NL Notes: Arrieta, Mets, Strasburg
Let's take a quick look at some notes from the National League …
- Recent Cubs trade acquisition Jake Arrieta is struggling with consistency even while flashing the potential to be a dominant starter, writes Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Of course, as MLBTR's Zach Links noted back when he was shipped to Chicago, Arrieta was a nice buy-low, change-of-scenery candidate precisely because of his historical inability to harness his stuff.
- Looking forward to the club's right field opening in 2014, the Mets probably lack the top-end young bat that would be necessary to draw Giancarlo Stanton away from the Marlins, writes ESPNNewYork.com's Mark Simon. (Simon notes that catcher Travis d'Arnaud could fit the bill, but his struggles at the MLB level lower his value and he fills an obvious need for his current club.) Looking elsewhere, Simon tabs Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, and recent Met Marlon Byrd as potential targets.
- Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had his start skipped today after experiencing soreness in his right forearm, reports Tom Schad of MLB.com. Though manager Davey Johnson said that a medical examination revealed nothing of concern, the team is understandably proceeding with caution, even as it tries to hang on to the fringes of the Wild Card race. At this point, Strasburg has set himself up for a nice arbitration payday regardless of what happens over his remaining starts. He will enter the process for the first time with a career 2.95 ERA over 421 1/3 innings pitched, with 10.6 K/9 against just 2.5 BB/9, although his relatively low inning totals (he is at a career-high 170) and lack of wins this year (he has just seven) could limit his earning potential somewhat.
Managerial Notes: Girardi, Collins, Nationals
We've already seen one managerial change recently, with the firing of Charlie Manuel in favor of Ryne Sandberg. Elsewhere in the league, Davey Johnson is set to retire, and people have speculated frequently on the situations of Mike Scioscia and Ron Gardenhire. Here's a look at some more of the managerial situations around the league that will be heavily discussed this offseason…
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that Joe Girardi will be a hot free agent this offseason and will likely be able to choose his destination if he wishes. Girardi could return to the Yankees, or seeing the opportunity to jump to his hometown, could pursue an opportunity with the Cubs even though Dale Sveum is still under contract. He could also look to fill Johnson's role in Washington — a position for which he applied in 2006. Within his piece, Rosenthal reports that Girardi's expiring three-year contract was worth a total of $9MM.
- One scout who spoke with Andy Martino of the New York Daily News offered high praise for the job Mets manager Terry Collins has done without much talent on his roster. "I think Terry has done a tremendous job," said the scout. "That roster is not good, but they’re obviously still playing hard for him. That’s not an easy thing to do as a manager." It is widely expected that Collins will be back with the team in 2014.
- The success the Nationals have shown in the past month makes inheriting Johnson's position "a dream job for some lucky baseball man who gets to succeed [him]," writes Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams is the name most frequently heard, but the Nationals own bench coach, Randy Knorr, is receiving increasing support internally, according to Knobler.
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Stanton, Collins, A-Rod
For the Red Sox, 2013 has increasingly taken on the feel of a triumphant return to glory. Now enjoying a seemingly insurmountable division lead, the Sox have engineered one of the greatest season-to-season turnarounds ever. Jonah Keri of Grantland looks back on each of the key free agent signings made by GM Ben Cherington, arguing that the team's "passel of midlevel free agents" were hardly the overpays that they were labeled. Here's more from around baseball..
- The Phillies are still interested in Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says that he's tried to trade for him "at least ten times," writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Unfortunately for the Phils, Marlins president Larry Beinfest has rebuffed them each time and made it clear that they're not moving him.
- A Mets source told Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) that manager Terry Collins isn't being evaluated by wins and losses in September. "There's different criteria at different times of the year," the offical said.
- Alex Rodriguez's attorneys fear that the MLBPA won't fight hard for their client as he fights a 211-game ban, writes Michael O'Keeffe of the New York Daily News. Sources say that the relationship between team A-Rod and the union is rather uneasy at this point.
- Twins pitcher Mike Pelfrey needs 10.2 innings to reach a $100K bonus and manager Ron Gardenhire won't get in his way as he says that he never lets bonuses affect his decisions, tweets Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.
- Regardless of his light-hitting, Brendan Ryan left his mark on Mariners baseball, writes Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. The shortstop was traded to the Yankees earlier this week for a player to be named later.
- Three years after signing Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126MM deal, Nationals principal owner Mark Lerner says that he's still pleased about the deal, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Mets Rumors: Choo, Ellsbury, Tejada, Harvey
Yesterday it was reported that the Mets are likely to target Shin-Soo Choo as a free agent this offseason. Choo projects as one of the top names available and would serve as a long-term upgrade in right field, should the Mets be able to entice him more than the host of other suitors Choo figures to have. Here's more on Choo and other Mets-related issues…
- General manager Sandy Alderson told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that he "certainly [hasn't] ruled out a big-ticket item" on the free agent market this winter, though he didn't mention Choo by name. One Mets-connected person told Heyman, however, that Choo "fits the bill" in terms of what the team is looking for.
