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Neil Walker

Injury Notes: Gomez, Sanchez, Marte, Bird, Prado

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Rays outfielder Carlos Gomez has been activated from the 10-day disabled list; he’d been sidelined since May 16th with a strained groin. The injury was thought to be minor at the time, and the fact that Gomez missed only the ten-day minimum leaves little room to doubt his health at this time. That doesn’t mean his performance comes without questions, though, as the veteran is slashing just .200/.252/.345 on the season. No corresponding move was required for Tampa Bay, as their roster was two men short following yesterday’s surprising trade with Seattle.

And now a flurry of other injury-related items from around the league…

  • David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggests that Anibal Sanchez could be the Braves’ starter on Tuesday following a successful rehab start on Friday. Mark Bowman of MLB.com takes it a step further by quoting manager Brian Snitker, who reportedly said that Sanchez is indeed penciled in to start Tuesday’s game. Sanchez has a 1.29 ERA in three appearances (two starts) on the season.
  • Adam Berry of MLB.com writes that Starling Marte will be activated from the DL by the Pirates today if he reports to the ballpark feeling ready to play. It’d be a remarkably quick return for the 29-year-old outfielder, who has been sidelined with an oblique injury. Injuries of that type have a reputation for lingering and causing players to miss extended time. One has to wonder what Marte’s potential activation would mean for the red-hot Austin Meadows, who’s managed more homers in the big leagues thus far (3) than strikeouts (2).
  • The Yankees have reinstated first baseman Greg Bird from the disabled list, optioning infielder Ronald Torreyes to Triple-A in a corresponding move. Marc Carig of The Athletic notes that the move makes plenty of sense considering the versatility of Gleyber Torres and the fact that a removal of Neil Walker from the roster isn’t reversible. Bird entered the season with plenty of hype surrounding him, but has yet to make his 2018 debut thanks to right foot surgery.
  • In a move that was widely expected, the Marlins placed Martin Prado (hamstring) on the 10-day DL today, recalling J.T. Riddle from Triple-A to take his place on the roster. It’s the latest in an unfortunate series of injuries for the formerly-durable Prado, who made only 147 trips to the plate last year following eight straight seasons with at least 500 PA.

Yankees Activate Brandon Drury From DL, Option Him To Triple-A

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The Yankees announced on Monday that they’ve reinstated infielder Brandon Drury from the 10-day disabled list and optioned him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The move means that for the time being, New York will continue to rely upon Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Austin, Neil Walker and Ronald Torreyes around the infield, with Drury somewhat surprisingly waiting in the wings at Triple-A on the heels of a very productive minor league rehab assignment.

Drury hit the disabled list last month due to ongoing migraine issues and blurred vision. He’s reportedly tried out wearing some yellow-tinted glasses during rehab games in an effort to aid his vision, and while it may have been mere coincidence, the results from his recent stretch of 11 games with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre were impressive; in 42 plate appearances, he hit .343/.452/.514 with a homer and three doubles.

[Related: Updated New York Yankees depth chart]

However, Drury’s placement on the DL opened the door for some younger prospects to make their debuts, and during his absence, Walker’s bat began to show signs of life. The veteran Walker is hitting .346/.514/.462 in 35 plate appearances this month and has provided the Yankees with some key hits, while Andujar and Torres have shown varying degrees of promise. In the case of Torres, he’s hitting .319/.360/.493 with three homers through his first 76 big league plate appearances and hasn’t done much of anything to give the Yankees cause to send him back down to the minors.

It’s more arguable that Andujar has shown some cracks at the big league level and could yet be in need of refinement. While he’s hitting .282 with a .458 slugging percentage, Andujar has drawn just three walks in 135 plate appearances, resulting in a paltry .296 on-base percentage. While he’s not striking out much, his .337 average on balls in play is considerably higher than the league norm of .295. If that BABIP regresses at all, then he could very well see his OBP fall into the .280 range. For the time being, he’s hit in six straight games (8-for-25), though all of his hits in that time have been singles.

The Yankees could’ve created a temporary solution by sending Austin to Triple-A, but the 26-year-old has slugged five homers in 89 plate appearances despite hitting just .222 with a .292 on-base percentage. Austin seems likely to be a roster casualty when Greg Bird is ready to be activated from the disabled list anyhow.

Whether due to an injury somewhere around the big league infield or a slump from Andujar, it still seems reasonable to expect that Drury will be back with the Yankees at some point in the relatively near future.

