Seiya Suzuki Still “100% Committed” To Playing In MLB This Season
One of the most bizarre storylines of the ongoing lockout has been the frozen posting window for Seiya Suzuki. The star NPB outfielder was made available to big league clubs in November via the posting process, but he didn’t agree to a deal with an MLB team before the league implemented the lockout on December 2.
The league and union agreed to freeze the 30-day signing window for the duration of the work stoppage. With the lockout set to reach its three-month anniversary tomorrow, however, questions have intermittently popped up about how long Suzuki himself might want to wait. After all, he could simply choose to return to the Hiroshima Carp for the upcoming season and explore the possibility of making the move to MLB next winter.
Suzuki, though, remains intent on seeing the posting process through. Joel Wolfe, his representative at Wasserman, tells Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic that Suzuki’s thought process was unchanged by the league’s announcement that the first two series of the regular season have been cancelled (Twitter link). “Seiya is 100% committed to playing in MLB this year. He’s shown remarkable patience and resolve,” Wolfe told Baggarly.
That’s not a huge surprise, as Suzuki told Baggarly in mid-January he planned to wait things out. “I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” Suzuki said at the time. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”
Still, those comments came before the latest uncertainty regarding the MLB labor situation. In the interim, NPB has begun its preseason schedule and opens its regular season on March 25. MLB, on the other hand, won’t begin playing meaningful games until at least the second week of April. More to the point, the league’s decision to cancel some regular season action only further complicates the labor situation and figures to make the ongoing lockout more difficult to resolve. Waiting things out is no doubt an unenviable situation for Suzuki, but it seems he’s committed to doing so in order to test his ability against big league competition.
Whenever he is allowed to negotiate with teams, the righty-hitting outfielder should have a robust market. At 27, he’s among the youngest players in free agency. Scouting reports generally suggest he could be a capable everyday right fielder at the MLB level. And Suzuki’s coming off an excellent season in NPB, hitting .317/.433/.639 with 38 home runs across 533 plate appearances. The Padres, Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Red Sox and Rangers are among the clubs that have been linked to Suzuki this offseason.
Matt Shoemaker Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants
FEBRUARY 15: Shoemaker’s deal with Yomiuri is now official, according to an announcement from his representatives (on Twitter).
FEBRUARY 5: According to a Japanese-language report from Sports Hochi, Matt Shoemaker is nearing agreement on a deal with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (h/t to Sung Min Kim). If finalized, it’d be the first career stint outside of North America for the client of Beverly Hills Sports Council.
Shoemaker has pitched in the majors in each of the past nine seasons. He broke in with a one-start cameo for the Angels in 2013 but was a regular member of their starting staff over the next few years. Shoemaker worked 135+ innings every year between 2014-16, posting quality mid-rotation numbers throughout that run. Unfortunately, the righty dealt with recurring health issues over the next few seasons. He underwent surgeries to address nerve issues in his forearm during both 2017 and 2018 before suffering a season-ending ACL tear five starts into the 2019 campaign.
After returning to make six starts with the Blue Jays during the abbreviated 2020 schedule, the Michigan native signed a one-year deal with the Twins last offseason. The stint in Minnesota didn’t go well, as Shoemaker’s strikeout rate tumbled to a career-worst 14.1% while he struggled mightily to keep the ball in the yard. He was outrighted off the Twins’ 40-man roster in early July and released from Triple-A St. Paul a month later.
Late last season, Shoemaker hooked on with the San Francisco Giants on a minors deal. He fared better over nine appearances (eight starts) with their top affiliate in Sacramento. His 4.83 ERA there isn’t eye-catching, but Shoemaker both quieted his home run concerns and posted plus strikeout and walk numbers (26% and 4.3%, respectively). Nevertheless, he didn’t get a big league call with San Francisco and elected minor league free agency after the season.
Presuming a deal gets completed, Shoemaker will head to Japan owner of a 4.24 ERA/4.03 SIERA across 662 2/3 major league innings. He’ll likely take on a key rotation role with the Tokyo-based club, which has also landed recent big leaguers Gregory Polanco and Matt Andriese this winter. Shoemaker turned 35 years old in September, but given his lengthy track record, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reappear on the MLB radar next offseason if he performs well in Japan.
Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market
TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.
Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.
Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.
Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.
Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).
A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.
MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.
Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.
Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.
Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.
As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.
Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.
Wladimir Balentien Announces Retirement From NPB
Wladimir Balentien is retiring from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, the outfielder announced via Twitter. The 37-year-old is best known for setting the NPB’s single-season home run record in 2013 when he slugged 60 home runs for Tokyo’s Yakult Swallows. Balentien played for 11 seasons in the NPB, suiting up for the Swallows for nine seasons from 2011-2019 and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks for the past two seasons.
Balentien, who is of Curacaoan and Dutch descent, originally signed with the Mariners as a 16-year-old amateur free agent out of Venezuela in July of 2000. He debuted as an 18-year-old in 2003 with the Mariners’ rookie ball team. As he climbed the ranks of the Mariners’ system, Balentien’s star was on the rise.
He was invited to play in the Futures Game in both 2006 and 2007, then made Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospects list prior to the 2008 season at number 93. He debuted in the bigs in 2007, going 2-for-4 in a cup-of-coffee four plate appearances over three games.
Balentien would see real playing time in Seattle the next season, appearing in 71 games for 260 plate appearances. And while he continued to slug in the upper levels on the minors – slashing .266/.354/.584 that same season in Triple-A – he hit just .202/.250/.342 with the M’s.
After struggling again through 170 plate appearances the next season, the Mariners traded Balentien to the Reds for 25-year-old right-hander Robert Manuel. Balentien seemed to hit his stride the rest of that campaign, hitting .264/.352/.427 in Cincinnati. He was just 24-years-old at the time.
And yet, that would be the last time Balentien appeared in MLB. He hit well for the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in 2010, but an outfield of Jonny Gomes, Drew Stubbs, and Jay Bruce played well enough to lead the Reds to a division title. Without an opportunity at the Major League level, “Coco” took his talents overseas, signing with the Yakult Swallows, where he would become a mainstay over the next nine seasons.
In his first season with the Swallows, Balentien led the Central League with 31 home runs. The Swallows would make the Finals, but fall to the Chunichi Dragons in six games.
Two seasons later, Balentien broke Sadaharu Oh’s record of 55 home runs in a single season, setting a new record with 60. Though a later revelation proved that a livelier baseball had been used for the 2013 season, Balentien’s record nevertheless stands today. He finished his career in Japan with a triple-slash line of .266/.370/.546 with 1,001 hits and 301 home runs.
NPB’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars Re-Sign Michael Peoples
The Yokohama DeNA BayStars have re-signed right-hander Michael Peoples to a new contract for the 2022 season, the team announced. This will be Peoples’ third season pitching with the BayStars.
Originally a 14th-round pick in the 2012 draft, Peoples posted a 4.16 ERA and a 17.3% strikeout rate over eight seasons and 779 2/3 innings in Cleveland’s farm system. Working primarily (126 of 166 games) as a starter, Peoples saw action at the Triple-A level over the last four of his seasons in affiliated ball, but never got the call to the majors. Injuries played a role, as Peoples was limited to only 133 1/3 total innings in 2017-18 and kept him from a full Triple-A season until 2019.
Over his first two seasons in Japan, Peoples spent time with both the BayStars’ NPB team and its minor league affiliate. The 30-year-old righty has a 4.55 ERA over 85 innings with Yokohama. Tyler Austin, Edwin Escobar, Fernando Romero, and Neftali Soto are some of the former MLB players joining Peoples as the non-Japanese contingent in the BayStars’ spring camp.
NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Burch Smith
The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced yesterday that they’ve signed right-hander Burch Smith. The 31-year-old elected minor league free agency at the end of the season after being outrighted off the A’s 40-man roster in September.
Smith has appeared in parts of five big league seasons, including each of the past four. He broke in with ten appearances for the 2013 Padres but didn’t make it back to the game’s highest level until 2018, when he tossed 78 innings as a Rule 5 draftee with the Royals. He managed just a 6.92 ERA that year, though, and he was cut loose at the end of the season.
The following winter, Smith latched on with the Brewers on a minor league pact. He cracked the MLB roster by May and spent a few months on the 40-man before being designated for assignment. He landed with the Giants on waivers, then was traded to the A’s over the offseason as part of an ultra-rare swap between Bay Area clubs. Smith spent two seasons with Oakland, tossing 12 innings of three-run ball during the abbreviated 2020 campaign but struggling to a 5.40 ERA over 43 1/3 innings last year.