- Also in that piece, Heyman adds that Jacoby Ellsbury isn't likely to be a prime target for the Mets because they're pleased with the emergence of Juan Lagares in center. While Lagares' .264/.301/.385 batting line has hardly set the world on fire, he's been worth three wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, due to his incredible center field defense.
- Finally from Heyman's article, one top Mets executive expressed relief that the team didn't end up signing Michael Bourn last offseason. The Mets, of course, pursued Bourn heavily and lobbied to be able to keep their No. 11 overall pick in signing him, but Cleveland swooped in with a four-year, $48MM offer and landed the speedster.
- Ruben Tejada's play for the remainder of the season rest is important, because it might mean one less position that needs to be filled this winter, writes Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog. Yesterday, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com wrote that the Mets are likely to explore external options this winter and they may even shop Tejada.
- Matt Harvey told reporters, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, that he's optimistic about his chances to avoid Tommy John surgery. Harvey is slated to receive a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews next week, after which Andrews will confer with Dr. David Altchek on the best course of action for the Mets ace.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
East Notes: Ellsbury, Red Sox, Tejada, Mets, Yankees
Earlier today, Tim Dierkes released his list of the top 34 free agent starting pitchers for this offseason. Yankees hurler Hiroki Kuroda comes in at No. 4 on the list, despite his age (39 in February) and a small streak of bad starts in August. In total, it has been another strong year for the veteran, who owns a 2.99 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Here's more out of the AL and NL East..
- Red Sox outfielder and free-agent-to-be Jacoby Ellsbury didn't exacerbate his foot fracture by playing last week, a baseball source told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Ellsbury will be in a walking boot for another few days and will rejoin the Red Sox on Friday at Fenway Park. He'll also be reexamined by doctors before he resumes physical activity.
- It seems likely that the Mets will explore external shortstop options as an alternative to Ruben Tejada and he could even be traded this winter, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Tejeada will be first-time arbitration eligible with a salary less than $1MM, so he won't be cost prohibitive as a backup middle infielder if a more accomplished shortstop is brought in.
- The Yankees' addition of Mike Zagurski signals concern over Boone Logan's continued elbow troubles, writes Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger.
NL East Notes: Braves, Tejada, Parnell, Galvis
Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro and David Carpenter exemplify the Braves' knack for getting the most out of the "free talent" market (players claimed off waivers or signed as minor league free agents), writes ESPN's Keith Law in his latest Insider piece. Law writes that the Braves have succeeded with tight payrolls in recent years by excelling in this area, and he also looks at the next wave of "free-talent" players on the horizon for the Braves. Here's more out of the NL East…
- Ruben Tejada is expected to join the Mets today as a September callup, which will leave him one day shy of accumulating his third full year of MLB service time, writes ESPN New York's Adam Rubin. Rubin reported yesterday that the Mets would likely delay Tejada's promotion for that purpose, as it will keep Tejada from reaching free agency for an additional year.
- Mets closer Bobby Parnell will undergo surgery to repair the herniated disk in his neck, manager Terry Collins told reporters, including Brian Lewis of the New York Post. Collins said that Parnell "should" be ready for Spring Training but would make no promises on that front. I'd imagine that any uncertainty surrounding Parnell would only further what should be an interesting offseason for the Mets on the bullpen front, with so many free agents in their 2013 relief corps.
- The presence of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley through at least the 2014 season (and likely the 2015 campaign due to Rollins' easily attainable vesting option) makes a utility role the most realistic option for Freddy Galvis if he's to remain with the Phillies long-term, writes Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. Interim manager Ryne Sandberg feels that Galvis fits the mold of a strong bench player due to his defensive capabilities and "consistent progress and work with his batting."
Mets Expected To Target Choo In Offseason
It's no secret that the Mets are willing to spend this winter, and Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports that indications from rival executives and a pair Mets officials are that the team will be very interested in Shin-Soo Choo.
One Mets official told Martino, however, that GM Sandy Alderson and his staff aren't particularly interested in entering an aggressive bidding war over the 31-year-old Scott Boras client. Such a bidding war could end up being necessary to acquire Choo's services, given Boras' history and Choo's solid numbers.
While one big knock on Choo is his susceptibility to left-handed pitching — he's hitting just .211 against southpaws with a .247 slugging percentage — he's still managed a .350 OBP against same-handed pitchers and sports an overall batting line of .291/.425/.472 with 20 homers and 17 stolen bases.
The Mets would shift Choo back to right field if they were to sign him, Martino reports, due to Juan Lagares' outstanding defense in center field. That's the right call, as Choo grades out as the worst defensive center fielder in baseball, among qualified players, according to both UZR and The Fielding Bible. Those same metrics suggested that Choo was poor in right field in 2012 as well, but historically he's been a serviceable glove in right. Martino adds that Eric Young would likely shift to a fourth outfielder role and notes that the team would like to see Young at second base more as well.
