the ballot. Only Orel Hershiser received more votes than Clark among first timers.
At his age yes it is at the point where what have you done lately. I’m not fateful of the man but I’m not giving him more than one year at a time and if he wants anything north of 15 million he needs to earn it with his bat in 25. Goldy was great but he didn’t play for free. He signed a fair contract for his abilities and age. I definitely think he’s worth resigning at 15 million for one year to see if he can produce more like he has of late but I’d also be ready to make a deal in season that made him a bench player if he didn’t perform. The Cardinals have shown they need to be better at most areas of the game. But what they really need are star bats to hit like star bats. What Burleson did this year was great and lots of youth pitching in with promise but when your star first baseman hits league average that’s a huge drain and the Cardinals aren’t good enough to sustain it.
I think Jose Abreus abrupt fall off is scaring teams away from aging 1B
It’s not “what have you done for me lately” it’s what are you likely to do for me next year, or the next half decade in your wild scenario.
This isn’t the Steroid era anymore, 37 is ancient these days, and there are plenty of warning signs that the end is nigh for Goldy.
Beyond that, the Cards have plenty of needs they could use that money for, and plenty of in house options to try at 1B.
IDK, might as well. Do the Cardinals actually still see themselves as contenders?
If they don;t, they need to replace their entire front office immediately. Fans can see teams however they want, but if ANY front office doesn’t see themselves as contending NEXT year, they don’t deserve to be in the league. Even rebuilding teams shouldn’t see themselves as completely out of it because turnarounds can happen quickly. The Rangers and Diamondbacks both went from 100 losses to the World Series in just 2 years. Last year’s 100 loss Royals are likely in the postseason this year.
Not right now, but they were at late as mid-August, and they plan to be so again next year.
If they don’t plan on contending, paying Goldy 22m to block a young guy from playing time seems sub optimal.
He’s definitely declined and near the end of his career. Any team giving him more than $2M per year should have their head examined and I wouldn’t be surprised if he only gets invites to spring training over a MLB deal
You’re crazy. He was a 3 win player last year, and almost 8 win the year before. He will definitely get a major league deal. Watch the giants give him a 2 year 20 mill contract after they trade wade
“3 win player last year”..I’m admittedly a “Goldy” fan, but sports is about youth, now and winning. You truly cannot win “last year’s” World Series because it’s already been played.
“Sports is about youth”
Uhh no it’s not. Mostly it’s about winning. It’s also about predicting future success judged against the past. You can’t win last years series, but you can win the next one
I’m not crazy, I’ve watched his performance all year and he’s toast, done. He’s hitting .244/.303/.410 which is well below average for a 1st baseman. And he’s 37 so he’s not getting any younger.
Good thing its not your money you’re spending it you’d be better off playing craps in Vegas than giving Goldie a guaranteed contract
“I wouldn’t be surprised if he only gets invites to spring training over a MLB deal”
Well at least the QO Goldy camp aren’t the only guys saying crazy stuff.
I think the Cards would be nuts to QO Goldy, but his value is definitely closer to 22 guaranteed than 0 guaranteed.
I don’t have cable or satellite, so i follow a lot of Cardinal games on my phone. It seems very often this season, he looks at the first two strikes and he is constantly 0-2, and ends up chasing something way out of the strike zone.
I think that was what his problem was most of the first half. He has somewhat changed that approach, and it finally is starting to pay huge dividends.
What Mozeliak should do and what he’ll end up doing are often worlds apart. I’d let Goldschmidt walk and look to the future, but nostalgia usually wins the day in STL, so I think they give him a 2-year, $30M contract. It’s their money, and they can blow it any way they like.
I’m not sure it’ll even be Mo’s decision to make. They’ve already fired Gary Laroque, the scouting director during the majority of his time as GM. Bigger changes probably coming soon. Hopefully
Gary retired buddy he wasn’t canned
He will play next year, but not in St. Louis. Both sides need to move on.
STL passing a mid-30’s guy on a shorter-term deal?? If so, who kidnapped Moz — and please don’t report it.
Lol this is the ultimate encapsulation of my thinking. The team will have assets the next two years to trade to kick off the rebuild (and they should do it by then IMO) in the form of Helsey, Contreras, Arenado and Gray albeit with some NTCs in there. May as well throw Goldy in there on a 1/2yr deal knowing the shine (get it?) has been back for a month or two. The brewers can’t keep their stuff up forever.