AL East Notes: Vlad Jr., Walker, Orioles

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Though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is laying waste to Double-A pitching, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that the organization is not planning to bring him to the Majors just yet. Guerrero only just turned 19, but he’s obliterated Eastern League pitching at a .388/.452/.624 clip with three homers, nine doubles, a triple and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through 105 plate appearances. Atkins explains, however, that the team still sees some areas for improvement in other aspects of his game. “That’s just offence, right, when you say statistically,” says Atkins. “…And it’s only a month of performance above A-ball, as well. … Right now, we’re entirely focused on Vladdy as the best possible third baseman he could be, the best possible base-runner, of course offensive player, and teammate. And right now, we currently have a very good third baseman on our major-league team.”

Theoretically, the Blue Jays could split Guerrero and Josh Donaldson in a timeshare between third base and DH, though Atkins indicated a desire to get Guerrero as many reps as possible. The GM also stressed that service time and arbitration considerations aren’t impacting Guerrero’s timeline. (Indeed, he’s already been in the minors long enough to delay free agency by a year.)

Here’s more from the division…

  • Despite his struggles and a sudden glut of infielders in the Bronx, Neil Walker is in no danger of losing his roster spot, Yankees GM Brian Cashman tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Cashman points to Walker’s lengthy and consistent track record in the Majors in plainly stating that he “[doesn’t] see Walker as a guy to release, eat (his salary) or trade.” Walker is hitting .171/.233/.195 through 90 plate appearances, and the Yankees will eventually have Brandon Drury back from the disabled list, where he’ll join Walker, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Ronald Torreyes in the infield mix. It’s not clear how the Yankees will manage that on-paper surplus.
  • Chris Tillman’s struggles are putting the Orioles in an increasingly difficult spot, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but the organization presently has little in the way of alternatives that are ready to step into the big league rotation. Tillman tossed seven shutout innings and allowed one hit last week, but he was clobbered by the Angels last night and pulled after recording just three outs and watching his ERA balloon to 9.24. Kubatko suggests that Double-A lefty Keegan Akin could eventually be an option, though he’s made just five starts above A-ball. Speculatively, right-hander David Hess is off to a respectable start in Triple-A and is on the 40-man roster. But other options, both on the 40-man and of the non-roster variety, are struggling in the upper minors. Tillman’s struggles could eventually force the team’s hand, but it doesn’t sound likely that he’s on the verge of being cut loose.

New York Notes: Walker, Yanks, Mets, A-Gon

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There’s a chance that Yankees infielder Neil Walker’s roster spot could soon be in jeopardy, George A. King III of the New York Post suggests. With third baseman Brandon Drury nearing a return from the disabled list and first baseman Greg Bird scheduled to come off the DL sometime next month, the Yankees could have an infield logjam which pushes someone out. That may prove to be Walker, even though he signed a $4MM deal with the Yankees in March. While Walker, 32, was previously a solid producer with the Pirates, Mets and Brewers, he has batted just .181/.231/.208 (16 wRC+) in his first 78 plate appearances as a Yankee. The fact that Walker didn’t have much of a spring training after going without a contract for several months has perhaps contributed to his sluggish start. Either way, he may need a significant uptick in production to stick on the roster if fellow infielders Drury, Bird, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Austin are all healthy in the near future. Of course, there’s recent precedent for the Yankees quickly cutting bait on a free-agent signing. It happened last June when the team designated slugger Chris Carter for assignment just a few months after guaranteeing him $3.5MM.

