The Opener: World Series, White Sox, Senga
Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
As the postseason continues and the baseball world gears up for the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today across baseball:
1. The World Series Heads To Philadelphia
The World Series is set to return to Philadelphia for the first time since 2009 tonight, with Noah Syndergaard set to take on Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 3. The series is tied 1-1 after the Phillies managed a comeback from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 but were unable to do so for a second time in Game 2. With Philadelphia’s pair of aces, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, unlikely to return to the mound before Game 5, the Phillies will have to rely on their offense, a well-rested back of the bullpen, and the boost of playing front of their home crowd to overcome the Astros, who won 19 more regular season games in 2022 than Philadelphia.
2. The White Sox Are The Final Team With A Managerial Vacancy
Following yesterday’s announcement that the Royals have hired Matt Quatraro as manager, their AL Central rival on the south side of Chicago is the final team searching for a manager this season, assuming Astros manager Dusty Baker is indeed asked to return for the 2023 season. Chicago’s search for a skipper who can help the team move past Tony La Russa’s tumultuous second run as the team’s manager has lacked the clarity other managerial searches this offseason have possessed. With one of the few known interviewees in Astros bench coach Joe Espada reportedly out of the running, the only candidates known to have received interviews to this point are Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, who also interviewed for vacancies in Kansas City and Miami, and former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. White Sox GM Rick Hahn noted earlier this month that interim manager Miguel Cairo would be interviewed for the position during his end of season press conference.
3. Kodai Senga Eyes Free Agency
NPB star Kodai Senga has been expected to test international free agency this offseason for months now, and according to Jason Coskrey of The Japan Times, the right-hander has officially filed the necessary paperwork with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks to do so. Senga, who will pitch next season at age 30, figures to be one of the more intriguing options in the starting pitching market this offseason. With a phenomenal 1.94 ERA in 2022 and a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball and a splitter FanGraphs sees having “bat-missing action”, Senga figures to be given ample opportunity to establish himself in the big leagues as a quality starter, and at a much cheaper cost than the top flight free agent starters such as Carlos Rodon, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander. That cheaper cost is due to the heightened risk in his profile, however; overseas players are rarely guaranteed to see their talents carry over at the same level in the big leagues, and FanGraphs notes that it’s possible Senga may need to pitch in high-leverage relief in the majors due to the relative weakness of his cutter and slider. Still, Senga figures to generate a great deal of interest among pitching-needy teams this offseason, and his free agency should be closely monitored.
Kodai Senga To Trigger Opt-Out And Become Free Agent
Right-hander Kodai Senga is planning to trigger the opt-out in his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and become a free agent, according to a report from Sankei Sports (Japanese language link). Senga and the club agreed to a five-year extension back in December, though that contract contained an opt-out clause after the first season. Senga will be a free agent and won’t be subject to the MLB-NPB posting system. It was reported in August that Senga planned to pursue MLB opportunities this winter and it now seems he will follow through on those plans.
Senga has been with the Hawks for his entire career thus far, making his first appearance back in 2012. It has been reported for many years that he has desired to make the leap across the Pacific to join MLB, though the Hawks are known for never posting their players. Instead, Senga has had to wait until he accrued nine years of NPB service time, at which point players are allowed to become free agents. While he was one year away from the open market, he agreed to the aforementioned extension, but only with the opt-out provision in place. He earned $5.3MM in 2022 and now has a chance to substantially add to that.
Senga, who will turn 30 in January, already has a track record as one of the best pitchers in Japan in recent years. Over his 11 seasons, he’s thrown 1,089 innings with a 2.59 ERA, 1,252 strikeouts and 414 walks. In 2022, he threw 144 innings with a 1.94 ERA, striking out 156 batters against 49 walks.
A year ago, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote that Senga has “exploding” fastball movement as part of a four-pitch mix. The report doesn’t think much of the cutter or slider, with Senga’s splitter being highlighted as his best secondary pitch. Longenhagen notes that Senga has shown the ability to maintain his velocity as a starter and will likely get chances to try that in the majors, though he could also thrive as a two-pitch reliever as a fallback option.
