Reds Avoid Arbitration With Aroldis Chapman
9:20am: Chapman settled at an $8.05MM figure, tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. That sum is a fairly sizable $375K higher than the midpoint of the two figures, suggesting that the Reds may have been particularly motivated to avoid a hearing.
9:12am: The Reds announced that they have avoided arbitration with closer Aroldis Chapman by agreeing to a one-year deal. The flamethrowing southpaw, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.3MM in 2015, had filed for an $8.7MM salary, while the team had countered at $6.65MM (as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker).
Chapman, who was arbitration eligible for the second time this offseason, enjoyed a characteristically brilliant season out of the bullpen for Cincinnati. Though he missed the beginning of the season after he was struck in the face by a line drive in Spring Training, Chapman showed no negative effects once he was able to take the field. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Relativity Sports client pitched to an even 2.00 ERA with a preposterous 17.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and a 43.5 percent ground-ball rate. Despite the missed time, his 36 saves fell just two shy of his career-high 38 — a total he achieved in both 2012 and 2013.
Shields Can Opt Out Of Padres Contract After 2016 Season
James Shields‘ four-year, $75MM contract with the Padres allows him to opt out of the deal after the 2016 season, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The backloaded nature of his deal, however, means that doing so would amount to forfeiting a guaranteed $44MM over the final two years of the contract. (Shields will earn $21MM in 2017 and again in 2018, and his 2019 option comes with a $2MM buyout.)
Clearly, given the fact that Shields will be entering his age-35 season at that stage, the opt-out isn’t necessarily as powerful as those held by younger arms such as CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke. However, it’s not impossible to think that two years from now, if Shields has put together a pair of strong seasons, that he could top a $44MM guarantee on a three-year deal. The amount by which he would have to top that sum would be the question. Clearly, a three-year, $45MM pact wouldn’t be an upgrade, but if Shields were able to secure something in the vein of three years and $54MM (an $18MM annual salary), perhaps it would be worth considering.
That scenario is hardly a likely outcome, but the increased leverage provided by the contract is nevertheless an additional element of value that had yet to come to the surface. Shields and agent Page Odle have been panned by some for reaching too far in free agency, though Odle spoke to Rosenthal yesterday and explained that there was never a specific target in terms of years or dollars; rather, he discussed three-, four- and five-year deals for Shields from the onset of free agency.
Even if Shields and Odle did seek a five-year contract and stick to that goal for much of the offseason, as some have speculated, a four-year, $75MM contract with an opt-out clause hardly seems like a terrible fallback option. As Jeff Todd and I discussed on yesterday’s MLBTR Podcast, Shields didn’t end up on a one-year deal, and it’s hard to call a contract that handily tops the deals inked by similarly aged peers such as Ervin Santana and Mark Buehrle a failure or a misstep. Last year, we at MLBTR posited that a four-year pact for Shields may be the ceiling in free agency, given his age. I’ll admit to being swept up in the narrative of the “Big Three” free agents this offseason and altering my own expectations to a five-year deal (despite a belief last spring that four would be the cap).
That said, it’s puzzling to see the criticism for Shields when both he and Odle have adamantly refuted the notion that he ever received/rejected a five-year, $110MM offer. Rather, the largest reported figure that has come to light, courtesy of ESPN’s Buster Olney, was the four-year, $80MM pact said to be discussed with the Giants prior to their signing of Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong. If the end result of Shields’ waiting game was a contract that came in $5MM below the top of his range while affording him a two-year opt-out and the chance to play some 200 miles closer to home, it would seem that some of the criticism he’s received may be harsh. Not only that, but if this type of contract was believed to be a fallback all along — and walking away from similar parameters with the Giants in December suggests that may be the case — then it’s hard to blame Shields’ camp for any attempts at a five-year pact.
Astros Discussing Minors Deal With Joe Thatcher
The Astros are interested in Joe Thatcher and a source tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) that he believes Houston will sign the veteran left-hander to a minor league contract. Another source says no deal is done, though it could be close, as an agreement could be completed “probably [by] tomorrow.”