Now for the latest on the Yanks’ crosstown rivals…

  • With Mets catchers Jose Lobaton and Tomas Nido having combined for six hits in 54 plate appearances, the club is at least considering outside options, general manager Sandy Alderson said Saturday (via Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News). “We continue to monitor the market, see what is available to us. At the same time we monitor Plawecki and his progress,” said Alderson, referring to starting catcher Kevin Plawecki, who went on the disabled list April 13 with a hairline fracture in his left hand. At approximately the same time, the Mets lost fellow backstop Travis d’Arnaud to a season-ending elbow injury, leaving them with Lobaton and Nido behind the plate. Alderson is content with the tandem’s defensive work, but it’s clear they’ve been a drag on the team’s offense. While potential trade candidates Wilson Ramos, Blake Swihart and Max Stassi have recently come up as possible targets for the Mets, Ackert hasn’t heard anything about specific backstops the team may be considering (Twitter link).
  • The Mets have also gotten poor offensive production at first base, thanks largely to the struggles of low-cost free-agent pickup Adrian Gonzalez. The 35-year-old concluded his Dodgers tenure in 2017 with a nightmarish, injury-shortened showing, and he has been similarly woeful this season (.200/.296/.317 in 71 PAs). But Alderson doesn’t seem displeased with the signing, as Ackert relays in the same piece. “I think it’s played out reasonably well. If you look at some of the metrics we monitor, they are similar to his very productive years,” Alderson said. “So right now, we’re reasonably happy. I am sure he’d like to have a higher batting average and so would we. He’s had some big hits for us. What goes somewhat unrecognized, is on defense the confidence he gives the rest of the infielders over there. We’ll continue to see where this goes.” Despite Alderson’s public vote of confidence in Gonzalez, outfielder Jay Bruce could take over for him at first if his subpar production continues. Shifting Bruce to first would open up a spot in the outfield for the promising Brandon Nimmo, and it’s hard to argue the Mets are better with this version of Gonzalez in their lineup than him.

AL East Notes: Austin, Kelly, Walker, Bogaerts, Holt, Hardy

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The suspension appeals for Yankees first baseman Tyler Austin and Red Sox setup man Joe Kelly have both been heard. Austin’s suspension has been reduced from five games to four, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link), while Kelly’s six-game suspension was upheld (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). Both players were suspended and fined for their respective roles in the bench-clearing brawl two weeks back.

Some more notes from the division…

  • With Austin suspended, Neil Walker could pick up those starts at first base, and the opportunity will be an important one for him, writes Newsday’s Steven Marcus. With Austin and rehabbing Greg Bird likely to hold down first base, Gleyber Torres now at second base, Miguel Andujar at third base and Brandon Drury on the mend, Walker’s role with the Yankees is becoming increasingly muddied as he battles through a dismal start to the season. Walker, who is hitting just .172/.232/.203, made no excuses for his poor start and said his shortened Spring Training and injury history aren’t at the root of his struggles.
  • Xander Bogaerts could return to the Red Sox today, writes Chad Jennings of The Athletic (subscription link), which would cut into the playing time of a resurgent Brock Holt, who is hitting .340/.400/.520 through his first 55 trips to the plate. Holt chats with Jennings about his lost 2017 season which was ruined by recurring symptoms of vertigo that impacted him at the plate and in the field. Boston made the decision to hang onto Holt and instead trade Deven Marrero to the D-backs in Spring Training, entrusting Holt to be the primary utility infielder in the process. Now, however, there’s at least some minor injury concern with Holt; he exited last night’s game with tightness in his hamstring and is set to be re-evaluated today (Twitter link via Jennings). If he requires a DL stint, the Sox could potentially just flip Holt and Bogaerts, placing the former on the disabled list while activating the latter.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tackles a host of Orioles questions from readers in light of the team’s awful start to the season, with topics ranging from the slow starts by Alex Cobb and Chris Tillman to the eventual promotion of Austin Hays. Of note, Kubatko reveals upon being asked about a possible J.J. Hardy reunion that the longtime O’s shortstop “seems quite content at home with his family.” Kubatko notes that he even broached the idea with some within the organization after Tim Beckham’s injury and was told that no one within the org seems to think that Hardy is reconsidering his current situation. The 35-year-old Hardy spent the past seven seasons as Baltimore’s primary shortstop but hit .217/.255/.323 through 73 games in an injury-plagued 2017 season and didn’t sign anywhere as a free agent this winter.

NL East Notes: Robles, Walker, Swanson

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Some items from around the NL East…

