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Yankees Notes: Ryan, Nunez, Soriano, Sabathia

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Mariano Rivera is deserving of our respect and adoration, but he is also one of the most overrated players in recent memory, opines Jim Caple of ESPN.com.  Caple argues that because his role was limited to closing out games, he did not contribute to the Yankees' success on the same plane as someone like Derek Jeter, who has seen about 22,000 innings more of action for the Bombers.  More out of the Bronx..

  • We all know that the Yankees are trying to get under the $189MM luxury tax threshold this winter, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post crunched the numbers to show that it could be even more challenging than previously thought.  The Yankees, for once, are going to have to count pennies, which puts five players in varying levels of flux this offseason.  Sherman sees Brendan Ryan, Eduardo Nunez, Mark Reynolds, Austin Romine, and Michael Pineda as guys that the Yankees will have to make decisions on.
  • Jon Heyman of CBS Sports ran down the best in-season pickups of the year, starting with Alfonso Soriano.  "This is the top summer acquisition and I don't think anything's close," one GM said of the 37-year-old, who owns a .261/.325/.541 slash line in 54 games for the Yankees. 
  • C.C. Sabathia has the paycheck of an ace, but he sure hasn't looked like one.  The hurler says that he's going to get back on track in 2014, but Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com isn't sure whether he can believe him.  The 33-year-old is guaranteed $23MM per year through 2015 and $25MM in 2016.  In 2013, Sabathia has a 4.78 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Rosenthal On Sveum, Yankees, Giants

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a lot of interesting stuff in today's column and we'll take a look at some of the highlights below..

  • The Cubs never hired Dale Sveum as a long-term answer in the dugout.  Instead, he was brought aboard as a bridge to a big-name manager who would "complete the job" once the team was ready to win.  Rosenthal says that both the Cubs and the skipper were aware of this when the hire was made nearly two years ago.  Sveum has just one year remaining on his deal and it has been speculated that Yankees skipper Joe Girardi could be a candidate.
  • While the Yankees have been routinely criticized for their development of young talent, the 2006 draft stands as quite a success.  However, notables Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Zach McAllister, and George Kontos are now elsewhere.  GM Brian Cashman was aware of the club's history of trading away promising young talent, which led to his disagreement with Tampa brass over the Alfonso Soriano deal.  Cashman denies reports that say he opposed the trade but admits that he opposed the timing of it.  He believes that if they waited until they got closer to Aug. 31st deadline, the Cubs would have taken a lesser prospect than pitcher Corey Black. 
  • One rival executive expects the Giants to make a play for a Cuban free agent like Jose Dariel Abreu or second baseman Alexander Guerrero.  The exec believes that the Giants have seen the impact of Cuban players Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes right in their own backyard and will look to join in this winter.  It also helps that San Francisco is in need of some offense.

Central Rumors: Girardi, Dunn, Perkins, Pirates

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Could Joe Girardi leave the Yankees to become the next manager of the Cubs?  It's all speculative right now, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com sizes up both jobs and the challenges that each one figures to bring over the next few years.  Here's tonight's look at the Central divisions after Michael Wacha came ever so close to a no-hitter..

  • Adam Dunn's $15MM salary for 2014 almost assures his return to the White Sox in 2014 and talk of him being platooned next season sounds premature, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. "I don't think we're at that point yet," GM Rick Hahn said. "I think we need to see what the roster looks like, see how he comes back, how he looks and see what the options are for Robin. Ultimately the lineup is his call, so especially given that we aren't sure what the roster is going to look like, it's premature to pigeonhole anyone into a lesser role than they have right now."
  • Twins closer Glen Perkins' outstanding season has boosted his 2013 salary from $2.5MM to $2.975MM and boosted his 2014 salary from $3.75MM to $3.9875MM, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter links).
  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs looks at five components of the Pirates' construction of a playoff team. Among Cameron's components are the fact that the Pirates bought into the predictive power of stats like xFIP, adopted aggressive defensive shifts and ignored positional stereotypes with players like Neil Walker and Starling Marte.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Marquis, Bastardo, Vogelsong, Pettitte

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Despite undergoing Tommy John surgery on July 30, Jason Marquis isn't ready to end his career at age 35.  The veteran right-hander told MLB.com's Corey Brock that he is making good progress in rehab and intends to pitch in 2014, though the nature of his injury will keep him on the DL for at least the first two months of the season.  Marquis will be a free agent this winter and it's possible a team (maybe even the Padres, his current club) will sign him to a low-risk minor league contract come April or May.

