Another Option For St. Louis
My Mets source has sent an update regarding the recent Victor Diaz information. Seems the Cards just weren’t offering enough in Mark Worrell for Diaz. Diaz remains widely available, and could be used to acquire a decent second baseman like Mark Grudzielanek.
The Cardinals have another outfielder on the radar – old favorite Reggie Sanders. Reggie is 38 now, and he’s not showing any ability to get on base as a regular for the Royals. Still, his .259/.301/.476 line (8 home runs) is not far from his work with St. Louis back in ’04. Sanders typically walks about 7-8% of the time, but this year it’s been below 6%. I guess his new club is influencing his style – KC is second to last in the AL in walks this year.
Sanders’s .777 OPS is just the 12th best among AL right fielders. He signed a two-year, $10MM deal with the Royals last offseason. He’d probably play left field if he returned to St. Louis. As a group, the Cardinals’ left fielders have hit just .243/.305/.321 with one home run. At the least, Sanders would provide a power threat.
The Cardinals will likely settle for a second tier outfielder in the trade market, as I’m told Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright are being slotted into the 2007 rotation.
Cards Interested In Victor Diaz
Walt Jocketty and the Cardinals are currently mulling over various options to add an outfield bat, and one player who is definitely on the radar is Victor Diaz.
The 24 year-old Diaz had a fine year in 2005 between Triple A and the Majors. However, after losing the Mets’ right field battle to Xavier Nady this year Diaz has become the odd man out. He’s stumbled to a .245/.310/.371 line in Triple A and his stock is at an all-time low. Still, Diaz has shown 25 HR power and was projected to hit .265/.323/.469 for the Mets by Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system.
New York doesn’t have much use for Diaz, and one player they like is 24 year-old righthander Mark Worrell in the Cardinals’ system. Worrell uses an unorthodox, sometimes sidearm delivery to retire hitters. He did a fine job as a closer in A ball last year, but the jump to Double A hasn’t been so kind. Worrell has 15 saves and a 1.28 WHIP, but he also owns a 5.27 ERA. Walks and home runs have been a problem.
It’s a swap that makes sense – a couple of minor leaguers who have not met expectations this year. My Mets source tells me that discussions are ongoing.
Kaz Matsui Sent To Rockies
The Mets finally decided to bite the bullet and eat Kaz Matsui‘s awful contract, sending him to the Rockies. The best they could do for him was Eli Marrero, a 32 year-old journeyman who plays catcher, first base, and outfield.
In searching for positives about bringing in Marrero, I must note his solid .467 slugging percentage in 60 at-bats this year. Marrero once hit 18 HR in less than 400 at-bats (2002 Cardinals) so he does provide a little right-handed pop off the bench.
Matsui has agreed to the deal and will report to Triple A for a little while. The Rockies probably want him to prepare as a shortstop, a position he hasn’t played since 2004. Matsui posted a woeful .504 OPS in 130 at-bats this year, which is actually worse than Clint Barmes‘s .558 mark. There’s at least some hope that the 27 year-old Barmes can snap out of it and at least hit like a league average shortstop. Still, this isn’t a gamble for Colorado since the Mets are paying Matsui’s $8MM salary.
Cliff Floyd To Tigers?
John Delcos, writer for The Journal News, has a Cliff Floyd rumor that’s been making the rounds. The rumor seems more on the speculative side; I’m not sure that Delcos is suggesting that the Tigers have asked about Floyd specifically.
Instead, Delcos’s friend may have just been curious about the Mets’ interest, which apparently is slim. But let’s see which Tiger arms could perhaps be enough to acquire Floyd, an impending free agent. Floyd had a very rough start but has hit .267/.383/.489 in May – pretty close to career norms.
Humberto Sanchez and Jordan Tata come to mind as two very marketable commodities for GM Dave Dombrowski. Both are close to Major League ready and bring low 90s heat. Sanchez has a 1.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 10 Double A starts this season. Tata handled himself capably in a brief Major League stint this season, and is back to starting games in Triple A.
Zito On Mets’ 40 Man Roster…Sort Of
Just got word from a loyal emailer:
"Was driving back from a party last night around 1:20AM and WFAN in NY had callers saying that Barry Zito‘s name was on the Mets roster over at Mets.com. His name was in place of Alay Soler. Sure enough, WFAN had checked it out and they confirmed that it was the case."
