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AL East Notes: Girardi, Feldman, Hammel, McLouth, Jays

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The Rays and Rangers will square off in a one-game playoff to determine the second American League Wild Card team tonight and finalize the postseason picture. Should the Rays come up short, it will mark the first time since 2006 in which the AL East has not been represented by two teams in the postseason (the Yankees, Twins, Tigers and A's were playoff teams that year). Here's more on the AL East…

  • There has been increasing speculation about whether or not Yankees manager Joe Girardi will return to the team in 2014 given his expiring contract, and ESPN's Buster Olney hears that the Yanks will have to significantly increase Girardi's $3MM salary in order to retain him (Twitter link).
  • There's mutual interest between Scott Feldman and the Orioles, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Kubatko thinks the O's will re-sign their midseason acquisition unless another team vastly overpays for him on the free agent market.
  • Within that piece, Kubatko also notes that free agent Jason Hammel's tenure with the Orioles is likely finished. He adds that if our own Tim Dierkes' two-year, $10MM projection for Nate McLouth is accurate, then McLouth is as good as gone, too.
  • The Blue Jays' payroll won't be moving back in 2014, GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters yesterday, including MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm. Anthopoulos stated that the team was more likely to address its holes via trade than free agency, noting that this year's free agent crop is once again looking weak. Chisholm lists second base and starting catcher as areas of focus, and he also notes that Toronto is searching for at least one middle-of-the-rotation starter.

AL Notes: Cruz, Yankees, Wedge, Blue Jays

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Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz will be back for Game 163 against the Rays, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports. Cruz, who was suspended for 50 games for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, will be activated in time for the game on Monday. Cruz adds a big bat to Texas' lineup, and for what it's worth, he has good numbers against Rays starter David Price in a small sample. Miller contrasts Cruz's situation with Melky Cabrera's disappearance from the Giants last season — unlike Cabrera, Cruz put his team in a good position to opt to activate him because he expressed regret about what he had done and stayed in touch with his teammates. Here are more notes from the American League.

  • Upper-level Yankees employees were frustrated that the team got so little high-end help from its farm system this year, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. There may be "a scapegoat or two" for that problem, but not GM Brian Cashman or manager Joe Girardi. Instead, scouting director Damon Oppenheimer or senior vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman could be out of a job.
  • Eric Wedge, who managed his last game with the Mariners on Sunday, left his post with dignity, says Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. His decision to leave the team may have seemed strange, particularly after GM Jack Zduriencik said he had no plans to fire Wedge. But, Baker says, Wedge "doesn’t just talk the talk. He walks the walk, even when it required him to swallow some job security and walk the walk right on out of here."
  • The Blue Jays could aim to trade relievers this offseason, Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca writes. "The club’s surplus of relievers is one area of depth we might have that could be attractive to other teams," says GM Alex Anthopoulos. "[I]t will not surprise me if maybe we use some of that depth to help the club in some other areas." Despite suffering through a disappointing season in 2013, the Jays finished with the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the American League, at 3.39. Given their salaries and 2013 performance, Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup would all make attractive trade candidates.

Managerial Notes: Girardi, Scioscia, Gardy, Collins

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As regular season finales are being played out across MLB today, rumors have already started to swirl about the fate of several managers. Here's the latest news and notes on that front:

  • Joe Girardi met with reporters today (Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger provides a partial transcript) and admitted he has yet to make up his mind about returning to the Yankees next season. "It comes down to family. They are first," said Girardi. "Whatever is best for the group of us, not one individual, not me or just my wife, or just one of my children, whatever is best for us as a group, that’s what we’ll decide to do. And that’s something I put some thought into, and I’m going to have to think about a lot over the next few days, obviously." Girardi added money will not play a factor in his decision. 
  • Many have speculated Girardi could be the next Cubs manager, if Dale Sveum is fired. Girardi, however, downplayed the connection to his hometown. "I haven’t lived there since 2006. I have a brother still there, a couple brothers there, actually. But my father’s gone. My mother’s gone. So there’s not as much there as there used to be."
  • Davey Johnson told reporters, including MASNsports.com's Dan Kolko, he will not manage in 2014. "I wouldn't know the talent level, wouldn't know the organization," Johnson said. "I wouldn't be a good fit. I never say 'Never' to anything. I'm always open for new challenges. But I don't see that as being a challenge that would get my motor really revved up." 
  • Mike Scioscia told reporters, including Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, he has not been informed whether he will return as Angels manager. "I'm sure that at some point they're going to let us know," said Scioscia. "It's not an issue. It really isn't. It's going to be addressed at some point. I'm sure it's going to be addressed before February."
  • Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com expects the Twins to sign Ron Gardenhire to a two-year contract and presumes a decision on his fate will be made either tonight or tomorrow (Twitter links). 
  • If not retained by the Twins, Gardenhire could be a possibility to replace Eric Wedge in Seattle, tweets FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.  In a separate tweet, Rosenthal reports the Mariners will also consider Reds pitching coach Bryan Price and former White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, who played in Seattle from 1995 to 1998.
  • The Mets have issued a press release announcing an 11am (CT) news conference tomorrow featuring GM Sandy Alderson. It is expected the topic will be a new deal for manager Terry Collins. People with direct knowledge of the negotiations tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News the contract is for two years and about $2MM, with a club option for 2016. 

Yankees Notes: Cano, Rivera, Pettitte

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Robinson Cano absolutely wants to stay in New York, but he's following a script to create the illusion that he has no problem with bolting this winter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Of course, that doesn't mean that the second baseman is staying put if there is a far more lucrative offer out there for him.  However, the free-spending Dodgers might be on the verge of being maxed out, the Cubs aren't spending yet, the Angels are still reeling from the Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton signings, and Sherman hears that it won't be the Nats or Tigers with the winning bid.  For now, despite their crowded middle infield, Sherman sees the Rangers as the team to watch.  Here's more out of New York..

  • There's a pretty wide gap between the Yankees and Cano at the starting point of negotiations as Cano's reps want to use Alex Rodriguez's $300MM+ deal as a starting point while the Yankees see David Wright (eight-year, $138MM extension) as a good comp, writes Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated.
  • Cano says that he's not ready to start talking about his free agency, writes Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.  "I know a lot of things are going to come out and say, 'A source, friends of Robbie's and this,' but I know what we're doing and what we're not doing," Cano said over the weekend. "I just want to go on vacation, sit down and enjoy, not be watching the news and everything. Then you're going to go crazy."
  • The retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte underscore the importance of a strong farm system, writes Bill Madden of the New York Daily News.  While other clubs, like the Red Sox, have tons of young talent, Madden fears that the Yanks' system is lacking.

Free Agent Profile: Hiroki Kuroda

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There are exceptions to almost every rule, and Hiroki Kuroda appears to be one of the exceptions to pitcher aging curves. At 38 years old, he's essentially having the same season he had as a 37-year-old, and the transition from the National League to the American League at age 37 barely fazed him. Kuroda will enter free agency as one of the most talented pitchers on the market.

Strengths/Pros

Kuroda is a ground-ball pitcher with plus command who misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. His career ground-ball rate is 49 percent, and he's at 46.9 percent in 2013. Only once has he turned in a ground-ball rate lower than the league average. He's adopted a sinker and two-seamer increasingly over the past few seasons as opposed to throwing a straight four-seam fastball.  Kuroda-Hiroki

Kuroda has averaged just 2.1 walks per nine innings in his career, and that figure has actually improved with each season in the American League despite the fact that he's facing designated hitters instead of pitchers. In terms of strikeouts, his 6.7 K/9 rate is below the league average but his 9.9 percent swinging-strike rate is above the league average. Kuroda appears to be a guy who can get strikeouts when he needs them but is content to trust his defense instead of punching out every hitter he faces.

