Miscellaneous Rumors
There are a few trade-related nuggets in the newspapers today, but I don’t expect anything major to go down until June.
The Reds are trying to find a taker for Tony Womack, who has thankfully been pushed out of their infield and demoted. That is what we call a million dollar mistake. I guess Brandon Phillips makes up for it, at least until his bat runs cold.
Jay Payton and his agent are being vocal about finding him his 500 ABs with another team if necessary. The best fit I can find is the Cardinals.
The Yanks plan on declining Mike Mussina‘s option and re-signing him to a more reasonable deal. The decline is a no-brainer at $17MM, but I’m just remembering what happened with Jon Lieber. New York had some goodwill there after paying Lieber to rehab, but he still jumped ship after seeing the market. This is a different situation given Mussina’s tenure, and he has said he wants to stay put. I’m just saying, it’s not a 100% lock.
Howie Kendrick got the call, but it took an injury, and not a trade, of Maicer Izturis. My guess is that Izturis will spend at least a month on the shelf and that Kendrick will stick for the rest of the season. If Kendrick can hit as expected between pinch-hitting, DHing, and spot starting at 2B/3B, there will be plenty of interest for Adam Kennedy in the coming months. Kennedy is a 3-4 win guy who could really help the Mets or Cardinals for half a season.
Marlins Made Crazy Offer To Mets
According to Jon Heyman, the Fish offered Dontrelle Willis to the Mets for David Wright this spring. Sounds like something out of a fantasy league.
Baseball Prospectus projects Wright to be with about ten more wins than Willis over the next five seasons. I believe Heyman here. His report definitely calls Jeffrey Loria’s denials into question. Sounds like the Fish are shooting for the moon with Willis, but he really does seem to be available.
What do you think of a Willis for Chase Utley deal? Who wins, and why wouldn’t it work?
Gotham Baseball’s Zito Rumor
Gotham Baseball’s Executive Editor, Mark Healey, had some informed speculation on Monday about a possible trade of Barry Zito to the Mets for Lastings Milledge and Brian Bannister. I figured I’d pass it along, as these guys seem to have some good front office type sources.
Here are some highlights quoted from Healey from the thread:
"Call me nuts…but I still think something is happening here and will in the next couple of days…
Mike and I talk to scouts, front office people every week, sometimes daily….mostly to check on things, etc…
Before and after our respective trips to ST…we both did pre-work and post-work…
When people start getting tight-lipped, and strange things like Milledge and Bannister staying in Major League camp longer than they were supposed to be — my antenna goes up.
However, be that as it may, this thread was specualtion…if I had any corroboration, it’d be in the Rumor Mill.
[posted today] About five minutes after I posted the above I got a phone call from my West Coast guy saying that My speculation "might not be far off the mark" but wouldn’t elaborate…saying to check on what Oakland GM Billy Beane has been up to…
Hmmm…seems Billy traded the immortal Juan Cruz to the D’Backs for Brad Halsey (a 25 year old left-hander)…
Another starter, one less reliever for the Oaks?
The plot thickens…"
Graffanino to Mets?
Did you know that Baseball America scouts and ranks 12 year-olds? That’s kind of weird. I learned this after reading that Austin Jackson, a Yankees outfield prospect, ranked at the top of his age group when he was 12. They should’ve been scouting my age 11 season. I was the leadoff hitter for the Foxes and posted an OBP over .500. I could lay a mean drag bunt despite well below-average speed to first base. The third baseman knew it was coming but still couldn’t throw me out. But even then, my makeup was in question with all the rampant womanizing. My vices got the best of me and I was out of baseball by age 15.
On to the trade rumor. A source has given me some more info on the Mets’ second base situation.
The Alfonso Soriano rumors have died down now that he’s decided to give left field a try. Good for him. The Mets see Jeff Keppinger as more of a utility man, and they are a little wary of throwing Anderson Hernandez to the wolves without a little more seasoning in the minors. Kaz Matsui‘s injury might keep him out more than a few weeks, perhaps as long as two months. Enter Tony Graffanino, a Minaya favorite.
If Boston’s demands drop a bit, the teams might be able to strike a deal. The Mets might be willing to part with one of the following three pitchers. The following info is from Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook. Thought you might like a little background.
Matt Lindstrom is a 26 year-old right-handed reliever with "the most explosive arm in the system." His heater is the best among Mets’ minor leaguers, occasionally touching 100mph. How come this dude is still in Double A then? He’s two years behind because of a Mormon mission. The problems: his fastball is straight, he doesn’t have a secondary pitch, and he has some mechanical issues. He didn’t have a great 2005 season and is now ranked as the 26th best Mets prospect after a #10 ranking the year before.