Over ten teams have shown interest in Thatcher this winter and he’s close to deciding on his new team, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported earlier today. Houston was cited as one of the teams most interested in Thatcher’s services, along with the Athletics, Rangers and Mets. Given all of this interest, it would be somewhat surprising to see Thatcher settle for a minor league deal given his track record.
Thatcher, 33, posted a 3.34 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.89 K/BB rate over 207 2/3 innings with the Padres and Diamondbacks from 2007-13. He was pitching particularly well for Arizona last season (a 2.63 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and a sterling 8.33 K/BB rate over 30 1/3 IP) before being dealt to the Angels in July, and that’s when Thatcher’s season took a turn for the worse. He struggled to an 8.53 ERA in only 6 1/3 innings for Anaheim as he spent over a month on the DL with a sprained ankle and didn’t even make the Halos’ postseason roster.
Signing Thatcher would further reinforce an Astros bullpen that has already added Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson this winter. The relief corps could be further bolstered by one or several of Houston’s young arms that don’t win the fifth spot in the starting rotation.
Latest On James Shields & The Padres
James Shields‘ four-year, $75MM contract with the Padres became official yesterday, and more details about the signing continue to become public. Here’s the latest…
- Page Odle, Shields’ agent, discussed his client’s free agent experience with FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, saying that Shields’ market only really started to come into focus over the last three weeks. “I don’t know why it took so long for his market to develop. We had some early conversations with teams. We had one offer early. It didn’t come together. That team moved on,” Odle said. “Then there were teams we were talking to that ended up making trades. And I’m sure that probably changed a few of the scenarios. His market really didn’t start to develop again until after the first of the year, where we started getting calls and started having more sincere discussions with teams.”
- As you might expect, Odle disagreed with some executives’ claims that he “overreached” with his demands for Shields. “There was no set dollar amount that James had to have. Do we think he is one of the better pitchers in the game? Absolutely. If statistics and what you do in your career matter, then James has that on his side,” Odle said.
- Shields was rumored to have received a five-year, $110MM offer from a team earlier this winter, yet Odle said those reports were “completely inaccurate and a fabrication.” The right-hander never insisted on a five-year contract, as “we had scenarios talking to teams in the three-year, four-year and five-year range from the start….We were having all kinds of talks, talks with vesting options, talks about club options. This thing settled into a four-year deal with an option. There was never a demand that it had to be five years.“
- Odle never expected to discuss a six-year contract, and no such deal was proposed in any negotiations.
- The Cubs were the other finalists for Shields’ services, the righty confirmed himself in an interview with on 1080AM radio (hat tip to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Shields noted his choice came down to “two great managers” — his new skipper Bud Black and Cubs manager Joe Maddon, who Shields enjoyed playing under when the two were in Tampa Bay.
- While living in nearby Rancho Santa Fe played a part in his decision to sign with the Padres, Shields said he was ultimately impressed by the club’s busy offseason and their desire to get back into contention. “They had that win-now mentality. They want not only to win now but win the next four, five years,” Shields said.
Royals Finalizing Two-Year Deal With Kelvin Herrera
6:10pm: Herrera will earn $1.6MM in 2015 and $2.55MM in 2016, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. Herrera has also passed his physical, Heyman notes, so it’s seemingly just a matter of time before the contract becomes official.
2:51pm: The Royals are finalizing a two-year contract with right-handed setup man Kelvin Herrera, reports Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter). The contract will pay the arbitration-eligible relief ace $4.15MM. Herrera is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.
Herrera, who turned 25 on New Year’s Eve, broke out as part of an elite trio of relief arms that fueled Kansas City’s juggernaut-like run through the American League Wild Card game, the ALDS and the ALCS. Alongside Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland, Herrera gives manager Ned Yost three lights-out weapons to pitch in high-leverage situations at the end of games.