Since returning to the majors in 2018, Smith owns a 5.78 ERA with a slightly below-average 19.9% strikeout rate across 154 2/3 innings. Until last season, though, he’d generated some decent swing-and-miss rates and he’s been quite stingy with walks over the past two years. Smith has worked exclusively as a reliever since 2018, but Lions’ general manager Hisanobu Watanabe indicated as part of the team’s press release that he’d be given an opportunity to land a spot in their starting rotation.
Seiya Suzuki Still Planning To Wait Out Lockout To Sign With MLB Club
As it has for all major league free agents, the lockout has frozen the signing process for Seiya Suzuki. The Japanese star was posted by his NPB club, the Hiroshima Carp, in late November. That opened a 30-day window for Suzuki to come to an agreement with a big league team, but MLB instituted a lockout just ten days into the posting process.
MLB and NPB agreed to freeze Suzuki’s posting window for the duration of the lockout. Now six weeks into the work stoppage with essentially no progress on key issues, questions had begun to emerge about Suzuki’s future. NPB preseason camps open February 1, and there’d been some thought that he may choose to return to the Carp if MLB and the Players Association don’t make rapid progress over the coming weeks.
Suzuki’s apparently not considering that course of action, however. In an interview with Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic, Suzuki suggested he’s content to wait out an extended work stoppage. “I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” the outfielder told Baggarly via an interpreter. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”
With ten days of the posting process already elapsed, Suzuki and his representatives at Wasserman will have 20 days after the finalization of a new collective bargaining agreement to hammer out a deal with a big league club. There’ll be no shortage of interest. Baggarly writes that between ten and twelve teams had reached out to Suzuki prior to the lockout. The Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees have all been linked to the right-handed hitter in past reports. Baggarly adds the Rays, Padres and Dodgers as teams expected to be in the mix.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR forecast Suzuki for a $55MM guarantee over five seasons. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke expressed varying opinions on his upside, but broad consensus was that he could be a well-rounded everyday right fielder in the big leagues. He’s coming off a monster showing at Japan’s top level, hitting .317/.433/.639 with 38 home runs across 533 plate appearances. That huge power production didn’t come with much swing-and-miss. He fanned in only 16.5% of his trips to the dish while walking at a robust 16.3% clip. (R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports provides some batted ball and plate discipline metrics from Suzuki’s last season in NPB).
Suzuki didn’t tip his hand regarding geographical or league preferences for his next destination. Yet he does offer some insight into his motivation for playing in the majors and on which players he models his game. Baggarly’s piece, which also includes tidbits from a few of Suzuki’s former teammates, is worth checking out in full.
Gregory Polanco Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants
Former Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco has signed with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced. It’ll be his first season with the Tokyo-based club.
News first broke of talks between Polanco and teams in the NPB back in mid-December. Polanco was not likely to get a Major League deal. Polanco has seen a once-promising career derailed by injuries that led to his release from Pittsburgh. Still just 30-years-old, Polanco will look to rebuild some value with his time in Japan.
Polanco owns a career .241/.309/.409 triple-slash line across 3,220 plate appearances, though he hasn’t been a positive contributor by rWAR since 2018. That year’s .254/.340/.499 slash (123 wRC+) feels like a distant memory, as Polanco has limped to a combined .203/.270/.364 batting line in 723 plate appearances since. His once minimal strikeout rate — he fanned at just a 14.6% clip in 2017 — has skyrocketed to 30.2% in the past three seasons.
His MLB career consists of eight seasons from 2014-2021, all with the Pirates. He did sign a minor league deal with the Blue Jays after his release in 2021, but he did not make an appearance in the bigs for Toronto. That said, he raked over 101 plate appearances in Triple-A, slashing .374/.436/.747 in that small sample. The Giants were no doubt encouraged by that showing.
NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks To Sign Tyler Chatwood
The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have reached a deal with right-hander Tyler Chatwood, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link). Chatwood elected free agency after finishing the 2021 season on a minor league contract with the Giants.