Henry Owens is ranked 29th in the system and was a Triple A Rule 5 pick. The former catcher has good heat but questionable breaking stuff…he’s a reliever entering Double A and will turn 27 soon. He and Lindstrom are the two best relievers in the Mets’ system according to BA.
Jason Scobie led the Mets’ minor leagues with 15 wins in 2005. He’s entering his age 28 season, and seems to have a handle on Triple A despite a strikeout rate barely above 5 K.9. He’s 8th among starters on the Mets’ minor league depth chart, so he’s not exactly a hot commodity.
Latest Mets/Soriano Rumor
A source of mine reports some info concerning the Mets’ interest in Alfonso Soriano:
The Mets do want Soriano, but they’ll only make a deal if the Nats will accept Kaz Matsui. The Nats would use Matsui at shortstop and would also receive Victor Diaz.
Matsui will be out until mid-April with a sprained knee ligament. He last played shortstop in 2004, appearing in 110 games there.
This morning, Soriano plans to announce whether he’s willing to play left field for the Nationals. The fact that he’s even considering it leads me to believe that he will play out there. Soriano refused to play LF on Monday and would likely be placed on the disqualified list if he refuses again. He’d lose his salary and right to become a free agent after 2006 in that case. I’m pretty sure his agent is going to advise that he gives in. Still, he may still be a trade candidate if he’s enormously unhappy with the Nationals.
Another note from the MLB.com article: it looks like Jon Daniels pulled one over on Jim Bowden.
"Texas denied Washington permission to talk to Soriano about a switch from second base to left field until the players took their physicals and the trade was official."
Diaz may start the season in Triple A, as Xavier Nady is the heavy favorite for right field for the Mets.
Jason Marquis for Victor Diaz?
Just got word from my main Mets source with all sorts of good info.
With Pedro’s status a question mark at this point, Omar Minaya would like to add a proven veteran starting pitcher to the middle of the rotation. The Mets first preference is Jason Marquis (a New York native, for what it’s worth). They’ve offered a package beginning with Victor Diaz to entice Walt Jocketty. Diaz would probably be an upgrade over the Cards’ current left field options. The Mets aren’t thrilled with Diaz’s defense and would be content to try Xavier Nady in right field.
Other options include two Boston starters. The Mets would love to bring Matt Clement back to the NL, but they don’t want to give up a lot to get him and are wary of his salary. Bronson Arroyo‘s name has also come up.
The White Sox could also be a factor if they decide to part with Jose Contreras.
Keep an eye this spring on the right field battle, Pedro’s toe, and the 4th-5th starter spots in the rotation. A spring trade is a good possibility.
The Soriano thing has pretty much been debunked; the Mets will see where Kaz Matsui takes them and then try Anderson Hernandez as needed.
Unfounded Soriano Mets Rumor
Alright, here’s a new one. I can’t really verify the source, but it still seems ripe for discussion.
Word is that the Mets could send Xavier Nady, John Maine, and Jeff Keppinger to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano, Bill Bray, and Jason Bergmann. Let’s discuss.
Could the Mets do without Nady? Absolutely. Wright doesn’t need much time off, and Franco can spell Delgado. I’m of the opinion that Victor Diaz does not need a platoon partner in right field. Nady would be more useful for Washington. He could handle right field for three months while Jose Guillen is out, and Matt LeCroy could spend more time backing up Brian Schneider than Nick Johnson. Plus, Nady could take over first base in 2007 if Johnson leaves via free agency.
I’m not sure that John Maine figures into the Mets’ rotation plans. He didn’t make their depth chart, which goes eight-deep on starting pitchers. Maine already has Triple A experience and could probably manage a mid-4 ERA pitching half his games in RFK. That’d be a more adequate replacement for Brian Lawrence than some sort of Drese/Rauch experiment.
Jeff Keppinger has most certainly been passed by Anderson Hernandez on the Mets’ 2B depth chart, and so the Mets wouldn’t really need him even if they let Soriano walk after 2006. Keppinger is probably best served as a utility man anyway, and he’d get a decent opportunity backing up Jose Vidro. Brendan Harris might already fill this role for the Nats, but he’s no sure thing.
To recap: the Nationals would receive a borderline backup in Nady, a back-rotation starter in Maine, and a utility infielder in Keppinger. It’s quantity over quality, but Bowden is between a rock and a hard place here with Soriano.