Last season, Herrera pitched to a pristine 1.41 ERA, averaging 7.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a 49.2 percent ground-ball rate while lighting up the radar gun with a fastball that averaged 98.1 mph. His strikeout rate dipped substantially from 2013, perhaps due to a stark decrease in the number of change-ups he threw (176 in 2013, 33 in 2014). The decision to scrap the change seems at least somewhat curious, given the 22 percent whiff rate he’s racked up on the pitch throughout his career, but it’s hard to argue with the bottom-line results produced by Herrera.
Herrera had filed for a $1.9MM salary, with the team countering at $1.15MM, as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. The midpoint of those figures — $1.525MM — was right in line with the $1.5MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. However, under his new two-year deal, Herrera will not have to worry about the arbitration process until the 2016-17 offseason. As a Super Two player who was eligible for the first time this winter, Herrera will be controlled through the 2018 season and will be arb-eligible twice more upon completion of this pact.
Shae Simmons Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
The Braves have announced that right-hander Shae Simmons underwent Tommy John surgery today and will miss the 2015 season as he rehabs from the procedure.
Simmons, 24, surfaced with the Braves in late May and enjoyed a very strong run through the end of July, but a sore shoulder cost him the final two months of the season. While healthy, the former 22nd-round pick notched a 2.91 ERA with 23 strikeouts against 11 walks in 21 2/3 innings. He allowed just one home run and posted an excellent 52.8 percent ground-ball rate to go along with an average fastball velocity of 94.9 mph.
The news continues a run of bad luck the Braves (and the entire league, in a more general sense) have had with Tommy John surgery over the past year. Last spring, Atlanta lost both Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen to torn ulnar collateral ligaments, essentially wiping out 40 percent of their projected starting rotation. That led to the signing of both Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang, who performed admirably in their stead.
As MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets, the Braves say that Simmons began complaining of elbow discomfort last week. That may very well explain some of the team’s motivation for bringing in a vast array of experienced right-handers over the past week. Atlanta has added Jose Veras, Todd Coffey and Matt Capps on minor league pacts over the past three days, each of whom will be in Spring Training in hopes of securing a spot in the bullpen.
Astros Sign Roberto Hernandez
2:45pm: The contract includes an opt-out five days prior to Opening Day, and the Major League side of the deal is worth $2.65MM, MLBTR has learned.
2:08pm: The Astros have signed righty Roberto Hernandez to a minor league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, the team announced. Hernandez is represented by DPX Sports.
Hernandez, 34, posted a 4.10 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9, and 49.7% groundball rate for the Phillies and Dodgers last year. He had signed a $4.5MM free agent deal with the Phillies last offseason.
A legitimate chance to make the Astros’ rotation likely weighed in Hernandez’s decision. The agreement between the two sides comes after a one-year pact with Ryan Vogelsong fell through in January. Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are locks for the Astros’ rotation after breakout 2014 seasons, and veteran Scott Feldman has a spot secured as well. According to an article from Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle from late January, Brett Oberholtzer is also penciled in. According to Drellich, new acquisition Dan Straily might be the favorite for the fifth spot, with Brad Peacock not expected to be ready for Opening Day after offseason hip surgery. Alex White, Asher Wojciechowski and Sam Deduno are other fifth starter candidates to watch, according to Drellich.
Mariners To Sign Rickie Weeks
FEB. 12: Weeks can also earn up to $2MM worth of incentives on his deal with Seattle, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via Twitter).
FEB. 11: The Mariners and second baseman Rickie Weeks are in agreement on a one-year, $2MM Major League deal, pending a physical, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio (Twitter links). Weeks is represented by the Legacy Agency.
As Bowden explains, Seattle will look to use Weeks to spell Robinson Cano at second base and will also deploy him in the corner outfield at times. That role would seem to make some sense, as left fielder Dustin Ackley batted a woeful .212/.255/.298 against left-handed pitching in 2014 and is a career .236/.295/.342 hitter against southpaws. Weeks, as I explained earlier this week in examining teams with which he could potentially fit, has handled lefties with aplomb throughout his career. He batted .256/.361/.504 and swatted seven homers against lefties in 2014 and has hit .261/.385/.448 against them in his career. I speculated within that piece that a team could deploy him in the corner outfield as well as the infield, though the Mariners didn’t strike me as an obvious fit given Cano’s presence.