As such, he's able to work deep into games. Kuroda has averaged at least 6 1/3 innings per start in each of the past three seasons. He averages 203 innings per season and should top 200 innings once again in 2013. He also won't require the long-term risk associated with top free agent starters like Matt Garza and Masahiro Tanaka.

Weaknesses/Cons

Kuroda does appear to be an exception, but history has conditioned us to believe that eventually, the bottom will drop out for a pitcher. Kuroda has been remarkably durable and effective in the AL East in his late 30s, but he will pitch next season at 39. Teams will be wary of his age, and his fastball velocity has declined slightly in each of the past three seasons.

The second half of the season also hasn't been kind to Kuroda. After a brilliant 2.65 ERA in 118 1/3 first-half innings, he's registered a more pedestrian 3.97 ERA following the All-Star break. It's fair to point out that his second-half struggles are likely tied to a bloated second-half BABIP, but that number is in part attributable to an increase in his line-drive rate in the second half.

Kuroda is also a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees, which would put him in an undesirable situation. Teams showed great reluctance to part with draft picks for players on multiyear commitments last offseason. Would a team really be OK parting with a first-round pick for what will likely be a one-year deal for a 39-year-old pitcher?

Personal

Kuroda and his wife, Masayo, have two daughters: Hinatsu and Wakana. Kuroda's family currently resides in southern California. He is considered to be one of the hardest working players in Major League Baseball, in part due to the unthinkable disciplinary tactics he was subjected to in high school and college baseball in Japan (as profiled in this 2012 piece from David Waldstein of the New York Times). Kuroda's father, Kazuhiro, was a professional outfielder in Japan, playing for the franchise that is now the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Market

Kuroda has said that he hasn't determined whether or not he'll pitch again in 2014, and even if he does return, it could be to his native Japan. For the purposes of this post, however, I'm operating under the assumption that he does return to the Majors for his age-39 campaign.

Kuroda could simply accept a qualifying offer from the Yankees, though doing so would mean giving the team a slight discount and taking an undeserved pay cut. He could also reject a qualifying offer and re-sign with the Yankees for a slight raise — perhaps $16MM or so — as he and agent Steve Hilliard of Octagon elected to do last season.

Kuroda also weighed a return to Japan last offseason and reportedly would have been happy to pitch in southern California where his daughters live and attend school. His preference does seem to be to pitch on a coast. Because a one-year deal is likely and he's coming off such a strong season, Kuroda seems highly likely to end up on a contending team.

Expected Contract

Kuroda will be one of the best free agent starters on the market and also the oldest. Another one-year deal seems likely if he is to return to Major League Baseball. He rejected a qualifying offer following last season, and it seems unlikely that he would accept one this offseason when it would mean taking a pay cut. As such, I expect Kuroda to reject a qualifying offer and ink a one-year deal worth $16MM, earning a slight raise from his 2013 salary following another strong year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Johnson, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cano

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 As the Rays fight to join the Red Sox in the postseason, let's take a look at the rest of the AL East:

  • The Orioles will tender a contract to closer Jim Johnson, reports MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. Though Johnson has accumulated more saves than anyone in baseball over the last two seasons, the 30-year-old righty went through a rough stretch that made him look like a possible non-tender, especially given the high price he'll command in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
  • Baltimore GM Dan Duquette recently had what he termed an "informal meeting" with agent Scott Boras, the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly reports. Among other O's, Boras represents two key younger Birds in catcher Matt Wieters and first baseman Chris Davis, each of whom is set to hit the open market after 2015. Though Duquette indicated that nothing significant has happened on the negotiation front, he said that working to lock up the team's "core group" was a priority that the team would work on over the winter.
  • There are a lot of roster decisions facing Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, writes Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. Particularly difficult, says Kennedy, are the questions whether or not to pick up first baseman/DH Adam Lind's option and what to do with catcher J.P. Arencibia in 2014.
  • The Jays' rotation, of course, was one of the team's most glaring disappointments this season. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca takes a closer look at the club's options heading into the offseason.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post provides the latest on soon-to-be free agent Robinson Cano, who Sherman says seems likely — but not certain — to stay in the Bronx.  “There is a lot that money can’t buy,” Cano said. “When Mo [Mariano Rivera] was a free agent, if he went somewhere else, then what happened [Thursday] could not have happened for him. But you have to understand that this is a business. The Yankees are going to do what is best for them, and I am going to do what is best for me and my family.”