  • The Nationals optioned outfielder Victor Robles to Triple-A today, a move that came as little surprise given that the club didn’t want to keep Robles on the big league bench rather than gaining valuable everyday experience in the minors.  Robles, a consensus top-six prospect in baseball, bypassed Triple-A entirely last season when he was called up by the Nats for 13 September games (plus a spot on the NLDS roster).  Washington is already set in the outfield with Bryce Harper, Michael Taylor, and Adam Eaton, leaving Robles without a clear path to playing time.  He’ll begin 2018 getting his first taste of Triple-A ball and one would expect he’ll again return to the Nats roster this season, though the exact timing could be in question depending on if the Nationals want to manage Robles’ service time.
  • Neil Walker kept the idea of a return to the Mets open until the team signed Todd Frazier, Walker tells Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media.  The infielder and the Mets “just kept in touch about interest levels, so on and so forth,” Walker said.  “They were just checking in to see if I was willing to come back and things like that. I certainly was.  But, really, when Frazier came in, we kind of felt like it wasn’t a possibility.”  The Mets were known to be exploring a wide range of options at second and third base, ranging from everyday players to utility options, and they eventually struck on both fronts by re-signing Jose Reyes for a backup role and signing Frazier for more or less everyday duties at the hot corner.  Walker ended up signing with New York’s other team, inking a one-year $4MM deal with the Yankees
  • Dansby Swanson’s first full MLB season didn’t go as planned, as the Braves shortstop and former first overall pick struggled to a .232/.312/.324 slash line over 551 and was even briefly demoted back to Triple-A.  Despite the lack of results, Swanson told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that he is looking at his 2017 as a learning opportunity.  “Just because last year didn’t go as planned, it doesn’t mean that this year won’t,” Swanson said.  “We all struggle at points in our lives.  I’m grateful it happened early, because you can build off that and learn your lessons and move forward.  I don’t even look at it as failure.  I look at it as growth.”  Still just 24 years old, Swanson has been working on his fielding and has adopted a new positioning of his hands on the bat as he looks to break out as Atlanta’s everyday shortstop.

East Notes: Walker, Reed, Nationals, Orioles, Rays

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Neil Walker’s one-year, $4MM deal with the Yankees seems like one of the better bargains achieved by a team in an unprecedentedly slow offseason for free agents, and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks back to last offseason when the infielder was discussing a longer-term pact with the Mets. At some point last winter, the Mets floated a three-year extension for Walker that would’ve been worth “about” $42MM, per Davidoff. Presumably that would include the 2017 season, during which he was already set to be paid $17.2MM, as it seems unlikely both that the Mets would offer three new years with Walker returning from back surgery and equally unlikely that Walker’s camp would reject said notion (though that’s just my own speculation). If that number is indeed accurate, Walker will obviously come out behind ($21.2MM over the first two of those three seasons), though certainly no one saw this type of free-agent freeze coming. Davidoff adds that Walker’s camp tried to reignite those “contentious” discussions later in the winter, but the Mets declined.

Regarding his own free agency this past offseason, while there were some early rumblings connecting him and the Pirates, Walker tells reporters that there’s “no validity” to those rumors and that he and his agents “didn’t hear from them once the entire offseason” — even when it was clear recently that he’d come at a rather affordable rate (via Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

More out of the game’s Eastern divisions…

  • Addison Reed tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that playing for the Red Sox and pitching at the hallowed grounds of Fenway Park exceeded his expectations in 2017, adding: “…and I expected it to be pretty damn good.” However, Reed openly admits that a return to Boston wasn’t high on his list as he headed into free agency this winter. While he had nothing against the Red Sox and spoke glowingly of the organization, his preference was to end up with a Midwest team. (Speier notes that his wife is from Ohio.) Reed achieved that feat by landing a two-year deal with the Twins, and while he took a shorter deal than most predicted, it seems possible that that outcome was in part due to his self-imposed geographic limitations.
  • Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged to reporters today that right-hander Koda Glover’s shoulder is taking longer to heal than the team anticipated (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Glover’s uncertain status notwithstanding, Rizzo doesn’t feel the team needs to go outside the organization for additional bullpen help, Janes notes. The GM said he likes what he’s seen from right-handers Trevor Gott and Austin Adams this spring, and the Nats of course have deepened their bullpen over the past nine months with the acquisitions of Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, Brandon Kintzler and, earlier this spring, Joaquin Benoit.
  • Janes also tweets that Rizzo was adamant that the Nationals “would never” keep top outfield prospect Victor Robles in a bench role. While many Nats fans may be hoping that the ballyhooed 20-year-old can make the roster in a reserve capacity, Rizzo’s comments further reinforce the idea that the Nats will keep Robles in a regular role with Triple-A Syracuse until an everyday opening presents itself at the big league level.
  • The Orioles’ roster further took shape yesterday with the news that outfielder Joey Rickard has been optioned to Triple-A and veteran infielder Ruben Tejada was assigned to minor league camp. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com looks at the team’s utility infielder opening, noting that Engelb Vielma, Luis Sardinas and Danny Valencia are all candidates. While Valencia, of course, doesn’t have shortstop experience, the O’s have two viable shortstop options on the roster in Manny Machado and Tim Beckham. Kubatko adds that the O’s could take a look at Erick Aybar if he doesn’t make the Twins’ roster this spring, and he notes that Baltimore could also pursue a reunion with Ryan Flaherty if he does not break camp with the Phillies.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tackles a host of Rays roster scenarios as he strives to project the 25-man unit that’ll break camp for Opening Day. Interestingly, he paints veteran lefty Dan Jennings as a potential trade candidate and doesn’t project him to make it to the Opening Day roster, instead projecting starting pitching prospects Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough (a fellow lefty) to crack the Opening Day bullpen. Topkin runs through playing time scenarios in the outfield and all around the infield, so Rays fans in particular will want to take a look at one of the more educated guesses you’ll come across for how things will shake out between now and Opening Day.