Here's some news as we dive into the final six days of the regular season…

  • Though Antonio Bastardo is currently serving a 50-game suspension for PED use, the Phillies are likely to tender him a contract this offseason, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.  The southpaw had a 2.32 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 42 2/3 relief innings for the Phils this year and has posted a 3.13 ERA, 11.7 K/9 and 2.71 K/BB ratio in 152 2/3 IP since the start of the 2011 season.  Bastardo earned $1.4MM this season (though he lost approximately $420K of his salary to suspension) and will be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter.
  • Ryan Vogelsong tells Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News that he is hoping the Giants pick up its $6.5MM club option on his services for 2014.  "If I was pitching better right now, it's probably not even a question," Vogelsong said. "But I feel I still have a lot to bring to the game and this team. It's no secret I love it here. I want to be back and hope they pick it up."  Vogelsong has struggled through an injury-plagued season that saw the righty post a 5.90 ERA in 18 starts.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman saw Andy Pettitte's retirement coming and he tells Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger that this time, Pettitte is leaving for good.  “I’ve known for a while that this was going to be it,” Cashman said.  “I know that I won’t be able to convince him like I’ve done in the past."
  • Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese could be trade chips for the Mets this winter as the team looks to add batting help, but Michael Baron of Metsblog.com thinks the two pitchers could stay put for at least another year until the Mets determine how long Matt Harvey will be sidelined.

Passan’s Latest: Marlins, Garza, Girardi

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Inspired by the O.co Coliseum's sewage problems, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports introduced the "Toilet Scale" to rate some postseason contenders "based on just how badly they're flushing their season."  Within the colorful piece, Passan also shared a few hot stove rumors…

  • Marlins team president David Samson, president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest and GM Michael Hill could all be fired in the club's latest shakeup.  Assistant GM Dan Jennings would take over as Miami's new general manager, and sources tell Passan that Jennings already has permission to begin assembling a staff.  Beinfest has been rumored to be danger, though Samson's job was previously thought to be safe.  As Passan notes, however, owner Jeffrey Loria was prepared to fire Beinfest and Hill last year before changing his mind.  Given how much influence Loria has over the team's decisions, "Who the hell would want to work there?" one Passan source rhetorically asked.
  • The Rangers front office was "pressured by ownership" into making the midseason deal for Matt Garza that hasn't worked out for the club.  Garza has a 4.56 ERA in 12 starts for Texas and can depart as a free agent this winter without any compensation coming back to the Rangers in return.  Of the prospects Texas sent to the Cubs in the Garza deal, "evaluators absolutely love" right-hander C.J. Edwards, who just recently turned 22 years old and posted a 1.86 ERA over 24 starts at both levels of A-ball this season.
  • It's been a tumultuous season for Joe Girardi, who Passan praises for keeping the Yankees in contention despite multiple major injuries, declining veterans and the Alex Rodriguez controversy.  This is the final year of Girardi's contract with the Yankees and one executive suggested to Passan that Girardi could find a lot less stress managing elsewhere in 2014.  We heard over the weekend that one Yankees official pegs Girardi's chances of staying in the Bronx at 70 percent.

Free Agent Profile: Curtis Granderson

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A pair of broken bones isn't something any impending free agent wants to endure in a contract year, but that's what Curtis Granderson is attempting to overcome. After a pair of 40-homer campaigns from 2011-12, Granderson was hit by a pitch in his first Spring Training plate appearance in 2013. X-rays would reveal a fractured forearm that wound up causing the Grandy Man to sit out the first six weeks of the year.

As if that wasn't enough poor luck for the former Tiger, he was struck in the left hand by a pitch from Rays reliever Cesar Ramos on May 24 in just his eighth game of the season. Granderson stayed in the game briefly, but that would be his last contest until Aug. 2, as he had suffered a broken metacarpal that required surgery. After missing about two-thirds of the season, Granderson will hit the open market as a free agent.

Strengths/Pros

The first thing that comes to mind with Granderson is power. After averaging 24 homers per season from 2006-10, Granderson exploded with a 41-homer campaign in his second season with the Yankees. Granderson He followed that up with 43 long balls in 2012. While many will point to Yankee Stadium as the reason for his surge in power, it wasn't all the ballpark. Granderson belted 47 homers at Yankee Stadium in 2011-12 but still went deep 37 times on the road. No one in baseball had more home runs from 2011-12 than Granderson, and his 30 homers against lefties in that span were also the most in baseball.

