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Giants, Ronald Guzman Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 19, 2023 at 1:48pm CDT

The Giants have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent first baseman Ronald Guzman, as first indicated on the transaction log at MiLB.com.

Guzman, 28, was considered one of the top prospects in the Rangers organization before making his Major League debut in 2018, but he’s yet to produce much in the Majors, slashing .225/.302/.411 with a 29.2% strikeout rate against an 8.8% walk rate in 832 trips to the plate. He spent the 2022 season with the Yankees organization, mostly playing with their Triple-A affiliate, where he slashed .255/.344/.478 (116 wRC+) in 105 games and 373 plate appearances. Guzman did receive a brief look late in the 2022 campaign as the Yanks dealt with injuries, but he logged just six trips to the plate in three games and went hitless along the way.

The depth chart in San Francisco has several players ahead of Guzman at first base, including LaMonte Wade Jr. and J.D. Davis, who could share time at the position in platoon fashion early in the 2023 season. Veteran utilityman Wilmer Flores is no stranger to the position either, having logged 1627 innings at first base, including 482 frames across the past two seasons. They’ll likely be the primary options at the position. Austin Slater could be more of an emergency option as well, given his 203 career innings at first, but he’s played exclusively in the outfield dating back to the 2020 campaign.

The Giants were lacking in first base depth in the upper minors, however, and Guzman will give them an experienced player with a track record of solid production in Triple-A. He’s spent parts of five seasons at the minor leagues’ top level, tallying 1150 total plate appearances and posting a solid .280/.360/.449 batting line with a 21.1% strikeout rate, an even 10% walk rate, 34 home runs, 61 doubles and four triples along the way.

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Tigers Hire Tim Federowicz As Catching Coach

By Darragh McDonald | January 19, 2023 at 12:29pm CDT

The Tigers announced their 2023 coaching staff today, with many of the names returning from last year or already reported. The one new bit of information from today’s announcement is that Tim Federowicz has been brought aboard as a catching coach.

Federowicz, 35, will bring plenty of experience to the role, having been a big league catcher from 2011 through 2019 and working in the minors for even longer. He got into 163 MLB games over that time, suiting up for the Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Astros, Red and Rangers. He never hit much in the big leagues, producing a batting line of .192/.241/.328. However, he managed to stick around for many years as a backup catcher due to his reputation for working well with pitching staffs.

He announced his retirement from playing after the 2021 campaign and immediately jump-started the coaching phase of his career. He served as manager of the Tacoma Rainiers in 2022, the Triple-A affiliate of the Mariners. He’ll now quickly jump to a catching job in the majors after just a single season of managing in the minors.

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Detroit Tigers Tim Federowicz

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Adam Warren Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams | January 19, 2023 at 11:56am CDT

Right-hander Adam Warren confirmed to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com yesterday that he’s retired as a player after spending parts of eight seasons in the Majors (Twitter link, with video, to Hoch’s interview with Warren). Warren, who was making an appearance at Yankees Fantasy Camp, told Hoch that he’s been enjoying time with his family but also misses being around the game and would be open to “maybe getting into some kind of coaching” role in the future.

“There’s no more attempt to come back or anything like that,” Warren replied upon being asked if he’s formally put an end to his playing career. “I’m happy with it. I had a great career — didn’t really leave anything out there, so no regrets. Totally happy with it.”

Originally signed by the Yankees as a fourth-round pick out of UNC back in 2009, Warren made his big league debut as a 23-year-old in 2012 — a spot start that proved to be his lone MLB appearance that season. He made the Opening Day roster the following year, however, and quickly established himself as a pivotal swingman providing quality, multi-inning relief out of then-manager Joe Girardi’s bullpen. Warren’s official rookie season resulted in 77 innings of 3.39 ERA ball; he made two starts, finished 11 games and picked up his first Major League win, save and hold along the way, foreshadowing the jack-of-all-trades approach to pitching that he’d embody throughout his career.

Warren worked as a setup man for the Yankees in 2014, tallying 23 holds and saving three games while pitching to a sharp 2.97 ERA in 78 2/3 innings. He stepped into the rotation for part of the 2015 season and did so almost seamlessly, starting 17 games (plus another 26 relief appearances) and working to a 3.29 ERA over the life of a career-high 131 2/3 frames. His early Yankees work caught the attention of the Cubs, who acquired him that offseason in a trade that sent Starlin Castro to the Bronx.