Yankees Sign Neil Walker

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The Yankees have agreed to a contract with free-agent infielder Neil Walker, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Walker, a client of Excel Sports Management, will earn a base salary of $4MM, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.

Walker can also boost his earnings a bit through bonuses, per Jack Curry of the YES Network (via Twitter) and Hoch (via Twitter). He can take home up to $500K via plate appearance incentives, with $125K apiece upon reaching each of 425, 450, 475 and 500 plate appearances.

Neil Walker | Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The agreement will bring to a close a lengthy trip through the free-agent process for the 32-year-old Walker, who struggled to find a landing spot this offseason despite a history of above-average offense and the ability to handle multiple positions around the infield. The infielder himself told Billy Witz of the New York Times recently that he thought he’d been close to an agreement with the Yankees before the team pivoted and acquired Brandon Drury from the D-backs.

Now, it seems that the Yankees will have veteran options to fill in at both third base and second base as they round out their infield before Opening Day. The addition of Walker likely means that both Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar will begin the 2018 season in the minors, with Drury lined up at the hot corner and Walker at second base. That said, Walker’s ability to bounce between first base and third base as well, if necessary, could allow him to move to a utility role later in the year if Torres emerges and pushes him for the starting second base job.

Walker is fresh off a solid .265/.362/.439 slash line with 14 homers in 448 plate appearances between the Mets and Brewers last season. A partially torn hamstring sidelined him for several weeks last summer, but he showed little in the way of ill effect late in the year, hitting at a .267/.403/.433 clip after an August trade to Milwaukee. Injuries have to be at least something of a concern with Walker, to be sure; in addition to last year’s hamstring trouble, Walker underwent back surgery in 2016 — a procedure that led to him accepting a $17.2MM qualifying offer from the Mets.

Health-related red flags notwithstanding, Walker has hit between 12 and 23 homers per season with average or better walk rates and above-average contact skills each season dating back to 2010, when he first established himself as a regular in Pittsburgh. By measure of OPS+ and wRC+, he’s been 14 to 15 percent better than the league-average hitter in that time. He’ll add to an already-imposing Yankees lineup and deepen an already-envious collection of quality infield options for GM Brian Cashman and first-year manager Aaron Boone.

The presence of Walker on the 25-man roster could also push utility infield option Tyler Wade to Triple-A early in the year, though fellow utilityman Ronald Torreyes also has options remaining. That group, paired with Drury, Torres and Andujar should leave the Yankees extremely well-positioned to deal with any injuries or unforeseen circumstances that may arise over the course of the season, and the added depth could theoretically go a long way toward keeping Walker healthy as well by affording him ample rest opportunities.

With a fairly modest overall commitment, the Yankees should still have roughly $10MM to work with as they seek midseason upgrades in advance of the nonwaiver trade deadline. Maintaining that type of flexibility has long been reported to be a critical factor for the Yankees in any free agent negotiations. That Walker’s price point fell to the range of several other solid veterans who have signed in this range in recent weeks allowed the Yankees to come away from the offseason with both of the infielders in which they held interest when previously negotiating with Walker’s camp and with the D-backs on the Drury swap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Rumors: Broxton, Santana, Aguilar, Remaining Moves

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Much has been made of the Brewers’ outfield logjam since the signing of Lorenzo Cain and acquisition of Christian Yelich seemingly left the team with more big leaguers than spots to play them. While Domingo Santana has been an oft-speculated trade candidate, frequently connected to pitching targets, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Keon Broxton has actually been garnering more attention on the trade market (Twitter links). Santana, of course, had a breakout 2017 season in which he slugged 30 homers and hit .278/.371/.505 in 607 plate appearances and is more than two years younger than Broxton. However, Broxton’s ability to play center field is leading to a greater volume of interest than the Brew Crew is receiving in Santana, per the report. Haudricourt also notes that because Broxton has a minor league option remaining, he could potentially spend enough time in Triple-A to miss Super Two status, which would mean he’s not arbitration-eligible until after the 2019 season. Even spending a month in the minors would put Broxton’s year-end service time at two years, 118 days, which would leave him shy of standard Super Two range.