East Notes: Kuroda, Lee, Mets, Blue Jays

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Yankees starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda hasn't decided whether he'll pitch in 2014, Anthony Rieber of New York Newsday reports (via Twitter). He might pitch in the U.S. or in Japan, and it's not impossible he could retire, either. Kuroda ranked sixth in Tim Dierkes' most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, and even though he'll turn 39 before the 2014 season starts, his ability to rack up high-quality innings makes him a valuable commodity. If he were to retire or return to Japan, that would put a significant dent in this offseason's free agent pitching market. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee plans to retire after the 2016 season, Matt Gelb of the Inquirer reports (on Sulia). Lee's contract is guaranteed through 2015, and the Phillies have an option on his services for 2016. "I'm financially able to shut it down, so… that's how I feel right now," Lee says. "But when the time comes I might look at it differently."
  • The Mets will look for a veteran catcher to serve as Travis d'Arnaud's backup next season, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York tweets. Adding a veteran would also insure the Mets against the possibility that d'Arnaud gets hurt, Rubin notes. In mid-August, d'Arnaud took over for John Buck as the Mets' starting catcher.
  • The Blue Jays' disappointing season has left them well outside the playoff picture, but that doesn't mean their final series against the Rays is irrelevant, MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm writes. Right now, the Jays have baseball's seventh-worst record, tied with the Phillies, Rockies and Brewers. They're currently one game worse than the Mets and two worse than the Giants. That's significant, Chisholm points out, because the top ten picks in the draft are protected, meaning that if the Jays finish with one of baseball's ten worst records, they'll be able to pursue free agents who have been extended qualifying offers, and they won't have to worry about losing their first-round pick if they sign one. For example, the Indians had a protected first-round pick last season, which allowed them to keep the No. 5 overall pick (which they used on Clint Frazier) even after they signed Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. The Indians did sacrifice their second-round and Competitive Balance Round B picks.

AL East Notes: Price, Longoria, Ortiz, Helton

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We've already shared a Nate McLouth free agent profile, some Blue Jays notes, Yankees notes and the news of Robinson Cano's contract demands today, so let's take a look around the rest of the AL East…

  • This could be David Price's last season and playoff run with the Rays, as CBS Sports' Danny Knobler figures that this offseason (when Price has two remaining years of team control) is the perfect time for the Rays to maximize their return on a trade.
  • Rays third baseman Evan Longoria looked up to Derek Jeter as a kid, yet he didn't emulate Jeter by playing for the Yankees but rather by staying with one franchise for his career, Harvey Araton of the New York Times writes.  Robinson Cano has the opportunity to be a one-franchise player if he re-signs with the Yankees this offseason and Longoria believes Cano will stay because the Yankees are always looking to contend.  “I’m sure Robby realizes that his organization is never going into a year saying they are rebuilding,” Longoria said. “You can’t not like that, or respect that.”
  • Unless David Ortiz goes on the DL over the next four days, the Red Sox slugger has stayed healthy enough to add an extra $4MM to his 2014 salary, ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes writes.  Ortiz the first 20 days of the season on the DL with his right Achilles injury but hasn't returned, so he is now guaranteed $15MM in the final year of his two-year contract with the Sox.
  • The Red Sox were Todd Helton's last opponent at Coors Field, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes that the Sox twice tried to acquire Helton from the Rockies.  A proposed 2002 blockbuster would've seen Helton and Larry Walker go to Boston in exchange for a trade package headlined by Manny Ramirez, and then in 2008 the Rockies turned down an offer of Mike Lowell for Helton straight-up.
  • The time has come for the Orioles to increase payroll and add the necessary remaining pieces to their contending roster, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun argues.