Warren’s time with the Cubs in 2016 went poorly and proved to be short-lived, as he was knocked around for a 5.91 ERA. As the trade deadline approached, the Cubs, then hoping to bolster the roster for a World Series push (an endeavor that ultimately proved successful) quickly traded Warren … back to the Yankees, as one of four players in a package that shipped Aroldis Chapman to Chicago. Warren almost immediately righted the ship in his return to the Bronx, and he went on to have strong performances with the Yankees in both 2017 and 2018 before being traded to the Mariners, where he had a nice finish to his 2018 campaign.

Upon reaching free agency, Warren signed with the Padres, but his time in San Diego was marred by injury. After just 25 appearances, the right-hander landed on the injured list with an arm issue that ultimately proved to be a ligament tear in his pitching elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery that year, rehabbed in 2020 and eventually made his way back to the mound for a third stint with the Yankees organization — this time with their Triple-A affiliate in 2021.

Though Warren posted solid results in Scranton that season — 3.59 ERA in 57 2/3 innings — he didn’t receive a call to the big leagues. Warren told Hoch that “the velocity never came back like I wanted it to.” That season proved to be the final chapter in his playing career, as Warren didn’t suit up for the 2022 campaign and now, at 35 years old, doesn’t appear to be contemplating a comeback.

Warren’s career draws to an official close with a 3.53 ERA, a 20.9% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate, a 30-24 record, 57 holds and six saves over the course of 492 1/3 innings. He pitched for four different big league clubs, but fans will surely remember him as a versatile, quietly excellent member of the Yankees’ pitching staff who found success in just about every role asked of him. Baseball-Reference pegs his career earnings at approximately $11.5MM, and if Warren indeed plans to pursue potential coaching opportunities, there’ll surely be chances for him to add to that tally in the next phase of his career.

Yankee fans will want to check out the entire clip of Hoch’s chat with Warren, as he talks briefly about his favorite moments in pinstripes and notes that with so many great teammates over the years, “it’s just nice to be remembered” by fans with whom he interacts. That humble mentality undersells the right-hander’s importance to the Yankees’ staff during his run with the club, and it seems quite safe to say that their fans in particular will have plenty of fond memories Warren’s time in the Bronx. Best wishes to Warren and his family in whatever’s next, and congratulations on a very fine career.

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Marlins Designate Daniel Castano For Assignment

By Steve Adams | January 19, 2023 at 10:09am CDT

The Marlins have designated left-hander Daniel Castano for assignment, tweets Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base (Twitter link). Castano’s spot on the roster will go to right-hander Johnny Cueto, whose previously reported one-year, $8.5MM contract has now been made official. Cueto was formally introduced this morning at Miami’s loanDepot Park.

Castano, 28, was one of four players the Marlins acquired in the heist that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, coming to Miami alongside Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen (since traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr.) and Magneuris Sierra. The left-hander has appeared in each of the past three seasons with the Marlins, logging a combined 3.89 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work.

That solid ERA, however, has been accompanied by a 12% strikeout rate that ranks as the lowest of any pitcher in baseball dating back to 2020 (min. 80 innings). Castano has partially offset that lack of missed bats with a better-than-average 7.5% walk rate, a solid 44.7% ground-ball rate and a repeated knack for avoiding hard contact; his career 87.6 mph exit velocity, 7% barrel rate, 35.9% hard-hit rate (all as measured by Statcast) are each better than those of the average MLB hurler. Still, fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.86) and SIERA (5.28) are more bearish on the left-hander than his more rudimentary ERA.

Castano’s 12.8% strikeout rate in the big leagues this past season was right in line with his career mark, but that’s a bit odd to see, given that he also overhauled his pitch mix and experienced a sharp uptick in strikeouts in Triple-A. Castano moved away from his four-seamer and sinker in favor of a cutter that he tossed at a hefty 41% clip. In Triple-A, the shift in his repertoire perhaps contributed to a career-best 26.4% strikeout rate. That wasn’t necessarily in a tiny sample, either; Castano’s 34 Triple-A frames were almost an exact match for his 35 2/3 Major League innings. It stands to reason, then, that even if Castano won’t see his MLB strikeout rate climb to quite those same heights, there’s perhaps reason to believe there’s more bat-missing ability in the tank than he’s shown in the Majors just yet.