A bit more on the Brewers…

  • There doesn’t appear to be space on the Brewers’ Opening Day roster for first baseman Jesus Aguilar, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy in his latest Brewers Inbox column. And, because Aguilar is out of minor league options, that means he’d be exposed to waivers (and quite likely claimed) or traded to another organization. The Brewers plan to carry eight relievers, and with Cain, Yelich, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames and Santana all in a carousel in the outfield and (in the case of Braun and Thames) at first base, there’s no clear bench spot for Aguilar. The 27-year-old Aguilar hit .265/.331/.505 with 16 homers as a rookie last year, including a .302/.370/.531 line against lefties. (A trade or injury could open a door to keep Aguilar on the roster.) McCalvy notes that Aguilar is “off-the-charts good in the clubhouse,” so retaining him would likely be a popular move with his teammates.
  • McCalvy also notes in that column that he’s received “no indication” that the Brewers are having conversations with the agents for either Neil Walker or Jonathan Lucroy — two former Brewers who remain unsigned. That meshes with comments from GM David Stearns in a Monday interview with Gary Ellerson and Ramie Makhlouf of 105.7 FM The Fan in Milwaukee (h/t: MLB.com’s Alyson Footer). Stearns said that he doesn’t expect another “significant” addition via either free agency or the trade market, though he notes that he’s still doing his due diligence and monitoring both markets with a “never say never” mentality. Nonetheless, Steanrs plainly stated that he “[anticipates] that we go into the season with the current group we have.” The GM also indicated, without delving into specific names, that the Brewers’ rumored interest in some free agents was overstated this offseason, stating that there was a “higher percentage” than usual of rumors that made him “scratch [his] head a little bit and wonder where that came from.”

The Lack Of A Market For Neil Walker Doesn’t Make Sense

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At this point, there’s little point in expounding upon what an odd offseason it’s been for Major League free agents. Relievers got paid handsomely, the devaluation of bat-first corner players is more apparent than ever, and nearly 20 percent of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents remain unsigned on March 5. Readers can choose whichever of the myriad explanations that’ve been presented this winter they prefer — the new CBA makes losing too appealing, Scott Boras’ waiting game, younger front offices valuing players near-identically, players overvaluing themselves — but the fact remains that it’s jarring to see so many quality names on the market.

Chief among the surprising eye-opening reports that have surfaced regarding the remaining free agents, at least in my view, is Neil Walker is being offered minor league contracts.

As many predicted earlier this winter, there have been some significant bargains in recent weeks — Carlos Gomez at $4MM to the Rays, Eduardo Nunez to the Red Sox at $8MM total (over two years with a player option) and Logan Morrison to the Twins at $6.5MM (plus a vesting option) — but those players were all at least rewarded with big league contracts and millions in guaranteed dollars. The notion of Neil Walker having to settle for a minor league contract seems utterly baffling.

To be sure, he was hurt by a lack of teams seeking starting second basemen, but we’ve probably never seen a player with Walker’s track record have to take a non-guaranteed deal at just 32 years of age.

Track Record

Let’s be clear — Walker isn’t a star. He’s an above-average hitter on a yearly basis that has been generally below average in the eyes of defensive metrics for the better part of the past eight seasons. His glove isn’t a killer at second, but it rarely adds to his value, at least from a purely statistical standpoint.

Walker has been remarkably consistent at the plate since establishing himself as a big league regular. Generally speaking, I don’t think citing career numbers is especially worthwhile when it comes to free agents; what a player did at age 24 isn’t really indicative of what he’s going to do in his 30s. But Walker’s level of consistency is fairly remarkable and is of some note.

He’s hit between 12 and 23 homers per season, walked between 7.3 percent and 9.1 percent in every year but 2017 (when he jumped to 12.3 percent), and he’s never struck out at even a 20 percent clip. By measure of OPS+ and wRC+, he’s been 14 to 15 percent better than the league-average hitter over those eight years, and he’s never had a single season come in anywhere worse than six percent above-average.