Senga figures to be a popular target for MLB teams and not just for his talents. Players coming from overseas generally have their markets tempered slightly by the fact that they are not proven at the major league level. This year’s crop of free agents will include some elite arms like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon, with all of them sure to secure massive paydays. For teams unwilling to shop at the very top of the market, Senga will figure to be an attractive option.
Also, since the Hawks refused to post Senga and held onto him until their club control was completely exhausted, there will be no posting fee to consider. Under the posting system, the signing team has to pay the Japanese club a fee, the value of which is dependent on the size of the contract: 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. However, that won’t be an issue at all in the case of Senga, meaning any MLB team that signs him will only have to pay the strict value of the agreed-upon contract.
Hanshin Tigers To Post Shintaro Fujinami
The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to make right-hander Shintaro Fujinami available to MLB clubs this offseason via the posting system, according to a report from Kyodo News. Back in September, reports from Japan (Japanese link from Sponichi Annex and English link from The Japan Times) relayed his desire to attempt the move to North America. It now seems that the club will grant him his wish.
Fujinami, who will turn 29 in April, figures to be an interesting addition to this winter’s free agent market, though a very difficult one to predict. Going back to his high school days, Fujinami was a highly-touted young arm that was often compared to Shohei Ohtani when they were in the same draft class. Fujinami was first mentioned on MLBTR back in 2012, showcasing the hype that has followed him around for some time.
He lived up to that hype in his first few seasons but subsequently spent a long time battling control issues. (This eight-minute video from Yakyu Cosmopolitan is recommended for those who want a rundown of Fujinami’s whole career, though it was made before the 2022 season.) In 2013, Fujinami was thrown directly into the Tigers’ rotation in his age-19 campaign. He responded to that bold assignment by throwing 137 2/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 126 strikeouts, 44 walks and a couple of hit batters. He followed that up with two more excellent seasons, throwing 163 innings in 2014 with a 3.53 ERA and then 199 frames in 2015 with a 2.40 ERA.
In 2016, he was still fairly effective, but took a step back from that 2015 peak. His ERA went up to 3.25 and he walked 70 batters in 169 innings. The control issues would only grow from there, as he issued 45 walks in just 59 innings in 2017, eventually getting sent down to the minors. He’s been up-and-down between the minors and the Tigers in each season since then, struggling to earn enough trust to maintain a more permanent spot in Hanshin.
That was still the case here in 2022, as Fujinami made nine appearances down on the farm and 16 with the Tigers. In those 16 appearances for Hanshin, he logged 66 2/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 65 while walking 21 batters. He faced a total of 276 batters, meaning his walk rate was 7.6%, which is actually respectable. For reference, this year’s MLB average was 8.2%. That’s a huge improvement over 2021, where he walked 40 out of 238 batters face for a rate of 16.8%.
All of this seems to make Fujinami a high-risk, high-reward possibility for teams in free agency. On the one hand, he has hit 126 km/h (1o1 mph) with his fastball and has been elite in the past. Despite his decade-long track record, he’ll be just 29 years old next season. On the other hand, he has struggled so badly in recent years that the Tigers haven’t let him be anything more than a depth arm since 2016. There is likely to be a wide variance in how he is viewed by MLB clubs, with some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools.
Once he is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Tigers, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given to Fujinami. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Tigers a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Tigers for 2023.
NPB Pitcher Kodai Senga Expected To Explore MLB Opportunities This Offseason
Kodai Senga has been one of the better pitchers in Japan over the past decade, and the right-hander could make for an intriguing entrant onto next offseason’s MLB free agent market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last night (Twitter link) that Senga is likely to consider contract offers from major league teams over the winter. That’s not especially surprising, as he’s reportedly sought to make the jump to MLB in the past but been denied that opportunity by his NPB team, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.
Senga is a career-long member of the Hawks, with whom he has spent parts of 11 seasons. He’s tallied a bit more than 1000 innings at Japan’s highest level, pitching to a 2.62 ERA with a very strong 28.3% strikeout rate. The right-hander has a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past four seasons, including a sterling 2.05 mark across 105 1/3 innings this year. Senga has fanned 28.1% of opponents in 2022 against a fine 8.1% walk rate. Among qualified NPB hurlers, he ranks third in ERA.