Unfortunately for Castano, injuries robbed him of the chance to display more of that new-look cutter down the stretch. Castano landed on the shelf with a concussion in late July after being struck in the head by a 104 mph liner, and while he was working his back from that frightening scene, the Marlins discovered a small tear in his shoulder. He didn’t require surgery but also did not pitch again in 2022.

The Marlins will now have a week to trade Castano or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will need to carry him on the roster or else try to pass Castano through waivers themselves. That said, he’s a lefty with a starter’s pedigree and some success in the upper minors, solid command and weak contact rates in the big leagues, and a somewhat intriguing new pitch that he began to lean on this past season. He can also be controlled for five more seasons. It’s certainly feasible that a pitching-needy club could place a claim or work out a small trade to acquire Castano.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Daniel Castano Johnny Cueto

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Orioles Sign Reed Garrett To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 19, 2023 at 9:13am CDT

The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve signed right-handed reliever Reed Garrett to a minor league contract. He’ll likely vie for a roster spot in big league camp this spring.

Garrett, 30, was with the Nationals organization in 2022, pitching 9 1/3 innings at the big league level and another 47 1/3 frames of Triple-A ball. He yielded an unsightly seven runs on 13 hits and eight walks during that brief Major League cup of coffee, but Garrett was quite good with the Nats’ Triple-A club, notching a 3.04 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.4% ground-ball rate.

Back in 2018, Garrett was the fifth pick in the Rule 5 Draft, going from the Rangers organization to the Tigers, where he’d make his MLB debut the following season. He tossed 15 1/3 frames with Detroit but struggled with his command and the long ball in that time, yielding 14 runs before being designated for assignment and returned to Texas.

Those brief looks in 2019 and 2022 are Garrett’s only big league experience to date, and they’ve resulted in a combined 7.66 ERA with more walks (21) than strikeouts (16) over the life of 24 2/3 innings. Obviously, those results don’t generate much cause for optimism, but Garrett has had success both in Triple-A (3.87 ERA in parts of three seasons) and during a two-year run with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (3.46 ERA in 106 2/3 frames). Between that success and Garrett’s intriguing fastball (96 mph average with above-average spin), the O’s saw enough to give the righty a chance to pitch his way into their bullpen plans during the upcoming 2023 season.

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The Opener: Pham, Lefty Relief Market, Righty Bats

By Nick Deeds | January 19, 2023 at 8:46am CDT

With a little over two months until Opening Day, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today around the baseball world:

1. Pham/Mets deal to be made official

Shortly after reports of Tommy Pham’s one-year, $6MM agreement with the Mets came in yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the signing will be made official today. The Mets currently have a full 40-man roster, so in order to make Pham’s deal official, a corresponding move will be required. The acquisition of Pham likely rounds out a bench that already sports Luis Guillorme, Darin Ruf, and Tomas Nido, likely pushing center fielder Khalil Lee down to Triple-A unless an additional move such as a trade of Ruf clears space. Such a move isn’t strictly necessary, however, because while there are no center fielders on New York’s bench, both Starling Marte and Mark Canha have center field experience despite starting in the corner spots in deference to Brandon Nimmo.

2. Is the lefty relief market about to heat up?

A fresh batch of rumors made the rounds yesterday concerning the market for left-handed relievers. Just a day after the Marlins were reported to have interest in departing Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, the Royals and Padres were added to the list of teams interested in the lefty fireballer’s services. Chapman, 35 in February, is looking to bounce back from a career-worst 4.46 ERA (88 ERA+) in 2022. Last year’s was his first below-average ERA in a career that has only seen him post a mark above 3.50 one other time, when he posted a 3.60 ERA for the Reds back in 2011.

Andrew Chafin, the top remaining reliever on the free agent market follow two excellent seasons with the Cubs, A’s, and Tigers, is reportedly seeing his market begin to heat up, with the Mets among seven teams known to be interested in his services. Earlier in the week, both Chafin and Matt Moore were connected to the Cubs, who appear focused on adding another bullpen arm ahead of Spring Training, with a preference for a lefty. Zack Britton, Will Smith, and Brad Hand are among the most recognizable lefties also still available in free agency.