After some up-and-down years with the Cubs, Chatwood seemed to be opening a new chapter in his career as a full-time relief pitcher when he signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Blue Jays last winter. Chatwood got off to a good start with the Jays but battled some serious control issues as the year went on, leading Toronto to designate the righty for assignment and then release him in August. Chatwood caught on with the Giants on a minor league deal but only saw four innings of MLB action with San Francisco.
As a whole, Chatwood posted a 5.63 ERA over 32 innings in 2021, with a respectable 26.2% strikeout rate undermined by an ugly 14.5% walk rate. Command has been a problem for Chatwood during a large portion of his 10-year Major League career, reaching a nadir when he posted a 19.5% walk rate over 103 2/3 frames with the Cubs in 2018.
The move to Japan provides a fresh start for Chatwood as he enters his age-32 season, and it will be interesting to observe whether he works out of the Hawks’ bullpen, or if he might try to re-establish himself as a starting pitcher. At least trying to work as a starter might help raise his stock for MLB teams in the future, giving any interested clubs the option of using Chatwood as a starter, reliever, or long man.
Chatwood joins Freddy Galvis and Colin Rea as familiar big leaguers joining the Hawks this winter. Fukuoka is coming off a rare losing season after dominating Nippon Professional Baseball over the last decade — the Hawks won the Japan Series seven times between 2011-2020, including four straight titles from 2017-20.
Quick Hits: Pirates, Robinson, De La Cruz, NPB/KBO Signings
The Pirates hired Dewey Robinson as their new special advisor for pitching development, coaching and player development last week (John Dreker of Pirates Prospects was the first to report the news). Robinson played three seasons with the White Sox from 1979-81, then embarked on a long coaching career that has included stints as the White Sox bullpen coach in 1993-94 and the Astros’ pitching coach in 2008-09. Robinson also has extensive experience working at the minor league level as a coach and instructor, and has spent the last 12 years working with the Rays, serving as the club’s director of pitching development over the last two seasons.
This time in Tampa Bay overlaps with Pittsburgh manager Derek Shelton’s six years as the Rays’ hitting coach, so Shelton and Robinson very likely already have a prior connection. In the bigger picture, Robinson becomes the latest in a long line of former Rays executives, coaches, and staffers poached by other organizations looking to replicate Tampa’s success at developing young talent (and young pitching in particular). The rebuilding Pirates have a particular need for arms, as while GM Ben Cherington has done a good job of restocking the farm system during his two-plus years in Pittsburgh, position players make up the majority of the Bucs’ top prospects.
More from around the baseball world….
- Reds infield prospect Elly De La Cruz received a lot of trade attention this past summer, The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans writes, but Cincinnati “didn’t want anything to do with moving him.” De La Cruz was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, and after a solid Dominican Summer League showing in 2019, he made a big impression in his first season in the North American minor league system. The 19-year-old hit a combined .296/.336/.538 with eight home runs over 265 plate appearances with the Reds’ rookie ball (55 PA) and A-ball (210 PA) affiliates. Prospect evaluators took note of the breakout, as Baseball America (4th) and MLB Pipeline (8th) now have De La Cruz entrenched in their rankings of Cincinnati’s top prospects. BA’s scouting report notes that “there are few players in the majors or minors with three 70s on their scouting report. De La Cruz is a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus arm and plus-plus raw power.” Defensively, De La Cruz is a good athlete who might be able to remain at shortstop and could have center field potential, though he has thus far played only shortstop, third base, and some second base in his brief pro career.
- MLBTR’s readers have surely noticed the number of recent posts on this site about players signing or re-signing with Nippon Professional Baseball or the KBO League. While it may seem like more players than ever are heading overseas, the volume of NPB/KBO transactions is more a product of “how there’s no MLB activity going on to otherwise overshadow these moves” than a true increase in players signing outside of North America, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports writes. It would still be very unlikely to see a truly major name head for Japan or South Korea, as an agency source tells Anderson that “the uncertainty surrounding what the market is going to look like post-lockout is the clearest reason why some of these fringe players are going overseas….the marginal types have zero leverage and teams are going to move through that group of players quickly so more guys are seeking security.” It is also worth noting that notable players were becoming more open to foreign leagues long before the lockout or even the pandemic (i.e. Adam Jones’ two-year, $8MM deal with the NPB’s Orix Buffaloes in December 2019), as players increasingly see NPB and the KBO League as avenues to rebuild their stock for MLB scouts.