Speaking of which, Soriano would fit nicely into the Latino core Omar Minaya is building. I don’t know whether the Mets would try to keep him long-term, but even a player with his flaws is a good pickup for the cost outlined here.
College product Bill Bray isn’t too far off from being a Major League setup man. I’m not so sure Bowden would need to give him up in this deal. It seems to tip the scales too far towards the Mets.
Likewise with Bergmann, who had a nice year last year and figured to slot into the Nats’ big league bullpen. That’s two valuable relievers going to New York, and it seems like too much.
Admittedly the Nationals are giving up a lot of value for some questionable prospects. On the other hand, Bowden’s trade for Soriano is Exhibit A that he is capable of making trades that do not favor the his team at all.
Choices Narrowing For Weaver
Back on January 12th, we were able to reason our way towards determining six possible suitors for Jeff Weaver. Here was the list:
"In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels."
Since then, the Orioles traded for Kris Benson and the Cubs signed a much cheaper option in Wade Miller. The remaining four can be re-ranked as Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Astros. You can almost cross Houston off the list; there hasn’t been talk of them pursuing Weaver as Jose Contreras remains high on their wish list.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels may offer Weaver a one year contract with an option for 2007. It’d be wise for the Angels to lock in the innings eater after losing Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd, who combined for 381 innings in 2005.
I’d put the Angels chances of signing Weaver at 75%. The Mets really aren’t looking to take on Weaver; he may not perform under the spotlight again and isn’t significantly better than Benson (he’s maybe about one win better). The Cards would be mad to add Weaver to a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson/Anthony Reyes. The club is wavering on starting Reyes, and he’s already better than Weaver. Weaver is barely an improvement over Marquis, so dealing him and signing Weaver would be a curious decision. I suppose it could happen if the right outfield bat came along in return for Marquis though.
Mets Interested In Wells?
Spoke with my Mets guy this morning. He had plenty of info to pass along.
First, he said that any recent rumors going around are "bogus." Plenty of other websites have added to that sentiment.
He also mentioned that Minaya wants to add a starter. That’s fairly well known, but he also said that the Mets may try to make a move on David Wells if nothing better comes along before spring training. It’s the first I’d heard of that.
He said the Mets are convinced that Anderson Hernandez is the answer at second base for 2006, and that Jeff Keppinger could be moved for pitching if he has a good spring. No doubt the Mets would love to dump Kaz Matsui if someone would take even half his salary.
Latest Red Sox Rumor – Clement, Vidro, Milledge
Several emailers have alerted me to a post made over at Sons of Sam Horn late last night. A respected poster lays out this scenario:
Red Sox trade Matt Clement and Alex Cora
Nationals trade Jose Vidro and Jay Bergmann
Mets trade Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady (with some chance of Victor Diaz instead of Milledge)
Red Sox receive Milledge and Nady
Nationals receive Clement and Cora plus cash if Clement pitches over 150 innings
Mets receive Vidro and Bergmann plus a PTNBL from either Nats or Sox depending on Vidro’s health. (Livan Hernandez could end up with the Mets as well)
I paraphrased a few things but this is all from the post. I haven’t heard anything about these players lately, but I thought the rumor would make for interesting discussion. My thoughts:
From the Red Sox point of view, it’s either a steal or a salary dump. It’d be a steal if Milledge were indeed the centerpiece. However, there are some who believe Milledge is not even a top 100 prospect. Don’t gasp, Mets fans – David Luciani knows what he’s talking about and still respects Milledge.
If the Red Sox are acquiring Diaz and Nady for Clement, I can’t see a big improvement to their club for 2006. It would have to be motivated by the $19MM owed to Clement over the next two seasons, but the Red Sox aren’t having budget problems so it doesn’t make a lot of sense. The issue of whether the Sox have starting pitching depth from which to deal has been debated endlessly; it depends on how you evaluate their young guys.
The Nationals wouldn’t be surrendering much to get Clement. I’ve been told Vidro’s health is still questionable, and he makes $23MM over the next three seasons. The team would love to get out from under that contract. 24 year-old Bergmann looks like a decent enough reliever, but not a top tier prospect. The Nationals would definitely have to bump someone out of the rotation to give Clement a spot. They are currently six deep with Tony Armas, Ryan Drese, Livan Hernandez, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz, and John Patterson.
The deal makes the least amount of sense for the Mets. It’s been stated repeatedly that the team wants to hold onto Milledge, and that is thought to be the only reason they haven’t traded for Barry Zito. So the addition of Vidro and his albatross contract doesn’t equate here. Add Livan Hernandez and you might have something, but the 30 year-old may not be ace material anymore after posting a 1.43 WHIP in 2005.