He's capable of playing all three outfield positions as a result of his good speed, though advanced defensive metrics soured on him in 2012. UZR and The Fielding Bible both like his glove-work in this season's limited sample size, however, and he grades out as a positive defender for his career per both metrics.

That speed also comes through on the basepaths. Granderson is still a threat for double-digit stolen bases. He's swiped seven bags in 55 games this season and is just stole 25 as recently as 2011. According to Fangraphs, he's never had a full season in which his baserunning has cost his team runs, and he's been worth 28 runs above average on the basepaths over the course of his career (he's at +1.3 this season).

Granderson is also patient; he's walked in 11 percent of his plate appearances dating back to the 2008 season. His blend of patience and power allows a manager to bat him anywhere in the lineup. While he's missed time with injury this season, both were freak accidents. From 2006-12, Granderson was a picture of durability, averaging 153 games per season.

Weaknesses/Cons

Granderson hit .302 in 2007 and backed it up with a .280 season, but don't confuse him for a player that's going to hit for a high average. From 2009-13, Granderson has batted .247 due to a strikeout rate that has continued to rise. At this point, it's fair to expect him to whiff in roughly a quarter of his trips to the plate.

His best year at the plate came in 2011, when Granderson was able to post an OPS north of .900 against both lefties and righties, but he's often struggled to hit for average and get on base against left-handed pitching. In 2012, Granderson hit just .218/.304/.458 against southpaws. He's been better in a small sample size this season, but he's never shown a prolonged ability to hit lefties over multiple seasons.

Granderson is also on the wrong side of his prime. He'll turn 33 next March, so any team that pays him on a multi-year deal could fall victim to the dreaded "pay for the prime, get the decline" scenario. His isolated power peaked at .290 in 2011, dropped to .260 last season and is currently at .188. That's still a strong number but could be a portent for a power outage in the near future.

Personal

Granderson has a big personality and is friendly toward fans, teammates and the media. His parents are both retired teachers, which is one of the reasons that he is so dedicated to education. Granderson finished the final two years of his degree from the University of Illinois-Chicago while playing in the Tigers organization. He also founded the Grand Kids Foundation in 2008 — a foundation aimed to increase educational and youth baseball opportunities for inner-city children. He's very active elsewhere within the community as well, having participated in programs such as Play Baseball Detroit and Tigers Dreams Come True. He is widely regarded as one of the most amiable players in the game.

Market

Granderson's track record is strong enough that he will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and he has a case for a multiyear deal elsewhere even if he rejects that offer. His power and magnetic personality will appeal to all teams, and the latter will be particularly appealing to large market teams with aggressive media. Granderson is a native of the Chicago area and has enjoyed his time in New York, though he hasn't necessarily indicated a geographic preference.

Granderson will be competing with the likes of Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence this offseason, each of whom is younger and coming off a career year in a full, healthy season.

Expected Contract

It's tough to pin down Granderson's free agent value. Had he enjoyed a healthy season similar to 2011-12, he'd be in line for at least a four-year deal. Agent Matt Brown of Pro Prospects Inc. can emphasize the point that his two injuries were freak accidents, but teams won't simply ignore the fact that Granderson will end up having played in roughly 60 games this season.

It only takes one team to push him to a four-year guarantee, so it's not out of the question. Any team that is willing to guarantee a fourth year and sign him for Nick Swisher money — four years and $56MM — would likely be able to land Granderson. However, I'm predicting that Granderson will sign a three-year, $45MM contract this offseason, perhaps with an option that could bring him to that fourth year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Rangers, A’s, Jeter, Nationals, Phillies

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In an attempt to compensate for the looming loss of Nelson Cruz to his 50-game suspension, the Rangers tried to swing a big trade for Justin Upton at the July trade deadline, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The Braves refused a package of Matt Garza, Joe Nathan and David Murphy. If those are the only three players the Rangers offered, it's not a surprise that the Braves passed — Garza and Murphy are eligible for free agency after the season, while Upton is a good young player who is under contract through 2015. Eventually, of course, the Rangers acquired Alex Rios in August. Here are more notes from around the Majors.