Yankees Notes: Rivera, Granderson, Cano, A-Rod

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Mariano Rivera could receive one more retirement present in the form of a long-awaited appearance in center field.  Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including MLB.com's Bryan Hoch) that he could give the closer an inning of work in center during the season-ending series this weekend in Houston, which also mark the final three games of Rivera's legendary career.  Rivera has said he will take the defensive assignment only if he feels physically up to the task.  "If I cannot do it, I will not be making a fool of myself there," Rivera said. "I'm a professional. This is not a joke. This is serious, this is business."

Here are some more items out of the Bronx…

  • Curtis Granderson's preference would be to remain with the Yankees but he's looking forward to his first taste of free agency, the outfielder tells The Star-Ledger's Brendan Prunty.  MLBTR's Steve Adams recently profiled what Granderson could claim on the open market this winter.
  • Going into what could be his last home game in Yankee Stadium, Robinson Cano told reporters (including Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York) that he planned to take a long break after the season and then think about his future.  As Matthews notes, this likely means the Yankees won't be able to extend Cano during their exclusivity period following the World Series.  Cano also didn't say if he would require the Yankees to commit to making other free agent signings this winter before re-signing with them.
  • Earlier today, it was reported that Cano was seeking a ten-year contract worth at least $305MM.  He has already rejected two extension offers from the Yankees worth $138MM over eight years and between $161MM-$168MM over seven years.
  • Alex Rodriguez "absolutely" expects to finish his career as a Yankee in 2017 after playing out the rest of his contract, he told Newsday's Steven Marcus.  "I'm looking forward to that….I've shown myself that there's a lot left in the tank — and I have a lot to prove," Rodriguez said.
  • It might not be for 211 games, but Mike Axisa of the River Ave Blues blog figures Rodriguez will face some kind of PED suspension, and Axisa looks at how the Yankees would be affected if Rodriguez had to miss 50, 100 or 150+ games.

Robinson Cano Seeking Ten Years, $305MM

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9:33am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Yankees' offer to Cano in Spring Training was similar to David Wright's eight-year, $138MM contract with the Mets (Twitter link).

Joel Sherman of the New York Post echoes that report, adding that the Yankees offered it with no deferrals. After that offer was rejected, the Yankees offered seven years in the $23-24MM range and were also rejected. Sherman has Cano's request at $310MM, stating that Cano wants to beat A-Rod's deal as opposed to match its potential total (Twitter links).

9:18am: With the Yankees officially eliminated from playoff contention, much of the focus on the team will shift to Robinson Cano's impending free agency, and it could be more expensive than any had imagined. According to ESPN's Buster Olney (ESPN Insider required), Cano is seeking a ten-year contract worth $305MM — the total value of Alex Rodriguez's deal with the Yankees if he hits all of his incentives — as he heads into free agency.

A contract of that magnitude would be the largest commitment in Major League history, but Cano's track record of elite production gives him the ability to seek something historical. Over the past five seasons, Cano is batting .314/.369/.531, averaging 160 games and 28 homers per season. A solid defender at second base, Cano has been worth an average of 6.4 WAR (per Fangraphs) or 7.5 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) over the past four seasons, depending on which version of the metric you prefer.

Cano's request clearly clashes with the Yankees' desire to keep their payroll under the $189MM luxury tax threshold, but it's not clear if any team could afford to sign him to such a lucrative deal. The Dodgers would seem the likeliest candidates, but recent reports have indicated that they're not likely to pursue Cano or any other major free agents this offseason.

Earlier this year, Cano left the Boras Corporation in favor of Jay-Z's start-up agency, Roc Nation Sports, which is currently partnering with CAA Sports. CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen is said to be heading up any contract negotiations for Cano, though Jay-Z was recently certified by the MLBPA as a player representative himself.

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