I suspect the only way Goldy is in STL in 2025 is if they give him the QO. Seems unlikely. If MoTie were to run it back one more time he probably would need to hire someone to start his car w/ the heat Redbird fans are going to bring this off-season. Further, I expect going deep in the playoffs and winning a WS will be Goldy’s priority with money in the bank and such little productive time left. IMO, it’s unlikely Goldy is in STL in 2025 and it’s in both parties interest to move on.
Can see Goldy on a one or two year deal with Arizona or Houston, maybe Texas…
He feels like a guy who fits into that JD Martinez, Justin Turner tier of older veteran who still has something to offer a team. $12-$15m one year deal range. And seems like a guy who fits the Cardinals in that it’s a roster they’ve invested in so throwing Arenado, Gray, Contreras etc. a bone and adding guys on one year deals to see if it can all come together for them as opposed to just turning it over to younger guys like Walker and Gorman who haven’t set much of a floor yet or signing more higher priced veterans to multi year deals when the best before date might be approaching quickly for this roster. If the QO is kind of a leverage button they can use because they want him m, the. It’s not the worst thing if it’s above market rates.
Thanks Captain obvious
Steve Adams likes to write clickbait on occasion; clearly it’s been a while.
While unlikely, there is a point to be made to retain Goldschmidt on a “low risk” 1-year deal.
His AAV was 26 mil. The QO is around 20 mil.
So can secure him for another season without committing longterm.
Who’s more screwed if he flops in 25?
The 1 year 20 mil QO team ?
Or the 12-15 mil AAV over 2 years? (Guess at market)
That’s 90% of the media… I’m sorry you can’t comprehend anything, casual
You sound a lot like a guy who didn’t really read the article.
Maybe he has a bad back ? These numbers this year are toast.
I’d say no, bc they could try and get him back on 2 year backloaded deal
has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483
===========================
It hasn’t. Since Aug, he has a .286/.338/.493 (not the stats shown, but the total OPS of .831 comes with a .340 BABIP. That’s okay, but for a 1B who just turned 37, I’d steer clear.
It might be cool to re-sign him, but they should be able to get him for a good bit less than the $22M(?) QO.
I like “The Guy “ but he’s swinging a tree trunk. Have a feeling if he would use a lighter tree, it might speed up his bat speed a little bit.
Nothing against Burleson and Baker, even though Goldy is lacking offensively, they don’t match up defensively.
No, but the offensive advantage they provide is more than enough to make up for the defensive disadvantage, especially since Goldschmidt himself has slipped to below average 1B defense this year.
And the small matter of a 20m+ saving to pay a desperately needed RH OF
Why is this even a question?! Of course he’s not getting a QO!
Even if he doesn’t decline further next year, Goldy’s performance this year was worth nowhere near $21M! The Cardinals wouldn’t be able to afford that salary while also making necessary improvements elsewhere on the roster (since Gray is getting $25M raise next year), and they have Burleson (perhaps platooned with Baker) ready to take over at 1B anyway.
Yeah I am shocked people think he should get one
Please stay with St. Louis… signed by all other NL central teams
I am shocked 36% say give him a qualifying offer. He’s simply not worth that. He’s old sure maybe he bounces back but it’s just as likely he gets worse next year.
As a Brewer fan I think the Cardinals have to QO him, please. Maybe I’m way off base, but it’s funny to me how many Cardinal fans complain about this regime not giving guys a real chance, yet don’t wanna move on from the guys that would allow them to give said real chances
What the heck are you talking about? He’s 37 years old. He’s having a poor year. Why would they give him 20 million dollars?
Think you misread my comment. I’m saying sticking a QO on Goldy is incredibly stupid, and since I’m a Brewer fan, I hope they do it.
I figured that was your intention but you didn’t really say that.
You figured that’s what I was saying, despite me not saying that, then commented on something you didn’t think I was saying?
That makes sense.
Next time don’t be a troll. Simple solution.
Wasn’t trolling, but anything you say sir.
It’s hard to believe he has never gotten a QO in his career before now but I’m guessing the trade from the Snakes to the Cards came before he could get one then he signed an extension. Even though the QO pay level has gone up, I don’t think it’s out of the question that he gets one. It’s possible that he’d value a multi-year deal over a QO and the Cards could get a pick out of the deal.
I can see the Cardinals sign Goldy to a 1 year $10M with incentives , if he decides that 2025 is his last year and retires or I can see him signing with Arizona D-Backs on the same type of contract a la Albert Pujols did in 2022 and have a farewell tour.
Am I the only one that checks the mlbtr cardinals page everyday looking for “cardinals fire Marmol” headline?