Last offseason, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote that Senga has a quality four-pitch mix headlined by his fastball and split. Longehagen indicated neither of his breaking pitches (cutter or slider) were likely to be impactful offerings, but he suggested his two top pitches combined with solid control could give him a chance to start in the majors. At the time, Longenhagen placed Senga as his #4 international prospect who might be available in 2023 and beyond (and the #3 player in Japan, behind righties Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki).
Unlike Yamamoto and Sasaki, both of whom are in their early 20’s, Senga turns 30 years old in January. The 6’0″ hurler won’t be subject to the MLB – NPB posting system by virtue of his exceeding nine years of NPB service time. That allows him to explore international free agency without requiring any form of compensation on the part of major league teams to his NPB employer.
Senga has a fair bit of financial security to fall back upon. He signed a five-year contract with the Hawks last winter that reportedly guaranteed him a $5.3MM salary this season. That pact afforded Senga an opt-out opportunity after 2022 to allow him to explore MLB free agency, but it also means he can stay in a familiar setting on a multi-year deal if he doesn’t believe there’ll be MLB offers to his liking.
Shogo Akiyama Signs With NPB’s Hiroshima Carp
June 26: Akiyama has signed a three-year deal with the NPB’s Hiroshima Carp, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.
June 20: Former Reds outfielder Shogo Akiyama is headed back to Japan, Akiyama himself tells Japanese media (English languagelink via the Japan Times). A report from The Manichi in Japan suggests that Akiyama’s former team, the Seibu Lions, could have an offer waiting for him.
Originally signed by the Reds to a three-year, $21MM contract heading into the 2020 season, Akiyama was never able to replicate the star-level production he’d showed with the Lions over a nine-year career in Nippon Professional Baseball. The now-34-year-old outfielder tallied just 366 plate appearances with Cincinnati and posted an underwhelming .224/.320/.274 batting line — a far cry from the brilliant .301/.376/.454 batting line he posted in nine years with his former Seibu club.
The Reds released Akiyama partway through the third and final season of that contract, and he quickly landed a minor league deal with the Padres. Akiyama recently opted out of that contract, however, and he tells the Japanese media that his agent informed him there were no offers from big league teams. Akiyama didn’t specify whether that meant no Major League offers or no offers at all, but given that he just hit .343/.378/.529 with three homers, two doubles, a triple and a pair of steals in 16 games with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate in El Paso, it wouldn’t be a surprise if there had been other minor league opportunities available.
It remains to be seen whether Akiyama will ultimately return to the Lions, sign with another team in NPB, or simply take the remainder of the year off. However, his return and acknowledgement of a lack of MLB interest looks to have closed the door on any near-term return to North American ball. He only recently turned 34, though, so Akiyama ought to have other opportunities to add to an impressive collection of accolades in Japan, where he’s a six-time Gold Glove winner and five-time NPB All-Star.
Conner Menez To Sign With NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters
Left-hander Conner Menez is in agreement with the Nippon-Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the club informed reporters (Japanese-language link from Yahoo! Japan). Menez announced the agreement on Instagram this afternoon.
While Menez had been playing with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, he’s been granted his release to pursue the overseas opportunity. Salary terms have not been disclosed, but he’ll surely make more with the Hokkaido-based club than he would’ve in Iowa.
Menez made the briefest of appearances with the Cubs this season. Signed to a minor league deal over the offseason, he was selected onto the major league roster in early May. He pitched a scoreless inning during a loss to the Diamondbacks a few days later, then found himself optioned back to Iowa. The Cubs designated him for assignment two weeks back upon selecting Caleb Kilian onto the 40-man roster. Menez cleared waivers and returned to Triple-A, making three more appearances before departing the organization.
The former 14th-round pick had an excellent showing in the upper minors this season. He tallied 21 innings across 11 outings, working to a 2.14 ERA with a quality 28.7% strikeout rate. That work caught the attention of the Fighters’ front office. In announcing the agreement, general manager Atsunori Inaba suggested he would step into a high-leverage relief role.
Menez has appeared in parts of four MLB seasons, spending the 2019-21 campaigns with the Giants before this year’s cup of coffee in Chicago. He’s worked to a decent 3.95 ERA through 43 1/3 innings at the big league level, but his stock took a hit when he struggled in Triple-A last season. Menez’s much better showing in Iowa gets him an opportunity in Japan’s top league. Having just turned 27 years old, he’s certainly young enough to reappear on the MLB radar a year or two down the line if he shows well in NPB.