Choo, who ranked fifth on the most recent edition of Tim Dierkes' Free Agent Power Rankings, will also reportedly be pursued by the Cubs this winter. Back in May, Reds GM Walt Jocketty very candidly said that the Reds would love to be able to re-sign Choo but would be hard-pressed to make such a deal work from a financial standpoint.
Mets Won’t Non-Tender Ike Davis
There's still plenty of doubt about Ike Davis' future in Queens, but the Mets aren't willing to lose him for nothing. There is no consideration being given to the idea of non-tendering the first baseman in December, team insiders tell Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
With Lucas Duda and the shaky Davis both in the fold, a decision has to be made regarding the club's plan at first base, so the possibility of trading Davis remains. However, club officials believe that Davis will not be cost prohibitive in 2014 in a way that would force them to cut him loose. Davis, 26, earned $3.125MM this season as a first-year arbitration eligible player.
It's extremely rare for a player’s salary to decrease during their arbitration years, but the Mets appear to think they may have a case for a salary reduction if it ever got to a hearing, Rubin writes. A player could receive as much as a 20% cut from his previous year’s salary either through an arbitration hearing or a pre-hearing settlement, leaving Davis' floor to be $2.5MM for 2014.
Rubin found only a handful of salary cuts in arbitration over the years with the most recent one taking place in 1993. Royals pitcher Aaron Crow agreed to a 20% pay cut before the 2013 season, but that was an unusual case in which he was not yet arbitration eligible and his 2012 salary had been worked out when he was drafted No. 12 overall three years earlier.
Even if Davis gets a salary similar to his $3.125MM pay this year, it won't be a major impediment for the Mets, especially when considering the amount of money they have coming off of the books.
Mets Could Trade Frank Francisco
Frank Francisco made his season debut with the Mets yesterday, pitching two-thirds of an inning and issuing a walk in a scoreless appearance. A free agent at season's end, Francisco may not even close out the year with the Mets, as one team official told Adam Rubin of ESPN New York that it's "certainly possible" that the Mets will trade Francisco soon.
According to Rubin, the Mets weren't pleased with what they perceived to be a lack of urgency on Francisco's part to get back to the Major Leagues. Francisco is earning $6.5MM in the second season of a two-year, $12MM contract he signed to be the team's closer. He's been disappointing in New York, to say the least, having pitched to a 5.44 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in just 43 innings of work. Since joining the Mets, Francisco has missed time due to an oblique strain, right elbow tendonitis and recovery from surgery to remove bone spurs from that same elbow.
Interested parties could look at Francisco's track record and hope that he's a low-cost upgrade if he's back to full health. Prior to signing with the Mets, Francisco had compiled a 3.54 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 49 saves from 2008-11. He also dominated on his minor league rehab assignment, yielding just one run on eight hits and three walks with 14 strikeouts over 12 innings across three levels.
The Mets would be happy to simply receive some relief on the $746K remaining on his salary, writes Rubin. Of course, an acquiring team wouldn't be able to include Francisco on its postseason roster, but he could still play a role in helping a team get to the playoffs. Such acquisitions aren't particularly common, but the situation wouldn't be too dissimilar from the Rockies' 2010 acquisition of Octavio Dotel. Rubin speculates that the Yankees could be a fit for Francisco.
NL East Notes: Bethancourt, Tejada, Zimmerman
The Braves will promote top prospect Christian Bethancourt today, according to Tom Hart of FOX Sports in Atlanta (Twitter link). The 22-year-old catcher hit .277/.305/.436 at Double-A Mississippi this season. While those numbers don't look tremendously impressive, Bethancourt turned it on after a slow start, batting .300/.339/.521 with 11 homers from June 13 on. He currently ranks as the Braves' No. 3 prospect and the fifth-best catching prospect in baseball in the eyes of MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. Here's more on Bethancourt and the rest of the NL East…
- MLB.com's Mark Bowman tweets that Bethancourt's promotion will allow him to get acquainted with the Majors, which is a good thing, as it's likely that he or Evan Gattis will be the Braves' starting catcher in 2014. In doing so, Bowman implies that Brian McCann is likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. That thought has been echoed by others in recent weeks, including David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
- The Mets will stall Ruben Tejada's promotion back to the Majors, writes Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, and in doing so, they will delay his free agency until after the 2017 season instead of the 2016 season. Tejada hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball of late, as he's batted just .275/.324/.364 from July through Sept. 2 at Triple-A Las Vegas — one of the most hitter-friendly environments in all of professional baseball.
- Ryan Zimmerman has regained confidence in his throwing and believes he can continue to play third base for the Nationals, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Zimmerman concedes that he doubted his future at the hot corner earlier in the season. He tells Kilgore that his shoulder injuries in 2012 wore his right arm down to the point where he couldn't lift it above his head, causing him to develop bad throwing habits. He had surgery to repair the shoulder last October, but breaking those poor habits and rebuilding the strength in his arm has been a slow process, Zimmerman says. Ultimately, the decision on when to move to first won't be Zimmerman's, Kilgore writes. The team could even move Adam LaRoche this winter and make the switch in 2014.