  • The Athletics clinched their second AL West title in a row with an 11-7 win over the Twins on Sunday, and GM Billy Beane says the team's depth has been the key to their smooth season, John Hickey of InsideBayArea.com reports. "We knew going in this was the deepest roster we’d ever had here," says Beane. "We needed that depth, and it paid for itself." As Hickey points out, the Athletics hardly missed a beat all season, even though Brett Anderson, Josh Reddick, John Jaso and Derek Norris all missed significant time. Here are more notes from around the Majors. A quietly brilliant season from Josh Donaldson surely helped, but the A's got solid offensive and defensive performances from most of their hitters, and other than Anderson, their starting rotation mostly stayed healthy.
  • After taking in the ceremony for Mariano Rivera and the applause for Andy Pettitte on Sunday, it dawned on injured Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter that he had played his final game with his two retiring teammates, Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger reports. "I’m going to miss them a lot," says Jeter. "These guys have been brothers to me. We’ve been through quite a bit together. Pretty much everything you can experience on a field. In my whole professional career, I’ve been playing with at least one of them." The three had their rookie seasons together with the 1995 Yankees, and Jeter and Pettitte also played on many of the same minor-league teams, including Class A Greensboro in 1992 and and Triple-A Columbus in 1994 and 1995.
  • Pitcher Dan Haren thinks the Nationals should aim to keep their team together, writes MLB.com's Andrew Simon. "Last year they had a great year and this year we’ve shown a lot of fight here the last few months. I think as close as things could stay to the guys in this room, I think the better," Haren says. He also appears to support bench coach Randy Knorr for the Nationals' managerial position, which will be open when Davey Johnson retires after the season. Haren himself is a free agent, of course, and he seems aware that he might not be part of the 2014 Nationals, even if they ultimately go with a similar roster: "I know there’ll be some subtle changes, me probably being one of them."
  • Now that the Phillies have settled on Ryne Sandberg as their manager, they'll now turn their attention to their coaching staff, MLB.com's Todd Zolecki reports. With a new manager, it's typical to have at least some change in the rest of the coaching staff. Zolecki mentions that one potential change might be re-hiring former manager Larry Bowa in some capacity.
  • A "winter of discontent" is on the way for Phillies fans, writes Bob Ford of the Inquirer. After a recent streak of successful seasons, Ford says, a team elsewhere might "get a standing ovation and then be allowed to attempt its rebuilding with patient if not fervent support. That might be the case here as well, if only the team would get on with the rebuilding." Instead, the Phils will head into the offseason expecting to keep aging veterans Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee. They might also go into 2014 with Carlos Ruiz still at catcher, and perhaps also with Roy Halladay in the rotation. Ford compares the Phillies to a rock band who are still touring long past the point where they've lost relevance, "dyeing their hair and wearing hearing aids."

East Notes: Yankees, Rays, Loria

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The impending retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte mark the end of an era for which Yankees fans should be grateful, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues. The Yankees have been over .500 for 21 straight seasons, and have gone to the playoffs in 17 of the last 18 seasons. Their success, however, came with "impossible standards," with former owner George Steinbrenner imposing a "championship-or-humiliation doctrine." The Yankees' enormous payrolls competitors help them, Sherman admits, but other franchises (the Phillies, Angels and Blue Jays, for example) have spent lots on payroll and had far less success. And the Yankees' superb homegrown core of Derek Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada has been an enormous part of the Yankees' winning ways, too. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Rays will likely try to address first base, left field, designated hitter and their bench this winter, writes the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin in a preview of the months to come. The Rays' decisions to pick up their 2014 options for middle infielders Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar will be "obvious," leaving the Rays set at those positions.
  • Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria isn't listening to president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest as much as he used to, because Beinfest isn't afraid to tell Loria when he doesn't like his player-acquisition ideas, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. As an example, Jackson says that when Beinfest recently recommended that the Marlins promote second baseman Derek Dietrich, Loria refused, because he was angry at Dietrich's accusations of abusive behavior by ex-hitting coach coach Tino Martinez. But then assistant GM Dan Jennings made the same suggestion about promoting Dietrich, and Loria relented.

Cafardo On Girardi, Rockies, Gardenhire, Washington

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Agent Scott Boras wants to see the World Series elevated to the same level as the Super Bowl in terms of national buzz and corporate sponsorship and he believes he has a plan to make that happen, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Boras proposes having the first or first two games played at a neutral site to combat the "regionalized" feel of the Fall Classic.  “It would be a gathering place for all of baseball,” Boras said. “The team officials would have to show up for the awards and other business. It could be the start of the hot-stove season as it once was. It would bring baseball center stage. It would make the World Series an event, much like the All-Star Game, which is the best in sports. Why not take all of the metrics of that event and apply them to the World Series?”  Here's more from today's column..