Dodgers Select Stefen Romero
4:54pm: Los Angeles officially announced Romero’s promotion, with corner infielder Edwin Ríos moving from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. Ríos suffered a right hamstring tear and has been out since June 3. The transfer is backdated to the time of his initial IL placement, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until the first week of August.
8:38am: The Dodgers plan to select the contract of outfielder Stefen Romero on Wednesday, reports J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. He’ll take the place of infielder Hanser Alberto, who is being placed on the paternity list. It’ll be Romero’s first big league appearance since 2016, capping a six-year odyssey that’s taken him around the world.
Once one of the Mariners’ most promising outfield prospects, Romero made his big league debut as a 25-year-old back in 2014 but scuffled to a .192/.234/.299 output over the course of 72 games. He saw more limited Major League time in each of the next two seasons in Seattle, but despite consistently laying waste to Triple-A pitching, he received only sparse looks and never produced much in those infrequent opportunities.
Following the 2016 season, the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball approached Romero and the Mariners about a potential opportunity, and the M’s granted a then-28-year-old Romero his release in order to sign overseas. Romero was an instant success in Japan, hitting .274/.330/.508 with 26 home runs in the first of would wind up being five seasons in NPB. His second year with the Buffaloes wasn’t as strong, but Romero hit .305/.363/.539 in his third season year with Orix. He then signed on with the Rakuten Eagles for a year and turned in a similarly hearty .274/.354/.539 line during the 2020 campaign.
A return endeavor with the Buffaloes in 2021 lasted just 31 games, but Romero’s five-year stint in NPB nevertheless finished with a solid .264/.331/.497 batting line to go along with 96 home runs, 67 doubles and four triples. He inked a minor league deal with the Dodgers this offseason in hopes of securing a return to the big leagues, and he’ll now realize that dream after beginning the season with a .270/.337/.461 showing in Triple-A Oklahoma City.
It’s possible that this will prove to be a short stay on the big league roster for Romero. Alberto’s stay on the paternity list will be between one and three days, and Romero is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent back down without first being passed through outright waivers.
The Dodgers do have a need for a right-handed-hitting outfielder at the moment, however, as they’re trying to cobble together a right field platoon while Mookie Betts mends from a cracked rib. They reacquired Trayce Thompson yesterday and appear set to give him the first shot at serving as Eddy Alvarez‘s platoon partner, but Romero is also a righty stick who can slot into right field. He’s managed just a .219/.278/.344 slash against lefties in 2022, but that’s come over just 36 plate appearances, so it’s hard to glean much from such a minuscule sample.
Even if it’s a brief stay in the big leagues this time around, today will surely be a day to remember for Romero, whose last MLB appearance came on Aug. 19, 2016 — when he was summoned to the Majors for one game (his lone Major League appearance of that season’s second half). But with the Dodgers’ outfield and bench situations currently in something of a state of flux, it’s at least possible he’ll have the opportunity to carve out a role — at least while Betts is sidelined.
Roberto Osuna Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines
Reliever Roberto Osuna has signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced yesterday. Mexican publication Beisbolpuro first reported the agreement (Twitter link) last week.
Osuna has spent the 2022 season playing in the Mexican League, where he’s appeared in 12 games with the Diablos Rojos del México. He tossed 13 1/3 innings of three-run ball, striking out 15 batters and collecting six saves. That strong work caught the attention of the Marines, who figure to install Osuna at the back end of their bullpen.
The 27-year-old hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2020, when he was outrighted off the Astros roster. Osuna had missed much of that season with an elbow injury that limited him to four appearances. That malady initially came with a recommendation he undergo Tommy John surgery, but a second opinion suggested he could rehab without going under the knife. He’s spent the past couple seasons pitching in Mexico and seems to have recovered from the elbow issue, considering how effective he’s been for the Diablos Rojos.
Of greater import is that Osuna served a 75-game suspension in 2018 for violating the MLB – MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy. A member of the Blue Jays at the time, he was arrested in Canada and charged with the assault of his then-girlfriend. He later agreed to a one-year peace bond, with the alleged victim withdrawing the charges to resolve the criminal case.