However, Seattle has a notoriously left-leaning lineup, with only catcher Mike Zunino, DH Nelson Cruz and center fielder Austin Jackson projecting as right-handed regulars. Justin Ruggiano, acquired from the Cubs this offseason, figures to platoon with Seth Smith in right field, and Weeks will give manager Lloyd McClendon another right-handed bat, allowing him to slot in at least five righties on days when a left-handed pitcher takes the hill for Seattle opponents.
While some might find the fit curious, if not downright surprising, it’s not a complete shock to see the Mariners show interest, as GM Jack Zduriencik was the Brewers’ director of scouting when Weeks was selected with the second overall pick in 2003. Weeks established himself as Milwaukee’s everyday second baseman last decade and enjoyed three excellent seasons from 2009-11 in which he batted .269/.357/.472, even belting 29 homers in 2010. His production took a step back in 2012 and cratered in 2013, but he rebounded to an extent last year when he served primarily as a platoon partner for Scooter Gennett.
Some of Weeks’ 2013 struggles can be attributed to a drastic dip in BABIP, but his strikeout rate has climbed upward a bit, and while he’s maintained a solid homer-to-flyball ratio, his overall amount of fly-balls has trended downward in a significant fashion. Weeks has become more of a ground-ball hitter, putting the ball on the ground more than 56 percent of the time in 2014, including a sky-high rate of 63.4 percent against right-handed pitching. If he can begin elevating the ball once again, he has a chance to restore some of his previous pop against righties, though the move to the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field in Seattle won’t help him achieve that goal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Amaro: Four Teams Have Made “Real” Offers For Hamels
Cole Hamels remains available on the trade market, and as many eight teams have kicked the tires on the ace left-hander, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Asked by Salisbury how many clubs have made offers, Amaro replied, “Real offers? Four.”
Amaro wouldn’t comment on which clubs made those “real” offers, though earlier today it was reported that the Padres made an “aggressive” offer for Hamels prior to signing James Shields. Other teams that have been seriously linked to Hamels include the Cardinals, Rangers and Red Sox. Boston has reportedly balked at Amaro’s insistence on top catching prospect Blake Swihart‘s inclusion in a potential trade package.
Earlier this month, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that “five or six” teams were still trying to swing a trade for Hamels, though the Padres’ signing of Shields may remove them from that race. Padres ownership has said the payroll could land around $100MM, and they’re at roughly $96.5MM right now after adding Shields. However, some reports have indicated that $105MM might be the team’s max limit, so it strikes me as at least plausible — albeit unlikely — that they could attempt to squeeze Hamels into the mix if the Phillies eat some 2015 salary or take a different contract back.
The Phillies are more eager to trade Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon than Hamels, Salisbury writes, and they’re also very willing to trade Cliff Lee. Amaro wouldn’t rule out the possibility of making a trade prior to the onset of Spring Training, Salisbury adds, but moving someone like Lee would likely require him to demonstrate his health in Spring Training. A number of teams have told Amaro they’ll be monitoring the Phillies this spring.
Padres Sign James Shields
7:10pm: Corey Brock of MLB.com reports that the $63MM Shields will earn over the final three seasons of the deal will be spread out in equal $21MM increments (Twitter link). That would make the overall structure $10MM in 2015, $21MM each year from 2016-18 and a $2MM buyout on the 2019 option.
3:39pm: The Padres have officially signed free agent starter James Shields to a four-year contract that includes a club option for 2019. Shields, a client of PSI Sports Management, will reportedly receive a $75MM guarantee, with the option valued at $16MM.
Shields will earn just $10MM in 2015 before taking home $63MM over the following three seasons, a front-loaded structure that accounts for the team’s rising payroll this year. The final $2MM guarantee comes in the form of a buyout on the option. The deal does not include a no-trade clause.