3. Will the run on right-handed outfield bats continue?

Just as the stage could be set for a run on left-handed relievers, we’ve seen quite a few veteran right-handed bats come off the board this week. Andrew McCutchen’s return to the Pirates kicked things off, and it’s been followed by Adam Duvall agreeing with the Red Sox, Brian Anderson heading to Milwaukee, Tommy Pham landing with the Mets and Kevin Pillar inking a minor league deal with the Braves. Options in this regard are dwindling, but switch-hitters Jurickson Profar and Robbie Grossman remain unsigned, as do pure righties Chad Pinder, Albert Almora and Stephen Piscotty. As this subsection of the market begins to move, those names could find increased interest. Meanwhile, the trade market offers names like Michael A. Taylor (despite a lofty asking price) and Ramon Laureano (who may not be moved this offseason).

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Red Sox, Raimel Tapia Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | January 19, 2023 at 8:09am CDT

The Red Sox are in agreement with Raimel Tapia, as the free agent outfielder himself first indicated on Instagram. It’s a minor league deal for Tapia, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll be invited to the major league side of Sox camp and can make $2 million with some additional performance bonuses if he cracks the MLB roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Tapia is repped by Dream One Sports Group.

Tapia, 29 next month, joins the third organization of his professional career. The speedster first signed with the Rockies as an amateur from the Dominican Republic over the 2010-11 international period. A few years later, Tapia emerged as one of the sport’s more promising prospects. Evaluators praised his athleticism and bat-to-ball skills and suggested he could develop into a prototypical top-of-the-lineup sparkplug for Colorado.

The left-handed hitter got to the majors in 2016 but saw sporadic action for his first three seasons. He finally landed everyday playing time during the 2019 campaign and was a lineup regular for the next three years. Tapia indeed showed quality contact skills and speed at the MLB level, though he never consistently produced offensively. He owns a very aggressive approach and doesn’t have significant power, leading to an overall profile that’s heavily reliant on singles falling into play.

Tapia hit .280/.325/.395 in a little more than 1400 trips to the plate through the end of the 2021 season. Last spring, Colorado dealt Tapia to the Blue Jays for Randal Grichuk. The move balanced each club’s respective lineup, but neither player performed at a high level in 2022. Tapia posted a .265/.292/.380 line with seven home runs through 433 plate appearances, keeping his strikeouts at a modest 18.7% clip but drawing free passes less than 4% of the time he came to the plate. At season’s end, the Jays non-tendered him rather than retain him via arbitration on a salary that was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at $5.2MM.

Over the course of his career, Tapia has suited up at all three outfield positions. The vast majority of his work has come in left field, where public metrics have pegged him as a roughly average defender. Tapia has rated reasonably well in a little over 400 career innings in center but never got much run there in deference to Charlie Blackmon and George Springer, respectively.

The Red Sox have looked to stockpile up-the-middle options in the wake of Xander Bogaerts’ free agent departure and Trevor Story’s injury. The free agent center field market is extremely thin at this stage of the offseason, leaving teams to sort through imperfect defensive fits or glove-first depth players. Boston agreed to a one-year deal with Adam Duvall yesterday, adding a right-handed bat to the mix. Tapia joins Jarren Duran as a left-handed option in the center field mix, though he’ll need to earn his way onto the roster with a strong spring showing.

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A’s Reportedly Not Pursuing Ramon Laureano Trade

By Anthony Franco | January 18, 2023 at 10:49pm CDT

Over the past 18 months, the A’s have traded away most of the core players on the roster as a means of stripping down payroll. While much of that teardown was orchestrated either last offseason or at the summer deadline, it continued with the three-team deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta last month.

Given Oakland’s recent activity, it stands to reason virtually anyone on the roster with an MLB track record could be a viable trade candidate. Outfielder Ramón Laureano is one of the team’s more established remaining players and could be the subject of attention from other clubs. However, Dan Hayes of the Athletic reports the A’s didn’t show much interest in dealing Laureano after the Twins inquired on his availability.

It’d be a surprise if the A’s had anyone firmly off the table, perhaps aside from pre-arbitration players they hope will be building blocks of their next contender like Shea Langeliers and Esteury Ruiz. Nevertheless, there’s good reason for general manager David Forst and his front office to be reluctant to pursue a Laureano deal over the offseason. The 28-year-old outfielder is coming off the worst season of his career, putting his value at a low ebb.