No, this probably isn’t an early sign that the Mets have completed a Zito for Milledge and Soler trade. Most likely it was just a webmaster getting crazy in the way that only a webmaster can.
On the other hand, if my memory serves me correct, the person in charge of Cubs.com accidentally posted Dusty Baker as the team’s manager before his hiring was made public. So you never know.
El Duque Swapped For Julio
In a surprising move, the Diamondbacks sent starter Orlando Hernandez to the Mets for reliever Jorge Julio. El Duque, age 36-40ish, has a 6.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through his first nine starts this year. 27 year-old righty Julio had a 5.06 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the Mets.
Hernandez will be paid $4.5MM this season and doesn’t figure to pick up his incentives for Comeback Player of the Year or an All-Star Game. Julio makes about $2.5MM and has yet to reach free agency. Hernandez was projected to add about 1.8 wins in 122 innings while Julio’s projection called for 1.5 wins in 58 innings (3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Perhaps D’Backs pitching coach Bryan Price thinks he can limit Julio’s largest flaw, his tendency to allow home runs. He’d better figure something out because Chase Field boosts homers for lefties by 18% (Shea suppressed them by 6%). The only silver lining in Julio’s 2006 performance is that he’s managed to whiff 33 hitters in just over 21 innings. The 13.92 K/9 is the best in the game among pitchers with 20 innings.
El Duque had three quality starts in nine tries for Arizona. Last year for the White Sox, 45% of his starts were quality efforts. While he’s an improvement over Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez, the difference may be marginal. PECOTA projected Gonzalez at a 5.71 ERA, Lima at 5.21, and Hernandez at 5.17. Who knows, though, maybe El Duque will rise to the occasion on the big stage and give the Mets 100 innings of league average ball. And of course he could be an asset should the Mets make the playoffs.
I can see the reasoning here for both sides. The Mets fill their starter vacancy at a low cost and value Hernandez higher than most teams. El Duque loves New York and Minaya loves El Duque. Minaya scouted Hernandez and considers him a warrior. On the other hand, the D’Backs get a reliever who still at least has potential to be dominant. Julio is under contract for a couple more years and adds depth to an already decent Arizona pen. Perhaps Josh Byrnes thought Hernandez’s value would only continue to decrease as the season wore on.
It will be interesting to see if the Mets continue their pursuit of Orlando’s half-brother, Livan Hernandez.
Latest Mets Buzz
Haven’t heard from my Mets source in a while, but he checked in this morning with some good info.
He tells me that the Mets are not interested in trading Lastings Milledge or Aaron Heilman in a Barry Zito deal. The Mets aren’t a team to overpay for 2-3 months of Zito given his impending free agency. In addition, the Wilpons are sensitive about the Scott Kazmir trade (7-2, 2.39 ERA) and won’t let history repeat itself.
On the other hand, if the Mets had to include Milledge and another top prospect (Alay Soler?) to acquire Dontrelle Willis, they’d jump at the chance. Willis could anchor the rotation for many years in front of Mike Pelfrey.
20 year-old outfielder Carlos Gomez is a scout favorite despite his current .219/.290/.318 line at Double A so far. The Mets love the kid, but he could be had if it meant acquiring an ace-caliber pitcher like Jason Schmidt without parting with Milledge.
Anderson Hernandez, Michael Abreu, Evan Maclane, Heath Bell, and Victor Diaz are all readily available trading chips if the Mets decide not to shoot for the stars.
Nats Want Milledge for Livan
I find it almost comical that Jim Bowden would demand Lastings Milledge in a trade for Livan Hernandez. I know he wants to save his job with the next Scott Kazmir deal, but c’mon now. The Mets aren’t that desperate, are they?
Hernandez has an ERA over 6 and is only 31 years old in theory. He makes $8MM this year and $7MM the next. Whether or not Milledge is worthy of all the hype, the Mets could do a lot better. I still think Livan will come around and could help the Mets, but at that price they need look at internal candidates instead.
Milledge is at .284/.440/.447 in Triple A at age 21. The 17% walk rate is an excellent development, and you have to figure the 20 HR power will come with time.