Clearly, I’m not the only one flabbergasted by the fact that Walker is seemingly struggling to find a big league offer; MLB.com’s Mike Petriello published a column on this exact same scenario earlier today. (Naturally, I was already well into this look at Walker’s perplexingly bleak market.) As Petriello points out, Walker is one of just six hitters in all of baseball from 2010-17 to post an OPS+ of 105 or better and 12-plus homers per season. The other five? Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre and Edwin Encarnacion. Not bad company.

Detractors may  worry about his platoon splits, as Walker faceplanted against lefties to the tune of a .214/.313/.298 slash in 2017. That line, however, came in a sample of just 84 plate appearances. Walker batted .330/.391/.610 in 110 PAs against lefties a year prior, and he’s logged a below-average but passable .264/.325/.366 slash (91 wRC+) when facing southpaws in his career. Coupled with a 122 wRC+ against righties, whom he faces more often, Walker’s overall bat is plenty valuable.

Walker does come with some injury concerns, but his medical history isn’t as daunting as the six DL trips he’s experienced in the past eight years might suggest at first glance. His 2016 back surgery and a partially torn hamstring in 2017 combine with his age (32) to create some doubt, but earlier career DL stints were caused by an appendectomy, a lacerated finger that required stitches after being spiked and a two-week absence due to soreness in his right side. His back, the largest potential red flag, didn’t keep him out of action at all in 2017.

Injury risk and minor platoon issues notwithstanding, Walker is a 32-year-old old, consistently above-average offensive performer who hits from both sides of the plate and can pass at three different positions.

Weak Market at Second Base

Walker is hardly the only free agent to struggle to find a decent offer this winter, and in his case, the reasons are perhaps easier to see than most. There simply weren’t that many clubs in the market for an everyday second baseman heading into the offseason.

The Angels had a clear need but filled that void by trading for Ian Kinsler. Walker told Billy Witz of the New York Times last week that he had some talks with the Yankees, but they ultimately acquired Brandon Drury instead. The Marlins saw a void created when they dealt Dee Gordon to Seattle, but they took on the rest of Starlin Castro’s contract in the Giancarlo Stanton swap. The Red Sox filled their short-term hole created by Dustin Pedroia’s knee surgery with Eduardo Nunez. The Blue Jays didn’t have a clear starting gig and also turned to the trade market for depth (Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz).

There are a few remaining spots where Walker could step into the mix and function as an everyday second baseman, but more and more it seems like he’s a potential bargain add for a contender (or hopeful contender) who could still provide plenty of value by bouncing between second base, third base and first base. He doesn’t have loads of experience at the infield corners in recent years, but he played more than 3000 minor league innings at the hot corner and saw time at both places in the Majors last season. As a switch-hitter with some defensive flexibility and enough bat to potentially spend some time at DH, Walker seems like he’d provide quite a lot of value as a bench player that could still vie for 400+ plate appearances as he rotates around the diamond.

Potential Everyday Fits

There aren’t too many teams throughout the league where Walker is going to push out an incumbent option at second base, but a return to the Brewers certainly makes sense. Milwaukee was discouraged enough with the combination of Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard and Hernan Perez in 2017 to go out and trade for Walker in August. He hit well there, and the team is now carrying that same trio atop its depth chart in a 2018 season where it hopes to contend. If 2016 Villar shows up, that’s a much better option than Walker. However, Villar’s strikeout problems are glaring, and he was never going to repeat 2016’s .373 BABIP.

The Tigers could simply push Dixon Machado into a utility role and give Walker everyday at-bats at second base with the hope of flipping him to a contender whose second baseman is injured this summer. He probably wouldn’t net a huge prospect return this summer given the lack of offseason demand, but Machado could get regular at-bats at shortstop later in the year once Jose Iglesias is (presumably) traded.

Turning to the D-backs, Chris Owings has never hit all that much in the Majors; his best season, by OPS+ and wRC+, came in 2014 when he was five to nine percent below average, depending on your preferred metric. Walker’s worst seasons at the plate have come when he’s “only” been about six percent better than average. Owings has also spent considerable time on the disabled list (more than Walker) in three of the past four seasons. The younger player could bounce around the diamond as a true super-utility player anyhow; even if he finally makes good on the pedigree he showed as a minor leaguer, a platoon of Walker and Jake Lamb at third base would help to mitigate Lamb’s struggles against lefties. The Snakes would need to cut ties with third catcher Chris Herrmann or fellow infielder Daniel Descalso to make the fit really work, but Walker would serve as an easily identifiable upgrade. Their payroll may be tight, but this team was coming up with scenarios to squeeze J.D. Martinez onto the books just two weeks ago.