This weekend, it emerged that the Padres had offered Shields a deal similar to what he’ll evidently receive, with other reporting indicating that Shields, a California native, was interested in pitching in San Diego. The Cubs, Marlins and Blue Jays had also recently been connected to Shields.
The deal continues an enormous offseason makeover for the Padres, who have added Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks to boost their offense. Shields will head a rotation that was already fairly productive in 2014, when the Padres enjoyed good seasons from Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy and Odrisamer Despaigne. Shields also improves their pitching for the future, as Kennedy will be eligible for free agency following next season and Cashner can become eligible after 2016.
Shields has excelled at or near the top of the rotations of the Royals and Rays for the better part of the past four seasons, working to a 3.17 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. Though Shields has seen his K/9 rate dip from 8.8 to 7.1 over the past few seasons, he also showed some of the best control of his career in 2014 (1.7 BB/9) and maintained his fastball velocity (92.4 mph average). Shields has been the epitome of a workhorse in Kansas City and St. Pete, topping 200 innings in eight straight seasons, including a four-year average of 233 frames.
Much has been made of Shields failing to live up the moniker by which he is perhaps better known — “Big Game James” — in the postseason. While Shields does indeed sport an unsightly 5.46 ERA over 59 career playoff innings, a sample of that size would likely be written off in a regular-season setting and isn’t large enough to use as a significant basis for judgment.
Rather, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes suggested in his free agent profile of Shields, the better question is likely whether or not Shields is truly deserving of the “ace” label that many have placed upon his shoulders. Earlier in his career, particularly in 2011, Shields looked to be just that, but his recent work — and really, his overall body of work in the Majors — is perhaps more indicative of a durable, but not-quite-elite arm that can be slotted into the “No. 2” or “No. 3” slot in a rotation. Looking at ERA estimators such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA, Shields typically falls into the mid-3.00 range that one would expect of a very quality but not front-line arm.
Of course, because he will be moving to the National League for the first time in his career and benefiting from the spacious Petco Park, it’s certainly possible that Shields will see an uptick in his strikeout rate and again produce the ace-caliber bottom-line results of which he has proven capable in the past. However, he’ll also be losing the aid of arguably baseball’s best defense and shifting to a team that has a deteriorated Kemp and an out-of-position Myers in his outfield, which could be problematic, even if he tends to induce a slightly above-average number of grounders.
Regardless of whether or not one considers Shields an ace or merely an upper-echelon starter, a pitcher of his quality was a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, which is precisely what happened. As such, the Padres will pay the steep price of surrendering their first-round pick — the 13th overall selection and one of the best non-protected picks in the draft. Unlike previous iterations of draft-pick compensation, the newest form, established in the 2012 collective bargaining agreement, calls for the Royals to receive a compensation pick at the end of the first round.
In the grand scheme, however, the Padres have added an impact player at a reasonable price. MLBTR ranked Shields the third-best free agent available this offseason, and yet his total price will be a bit more than a third of Max Scherzer‘s and about half of Jon Lester‘s. That’s partly a function of their respective ages and the structures of their contracts, but regardless, the Padres’ financial commitment to Shields should be relatively bearable even if Shields is a disappointment. The addition of a club option with a marginal buyout is also a nice feature for San Diego.
And yet, while Shields’ price tag is reasonable, it’s also a noteworthy accomplishment for agent Page Odle and PSI Sports Management at this stage of the offseason. No free agent has ever signed a deal of this magnitude after Feb. 1. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently noted, J.D. Drew held the previous record for a post-Feb. 1 contract at five years and $70MM, though that contract was reportedly agreed to months prior and slowed by medical concerns. Ubaldo Jimenez inked a four-year $50MM pact around this time last year, but Shields’ overall guarantee trumps that figure by a significant margin.
SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported the deal and option value (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported the guaranteed value of the deal on Twitter and lack of a no-trade clause (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the annual breakdown on Twitter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.