Laureano had an impressive debut with Oakland late in the 2018 campaign. He backed that up the following season with 24 home runs in 123 games. His offensive numbers dipped during the shortened 2020 schedule but bounced back through the first few months of ’21. Laureano was sitting on a .246/.317/.443 line over his first 378 plate appearances. That’s not an eye-catching slash at first glance but marked offensive production 13 points above the league average as measured by wRC+ given Oakland’s pitcher-friendly home park.

His 2021 season was brought to an abrupt end in August after he tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug Nandrolone. That resulted in an 80-game suspension that carried over into the start of last season. Laureano returned in April but saw his production crater. He hit .211/.287/.376 over 94 games, with the batting average and on-base percentage each representing career worsts. Only in 2020 did he have a lesser slugging mark.

The residual effects of the suspension aren’t the sole possible explanation for Laureano’s down year. He carried a .223/.300/.395 line into mid-August, production that was below his previous career standards but still marginally above average after adjusting for the ballpark. He suffered a left oblique strain on August 15 and landed on the injured list. Upon returning three weeks later, he limped to a .108/.175/.216 mark in 40 trips to the dish before suffering a hamstring strain that ended his season.

Coming off that year, it’s certainly not an ideal time for Oakland to move him. Laureano’s suspension kept him from surpassing four years of service time last season — players don’t accrue service while on the restricted list — and extended Oakland’s window of arbitration control by another season. He’s eligible for arbitration through the end of 2025 and making $3.55MM for the coming season. That’s affordable even for a team that runs one of the league’s lowest payrolls. That all leaves open the potential for Oakland to hold Laureano into the coming season and reevaluate offers at the deadline after a hopeful better first half from the right-handed hitter.

Another club making a very strong offer in the coming weeks could change the calculus for Oakland, of course. It’s hard to imagine they’d steadfastly refuse to entertain any trade discussions on Laureano. Yet it’s also understandable the club doesn’t seem particularly eager to shop him with his stock at its current point. Assuming he stays in Oakland, he’ll join the likes of Ruiz, Seth Brown (if he’s not dealt himself), Cristian Pache, Conner Capel and Brent Rooker in the outfield mix.

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Details On 2022 Team Payrolls

By Anthony Franco | January 18, 2023 at 9:10pm CDT

The Mets had the sport’s highest competitive balance tax payroll in 2022, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. For CBT purposes, New York’s final tally checked in at $299.8MM. According to the report, that was around $2MM higher than the 2015 Dodgers’ $297.9MM mark that had stood as the previous spending record.

New York is responsible for a $30.8MM tax bill, the second-largest tally in the majors, after paying the tax for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers will foot the highest tax payment at $32.4MM, Blum writes. While Los Angeles’ $293.3MM CBT payroll trailed that of the Mets, the Dodgers were subject to higher penalties as a payor for a second consecutive season.

The Mets are sure to shatter their own record this coming season, as they’re currently projected for a tax number north of $368MM. The Dodgers have trimmed spending, reportedly in hopes of resetting their tax status this year in preparation for a more active offseason next winter. They’re narrowly above the lowest CBT threshold at the moment. Roster Resource forecasts the Dodgers at approximately $238MM, around $5MM north of this year’s $233MM base threshold.

As the Associated Press first reported last September, six teams went over the CBT mark in 2022. Blum reports today the specifics of the payments owed by the Yankees ($9.7MM), Phillies ($2.9MM), Padres ($1.5MM as a second-time payor) and Red Sox ($1.2MM). The final three figures, in particular, are very modest expenditures relative to club payrolls. Nevertheless, the decision to narrowly surpass the threshold is significant in that it raises penalties for payments in future seasons and alters teams’ compensation for signing or losing qualified free agents. The Padres and Phillies surely don’t have regrets after each posted one of the best years in recent franchise history, but the decision didn’t translate to success in the Red Sox’s case. Blum writes that the tax money will be paid to MLB by the end of this week.

A team’s CBT number is determined by the average annual value of a club’s commitments plus player benefits and their contributions to the new bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. The CBT figure isn’t a match for an organization’s actual player payroll in a given season. Blum reports each club’s final raw payroll figure as well, with the Mets again fronting the pack at roughly $274.9MM. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Astros and Blue Jays filled out the top ten.