The Rays, right now, are hoping for a Brad Miller rebound at second base or for Joey Wendle to seize the position, but Walker’s consistency should hold some level of appeal. If he can be had on a bargain one-year deal similar to their pact with Carlos Gomez, then either shifting Miller to a utility role or just paying him the 30 days’ termination pay to which he’d be entitled upon being released from his non-guaranteed arbitration deal would upgrade the team. Walker would give Tampa Bay some added protection if Matt Duffy’s ongoing injury troubles persist as well. The Rays don’t seem likely to spend much, though, and perhaps they don’t love the idea of a player with recent back and hamstring injuries roaming the turf at Tropicana Field for 81 games next season.

The Royals reportedly offered Walker a minor league deal, which he unsurprisingly rejected. But there’s a clear fit with Kansas City, as the Royals are already toying with the idea of moving Whit Merrifield to center field to create some space for Adalberto Mondesi. The Royals could use Walker at second base, as insurance for Cheslor Cuthbert at third and as a potential platoon bat with Lucas Duda at first. GM Dayton Moore, though, has repeatedly spoken about the importance of the “economic” component of any signing, and Kansas City’s minor league offer indicates they  aren’t comfortable offering much.

Super Utility Fits

The Angels are currently projected to break camp with light-hitting Kaleb Cowart on the bench as a utility option and Luis Valbuena as at least a part-time first baseman along with Albert Pujols. Walker would be a significant upgrade over Cowart, and the fact that he can’t cover shortstop in the event of an Andrelton Simmons injury isn’t a big deal when the Halos could just slide Zack Cozart over to shortstop, thus opening third for Walker or Valbuena.

Walker reportedly “intrigues” the Orioles, and they’re in a similar spot to the Angels. There’s no clear utility infielder in Baltimore at the moment, and if an injury to Manny Machado occurs, the O’s can slide Tim Beckham from third to short and place Walker at the hot corner. Baltimore has been pining for a left-handed bat for much of the offseason, and as previously noted, Walker’s bat against righties is perennially productive.

The Phillies aren’t ready to give up on Maikel Franco just yet, but they don’t need to be in order to clear room for Walker. The Phils are set to carry Tommy Joseph on their bench despite his defensive limitations and his skill set’s redundancies with Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana on the roster. Walker could back up Franco, Cesar Hernandez and Santana around the infield, and if Franco’s struggles persist, he could potentially assume a larger role at third.

Atlanta added some depth at second and third base with today’s pickup of Ryan Schimpf, but Schimpf has options remaining or could be cut loose himself. The Braves feel that Austin Riley isn’t far from Major League readiness, but Walker could pair with Johan Camargo to help bridge the gap; Camargo did all of his damage against left-handed pitching last year and could pair nicely in a platoon role with Walker at third. Walker would also give them an insurance policy against either Ozzie Albies or Dansby Swanson struggling, as if either ultimately needed to be optioned to the minors, Walker could man second with either Albies or Swanson handling shortstop.

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Earlier this offseason, when we were doing preliminary discussions for our Top 50 free agent rankings, Tim Dierkes, Jeff Todd, Jason Martinez and myself spent a bit of time discussing whether it made more sense to project three years or two years for Walker. My initial instinct was three, but we ultimately agreed on two years given Walker’s age, recent injuries and the general lack of teams expected to be looking for second basemen.

At this point, I’d be stunned to see Walker land a two-year contract even though nothing has really changed with regard to his skill set or the value he could bring to a club. The seeming lack of interest reminds me of the 2015-16 offseason, in which MLBTR projected a comparable two-year, $20MM deal for David Freese based on his track record as a fairly consistent, average player. We even had one top executive suggest to us that winter that Freese would land a deal in the three-year, $30MM range.

In the end, Freese’s market never really materialized, and he took a one-year deal with Pittsburgh worth $3MM. Walker’s track record and consistency top the consistency Freese carried into his own free agency, but it seems plausible that he could be facing a similarly modest commitment. If that’s the case, some team will be adding a bargain before Opening Day.

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