Per the Canadian Department of Justice’s web site, peace bonds are generally used when “an individual (the defendant) appears likely to commit a criminal offence, but there are no reasonable grounds to believe that an offence has actually been committed.” The Canadian Department of Justice further adds that peace bonds are obtainable by “any person who fears that another person may injure them, their spouse or common-law partner, or a child, or may damage their property.”
The Astros acquired Osuna from Toronto at the 2018 trade deadline while he was in the midst of serving his suspension. He posted excellent numbers, tossing 103 innings of 2.53 ERA ball with a 26.1% strikeout rate through the end of 2019. He led the American League with 38 saves in 2019, his most recent full season in the majors. There’s little question of his on-field effectiveness when he’s healthy, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll get another MLB opportunity at any point down the line.
Rangers Release Joe McCarthy To Pursue NPB Opportunity
The Rangers released outfielder Joe McCarthy this week, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that McCarthy was granted an out after agreeing to a deal with a team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Last week, Sports Hochi in Japan reported McCarthy had agreed to terms with the Orix Buffaloes. The team has yet to announce the move, but it seems the 28-year-old will head to the Osaka-based club, which has started the season 10-12.
McCarthy, the older brother of D-Backs outfielder Jake McCarthy, is a former fifth-round draftee of the Rays. Traded to the Giants at the 2019 deadline, he played in four games and tallied 10 plate appearances with San Francisco in 2020. McCarthy otherwise spent his Giants’ tenure in the minors, including a 2021 campaign where he posted an impressive .305/.384/.542 mark with 15 homers in 74 games with Triple-A Sacramento last season.
After electing free agency at the end of the year, the University of Virginia product signed a minor league deal with Texas. Despite an 8-14 showing in Spring Training, he didn’t crack the Opening Day roster. Rather than head back to Triple-A, McCarthy will make the jump to Japan’s highest level.
It’s not uncommon for players on minors deals or even at the fringes of an MLB 40-man roster to explore opportunities in other pro leagues. McCarthy’s salary has yet to be reported, but he’ll certainly make more with the Buffaloes than he would’ve spending the entire season with the Rangers’ top affiliate in Round Rock. McCarthy doesn’t have much big league experience, but he’s a career .255/.355/.464 hitter in three Triple-A seasons. If he performs well in NPB, it stands to reason he could again draw interest from MLB teams a year or two down the line.
Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market
Star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki waited out the lockout in search of a deal with an MLB team this offseason. The league and Players Association agreed to freeze his posting window during the work stoppage. The official lifting of the lockout restarted the clock, giving teams twenty days to finalize an agreement.
Suzuki has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of a dozen teams this winter, and Jon Heyman of the MLB Network lists five (via Twitter) that have been prominent players: the Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. That’s not necessarily a group of finalists, to be clear, but it seems those teams are among Suzuki’s top suitors.
Four of those clubs — Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston — have been known entrants in the bidding for some time. A report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports in January named the four clubs as among those likely to remain factors until he chooses a destination. The Dodgers, though, hadn’t been strongly linked to Suzuki until this point.
Los Angeles doesn’t necessarily have a need in the outfield. Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and AJ Pollock make for a strong starting trio, and Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux could see some action on the grass as well. The Dodgers haven’t been shy about acquiring talent even in the absence of an obvious weakness on the roster, however. And Los Angeles is clearly open to further bolstering an already strong offense, as they’re reportedly making a run at Freddie Freeman. Manager Dave Roberts isn’t afraid to move even his best players around the diamond, and the implementation of the universal designated hitter could allow NL teams to cast a wider net in search of talent.
With a little under three weeks before Suzuki has to make a decision, there still seems to be a decent array of possible landing spots. Only 27 years old, Suzuki should appeal both to win-now clubs like the Dodgers and teams (the Cubs perhaps among them) that are eyeing 2023 and beyond as more realistic windows of contention. He’s coming off a monstrous .317/.433/.639 showing with the Hiroshima Carp, for whom he’s been a strong middle-of-the-order bat in recent years. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke earlier in the offseason generally suggested Suzuki could immediately be a solid everyday right fielder in MLB.
Whoever signs Suzuki will owe the Carp a posting fee on top of the guarantee that goes to the player himself. The fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.