On the other side, the A’s had the lowest payroll at approximately $49MM. The bottom 10 was rounded out by the Orioles, Pirates, Guardians, Marlins, Royals, Rays, D-Backs, Reds and Mariners. Full team data is available at the AP link.

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Twins Sign Chris Paddack To Extension

By Nick Deeds | January 18, 2023 at 8:22pm CDT

On Wednesday evening, the Twins announced a three-year contract with right-hander Chris Paddack. The deal covers his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and buys out what would’ve been his first free agent season in 2025. Paddack reportedly receives a $2.5MM salary for the coming season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.525MM in 2024 and $7.5MM during the ’25 campaign. The Boras Corporation client would earn an additional $500K for reaching both 140 and 150 innings in 2025, with another $750K available at the 160 and 170-inning thresholds.

Paddack, who turned 27 earlier this month, was acquired by the Twins last April in a deal with the Padres that also saw Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan change uniforms. Unfortunately for the Twins, Paddack managed just 22 1/3 innings with the club before he landed on the injured list with an elbow issue. Paddack later underwent Tommy John surgery in May, with August 2023 as the reported target for his return to big league play.

Paddack was an instant success in his 2019 debut season with the Padres, posting a 3.33 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.95 FIP across 26 starts and racked up 153 strikeouts in just 140 2/3 innings of work. The shortened 2020 season saw him struggle mightily, however, as his ERA ballooned to 4.73 (89 ERA+) and his FIP similarly rose to 5.02 across 59 innings. One factor in this was his ghastly HR/FB rate of 25.0%, nearly double his 14.6% rate from 2019.

His home run rate returned to normal in 2021, but Paddack continued to struggle. In 108 1/3 innings in 2021, Paddack posted an ERA of 5.07 (77 ERA+), the worst of his career. Paddack’s 3.72 FIP in 2021 indicates that there may have been some bad luck built into those results, but there was reason for concern nonetheless: his strikeout rate had plummeted. After striking out 9.8 batters per 9 in his debut 2019 season, that rate dipped to 8.8 in 2020 and then dipped again in 2021, all the way down to 8.2, good for a strikeout rate in just the 35th percentile that year.

Of course, it should be noted that Paddack struggled with injuries throughout the 2021 season, which certainly could have impacted his performance. Paddack spent over two months on the injured list in 2021 across three separate IL stints, suggesting he may not have been fully healthy even when he was on the mound that season. Between his youth and injury history, there’s reason to believe Paddack could return to a form more in line with his 2019 debut once he’s fully healthy, an outcome the Twins are betting on with this deal.

In extending Paddack, the Twins provide the right-hander with some security during his rehab process and return to the pitcher’s mound, while buying themselves an extra year of team control for a pitcher with substantial upside. Should Paddack return to the mound late in the season, he will join a somewhat full rotation mix that currently includes Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober. With that being said, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are all set to hit the free agent market following the 2023, leaving Paddack as a likely key cog in Minnesota’s 2024 rotation.

With four years of service time, Paddack was set to be eligible for arbitration both this offseason and next, with MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz having projected him for $2.4MM during this round of arbitration. With this deal, Paddack forgoes a potential raise through the arbitration process next year in addition to a year of free agency, though he is still set hit the market at age 30 following the 2025 campaign. A cost-controlled starter like Paddack is a huge boon to Minnesota’s payroll flexibility going forward- while their projected payroll for the 2024 season is just $65MM per RosterResource (prior to the inclusion of arb-eligible players on the roster), the Twins are, as previously mentioned, set to lose three members of their rotation this offseason, potentially in addition to two starting outfielders in Joey Gallo and Max Kepler. While youngsters like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach could step up in the outfield, it seems almost certain that the Twins will have to supplement their core in free agency next year. Cost certainty with Paddack could help them be more aggressive in making those additions and maximizing the early years of Carlos Correa’s new six-year deal with the club.

Matt Braun of Twins Daily was first to report the Twins and Paddack had agreed to a three-year contract. Dan Hayes of the Athletic was first with the $12.5MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the salary breakdown. The Associated Press was first with the specifics of the incentives.

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