The Nationals do need to find a way to stock up one of baseball’s worst farm systems. Hernandez, Jose Guillen, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, and Brian Schneider should keep the hot stove boiling all summer.
Mets Rotation Concerns
Reader Brian M. recently asked:
"Where do the Mets turn now that Victor Zambrano is out for the year? Bannister will be back in week or so, but with Maine also being placed on the DL, and Lima getting slammed today, the Mets need one more arm. Do they turn to Heilman (the obvious choice, but Mets brass are too stubborn to take him out of the ‘pen)? Time to search free agency? Perhaps time to trade Victor Diaz? What should they do, and what do you think they will do?"
Good question, Brian. The Mets currently have a rotation of Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Steve Trachsel, and Brian Bannister. Bannister is eligible to come off the DL on May 12th, but his actual return date is uncertain. John Maine can return on May 18th, which is also no lock.
Today marked the next round of Lima Time, and it wasn’t pretty. He’ll probably remain in the rotation anyway until Bannister gets back. For the next few weeks, I expect the Mets to pair Lima with their last remaining option from the Norfolk rotation: Jeremi Gonzalez. Gonzalez will probably get two or three starts this month for the Mets; he has a 3.03 ERA through six Triple A starts this year. Jason Scobie is a longshot; he’s performing poorly so far and is more of a minor league lifer.
Yusaku Iriki, never a great option, will be out until June with a steroid suspension. With just two Double A starts under his belt, promoting Mike Pelfrey right now could be a tad risky for one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Jeremi Gonzalez is a fine fifth starter for the rest of May, and I’m not sure he’ll do much worse than Pelfrey would. With Billy Wagner‘s finger in doubt, the bullpen cannot afford to lose Aaron Heilman.
Come June and beyond, a fifth starter of Gonzalez/Lima/Maine won’t cut it. Bannister profiles as a fifth starter himself, and Trachsel something of a fourth. The Mets are going to be looking for a solid #3 type. Both Pelfrey and Alay Soler have the goods, but are they ready for The Show?
Soler is a 26 year-old Cuban defector who breezed through Single A and has had one good start at Double A so far. Baseball America says he has two plus pitches and big-game experience, so he may be closer than some people realize. Back in 2003, the Yankees gave Jose Contreras just six starts in the minors before promoting him. Contreras went 7-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for the big club that year, posting the highest strikeout rate of his career. Soler could provide a similar shot in the arm in mid-June, and I’d probably promote him over Pelfrey.
Omar Minaya will be prowling the trade market regardless. If the Cubs are out of it by July, Greg Maddux might make a good fit. Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito will also have the rumor mill churning in a few months. If Minaya decides to bring in more of a #4 type, he can make a play for Joel Pineiro or Gil Meche from Seattle, maybe Kip Wells from the Pirates if he’s healthy.
Here’s the problem: Lastings Milledge is tearing up Triple A, and he is the one trading chip the Mets have left that can bring a #2-3 starter. I do not expect the Mets to trade him. Young outfield prospect Carlos Gomez has been overmatched at Double A so far, and Victor Diaz needs to start hitting to get his stock up. Double A first baseman Brett Harper could be part of a package, as could Triple A 2B Jeff Keppinger. 17 year-old outfielder Fernando Martinez would be a nice prize for a team like the Pirates or Mariners and is the best prospect the Mets can offer not named Milledge.
To review: Omar’s options are A)Soler/Pelfrey, B)trade Milledge for a true #2-3, or C)get a second-tier guy for Diaz and a few other mid-level prospects.
If it were up to me? I’d try everything under the sun to get Schmidt from Brian Sabean without including Milledge, starting now. In the meantime I would promote Soler in June and give him a good 5-7 starts. If Soler does well, I’d stand pat at the deadline knowing that I could still use Pelfrey if necessary. If Soler bombed, I would offer Fernando Martinez and/or Victor Diaz to get the best available starter. This is what I expect Minaya to do as well, perhaps settling for a Diaz/Pineiro swap when nothing reasonable comes along.
One last aggressive option up for debate: would Omar give up Milledge to acquire Dontrelle Willis at the deadline?
Cubs Shopping Maddux?
A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball. Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report. According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped. Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals.
The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent. My opinion from a couple of weeks ago: he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak. Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll. Doesn’t seem to compute. And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards. I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.