  • One Yankees official thinks it’s “70-30” that Joe Girardi returns next season as manager.  Girardi would be intrigued by the Cubs' managerial job and Chicago is said to be contemplating Dale Sveum’s future with the team.  Girardi has done a remarkable job this season, but Cafardo wonders if he might want out as the Bombers rebuild.  
  • There’s increased talk that Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd could be on the hot seat after the Rockies fell short of expectations this season.  The Rockies have a two-headed monster at the executive level that might not be working as well as expected and O'Dowd could be the man to go.
  • The biggest issue on whether the Twins bring Ron Gardenhire back is whether they believe he’s been on the job too long and has lost touch with his players.  While Minnesota has one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, GM Terry Ryan and owner Jim Pohlad have to decide if Gardenhire is the guy to lead the resurgence.
  • Internally, people in the Rangers organization have no doubts regarding Ron Washington’s job status.  That lines up with comments from GM Jon Daniels last week when he said that the skipper's job isn't in jeopardy.
  • Longtime MLB exec Andy MacPhail has taken some time away from the game but he's now ready to get back into baseball.  It's not clear exactly what he wants to do, but he probably doesn't want to be a GM.  Cafardo suggests that he could return to run an organization and his ties to commissioner Bud Selig could help his candidacy.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays

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In case you missed it, yesterday was a big day in the AL East. The Red Sox clinched the division, even if that had already become a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, the Rays and Orioles churned through a record twenty-one pitchers in an epic, 18-inning contest that left Tampa in the driver's seat of the Wild Card race. Here are some notes on the division:

  • The Red Sox' turnaround exceeded even the team's internal expectations, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. While the Sox pegged the likeliest outcome as an 86-win campaign, with an outside shot at a low-90's figure, Boston has already notched 94 W's with seven left to go. "I think we're all in a bit of shock," said team chairman Tom Werner. 
  • Speier provides a detailed explanation of how the team effected its dramatic turnaround, ranging from the return to form of several regulars (especially in the rotation), development of an impressive bench (including the DFA'd Mike Carp), and improved focus and chemistry. As Speier notes, the front office "nailed one bull's-eye after another while turning over roughly a third of its roster."
  • Under GM Ben Cherington, Boston has transformed its organization and with it the product on the field, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. As with the Speier piece, you'll want to read the entire article, but the most interesting bits relate to the GM's philosophies. Approaching his post with a long-term focus, humble evaluative framework, and open mind, Gammons explains how Cherington has infused solid, hard-working pieces into the organization. 
  • Rotation stalwart Andy Pettitte's forthcoming retirement is yet another reminder that a Yankee era is ending, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. The team faces a wide array of roster challenges heading into 2013, says Knobler, with age and injury questions around the diamond, no attractive catching options, and a meager free agent market to play in. 
  • Of course, given the team's unequaled spending capacity, one is always loath to count out the Bronx Bombers. Indeed, GM Brian Cashman has navigated countless hurdles this season to deliver a contender, though the team is now highly likely to miss out on the postseason for just the second time in the last nineteen years. Looking ahead, the Yanks have relatively meager overall commitments in comparison to their historical $200MM+ payroll levels: $89MM in 2014 (six players, one buy-out); $68.1MM in 2015 (three players); $69.1MM in 2016 (three players); and $26MM in 2017 (one player, one buy-out). And that is before accounting for any dollars saved via the yet-to-be-finalized Alex Rodriguez suspension. Of course, those amounts do not account for a new deal for Robinson Cano, and it is looking increasingly likely that the team's long-term commitments may deliver little in on-field production.
  • The Blue Jays have long been the lone AL East team with nothing left to play for in 2013. The team's brass has already begun evaluating and planning for next year, reports Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. Addressing a reader question, Griffin says that the team has little reason to waste its energy pursuing star second baseman Robinson Cano, but could instead take advantage of salary coming off the books after 2015 to make a back-loaded offer to a free agent pitcher. 
  • Looking forward, Toronto has a heavily front-loaded set of salary obligations after carrying a franchise-high $119.3MM payroll on opening day this year. The Jays have the league's fourth-highest contract commitments for both 2014 ($110.5MM) and 2015 ($91.2MM), but are locked into a below-average $27.6MM in 2016. To back-load money to a free agent this offseason, however, would mean giving out at least a three- or four-year deal, and there do not appear to be many starters on the market that would warrant that kind of commitment.
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